Phosphorus fluxes and balances in Europe

Kimo van Dijk O. Oenema & J. P. Lesschen

Wageningen University, kimo.vandijk@wur.nl

Symposium “Phosphorus in agriculture: where are we going?” ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 15 January 2015

Overview

Phosphorus (P) cycling & challenge Present P fluxes in Europe

● Agronomic P balances ● Food P flow and intake requirement ● Recycling

Sustainable P use options in society Potential future P use (scenario analyses)

Summary & conclusions

Phosphorus (P) cycle

Geological versus anthropogenic cycles

RESOURCE RESERVES

SINKS

Society

Crops

Animals

Industry & retail

Consumers

Non-food

Losses Inputs [90% fertilizer, and other mineral P use]

Geological cycle

Direct IMPACTS

Anthropogenic cycle

Phoshorus challenge

Non-renewable at human time scale

Spatially concentrated: geopolitical dependency and tension

Relatively low price, but price volatility (2008 case)

Decreasing P-rock quality:

● decreasing P content

● increasing impurities (e.g. cadmium)

Pollution and eutrophication

Cordell et al. 2009

R/P ratio for P, K & micronutrients

A simplistic way of expressing resource scarcity R/P ratio = reserve / production

De Haes et al. 2012

Phosphorus use in the EU-27 in 2005

Detergent, wood, paper & fibres

Crops, fish, food products & mineral additives

Animal feed, mineral additives & live animals

Mineral fertiliser, seeds & pesticides

Solid & liquid organic waste

Organic waste

Wood, paper & fibres

Slaughter residues, solid & liquid waste

Crops & food products

Manure losses

Live animals

Leaching & runoff

Seeding materials

Input Output

Soil [150,000]

Flows & stocks in Gg = Mkg = kton P per year

Van Dijk et al.(in prep.)

Import, export and losses per sector

Absolute quantity [Gg P/year]

Relative fraction (of total system import, export and losses)

Primary P import (+ secondary P = total import)

Import Export Losses Import Export Losses Gg P/year

% of total system primary import

% of total sector import

Cp 1452 4 76 61 2 7 1448 79 99.7 Ap 435 24 72 18 13 6 245 13 56.3 Fp 260 145 332 11 79 29 25 1 9.6 Nf 215 12 68 9 6 6 110 6 51.2 Hc - - 587 - - 52 - - - Total 2362 185 1135 100 100 100 1828 100

Van Dijk et al. (in prep.)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Gross import Gross export Net trade Losses Accumulation

Phos

phor

us q

uant

ity [G

g P/

year

] Primary P (rock based) input accounts for 77 % of the total input of the system

Net P input per sector & food processing flows over time for EU-27 in 2005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

P qu

antit

y pe

r cap

ita [k

g P/

ca/y

ear]

Non-food industry sector

Food processing & retail sector

Animal production sector

Crop production sector

Domestic food supply

FP food and feed production

Van Dijk et al. (in prep.)

Global fertilizer P consumption 1961-2010

FAOSTAT data 2010

Fertilizer P consumption in EU-27 in 2010

FAOSTAT data 2010

Animal feed P origin in EU-27 in 2005

Source: Miterra-Europe model, CAPRI & FAOSTAT data 2003-2005

Agronomic P balances in the EU

Annual regional agricultural P balances [kg P/ha] for EU-15 in 2000

Estimated cumulative P balances [kg P/ha] of EU countries during 1991–2005

Source: Csathó & Radimszky 2012

Source: Grizzetti & Aloe, 2007

Soil P balances in NW-Europe

Source: Lesschen et al. 2013. Options for closing the phosphorus cycle in agriculture

Average phosphate surplus in Dutch agriculture 1880-2010

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Surp

lus,

kg

P 2O

5/ha

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000Cum

ulative surplus, kg P2 O

5 /ha

AnnualCumulative

Target2015

1 kg P = 2.29 kg P2O5 Ehlert et al. 2011

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Dom

estic

food

P su

pply

[kg/

ca/y

ear]

AnimalPlant

Domestic food P supply in EU-27 in 2005

Domestic food P supply necessary to fullfill human dietary P intake requirements at consumption level

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

Minimum P intake requirement

Mean EU P intake

Maximum P intake level

Reuse of organic waste in EU-27 in 2005

Based on Barth et al. 2008

Sludge destinations in EU-27 in 2010

Source: P-Rex, FP7 project, www.p-rex.eu; based on Eurostat 2010, Milieu Ltd 2010 & Destatis 2011

P concentrations in rivers and lakes in EU regions, period 1990 - 2005

Source: European Environment Agency, 2007

Potential phosphorus losses in society

Three ‘types’ of potential P losses: ● Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, co-firing or

use in the cement industry ● Accumulation: in agricultural soils or the

environment ● Export: flows with unclear destinations

Avoidable and unavoidable losses Point and diffuse sources Direct and indirect actors

