phosphorus flows in europe and future scenarios
TRANSCRIPT
Phosphorus flows in Europe and future scenarios
Kimo van Dijk
Wageningen University
IIASA, Laxemburg, Austria23 April 2015
Overview
Phosphorus (P) cycling & challenges
Present P flows in Europe
●Agronomic P balances
●Food P supply and intake requirements
●Recycling
Sustainable P use options in society
Potential future P use (scenario analyses)
Summary & conclusions
Phosphorus (P) cycle
Geological versus anthropogenic cycles
RESOURCE RESERVES
SINKS
Society
Crops
Animals
Industry & retail
Consumers
Non-food
LossesInputs [90% fertilizer, and other mineral P use]
Geological cycle
Direct IMPACTS
Anthropogenic cycle = days to years
= millions of years
Phoshorus challenges
Non-renewable at human time scales
Spatially concentrated: geopolitical dependency and tension
Relatively low price, but price volatility (2008 case)
Decreasing P-rock quality:
● P concentration
● impurities (e.g. cadmium, uranium)
Pollution and eutrophication
Cordell et al. 2009
R/P ratio for P, K & micronutrients
A simplistic way of expressing resource scarcityR/P ratio = reserve / production
De Haes et al. 2012
Phosphorus use in the EU-27 in 2005
Detergent, wood, paper & fibres
Crops, fish, food products & mineral additives
Animal feed, mineral additives & live animals
Mineral fertiliser, seeds & pesticides
Solid & liquid organic waste
Organic waste
Wood, paper & fibres
Slaughter residues, solid & liquid waste
Crops & food products
Manure losses
Live animals
Leaching & runoff
Seeding materials
Input Output
Soil [150,000]
Flows & stocks in Gg = Mkg = kton P per year
Van Dijk et al.(subm.)
Import, export and losses per sector
Absolute quantity [Gg P/year]
Relative fraction (of total system import, export and losses)
Primary P import (+ secondary P = total import)
Import Export Losses Import Export Losses Gg P/year
% of total system primary import
% of total sector import
Cp 1452 4 76 61 2 7 1448 79 99.7
Ap 435 24 72 18 13 6 245 13 56.3
Fp 260 145 332 11 79 29 25 1 9.6
Nf 215 12 68 9 6 6 110 6 51.2
Hc - - 587 - - 52 - - -
Total 2362 185 1135 100 100 100 1828 100
Van Dijk et al. (submitted)
Gross import Gross export Net trade Losses Accumulation0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Phos
phor
us q
uanti
ty [G
g P/
year
]Primary P (rock based) input accounts for 77 % of the total input of the system
Global fertilizer P consumption 1961-2010
FAOSTAT data 2010
Fertilizer P consumption in EU-27 in 2010
FAOSTAT data 2010
Animal feed P origin in EU-27 in 2005
Source: Miterra-Europe model, CAPRI & FAOSTAT data 2003-2005
Agronomic P balances in the EU
Annual regional agricultural P balances [kg P/ha] for EU-15 in 2000
Estimated cumulative P balances [kg P/ha] of EU countries during 1991–2005
Source: Csathó & Radimszky 2012
Source: Grizzetti & Aloe, 2007
Soil P balances in NW-Europe
Source: Lesschen et al. 2013. Options for closing the phosphorus cycle in agriculture
Average phosphate surplus in Dutch agriculture 1880-2010
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Su
rplu
s,
kg
P2O
5/h
a
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000C
um
ula
tive
su
rplu
s, k
g P2 O
5 /ha
AnnualCumulative
Target2015
1 kg P = 2.29 kg P2O5 Ehlert et al. 2011
Romania
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Lithuania
Luxe
mbourg
Ireland
Denmark
France
Malta
EU-27
United Kingdom
Sweden
SloveniaSpain
Finland
Belgium
Czech
Republic
Poland
Estonia
Germany
Cyprus
Latv
ia
Hungary
Austria
Netherla
nds
Bulgaria
Slovakia0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
AnimalPlant
Dom
estic
food
P su
pply
[kg/
ca/y
ear]
Domestic food P supply in EU-27 in 2005
Domestic food P supply necessary to fullfill human dietary P intake requirements at consumption level
Van Dijk et al. (submitted)
Minimum P intake requirement
Mean EU P intake
Maximum P intake level
Reuse of organic waste in EU-27 in 2005
Based on Barth et al. 2008
Sludge destinations in EU-27 in 2010
Source: P-Rex, FP7 project, www.p-rex.eu; based on Eurostat 2010, Milieu Ltd 2010 & Destatis 2011
P concentrations in rivers and lakes in EU regions, period 1990 - 2005
Source: European Environment Agency, 2007
Potential phosphorus losses in society
Three ‘types’ of potential P losses:
●Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, co-firing or use in the cement industry
●Accumulation: in agricultural soils or the environment
●Export: flows with unclear destinations
Avoidable and unavoidable losses
Point and diffuse sources
Direct and indirect actors
Transition towards sustainable P use
• remove non-essential P inputs (e.g. detergents)
• match P requirements more closely (precision agriculture)
• utilise legacy P stores
Realign P inputs
• optimise input management• minimise runoff and erosion• strategic retention zones
Reduce P losses to water
•avoid wastage•improve utilization efficiency•adopt integrated production systems
Recycle P in bioresources
•recover P in societies' wastes•produce fertilizer substitutes
Recover P in wastes
•influence dietary choice•define end-user P requirements•re-connect crop and animal production systems
Redefine P in the food chain
Withers, Van Dijk et al. 2015
Phoshorus recycling potential EU-27
[Gg P/year]Total Recycled Potential
Sewage sludge 297 115 182
Biodegradable solid waste 130 38 92
Meat & bone meal 128 6 122
Total (minimum) 427 153 274
Total (maximum) 555 160 396
Mineral fertiliser use 1448
Manure use 1763
Van Dijk et al. (submitted)
Potential future P use scenarios
Objectives & research questions:
●To develop a dynamic model for the analysis of the effects of changes in drivers and nutrient management strategies on P dynamics in the food chain.
