philipp aerni — lock in situations in the global debates on climate change and biotechnology ...
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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.TRANSCRIPT
Lock-in situations in the global debates on climate change and
biotechnology: Evidence from a global stakeholder survey
Philipp AerniUniversity of Bern and ETH Zurich
International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS)
November 6-8, Beijing, China 2011
Table of Contents
1. Biotechnology and the Environment
2. The purpose of the study
3. Online Survey with Stakeholders
4. Cluster and Policy Network Analysis
5. Concluding Remarks
1. Biotechnology and the Environment
Remembering Agenda 21 and Article 19 in the Convention on Biological Diversity
No matter what is at stake (energy, biodiversity,climate change, food security), biotech will be crucial – but it is not considered ‘clean tech’
from Environmentally Sound Technology (EST)to ‘Toxic Waste’ - without any serious incident
Biotechnology will help transform a problematicpetro-chemical economy into a bio-economy
The issue is hardly touched upon in climate talksCan we afford this??
2. The purpose of the study
Is it because framing shapes perception?
Biotechnology already makes great contributions tomitigation and adaptation of climate change,renewables and low-emission industrial products
Why do the global debates not mix?
Is it because of influential stakeholders want to keep the debates apart?How much does institutional and educational background matter?
Global Stakeholder Survey on CC and Biotech
3. Online Survey with Stakeholders
• Questionnaire Design:1. Potential of Biotechnology2. Statements (Baseline Assumptions)3. Policy Network Table (Assessed Influence)4. General Information (Educational Background)
• Pre-Tests, Consultation of Key Informants
• Online Survey (1 July to 1 November 2010)
• 55 Stakeholders representing 44 institutions > 80% response rate> 73% with a PhD
Distribution of respondents in terms ofinstitutional categories
Self-assessed familiarity with debates
4. Some Results
3. Policy Network Analysis (Influence Analysis)
2. Perception Pattern Analysis (Clusters, Biplot)
1. Descriptive Analysis (General Perception)
Descriptive Analysis:Assessment of the Potential of Biotechnology
Assessment of the Impact of Different Tools
Statements related to baseline assumptions
Perception Pattern Analysis
Cluster Analysis (Ward Cluster Method) & Canonical Discriminant Analysis > Perception Patterns
Factor Analysis > Determination of Vector Variables based on questionnaire items
Biplot Analysis (Visualization technique of PCA)> Identification of perception of each single respondent
Non-Parametric Tests Identification of link between educational/institutionalbackground and perception
Cluster and Biplot Analysis
Cluster Analysis reveals two large clusters of equal size, one cluster half the size and a fringe cluster (3 obs)
Canonical Discriminant Analysis reveals that there is a significant relationship between the canonical variates and the clusters
Policy Network Analyis (Stakeholder assessment)
1. How well-known is the actor?
2. Influence on global public opinion
3. Influence on the biotechnology debate
4. Influence on the climate change debate
Greenpeace and WWF always among the top fiveLock-In Situations (Costs of changing position are too high)
5. Tentative Conclusions
Shifting narratives (Baselines assumptions are changing)
Global stakeholders believe in the potential of biotechnology
Fringe perception of powerful actors ensure deadlock
Lock-In situations of the powerful actors explain why shifting narratives do not - translate into new public policy, - change the education system and - lead to a reframe of sustainable development