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TRANSCRIPT
Phenol Asiarsquos Rising Capacity and Changing Trade Flow
Trisha Huang
Senior Editor ICIS Pricing
APIC Conference
May 2014 Pattaya Thailand
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Agenda
Phenol Acetone
bull Rising Asian capacity led by China
bull Phenol supplydemand
bull Acetone supplydemand
bull Prices and margins
Bisphenol A (BPA)
bull Capacity expansion
bull Prices and margins
Potential Market
bull India
bull Supplydemand
wwwiciscom
China High phenolacetone import dependency until 2010
365kt
489kt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume Acetone Import Volume
Phenol Import Reliance Acetone Import Reliance
MTYear
Source ICIS China
wwwiciscom
Asian PhenolAcetone capacity May 2014
Unit metric tonnesyear Phenol Acetone Note
Asia excluding China India 343 million 202 million
China 165 million 1 million
Subtotal (May 2014) 508 million 302 million
Less plant closure (250kt) (90kt) Mitsui Chemicals Sept 2014
2014 Expansion 1 million 600kt
Total by end 2014 583 million 353 million
2015 Expansion 550kt 335kt
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone capacity expansion 2014-2017
Company Location Country Phenol
(ktyear) Acetone (ktyear)
Start-up
Sinopec Yanshan Beijing China (+) 125 (+) 75 Q3 2014
Kingboard Huizhou China (+) 75 (+) 45 Q3 2014
Sinopec Mitsui (SSMC) Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q3 2014
FCFC Ningbo Zhejiang China 300 180 Early Q4 2014
Cepsa Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South Korea 300 180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut Thailand 250 155 Q4 2015
Ineos Nanjing Jiangsu China 400 250 End 2016
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong China 220 130 20162017
PTT Map Ta Phut Thailand (+) 50 (+30) Q2 2017
222 million 135 million
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenol import dependency may slump further
594kt
365kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear China imported 365kt
of phenol in 2013 down by 39 from
2012
Sources ICIS China China Customs
Chinarsquos 2014 phenol imports may decline by 45 from 2013 (ICIS China)
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos slowing phenol apparent demand growth
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume
Phenol Output
Phenol Apparent Demand
MTYear
165m 173m
Chinarsquos phenol apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
Sou
rces ICIS C
hin
a Ch
ina C
usto
ms
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Agenda
Phenol Acetone
bull Rising Asian capacity led by China
bull Phenol supplydemand
bull Acetone supplydemand
bull Prices and margins
Bisphenol A (BPA)
bull Capacity expansion
bull Prices and margins
Potential Market
bull India
bull Supplydemand
wwwiciscom
China High phenolacetone import dependency until 2010
365kt
489kt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume Acetone Import Volume
Phenol Import Reliance Acetone Import Reliance
MTYear
Source ICIS China
wwwiciscom
Asian PhenolAcetone capacity May 2014
Unit metric tonnesyear Phenol Acetone Note
Asia excluding China India 343 million 202 million
China 165 million 1 million
Subtotal (May 2014) 508 million 302 million
Less plant closure (250kt) (90kt) Mitsui Chemicals Sept 2014
2014 Expansion 1 million 600kt
Total by end 2014 583 million 353 million
2015 Expansion 550kt 335kt
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone capacity expansion 2014-2017
Company Location Country Phenol
(ktyear) Acetone (ktyear)
Start-up
Sinopec Yanshan Beijing China (+) 125 (+) 75 Q3 2014
Kingboard Huizhou China (+) 75 (+) 45 Q3 2014
Sinopec Mitsui (SSMC) Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q3 2014
FCFC Ningbo Zhejiang China 300 180 Early Q4 2014
Cepsa Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South Korea 300 180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut Thailand 250 155 Q4 2015
Ineos Nanjing Jiangsu China 400 250 End 2016
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong China 220 130 20162017
PTT Map Ta Phut Thailand (+) 50 (+30) Q2 2017
222 million 135 million
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenol import dependency may slump further
594kt
365kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear China imported 365kt
of phenol in 2013 down by 39 from
2012
Sources ICIS China China Customs
Chinarsquos 2014 phenol imports may decline by 45 from 2013 (ICIS China)
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos slowing phenol apparent demand growth
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume
Phenol Output
Phenol Apparent Demand
MTYear
165m 173m
Chinarsquos phenol apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
Sou
rces ICIS C
hin
a Ch
ina C
usto
ms
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Agenda
Phenol Acetone
bull Rising Asian capacity led by China
