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Piraeus Bank Group Full Year 2012 Financial Results
2
Piraeus Bank Group Overview
3
Foundation of Piraeus
Bank
Piraeus Bank Privatisation
Listing on ATHEX
Chase Manhattan
Credit Lyonnais
Hellas
Macedonia- Thrace Bank
National Westminster
Merger of Piraeus, Macedonia Thrace, Xios
ETBAbank Xiosbank
Piraeus Bank
Beograd
Piraeus Bank ICB Ukraine
Piraeus Bank
Cyprus
Piraeus Bank Egypt
International
Domestic
Cooperation BNP Wealth Mngt & Ergo Insurance
PSI Participation- HFSF capital
advance
Piraeus Bank Group Timeline
London branch
Piraeus Bank
Bulgaria
Piraeus Bank
Romania
Marathon Bank, USA
Tirana Bank, Albania
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1996 1916 2008 2009 1918 1991 1993 2011
2004 - 2008 Strong Domestic Franchise
International Expansion
2010 2012
2000 - 2003 Processes and IT Harmonisation
1996 - 1999 Establishment
of “critical mass”
Acquisition of: - “good” ATEbank - Geniki Bank
Sale of Marathon
Bank, USA
2013
2009 - 2013 Weathering the Economic Crisis
Acquisition of Greek operations
of CPB, Bank of Cyprus & Hellenic Bank
4
5,503 5,774 6,600 6,890 6,660 6,370 6,171
12,3652,6483,479
5,7577,366 6,757 6,950 6,476
6,232
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Greece Abroad
18,597
Total Assets (€ bn) Piraeus Group at a Glance (data as of Dec.’12)
Branch Network (#) Human Resources (#)
23.530.9
46.454.9 54.3
57.749.4
79.1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
273 301 320 358 359 360 346
889176 235
424537 513 522 486
449
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Greece Abroad
536 449
744 872 895
9,253 8,151
12,357 13,417
14,255
Universal bank, with particular know-how in the areas of SMEs, agricultural banking, retail banking, green banking, as well as e-banking.
Operations in 10 countries, 6 of them EU members.
More than 6 mn customers in Greece and abroad.
High ranking in independent customer satisfaction surveys for a series of years.
c.18,600 employees and c.1,340 branches.
Net loans €44.6 bn, deposits €37.0 bn.
Total equity €5.6 bn (pro-forma for HFSF capital advances and commitment letters).
Credit ratings affected by sovereign developments (S&Ps CCC, Moody’s Caa2, Fitch CCC).
Acquisition of “good” ATEbank in late Jul.’12 and Geniki Bank in Dec.’12, along with the absorption of the Greek operations of the 3 Cypriot banks in Mar.’13, create a large banking institution of systemic importance in Greece (27% market share).
882
13,320
832
12,647
Pre Provision Profitability (€ mn)
Note: pre provision profit, branches and human resources exclude US subsidiary as of 2011 (disposed at end Sept.‘12)
Piraeus Bank Group Overview
1,338
* pro forma for recap EFSF bonds of €7.9 bn (off balance sheet) plus €0.8 bn for ATEbank’s additional funding gap received in Mar.’13
*
381
634
901774 778
611
367
1,323
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2012 includes:
5
Date Developments
Mar.13 Acquisition of the Greek operations of 3 Cypriot banks, BoC, CPB & Hellenic.
Feb.13 Exclusive discussions with Millennium BCP for potential acquisition of Greek Unit.
Jan.13 ATEbank integration close to completion. Final funding gap of €7.5 bn.
Dec.12 Acquisition of Geniki Bank.
Participation in sovereign debt buy back programme (€4.3 bn nominal value). Zero new GGBs.
Sep.12 Disposal of the US subsidiary Marathon Bank.
Jul.12 Absorption of the ‘good’ carve-out of ATEbank
Piraeus Recent Developments
6
Gearing Up to a New Set of Opportunities & Challenges
Piraeus has a successful track-record in post acquisition integration • Piraeus has executed more than 15 acquisitions and mergers in the last 15 years.
Recent transactions enhance Piraeus’ viability • Piraeus at the forefront of the restructuring and stabilization effect of the Greek financial system. • Capital & liquidity strengthening allows the Bank to proceed with its recap rights issue from a stronger position.
Opportunity to create value out of the acquired activities • Recent acquisitions will contribute to earnings capacity and internal capital generation, allowing eventual exit from state aid.
Piraeus remains committed to operating efficiency • Piraeus has proven its capacity to reduce costs, rationalize resources & increase efficiency, exploiting synergies from acquisitions.
Moderate execution risk related to the integration and rationalization processes • Given the experience of Piraeus’ management in similar transactions, internal resources are available to start working on integration streams.
Operational harmonization and customer servicing • Piraeus possesses best in class infrastructure (both business and technical). • The Bank intends to use all resources in order to achieve immediate and tangible benefits for its customers.
7
• Focus on cost containment (-9% OPEX y-o-y in FY’12 on a like-for-like basis, i.e. excluding ATE and Geniki).
• Greek OPEX down 10% like-for-like in FY’12, with staff costs down 16%.
• BlackRock diagnostic exercise:
Piraeus best in class among Greek “core” banks average and total market average in terms of 3year Expected Loss rate for domestic loans both baseline (11.5%) and adverse scenario (15.3%)
• Long term customer relationships. • Branch network specialists. • Central support and credit. • Well established market presence.
• 40+ awards for winbank since 2000. • winbank direct the 1st direct
channel on the market. • Modern platforms boosting
efficiency and customer service, while contributing to lower costs.
