PLANNING OF SECURITY PLANNING OF SECURITY SECTOR CAPABILITIES SECTOR CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION OF FOR PROTECTION OF

MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYMARITIME SOVEREIGNTYCapt. (Navy) Capt. (Navy) Ass. Prof. PhD Ass. Prof. PhD Boyan MednikarovBoyan Mednikarov

Ass. Prof. PhD Todor TagarevAss. Prof. PhD Todor Tagarev

NATO ARWNATO ARW““SCIENTIFIC SUPPORT FOR THE DECISION MAKING IN SCIENTIFIC SUPPORT FOR THE DECISION MAKING IN

THE SECURITY SECTOR” THE SECURITY SECTOR” Velingrad, Bulgaria, 21-25 October 2006Velingrad, Bulgaria, 21-25 October 2006

The main reasons for our interest in the subject:The main reasons for our interest in the subject:► the dynamic changes of the economic, political, and military-strategic the dynamic changes of the economic, political, and military-strategic

environment in the Black Sea region after the end of the bi-polar world;environment in the Black Sea region after the end of the bi-polar world;► the membership of Bulgaria in NATO;the membership of Bulgaria in NATO;► the forthcoming accession to the EU, the forthcoming accession to the EU, which brought the need for radical rethinking of the views on maritime which brought the need for radical rethinking of the views on maritime

sovereignty of our country.sovereignty of our country.

Broader definition of maritime sovereigntyBroader definition of maritime sovereignty - the state retains the right to - the state retains the right to exercise control both on the territorial waters and the other parts of the Black exercise control both on the territorial waters and the other parts of the Black Sea where it has internationally recognized rights. Sea where it has internationally recognized rights.

The main task of the researchThe main task of the research - the adequate justification of the planning of - the adequate justification of the planning of security sector capabilities for protection of maritime sovereignty.security sector capabilities for protection of maritime sovereignty.

Sub-tasks:Sub-tasks:► developing a model for planning the national capabilities for maritime developing a model for planning the national capabilities for maritime

sovereignty protection;sovereignty protection;► testing this model and putting it into practise within the maritime institutions.testing this model and putting it into practise within the maritime institutions.

CONCEPTUAL APPROACH TO DEFINING THE CONCEPTUAL APPROACH TO DEFINING THE CAPABILITIES OF THE SECURITY SECTORCAPABILITIES OF THE SECURITY SECTOR

Analysis of thesecurity environmentSecurity sector missions,

Levels of ambition

Planning scenarios

Task lists(generic)

Mission EssentialTask List

Security SectorCapabilities

KEY FACTORSKEY FACTORS

► Objectives in the area of maritime sovereignty, including those Objectives in the area of maritime sovereignty, including those to be achieved through military means;to be achieved through military means;

► Strategy for achieving the objectives;Strategy for achieving the objectives;► Roles of the institutions, engaged in protecting maritime Roles of the institutions, engaged in protecting maritime

sovereignty;sovereignty;► Scenarios, describing plausible materialization risks and Scenarios, describing plausible materialization risks and

threats to the national interests related to the maritime space;threats to the national interests related to the maritime space;► Tasks to be performed in neutralizing the plausible risks and Tasks to be performed in neutralizing the plausible risks and

threats (often structured in a Universal Task List, or UTL);threats (often structured in a Universal Task List, or UTL);► Capabilities required to perform tasks for protection of Capabilities required to perform tasks for protection of

maritime sovereignty;maritime sovereignty;► Ways to provide these capabilities (coordination of the Ways to provide these capabilities (coordination of the

development of the variety of capability components within a development of the variety of capability components within a selected capability model).selected capability model).

