planet – a comprehensive tool for forecast and appraisal of public transport schemes in the uk...

PLANET – A comprehensive tool for forecast and appraisal of public transport

schemes in the UK

PLANET – A comprehensive tool for forecast and appraisal of public transport

schemes in the UK

12th European EMME/2 Users’ Conference

Basel, Switzerland (22-23 May 2003)

Peter Bartlett (Jacobs Consultancy)

Presentation SummaryPresentation Summary

• History of PLANET

• Interfaces

• Development of PS2002 models

• Crowding and Assignment procedures

• Validation

• Application

• Appraisal

• Future Development

Jacobs ConsultancyJacobs Consultancy

• Jacobs Consultancy UK• 275 staff worldwide• Transport Planning• Business Planning & Strategy• Development Planning

• Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.• Turnover USD 5 billion• Total Staff 33,000• Consulting, Design, Construction, Operations,

Maintenance• Client Base: Industrial, Commercial, Government

Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) UKStrategic Rail Authority (SRA) UK

• Objectives of SRA• Promote use of the national rail network by letting rail

passenger franchises and specifying network enhancements

• Sponsorship and Development of Infrastructure projects

• Management of Freight Grants

• All franchise changes and enhancements must satisfy value for money criteria and be appraised using a framework agreed with Department of Transport (DfT).

www.sra.gov.uk

History of PLANET model developmentHistory of PLANET model development

1990 2000

PL

AN

ET

91 P

LA

NE

T 9

9

PL

AN

ET

MM

PL

AN

ET

PS

2002

Time

Dev

elop

men

t

PL

AN

ET

Mod

el F

utur

e D

evel

opm

ent

PL

AN

ET

ST

RA

TE

GIC

PLANET 91PLANET 91

• 1991 National Rail Timetable

• 1991 Demand

• Geographical area covering former Network South East (NSE) rail services

• Assignment Model

• Early attempts at Distribution Model Split (DMS) model

• No Underground or Bus network

• Developed by British Rail (NSE)

PLANET 99PLANET 99

• 1997/98 National Rail timetable

• 1997/98 Demand

• Trip distribution based on 1991 data

• Enhanced Crowding model

• Elasticity approach for future year forecasts

• Replaced early attempts at DMS model

• Based on relative Generalised Time

PLANET MMPLANET MM

• 1997/98 National Rail timetable

• 1997/98 Demand

• Geographical Extension

• AM and Inter-Peak Time Periods

• London Underground Network

• London Bus Network

• Highway Network

PLANET STRATEGICPLANET STRATEGIC

• Geographical coverage• Northern and Southern England

• 250 Zones• 16 Hour (all-day) model• Multi-Modal

• Rail, Air, Car• Appropriate for Strategic tests

• e.g. High Speed Line (London – NE England)• NOT appropriate for specific detail

• i.e. Local flows, crowding at specific location• Developed by another UK consultancy

PLANET PS2002PLANET PS2002

• 2001/2002 National Rail timetable• Railtrack Train Service Database (TSDB)

• 2001 Demand• CAPRI Ticket Sales data• Segmented by Journey purpose

• North and South Models• Geographical split of UK

North – 1600 zones South – 1400 zones

• Split by Time Period AM (07:00 – 09:59) Inter Peak (10:00 – 15:59)

Planet North and South Rail NetworkPlanet North and South Rail Network

Planet South Rail NetworkPlanet South Rail Network

Planet North Rail NetworkPlanet North Rail Network

PLANET South Network SummaryPLANET South Network Summary

Model/Time Period Public Transport Highway

Planet South AM Modes 9 Modes 2Vehicles 102 Vehicles 0

Centroids 1,377 Centroids 1,377Regular Nodes 3,234 Regular Nodes 1,857Links 18,469 Links 8,256Links (excl CC) 11,767 Links (excl CC) 5,112

Transit Lines 1,617Transit Line Segments 35,806

Total Demand (mf33) 1,748,547

Planet South IP Modes 9Vehicles 102

Centroids 1,377Regular Nodes 3,234Links 18,469Links (excl CC) 11,767



Planet North AM Modes 9 Modes 2Vehicles 100 Vehicles 0

Centroids 1,558 Centroids 1,558Regular Nodes 882 Regular Nodes 1,857Links 8,900 Links 13,706Links (excl CC) 2,042 Links (excl CC) 5,112