• Management responsive to the calls for resolute actions, flexible and proactive.
• Self-help attitude aiming at reinforcing the Bank’s capital and funding position.
• Consistently top position among peers in satisfaction surveys.
• Focus on cost efficiency, flexibility to market needs.
• Increased productivity ratios.
Piraeus Competitive Strengths
Operating efficiency.
Proven credit culture.
Leading provider of financial services especially for SMEs, and now in agri-banking through ATEbank’s acquisition
Advanced electronic banking platforms.
Superior customer satisfaction rate. Modern infrastructure, efficient branch network.
Systemic bank able to weather the crisis.
8
Corporate Governance Highlights
Corporate Responsibility Initiatives
Common Shareholder Base (31 Dec’12)
Corporate Culture
Full adjustment to effective institutional framework of corporate governance (law
3016/02, BoG Governor’s Acts 2577/2006 and 2579/2007).
Non-executive Chairman of BoD &10 other non-executive members (out of which 3
independent).
1 Representative of the Greek Government pursuant to L.3723/2008 and 2
Representatives of the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund pursuant to L.3864/2010.
A Monitoring Trustee has been appointed supervising the Group’s restructuring plan,
according to EC guidelines.
Main BoD Committees with well-defined responsibilities: Audit, Risk Management,
Remuneration, Succession & Nomination of BoD members.
Individuals 49.5%
Greek inst.
investors 5.8%
Int/l institutio
nal investors
27.1%
Companies 17.0%Greek
state 0.6%
c.164,000 shareholders, depicting
the significant diversity of
shareholder base.
50% private investors, 50% legal
entities.
Corporate Responsibility Committee with 3fold focus: Society, Culture, Environment.
1st bank in Greece to systematically promote ‘green’ banking.
Participation in international initiatives (UN Global, UNEP FI, Carbon Disclosure).
Piraeus Group Cultural Foundation carries out culture-related activities, which are
part of the Group's corporate social responsibility (network of 7 museums,
2 more to be created, publications, research).
Piraeus Bank’s Environmental Management System has been certified under EMAS
(EU Eco-Management and Audit Scheme) and ISO 14001.
Performance-driven organisation, flexible to challenges, customer-centric.
High ranking in all independent customer satisfaction surveys.
Perception of a ‘friendly', close-to-customers bank.
Strong credit culture spread in all hierarchical levels.
Workforce: 40 avg age for Group, 42 years in Greece.
Efficient model with 7.5 people/branch on average.
Team-spirit motivation style.
Corporate Governance and Culture
9
Domestic Market Share Evolution
Following the recent acquisitions of ATEbank and Geniki
Bank, as well as the absorption of the domestic operations
of CPB, Bank of Cyprus and Hellenic Bank, Piraeus Bank
holds 27% market share in both deposits and loans.
Calculated Market Shares of Major Banks in Greece (Dec.’12)*
•Piraeus includes ‘good’ ATE and Geniki figures. •Alpha has acquired Emporiki in Jan.’13. •Piraeus has absorbed 3 Cypriot banks operations in Mar.’13. •Postbank: latest available data Sept.’11. Market share is an estimate.
18.3 18.3 15.8
14.5
8.0
4.8 3.8 3.4
2.0 1.5 0.4
21.7 19.0
12.0 12.8
7.2
3.8 4.1 6.3
1.7 1.7 0.4
NBG Piraeus Eurobank Alpha Emporiki CPB BOC Postbank Millennium Attica Hellenic
Loans Deposits
10
Piraeus Bank …
among the first banks that expanded to South-Eastern Europe in the ‘90s and ‘00s, driven by the close business relationships between Greece and the neighbouring countries;
business model to provide traditional banking services, primarily focused on businesses and then on households; initially the Bank followed Greek entrepreneurs’ who expanded their business to SEE and then gradually began to support local banking needs as well;
greenfield development/organic growth, combined with selected acquisitions of small, easy to turn-around private banks with rather healthy portfolios;
“controlled autonomy” model - autonomy in growing business - HQ control risk & provide support - governance alignment of principles group-wide.
The Bank invested in the region, providing capital and funding to support its subsidiaries that experienced intense credit growth; markets were growing in terms of credit, investments were increasing, consumer affordability was improving and, at the same time, the Bank proceeded with extensive branch openings, in order to capitalize on local markets potential, both in terms of corporate and retail banking.
The international financial crisis that emerged as of mid 2007 had a significant impact on SEE economies; economic recession was deep in 2009 and a number of countries of Piraeus’ presence turned to IMF, World Bank, EU for support. Since 2010, these markets have started slowly to recover.
Piraeus Group today operates in 9
countries outside Greece, 5 of which
are EU members
International operations: €9.4 bn
assets, 449 branches and 6,232
employees (2012 year-end data)
2012 Frankfurt
2008 Cyprus
2007 Ukraine
2005 Serbia
2005 Egypt
2000 Romania
1999 New York
1999 London
1996 Albania
1993 Bulgaria
International Business Rationale
11
Table of Contents
i. FY2012 Highlights 12
ii. Recapitalization Process 15
iii. The Cypriot Banking Operations Transaction 18
iv. Integration Process 26
v. Analysis of FY2012 Results 29
vi. Greek and Regional Economies 38
vii. Appendix 43
viii. Disclaimer-Communication 46
12
FY2012 Highlights
13
Group Highlights
ATEbank and Geniki have joined Piraeus Group in 2012.
116% loans to deposits ratio as of Dec.123; best in class
among Greek banks.