FRAMEWORK PROCESS FOR FRAMEWORK PROCESS FOR CAPABILITIES DEVELOPMENTCAPABILITIES DEVELOPMENT

► Formulate the policy for protection of maritime sovereignty;Formulate the policy for protection of maritime sovereignty;► Analyse the environment and assess threats to maritime sovereignty;Analyse the environment and assess threats to maritime sovereignty;► Analyse the status of the system for protecting maritime sovereignty;Analyse the status of the system for protecting maritime sovereignty;► Define and agree on planning scenarios; formulate hypotheses for the Define and agree on planning scenarios; formulate hypotheses for the

simultaneous (or near simultaneous) occurrence of these planning situations simultaneous (or near simultaneous) occurrence of these planning situations ► Create a structured list of tasks for protection of maritime sovereignty; define Create a structured list of tasks for protection of maritime sovereignty; define

the subset of tasks that are critical for performing plausible missions in the the subset of tasks that are critical for performing plausible missions in the protection of maritime sovereignty across scenarios;protection of maritime sovereignty across scenarios;

► Define the full set of capabilities required to protect maritime sovereignty;Define the full set of capabilities required to protect maritime sovereignty;► Test the set against the hypotheses on simultaneous occurrence of two or more Test the set against the hypotheses on simultaneous occurrence of two or more

planning scenarios; planning scenarios; ► Distribute the required capabilities among organisations;Distribute the required capabilities among organisations;► Assess planning risks;Assess planning risks;► Program the development of capabilities.Program the development of capabilities.

PLANNING THE CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYPLANNING THE CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTY

Analysis of the security environment;

threat assessment

Analysis of the status of the system for

protection of maritime sovereignty

Planning scenarios; Hypotheses on

simultaneity

Task list

Capabilities to perform tasks in

scenarios

Full set of required capabilities

Distribution among organisations

Capability-oriented programming

Implementation of capability

development programs

Capability gaps;Risk assessment

Ongoing analysis and assessment

Test for simultaneity

Formulation of policy for protecting

maritime sovereignty

Resource allocation

Programming

Monitoring

Long-term planning

Implementation

TESTING THE MODEL IN PRACTICETESTING THE MODEL IN PRACTICE

1. Formulating of the national policy for protection of 1. Formulating of the national policy for protection of maritime sovereignty:maritime sovereignty:

► The main problem was identified: the lack of The main problem was identified: the lack of coordination among the different institutions coordination among the different institutions responsible for the protection of the national interests in responsible for the protection of the national interests in the Black sea region. the Black sea region.

► the first step was to define the scope of the term the first step was to define the scope of the term ‘maritime sovereignty’ ‘maritime sovereignty’

► the next step was to formulate the objectives of the the next step was to formulate the objectives of the policy for maritime sovereignty protection, which policy for maritime sovereignty protection, which include the protection of all the aspects of the national include the protection of all the aspects of the national interests, the enforcement of the provisions of interests, the enforcement of the provisions of international and national maritime law, the defence of international and national maritime law, the defence of the Black Sea coast, etc. the Black Sea coast, etc.

LEVELS OF AMBITIONLEVELS OF AMBITION

► To protect the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the country To protect the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the country from seaside aggression, including neutralisation of terrorist activities from seaside aggression, including neutralisation of terrorist activities in the territorial waters;in the territorial waters;

► To protect the outer borders of the European Union in the Black Sea;To protect the outer borders of the European Union in the Black Sea;► To prevent acts of violation of international and national law, related To prevent acts of violation of international and national law, related

to the use on the national maritime space;to the use on the national maritime space;► To guarantee security and safety of shipping in the territorial sea and To guarantee security and safety of shipping in the territorial sea and

the internal waterways;the internal waterways;► To react adequately in emergencies in the national maritime spaces To react adequately in emergencies in the national maritime spaces

with primary goal to prevent casualties and to minimise material with primary goal to prevent casualties and to minimise material losses;losses;

► To preserve the ecological balance of the sea and safeguard its life To preserve the ecological balance of the sea and safeguard its life resources;resources;

► To conduct an active policy for upholding the peace and security in To conduct an active policy for upholding the peace and security in the region and to enhance the international cooperation on key the region and to enhance the international cooperation on key humanitarian and law enforcement issues.humanitarian and law enforcement issues.

