planning for the future - watford-city.k12.nd.us
TRANSCRIPT
PowerPoint PresentationV is
u al
iz in
g Su
cc es
sDiscussion Points
Key Considerations
Sophisticated Forecast Model (SFM)
Yield Rate of Students
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North
Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin
Clay Guthmiller Education Planner
Craig Menozzi Education Planner
Brandon Sylvester GIS Analyst, GISP Candidate
Robert Schwarz CEO, AICP, REFP, ALEP, CEFP
Educators
Planning
Expectations
Below are some key points to think about as you examine how the analysis looked at creating a
planning tool for making decisions:
Project timeline a result of ensuring student data could represent as close as possible the Official Count
with attributes that would allow RSP to forecast enrollment at a parcel level geography
The findings were not focused on supporting or contradicting any past internal or outsourced studies –
the analysis is based on data, data, and more data
The study factored in many different data sets to provide data driven analysis that is the foundation to the
RSP Statistical Forecast Model (SFM)
Enrollment change in the community is influenced by but not limited to: the birth rate, demographics,
types of development, and housing affordability
The study does not provide specific information about which site would be best suited for a new facility or
for that matter should the district build any new facility – this analysis is one portion of how to make that
decision
This analysis is based on the same grade configuration and educational programming expectations the
patrons have for each student
Projecting enrollment is not a science – like life in general some assumptions happen that may lead to
greater enrollment while others toward a smaller enrollment
The goal of this study is to help the board, administration, and public understand how to make the best
decision for the students at the classroom level
Part One: Enrollment &
Enrollment Projections – Ten Year Outlook:
District increases by nearly 2,000 students (+102.9%) (+6.4% to +8.2% a year)
Elementary (K-2) increases by about 500 students (+91.5%) (+3.9% to +12.2% a year)
Middle School (3-6) increases by nearly 600 students (+88.6%) (+2.5% to +9.2% a year)
High School (7-12) increases by about 900 students (+123.5%) (+5.9% to +10.7% a year)
Capacity over the next five years:
Pressures are alleviated with the opening of the Fox Hills Site elementary in 2020/21
Without that school coming online and maintaining the same grade configuration the intermediate
and the high school would not have the needed capacity for students
Plans will need to be made for additional elementary capacity
Development Opportunities:
Significant areas of vacant land that when they are developed will have a drastic effect on future
enrollment
With the limited residential development that has happened in the last couple of years, combined
with the increased job market, without new development it will be difficult to have enrollment
increases
The planned six million dollar incentive package to build housing should result in more residential
building activity happening as soon as the spring of 2020
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Municipality Limits Arnegard (Pink)
Natural Features (Rivers and Creeks)
Manmade Features (Railroad and Streets)
Attendance Areas
for demographic, development, and enrollment
data sets
Detailed Planning Areas
Zoomed in view of Planning Areas (Blue Line) and Southeast Elementary
Displays the power of GIS data & Information
See where students are located (color dots) in relation to streets, subdivisions, and parcels
Illustrates how the planning areas are tied to development types at the parcel level
12
Sophisticated Forecast Model This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening
in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate
enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s report and maps to better
understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects.
Built-Out
Developing
Where:
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Sophisticated Forecast Model
The important factor concerning the RSP SFM is that it is a Social Science not an exact
science; it identifies behavior trends to determine the propensity of them to be
recreated:
The value of the RSP SFM is how our team creates and analyzes the geography at a
planning area level for any commonality which will help produce an accurate forecast
Some of the variables examined for each planning area (but not limited to):
Natural Cohort (District data)
Planning Area Subdivision Lifecycle (RSP variable)
Value of Homes (County assessor data)
Type of Residential unit (SF, MF, DUP, TH, Resort, etc.) (County assessor data)
Year units were built (County assessor data)
Estimated female population (Census data)
Estimated 0-4 population (Census data)
Existing Land Use (County and City data)
Future Land Use (County and City data)
Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) (County and City data)
Future Developments (County and City data)
In-Migration of students (District data)
Out-Migration of students (District data)
14
Density weighted by land area of each Block Group
Red areas have greatest density, Blue have the least
This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment
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Density weighted by land area of each Block Group
Red areas have greatest density, Blue have the least
This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment
District Demographics
Population Annual Rate; Percentage Change
Housing Annual Rate; Percentage Change
Income Per Capita; Percentage Change
Workforce Unemployment Rate
2019-2024: 0.04% Increase
NOTES:
faster rate than the previous five
years.
indicate a general housing
known in these numbers or how
affordable the units are so more
analysis required.
same through 2024.
U.S. average.