Eurosystem funding net of total EFSF bonds at 30% of assets;
end of Mar.13 at 9%.
LLRs over gross loans at 12% at year-end 2012.
NPLs at 23% with coverage at 51% in Dec.12.
12.2%2 capital adequacy ratio; CT1 2 at 11.7% in Dec.12.
Greek operations of 3 Cypriot banks absorbed in Mar.13,
driving total Group assets to €98 bn and domestic market
share to 27%.
Largest bank in Greece post transaction.
as of 27 July as of 14 December
(1) pro-forma for the recap EFSF bonds of €7.9 bn which are off balance sheet plus the €0.8 bn for additional funding gap of ATEbank received in Mar.13
(2) pro-forma equity for HFSF capital advances of €7.9 bn
(3) ratio adjusted for OPEKEPE seasonal loan (related to EU support funds to farmers)
amounts in € mn / # Dec. 2012
Assets 1 79,106
Gross Loans 50,573
Loan Loss Reserves (5,961)
Deposits 36,971
Equity 2 5,589
Net Revenues 2,217
Operating Costs (909)
Pre Provision Income 1,322
Branches (#) 1,338
Employees (#) 18,597
Due to the absorption of ‘good’ ATEbank as of 27.07.12 and Geniki Bank as of 14.12.12, no comparatives are included.
14
Group P&L Highlights
as of 27 July as of 14 December
amounts in € mn FY2012
Net Interest Income 1,028
Net Fee Income 218
Trading & Other Income 972
Total Net Revenues 2,217
Employee Costs (424)
Administrative Expenses (379)
Depreciation & Other (106)
Total Operating Costs (909)
Pre Provision Income 1,322
Impairment Charges 2,508
Pre Tax Result (1,185)
Tax 663
Net Result attrib. to SHs1 (513)
NII burdened by higher funding costs.
ELA cost (vs. ECB) in 2012 at €409 mn vs. €56 mn in 2011.
Trading income includes €283 mn gain from buyback
of own debt
€394 mn booked in Q4‘12 from the participation
in sovereign buyback, which was however almost offset by the
impairment charge on new GGBs of €311 mn in Q1’12.
Other income includes €351 mn Geniki negative goodwill.
OPEX down 9% like-for-like annually.
Impairment charge on loans & other assets at €2,197 mn.
PSI related deferred tax of €0.4 bn (not booked in 2011).
(1) from continued operations
15
Recapitalization Process
16
Capital
ΕΒΑ Core Tier I at 11.7%.
Ratios include HFSF capital advances and
commitments:
- €6.3 bn bridge capital;
- €1.1 bn commitment for recapitalization;
- €0.6 bn commitment for “good” ATEbank acquisition.
Recapitalization process on track to anchor the Bank
in the private sector
- Société Générale’s committed participation of €170mn together with BCP Millennium potential contribution shield the future of the Bank.
Recent acquisitions impact rights issue economics
and pave the way for the upcoming rights issue.
as of 27 July as of 14 December
Note: capital includes HFSF advances of €7.9 bn
amounts in € mn Dec. 2012
Core Tier I - EBA definition 5,039
Tier I 5,099
Total Regulatory Capital 5,288
Risk Weighted Assets 43,175
Core Tier I - EBA definition (%) 11.7%
Tier I (%) 11.8%
Total Capital Adequacy (%) 12.2%
17
Capital Strengthening Plan Structure
• Announcement of Invitation to EGM on 4 April 2013. • 1st EGM to be held on 12 April 2013. Capital strengthening plan:
• €7,335 mn of rights issue, out of which €400 mn through private placement (waiver of pre-emption rights); • €570 mn and €524 mn to be injected by the HFSF following the acquisition of ‘good’ ATE and the selected
Greek assets of the Cypriot banks (such amount not to be subject to the 10% private sector participation). Depending on the actual amount raised in the market, Piraeus might issue up to €2 bn of CoCos, thus reducing the 10% private sector participation to minimum required (6% of RWAs). HFSF to cover the remaining amount.
Warrants
Warrants will be traded on the ΑΤΗΕΧ incorporating the option to purchase the HFSF shares: • for each common share acquired through the private sector participation, one warrant will be granted; • one warrant entitles its holder to acquire 9 HFSF rights issue shares per 1 share subscribed for.; • warrants can be obtained through purchasing existing shares and/or rights of, and then subscribe into, the
rights issue; • investors have the opportunity to acquire those shares over the next 4.5 years; • warrant holder pre-emption right at the lower of warrant strike price and market value of last 50 days from
HFSF notice.
Corporate Governance
The shares HFSF will acquire in the capital increase will have restricted voting rights, provided that the private sector achieves the minimum participation required by Law (i.e. 10% of share capital increase).
Capital Strengthening Plan Overview
18
The Cypriot Banking Operations Transaction
19
Key Terms of Transaction
Background
Transaction intended to:
• assist with the deleveraging of the Cypriot banking sector through the transfer of Greek assets and liabilities, with the shortest possible delay, to a Greek bank;
• maintain the stability of the Greek banking system, minimizing the impact on customers and employees.
Consideration defined by EU authorities for the purpose of achieving the two goals above.
Selection of the successful bidder based on qualitative considerations, including the ability to quick and smooth integrate the acquired operations, minimizing the impact for customers and employees.
Carve-out
Greek loans, deposits, branches along with employees of the Greek operations of BoC, CPB and Hellenic Bank, including loans and deposits of their Greek subsidiaries (leasing, factoring, Investment Bank of Greece ) acquired.
