phd vassilis daioglou4

The role of biomass in

climate change mitigation

Assessing the long-term dynamics of bioenergy and

biochemicals in the land and energy systems

Vassilis DaioglouMay 26th 2016

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Introduction

Research questions

Method

Thesis outline

Sythesis and outcomes

Reccomendations

Contents

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Energy and climate change Anthropogenic climate change is primarily driven by emissions from the energy

and land-use systems

Introduction

Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation

(IPCC

, 201

4)

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Climate change mitigation Current trends: global mean temperatures increase by at least 3°C

by 2100 Paris agreement adopted at the 2015 United Nations Climate

Change Conference aims to limit...

“...global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to persue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”

Strategies Changing behaviours and attitudes

– Consumption, diets– Preservation of ecosystem services

Decarbonise the energy system– Increase efficiency– Solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear, etc.

Introduction


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Introduction


(Chum et al., 2011)

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Introduction


(Chum et al., 2011)

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Introduction


(Chum et al., 2011)

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1. What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially explicit manner?

2. What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a dynamic energy system model?

3. What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?

4. What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-system in an integrated manner?

Research Questions


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The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) Describes interactions within and between the human and earth systems

– Agricultural economy, energy supply & demand– Land cover and land use, emissions, atmospheric composition and climate

Model Adaptations Supply - Residues Demand - Non-energy (chemicals)

Scenario Analysis Storylines which allow for a broad set of potential long term and global outcomes Explore uncertainties and highlight the requirements, ranges, sensitivities, conflicts

and synergies of biomass strategies

Method


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Chapter 1: Introduction, problem definition, research questions and outline fo the IMAGE model

Chapter 2: Cost-supply curves of agricultural and forestry residues

Chapter 3: Emission-supply curves of advanced biofuels

Chapter 4: Energy demand and emissions of the non-energy (chemicals) sector

Chapter 5: Competing uses of biomass and implications for CO2 mitigation potential

Chapter 6: Comparison of two IAM model concerning biomass supply, demand and climate change mitigation strategies

Chapter 7: Synthesis of insights from previous chapters in order to answer the research questions

Thesis outlineSu

pply

Dem

and

Inte

grat

ion


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Synthesis - outline

Investigate role of biomass in baseline and mitigation scenarios

(O’N

eill

et a

l., 2

014)

Scenarios• SSP1: Optimistic world (low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)• SSP2: Middle of the road• SSP3: Pessimistic world (high challenges to mitigation and adaptation)


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Theoretical Potential:Driven by increased demand of agriculture & forestry products

Ecological Potential:Follows similar trend, but less pronounced

Available Potential:Opposite trend, very small differences

Explanation: competing uses grow significantly from SSP1 to SSP3. Different drivers across scenarios cancel eachother out.

RQ1: Supply Residues

What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially explicit manner?

SSP1SSP2SSP3


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SSP1: Lots of natural lands are protected High abandonement of productive lands


RQ1: Supply Energy crops


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SSP3: Expansion of land for foodLow protection of natural lands


RQ1: Supply Energy crops


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Residue supply-curves consistent

Availability of high quality lands in SSP1 leads to extremely high and low cost availability of biomass

RQ1: Supply Curves


2100

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Total global gross non-energy demandNo-biomass With Biomass

RQ2: Demand Chemicals

What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a dynamic energy system model?

Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood and modelled in long-term models


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Total global gross non-energy demandNo-biomass With Biomass

RQ2: Demand Chemicals


Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood and modelled in long-term models


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RQ2: Demand System


SSP2

Base Mitig


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RQ2: Demand System


Baseline Scenarios- Liquid bioenergy very important, especially in SSP1 - Also some solids and chemicals, especially in SSP3

Mitigation Scenarios- Increased (but not exclusive) use of BECCS. H2 in SSP1 → increased technological development

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3Base Mitig Base Mitig Base Mitig


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RQ3: Emissions Supply Curves

What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass eployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?

EF85 (kgCO2-eq/GJSec)

Increasing supply of biofuels leads to higher emission factors and GHG payback periods.

Lowest GHG effect from abandoned agricultural lands and temperate regions


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RQ3: Emissions Supply Curves

What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass eployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?

EF85 (kgCO2-eq/GJSec)

Increasing supply of biofuels leads to higher emission factors and GHG payback periods.

Lowest GHG effect from abandoned agricultural lands and temperate regions


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RQ3: Emissions Energy System

What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?

Biomass competes everywhere

Biomass limitedto specific sectors


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Total emission reduction for each end-use sector: At taxes > 200$/tC, limiting bioenergy to power production is more effective than

having it compete freely

RQ3: Emissions Energy System


Biomass competes everywhere

Biomass limitedto specific sectors


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RQ3: Emissions Integrated


SSP2

Base Mitig


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RQ3: Emissions Integrated


SSP1 SSP2 SSP3Base Mitig Base Mitig Base Mitig

Availability of high quality lands for biomass and protection of carbon stocks in SSP1 leads to high biomass deploymend and land based mitigation!

In SSP2, about 10% of mitigation is due to biomass use, largest contribution from BECCS - Higher in SSP1 (lower LUC, better bioenergy technologies)- Lower in SSP3


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RQ4: The role of biomass Strategies

What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-systems in an integrated manner?

Biomass has an important role- Residues: low cost source, similar across scenarios- Energy crops (lignocellulosic), important at higher demand levels

Conditions for its effective use- Land use scenarios and Protection of carbon stocks

High biomass production with mitigation vs.