What does this mean? Demographic attribute information is mostly consistent between the geographies
Unemployment in the district is the lowest of all the geographies
McKenzie County & Williston Public School Districts have comparable Average Household Size
Median Income is much higher than the State of North Dakota of $60,996
Housing vacancy rate is higher than the State of North Dakota average of 12.5%
Source: US Census 2019
Dunn
County
McKenzie
County
Average Household Size 2.39 2.36 2.32 2.44 2.56 2.30
Median Age 44 37.4 42.9 46.2 39.9 38.1
Total Population 9,383 29,401 4,725 4,285 16,013 788,958
Median Household Income $91,314 $82,043 $85,338 $70,471 $78,262 $60,996
Total Housing Units 4,902 14,208 2,395 2,551 7,898 379,660
Owner Occupied Housing Units 2,767 6,622 1,298 1,195 3,996 207,051
Renter Occupied Housing Units 1,118 5,695 714 509 2,194 125,002
Vacancy Rate 20.7% 13.3% 16.0% 33.2% 21.6% 12.5%
Ethnicity McKenzie County
Dunn
County
McKenzie
County
American Indian/Alaskan 0.2% 5.0% 0.2% 9.6% 9.1% 4.8%
Asian 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6%
Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Other Race 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Two or More Races 1.6% 5.3% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% 2.0%
Hispanic 3.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.1% 7.9% 3.7%
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Smallest class in 2019/20 – 12th grade (84)
Graduating senior class smaller than the incoming Kindergarten class
In future years, if residential development happens more grades will likely be greater than 200
students
Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total
2004/05 32 26 42 36 43 33 59 47 52 42 59 56 53 580
2005/06 26 33 26 43 34 43 30 62 44 52 43 57 49 542
2006/07 37 28 30 28 44 29 45 32 63 47 54 43 55 535
2007/08 38 39 30 33 32 41 34 48 34 60 43 55 44 531
2008/09 38 40 35 30 29 36 41 36 50 36 63 39 48 521
2009/10 40 40 41 39 34 34 39 43 37 49 42 59 40 537
2010/11 44 48 41 39 45 37 32 43 47 45 55 43 62 581
2011/12 65 51 65 54 50 59 49 45 57 45 51 63 44 698
2012/13 78 79 67 72 69 67 65 67 53 73 61 57 59 867
2013/14 125 109 91 91 84 94 74 84 87 66 81 64 55 1,105
2014/15 132 135 128 101 104 102 105 89 90 96 68 81 71 1,302
2015/16 128 145 133 121 102 99 99 105 85 82 84 65 68 1,316
2016/17 123 127 121 133 123 106 107 103 111 85 96 82 62 1,379
2017/18 145 127 146 129 141 123 98 113 109 119 94 96 75 1,515
2018/19 194 164 155 171 140 161 146 121 123 136 113 98 92 1,814
2019/20 186 179 165 159 172 154 148 145 117 153 118 112 84 1,892
Source: McKenzie County School District #1
Enrollment By Grade
Largest average K-12 class increase – 8th to 9th grade (+21)
Largest average K-12 class decrease – 11th to 12th grade (-8)
The cohort’s with the red circle indicate a different cohort result than what has been
experienced the last few years – illustrating transiency factors Current Kdg to 1st , 1st to 2nd, 2nd to 3rd, 3rd to 4th,5th to 6th , 6th to 7th, 7th to 8th, 9th to 10th, and 11th to 12th
smaller increases or decreases are something new and should be monitored
Change By Grade from the Previous Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
From To K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Change Percent
2004/05 2005/06 -6 1 0 1 -2 0 -3 3 -3 0 1 -2 -7 -38 -6.6%
2005/06 2006/07 11 2 -3 2 1 -5 2 2 1 3 2 0 -2 -7 -1.3%
2006/07 2007/08 1 2 2 3 4 -3 5 3 2 -3 -4 1 1 -4 -0.7%
2007/08 2008/09 0 2 -4 0 -4 4 0 2 2 2 3 -4 -7 -10 -1.9%
2008/09 2009/10 2 2 1 4 4 5 3 2 1 -1 6 -4 1 16 3.1%
2009/10 2010/11 4 8 1 -2 6 3 -2 4 4 8 6 1 3 44 8.2%
2010/11 2011/12 21 7 17 13 11 14 12 13 14 -2 6 8 1 117 20.1%
2011/12 2012/13 13 14 16 7 15 17 6 18 8 16 16 6 -4 169 24.2%
2012/13 2013/14 47 31 12 24 12 25 7 19 20 13 8 3 -2 238 27.5%
2013/14 2014/15 7 10 19 10 13 18 11 15 6 9 2 0 7 197 17.8%
2014/15 2015/16 -4 13 -2 -7 1 -5 -3 0 -4 -8 -12 -3 -13 14 1.1%
2015/16 2016/17 -5 -1 -24 0 2 4 8 4 6 0 14 -2 -3 63 4.8%
2016/17 2017/18 22 4 19 8 8 0 -8 6 6 8 9 0 -7 136 9.9%
2017/18 2018/19 49 19 28 25 11 20 23 23 10 27 -6 4 -4 299 19.7%
2018/19 2019/20 -8 -15 1 4 1 14 -13 -1 -4 30 -18 -1 -14 78 4.3%
3-Yr Avg 21.0 2.7 16.0 12.3 6.7 11.3 0.7 9.3 4.0 21.7 -5.0 1.0 -8.3 171.0 11.3%
3-Yr Wavg 16.0 -0.5 13.0 11.7 5.5 13.7 -0.2 8.2 2.3 25.3 -9.5 0.8 -9.5 161.3 10.4%
Source: McKenzie County School District #1
Total
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not attending in 18/19 as Kdg-11th grade
Provides insight into where new students
households are choosing to live
323 new students in 2017/18
469 new students in 2018/19
368 new students in 2019/20
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grade that did not attend in 19/20 as 1st-12th grade
Provides insight into where the leaving student
households were living
Total Migration +59
Total Migration +187
Total Migration -10
22
Student Count Change Depicts student movement at each Planning Area from 2015/16 to 2019/20
Orange areas experienced an increase since 2015/16
Green areas experienced a decrease since 2015/16
White areas had no net change of students between 2015/16 to 2019/20
New developments have a greater propensity to have more students in future years
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Student “Heat” Density
Red areas depict highest density of students, Gray as lowest student density
Overlapping points (2 or more students) are handled using a weighting of coincident points
Newer developments and/or most affordable areas tend to have the greatest density
Some new areas do not necessarily lead to similar yield rates of like developments
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The district has maintained contiguous boundaries for elementary schools
RSP & Associates monitors over 250 planning areas for demographic, development, and enrollment data sets
Direct correlation between women in child bearing ages (15-49) and where children (0-4) reside (monitoring demographic impact of millennials)
Enrollment tends to increase from grade to grade each year at each level
Large increases happen from 8th to 9th grade
Large decreases happen from 11th to 12th grade
2019/20 saw several grades have a cohort decrease (This happened in 2015/16)
Larger elementary school grades of 200 students will result in future larger Middle and High school grades
Greatest student density on Main Street and the Hunters Run area
Least student density in rural areas of the district
The slowdown in housing makes it a challenge for new households to find affordable homes or the type of housing they would like to ultimately reside in