NEXT STEPSNEXT STEPS

► Analysis of the participation of the Republic of Bulgaria in Analysis of the participation of the Republic of Bulgaria in a variety of international initiatives in the Black sea region– a variety of international initiatives in the Black sea region– this analysis proved the fact that the increased number of this analysis proved the fact that the increased number of activities enhances the security within the region. activities enhances the security within the region.

► Evaluation of the ways and the level Evaluation of the ways and the level ofof providing resources providing resources for the maritime institutions - this showed that the situation for the maritime institutions - this showed that the situation was not very optimistic although it can be improved by was not very optimistic although it can be improved by actively utilising the funds provided by the EU. actively utilising the funds provided by the EU.

► Analysis of the environment where the protection of Analysis of the environment where the protection of maritime sovereignty is realised. As a result, the main maritime sovereignty is realised. As a result, the main threats for the sea-related national interests of the Republic threats for the sea-related national interests of the Republic of Bulgaria were identified.of Bulgaria were identified.

MAIN THREATSMAIN THREATS ► Armed aggressionArmed aggression► Violation of the safety of shipping and other regulationsViolation of the safety of shipping and other regulations► Trafficking in human beings and illegal emigration by seaTrafficking in human beings and illegal emigration by sea► Trafficking in narcoticsTrafficking in narcotics► SmugglingSmuggling► Trafficking in weapons and military technology, including WMD Trafficking in weapons and military technology, including WMD

componentscomponents► Illegal or indiscriminate use of the bio-resources of the seaIllegal or indiscriminate use of the bio-resources of the sea► Maritime terrorismMaritime terrorism► PiracyPiracy► Maritime pollutionMaritime pollution► Information security threatsInformation security threats► Incident on a vessel or aircraft endangering the life of the Incident on a vessel or aircraft endangering the life of the

crew/passengerscrew/passengers► Geology-, hydro-geology-, or weather-induced contingencyGeology-, hydro-geology-, or weather-induced contingency

ANALYSIS OFANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE THE CURRENT STATE OF THE

SYSTEM FOR PROTECTION OF MARITIME SYSTEM FOR PROTECTION OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYSOVEREIGNTY

►Bulgarian Navy and Air ForceBulgarian Navy and Air Force►Border PoliceBorder Police►Maritime and Port Administration Executive Maritime and Port Administration Executive

AgenciesAgencies►Other organisationsOther organisations

We can sum up that their capabilities leave a lot to We can sum up that their capabilities leave a lot to be desired.be desired.

DEFINITION OF THE PLANNING SCENARIOS, DEFINITION OF THE PLANNING SCENARIOS, RELATED TO THE PROTECTION OF MARITIME RELATED TO THE PROTECTION OF MARITIME

SOVEREIGNTYSOVEREIGNTYscenario Content Scenario # 1 Armed aggression against the country, related to the

national maritime spaces (NMS) Scenario # 2 Intentional violation of the safety of shipping and other

legal requirements in the national maritime spaces Scenario # 3 Terrorist or pirate attack on a vessel or harbour facility Scenario # 4 Illegal trafficking in weapons, military and dual-use

technologies, including WMD components, of drugs, and goods

Scenario # 5 Trafficking of people and illegal immigration through the sea

Scenario # 6 Illegal use of the bio-resources of the national maritime spaces

Scenario # 7 Pollution of the maritime environment (intentional or as a result of natural disasters or industrial incidents)

Scenario # 8 Incident on a ship or aircraft within the national SAR region, especially one endangering the life of passengers and crew

Scenario # 9 Natural disaster – strong earthquake or hurricane Scenario # 10 Information incursion, e.g. cyber attack

12 hypotheses for the simultaneous occurrence of the scenarios were formulated.

