PHILIP ALLAN UPDATES EDEXCEL GEOGRAPHY 2008

UNIT 1 WORLD AT RISK Cameron Dunn, Chief Examiner

SESSION 1

Introducing climate change at AS

1. Basic ideas and themes – what are we aiming for?

Students will need to develop and understanding that:

Climate has changed in the past, on a range of timescales The causes of climate change are both natural and human Recent global warming is unprecedented; humans are (most likely) to blame Global warming will have direct ecological, environmental and economic impacts, as well as

indirect impacts Predicting impacts is fraught with difficulty Global warming is a serious chronic hazard (as opposed to a ‘rare’ one like an asteroid strike) which has potentially catastrophic and irreversible impacts Adaptation and Mitigation strategies can both be used to cope There is disagreement about what should be done, and difficult choices will need to be

made

2. Climate Change

Students need to develop an understanding that climate changes on a range of different timescales: Geological – basically the

cycle of ice ages Historical – broadly, recorded

changes sine AD 0 Recent – the global warming

‘era’ especially since 1970

Ice ages and interglacials occur at regular intervals during the Quaternary, and this correlates well with know CO2 concentrations from ocean and ice cores.

Historical sources:1

Proxy records (indirect indicators of past climate) are a useful source of data for the historical period.

They include artistic and photographic sources, time series data such as grape harvest dates, and written descriptions and records.

They seem to clearly indicate two different climatic periods in the past:

The Medieval Warm Period (sometimes called the Medieval Climate Optimum) – dating from around 800-1300AD. The end of this period coincides with the Black Death.The Little Ice Age – from about 1550-1880, but with colder spells around 1770 and 1850.

Students need to be aware that the use of proxy data is fraught with difficult as:Extremes tend to be better recorded than ‘normal’ conditionsLong time series data are rareIt is unclear, in some cases, what climatic variable correlates best with the proxy i.e. frosts, temperature, rainfall etc. Much data may have been lost

The Thames Frost Fair, 1814

Victorian ramblers on a Swiss glacier

Burgundy grape harvest dates

Climate change Most probable cause

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Ice Ages in Geological time

(glacial / interglacial cycles)

(1000s-10,000s years)

It is generally accepted that Milankovitch cycles are the basic cause i.e. orbital variations cause a change in the amount, distribution and seasonal timing of solar radiation.It is often said the such variations amount to about 0.5C and that feedback mechanisms (such as albedo from increased snow cover) are required to ‘tip’ the earth into or out of an ice age – the temperature difference between the two is about 5C.

Historical changes

( LIA / MWP)

(several 100 years)

Both the LIA and MWP have been linked to changes in solar output, on timescales longer than the well-known 11 year sunspot cycle.There is evidence of increased volcanic activity (ash, volcanic aerosols and suplhur dioxide block out incoming solar radiation) during the LIA, less so of decreased activity during the MWP.

Global Warming

(several decades)

The scientific consensus is that increased greenhouse gas emissions trap more outgoing solar radiation in the lower atmosphere, generating a net warming – the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Global Dimming This is the theory that increased SO2 and NOx emissions work against the enhanced greenhouse effect - CO2 and CH4 = warming but SO2 = cooling (through blocking out sunlight i.e. dimming), therefore we have yet to experience the full effect of GW.

One school of thought links sharply rising temperatures since 1990, to the effort in MEDCs to clean up acid rain forming pollution (NOx and SO2) i.e. as the atmosphere has been ‘cleaned’ we have seen a rising amount of solar radiation getting through to the lower atmosphere.

Worth thinking about?

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What conclusion would you have drawn in 1975 when presented with this graph?

..and in 2008 when presented with this graph?

Make students aware of the difficulties of both determining the extent of global warming so far, and suggesting what the future might hold.Talk of an ice age was common in the 1970s; since the late 1970s there has been uninterupted warming of about 0.5C but warming also occurred from 1910-1940, only to fall back and stabilise in the 1950s and 1960s.

3. Tricky Topics 1 – global warming

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Scientific consensus? Joint Science Academies statement, 2005

Prediction?

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Students need to be aware that ‘crystal ball gazing’ for global warming is very difficult. This is why the IPCC produce 6 different scenarios for warming and sea level rise. There is huge uncertainty in many areas:

Physical systems The type and nature of positive and negative feedback mechanisms The possibility (or not) of a ‘tipping point’ The role of the oceans (circulation and carbon sink) The reaction of forests to rising temperatures (grow more, or experience stress) The reaction of ice shelves and ice sheetsHuman geography Population growth Economic growth Future fuel mix Public behaviour and lifestyle modification

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf

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Global warming is just unfair?