Part Two: Development
Source: Census Estimates, Watford City, McKenzie County School District #1 Enrollment and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
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Graphic Explanation Census data indicates an increasing population (Forecasted to increase annually 8.69%)
Households moving into the district appear to have more children which are school aged
Families making choices to live where jobs are, meaning living in multi-family housing
Building trend indicates there has been steady new residential activity (Anticipated to increase)
Census data indicates in 2018 there is a 20.7% vacancy
Increase from 2012 to 2015 were the multi-family residential units that came online
New single-family development is not keeping pace with demand
Anticipating more single-family development happening in the next few years
Student Enrollment growth has remained positive the last ten+ years (Continued increases)
Larger elementary grades will likely mean greater enrollment at the middle and high school grades
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Single-Family Table Explanation Depicts elementary (K-5) enrollment and the corresponding yield rate for the last fifteen years
Single-Family residential yield rate average has decreased over the past decade
Adding newer housing inventory typically can increase the yield rate – type of housing must be
monitored
From 2004 to 2019 there were approximately 1,900 single family units added to the building inventory
Multi-Family Table Explanation
Multi-family consists of any residential unit that would be classified as Townhome, Duplex, Apartment,
and mobile home – basically everything other than single-family
Multi-Family has decreased near half over the past decade
Multi-Family residential average (.19) has a lower student yield rate when compared to Single-Family
residential (.32) within the district
From 2004 to 2019 there were approximately 5,300 multi-family units added to the building inventory
Single-Family (SF)
Multi-Family (MF)
Schools 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Avg
District (K-12): 0.39 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.24 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.3 0.31 0.32
Source: McKenzie County School District, McKenzie County, & Watford City
Schools 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Avg
District (K-12): 0.32 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.13 0.1 0.12 0.13 0.17 0.18 0.19
Source: McKenzie County School District, McKenzie County, & Watford City
Other Enrollment Trends
Timing of Feeder Change Discussion
Graphics below show the migration patterns of students for the last 3 years by development type
Migration Trends 2019
Migration Trends 2017
Single Family 129 -85 44
Multi-Family 334 -186 148
Unmatched 0 -1 -1
All 469 -282 187
DevType InMigration OutMigration NetMigration
Multi-Family 228 -151 77
Unmatched 4 -6 -2
All 323 -264 59
DevType InMigration OutMigration NetMigration
Multi-Family 248 -241 7
Unmatched 10 -1 9
All 368 -378 -10
or outgoing 12th grade students (always
leave)
following school year
the following year
district
family development
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Based on assessed Home Value as provided and maintained by the county assessor’s office
Depicted by Median Value in each Planning Area
Home values likely correlated to socioeconomic status – new areas tend to be the least affordable
Areas shaded in Orange and Red have the greatest Median Home Value
Areas shaded in Blue represent the greatest affordability
Median Home Value
Zoomed in view of Pheasant Ridge
Reveals the year in which homes are built and the timing of student residents
Color of dots represent a specific year according to the county assessor’s office
Type of housing is monitored as inventory type follow the same patterns and yield rates
Residential Development
Identifies possible areas that could develop (Yellow and Purple)
The market and property owner desire to build guides the timing of development
Other properties not shown might develop while some shown might not develop
Growth Areas
Population has continued to increase, where residential development has drastically slowed, housing product must remain affordable for the district to continue growth
Single-Family residential has the highest propensity to have school aged students, yield rates of this development type are typically greater than Multi-Family (Building Permit production in 2019 in less than previous years)
There has been significant patterns shifts related to how long a household with students chooses to reside, with the greatest change being the multi-family developments
In 2019 several multi-family buildings in Emerald Ridge have been constructed, more are anticipated in the next five years in other locations
It is difficult to determine which area will experience new residential development
Example The Highlands (by water tower) has all the infrastructure to the site, but no residential activity has happened
With the limited residential development that has happened in the last couple of years, combined with
the increased job market, without new development it will be difficult to have enrollment increases
The planned six million dollar incentive package to build housing should result in more building
activity happening as soon as the spring of 2020
Tracking the types of development is important to understand the yield rate of students for every part of the community – there are varying yield rates with all developments
Part Three: Enrollment
Projected: 1,959
Actual: 1,863
Accuracy: 94.9%
Projection Accuracy
Notes: This accuracy is the 1st year of the 2019/20 RSP Projections, conducted in 18/19
Demographic shifts with millennials impacting future enrollment (Jobs, Jobs, Jobs)
Many areas of the community having significant demographic shifts influencing changes in enrollment (type of
households not generating similar yield rates of students
The challenge with accurate projections is related to the housing activity – for the last several years there has
been very little residential development, fewer housing options influenced choosing multi-family as place of
residence – significant change (migration) has resulted in 19/20
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Enrollment Change: Enrollment Change – Overall enrollment increase anticipated (Elementary, Middle, and High)