Planet North IP Modes 9Vehicles 100

Centroids 1,558Regular Nodes 882Links 8,900Links (excl CC) 2,042


Total Demand (mf43) 683,508

PLANET North Network SummaryPLANET North Network Summary



































PLANET InterfacesPLANET Interfaces

• INPUTS

• TSDB Train Service Database

• CAPRI Computer Analysis of Passenger Revenue

Information

• ORCATS Operational Research Computer Allocation of

Tickets to Services

Demand matricesDemand matrices

• Processing CAPRI data• October / November 2001 CAPRI data downloaded on

detailed station-station basis• Period demand factored to average winter weekday

Annual season ticket demand “spread” to account for monthly sales patterns

Different factors applied to season, full and reduced tickets

• Daily demand factored to AM / IP periods using ORCATS demand profiles, depending on ticket type, origin / destination station “types”, journey length


• Assigning CAPRI data to zones• PLANET South station-zone distribution outside inner

London based on previous PLANET models• PLANET South distribution inside inner London based on

iterative approach Start with previous (1991 LATS) distribution of London trip

ends from surrounding zones Inner London trip ends factored based on LUL station

entries / exits counted Autumn 2001 Surrounding zone trip ends based on CAPRI data

• PLANET North station-zone distribution based on “zone trip generation” model “Size” of zone (population / employment) Distance of zone from station


• Segmentation by journey purpose

Full fare

Reduced fare

Season tickets

Business

Commuting

Leisure / Other

Journey purpose split by ticket type

Based on “dominant TOC” for each flow

Derived from National Passenger Survey

Demand matrices (example)Demand matrices (example)

• Segmentation by journey purpose

South West Trains (TOC)

Full fare

Reduced fare

Season tickets

Business

Commuting

Leisure / Other

26%

40%

34%

16%

19%

65%

2%

91%

6%

Transit line / network detailsTransit line / network details

• Timetable details downloaded from “TSDB” (Train Service DataBase) file• More reliable than “PIF” file used previously• Contains details of “pick-up / set-down only” stops

• Train route through network calculated by shortest path• Aided by “key passing points” identified in TSDB• Validation checks for correct links / nodes being used

• Trains allocate to AM / IP periods by time at highest “hierarchy station” served• E.g. London terminus for London-based TOCs• Alternative main stations for non-London services (defined

by TOC)

Transit line / network detailsTransit line / network details

• New transit line codes• Based on CAPRI codes• Easier identification of “service groups”

YLWU031st Character = TOC;

Y = South West Trains

1st/2nd Character = Service Group;

YL = 6730 (Waterloo – Hampton Ct / Chessington / Dorking / Guildford

3rd Character = Key timing station;

W = London Waterloo

4th Character = Direction;

U = Up

5th/6th Character = Numerical list of trains

PLANET Assignment Flow DiagramPLANET Assignment Flow Diagram

PR

E-E

LA

ST

IC A

SS

IGN

ME

NT

S

false

load demand & supply profiles

assignment parameters

uncrowded assignment

calculate crowding

crowded assignments

IF ITER < 6

true

false

calc base gen time

calc test gen time

delete old post-elastic matrices

calc post-ELASTIC demand

calc total demand

copy pre-elastic result scenario

IF ITER < 6

true

FINISH

assignment preparation

START

PO

ST

-EL

AS

TIC

AS

SIG

NM

EN

TS

assignment parameters

uncrowded assignment

calculate crowding

crowded assignments

Assignment / Crowding ProcedureAssignment / Crowding Procedure

Business demand

Scenario with total passenger volumes

Overall assignment process

Commuter demand

Leisure demand

Scenario with Business costs

Scenario with Commuter costs

Scenario with Leisure costs

Calculation of Business costs

Calculation of Commuter costs

Calculation of Leisure costs

Loading values accumulated in

6 iterations (50%,15%,10%, 10%,10%,5%)

assign assign assign

sum sum sum

Crowding functionCrowding function

Demand profile

Supply profile

Crowd cost parameters

Train capacity

Modelled passenger volume (total over all journey purposes)

Calculation of ratio of volume to capacity (over 18 time slices)

Calculation of weighted average crowding cost factor for segment / purpose

For each segment and purpose

(train / link combination in four sub-models)