• gross loans of €23.9bn and total assets of €19.2 bn; • deposits of €15.0bn; • 307 Greek branches and c. 5,300 employees.
Purchase Price & Funding
Cash consideration of €524mn.
Transaction consideration funded by issuing new shares to HFSF in the upcoming rights issue. • no impact on the required minimum 10% private participation
Timing & Approvals
Transaction already approved by Bank of Greece, HFSF, DG Comp and by a way of derogation by the Greek Anti-Trust Authority; Greek Anti-trust Authority final approval expected by end of May 2013.
20
Strategic Rationale
+ CPB
Context
Assist in the deleveraging of the Cypriot banking sector. Maintain the stability of the Greek banking environment. Minimize impact for customers and employees of the Greek operations of the 3 Cypriot banks.
Unique Commercial
Presence
Creation of the largest player in Greece with a market share of 27% in loans and deposits, adding to greater stability and viability of the sector. Branch footprint in Greece of c.1,200 units allows for unique client reach and deposit gathering capabilities.
Significant Value Creation
€250 mn of fully phased annual synergies pre-taxes stemming from: • centralization of operations and shared services; • better deposit pricing; • footprint optimization. Potential for broader client reach making Piraeus preferred bank for customers. Improved potential for recovering deposits lost over the crisis.
Manageable Execution Risk
Strong Piraeus track record in previous integration experiences. Integration path already defined.
21
The New Group
Dec.2012 Piraeus Group pro forma
Total Assets1 (€ mn) 79,106 19,167 98,273
Gross Customer Loans (€ mn) 50,573 23,859 74,432
Loan Loss Reserves (€ mn) (5,961) (4,824) (10,785)
Net Loans to Customers (€ mn) 44,613 19,035 63,648
Customer Deposits (€ mn) 36,971 14,957 51,928
Greek Deposit Market Share (%) 19.0% 8.3% 27.2%
Greek Loan Market Share (%) 18.3% 9.0% 27.3%
Branches (#) 1,338 312 1,650
Employees (#) 18,597 5,268 23,865
Loans / Deposits Ratio2 (%) 116% 127% 119%
NPLs Ratio (%) 23% 38% 28%
Coverage Ratio (%) 51% 54% 52%
Loan Loss Reserves / Loans (%) 12% 20% 14%
CPB
‘Good’ ATE was absorbed by Piraeus in Jul.12.
Geniki Bank was acquired in mid Dec.12.
Greek operations of BoC, CPB and Hellenic were absorbed in Mar.12.
Carve-out comprises the entire Greek deposits, loans, branches and employees of BoC, CPB and Hellenic Bank, including loans and deposits of their Greek subsidiaries (leasing, factoring, IBG), as well as €2.1 bn of Greek loans booked in Cyprus.
Largest bank by market share.
Largest network footprint in Greece
c.24,000 employees.
119% loans to deposits ratio.
LLRs over gross loans at 14%.
NPLs at 28% with coverage at 52%.
(1) pro-forma for the recap EFSF bonds of €7.9 bn which are off balance sheet plus the €0.8 bn for additional funding gap of ATEbank received in Mar.13
(2) ratio adjusted for OPEKEPE seasonal loan (related to EU support funds to farmers)
22
64% 73% 67%
25% 17% 23%
10% 9% 10%
Piraeus Carve Out New Group
Business Mortgages Consumer
54% 79%
61%
29%
12% 24%
17% 9% 15%
Piraeus Carve Out New Group
Time Savings Sight
Overview of the Carve Out: Loans & Deposits
CPB
CPB
Customer Deposits Mix
Gross Loans Mix
Pro forma Group
Pro forma Group
23
Attica 36%
Macedonia-Thrace
24%
Peloponessos & West Greece
13%
Crete 6%
Thessaly 5%
Central Greece
5%
Aegean Islands
6%
Epirus 3%
Ionian Islands 2%
Increased Footprint and Client Reach in Greece
Largest branch network in Greece with unique client reach and deposit gathering potential (1,186 units as of end-March ‘13).
Significant room for rationalization at low attrition.
More than 5 million customers in Greece.
Attica 423
Macedonia-Thrace 288
Epirus 37
Thessaly 63
Peloponnese, West Greece 148
Aegean Islands 69
Crete 74
Central Greece 61
Ionian Islands 23
24
New Group Pro-forma
4 Peers Average
Key
Ratio
s
>90dpd/Gross Loans (%) 23% 38% 28% 26%
>90dpd Coverage Ratio (%) 50% 54% 52% 50%
Loan Loss Reserves/Loans (%) 12% 20% 15% 13%
Key
Figu
res
Gross Loans (€ bn) 43.2 23.9 67.1
>90dpd (€ bn) 9.9 9.0 18.9
Provisions (€ bn) 5.0 4.8 9.8
Net Loans (€ bn) 38.2 19.0 57.3
Improved Asset Quality - Greece
CPB
90+ Coverage Ratio and LLR Ratio above market average in Greece.
Note: Piraeus Group as of 31.12.12 including Geniki, acquired Perimeter of Greek operations of 3 Cypriot banks as of 15.03.13. Source for peer average: FT2012 investor presentations.