When ES #3 comes online in 2020/21 the grade configuration will change to K-5, 6-8, 9-12
Increases based on continued development opportunities within the district – if housing does
happen at county and city assumptions, the ability to meet this forecast will be limited
District increases by nearly 2,000 students (+102.9%) (+6.4% to +8.2% a year)
Elementary (K-2) increases by about 500 students (+91.5%) (+3.9% to +12.2% a year)
Middle School (3-6) increases by nearly 600 students (+88.6%) (+2.5% to +9.2% a year)
High School (7-12) increases by about 900 students (+123.5%) (+5.9% to +10.7% a year)
NOTE:
students
Source: McKenzie County School District #1 and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
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Past Enrollment is shown three different ways:
1. Reside (Based on where a student Resides in relation to the attendance area – includes Open
Enrollment)
2. Attend (Based on what school the student is attending includes Open Enrollment)
3. Reside/Attend (Subset of Reside to know how many of the Reside attend the school based on
the attendance area they are assigned to)
Projections are shown one way:
1. Reside (Based on where a student Resides in relation to the attendance area: Includes Open
Enrollment)
Capacity
Provided by district administration
Should be annually examined to ensure appropriate education space is available
Other Items
Existing condition shows the current grade configuration (K-2, 3-6, 7-12)
Future boundary change will reflect the new grade configuration Enrollment Grade
Configuration in Student Forecast Model (K-5, 6-8, 9-12)
Open enrollment trends are assumed to follow district policy and will continue like those
trends during the projection time frame
Fox Hills Site Elementary opens in the 2020/21 school year
New attendance area options updated with the new 2019/20 enrollment projections
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Enrollment provided by the district
Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School
New Elementary Opens in 2020/21
Existing
Condition
Watford City Elementary
Capacity 650 650 Reside 513 493 536 507 525 571 593 621 647 693 722 795 892 959 1,015
Grades K to 3 (18/19: K to 2) Attend 527 504 547 513 530
Watford City Intermediate
Capacity 550 550 Reside 291 329 357 610 624 673 732 781 851 912 974 1,017 1,042 1,112 1,194
Grades 4-6 (18/19: 3 to 6) Attend 300 336 362 618 633
Watford City High
Capacity 800 800 Reside 472 519 582 669 714 804 866 959 1,014 1,112 1,205 1,311 1,428 1,512 1,629
Grades 7-12 Attend 489 539 606 683 729
DISTRICT K -12 TOTALS
Capacity 2,000 2,000 Reside 1,276 1,341 1,475 1,786 1,863 2,048 2,191 2,361 2,511 2,715 2,901 3,123 3,362 3,583 3,838
Kdg to 12th Attend 1,316 1,379 1,515 1,814 1,892
By Capacity
Grade Existing 2013/14 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30
Kind 132 128 123 145 194 186 193 192 210 217 235 258 290 312 323 347
1st 135 145 127 127 164 179 190 199 199 218 225 224 267 299 322 332
2nd 128 133 121 146 155 165 188 202 212 212 233 240 238 281 314 336
3rd 101 121 133 129 171 159 171 195 211 223 224 245 252 250 293 327
4th 104 102 123 141 140 172 162 175 200 218 231 232 253 259 258 301
5th 102 99 106 123 161 154 182 175 189 215 236 252 251 273 279 279
6th 105 99 107 98 146 148 158 187 181 195 221 245 261 260 282 287
7th 89 105 103 113 121 145 152 163 193 189 203 229 255 272 271 293
8th 90 85 111 109 123 117 148 155 166 196 194 209 233 261 278 277
9th 96 82 85 119 136 153 127 160 167 179 212 210 223 252 282 303
10th 68 84 96 94 113 118 155 129 163 170 183 216 215 228 256 288
11th 81 65 82 96 98 112 115 151 126 159 167 180 212 211 223 252
12th 71 68 62 75 92 84 107 108 144 121 153 161 173 204 202 216
K to 2nd 650 395 406 371 418 513 530 571 593 621 647 693 722 795 892 959 1,015
3rd to 6th 550 412 421 469 491 618 633 673 732 781 851 912 974 1,017 1,042 1,112 1,194
7th to 12th 800 495 489 539 606 683 729 804 866 959 1,014 1,112 1,205 1,311 1,428 1,512 1,629
District 2,000 1,302 1,316 1,379 1,515 1,814 1,892 2,048 2,191 2,361 2,512 2,717 2,901 3,123 3,362 3,583 3,838
K to 2nd Change 11 -35 47 95 17 41 22 28 26 46 29 73 97 67 56
3rd to 6th Change 9 48 22 127 15 40 59 49 70 61 62 43 25 70 82
7th to 12th Change -6 50 67 77 46 75 62 93 55 98 93 106 117 84 117
District Change 14 63 136 299 78 156 143 170 151 205 184 222 239 221 255
Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - December 2019
Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student Exceed Existing Capacity
Note 2: PreKindergarten are not in the enrollment projections
Note 3: Capacity numbers for each school provided by the District
Note 5: New High School opened in 2015/16 - Grade Configuration planned is Kdg to 2nd, 3rd to 6th, and 7th to 12th
Past School Enrollment Future Enrollment Reside & Attend Students
Future Enrollment Reside & Attend StudentsPast School Enrollment
Part Four: Moving Forward
Next Steps
The following items will assist the district advance its educational goals;
Continue to utilize the enrollment projections to assist with planning for staff need for the following
school year
District administration and the Board of Education further study the enrollment, demographic, and
development information presented
Annually review enrollment projections – planning for capacity stresses in system
Monitor development and infrastructure activity on at least a monthly basis to understand how that
may impact future enrollment
Demographic shifts and type of development will continue to influence where future households
locate impacting the number of students that will attend each school. . . Monitor economic and
development trends
Determine the criteria to address capacity issues and timing for future school construction,
remodeling, or new attendance areas
Administration continue to examine facility utilization opportunities to improve the student education
experiences
Continue to make decisions and communicate that information to the community so they can
understand how educational opportunities will support College and Career ready students
40
School Capacity 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2023 Capacity %
1. Watford City Elementary 600 548 575 618 670 714 119.0%
2. Fox Hills Site Elementary #2 600 540 563 604 631 670 111.7%
Total 1,200 1,088 1,138 1,222 1,301 1,384 115.3%
2020/21 Option 1 20/21 Projections by Grade School Capacity K 1 2 3 4 5 Total
1. Watford City Elementary 600 101 97 94 78 84 94 548
2. Fox Hills Site Elementary #2 600 92 93 94 94 79 88 540
