photovoltaic system & standard testing research division

School of Renewable Energy Technology, Naresuan University

Photovoltaic System & Standard Testing Research DivisionSchool of Renewable Energy Technology, Naresuan UniversityTel. & Fax. 055-963180, 055-963182 Website: http://www.sert.nu.ac.th


http://www.sert.nu.ac.th

SCHOOL OF RENEWABLE

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

Assistant Prof. Nipon KetjoyDr.-Ing. (Renewable Energy Technology) Deputy Director for Research Affairs Head of Photovoltaic System & Standard Testing Research DivisionSchool of Renewable Energy Technology, Naresuan University, Thailand

The solar power market development in Thailand

20 year of grid connected PV systems: Lessons learnt from Germany why quality matters Siam@Siam hotel, BangkokJune 5, 2012




CONTENTS

• THAILAND RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY

• POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY

• HISTORY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY

• CURRENT STATUS OF PV INSTALLATION

• SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS

• CURRENT STATUS OF FIT

• MONITOR & EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF PROJECTS




THAILAND RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY

Previous plan(REDP 15 Year)

Current plan(AEDP 10 Year)

Energy targets• Replace fossil energy (%)• Alternative energy power capacity (MW) • Thermal capacity (ktoe)• Bio-fuel (ML/day)• Replace oil (%)

12% (20% include NGV)5,6047,43313.514%

25% (not include NGV)9,1849,33539.9744%

Economic targets• Reduce oil import value• Investment of private sector

460,000 Mbaht/year382,240 Mbaht/year

574,000 Mbaht442,000 Mbaht

Environment targets• CO2 emission reduction• Carbon credit value

42 Mton/year in 202214,000 Mbaht/year

76 Mton/year in 202123,000 Mbaht

Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy




Alternative Energy Development PlanAEDP 2012-2021

4

25% of alternative energy share in final energy consumption by 2021

Low carbon society

Research and projects budget support

Private sector investment

Solar + Wind

3,200 MW

Small hydro + Pico hydro

324 MW

Bio energy

Biomass Biogas MSW

4,900 MW 600 MW 160 MW

Bio fuel

Ethanol 9 ML/day

Bio-diesel5.97 ML/day

New fuel replace diesel 25 ML/day

Replace oil 44%


THAILAND RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY




POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY

History of Solar Radiation Data in Thailand:

• Solar Radiation Map: by DEDEYearly average of daily global solar radiation (kWh/m2.day)Produced from Satellite Image data collected from 1993 to 1998

• Solar Radiation Data Base: by DEDEYearly average of hourly global solar radiation (kWh/m2.hour)Produced from Satellite Image data collected from 1995 to 2002

• Solar Radiation Monitoring Station: by DEDEMonthly average of daily global solar radiation (kWh/m2.day) on horizontal surfacemeasuring station by Pyranometer Kipp & Zonen model CM11 from 2002 tocurrently (37 station)




Thailand has relatively high potential of solar energy • Monthly distribution of solar radiation intensity in Thailand influenced by Northeast Monsoon & Southwest Monsoon.• Most of country receives the maximum solar radiation during April & May with ranging 5.56 – 6.67 kWh/m2.day.• The areas with maximum solar radiation are at Northeastern part and some areas of central region (around 14.3% of the country). • 50% of total areas receives annual average solar radiation of 5.00 –5.28 kWh/m2.day which are considered relative high.

Comparative solar radiation intensity • Annual average of total daily solar radiation of Thailand is 18.2 MJ/m2.day (5.06 kWh/m2.day).• The figure present that Thailand is one of high potential of solar energy (3.6 MJ/m2 = 1 kWh/m2).

High radiation location High radiation location

Solar radiation (MJ/m2.day)

% o

f are

as






Solar radiation at Chiang Mai from 2002 to 2010






Monthly average daily global solar radiation at Chiang Mai





POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY Unit Current capacity Targets in 2021

Electricity

1. Wind MW 7.28 1,200

2. Solar MW 150 2,000

3. Hydro MW 86.39 1,608

4. Biomass power MW 1,751 3,630

5. Biogas power MW 137.57 600

6. MSW MW 13.45 160

7. New power energy MW - 3

Thermal

8. Solar ktoe 1.98 100

9. Biomass ktoe 3,285.97 8,200

10. Biogas ktoe 378.66 1,000

11. MSW ktoe 1.26 35

Bio-fuel

12. Ethanol ML/Day 1.30 9.0

13. Bio-diesel ML/Day 1.62 5.97

14. New fuel replace diesel ML/Day - 25.0




HISTORY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY


1992 Established National Energy Policy Committee in B.E.2535 (1992)

2001 Established Bureau of Energy in 2nd November B.E.2544 (2001)

2002 Established Ministry of Energy in 9th January B.E.2545 (2002) 0.5% NRE = New & Renewable Energy

2003 Energy Strategy for Competitiveness (28th September 2003) Target 0.5% NRE to 8% NRE in 20116% electricity from RE in 2011 (1840 MW) - RPS 4%, subsidy etc.