FORMULATION OF STRUCTURED LIST FORMULATION OF STRUCTURED LIST OF THE TASKS OF THE INSTITUTIONS OF THE TASKS OF THE INSTITUTIONS

RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROTECTION OF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROTECTION OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYMARITIME SOVEREIGNTY

Two existing approaches to this were analysed: Two existing approaches to this were analysed: ►developing a universal task list (the approach developing a universal task list (the approach

used by the Armed Forces of the US, United used by the Armed Forces of the US, United Kingdom and Canada) Kingdom and Canada)

► the approach used by the Department of the approach used by the Department of Homeland Security of the USHomeland Security of the US

In result, we agreed on the following structure of In result, we agreed on the following structure of the tasks of the maritime institutions:the tasks of the maritime institutions:

1. Management of the Maritime Security 1. Management of the Maritime Security Organisations as part of the security sectorOrganisations as part of the security sector

1.1. Management of the Maritime Security Organisations (MSO)1.1. Management of the Maritime Security Organisations (MSO) 1.1.1. Planning the development of the Maritime Security Organisations (MSO)1.1.1. Planning the development of the Maritime Security Organisations (MSO)1.1.2. Resource Management1.1.2. Resource Management1.1.2.1. Human Resource Management: education, qualification, certification1.1.2.1. Human Resource Management: education, qualification, certification1.1.2.2. Acquisition Management1.1.2.2. Acquisition Management1.1.2.3. Finance Management1.1.2.3. Finance Management1.1.2.4. Crisis Resource Management1.1.2.4. Crisis Resource Management1.1.3. Training and exercises of the Maritime Security Organisations (MSO) 1.1.3. Training and exercises of the Maritime Security Organisations (MSO) 1.1.4. Lessons Learned1.1.4. Lessons Learned1.2. Coordination, Command and Control of the Maritime Security Organisations1.2. Coordination, Command and Control of the Maritime Security Organisations1.2.1. National and international planning for protection of the maritime security1.2.1. National and international planning for protection of the maritime security1.2.2. Operations planning1.2.2. Operations planning1.2.3. Command and control of forces1.2.3. Command and control of forces1.2.4. Coordinate and integrate joint, multinational and interagency support and 1.2.4. Coordinate and integrate joint, multinational and interagency support and

interaction with public organisationsinteraction with public organisations1.2.5. Conduct information operations1.2.5. Conduct information operations1.2.6. Deploy the command and control system 1.2.6. Deploy the command and control system 1.3. Support to the Maritime Security Organisations1.3. Support to the Maritime Security Organisations 1.3.1. Provide material means 1.3.1. Provide material means 1.3.2. Recover/maintain systems and equipment1.3.2. Recover/maintain systems and equipment1.3.3. Provide legal support 1.3.3. Provide legal support 1.3.4. Provide medical support 1.3.4. Provide medical support 1.3.5. Provide transportation and deployment support1.3.5. Provide transportation and deployment support

2. Prevention2. Prevention

2.1. Identify threats2.1. Identify threats2.1.1. Manage intelligence activities2.1.1. Manage intelligence activities2.1.2. Collect intelligence information2.1.2. Collect intelligence information2.1.3. Process intelligence information2.1.3. Process intelligence information2.1.4. Analyse intelligence information2.1.4. Analyse intelligence information2.1.5. Disseminate information on threats 2.1.5. Disseminate information on threats 2.1.6. Identify, inform, and report2.1.6. Identify, inform, and report

2.2. Control access 2.2. Control access 2.2.1. Inspect vessels and cargo 2.2.1. Inspect vessels and cargo 2.2.2. Monitor zones and areas2.2.2. Monitor zones and areas2.2.3. Inspect people2.2.3. Inspect people

2.3. Eliminate threats2.3. Eliminate threats2.3.1. Investigate and detain terrorist suspects2.3.1. Investigate and detain terrorist suspects2.3.2. Seize2.3.2. Seize dangerous materials dangerous materials 2.3.3. Explosive ordnance disposal 2.3.3. Explosive ordnance disposal 2.3.4. Detect and eliminate information incursion2.3.4. Detect and eliminate information incursion