Total 1,200 193 190 188 172 163 182 1,088
Option 1 20/21 Notes: This option plans for the Fox Hills Elementary Site opening in the 2020/21 school
year
Both elementary schools will serve K-5 enrollment
Neighborhood concept integrated into the option creation
Tried to improve the transportation for elementary students by having a boundary
that could reduce time on the bus or distance traveled
Minimize areas that would have to move again when the 3rd elementary comes
online in 2022/23
Illustrates the need for the 3rd elementary school in 2022/23
2020/21 Option 1 20/21 Projections by Building
Source: McKenzie County School District #1 and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
Source: McKenzie County School District #1 and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
42
u al
iz in
g Su
cc es
sDiscussion Points
Key Considerations
Sophisticated Forecast Model (SFM)
Yield Rate of Students
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North
Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin
Clay Guthmiller Education Planner
Craig Menozzi Education Planner
Brandon Sylvester GIS Analyst, GISP Candidate
Robert Schwarz CEO, AICP, REFP, ALEP, CEFP
Educators
Planning
Expectations
Below are some key points to think about as you examine how the analysis looked at creating a
planning tool for making decisions:
Project timeline a result of ensuring student data could represent as close as possible the Official Count
with attributes that would allow RSP to forecast enrollment at a parcel level geography
The findings were not focused on supporting or contradicting any past internal or outsourced studies –
the analysis is based on data, data, and more data
The study factored in many different data sets to provide data driven analysis that is the foundation to the
RSP Statistical Forecast Model (SFM)
Enrollment change in the community is influenced by but not limited to: the birth rate, demographics,
types of development, and housing affordability
The study does not provide specific information about which site would be best suited for a new facility or
for that matter should the district build any new facility – this analysis is one portion of how to make that
decision
This analysis is based on the same grade configuration and educational programming expectations the
patrons have for each student
Projecting enrollment is not a science – like life in general some assumptions happen that may lead to
greater enrollment while others toward a smaller enrollment
The goal of this study is to help the board, administration, and public understand how to make the best
decision for the students at the classroom level
Part One: Enrollment &
Enrollment Projections – Ten Year Outlook:
District increases by nearly 2,000 students (+102.9%) (+6.4% to +8.2% a year)
Elementary (K-2) increases by about 500 students (+91.5%) (+3.9% to +12.2% a year)
Middle School (3-6) increases by nearly 600 students (+88.6%) (+2.5% to +9.2% a year)
High School (7-12) increases by about 900 students (+123.5%) (+5.9% to +10.7% a year)
Capacity over the next five years:
Pressures are alleviated with the opening of the Fox Hills Site elementary in 2020/21
Without that school coming online and maintaining the same grade configuration the intermediate
and the high school would not have the needed capacity for students
Plans will need to be made for additional elementary capacity
Development Opportunities:
Significant areas of vacant land that when they are developed will have a drastic effect on future
enrollment
With the limited residential development that has happened in the last couple of years, combined
with the increased job market, without new development it will be difficult to have enrollment
increases
The planned six million dollar incentive package to build housing should result in more residential
building activity happening as soon as the spring of 2020
9
Municipality Limits Arnegard (Pink)
Natural Features (Rivers and Creeks)
Manmade Features (Railroad and Streets)
Attendance Areas
for demographic, development, and enrollment
data sets
Detailed Planning Areas
Zoomed in view of Planning Areas (Blue Line) and Southeast Elementary
Displays the power of GIS data & Information
See where students are located (color dots) in relation to streets, subdivisions, and parcels
Illustrates how the planning areas are tied to development types at the parcel level
12
Sophisticated Forecast Model This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening
in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate
enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s report and maps to better
understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects.
Built-Out
Developing
Where:
13
Sophisticated Forecast Model
The important factor concerning the RSP SFM is that it is a Social Science not an exact
science; it identifies behavior trends to determine the propensity of them to be
recreated:
The value of the RSP SFM is how our team creates and analyzes the geography at a
planning area level for any commonality which will help produce an accurate forecast
Some of the variables examined for each planning area (but not limited to):
Natural Cohort (District data)
Planning Area Subdivision Lifecycle (RSP variable)
Value of Homes (County assessor data)
Type of Residential unit (SF, MF, DUP, TH, Resort, etc.) (County assessor data)
Year units were built (County assessor data)
Estimated female population (Census data)
Estimated 0-4 population (Census data)
Existing Land Use (County and City data)
Future Land Use (County and City data)
Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) (County and City data)
Future Developments (County and City data)
In-Migration of students (District data)
Out-Migration of students (District data)
14
Density weighted by land area of each Block Group
Red areas have greatest density, Blue have the least
This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment
15
Density weighted by land area of each Block Group
Red areas have greatest density, Blue have the least
This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment
District Demographics
Population Annual Rate; Percentage Change
Housing Annual Rate; Percentage Change
Income Per Capita; Percentage Change
Workforce Unemployment Rate
2019-2024: 0.04% Increase
NOTES:
faster rate than the previous five
years.
indicate a general housing
known in these numbers or how
affordable the units are so more
analysis required.
same through 2024.
U.S. average.
