plans for a euro area survey on household finance and consumption * michael ehrmann, caroline...
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Plans for a euro area survey on household finance and
consumption*
Michael Ehrmann, Caroline Willeke, Carlos Sánchez Muñoz, Philip Vermeulen
ECB
Rome, LWS Conference, 5-7 July 2007
* This presentation reflects the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the ECB or of the members of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey Network
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Main rationale for the questionnaire (1)
• Support policy analysis in all major functions of the Eurosystem
Survey provides:- Consistent cross-country picture of household
assets and liabilities- For heterogeneity of household sector; analysing
its behaviour using only macro data may be misleading
- Micro data needed to uncover structural relationships
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Main rationale for the questionnaire (2)
Provides new insights on:- vulnerability of the household sector to asset price changes
(e.g. real estate price declines and interest rate changes)- the propensity to consume out of wealth- financial integration and innovation at the retail level- the impact of aging and pension reforms on household
saving and consumption patterns.- credit constraints or other credit market imperfections
and consumption patterns- determinants of household demand for different assets (i.e.
money, stocks)
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Main rationale for the questionnaire (3)
• Some of these insights can currently be adequately obtained in some euro area countries, but euro area analysis is not possible
• Comparisons across countries are difficult or impossible due to little cross-country comparability of existing data and lack of data in some countries
• Important complement to other micro data (balance sheet data, other surveys) and euro area macro data
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Existing country surveys• Austria: (Austrian National Bank) Survey on Household
Financial Wealth in 2004• Finland: (Statistics Finland) Household wealth survey• France: ( INSEE) “Enquête de Patrimoine”• Germany: wealth module in SOEP (DIW) and SAVE• Greece: (Bank of Greece) household survey• Italy: (Banca d’Italia) Survey of Italian households’ income and
wealth• The Netherlands: (DNB) Household survey• Spain: (Banco de España) Survey of household finances• Portugal: (Banco de Portugal and the Portuguese Statistical
Institute) Survey on households’ wealth and indebtedness
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2006 Task Force
• All euro area central banks represented• Developed the rationale for the questionnaire• Reference list: a detailed set of information that
should be asked for in a questionnaire• A set of guiding principles: best practices in
survey design
Result: Governing Council decided to set up a network on HFC
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HFCN
• Network mandated by the Governing Council to develop a proposal for a survey on household finance and consumption for euro area wide application
• This proposal will include: - a common questionnaire, - modalities for its implementation- an estimate of the associated costs.
- Decision to hold the survey will be based on this proposal
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HFCN: composition
• ECB + Eurosystem National Central Banks• Participants from Eurostat, INSEE, Statistics
Finland• Consultants:
Arthur Kennickell (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)Luigi Guiso (European University Institute)Michael Haliassos (Goethe University Frankfurt)
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A common questionnaire
• Objective: one data set for the euro area– Common questionnaire (including common
ordering of questions) as far as possible, based on reference list
– Limited number of additional country-specific questions possible
– Countries with existing surveys should strive to gradually converge to the benchmark so as to improve comparability over time
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Common definitions
• Definitions should be consistent as much as possible with already existing standards and definitions, e.g. ESA95
• Consistency with other relevant European household surveys, such as EU SILC, is aimed at
• Has the advantage of enabling the interaction between micro (survey) data and macro statistics or between different sets of survey data
• Translation of common definitions into national languages will be performed in NCBs
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First draft common questionnaire
Full version covers:• core items: should be common to all country
questionnaires• non-core items: should be common to the
questionnaires of those countries that decide to also cover these items
In addition: countries may wish to add non-harmonised country-specific questions
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Outline of the Eurosystem questionnaire
Attitudes / Expectations / Confidence
Interviewer debriefing / Paradata
Payment habits
Consumption
Real assets and their financing
Other liabilities / credit constrains
Financial assets
Insurance policies and pension schemes
Intergenerational transfers
Income
General characteristics of the household
Employment
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Pre-testing/ Pilot
• Help to find out parts of the questionnaire / formulations / order of questions tricky to respondents.
• Full version of the questionnaire envisaged by summer • Over the summer and autumn of 2007, a number of
small-scale tests planned: Belgium, France, Germany and Ireland + informal pretests by some other NCBs
• Larger-scale pilot planned by Bundesbank Spring 2008
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Implementation issues/ Sample design
• Sample size (results per country versus euro area)• Sampling method• Over-sampling of wealthy households• Panel vs cross-section samples• Non-response handling• Survey frequency/timing• Survey mode/ interviewing process: CAPI/CAWI/CATI• Ex-post harmonization to be minimised by ex-ante
harmonisation
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Conclusion
• Ongoing development of Eurosystem questionnaire
• Report to Governing Council in autumn 2008
• First survey targeted in 2009?
• New information source for euro area policy makers
• Intention to make data publicly available for research and policy purposes
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Thank you for your attention