Link type (x3)

Journey purpose (x3)

Service type (x5)

Crowding function – Supply profilesCrowding function – Supply profiles

• Profiles for North/South models + AM/ IP

• Calculated from timed provision of train service capacity • As shown in passenger timetable

• Different profiles reflect different types of service (in peak periods)• Flat profile: fixed formation, standard service interval

Long distance inter-urban service

• Increasing profile : higher frequency services at end of peak period Inter-urban service with business emphasis

• Peaked profile: higher frequency and longer / higher-capacity train formations during peak period Commuter services

Crowding function – Supply profilesCrowding function – Supply profiles

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

07:00 07:10 07:20 07:30 07:40 07:50 08:00 08:10 08:20 08:30 08:40 08:50 09:00 09:10 09:20 09:30 09:40 09:50

TIME PERIOD

FA

CT

OR

Inter-urban (e.g. Leeds-London)

Long-Distance (e.g. Edinburgh-London)

Commuter (Fixed Formation)

Commuter (Some Train Lengthening)

Commuter (Significant Train Lengthening)

Crowding function – Demand profilesCrowding function – Demand profiles

• Profiles for North/South models + AM/ IP

• Calculated on the basis of ORCATS demand profiles • Separate profiles for Business, Leisure, Commuter

(based on profiles for Full, Reduced, Seasons)

• Further refinement may be possible• But note that profiles are approximate anyway

Cover different flow “types” (to / from London, etc.) Cover different flow lengths

Crowding function – Demand profilesCrowding function – Demand profiles

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

07:00 07:10 07:20 07:30 07:40 07:50 08:00 08:10 08:20 08:30 08:40 08:50 09:00 09:10 09:20 09:30 09:40 09:50

TIME PERIOD

FA

CT

OR

Business (Full Fare)

Leisure (Reduced Fare)

Commuting (Season Tickets)

Crowding function – cost estimatesCrowding function – cost estimates

• Review of functionality of crowding model within PLANET• Concluded that form of the model appears capable of

ensuring modelled train loads are limited to realistic levels• Higher crowding valuation would cap loads more effectively

• Review of valuation of crowding• 1997 Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook• SRA Research– “Valuation of crowding improvements on

rail services”• Separate valuation for different service types

London-based inter-urban services London commuter services Non-London services

Crowding function – cost estimatesCrowding function – cost estimates

• Suggested crowding penalties for PLANET• Factors applied to in-vehicle journey time

Service type

Load Factor

PLANET PDFH PLANET PDFH PLANET PDFH

80% Sit 1.05 1.07 1.05 1.07 1 1

100% Sit 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1 1.1

140% Sit 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1 1.5

100% Stand 3.5 4 3.5 4 2.5 2.2

140% Stand 4.9 5.4 4.9 5.4 2.9 2.6

80% Sit 1.05 1.07 1 1.07 1 1

100% Sit 1.25 1.25 1.05 1.25 1.1 1.1

140% Sit 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.5

100% Stand 3.5 4 2.5 4 2.5 2.2

140% Stand 4.9 5.4 2.9 5.4 2.9 2.6

80% Sit 1.05 1.07 1.07 1.07 1 1

100% Sit 1.1 1.25 1.1 1.25 1.1 1.1

140% Sit 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5

100% Stand 6.5 4 4 4 3.6 3.6

140% Stand 8.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 4.7 4.7

London Suburban

Non-London

Leisure Business Commuting

London Inter-Urban

Validation of PLANET PS2002 modelsValidation of PLANET PS2002 models

• Comprehensive data collection • On-train passenger counts, by TOC, direction, and time of

train• On station counts, by board/alight, and service time / TOC • Station entering / leaving counts, by time of day

• Comparison between observed and modelled data • Observed data processed to provide totals by AM Peak /

Inter-Peak, TOC, and model link / node

PLANET PS2002 Model ValidationPLANET PS2002 Model Validation

• Central London Termini Cordon

• Inner London Screenlines• Underground• National Rail

• National Rail Screenlines• TOC based (e.g. GNER, Great Western)