3. Protection3. Protection3.1. Assess critical infrastructure and key resources and sites3.1. Assess critical infrastructure and key resources and sites3.1.1. Identify key resources and sites 3.1.1. Identify key resources and sites 3.1.2. Assess vulnerability 3.1.2. Assess vulnerability 3.1.3. Coordinate and exchange information among institutions, non-3.1.3. Coordinate and exchange information among institutions, non-

governmental organisations, and businesses on key resources and sitesgovernmental organisations, and businesses on key resources and sites3.1.4. Assess the situation3.1.4. Assess the situation

3.2. Protect forces and sites3.2. Protect forces and sites3.2.1. Adopt measures to lower/mitigate threats against sites3.2.1. Adopt measures to lower/mitigate threats against sites3.2.2. Prepare/ develop the types of defence and protection of mobile and 3.2.2. Prepare/ develop the types of defence and protection of mobile and

stationary assetsstationary assets3.2.3. Disseminate key resources and objects3.2.3. Disseminate key resources and objects3.2.4. Detect and destroy mines3.2.4. Detect and destroy mines3.2.5. Detect and seize illegal fishing devices3.2.5. Detect and seize illegal fishing devices

3.3. Lower the risks to society3.3. Lower the risks to society3.3.1. Safeguard public health3.3.1. Safeguard public health3.3.2. Provide public safety3.3.2. Provide public safety3.3.3. Prepare the public3.3.3. Prepare the public

4. Response4. Response

4.1. Assess incidents4.1. Assess incidents 4.1.1. Investigate incidents 4.1.1. Investigate incidents 4.1.2. Assess threats and consequences 4.1.2. Assess threats and consequences 4.1.3. Maintain internal communication and disseminate information 4.1.3. Maintain internal communication and disseminate information

on incidentson incidents

4.2. Limit incident consequences4.2. Limit incident consequences4.2.1. Manage incidents4.2.1. Manage incidents4.2.2. Respond to threats4.2.2. Respond to threats4.2.3. Target hardening 4.2.3. Target hardening 4.2.4. Search and rescue 4.2.4. Search and rescue 4.2.5. Fire fighting4.2.5. Fire fighting

4.3. Impact by opponents4.3. Impact by opponents4.3.1.4.3.1. TrackTrack detected ships and submarines detected ships and submarines 4.3.2. Destroy4.3.2. Destroy ships and submarinesships and submarines4.3.3. Establish defensive mine barrages4.3.3. Establish defensive mine barrages4.3.4. Detain ships 4.3.4. Detain ships 4.3.5. Antiterrorist activities 4.3.5. Antiterrorist activities

5. Recovery5. Recovery5.1. Assist the public5.1. Assist the public5.1.1. Provide pre-hospital5.1.1. Provide pre-hospital care/ support and evacuation care/ support and evacuation 5.1.2. Provide humanitarian assistance 5.1.2. Provide humanitarian assistance 5.1.3. Provide social services 5.1.3. Provide social services

5.2. Restore environment5.2. Restore environment5.2.1. Clean up contaminated sites and areas5.2.1. Clean up contaminated sites and areas5.2.2. Dispose of materials 5.2.2. Dispose of materials 5.2.3. Conduct site remediation5.2.3. Conduct site remediation5.2.4. Restore natural resources5.2.4. Restore natural resources

5.3. Restore infrastructure5.3. Restore infrastructure 5.3.1. Restore Civil Services5.3.1. Restore Civil Services5.3.2 Rebuild property 5.3.2 Rebuild property 5.3.3 Restore lifelines5.3.3 Restore lifelines5.3.4. Restore economic institutions5.3.4. Restore economic institutions

REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION

OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYOF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTY

