Scenarios

Possibilities and Uncertainties

There are as many reasons to think about the long term future of

the pipeline industry as there are to think about the short term

(quarterly/annual forecasts).

This presentation seeks to illuminate some possible long term

futures of our industry by proposing scenarios based on trends,

uncertainty, and possibilities to provoke the audience away from

undesirable circumstances and towards preferred futures.

The story arc begins with risks of infinite impact (the end of human

civilization) rises through 3 pipeline industry scenarios of the year

2052 and closes with thoughts on a positive and useful

circumstance to which we can rally.

Music: Bride in the Sparks, Masta Cuts

• Introduction

• My futures tenets

• The risks of the VUCA world we live in

• What’s driving us to the futures I describe

• 2 Scenarios to limber us up

• And one scenario closer to home

• Some conclusions and observations

• Then Discussion

Questions, Comments anytime - unless we run long

• There are many possible futures

• These futures will be shaped by people

• People have many perspectives

• Different perspectives illuminate different futures

• Valuable ideas about the future must be useful

• Useful ideas about the future must be accessible

from people’s perspectives.

• Top 5 Global Risks: Likelihood (In order)

• Extreme Weather Events

• Large Scale involuntary migration

• Major Natural Disasters

• Large Scale Terrorist Attacks

• Massive Incident of Data Fraud/Theft

• Top 5 Global Risks: Impact (In order)

• Weapons of Mass Destruction

• Extreme Weather Events

• Water Crises

• Major Natural Disasters

• Failure of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaption

“We believe the global community should work together to harness new tools to address

global catastrophic risks.” Global Challenges Foundation, 2016 report

Global Policy Challenges

Emerging Challenges

Exogenous Change

Current Challenges

1. Extreme Climate Change

2. Nuclear War

3. Global Pandemic

4. Ecological Catastrophe

5. Global System Collapse

6. Major Asteroid Impact

7. Super volcano

8. Synthetic Biology

9. Nanotechnology

10. Artificial Intelligence (AI)

11. Unknown Consequences

12. Bad Global Governance

“12 Risks that threaten Human Civilization”

Global Challenges Foundation, 2015 report

Risks not included:

• Destructive solar flares

• Vacuum collapse of the universe

• Gamma-ray burst or supernova

No effective countermeasures

• Thinking about and planning for Undesirable futures can be quite productive:

• Awareness

• Mitigation

• Preparation

• Avoidance

• Thinking about and planning for Desirable futures can be quite productive:

• Awareness

• Strengthen

• Preparation

• Active Reaching

The most likely apocalypse in our future:

An Indian-Pakistani nuclear exchange

BY THOMAS E. RICKS

MARCH 8, 2011

“The greatest risk for nuclear war in our

time is the scenario in which a Pakistan-

based terror group…touches off a

sequence of escalation that results in a

nuclear strike and response.”

"The impact on the United States is

potentially larger than people realize…

(it could) cause enough soot to go up into

the upper atmosphere that will stay for a

long time, to seriously interfere with

global agriculture." Matthew Bunn

Possibilities – Uncertainties

• Supply & Demand; Product mix, Geography,

• Technology; Information, Automation, Virtuality, Sensors

• Pipeline Regulation; Placement, Maintenance, Retirement

• Materials; Limits, NanoTech,

• Incidents; Aging Infrastructure, Pushing Limits, Acts of Terror

• Capable People; Education, Training, Artificial Intelligence

• Industry Image; Utility, Exploiter, Environmentally Friendly

• Land Rights; Legislation, Concentration of Wealth

• Beyond Capitalism; UBI, B Corps, 1%

• Technology: Labor Replacement by Machines, Material Science

Advancement, Intelligence Replacement by Machines

• Geography: Shifting Global Power Centers - China and India

Take #1 and 2 spots by 2050 (PWC)

• Population pressures: 9.8 Billion by 2050 (UN)

• Risk Factors: See previous slides

• Resource Scarcity/Abundance: Population pressures, Moving

Agricultural Belts

• Profit Motivation: Space law

• First conceived in 1895 by Russian Scientist

Konstantin Tsiolkovsky inspired by Eiffel Tower

• 22,236 Miles – 5 days at 200 mph –

Diameter of the Earth?

• The Climber looks like a truck to me – need a

pipeline

• What goes up in the pipeline?

• Fuel, Water, Air,

• Amazing Engineering challenge for hydraulics

and materials

• Regulations? Laws? Governmental Oversight?

Insurance?

• Plan to have a settlement of 1 Million people on Mars by 2050

• People never live where the resources are

• Any Pipelines will have to be manufactured, installed, tested, operated and maintained completely from local materials.

• Pipe will have to be made of local materials, most likely by additive manufacturing, with precious nanotech components imported from earth

• Labor?

• Mechanical technology?

• Inspection?

• Maintenance?

• By 2052 most pipeline installations will be performed by boring

machines with automated tailing transportation, engineered by

loose knit teams of specialists organized by consulting units with

global reach.

• Very little human intervention will be required for complete

drilling operations

• Many new pipelines will be for water

• Land rights legislation will need updating

• Protests will take many forms – including hacking and peaceful

demonstrations.

• Security will be more about protecting control of the asset and

less about physical damage.

• ILI inspection for newly installed pipelines may be continuous

performed by sensors integral to the pipe material itself.

• Could we see our first completely autonomous repair by 2052?

• Tactical thinking gets you to tomorrow, Strategic thinking means

you’re prepared for it.

• It’s hard to mitigate a risk or take advantage of an opportunity

if you aren’t aware of the possibility.

• “The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed”, Bill

Gibson ~ 1992

• Global Challenges Foundation, 2016 report

• The Case for Mars, Robert Zubrin, Arthur C. Clark, 1996

• Jumping Off The Planet, David Gerrold, 2000

• 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years, Jorgen

Randers, 2012

• “Humans Need Not Apply”, YouTube video, C.G.P. Grey, 2014

https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU