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Charteris Treasury P f li M Ld P ortf olio Managers L td The DMS Charteris Gold & Precious Metals Fund Fund Presentation October 2020 For Professional investors only. Not for consumer use

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  • Charteris Treasury P f li M L dPortfolio Managers Ltd

    The DMS Charteris Gold & Precious Metals Fund

    Fund Presentation

    October 2020

    For Professional investors only. Not for consumer use

  • • Background 3

    • Objective(s)

    • Commodity Performance

    4

    5y

    • Irving Fisher

    5

    7

    • Merits of holding Bullion vs. Equities

    R l ti V l Ch t

    12

    16• Relative Value Charts

    • Silver Demand

    16

    20

    • Cycle Analysis 23

    For professional intermediaries only 2

  • Ian Williams Chartered FCSI became a Chartered Wealth Manager in 2013, Lead manager of the DMS Charteris Gold & Precious Metals Fund. Correctly predicted $2 000 Gold price in July 2008 Daily Telegraph feature

    ManagerCorrectly predicted $2,000 Gold price in July 2008 Daily Telegraph feature. Citywire plus rating in 2020, Citywire A Rating in 2009, 2010, 2011 & awarded Alpha Manager in 2011 for previously managed UK Gilt fund

    [email protected]

    2016 Top UK mutual Fund across all sectors calendar year - up 133.95% *Source FE 2019 Top UK mutual Fund across all sectors calendar year - up 51.96% *Source FT 2020 YTD (31 Dec 19 1 Sep 20) up 48 37 % *S FE

    Performance

    2020 YTD (31 Dec 19 – 1 Sep 20) - up 48.37 % *Source FE

    UK UCITS Structure

    ACD – DMS Investment Management. DMS is the worldwide leader in Fund governance with t d i f $350b

    Framework

    assets under service of $350bn

    Depositary & Custodian – Credit Agricole (AAA). CACEIS Bank, UK Branch

    3

  • – The fund mainly invests in gold and silver mining companies with a market 

    Fund objectiveThe Fund seeks to provide capital growth through investment in a diversified portfolio of shares in companies whose core business is involved in the mining, refining, financing, production and marketing of gold and or precious metals.

    g pcapitalisation of more than $500m.

    – The fund does not buy the underlying physical precious metals.

    – The fund is long only. It does & will not short or hedge bullion in any way.

    – The fund can hold up to 10% in other funds, such as Gold and Silver ETFs 

    Concentrated portfolioValuation‐based approach

    Activelymanaged

    ,(exchange‐traded funds) and ETCs (exchange‐traded certificates) at manager’s discretion.

    – The fund does not invest directly in South d i il d idomiciled companies.

    – The fund does not invest in general miners such as zinc, copper and iron ore, for instance.

    Conviction led Liquid portfolioLong term

    4

  • Our processHow do we build portfolios?

    Macro overlayCentral bank policy, market overview 

    • Top‐down macroeconomic view drives our expectations for the underlying precious metals prices. 

    • Our focused, active management approach dictates bottom‐up sector and stock selection decisions based on identifying businesses that are

    & technical analysis

    Bear market strategyBull market strategydecisions based on identifying businesses that are best placed to benefit from the bullish or bearish global macro trends we feel will influence the asset class.

    gyLow or no silver bullion and no silver miner exposure

    gyGold & silver miners up to near 100% of the portfolio

    Bull market strategy

    1. Overweight silver relative to gold

    2. Overweight mid‐caps relative to large‐caps

    3 Overweight gold/silver mining stocks relative to

    Asset classCash, equities, gold, silver, other precious metals

    Asset classCash, equities, gold, silver, other precious metals

    3. Overweight gold/silver mining stocks relative to physical gold/silver

    4. Approx. 2% cash exposureStock universeList of stocks that fit the sector themes and asset classes

    Stock universeList of stocks that fit the sector themes and asset classes

    Bear market strategy

    1. Underweight silver relative to gold (no silver miners or silver metal/bullion)

    2. Overweight streaming/royalty companies and larger cap index constituents

    Stock screeningThorough stock selection process

    cap index constituents

    3. Maximum 10% cash exposure

    Portfolio20‐50 stocks that make up the 

    For professional intermediaries only 5

    portfolio (typically 25‐40)

  • L t P i $1 845 00

    Gold priceSource: Charteris, Bloomberg (as at June 2020)

    Last Price $1,845.001,950

    Gold very close to an all time high

    1,500an all‐time high priced in USD Dollars

    1,050

    Dollars

    600

    150

    1999

    2000

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    2020

    6

  • Precious metals prices performance in an inflationary backdrop

    Gold price in tandem with the Fed’s balance sheetSource: Charteris, Bloomberg (as at Jan 2020)

    – History suggests that investors, including other central banks buy gold when they see how much the Feds balance sheet is 

    d

    800

    900

    1000

    expanding. 

    – Covid‐19 has resulted in the biggest global fiscal and monetary policy stimulus seen since WW2.

    – Under QE 1, 2, and 3 the Fed’s balance sheet  500

    600

    700

    Q , ,rose by $4trn in the six years after Financial Crisis. It has risen a further £2trn in March/April and is on course to rise at least another $2trn – a rise of 100%.

    – The Bank of Russia has been ahead of the 200

    300

    400

    The Bank of Russia has been ahead of the pack in switching its US Treasury bonds into gold, taking over a year to undertake the switch due to the size. The Bank still might have a bit more to do. We expect a lot of other central banks to follow suit

    0

    100

    200

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020other central banks to follow suit.

    Gold Spot ($/Oz) US Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks Total Assets

    7

  • M V = P TM is for money M0, M1, M2, M3, M4?

    V is for Velocity The amount money changes hands

    P is for Price Average Price Level

    T i f T t l O t t V l f t ti f G d & S i

    8

    T is for Total Output Volume of transactions for Goods & Services

  • Real M2 Money StockSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (as at June 2020)

    Monetary base; TotalSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (as at June 2020)

    6,950

    7,400

    7,850

    5,100,000

    5,600

    6,050

    6,500

    4,100,000

    4,250

    4,700

    5,1503,100,000

    2,900

    3,350

    3,800

    1,100,000

    2,100,000

    2,000

    2,450

    2000

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2018

    2019

    2020

    100,000

    2000

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2018

    2019

    2020

    9Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

  • Velocity of M2 Money StockSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (as at Jan 2020)

    Labour Force participation rateSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (as at Jan 2020)

    3

    6868

    2

    63

    58

    1

    1959

    1962

    1965

    1968

    1971

    1974

    1977

    1980

    1983

    1986

    1989

    1992

    1995

    1998

    2001

    2004

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    2013

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    2019 53

    1948

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    2017

    2020

    10

  • Last Price $23.45

    Silver priceSource: Charteris, Bloomberg (as at June 2020)

    Last Price $23.45

    52

    57

    Silver spot price in USD Dollars

    37

    42

    47USD Dollars

    It h l d G ld

    22

    27

    32 It has lagged Gold

    7

    12

    17

    2

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

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    2011

    2011

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    2014

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    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    11

  • Gold vs. Silver (both in USD) since 2000   (% rebased – M0)Source: Charteris, Bloomberg (as at June 2020)

    1000

    800

    900

    1000

    Silver spot price is much more volatile

    600

    700

    much more volatile than Gold spot price

    400

    500

    100

    200

    300

    01999 2004 2009 2014 2019

    XAU Curncy XAG Curncy

    12

  • P iti• Listed securities traditionally outperform Bullion in a Bull Market due to the operational gearing (i.e. Fixed or 

    semi‐fixed costs vs. rising revenue stream)

    Positives

    • Listed securities have the ability to pay dividends to investors

    • Listed equities have capability to make fresh discoveries due to their exploration activities (Cap‐Ex)

    • Listed equities can be subject to take over activity from larger miners E g Barrick taking Randgold• Listed equities can be subject to take‐over activity from larger miners. E.g. Barrick taking Randgold

    • Good Managements can enhance shareholder value

    Negatives• Gold & Silver Mines eventually run out of Gold/SilverGold & Silver Mines eventually run out of Gold/Silver

    • Gold & Silver Mines can suffer from Flood, Earthquakes, Politics, theft etc

    13

    • Bad management can waste shareholder value

  • Gold vs. Silver vs. HUI Index (all in USD) since 2000Source: Charteris, Bloomberg (as at June 2020)

    800

    900

    1000

    600

    700

    400

    500

    100

    200

    300

    0

    100

    1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

    XAU Curncy XAG Curncy HUI Index

    14

  • (as at 30 Jun 20)

    Gold in Canadian Dollar C$ Gold in Euro €

    2,125

    2,475

    Gold in Canadian Dollar C$Source: Charteris, Bloomberg

    1,500

    1,750

    Source: Charteris, Bloomberg

    1,075

    1,425

    1,775

    750

    1,000

    1,250

    All time high in CAD All time high in EUR375

    725

    2000

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2012

    2013

    2014

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    2018

    2019

    2020

    250

    500

    2000

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

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    2007

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2011

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    2012

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    2015

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    2018

    2018

    2019

    2020

    1,550

    Gold in Pound Sterling £Source: Charteris, Bloomberg

    195 150210,150

    Gold in Japanese Yen Source: Charteris, Bloomberg

    950

    1,150

    1,350

    105,150120,150135,150150,150165,150180,150195,150

    All time high in GBP150

    350

    550

    750

    15015,15030,15045,15060,15075,15090,150

    All time high in JPY

    15

    150

    2000

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2018

    2019

    2020

    150

    2000

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2012

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    2014

    2015

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2018

    2019

    2020

  • Gold (CMX) 20 year seasonal (1989-2019)Source: Equityclock

    Silver (CMX) 20 year seasonal (1989-2019)Source: Equityclock

    16

  • 17

  • (as at 30 Jun 20)