Increased NPL coverage to 52%
+2% vs. peer average
+4% vs. market average
Increased LLR Ratio to 15%
+2% vs. peer average
+3% vs. market average
25
170
250
150
100
IntegrationCosts
TotalSynergies
CostSynergies
FundingSynergies
Significant Value Creation
40%
60%
€250m of annual pre-tax synergies to be delivered by 2015
Lower funding costs through improved time deposit pricing in line with Piraeus - c. 70bps improvement over €12bn
Centralization of IT and other operations Centralization of corporate functions Branch optimization
€250mn of annual pre-tax synergies from year 3
€170mn of estimated integration costs Phasing: 50% in 2013 and 50% in 2014 113%
of Cost Synergies fully-phased
100%
26
Integration Processes
27
ATEbank’s Integration
ACTIONS
TIMING
IT & OPERATIONS Uniform organization structure
Integration of IT Centres, Disaster Recovery Centres, IT Systems
Concluded
June 2013
FRONT OFFICE
Management of ATEbank’s branch network by Piraeus - reporting lines
New brand
Integration of ATEbank’s relationship management for large corporates & SMEs
Integration of ATEbank’s relationship management for SBLs
Concluded
Concluded
Concluded
June 2013
BACK OFFICE
Harmonization/Standardization of internal audit policies and procedures
Integration of credit approval and account monitoring of business loans
Retail loan collection processes alignment
Integration of credit approval and monitoring of retail loans
Business loan collection processes alignment
Standardization of compliance procedures
Concluded
Concluded
Concluded
Concluded
Concluded
Concluded
28
Greek Operations of Cypriot Banks Integration
Unification
Piraeus will set up an executive steering committee headed by the CEO and participants from all four parties (Piraeus Bank, and Greek banking operations of Bank of Cyprus, CPB, and Hellenic Bank) and HFSF, which will be fully responsible for the whole unification programme.
Reporting
An appropriate CEO’s act will be issued under which all reporting lines for the three different management teams will be clearly defined. Furthermore a similar to Piraeus Bank-ATEbank Project Management Office (PMO) will be set up, as well as the respective integration project teams.
Policies
Piraeus Bank’s Credit Policies, Internal Audit Policies and Risk Policies will be extended in all three absorbed banking operations, as well as Bank’s policies and procedures for the restructuring, remedial management, work-outs and retail collections.
Infrastructure
As Piraeus Bank possesses the best in class infrastructure (both business and technical) for retail collections there’s the intention to use the same infrastructure for all three banking operations as it was successfully implemented in Piraeus Bank-ATEbank, having achieved immediate and tangible benefits.
+ CPB
Integration targeted to be completed by H1’14.
29
Analysis of FY2012 Results
30
7.3%
8.8%
9.6%
11.5
%
9.9%
10.6
%
11.5
%
13.3
%
7.9% 9.2% 9.9% 11.8%
Mar.'12 Jun.'12 Sep.'12 Dec.'12Greece International
NPLs and Provision Coverage
Coverage of NPLs 90 days+ (%)
46%
49%
56%
50%
57%
54%
52%
54%
48% 50% 55% 51%
Mar.'12 Jun.'12 Sep.'12 Dec.'12Greece International
Loan Loss Reserves over Loans (%)
Dec.2012 € mn 90 dpd %
> 90 dpd / gross loans 11,760 23%
Dec.2012 € mn Coverage %
Loan loss reserves 5,961 51%
Piraeus NPLs ratio at 23% (Greece 23%, intl’ 25%).
Greek market average NPLs 24.5%; coverage 48%.
Lifetime CLPs in BlackRock review for Greek loans: best among peers in both baseline-adverse scenarios (13.5% vs. 15.4% and 18.4% vs. 20.8%).
31
Liquidity
Eurosystem funding at €32 bn at year-end 2012.
- down to €21 bn as at the end Mar.’13.
- net of the stock of EFSF bonds, liquidity drawn from the Eurosystem stood at €7.5 bn, of which ELA €2 bn
Decreased Eurosystem funding in Q1’13, driven by increased deposits, T-bills reduction, as well as new interbank repo transactions.
Piraeus re-gained access to ECB refinancing operations on 16 Jan.’13 after 3 months. Majority of collateral placed is in the form of EFSF Bonds and Government Guaranteed Bonds.
Additional EFSF bonds of €3.0 bn (HFSF commitments) to be received.
Dec.12 - amounts in € bn Key Liquid Assets
EFSF bonds 12.8
L.3723 Pillars 12.4
T-bills 2.9
Eurosystem Refinancing Breakdown (€ bn)
22
31
2
19
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sept.'12 Dec.'12 26 Mar.'13
33 32
21
ΕCB
ELA 27 Mar. 13
32
NII - Spreads
* parent level data vs. euribor benchmark
Q4’12
-2.02%
-0.48%
-3.47%
4.97%
3.22%
9.20%
5.28%
Spreads * Q3’12
Customer Deposits -2.44%
Savings & Sight -0.46%
Time -3.64%
Loans 4.65%
Mortgages 2.39%
Consumer Loans 8.97%
Business Loans 4.87%
1,229 1,437
-56 -409
2011 2012
Group NII (€ mn)
NII excl. ELA cost
ELA over ECB cost
Eurosystem refinancing through ELA mechanism burdened 2012 NII.
Deposit spreads remained elevated in 2012, with negative contribution from market rates.
Positive impact from ATEbank’s both deposit mix and funding costs.