Transition towards sustainable P use

•remove non-essential P inputs (e.g. detergents) •match P requirements more closely (precision agriculture)

•utilise legacy P stores Realign P inputs

•optimise input management •minimise runoff and erosion •strategic retention zones

Reduce P losses to water

•avoid wastage •improve utilization efficiency •adopt integrated production systems

Recycle P in bioresources

•recover P in societies' wastes •produce fertilizer substitutes

Recover P in wastes

•influence dietary choice •define end-user P requirements •re-connect crop and animal production systems

Redefine P in the food chain

Withers, Van Dijk, et al. (submitted)

P recycling potential in EU-27

[Gg P/year] Total Recycled Potential

Sewage sludge 297 115 182

Biodegradable solid waste 130 38 92

Meat & bone meal 128 6 122

Total (minimum) 427 153 274

Total (maximum) 555 160 396

Mineral fertiliser use 1448 Manure use 1763

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

Potential future P use scenarios

Objectives & research questions: ● To develop a dynamic model for the analysis of the

effects of changes in drivers and nutrient management strategies on P dynamics in the food chain.

● What would be the P dynamics & food production in EU-27 in case of a stop of P import via

● Q1: mineral fertilizers? ● Q2: mineral fertilizers and animal feed?

● Q3: What are the effects of nutrient management & best management practices (BMPs)?

Dynamic Food System model

Mass balance principle

Data: Miterra-Europe, CAPRI, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, reports, articles and experts

EU-27 at country level, timesteps of one year

Entire food system + non-food

P imports, exports, losses and internal flows

Flows described dynamically as function of sector input

Crop P uptake as function of soil P stock and P application

Dynamic crop P uptake

Scenarios & best management practices

The scenarios are: ● BAU: present (~2005), Business as Usual ● S1: no P import via fertilizer ● S2: no P import via fertilizer + compound feed ● S3: as S2 + BMPs

The best management practices (BMPs) are 90 % less: ● biowaste + waste water P losses (HC) ● forestry sector losses (NF) ● slaughter waste losses (FP) ● stable manure losses (AP)

No changes in other drivers and factors, such as population, agricultural area, crop types etc.

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2005

2030

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2080

2105

2130

2155

2180

2205

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2255

2280

Aver

age

crop

P u

ptak

e [k

g P/

ha/y

ear]

BAU

SI

S2

S3

Per ha EU-27 crop P uptake per scenario for 2005-2300

50 %

25 %

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

0

500

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2500

2005

2030

2055

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Aver

age

soil

P st

ock

[kg

P/ha

]

BAUSIS2S3

Per ha EU-27 soil P stock per scenario for 2005-2300

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

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1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Fran

ce

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mbo

urg

Irela

nd

Ger

man

y

Swed

en

Uni

ted

King

dom

Belg

ium

Czec

h Re

publ

ic

Italy

Bulg

aria

Mal

ta

Denm

ark

Gre

ece

Esto

nia

Spai

n

Rom

ania

Net

herla

nds

Port

ugal

Finl

and

Slov

akia

Pola

nd

Aust

ria

Latv

ia

Hung

ary

Cypr

us

Slov

enia

BAU

S1

S2

S3

Per capita food P supply per Member State per scenario in 2050

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

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Aver

age

food

P su

pply

[kg

P/ca

/yea

r]

BAU

SI

S2

S3

Changes in per capita food P supply in EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

0

1000

2000

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4000

5000

6000

7000

2005

2030

2055

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Aver

age

dry

mat

ter y

ield

[kg

P/ha

/yea

r]

BAUSIS2S3

Changes in dry matter crop yield in EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300

50 %

33 %

Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

Conclusions for the present state

Europe is largely dependent on P imports via: ● Mineral fertilizers (60%), animal feed & additives (20%),

food (10%) & non-food materials (10%)

Ongoing P accumulation in agricultural soils, especially in western Europe by P surplusses Various recycling rates, generally low (except

manure): ● Sewage sludge P recycling ranging from 0 - 90%

● Compost P re-use ranging from 0 - 70%

Significant P losses via: ● Waterways: sewage discharge, leaching & erosion

● Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, infrastructure

High potential to improve P use efficiency

Conclusions for future scenarios

Soil P is an important stock to take into account in P dynamics, because of its buffering capacity and large size (~150.000 Gg P) A stop on P fertilizer import has a large effect on

food production, mainly on the longer term A stop on P import via fertilizer and animal feed

makes the effect even more pronounced, causing a larger and earlier drop in food production The effects can be mitigated by the implementation

of best management practices in nutrient management Additional data is necessary, especially for

downscaling to the regional level

Thank you for your attention

Questions? Comments? Suggestions? kimo.vandijk@wur.nl / kimovandijk@xs4all.nl Twitter: @kimovandijk Website: kimovandijk.weebly.com