►General (for each mission):General (for each mission): Management of the maritime sovereignty forces – Management of the maritime sovereignty forces –

managing force developmentmanaging force development Coordination, Command and Control of the Coordination, Command and Control of the

Maritime Sovereignty ForcesMaritime Sovereignty Forces C2 – communications and information supportC2 – communications and information support Logistics supportLogistics support Force deploymentForce deployment

REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYOF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTY

► Prevent:Prevent: Surveillance and detection of surface, sub-surface and aerial Surveillance and detection of surface, sub-surface and aerial

targets targets Fusion and analysis of intelligence informationFusion and analysis of intelligence information Exchange of information and cooperationExchange of information and cooperation Target identification, dissemination and reporting Target identification, dissemination and reporting Inspection of vessels and their cargoInspection of vessels and their cargo Control the traffic of vessels, cargo, passengers and personnel Control the traffic of vessels, cargo, passengers and personnel

in harbour areasin harbour areas Investigate and detain intruders, including terrorists, in Investigate and detain intruders, including terrorists, in

national maritime spacesnational maritime spaces Detect chemical, biological, radiation, nuclear, and ecological Detect chemical, biological, radiation, nuclear, and ecological

threats and effects threats and effects Detect information incursionDetect information incursion

REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYOF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTY

►Protect: Protect: Defend and protect forces and areas Defend and protect forces and areas Protect sites and critical infrastructure in the coastal Protect sites and critical infrastructure in the coastal

areaarea Detect and destroy minesDetect and destroy mines Detect and Detect and seizeseize illegal fishing gear illegal fishing gear Protect databases and computer networksProtect databases and computer networks

REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYOF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTY

► Respond:Respond: Track detected surface and subsurface vessels and aircraftTrack detected surface and subsurface vessels and aircraft Destroy surface and subsurface vessels and aircraft Destroy surface and subsurface vessels and aircraft Set defensive mine barragesSet defensive mine barrages React to a terrorist attack against a vessel and a harbour React to a terrorist attack against a vessel and a harbour

facilityfacility Rescue hostagesRescue hostages Search and rescue at seaSearch and rescue at sea Fight fires at seaFight fires at sea Evacuate and provide pre-hospital careEvacuate and provide pre-hospital care

REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION REQUIRED CAPABILITIES FOR PROTECTION OF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTYOF MARITIME SOVEREIGNTY

►Recover:Recover: Limit a pollution source/spill Limit a pollution source/spill Decontamination of sea areas Decontamination of sea areas Assist a ship/aircraft in emergency Assist a ship/aircraft in emergency Provide humanitarian assistanceProvide humanitarian assistance

NEXT STEPSNEXT STEPS

► to suggest distribution of the capabilities among to suggest distribution of the capabilities among security sector organizations taking into account security sector organizations taking into account their traditions, experience, and current roles, with a their traditions, experience, and current roles, with a focus on cost effectiveness.focus on cost effectiveness.

► to assess the risk.to assess the risk.

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS► The problem with the lack of interagency cooperation The problem with the lack of interagency cooperation

is very serious and it must be made central for the is very serious and it must be made central for the maritime policy of the country.maritime policy of the country.

► The wide array of tasks related to the protection of The wide array of tasks related to the protection of maritime sovereignty requires that that the activities maritime sovereignty requires that that the activities should be systematized and specified.should be systematized and specified.

► The defining of the maritime sovereignty protection The defining of the maritime sovereignty protection capabilities must be based on the particular tasks capabilities must be based on the particular tasks carried out within the particular scenarios.carried out within the particular scenarios.

► The suggested distribution of the capabilities reflects The suggested distribution of the capabilities reflects their current state in the maritime institutions.their current state in the maritime institutions.

► The main purpose of risk assessment is to evaluate the The main purpose of risk assessment is to evaluate the extent to which the planned capabilities will be extent to which the planned capabilities will be adequate to the possible future requirements for the adequate to the possible future requirements for the maritime institutions.maritime institutions.