33
Loan Portfolio
amounts in € mn Dec. 2012
Gross Customer Loans 50,573
Business Loans 32,579
Mortgage Loans 12,713
Consumer Loans 5,281
Greece 43,235
Business Loans 27,199
Mortgage Loans 11,987
Consumer Loans 4,049
International 7,338
Business Loans 5,380
Mortgage Loans 727
Consumer Loans 1,232
Group Loan Book per Sector (%) 1, 2
(1) composition not including seasonal OPEKEPE loan of €2.1 bn currently repaid
(2) green financing loans of €0.8 bn included
Agriculture, 4% Manufactoring,
11%
Energy, 2%
Trade, 10%
Shipping, 3% Transport, 2%
Tourism, 4%
Financial Sector, 2%
Construction, 7% Real Estate, 5% Project Finance,
3%
Other, 9%
Public sector, 1%
Retail, 37%
34
Deposit Portfolio
amounts in € mn Dec. 2012
Customer Deposits 36,971
Savings 10,715
Sight 6,402
Time 19,854
Greece 32,413
Savings 10,442
Sight 5,426
Time 16,545
International 4,559
Savings 273
Sight 977
Time 3,309
Group Deposits Mix (Dec.’12, %) Greek Deposits Mix (Dec.’12, %)
17%
29% 54%
Sight
Savings
Time
17%
32%
51%
Greek market mix at year-end 2012: time 61%, savings 28%, sight 11%.
Total deposit inflows for Q4’12 of +€1.7 bn in Greece (like-for-like, i.e. excluding Geniki).
The positive reversal of deposits continued in Q1’13 with total inflows of €2 bn mainly in Greece.
35
Operating Costs
823 747
135 12 15
2011 2012
Restructuringcosts
Closedbranches
ATE-Geniki
Piraeus
909
Group OPEX (€ mn) OPEX like-for-like (y-o-y%) 2012
Staff expenses -14%
Administrative expenses -3%
Total OPEX -9%
Greece -10%
International -9%
-9%
Group OPEX down 9% annually on a comparable basis:
- ATE-Geniki contributed €135 mn to OPEX
- €15 mn one-off restructuring costs
-€12 mn unamortized cost related to 82 branches that ceased operations in 2012.
Annual OPEX target for 2012 achieved.
Greece OPEX down 10%, with domestic staff costs down 16% y-o-y on a like-for-like basis.
36
International Operations Overview
London Ukraine
Branches 38 Employees 597 Assets 328
Branches 42 Employees 566 Assets 719
Serbia
Branches 56 Employees 474 Assets 713
Albania
Branches 47 Employees 1,397 Assets 935
Egypt
Romania
Branches 167 Employees 1,935 Assets 3,402
Bulgaria
Branches 83 Employees 908 Assets 1,653
Cyprus
Branches 14 Employees 323 Assets 1,278
Branch 1 Employees 14 Assets 141
Frankfurt Branch 1 Employees 18 Assets 194
% Loans Deposits
Albania 10.2% 7.8%
Bulgaria 5.0% 2.5%
Cyprus 1.2% 1.5%
Egypt 0.8% 0.6%
Romania 4.5% 1.7%
Serbia 2.6% 2.3%
Ukraine 0.3% 0.2%
London
Market Shares (Dec.’12 )
37
International Operations
International operations represent:
- 15% of gross loans
- 12% of customer deposits
- 34% of branches and workforce.
Total exposure of Piraeus Group in Cyprus amounts to €1.6 bn assets (2.0% of Group’s total assets) and it is mainly related to its 100% subsidiary Piraeus Bank Cyprus LTD:
- loans to deposits ratio at 75%;
- very liquid balance sheet.
amounts in € mn / % Gross Loans Deposits NPLs
Albania 414 522 32%
Bulgaria 1,467 748 22%
Cyprus 856 1,069 15%
Egypt 518 794 24%
Romania 3,052 896 28%
Serbia 595 307 16%
Ukraine 271 96 50%
London 143 21 13%
Frankfurt 23 105 7%
TOTAL 7,338 4,559 25%
Exposure to Cyprus
38
Greek and Regional Economies
39
GDP (y-o-y % change, nsa data)
Greek Economy (I)
The Greek economy has reached a turning point: sentiment and expectations have shifted from negative to positive (perhaps too positive), but there will be some delay before this improvement is reflected in the macroeconomic data. According to Piraeus baseline scenario, the substantial contraction in Q4’12 (due to the negative carry-over effect) will spill over into H1’13. Furthermore, economic activity in H1’13 will be affected by the implementation of the new fiscal consolidation measures.
In order to counterbalance the adverse effects of the new fiscal measures the Greek government should:
continue to forcefully implement the Economic Adjustment Programme so that the Greek economy continues to receive funding from the Troika and positive sentiment is further reinforced.
accelerate the privatisation process and improve the absorption of EU funds. This will provide the necessary capital to kick-start a positive investment cycle in the economy.
clear its arrears with the public sector’s suppliers, which will improve liquidity conditions in the economy and give a “business as usual” feeling to the corporate and household sector.