PLANET PS2002 Model ValidationPLANET PS2002 Model Validation

PLANET SOUTH AM Peak GEH

London Cordon Stations (inbound)Elephant & Castle -7.2% 10Euston 3.0% 4Fenchurch Street -0.1% 0Finsbury Park -7.6% 13Kings Cross 0.0% 0Liverpool Street 1.8% 5London Bridge -0.2% 1Marylebone 0.1% 0Paddington 0.1% 0St Pancras 0.0% 0Vauxhall -0.3% 1Victoria -1.4% 3

Application of PLANETApplication of PLANET

• Thameslink 2000

• CrossRail Business Case

• Strategic Plan 2003

• European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS)

• Great Western Route modernisation

• East-West Midlands Multi-Modal Study

PLANET InterfacesPLANET Interfaces

• OUTPUTS• ENIF

Thematic maps of time savings Boarding/Alighting at nodes

• MapInfo Thematic maps etc Spatial Analysis

• Appraisal Template Cost-Benefit Analysis

PLANET Output using MapInfo/ENIFPLANET Output using MapInfo/ENIF

PLANET Output using MapInfoPLANET Output using MapInfo

PLANET Output : Summary StatisticsPLANET Output : Summary StatisticsHourly

Passenger Hours Passenger VehicleKilometres Total Uncrowded Crowded Boardings Kilometres

Link Type Pass_km Total_Hours Uncrowd_Hours Crowd_Hours Board Train_km

Underground 6,865,093 268,389 208,230 60,159 1,018,880 11,858DLR & Tramlink 194,591 6,749 6,126 624 42,774 973Heavy Rail 29,241,290 616,496 448,609 167,887 968,837 54,275Bus 1,124,070 75,428 75,428 0 480,317 22,430Coach 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 37,425,044 967,062 738,393 228,670 2,510,808 89,536

Underground LinesBakerloo 281,882 11,475 10,142 1,333 61,297 588Central 945,492 34,880 28,128 6,751 111,991 1,770Circle 171,384 7,868 6,488 1,380 48,628 244District 1,270,826 58,722 41,296 17,427 185,976 1,634

Piccadilly 1,066,293 39,697 29,510 10,187 119,098 1,795Victoria 680,253 22,907 17,757 5,149 125,061 942Waterloo & City 30,801 1,561 1,059 502 12,834 74

Total 6,865,096 268,389 208,230 60,159 1,018,881 11,858

TOC Service Group LTS Rail 1,464,496 32,797 23,627 9,170 41,294 1,350GE (inc. IC) 2,606,343 46,556 36,366 10,190 77,580 4,306WAGN (Liverpool St) 803,296 18,513 15,126 3,387 45,109 1,628WAGN (Moorgate) 241,693 5,724 5,341 383 13,833 521ECML IC(inc Hull) 804,340 7,571 5,954 1,617 6,018 905Silverlink 901,276 15,142 13,473 1,669 36,132 1,995Chiltern 597,813 12,729 9,308 3,420 13,651 1,625

Wales & West 508,198 10,001 8,592 1,409 15,419 3,399Virgin XC 704,106 9,676 9,003 672 12,007 1,744

Total (All Service Groups) 29,241,256 616,494 448,610 167,884 968,836 54,273

PLANET Output : Generalised Time SavingsPLANET Output : Generalised Time Savings

Benefits pax mins pax hrsauxiliary time benefit -23036 -384wait time benefit 220410 3674board time benefit 110719 1845Total In veh time inc crowded time benefit 956560 15943ivt (uncrowded) 357910 5965

Total 1622563 27043

Crowded time benefit 598650 9978Uncrowded time benefit 357910 5965

Appraisal Template: OverviewAppraisal Template: Overview

• An architecture for consistent investment and policy appraisal

• converts model outputs, appraisal parameters and cost inputs into value for money measures which can be changed transparently by manipulating the growth and other assumptions

• Currently being updated for compatibility with the new SRA appraisal criteria

• Final (Alpha version 5) will be available in early June 2003

Appraisal Template: StagesAppraisal Template: Stages

• Information

• Assumptions

• Costs

• Road benefits

• Planet (Interface with model output)

• Growth factors

• Growth

• Cash flows

• DCFs

• Summary CBA

Appraisal Template: Inputs & AssumptionsAppraisal Template: Inputs & Assumptions

Growth scenario 2 Planet base year - PSAM

high 125.00% Selects the Planet forecast year used in the farebox revenue calculations

low 75.00%

FALSE

FALSE Planet base year - PSIP

Appraisal for Project FALSE Selects the Planet forecast year used for Interpeak farebox revenue calculations

