petra hoelscher unicef namibia
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Petra Hoelscher UNICEF Namibia. How effective are social grants in supporting families? Tax-benefit model family analysis 3 rd ISCI Conference, York, 27-29 July 2011. 2 nd lowest population density in the world. Some scenery. Highest sand dunes in the world. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
How effective are social grants in supporting families? Tax-benefit model family analysis
3rd ISCI Conference, York, 27-29 July 2011
Petra Hoelscher
UNICEF Namibia
2nd lowest population density in the world
Some scenery
Highest sand dunes in the world
Highest income inequality in the world
20 30 40 50 60 70 800
20
40
60
80
100
120
GINI coefficient
Ra
tio
of
the
ric
he
st
10
% t
o t
he
po
ore
st
10
%
NAMIBIA
Angola
South Africa
Botswana
Japan
Source: UNDP HDR 2009
1981 1990 20050
10
20
30
40
50
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
poverty GDP
Source: World Bank WDI and UNDESA 2009
Poverty rates (USD 1.25) & GDP per capita
Namibia – one of the few African countries with government funded social grant system
Basic state grants – universal old age pensions and pension for people with disabilities: N$ 500
Child welfare grants – child maintenance grants (mainly for orphans), foster care grants and special maintenance grants (for children with disabilities): N$ 200
War veteran grants – for participants in liberation struggle: N$ 2000
Contributory social security – provisions for maternity, long term sickness, work-related accidents/illness/death
But system not geared towards poverty reduction
Orphaned Children
(155,000)
Foster Children
Vulnerable & Poor
Children
Child Welfare Grants (127,000)
NHIES: Child poverty profile
Impact of social grants on poverty
Social Protection Qualitative
Assessment:How do poor children
live?
How do services and systems interact with poor families and their
children
Will Better inform programming outcomes
SA Study tourHow it will work in
practice
Expected costs, experiences &
lessons learned
Administrative processes
ST
RA
TE
GY
& T
HE
HO
W
Tax-benefit model family analysis:Visualises child
povertyPotential impact of
social grantsModelling impact of
alternative policy options
Different policy optionsModelling & costing of alternative policy options
Strategies for gradually phasing in
Tax-benefit model family analysis
Mapping out for different typical model families different income levels (formal and informal) income taxes paid social contributions paid social grants received expenditure for child health package (children at different
ages) expenditure for education (urban/rural)
How much income is left for the family? How far away are they from the poverty line? Can social grants reduce poverty? Alternative policy options
Basic assumptions Families have one earner Everybody in the formal sector pays tax and social contributions No private pensions & health insurance taken into account Anybody entitled to benefits gets them Child welfare grants paid to orphaned children Education cost include: school development fund, school
uniforms (incl. track suits), stationery, extra-curricular activities – costs in urban areas considered higher than in rural
Health cost include: annual clinic fees for children for standard health package: immunisation & growth monitoring for infants and U5, bednets for U5, health and dental check-ups for primary school children
Costs do not include transport to school or clinics
Methodological challenges
Family structures are very complex and variable (for adults and children in the household), issue of kinship care, incl. for children with both parents alive
No reliable data on household composition from census or NHIES
Income difficult to estimate, often irregular Analysis focuses on low income jobs, covering majority of
population; 51.2% unemployment many families no income & no income support
Analysis applies consumption poverty line to income – home consumption, support from relatives, remittances etc. not taken into account
Poverty line comparatively low
How to determine the poverty line
Poverty line NHIES 2003/04: N$ 262.45 per adult equivalent per month adults, 16 years and over – 1 children, 6-15 – 0.75 poverty line: N$ 196.84 children, 0-5 – 0.5 poverty line: N$ 131.23
Uprating based on Consumer Price Index
Food index 2003: 121.6 July 2010: 199.4
Adjusted poverty line: N$ 430.4 per adult equivalent per month adults, 16 years and over – 1 children, 6-15 – 0.75 poverty line: N$ 322.7 children, 0-5 – 0.5 poverty line: N$ 215.2
(Exchange rate: approx. N$ 7 –US$ 1, N$ 10 – 1 €)
Case 1: 2 adults, 1 infant, 1 U5, 2 school age, urban
N$ 500 net N$ 1000 net N$ 2500 net N$ 5000 net
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Earnings Basic state grant Child welfare grantSocial contributions Income tax Child health packageEducation package
poverty line
Case 2: 2 adults, 1 infant, 1 U5, 2 school age, rural
poverty line
N$ 150 net N$ 700 net N$ 1000 net N$ 2500 net
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Earnings Basic state grant Child welfare grantSocial contributions Income tax Child health packageEducation package
Case 3: 1 parent, 1 infant, 1 U5, 2 school age, all orphaned, urban
poverty line
N$ 500 net N$ 1000 net N$ 2500 net N$ 5000 net
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Earnings Basic state grant Child welfare grantSocial contributions Income tax Child health packageEducation package
income & costs net income
-1800
-1300
-800
-300
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
EducationHealthChild grantsPensionsSocial securityEarnings
Case 4: 1 pensioner urban, 2 U5, 1 school age, 7 orphans (1 infant, 2 U5, 4 school age)
poverty line
Policy option 1: universal child welfare grants2 adults, 1 infant, 1 U5, 2 school age, urban
poverty line
N$ 500 net N$ 1000 net N$ 2500 net N$ 5000 net
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Earnings Basic state grant Child welfare grant
Social contributions Income tax Child health package
Education package
Policy option 2: means-tested CWG @ N$ 36,000 p.a.2 adults, 1 infant, 1 U5, 2 school age, urban
poverty line
N$ 500 net N$ 1000 net N$ 2500 net N$ 5000 net
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Earnings Basic state grant Child welfare grantSocial contributions Income tax Child health packageEducation package
Summary of results
Low income families great difficulties to make ends meet – only family (2 adults, 4 children) with N$ 2500 above poverty line
Cost of education prohibitive for many families Tax threshold high enough to protect low income
families, social security contributions low enough to be affordable
Pensions and child welfare grants can be important contribution to families‘ income – but not reaching low income families
Pensions and child welfare grants alone cannot lift families out of poverty
Orphaned Children
(155,000)
Foster Children
Vulnerable & Poor
Children
Child Welfare Grants (127,000)
NHIES: Child poverty profile
Impact of social grants on poverty
Social Protection Qualitative
Assessment:How do poor children
live?
How do services and systems interact with poor families and their
children
Will Better inform programming outcomes
SA Study tourHow it will work in
practice
Expected costs, experiences &
lessons learned
Administrative processes
ST
RA
TE
GY
& T
HE
HO
W
Tax-benefit model family analysis:Visualises child
povertyPotential impact of
social grantsModelling impact of
alternative policy options
Towards an integrated social protection framework for children:
National Development Plan 4NPA for Children
Policy options