What does this mean? Demographic attribute information is mostly consistent between the geographies
Unemployment in the district is the lowest of all the geographies
McKenzie County & Williston Public School Districts have comparable Average Household Size
Median Income is much higher than the State of North Dakota of $60,996
Housing vacancy rate is higher than the State of North Dakota average of 12.5%
Source: US Census 2019
Dunn
County
McKenzie
County
Average Household Size 2.39 2.36 2.32 2.44 2.56 2.30
Median Age 44 37.4 42.9 46.2 39.9 38.1
Total Population 9,383 29,401 4,725 4,285 16,013 788,958
Median Household Income $91,314 $82,043 $85,338 $70,471 $78,262 $60,996
Total Housing Units 4,902 14,208 2,395 2,551 7,898 379,660
Owner Occupied Housing Units 2,767 6,622 1,298 1,195 3,996 207,051
Renter Occupied Housing Units 1,118 5,695 714 509 2,194 125,002
Vacancy Rate 20.7% 13.3% 16.0% 33.2% 21.6% 12.5%
Ethnicity McKenzie County
Dunn
County
McKenzie
County
American Indian/Alaskan 0.2% 5.0% 0.2% 9.6% 9.1% 4.8%
Asian 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6%
Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Other Race 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Two or More Races 1.6% 5.3% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% 2.0%
Hispanic 3.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.1% 7.9% 3.7%
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Smallest class in 2019/20 – 12th grade (84)
Graduating senior class smaller than the incoming Kindergarten class
In future years, if residential development happens more grades will likely be greater than 200
students
Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total
2004/05 32 26 42 36 43 33 59 47 52 42 59 56 53 580
2005/06 26 33 26 43 34 43 30 62 44 52 43 57 49 542
2006/07 37 28 30 28 44 29 45 32 63 47 54 43 55 535
2007/08 38 39 30 33 32 41 34 48 34 60 43 55 44 531
2008/09 38 40 35 30 29 36 41 36 50 36 63 39 48 521
2009/10 40 40 41 39 34 34 39 43 37 49 42 59 40 537
2010/11 44 48 41 39 45 37 32 43 47 45 55 43 62 581
2011/12 65 51 65 54 50 59 49 45 57 45 51 63 44 698
2012/13 78 79 67 72 69 67 65 67 53 73 61 57 59 867
2013/14 125 109 91 91 84 94 74 84 87 66 81 64 55 1,105
2014/15 132 135 128 101 104 102 105 89 90 96 68 81 71 1,302
2015/16 128 145 133 121 102 99 99 105 85 82 84 65 68 1,316
2016/17 123 127 121 133 123 106 107 103 111 85 96 82 62 1,379
2017/18 145 127 146 129 141 123 98 113 109 119 94 96 75 1,515
2018/19 194 164 155 171 140 161 146 121 123 136 113 98 92 1,814
2019/20 186 179 165 159 172 154 148 145 117 153 118 112 84 1,892
Source: McKenzie County School District #1
Enrollment By Grade
Largest average K-12 class increase – 8th to 9th grade (+21)
Largest average K-12 class decrease – 11th to 12th grade (-8)
The cohort’s with the red circle indicate a different cohort result than what has been
experienced the last few years – illustrating transiency factors Current Kdg to 1st , 1st to 2nd, 2nd to 3rd, 3rd to 4th,5th to 6th , 6th to 7th, 7th to 8th, 9th to 10th, and 11th to 12th
smaller increases or decreases are something new and should be monitored
Change By Grade from the Previous Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
From To K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Change Percent
2004/05 2005/06 -6 1 0 1 -2 0 -3 3 -3 0 1 -2 -7 -38 -6.6%
2005/06 2006/07 11 2 -3 2 1 -5 2 2 1 3 2 0 -2 -7 -1.3%
2006/07 2007/08 1 2 2 3 4 -3 5 3 2 -3 -4 1 1 -4 -0.7%
2007/08 2008/09 0 2 -4 0 -4 4 0 2 2 2 3 -4 -7 -10 -1.9%
2008/09 2009/10 2 2 1 4 4 5 3 2 1 -1 6 -4 1 16 3.1%
2009/10 2010/11 4 8 1 -2 6 3 -2 4 4 8 6 1 3 44 8.2%
2010/11 2011/12 21 7 17 13 11 14 12 13 14 -2 6 8 1 117 20.1%
2011/12 2012/13 13 14 16 7 15 17 6 18 8 16 16 6 -4 169 24.2%
2012/13 2013/14 47 31 12 24 12 25 7 19 20 13 8 3 -2 238 27.5%
2013/14 2014/15 7 10 19 10 13 18 11 15 6 9 2 0 7 197 17.8%
2014/15 2015/16 -4 13 -2 -7 1 -5 -3 0 -4 -8 -12 -3 -13 14 1.1%
2015/16 2016/17 -5 -1 -24 0 2 4 8 4 6 0 14 -2 -3 63 4.8%
2016/17 2017/18 22 4 19 8 8 0 -8 6 6 8 9 0 -7 136 9.9%
2017/18 2018/19 49 19 28 25 11 20 23 23 10 27 -6 4 -4 299 19.7%
2018/19 2019/20 -8 -15 1 4 1 14 -13 -1 -4 30 -18 -1 -14 78 4.3%
3-Yr Avg 21.0 2.7 16.0 12.3 6.7 11.3 0.7 9.3 4.0 21.7 -5.0 1.0 -8.3 171.0 11.3%
3-Yr Wavg 16.0 -0.5 13.0 11.7 5.5 13.7 -0.2 8.2 2.3 25.3 -9.5 0.8 -9.5 161.3 10.4%
Source: McKenzie County School District #1
Total
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not attending in 18/19 as Kdg-11th grade
Provides insight into where new students
households are choosing to live
323 new students in 2017/18
469 new students in 2018/19
368 new students in 2019/20
21
grade that did not attend in 19/20 as 1st-12th grade
Provides insight into where the leaving student
households were living
Total Migration +59
Total Migration +187
Total Migration -10
22
Student Count Change Depicts student movement at each Planning Area from 2015/16 to 2019/20
Orange areas experienced an increase since 2015/16
Green areas experienced a decrease since 2015/16
White areas had no net change of students between 2015/16 to 2019/20
New developments have a greater propensity to have more students in future years
23
Student “Heat” Density
Red areas depict highest density of students, Gray as lowest student density
Overlapping points (2 or more students) are handled using a weighting of coincident points
Newer developments and/or most affordable areas tend to have the greatest density
Some new areas do not necessarily lead to similar yield rates of like developments
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The district has maintained contiguous boundaries for elementary schools
RSP & Associates monitors over 250 planning areas for demographic, development, and enrollment data sets
Direct correlation between women in child bearing ages (15-49) and where children (0-4) reside (monitoring demographic impact of millennials)
Enrollment tends to increase from grade to grade each year at each level
Large increases happen from 8th to 9th grade
Large decreases happen from 11th to 12th grade
2019/20 saw several grades have a cohort decrease (This happened in 2015/16)
Larger elementary school grades of 200 students will result in future larger Middle and High school grades
Greatest student density on Main Street and the Hunters Run area
Least student density in rural areas of the district
The slowdown in housing makes it a challenge for new households to find affordable homes or the type of housing they would like to ultimately reside in
Part Two: Development
Source: Census Estimates, Watford City, McKenzie County School District #1 Enrollment and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
26