Growth constraint profile

31/12/2021 31/12/2030 31/12/2032 31/12/2032

General Period after Planet year 9 18 20 5

Discount Rate 6% 9 18 20 20

Costs and benefits discounted to 31/12/2001 Peak 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0%

Growth base year 01/01/2002 Off-peak 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0%

Financial close date 01/01/2003

Project life (from opening date) 30 years

Opening date 01/01/2008 Growth summary

Appraisal date 31/12/2002 From 31/12/2002 01/01/2012 01/01/2016 01/01/2031

Interpeak service commencement (if applicable) 01/01/2008 To 31/12/2011 31/12/2015 31/12/2030 31/12/2037

Interpeak service duration (years) 3 years Business - peak 10% 15% 3% 0.3%

First year end 31/12/2003 Commuting - peak 10% 15% 3% 0.3%

First year end - operations 31/12/2008 Leisure - peak 10% 15% 3% 0.3%

Interpeak service duration 36 months Business- off-peak 23% 23% 9% 0.3%

Operating period duration 360 months Commuting - off-peak 23% 23% 9% 0.3%

Closing date 31/12/2037 Leisure - off-peak 23% 23% 9% 0.3%

Appraisal template model

Inputs and assumptionsCentral

Use interpeak service?

Constrain growth?

Use growth scenarios?

Appraisal Template: PLANET InputsAppraisal Template: PLANET Inputs

Planet Input year 31/12/2008 Passenger seats km (m) 20000 Enter data in equivalent base year to Planet passenger kmPassenger seats growth 2%

Peak 3 hours Passenger km (Planet Outputs)

Do minimum

Anglia Intercity 0 0 0 Anglia Intercity 0

Cross Country 30,442 30,464 22 Cross Country 780,795

GNER 19,507 18,675 -832 GNER 500,332

Great Western 0 0 0 Great Western 0

Midland Mainline 20,709 20,539 -170 Midland Mainline 531,153

West Coast Trains 72,614 72,790 176 West Coast Trains 1,862,457

C2C 46,132 46,131 -1 C2C 1,183,228

Chiltern 20,790 20,754 -36 Chiltern 533,226

Connex SE 130,931 104,233 -26,699 Connex SE 3,358,212

Connex SC 153,487 122,403 -31,085 Connex SC 3,936,744

Great Eastern 128,669 128,669 0 Great Eastern 3,300,179

Do minimum Option Change


Benefits inputs and calculations

Business

Planet inputs

Full service

Appraisal Template: Cost/Benefit SummaryAppraisal Template: Cost/Benefit Summary

password = "appraisal"

Item £m PV Concession opening date 01/01/2008

Direct Costs Concession close date 31/12/2037

Access and Other Capex -2,181.3 Interim service date 01/01/2008

Net Leasing Costs -368.5

Net Operating Costs -483.4

[TOC margin -61.3]

Total Net Costs -2,033.2 Financial close 01/01/2003

Appraisal date 31/12/2002

Revenues

Net to TOCs 824.7 Planet forecast years used 31/12/2008

Net to LUL (& DLR) -74.3

31/12/2012Total Net Revenues 750.4

Avoided Costs

Station Improvement Costs 58.8

Total Net Financial Benefits -2,223.9

Wider Benefits

Net Passenger Time Savings 963.6

Net Crowding Relief 668.6

Net non-user benefits 23.4

Net user accident benefits 8.8

Construction Disbenefits -23.9Punctuality benefits 0.0

Total Net Wider Benefits 1,640.4

Total Net Benefits -583.5

Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.2:1


Cost/benefits Summary

Cost Benefit Appraisal - TB 1 24tph Sensitivity Test 1

Future PLANET model developmentFuture PLANET model development

• Short Term• Crowding and assignment procedure (MSA)• Demand matrices (inc. LATS+CAPRI+other

data sources)• Medium Term

• Multi-modal modelling• Four-stage model (Generation, Distribution,

Mode Split, Assignment)• Improved Appraisal

• Long Term• Land-Use+Transport Interaction model

planet – a comprehensive tool for forecast and appraisal of public transport schemes in the uk...

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