2006 1st Adder program (4th December 2006) Solar 8 Baht/kWh

2008 Renewable Energy Development Plan : REDP 2008-2022 20% of altenative energy share in final energy consumption in 2022500 MW from Solar

2010 Stop Solar PPA license (June 2010) Announced 6.5 Baht/kWh Adder for Solar (November 2010)

2012 Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP 2012-2021 25% of alternative energy share in final energy consumption in 20212000 MW from Solar



CURRENT STATUS OF PV INSTALLATION

Source: DEDE, PEA

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,00019

83-1

987

1988

-199

2

1993

-199

7

1998

-200

2

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Inst

alla

tion

(kW

p)

Off-gird On-GridCurrently 500 – 600 MW ongoing On-Grid projects (1300 market available), FIT program ?

1st A

dder

pro

gram

8 B

aht/k

Wh

for S

olar

1st L

arge

sca

le P

V

plan

t by

BS

P

Sto

p S

olar

PPA

lic

ense

Est

ablis

hed

Min

istry

of E

nerg

y (2

002)




FIT

PPA approve 2,046 MW

• VSPP (Thermal) 1,350 MW

• VSPP (PV) 600 MW

• SPP (PV) 90 MW

PPA apply 1,589 MW

• VSPP (Thermal) 35 MW

• VSPP (PV) 1,194 MW

• SPP (PV) 360 MW

Expected to COD 1,000+ MW

Adder

CURRENT STATUS OF PV INSTALLATION

Available 1,000+ MW

PV rooftopPV farm 0.5 – 1 MW

Source: DEDE, PEA



SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS

Source: estimation from PEA data

International30%

Domestic 70%

Estimation % sharing of international vs domestic by projects number

NEDSun Edison

BSPSolar PowerGunkulBangchakYanhee




Estimation % sharing of PV modules supply by country

Source: estimation from existing projects

China50%

Japan34%

Europe & US3%

Other (Thailand)

13%




Estimation % sharing of PV modules technology by capacity

40%

60%

Thin film c-Si

Source: estimation from existing projects




Source: Estimate from DEDE, PEA, EGAT

Projects cost development (not include land cost), cost reduction in Thailand mainly influent by external effect driving

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Cos

t (U

S$/W

p)

1st Adder program 8 Baht/kWh for Solar

1st Large scale PV plant by BSP Stop Solar PPA license



CURRENT STATUS OF FIT

Source: Managing Committee on Power Generation from Renewable Energy Promotion , EPPO

• Not official announced

• 5.94 Baht/kWh propose from EPPO with assumption as follow:

Investment cost for 1 MW 70 MB IRR of equity 10 % D/E ratio 3 : 2 Debt Interest rate) 7.25 (MLR) Debt period 10 year Project period 20 year

Income tax rate 30% Tax holiday duration 8 year (BOI) Inflation rate 2.5%

Plant Factor 17%Project capacity 0.5 – 1 MW

????



CURRENT STATUS OF FIT

• Not acceptable from private sector with 5.94 Baht/kWh due to difference assumptions and understanding

• Unclear enough of FIT for solar (such as not mention PV or Solar thermal power, only single power rate range etc …)



MONITOR & EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF PROJECTS

Source: personal assumption and estimation

PV power pant quality class in Thailand (% by projects)

Class A: High quality of design, components, installation work

Class B: Medium quality of design, components, installation work

Class C: To low investment cost, low quality of design, components, installation work

30%

40%

30%

Class A Class B Class C



MONITOR & EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF PROJECTS

• Not much people understand in monitor & evaluation the performance of PV power plant projects.

• Many technical problems “hidden” in many PV power plants due to improper design, installation including components selection (consider only low investment cost).

• Lack of monitor & evaluation of projects quality from government organization. Only grid-code (interconnection regulation) from PEA/MEA/EGAT that the projects have to be compile.




We design…We build…We inspect…We take care …We test…We are Solar ManThank you - Khob Khun Krub



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