Graphic Explanation Census data indicates an increasing population (Forecasted to increase annually 8.69%)
Households moving into the district appear to have more children which are school aged
Families making choices to live where jobs are, meaning living in multi-family housing
Building trend indicates there has been steady new residential activity (Anticipated to increase)
Census data indicates in 2018 there is a 20.7% vacancy
Increase from 2012 to 2015 were the multi-family residential units that came online
New single-family development is not keeping pace with demand
Anticipating more single-family development happening in the next few years
Student Enrollment growth has remained positive the last ten+ years (Continued increases)
Larger elementary grades will likely mean greater enrollment at the middle and high school grades
27
Single-Family Table Explanation Depicts elementary (K-5) enrollment and the corresponding yield rate for the last fifteen years
Single-Family residential yield rate average has decreased over the past decade
Adding newer housing inventory typically can increase the yield rate – type of housing must be
monitored
From 2004 to 2019 there were approximately 1,900 single family units added to the building inventory
Multi-Family Table Explanation
Multi-family consists of any residential unit that would be classified as Townhome, Duplex, Apartment,
and mobile home – basically everything other than single-family
Multi-Family has decreased near half over the past decade
Multi-Family residential average (.19) has a lower student yield rate when compared to Single-Family
residential (.32) within the district
From 2004 to 2019 there were approximately 5,300 multi-family units added to the building inventory
Single-Family (SF)
Multi-Family (MF)
Schools 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Avg
District (K-12): 0.39 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.24 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.3 0.31 0.32
Source: McKenzie County School District, McKenzie County, & Watford City
Schools 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Avg
District (K-12): 0.32 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.13 0.1 0.12 0.13 0.17 0.18 0.19
Source: McKenzie County School District, McKenzie County, & Watford City
Other Enrollment Trends
Timing of Feeder Change Discussion
Graphics below show the migration patterns of students for the last 3 years by development type
Migration Trends 2019
Migration Trends 2017
Single Family 129 -85 44
Multi-Family 334 -186 148
Unmatched 0 -1 -1
All 469 -282 187
DevType InMigration OutMigration NetMigration
Multi-Family 228 -151 77
Unmatched 4 -6 -2
All 323 -264 59
DevType InMigration OutMigration NetMigration
Multi-Family 248 -241 7
Unmatched 10 -1 9
All 368 -378 -10
or outgoing 12th grade students (always
leave)
following school year
the following year
district
family development
29
Based on assessed Home Value as provided and maintained by the county assessor’s office
Depicted by Median Value in each Planning Area
Home values likely correlated to socioeconomic status – new areas tend to be the least affordable
Areas shaded in Orange and Red have the greatest Median Home Value
Areas shaded in Blue represent the greatest affordability
Median Home Value
Zoomed in view of Pheasant Ridge
Reveals the year in which homes are built and the timing of student residents
Color of dots represent a specific year according to the county assessor’s office
Type of housing is monitored as inventory type follow the same patterns and yield rates
Residential Development
Identifies possible areas that could develop (Yellow and Purple)
The market and property owner desire to build guides the timing of development
Other properties not shown might develop while some shown might not develop
Growth Areas
Population has continued to increase, where residential development has drastically slowed, housing product must remain affordable for the district to continue growth
Single-Family residential has the highest propensity to have school aged students, yield rates of this development type are typically greater than Multi-Family (Building Permit production in 2019 in less than previous years)
There has been significant patterns shifts related to how long a household with students chooses to reside, with the greatest change being the multi-family developments
In 2019 several multi-family buildings in Emerald Ridge have been constructed, more are anticipated in the next five years in other locations
It is difficult to determine which area will experience new residential development
Example The Highlands (by water tower) has all the infrastructure to the site, but no residential activity has happened
With the limited residential development that has happened in the last couple of years, combined with
the increased job market, without new development it will be difficult to have enrollment increases
The planned six million dollar incentive package to build housing should result in more building
activity happening as soon as the spring of 2020
Tracking the types of development is important to understand the yield rate of students for every part of the community – there are varying yield rates with all developments
Part Three: Enrollment
Projected: 1,959
Actual: 1,863
Accuracy: 94.9%
Projection Accuracy
Notes: This accuracy is the 1st year of the 2019/20 RSP Projections, conducted in 18/19
Demographic shifts with millennials impacting future enrollment (Jobs, Jobs, Jobs)
Many areas of the community having significant demographic shifts influencing changes in enrollment (type of
households not generating similar yield rates of students
The challenge with accurate projections is related to the housing activity – for the last several years there has
been very little residential development, fewer housing options influenced choosing multi-family as place of
residence – significant change (migration) has resulted in 19/20
35
Enrollment Change: Enrollment Change – Overall enrollment increase anticipated (Elementary, Middle, and High)
When ES #3 comes online in 2020/21 the grade configuration will change to K-5, 6-8, 9-12
Increases based on continued development opportunities within the district – if housing does
happen at county and city assumptions, the ability to meet this forecast will be limited
District increases by nearly 2,000 students (+102.9%) (+6.4% to +8.2% a year)
Elementary (K-2) increases by about 500 students (+91.5%) (+3.9% to +12.2% a year)
Middle School (3-6) increases by nearly 600 students (+88.6%) (+2.5% to +9.2% a year)
High School (7-12) increases by about 900 students (+123.5%) (+5.9% to +10.7% a year)
NOTE:
students
Source: McKenzie County School District #1 and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
36
Past Enrollment is shown three different ways:
1. Reside (Based on where a student Resides in relation to the attendance area – includes Open
Enrollment)
2. Attend (Based on what school the student is attending includes Open Enrollment)
3. Reside/Attend (Subset of Reside to know how many of the Reside attend the school based on
the attendance area they are assigned to)
Projections are shown one way:
1. Reside (Based on where a student Resides in relation to the attendance area: Includes Open
Enrollment)
Capacity
Provided by district administration
Should be annually examined to ensure appropriate education space is available
Other Items
Existing condition shows the current grade configuration (K-2, 3-6, 7-12)
Future boundary change will reflect the new grade configuration Enrollment Grade
Configuration in Student Forecast Model (K-5, 6-8, 9-12)
Open enrollment trends are assumed to follow district policy and will continue like those
trends during the projection time frame
Fox Hills Site Elementary opens in the 2020/21 school year
New attendance area options updated with the new 2019/20 enrollment projections
37
Enrollment provided by the district
Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School
New Elementary Opens in 2020/21
Existing
Condition
Watford City Elementary
Capacity 650 650 Reside 513 493 536 507 525 571 593 621 647 693 722 795 892 959 1,015
Grades K to 3 (18/19: K to 2) Attend 527 504 547 513 530
Watford City Intermediate
Capacity 550 550 Reside 291 329 357 610 624 673 732 781 851 912 974 1,017 1,042 1,112 1,194
Grades 4-6 (18/19: 3 to 6) Attend 300 336 362 618 633
Watford City High
Capacity 800 800 Reside 472 519 582 669 714 804 866 959 1,014 1,112 1,205 1,311 1,428 1,512 1,629
Grades 7-12 Attend 489 539 606 683 729
DISTRICT K -12 TOTALS
Capacity 2,000 2,000 Reside 1,276 1,341 1,475 1,786 1,863 2,048 2,191 2,361 2,511 2,715 2,901 3,123 3,362 3,583 3,838
Kdg to 12th Attend 1,316 1,379 1,515 1,814 1,892
By Capacity
Grade Existing 2013/14 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30
Kind 132 128 123 145 194 186 193 192 210 217 235 258 290 312 323 347
1st 135 145 127 127 164 179 190 199 199 218 225 224 267 299 322 332
2nd 128 133 121 146 155 165 188 202 212 212 233 240 238 281 314 336
3rd 101 121 133 129 171 159 171 195 211 223 224 245 252 250 293 327
4th 104 102 123 141 140 172 162 175 200 218 231 232 253 259 258 301
5th 102 99 106 123 161 154 182 175 189 215 236 252 251 273 279 279
6th 105 99 107 98 146 148 158 187 181 195 221 245 261 260 282 287
7th 89 105 103 113 121 145 152 163 193 189 203 229 255 272 271 293
8th 90 85 111 109 123 117 148 155 166 196 194 209 233 261 278 277
9th 96 82 85 119 136 153 127 160 167 179 212 210 223 252 282 303
10th 68 84 96 94 113 118 155 129 163 170 183 216 215 228 256 288
11th 81 65 82 96 98 112 115 151 126 159 167 180 212 211 223 252
12th 71 68 62 75 92 84 107 108 144 121 153 161 173 204 202 216
K to 2nd 650 395 406 371 418 513 530 571 593 621 647 693 722 795 892 959 1,015
3rd to 6th 550 412 421 469 491 618 633 673 732 781 851 912 974 1,017 1,042 1,112 1,194
7th to 12th 800 495 489 539 606 683 729 804 866 959 1,014 1,112 1,205 1,311 1,428 1,512 1,629
District 2,000 1,302 1,316 1,379 1,515 1,814 1,892 2,048 2,191 2,361 2,512 2,717 2,901 3,123 3,362 3,583 3,838
K to 2nd Change 11 -35 47 95 17 41 22 28 26 46 29 73 97 67 56
3rd to 6th Change 9 48 22 127 15 40 59 49 70 61 62 43 25 70 82
7th to 12th Change -6 50 67 77 46 75 62 93 55 98 93 106 117 84 117
District Change 14 63 136 299 78 156 143 170 151 205 184 222 239 221 255
Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - December 2019
Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student Exceed Existing Capacity
Note 2: PreKindergarten are not in the enrollment projections
Note 3: Capacity numbers for each school provided by the District
Note 5: New High School opened in 2015/16 - Grade Configuration planned is Kdg to 2nd, 3rd to 6th, and 7th to 12th
Past School Enrollment Future Enrollment Reside & Attend Students
Future Enrollment Reside & Attend StudentsPast School Enrollment
Part Four: Moving Forward
Next Steps
The following items will assist the district advance its educational goals;
Continue to utilize the enrollment projections to assist with planning for staff need for the following
school year
District administration and the Board of Education further study the enrollment, demographic, and
development information presented
Annually review enrollment projections – planning for capacity stresses in system
Monitor development and infrastructure activity on at least a monthly basis to understand how that
may impact future enrollment
Demographic shifts and type of development will continue to influence where future households
locate impacting the number of students that will attend each school. . . Monitor economic and
development trends
Determine the criteria to address capacity issues and timing for future school construction,
remodeling, or new attendance areas
Administration continue to examine facility utilization opportunities to improve the student education
experiences
Continue to make decisions and communicate that information to the community so they can
understand how educational opportunities will support College and Career ready students
40
School Capacity 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2023 Capacity %
1. Watford City Elementary 600 548 575 618 670 714 119.0%
2. Fox Hills Site Elementary #2 600 540 563 604 631 670 111.7%
Total 1,200 1,088 1,138 1,222 1,301 1,384 115.3%
2020/21 Option 1 20/21 Projections by Grade School Capacity K 1 2 3 4 5 Total
1. Watford City Elementary 600 101 97 94 78 84 94 548
2. Fox Hills Site Elementary #2 600 92 93 94 94 79 88 540
Total 1,200 193 190 188 172 163 182 1,088
Option 1 20/21 Notes: This option plans for the Fox Hills Elementary Site opening in the 2020/21 school
year
Both elementary schools will serve K-5 enrollment
Neighborhood concept integrated into the option creation
Tried to improve the transportation for elementary students by having a boundary
that could reduce time on the bus or distance traveled
Minimize areas that would have to move again when the 3rd elementary comes
online in 2022/23
Illustrates the need for the 3rd elementary school in 2022/23
2020/21 Option 1 20/21 Projections by Building
Source: McKenzie County School District #1 and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
Source: McKenzie County School District #1 and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
42