(maps from the Met Office, Climate and Environmental Stresses)

The table below shows a generalised mapping exercise using the 4 Met Office maps of key areas at risk from climate change in terms of water stress, flooding, crop yields and human health.It is clear that 4 global regions bear 3 or 4 of the 4 risks. These are of course the poorest regions with the largest number of conflicts, debt, dependency in aid, failed states etc. etc. Note how the regions with the lowest carbon emissions are expected to suffer the most.

Water stress and Drought

Flooding Crop Yield Human Health

Carbon emissions per capita

(2002/ tonnes)

North America 19.6Central America & Carib. 3.1South America 2.2Europe 8.4Central Africa 0.8Southern Africa 0.8North Africa 4.0Middle East/ Near East 4.0Russia/ Central Asia 10.1South Asia 2.3SE Asia 2.3Oceania 12.2

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What should be done – glossary

Adaptation Putting in place management strategies to cope with a changing climate, such as constructing improved flood defences or creating a more efficient water distribution network. Many strategies are high cost.

Mitigation Putting in place management strategies to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and reduce the potential for further global warming, such as switching to renewable energy sources.

Contraction & convergence A mitigation framework which argues the developed world should reduce its per capita carbon emissions, whilst allowing the developing world to increase theirs and allow development to take place. The overall effect would be a reduction in total emissions.

ETS The EU Emissions Trading Scheme which began in 2005. All major polluters in the EU (such as power stations and cement works) are given a ‘carbon cap’. To pollute above this cap, carbon credits have to be bought; polluting below the cap means carbon credits can be sold.

‘Son of Kyoto’ The post-2012 agreement that will replace the Kyoto Protocol. Work on this began in Bali in 2007. There is a growing consensus that it needs to be tough.

Geo-engineering Mega-scale engineering projects to change the earth’s environment and make it more habitable. Well known options are mass ocean seeding with iron filings to promote algal growth (and therefore carbon sequestration), using mirrors in space to block out some solar radiation and stratospheric sulphur spraying to create a cooling aerosol blanket.

Stabilization wedges A structure for mapping emissions reductions from different economic sectors. (see below)

Tipping point The concern that the climate system will ‘switch’ to a new, stable, but very different ‘norm’ rather than gradually change. Sometimes this is referred to as ‘dangerous’ climate change. Some researchers think the point could be 450-550ppm carbon dioxide.

Polluter Pays Principle The costs of pollution should be born by the polluter. It is widely accepted in law but often ignored.

Carbon sequestration Increasingly, this is taking to mean large scale ‘carbon capture and storage’ (CCS) i.e. stripping C)2 out of power station emissions and burying it underground in spent oil and gas reservoirs, salt mines and porous rocks. It would allow the energy balance to remain as it is.

Hierarchy of Actions The view that global warming needs to be tackled at international (Kyoto etc.), national (UK renewable energy targets), local (recycling schemes) and personal (switching lightbulbs) scales, all at the same time.

Uncertainty Principle The decision making process that sets the costs and benefits of acting to limit climate change now, against the costs and benefits of doing nothing. The Stern Review suggested the cost of doing nothing was around 20% of GDP.

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What should be done – think wedges!

A key issue is to help students understand what might be done to mitigate against ‘dangerous’ climate change.The idea of stabilisation wedges from Princeton University provides a useful structure to allow a greater understanding to develop.

The basic concept is shown here (adapted from ‘the Guardian’). The graph shows the predicted increase in carbon dioxide levels to 2030. An increase to 43.7 billion tonnes equates to a carbon dioxide concentration of 450-500 ppm – in other words about the level considered by many to be ‘dangerous’ (unavoidable increase of 2C).

The Princeton ‘wedge’ game assumes a need to stabilise CO2 levels at about 280ppm by 2050 and identifies the task as a ‘stabilisation triangle’ showing how much carbon dioxide needs to be removed for the system (the Guardian image shown here is aiming for a much lower level).

The triangle is then divided up into a series of 7 wedges, each of which can be achieved by a different reduction strategy such as :

Efficiency Fuel switching Ending deforestation Carbon Capture and Storage

Some of the strategies are suitably controversial (nuclear power) and it is possible for students to come up with their own ideas i.e. replacing one they dislike with their own strategy.

The full game has been copied for you and can also be found at:

http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/stabwedge.htm

http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/CMI_Stab_Wedges_Movie.swf for a flash video introduction you can use before the Game

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Something your average 17 year old can understand: VED

Car tax, or VED (Vehicle Excise Duty) is one the minds of the average 17 year old. The UK government is using VED as one of the key planks of its mitigation strategy. The aim is to use the tax system to change our car buying behaviour.