Sources: ELSTAT, Ministry of Finance, IMF Country Report No 13/20, January 2013, Piraeus Bank Economic Research
Economic Outlook
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Piraeus Bank 2013
Real GDP Growth (YoY % change) -0.2 -3.1 -4.9 -7.1 -6.4 -5.5 to -6.5 Nominal GDP (bn €) 233.2 231.1 222.2 208.5 193.7 180 to 182 (y-o-y % change) 4.5 -0.9 -3.9 -6.1 -7.1 -6.0 to -7.0 Inflation 4.2 1.2 4.7 3.3 1.5 0.5 to 1.5 GDP Deflator rate 4.7 2.3 1.1 1.0 -0.8 -0.5 to -1.0 Unemployment rate (% of labour force) 7.6 9.5 12.5 17.7 24.2 28.0 to 30.0
Current Account Deficit (bn €) 34.8 25.8 22.5 20.6 5.6 3.0 to 5.0 (% of GDP) 14.9 11.2 10.1 9.9 2.9 1.6 to 2.8 General Government Primary Balance (billion €) -11.2 -24.2 -10.9 -4.8 -2.9 balanced (% of GDP) -4.8 -10.5 -4.9 -2.3 -1.5 General Government Debt (bn €) 263.3 299.7 329.5 355.8 307.2 320 (% of GDP) 112.9 129.7 148.3 170.6 157.5 176 to 178
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Q4/02 Q4/03 Q4/04 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/07 Q4/08 Q4/09 Q4/10 Q4/11 Q4/12
Constant prices Current prices
40
Even if it is early, we consider that the February data for the State Budget execution signal a positive start towards the achievement of the fiscal consolidation targets
In February, the primary balance reached a surplus despite the target being a deficit, and showed an improvement compared to last year. The state budget deficit increased in comparison to Feb.’12, however, it still remained below the projected level. Specifically, ordinary budget net revenues were slightly increased and expenditures were greatly decreased (mainly due to the reduction of primary expenditure) compared to the monthly targets. Moreover, the PIP budget was lower than the monthly target
Greece achieved the MoU milestones for January and February. Against this background, the EFSF has disbursed 2 tranches totalling €4.8 bn and the IMF an additional amount of €3.24 bn. Moreover, a further €7.2bn to cover banks recapitalization needs and resolution costs has already been approved and its disbursement by the EFSF is pending
Disbursements of the Economic Programmes (€ bn)(b)
Greek Economy (II)
State Budget Execution
€m (modified cash basis) Jan-Feb 12' Outcome
Jan-Feb 13' Outcome
Jan-Feb 13' Target (a)
Ordinary Budget balance (a-b) -1,495 -1,393 -2,460
(a) Net revenue Ordinary Budget 8,067 7,750 7,515
(b) Expenditure Ordinary Budget 9,562 9,143 9,975
Primary expenditure 8,635 7,738 8,504
PIP Balance (c-d) 1,000 605 -170
(c) Revenue PIP 1,191 884 430
(d) Expenditures PIP 191 279 600
State Budget Balance -495 -789 -2,630
State Budget Primary Balance 368 487 -1,353
20.0
29.1 31.6 38.1 53.1
65.0 73.1 111.8
143.5
147.7 148.7
183.0 188.2 191.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
EU - EFSF other tranches Bank recapitalisation PSI & DBB
EU -Bilateral IMF Total (cumulative), RHS
Sources: MinFin, EFSF, Eurogroup & IMF statements, Piraeus Bank calculations (a) Targets as included in the revised Medium Term Fiscal Strategy 2013-20 (b) Distribution of €7.2 bn for bank recapitalization needs and resolution costs is still pending
41
SEE Macro Outlook
Twin Deficits General Comments:
Starting from a low base, economic activity in the SEE region is expected to improve during 2013.
The negative spillover effect from the European Union is high, through both real and financial channels.
External imbalances persist, although in most cases improvements are expected during the year.
Fiscal measures have proved effective for most countries. However, the IMF is expected to increase its involvement in the region
Country Specifics: Romania: the new government must reach a new agreement with the IMF within the year, while growth is expected to rebound in 2013.
Bulgaria: the resignation of the prime minister will lead the country to early elections in May. Political uncertainty creates downside risks for economic activity; but fiscal prudence and an improving current account provide hopeful signs.
Albania: strong ties to Greece and Italy will keep economic activity subdued in the current year, but it will still outperform its peers
Serbia: the main challenges for the country this year will be the tough external financing conditions, the high levels of inflation and political uncertainty
Ukraine: the combination of fiscal and current account deficits, in conjunction with a lack of external funding creates substantial devaluation risks for the local currency. A new arrangement with the IMF will provide a positive signal about the determination to enact structural changes.
Egypt: growth remains at a standstill due to the ongoing political uncertainty, threatening macroeconomic stability. The Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF (USD 4.8 bn) is expected to resume as foreign exchange reserves hit a record low
Real GDP (% y-o-y) Inflation
Fiscal Balance (% GDP)
Current Account Balance (% GDP)
2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013
Albania 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 -3.4 -3.5 -11.5 -11.0 Bulgaria 0.7 1.1 2.9 3.0 -0.5 -2.0 -0.7 -1.0 Cyprus -2.3 -- 2.4 -- -4.9 -- -5.9 -- Egypt 2.2 2.5 8.7 9.5 -10.8 -10.5 -3.1 -4.0 Romania 0.5 1.1 3.3 4.0 -2.4 -2.5 -3.6 -4.0 Serbia -1.7 1.0 7.3 10.0 -5.7 -5.0 -11.5 -9.5 Ukraine 0.2 1.0 0.6 5.0 -4.3 -3.5 -8.0 -7.0
Public Debt Dynamics
Albania
Bulgaria
Cyprus Egypt Romania
Serbia
Ukraine
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5
Curr
ent A
ccou
nt D
efic
it (%
of G
DP)
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
0102030405060708090
100
Cyprus Egypt Albania Serbia Ukraine Romania Bulgaria
% of GDP
The blue columns represent countries that have either taken or are in talks for financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund
Sources: Piraeus Bank Research, Νational Statistical Sources
Table of Economic Forecasts
42