bull Phenol supplydemand
bull Acetone supplydemand
bull Prices and margins
Bisphenol A (BPA)
bull Capacity expansion
bull Prices and margins
Potential Market
bull India
bull Supplydemand
wwwiciscom
China High phenolacetone import dependency until 2010
365kt
489kt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume Acetone Import Volume
Phenol Import Reliance Acetone Import Reliance
MTYear
Source ICIS China
wwwiciscom
Asian PhenolAcetone capacity May 2014
Unit metric tonnesyear Phenol Acetone Note
Asia excluding China India 343 million 202 million
China 165 million 1 million
Subtotal (May 2014) 508 million 302 million
Less plant closure (250kt) (90kt) Mitsui Chemicals Sept 2014
2014 Expansion 1 million 600kt
Total by end 2014 583 million 353 million
2015 Expansion 550kt 335kt
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone capacity expansion 2014-2017
Company Location Country Phenol
(ktyear) Acetone (ktyear)
Start-up
Sinopec Yanshan Beijing China (+) 125 (+) 75 Q3 2014
Kingboard Huizhou China (+) 75 (+) 45 Q3 2014
Sinopec Mitsui (SSMC) Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q3 2014
FCFC Ningbo Zhejiang China 300 180 Early Q4 2014
Cepsa Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South Korea 300 180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut Thailand 250 155 Q4 2015
Ineos Nanjing Jiangsu China 400 250 End 2016
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong China 220 130 20162017
PTT Map Ta Phut Thailand (+) 50 (+30) Q2 2017
222 million 135 million
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenol import dependency may slump further
594kt
365kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear China imported 365kt
of phenol in 2013 down by 39 from
2012
Sources ICIS China China Customs
Chinarsquos 2014 phenol imports may decline by 45 from 2013 (ICIS China)
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos slowing phenol apparent demand growth
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume
Phenol Output
Phenol Apparent Demand
MTYear
165m 173m
Chinarsquos phenol apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
Sou
rces ICIS C
hin
a Ch
ina C
usto
ms
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
China High phenolacetone import dependency until 2010
365kt
489kt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume Acetone Import Volume
Phenol Import Reliance Acetone Import Reliance
MTYear
Source ICIS China
wwwiciscom
Asian PhenolAcetone capacity May 2014
Unit metric tonnesyear Phenol Acetone Note
Asia excluding China India 343 million 202 million
China 165 million 1 million
Subtotal (May 2014) 508 million 302 million
Less plant closure (250kt) (90kt) Mitsui Chemicals Sept 2014
2014 Expansion 1 million 600kt
Total by end 2014 583 million 353 million
2015 Expansion 550kt 335kt
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone capacity expansion 2014-2017
Company Location Country Phenol
(ktyear) Acetone (ktyear)
Start-up
Sinopec Yanshan Beijing China (+) 125 (+) 75 Q3 2014
Kingboard Huizhou China (+) 75 (+) 45 Q3 2014
Sinopec Mitsui (SSMC) Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q3 2014
FCFC Ningbo Zhejiang China 300 180 Early Q4 2014
Cepsa Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South Korea 300 180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut Thailand 250 155 Q4 2015
Ineos Nanjing Jiangsu China 400 250 End 2016
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong China 220 130 20162017
PTT Map Ta Phut Thailand (+) 50 (+30) Q2 2017
222 million 135 million
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenol import dependency may slump further
594kt
365kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear China imported 365kt
of phenol in 2013 down by 39 from
2012
Sources ICIS China China Customs
Chinarsquos 2014 phenol imports may decline by 45 from 2013 (ICIS China)
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos slowing phenol apparent demand growth
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume
Phenol Output
Phenol Apparent Demand
MTYear
165m 173m
Chinarsquos phenol apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
Sou
rces ICIS C
hin
a Ch
ina C
usto
ms
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Asian PhenolAcetone capacity May 2014
Unit metric tonnesyear Phenol Acetone Note
Asia excluding China India 343 million 202 million
China 165 million 1 million
Subtotal (May 2014) 508 million 302 million
Less plant closure (250kt) (90kt) Mitsui Chemicals Sept 2014
2014 Expansion 1 million 600kt
Total by end 2014 583 million 353 million
2015 Expansion 550kt 335kt
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone capacity expansion 2014-2017
Company Location Country Phenol
(ktyear) Acetone (ktyear)
Start-up
Sinopec Yanshan Beijing China (+) 125 (+) 75 Q3 2014
Kingboard Huizhou China (+) 75 (+) 45 Q3 2014