VED linked to carbon dioxide emissions was first introduced in 1998 (see table, right).

There is evidence that this policy has worked, as car sales in Ban G have fallen since 2000, and sales in Band C have risen sharply (see graph).

The 2008 budget changed the system to introduce more VED bands, and penalise heavily polluting cars with a ‘showroom tax’ and higher annual VED:

CO2 emissions (g/km)From 2010-11

Tax band‘Showroom Tax’ (Yr 1 + VED) Subsequent years

Up to 100 (VW Polo Bluemotion 1.4 Tdi) 0 0 A

101-110 (Citroen C1 1.0i) 0 £20 B

111-120 (Vauxhall Corsa 1.0i) 0 £35

C

121-130 (Ford Focus 1.6 TDCi) 0 £95 D

131-140 (Renault Kangoo 1.5 DCi) £115 £115 E

141-150 (Citroen C4 Picasso 1.6 HDi) £125 £125 F

151-160 (BMW 3-series 320i) £155 £155 G

161-170 (Citroen C5 2.2 Hdi) £250 £180 H

171-180 (Ford Mondeo 1.6 Estate) £300 £210 I

181-200 (Rover 75 1.8i Club SE) £425 £270 J

201-225 (Peugeot 407 saloon 2.0 Auto) £550 £310 K

226-255 (Mercedes Benz E350 £750 £430 L

CO2 emissions (g/km) 2008-09 tax Tax band

Up to 100 0 A

101-120 £35 B

121-150 (Renault Kangoo 1.5 DCi) £120 C

151-165 £145 D

166-185 (Rover 75 1.8 Club SE) £170 E

Over 186 £210 F

Over 226 £400 G

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% of UK car sales by VED tax band

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2000

2006

% all sales

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

Over 255 (BMW X5) £950 £455 M

SESSION 3:

Resourcing the Compulsory case studies : The Arctic

Why the Arctic? It is generally agreed that the Artic will react more strongly to global warming than any other

region, so in that sense it is both a barometer of the impacts, and an early warning. Most models estimate warming will be double the global average in the Arctic.

In addition, there are indigenous people, which there are not in the Antarctic. The region is a zone of increasing resource exploitation, and potential conflict, as fossil fuels

are minerals run out. There is no ‘Arctic Treaty’ so the region is potentially vulnerable to disagreement.

Race to claim the Arctic22 December 2007 From New Scientist Print Edition. Rowan Hooper "This isn't the 15th century," exclaimed an indignant Canadian foreign minister. "You can't go around the world and just plant flags and say: 'We're claiming this territory'." Except that's exactly what Russia did in August when it audaciously plonked a flag on the seabed under the North Pole, and lodged a claim of sovereignty with the United Nations.

Protestations apart, Canada has hardly been idle itself in the Arctic. In its own show of strength, in July it announced it would spend a hefty US$7 billion patrolling the Arctic Circle with icebreakers, and after Russia planted its flag, Canada announced plans for a military training base on Nunavut in its far north.

The dash to claim the "Arctic El Dorado" is well and truly on, and the reasons why the race started in earnest in 2007 are twofold. First, the summer sea ice melted more than ever. This means the prospect of plundering the Arctic seabed for its riches of oil, gas and minerals is closer than ever. Similarly, the fabled North-West Passage became navigable for the first time, which could slash thousands of miles off the shipping route from Europe to Asia.

The second reason is that claims to the Arctic shelf made under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea must be made within a decade of ratifying it, so Russia only has until 2009, Canada until 2013, and Denmark until 2014.

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As the ice melts, the Arctic squabbling continues. Denmark says it has a claim to the North Pole, via its self-governing province of Greenland. The Canadians say the pole is theirs, while Russia has already set down its flag. Funny how there's less clamour to preserve the ice than there is to plunder the riches beneath it.

There are growing concerns about the future of the Arctic, these can be summarized as:

Fears over the future of the Greenland Ice Cap. Recent research suggests melting is increasing, and the rate of melting is beyond the range of most predictions.

Fears over the loss of ecosystems associated with the tundra. Whilst biodiversity is low, within certain species groups it is very high; Arctic flora and fauna cannot migrate north, unlike lower latitude ecosystems.

Fears that this vulnerable area will be the next great resource frontier (see article above) adding to pressures from climate change.

Concerns that culture and tradition among the indigenous people will be swept aside as climate change accelerates.

In terms of indigenous people, the Arctic has a population of about 4 million, but there are numerous indigenous groups and sub-groups:

Despite much modernization, many indigenous people are still heavily dependent, directly, on the natural environment for some or all of their resources. In this sense they are especially vulnerable to change.