    28

    30 Classic End of mega‐cycle

    selling climax low

    Gold price / Gold Shares Ratio 2000 - PresentSource: Charteris, Bloomberg

    Gold equities Cheap

    24

    26

    28 selling climax low p

    18

    20

    22

    12

    14

    16

    6

    8

    10

    2

    4

    1983

    1984

    1985

    1986

    1987

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    1989

    1990

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    Gold equities expensive

    18

  • (as at 30 Jun 20)

    Gold price / Silver Price Ratio 1949 - Present

    Silver Cheap

    130

    140

    Source: Charteris, Bloomberg

    p

    100

    110

    120

    80

    90

    50

    60

    70

    30

    40

    50

    Silver Expensive

    10

    20

    1950

    1952

    1954

    1956

    1958

    1960

    1962

    1964

    1966

    1968

    1970

    1972

    1974

    1976

    1978

    1980

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    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    19

  • Commodities E i

    GSCI / S&P 500 Ratio 1970 - PresentExpensive

    10

    Source: Charteris, Bloomberg

    5

    Commodities Cheap

    0

    1970

    1972

    1974

    1976

    1978

    1980

    1982

    1984

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    1996

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    2014

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    2018

    2020

    Silver Expensive0.05

    Silver / S&P 500 Ratio 1989 - PresentSource: Charteris, Bloomberg

    0.02

    0.03

    0.04

    SilverCh

    0.00

    0.01

    990

    992

    994

    996

    998

    000

    002

    004

    006

    008

    010

    012

    014

    016

    018

    020

    20

    Cheap19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

  • Total annual Global Silver supply in decline Silver scrap at 20yr lows

    80090010001100

    Total annual Global Silver supply in declineSource: Charteris, Silver Institute

    Silver scrap at 20yr lowsSource: Charteris, Silver Institute

    250

    300

    350

    200300400500600700800

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    0100200

    1950

    1960

    1970

    1980

    1982

    1984

    1986

    1988

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    0

    50

    1977

    1979

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

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    1995

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    1999

    2001

    2003

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    1000

    Silver Fabrication demand charging higherSource: Charteris, Silver Institute

    1000

    Silver industrial demand near record highsSource: Charteris, Silver Institute

    500600700800900

    400500600700800900

    0100200300400

    7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9

    0100200300400

    60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17

    21

    1977

    1979

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

    1991

    1993

    1995

    1997

    1999

    2001

    2003

    2005

    2007

    2009

    2011

    2013

    2015

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    2019 196

    196

    196

    196

    197

    197

    197

    198

    198

    198

    199

    199

    199

    199

    200

    200

    200

    201

    201

    201

  • {as at 30 Sept 20)

    Market capitalisation

    large‐cap ($2bn – $200bn)35.17%

    Mid cap ($300m ‐ $2bn)

    Stock Country Weight

    Wheaton Precious Canada 4.92%Canada79%

    Share domicile holding

    Market capitalisation

    Mid cap ($300m  $2bn)49.4%

    Small cap ($0m ‐ $300m)12.6%

    Agnico Eagle Canada 4.70%

    MAG Silver Canada 4.50%

    K92 Mining Canada 4 34%

    UK12.25%

    USA3 79% Cash

    2.83%

    K92 Mining Canada 4.34%

    Polymetal UK 4.03%

    Teranga Gold Canada 3.98%

    3.79%

    Australia2.09%

    CashSilvercorp Canada 3.93%

    Royal Gold USA 3.79%

    First Majestic Canada 3.76%

    2.83%

    Metal breakdown

    Gold

    Highland Gold UK 3.70%

    Total of top 10 41.86%

    56.85%

    Silver43.15%

    PalladiumPalladium0.00%

    Platinum0.00%

    22

  • • Correlation: gold is inversely correlated to other asset classes (especially bonds) which in the current environment makes it an appropriate option for model portfolios.

    h ld h d h lf f h• Momentum: the strong move up in prices we could see in the second half of 2020 may happen   sooner and perhaps most aggressively in the price of silver (43% of the fund), which is at near all‐time lows against gold.

    • Valuations: mining shares are still cheap relative to gold itself, so investors are not paying excessive   valuations to increase their exposure to buy the fund for the expected returns ahead. 

    • Flows: many investors are underweight precious metals as an asset class, and investor sentiment can turn quickly,

    • Active management: the switch from outperforming giant blue chips to mid‐caps has yet to take place and we have positioned the portfolio with that potential outcome in mind.

    • Policy: the Central Bank of Russia has been ahead of the pack in switching its US Treasury bonds into• Policy: the Central Bank of Russia has been ahead of the pack in switching its US Treasury bonds into gold, taking over a year to undertake the switch due to the size – and it still might have a bit more to do. Other central banks could follow suit.

    • Macro backdrop: should Covid‐19‐driven QE play out, it could be bullish for all real asset inflation hedges including gold and other precious metals.

    • Dividends: one of the few sectors that may see dividends increase this year as revenue is going up and costs (oil is 30% of an average miner’s cost, for instance) are going down. The current 1.5% yield on the fund covers the annual management charge.

    • Experience: fund manager and team are experienced in managing the fund through different economic cycles.y

    • Proven outperformance: best‐performing fund out of more than 2,500 UK‐based funds in 2016 and 2019, according to FE Analytics, the fund data provider.

    For professional intermediaries only 23

  • Bloomberg Ticker Codes WCHGEIA LN Equity          (Inst Acc Class) Thomson Reuters Codes LP68418916                              (Inst Acc Class)g q y ( )WCHGEII Equity                 (Inst Inc Class)WGPMERA LN Equity (A Inc Class)WGPMERI LN Equity         (A Acc Class)WCHGERA LN Equity         (B Acc Class)WCHGERI LN Equity (B Inc Class)

    ( )LP68418917                              (Inst Inc Class)LP68418912                              (A Acc Class)LP68418913                              (A Inc Class)LP68418914                              (B Acc Class)LP68418915 (B Inc Class)WCHGERI LN Equity          (B Inc Class) LP68418915                              (B Inc Class)

    AMC 1% (Institutional/Clean Classes) OCF 1 52% (I Classes) (as at 29 Feb 20)AMC 1% (Institutional/Clean Classes)1.25% (A Classes)1.75% (B Classes)

    OCF 1.52% (I Classes)                           (as at 29 Feb 20)1.79% (A Classes)                         (as at 29 Feb 20)2.28% (B Classes)                         (as at 29 Feb 20) 

    ISIN Identifiers GB00BYQ2JY43                 (Inst Acc Class)GB00BYQ2JZ59                 (Inst Inc Class)GB00BYQ2JS82                 (A Acc Class)GB00BYQ2JT99                 (A Inc Class)GB00BYQ2JW29 (B Acc Class)

    MEXID HTMTE (Inst Acc Class) Citicode / FE Code ICC2 (Inst Acc Class)

    GB00BYQ2JW29               (B Acc Class)GB00BYQ2JX36)               (B Inc Class)

    MEXID HTMTE          (Inst Acc Class)HTMTF          (Inst Inc Class)HTMTA          (A Acc Class)HTMTB          (A Inc Class)HTMTC          (B Acc Class)

    Citicode / FE Code ICC2               (Inst Acc Class)ICC3               (Inst Inc Class)I3RH               (A Acc Class)I3RI                 (A Inc Class)ICC0                (B Acc Class)

    24

    HTMTD          (B Inc Class) ICC1                (B Inc Class)

  • Past performance should not be used as a guide to future performance All performance information is based on the Institutional Accumulation share classPast performance should not be used as a guide to future performance. All performance information is based on the Institutional Accumulation share class unless otherwise stated.

    The al e of this in estment and the income from it can go do n as ell as p it ma be affected b e change rate ariations and o ma not get back theThe value of this investment and the income from it can go down as well as up, it may be affected by exchange rate variations and you may not get back the amount that you invested.

    Th tl k d i thi t ti t th i f th I t t M t th ti f ti d h ld t b i t t dThe outlook expressed in this presentation represents the views of the Investment Manager at the time of preparation and should not be interpreted as investment advice.

    h l d l d h h h d d b h h l h h b fThe asset splits detailed within this presentation are correct as at the reporting period and are subject to change, whilst operating within the objectives of the Fund.

    This presentation should be viewed in conjunction with the Fund’s Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which will exclusively form the basis of any application and the Fund’s prospectus. A comprehensive list of risk factors is detailed in the KIID and the Principal Prospectus and an investment should not be contemplated until the risk are fully considered and understood.

    This presentation is issued by Charteris Treasury Portfolio Managers Ltd. The KIID and Prospectus are available from the ACD, DMS Investment Management Services (UK) Ltd at dmsgovernance.com or Charteris at charteris.co.uk.

    Charteris Treasury Portfolio Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (company reference number 114952). 

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