SEE Macro Outlook
Gross Domestic Product (Seasonally Adjusted) Following a week of negotiations, on March 25th the Eurogroup, along with the Cypriot government reached a final decision regarding the final amount of financial assistance from the troika and the necessary actions concerning the local banking sector
Out of the total financial assistance of about €16bn, troika will provide €10bn, on the assumption that a larger amount would not allow public debt to be viable. As such, €5.8bn will be provided by a one-off “haircut” on uninsured deposits over €100,000 and the downsizing of the local banking sector: namely, the restructuring of the two largest banks in Cyprus, Laiki Bank and Bank of Cyprus
Following this agreement, the European Central Bank assured the continuation of liquidity assistance to the Cypriot banking system through the ELA mechanism
The government and troika are expected to finalize the MoU by the third week of April
Excluding the Public Sector and the Wholesale/Retail Sale Sector, the Cypriot economy is based on three main sectors of economic activity: Tourism, Real Estate and the Financial Sector (including Legal and Consulting Services). In the medium- term, we expect the creation of a new fourth growth driver based on gas exploitation
As the Real Estate sector has been in deep recession for the last few years, the swift downsizing of the banking sector, essentially means that the Cypriot economy will lose two out of the three growth drivers
In order to fully evaluate the magnitude of the potential losses for the Cypriot economy, one must consider that according to the System of National Accounts, the gross value added of the banking sector is directly linked to the total amount of loans and deposits, as well as the relevant interest rate margins. Thus, the downsizing of the banking sector is expected to significantly affect the dynamics of the local economy
What in PB’s view is highly important, is that the solution that is finally applied will be such that it can ensure the viability and prospects of the banking sector in Cyprus, which directly contributes 10% of GDP, while the indirect contribution to the economy is significantly higher
In addition it must also be noted that the country will experience recession created by the fiscal adjustment programme, which will inevitably be imposed in order to ensure the disbursement of €10bn loan. The troika is already in discussions with officials in Cyprus to define the structural changes and the fiscal measures under the Memorandum of Understanding, which are expected to amount to 4.5% of GDP. Privatizations must be one of the key priorities
Based on the aforementioned measures, economic activity in Cyprus is expected to contract in 2013 by up to 10% yoy
The Cyprus Update:
Public Debt
Sources: Piraeus Bank Research, National Statistical Institute, Ministry of Finance
-6-4-202468
1012
Mar
-05
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-09
Mar
-10
Mar
-11
Mar
-12
% YoY
Constant Prices Current Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-09
Mar
-10
Mar
-11
Mar
-12
% of GDP
Total Public DebtNet Total Debt (exl. Short-Term Liabilities of the Central Bank)
43
Appendix
44
Group Results and Balance Sheet
amounts in € mn 2012
Net Interest Income 1,028
Net Fee Income 218
Trading & Other Income 972
Total Net Revenues 2,217
Employee Costs (424)
Administrative Expenses (379)
Depreciation & Other (106)
Total Operating Costs (909)
Pre Provision Income 1,322
Impairment Charges on Loans (2,043)
Impairment Charges on Securities & Other Assets (153)
Impairment Charge on new GGBs (311)
Pre-Tax Results (1,185)
Tax 663
Net Results attrib. to SHs for Continued Ops (513)
Discontinued Operations(a) 13
P&L BALANCE SHEET
amounts in € mn Dec.2012
Cash and balances with central banks 3,308
Net loans 44,613
Securities (b) 21,997
Intangibles & goodwill 410
Fixed assets 2,419
Other assets 5,982
Discontinued Operations(a) 377
Total assets (b) 79,106
Due to banks (b) 33,356
Deposits 36,971
Debt securities 858
Other liabilities 1,726
Liabilities from discontinued operations 606
Total liabilities 73,517
Total equity (b) 5,589
Total liabilities & Equity 79,106
(a) Discontinued operations refer to Marathon Bank (up to Q3’12) and ATE Insurance & ATE Insurances Romania (as of 27.07.12)
(b) Pro-forma for €8.7 bn of EFSF bonds
45
Group Results per Region GREECE INTERNATIONAL
(a) Discontinued operations refer to ATE Insurance SA (as of 27.07.12) (b) Discontinued operations refer to Marathon Bank (up to Q3’12) and ATE Insurance
Romania (as of 27.07.12)
amounts in € mn 2012
Net Interest Income 386
Net Fee Income 52
Trading & Other Income 39
Total Net Revenues 477
Employee Costs (105)
Administrative Expenses (102)
Depreciation & Other (43)
Total Operating Costs (250)
Pre Provision Income 247
Impairment Charges on Loans (298)
Impairment Charges on Other Assets (19)
Impairment Charge on GGBs
Pre-Tax Results (69)
Tax 21
Net Results attrib. to shareholders (47)
Discontinued Operations(b) 11
amounts in € mn 2012
Net Interest Income 642
Net Fee Income 166
Trading & Other Income 932
Total Net Revenues 1,740
Employee Costs (319)
Administrative Expenses (277)
Depreciation & Other (64)
Total Operating Costs (660)
Pre Provision Income 1,075
Impairment Charges on Loans (1,745)
Impairment Charges on Other Assets (134)
Impairment Charge on GGBs (311)
Pre-Tax Results (1,116)
Tax 643
Net Results attrib. to shareholders (466)
Discontinued Operations(a) 2
46
Communication
Anthimos Thomopoulos, Deputy CEO
George Poulopoulos, CFO
George Marinopoulos, Director
Chryssanthi Bermpati, Senior Manager
Vicky Diamantopoulou, Senior Manager
4, Amerikis St., PC: 105 64, Athens
Tel. : (+30 ) 210 333 5026 - 5027 - 5062 - 5739
Fax : (+30 ) 210 333 5079
Bloomberg: TPEIR GA <F8>
Reuters: BOPr.AT
www.piraeusbank.gr
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