Sinopec Mitsui (SSMC) Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q3 2014
FCFC Ningbo Zhejiang China 300 180 Early Q4 2014
Cepsa Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South Korea 300 180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut Thailand 250 155 Q4 2015
Ineos Nanjing Jiangsu China 400 250 End 2016
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong China 220 130 20162017
PTT Map Ta Phut Thailand (+) 50 (+30) Q2 2017
222 million 135 million
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenol import dependency may slump further
594kt
365kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear China imported 365kt
of phenol in 2013 down by 39 from
2012
Sources ICIS China China Customs
Chinarsquos 2014 phenol imports may decline by 45 from 2013 (ICIS China)
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos slowing phenol apparent demand growth
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume
Phenol Output
Phenol Apparent Demand
MTYear
165m 173m
Chinarsquos phenol apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
Sou
rces ICIS C
hin
a Ch
ina C
usto
ms
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone capacity expansion 2014-2017
Company Location Country Phenol
(ktyear) Acetone (ktyear)
Start-up
Sinopec Yanshan Beijing China (+) 125 (+) 75 Q3 2014
Kingboard Huizhou China (+) 75 (+) 45 Q3 2014
Sinopec Mitsui (SSMC) Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q3 2014
FCFC Ningbo Zhejiang China 300 180 Early Q4 2014
Cepsa Caojing Shanghai China 250 150 Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South Korea 300 180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol II Map Ta Phut Thailand 250 155 Q4 2015
Ineos Nanjing Jiangsu China 400 250 End 2016
CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou Guangdong China 220 130 20162017
PTT Map Ta Phut Thailand (+) 50 (+30) Q2 2017
222 million 135 million
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenol import dependency may slump further
594kt
365kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear China imported 365kt
of phenol in 2013 down by 39 from
2012
Sources ICIS China China Customs
Chinarsquos 2014 phenol imports may decline by 45 from 2013 (ICIS China)
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos slowing phenol apparent demand growth
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume
Phenol Output
Phenol Apparent Demand
MTYear
165m 173m
Chinarsquos phenol apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
Sou
rces ICIS C
hin
a Ch
ina C
usto
ms
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenol import dependency may slump further
594kt
365kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear China imported 365kt
of phenol in 2013 down by 39 from
2012
Sources ICIS China China Customs
Chinarsquos 2014 phenol imports may decline by 45 from 2013 (ICIS China)
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos slowing phenol apparent demand growth
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume
Phenol Output
Phenol Apparent Demand
MTYear
165m 173m
Chinarsquos phenol apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
Sou
rces ICIS C
hin
a Ch
ina C
usto
ms
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos slowing phenol apparent demand growth
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol Import Volume
Phenol Output
Phenol Apparent Demand
MTYear
165m 173m
Chinarsquos phenol apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
Sou
rces ICIS C
hin
a Ch
ina C
usto
ms
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone import dependency may fall further
690kt
489kt
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10 ktYear
China imported 489kt acetone in
2013 down by 29 from 2012
Chinarsquos 2014 acetone imports may fall by 14 from 2013 (ICIS China)
Sources ICIS China China Customs
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth also slowing
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone Import Volume
Acetone output
Acetone Apparent Demand
MTYear
134m 14m
Source ICIS China
Chinarsquos acetone apparent demand growth may slow to 1-15 in 2014
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
PhenolAcetone margins squeezed on slowing demand prompting
producers to reduce plant op rates
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Margin Benzene FOB Korea Propylene CFR NE Asia Phenol CFR China Acetone CFR China
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
Margin
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Chinarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates fall
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KTyear
Capacity Output
Average plant op rate
Source ICIS China
2013 ave op rate
83
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Phenol margins largely negative since 2011
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Phe Margin