Low biomass production in high LUC - Multiple energy and non-energy uses

- Highest mitigation: transport and power- Advanced technologies a must: 2nd gen. Biofuels, BECCS- Competing uses: Improve efficiency and alternate technologies


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RQ4: The role of biomass Strategies

What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-systems in an integrated manner?

- Supply Regions:- Residues:

- Asia - OECD - ...

- Energy crops: - Latin America - OECD - Asia - Africa - ...

Mitigation scenarios SSP1 2.6 SSP2 2.6 SSP3 3.4

2100

Primary Production (EJPrim/yr)Residues 74 75 76Energy Crops 192 144 119Total 266 220 197 Land Use(MHa) 451 359 302 Secondary Bioenergy (EJSec/yr)w/o CCS 94 90 80w CCS 61 33 29 % Total Final Consumption 35% 25% 21%


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Land & feedstock strategies• MESSAGE-GLOBIOM: Economic equilibrium, perfect foresight

– Competition between Agriculture – Forestry – Biomass– Biomass from energy crops and forestry

• IMAGE: Biophysical– Food-first, biomass grown on abandoned and unprotected natural lands– Energy crops and residues

Energy strategies• Importance of 2nd generation biofuels• BECCS important in both models• Timing differences due to foresight and different mitigation options

RQ4: The role of biomass Comparison


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Recomendations

Research• Further investigate model uncertainty• IAM representation of advanced agricultural and conversion systems• Better understand tradeoffs

– Land based mitigation vs. Biomass production; ecological and competing uses; inputs for increased crop yields; further impacts

• Feasibility of IAM projections

Policy• Develop markets for residues and 2nd generation feedstocks • Intensification of agriculture and protection of carbon stocks (global!)• Further develop and roll-out 2nd gen. biofuels and BECCS technologies• Long-term policies, short sighted policies may be counter-productive• Increased trade: international standards, markets, certification schemes,

etc.


[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Supplementary Slides: Chapter 1

Adap

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from

Ste

hfes

t et a

l. (2

014)


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Industry

Transport

Buildings

Chemicals

CoalOilNatural gasBioenergy

ElectricityHeatH2

CoalOilNatural gasBiomassNuclearSolarWindHydropower

Adapted from Bowman et al. 2006



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Context• By-products from agriculture and forestry• Thought to be cheap, plentiful and have very low direct & indirect land use change• Large uncertainty of availability and assessments do not capture important dynamics

– Simple methodologies → Poor understanding of drivers, constraints– Limited exploration of sensitivities, costs, regional differences

Aim & Method• Develop and apply a method to assess the potential, costs, drivers and constraints of

residues• Availability and costs related to production and intensity of agriculture and forestry in

IMAGE• Different potential types: Theoretical → Ecological → Available• Different scenarios: Medium - Optimistic - Pessimistic


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2100



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Theoretical Potential (GJ/km2)

Ecological Potential (GJ/km2)

Supply Costs ($/GJPrim)



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Context• Studies have evaluated the emissions of biomass/biofuel production

– Emission Factors (EF) or GHG Payback Period (PBP)– Sutdies usually site and feedstock specific

• Little understanding on:– How EF/PBPs vary across locations– Importance of counterfactual land uses (i.e. Development of natural vegetation)– Biomass/biofuel supply at specific EF/PBP levels– The effect of policies adopting EF/PBPs as sustainability criteria on supply potential

Aim & Method• Determine spatially specific EFs/PBP for different biofuels• Use consistent crop growth and carbon cycle models• Draw emission-supply curves: Biofuel availability at different EF/PBP• Investigate importance of different accounting periods (20yr vs. 85 yr)


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Context• Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood

and modelled in long-term models• Future potential of biomass is this sector and its potential for emission mitigation is

unclear– Replacing fossil fuels as feedstocks– Recycling and cascading uses

Aim & Method• Assess non-energy sector and develop a long-term demand model• Determine future demand of fossil fuels and biomass for this sector• Determine future emissions and how biomass can contribute to their mitigation• Evaluate different post-consumer waste strategies such as recycling and incineration with

power production



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Total global gross gross non-energy demandNo-biomass With Biomass

Carbon flows for NoBio and Bio Cases Implications for cascadingCarbon content (CC) accumulated in chemicals and plastics is emitted if incinerated (for power production)

Unless CC is much lower than fossil fuels and incineration plants have high efficiency, cascading may have limited emission reductions



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Context• Biomass can displace fossil fuels in a number of end-uses

– Buildings, Industry, Transport, Chemcials, Converted to electricity, etc.

• Mitigation potential of biomass depends on a number of elements:– Potential and competitivness of biomass per sector– What (fossil) fuel is displaced and potential leakage– Possibility of advanced technologies– Effect of different competing uses

Aim & Method• Use the TIMER (dynamic energy-system model) to investigate different biomass

uses– Conduct experiments with different biomass use constraints– Compare emission reduction potential of each experiment (with respect to a no-biomass

counterfactual)



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170EJ/yr22EJ/yr

Secondary energy demand per sector Emissions per sector

Cumulative emission reductions (due to biomass use) per sector

GtCO2 reduction GtCO2 reduction



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Context• Different IAMs represent the energy and land systems differently• Yet there is broad agreement on the importance of biomass in order to meet the

2°C goal• The reasons behind this “agreement” and the individual strategies each model

adopts are unclear

Aim & Method• Compare the representation of the land and energy systems in two IAMs

– MESSAGE-GLOBIOM– IMAGE

• Compare (bio)energy demand in harmonised baseline and mitigation scenarios– How much biomass is used?– Where is it directed– What are the overall emission mitigation strategies



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Base

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phd vassilis daioglou4

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