●What would be the P dynamics & food production in EU-27 in case of a stop of P import via
●Q1: mineral fertilizers?
●Q2: mineral fertilizers and animal feed?
●Q3: What are the effects of nutrient management & best management practices (BMPs)?
Dynamic Food System model
Mass balance principle
Data: Miterra-Europe, CAPRI,
FAOSTAT, Eurostat, reports,
articles and experts
EU-27 at country level,
timesteps of one year
Entire food system + non-food
P imports, exports, losses and
internal flows
Flows described dynamically
as function of sector input
Crop P uptake as function of
soil P stock and P application
Dynamic crop P uptake
Dynamic crop P uptakeMitscherlich yield response curve:Puptake= [a – b * exp (-c* Papplication)] * d
Scenarios & best management practices
The scenarios are:
●BAU: present (~2005), Business as Usual
●S1: no P import via fertilizer
●S2: no P import via fertilizer + compound feed
●S3: as S2 + BMPs
The best management practices (BMPs) are 90 % less:
●biowaste + waste water P losses (HC)
●forestry sector losses (NF)
●slaughter waste losses (FP)
●stable manure losses (AP)
No changes in other drivers and factors, such as population, agricultural area, crop types etc.
2005
2014
2023
2032
2041
2050
2059
2068
2077
2086
2095
2104
2113
2122
2131
2140
2149
2158
2167
2176
2185
2194
2203
2212
2221
2230
2239
2248
2257
2266
2275
2284
2293
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
BAUSIS2S3
Ave
rage
cro
p P
upta
ke [k
g P/
ha/y
ear]
Per ha EU-27 crop P uptake per scenario for 2005-2300
50 %
25 %
Van Dijk et al. (submitted)
2005
2014
2023
2032
2041
2050
2059
2068
2077
2086
2095
2104
2113
2122
2131
2140
2149
2158
2167
2176
2185
2194
2203
2212
2221
2230
2239
2248
2257
2266
2275
2284
2293
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
BAUSIS2S3
Aver
age
soil
P st
ock
[kg
P/ha
] Per ha EU-27 soil P stock per scenario for 2005-2300
Van Dijk et al. (submitted)
France
Lithuania
Luxe
mbourg
Ireland
Germany
Sweden
United Kingdom
Belgium
Czech
RepublicIta
ly
BulgariaM
alta
Denmark
Greece
Estonia
Spain
Romania
Netherla
nds
Portugal
Finland
Slovakia
Poland
AustriaLa
tvia
Hungary
Cyprus
Slovenia0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
BAUS1S2S3
Per capita food P supply per Member State per scenario in 2050
Van Dijk et al. (submitted)
2005
2014
2023
2032
2041
2050
2059
2068
2077
2086
2095
2104
2113
2122
2131
2140
2149
2158
2167
2176
2185
2194
2203
2212
2221
2230
2239
2248
2257
2266
2275
2284
2293
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
BAUSIS2S3
Aver
age
food
P su
pply
[kg
P/ca
/yea
r]
Changes in per capita food P supply in EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300
Van Dijk et al. (submitted)
2005
2014
2023
2032
2041
2050
2059
2068
2077
2086
2095
2104
2113
2122
2131
2140
2149
2158
2167
2176
2185
2194
2203
2212
2221
2230
2239
2248
2257
2266
2275
2284
2293
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
BAUSIS2S3
Aver
age
dry
matt
er y
ield
[kg
P/ha
/yea
r]
Changes in dry matter crop yield in EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300
50 %
33 %
Van Dijk et al. (submitted)
Conclusions for the present state
Europe is largely dependent on P imports via:
●Mineral fertilizers (60%), animal feed & additives (20%), food (10%) & non-food materials (10%)
Ongoing P accumulation in agricultural soils, especially in western Europe by P surplusses
Various recycling rates, generally low (except manure):
●Sewage sludge P recycling ranging from 0 - 90%
●Compost P re-use ranging from 0 - 70%
Significant P losses via:
●Waterways: sewage discharge, leaching & erosion
●Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, infrastructure
High potential to improve P use efficiency
Conclusions for future scenarios
Soil P is an important stock to take into account in P dynamics, because of its buffering capacity and large size (~150.000 Gg P)
A stop on P fertilizer import has a large effect on food production, mainly on the longer term
A stop on P import via fertilizer and animal feed makes the effect even more pronounced, causing a larger and earlier drop in food production
The effects can be mitigated by the implementation of best management practices in nutrient management
Additional data is necessary, especially for downscaling to the regional level
Thank you for your attention
Questions? Comments? Suggestions?
[email protected] / [email protected]
Twitter: @kimovandijk
Website: kimovandijk.weebly.com