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In Alaska, significant changes are already being felt by humans :

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Arctic climate headlines: 3-4C warming since the 1950s 6-8C warming by 2100 considered a distinct possibility Increased river discharge 10% decline in snow cover since late 1970s 10-20% decline in snow cover expected by 2070 Precipitation increased 8% since 1900, mostly as rain; further

increases expected Permafrost has warmed by 2C since 1970s; shifts northward of

the permafrost zone of 100s km are expected.

Summary of observed and potential ecological impacts:

Area of concern Observed impacts Potential impactsOutbreaks of insects Spruce bark beetle is already on the

rise; up to 2 million hectares of spruce forest already damaged

Likely to increase, as 2 year + hard frosts become rare and beetle larvae survive

Forest fires Areas burned have doubled in western North America since the 1970s

A further 80% increase in annual forest fires is expected by 2100

Agriculture Little impact so far Significant changes could increase growing seasons, allowing more land to be converted to grazing

Polar Bears Growing concern over falling numbers in some regions

An ice free Arctic could see populations crash, as bears rely on ice for transport; populations used to isolation are unlikely to survive increasing contact with Browns and Grizzlys

Ice dependent seals These are seals which give birth on sea ice, and haul themselves onto sea ice e.g. ringed seals

Similar to polar bears, many species so depend on sea ice that their populations may become extinct.

Cod and Shrimp These fisheries have already been observed as closely related to climate

Cod populations could expand hugely as climate warms, whereas shrimp populations are likely to crash

Tundra Plants Vegetations zones are already changing, with and advance of forests and loss of grassland

If permafrost continues to melt, long term waterlogging will significantly change flora and insect life over large areas, with knock-on effects to large mammals.

Ice crusting This occurs when unexpected winter thaws are followed by fresh snowfall; this prevents Lemmings, Musk Ox and Caribou from digging through the snow to forage

Population collapses are highly likely due to winter starvation

Summary The arctic ecosystem is highly vulnerable as it is deeply adapted to an intense, seasonal climate. It relies upon a continuous, very cold winter.There is evidence that this winter is fast disappearing to be replaced by more variable cold-thaw conditions which lead to iceing, fails to kill pests, and promotes waterlogging. Many species are not in a position to migrate to new latitudes, and others which depend directly on sea ice may simply disappear.

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January 8, 2008 (New York Times)

In Greenland, Ice and Instability By ANDREW C. REVKIN

The ancient frozen dome cloaking Greenland is so vast that pilots have crashed into what they thought was a cloud bank spanning the horizon. Flying over it, you can scarcely imagine that this ice could erode fast enough to dangerously raise sea levels any time soon. Along the flanks in spring and summer, however, the picture is very different. For a lengthening string of warm years, a lacework of blue lakes and rivulets of meltwater have been spreading ever higher on the ice cap. The melting surface darkens, absorbing up to four times as much energy from the sun as unmelted snow, which reflects sunlight. Natural

drainpipes called moulins carry water from the surface into the depths, in some places reaching bedrock. The process slightly, but measurably, lubricates and accelerates the grinding passage of ice toward the sea. Most important, many glaciologists say, is the breakup of huge semis-ubmerged clots of ice where some large Greenland glaciers, particularly along the west coast, squeeze through fjords as they meet the warming ocean. As these passages have cleared, this has sharply accelerated the flow of many of these creeping, corrugated, frozen rivers. All of these changes have many glaciologists “a little nervous these days — shell-shocked,” said Ted Scambos, the lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., and a veteran of both Greenland and Antarctic studies. Some fear that the rise in seas in a warming world could be much greater than the upper estimate of about two feet in this century made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year. (Seas rose less than a foot in the 20th century.) The panel’s assessment did not include factors known to contribute to ice flows but not understood well enough to estimate with confidence. All the panel could say was, “Larger values cannot be excluded.”A scientific scramble is under way to clarify whether the erosion of the world’s most vulnerable ice sheets, in Greenland and West Antarctica, can continue to accelerate. The effort involves field and satellite analyses and sifting for clues from past warm periods, including the last warm span between ice ages, which peaked about 125,000 years ago and had sea levels 12 to 16 feet higher than today’s. The Arctic Council, representing countries with Arctic territory, has commissioned a report on Greenland’s environmental trends, to be completed before the 2009 climate-treaty talks in Copenhagen, at which the world’s nations have pledged to settle on a long-term plan for limiting human-caused global warming.

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Key Arctic web resources:

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administrations Arctic resource pages: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/

The IPCC 4th Assessment regional report chapter (15) on impacts in the Polar Regions:http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) 2005http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

The Arctic Council websitehttp://www.arctic-council.org/

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