Benzene FOB Korea
Phenol CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
But lower plant op rates boost acetone margins
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
$1600
$1800
Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013
Acetone Margin
Propylene CFR NEAsia
Acetone CFR China
Margin
Unit USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Phenol import parity largely negative since 2011 60-70 of phenolacetone producers in China base their prices on Sinopec pricing
USDtonne
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Phenol CFR CMP Phenol import parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Acetone import parity increasingly volatile
USDtonne
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1000
$1200
$1400
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014
Difference ICIS Acetone CFR CMP Acetone Import Parity
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
BPA capacity expansion 2014-2015 By end 2014 725ktyear of new BPA capacity to consume 630ktyear of phenol and 210ktyear of acetone
Capacity
(ktyear)
Nanya Plastics Ningbo Zhejiang 150 End 2014
Changchun Plastic Jiangsu 135 End 2014
Shandong Lihuayi Shandong 120 2014
Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin 200 2014
Kingboard Yangzhou Jiangsu 120 2014
Subtotal (end 2014) 725
Sinopec-Mitsui (SSMC) Shanghai 150 2015
Bayer Shanghai Shanghai 200 2015
108 m
Company Location Start-up
Total (2014-2015)
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
BPA margins under pressure
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
USDTONNE USDTONNE
BPA Margin Benzene FOB Korea Phenol CFR China Bisphenol A CFR China
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
India Phenol and acetone stats
bull India needs to import around 80 of the phenol amp acetone it consumes
bull No domestic capacity expansion planned in the immediate future
bull Indian local phenol prices tend to follow international (China) trends
bull Domestic benchmark price ex-tank Kandla port (more than 90 of
phenol imports are discharged at Kandla west coast of India)
bull Usually prices are based on CIF + Basic Customs Duty + Costs = Import
Parity Basis
Producers Location Phenol Capacity
(ktyear) Acetone Capacity
(Ktyear)
Hindustan Organic Chemicals
Kochi (Southwest India) 42 25
SI Group India Ltd Navi Mumbai (West
India) 37 21
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
India phenol prices tend to follow China prices
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
India vs China
ICIS CFR India
ICIS Phenol CFR CMP
USDtonne
Source ICIS Pricing
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
India Rising phenol import volume
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Phenol import volume (MT)
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos phenol import volume rose by 18-19 year on year So
urce M
inistry o
f Co
mm
erce
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
India Rising acetone import volume
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Acetone import volume (MT)
Sou
rce Min
istry of C
om
merce
Between 2011 and 2013 Indiarsquos acetone import volume rose by about 10 year on year
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
India ADDs and duties determine product flow In 2012 the US was the top supplier of phenol to India accounting for 57 of imports
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2012 Source the Ministry of Commerce
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Brazil
Finland
S Africa 8
Thailand56
United States 57
Taiwan 20
South Korea 6
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
In 2013 Taiwan was the top supplier of phenol to India overtaking the US and accounting
for 29 of imports
India ADDs and duties determine product flow
United States
Taiwan
South Africa
South Korea
Thailand
Singapore
NetherlandsTaiwan 29
United States 23
Thailand 10
Singapore 6
South Africa 9
Top 7 phenol suppliers to India by country in 2013 Source the Ministry of Commerce
South Korea
17
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos phenol imports may catch up with China in 2014
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Indiarsquos acetone imports outpaced by China
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est)
India China
Unit MT
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Phenol to remain in oversupply in the next three years
as phenol capacity expansion outpaces downstream
capacity increase
bull Asian phenol makersrsquo margins to stay squeezed
bull Asiarsquos phenolacetone plant op rates to stay low on poor
economics older plants may be idled
bull Phenol exports from China may increase
bull Exporters to target growing markets such as India
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global chemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt