peter saunders and christopher snowdon presentation to the rsa. july 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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A critique ofThe Spirit Level
Peter Saunders(author: Beware False Prophets)
Chris Snowdon(author: The Spirit Level Delusion)
Debate at the Royal Society of Arts, London,
22 July 2010
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HAPPINESS/EQUALITY
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HAPPINESS/GNI ($)
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Quality of life index
1. Health: Life expectancy at birth (in years). Source: US Census Bureau2. Family life: Divorce rate (per 1,000 population), converted into index of 1 (lowest divorce rates) to 5
(highest). Sources: UN; Euromonitor3. Community life: Variable taking value 1 if country has either high rate of church attendance or trade-
union membership; zero otherwise. Source: World Values Survey4. Material well being: GDP per person, at PPP in $. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit5. Political stability and security: Political stability and security ratings. Source: Economist Intelligence
Unit
6. Climate and geography: Latitude, to distinguish between warmer and colder climates. Source: CIAWorld Factbook7. Job security: Unemployment rate (%.) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit8. Political freedom:Average of indexes of political and civil liberties. Scale of 1 (completely free) to 7
(unfree). Source: Freedom House9. Gender equality: Measured using ratio of average male and female earnings. Source: UNDP Human
Development Report
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Quality of life index
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Quality of life index
There is no evidence for an explanation sometimes
proffered for the apparent paradox of increasing incomes
and stagnant life-satisfaction scores: the idea that an
increase in someones income causes envy and reducesthe welfare and satisfaction of others. In our estimates,
the level of income inequality had no impact on levels of
life satisfaction.
The Economist Quality of Life index (2005)
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Now that good data on income inequality have become available
for 16 western industrialised countries, the association between
income inequality and life expectancy has disappeared.
Prof. Johan Mackenbach, Professor of Public Health, University of
Rotterdam
Income inequality and population health: Evidence favouring a
negative correlation between income inequality and life expectancy
has disappeared, British Medical Journal, 2002 (Editorial)
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Although there are many puzzles that remain, I conclude that there
is no direct link from income inequality to ill-health; individuals are
no more likely to die if they live in more unequal places.
Prof. Angus Deaton, Professor of Economics and International
Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School and the Economics
Department at Princeton
Health, inequality and economic development, Journal of Economic
Literature, May 2001
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The preponderance of evidence suggests that the relationship
between income inequality and health is either non-existent or too
fragile to show up in a robustly estimated panel specification. The
best cross-national studies now uniformly fail to find a statistically
reliable relationship between economic inequality and longevity.- Andrew Leigh, Professor of Economics, Australian National
University, Christopher Jencks, Malcolm Wiener Professor of Social
Policy, Harvard Kennedy School, Timothy Smeeding, Distinguished
Professor of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin.
Health and economic inequality in W. Salverda et al (eds), TheOxford Handbook of Economic Inequality2009
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LIFE EXPECTANCY
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LIFE EXPECTANCY
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LIFE EXPECTANCY
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OBESITY
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OBESITY
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The evidence presented in the book is mostly a series of
scatter diagrams with a regression line drawn through
them. If you remove the bold lines from the diagram, the
pattern of points mostly looks random, and the datadominated by a few outliers.
John Kay, Professor of Economics at London Business
School, Financial Times 2009
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1. OUTLIERS:
Income Inequality and HomicideIfBritain became as equal as [Scandinavia] homicide rates could fall by 75%With USA: R2 = 0.22, p=0.025
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1. OUTLIERS:
Income Inequality and HomicideIfBritain became as equal as [Scandinavia] homicide rates could fall by 75%With USA: R2 = 0.22, p=0.025 Without USA: R
2 = 0.10, p=0.159(not significant)
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1. OUTLIERS:
Inequality and Childhood ObesityWith USA: R2 = 0.306; p = 0.008
Without USA: R2 = 0.084;
p = 0.129 (not significant)
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1. OUTLIERS:
Inequality and Life expectancyWith Japan: R2 = 0.154, p= 0.036. Without Japan: R
2 = 0.057,
p = 0.148 (not significant)
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2.CULTURAL/HISTORICAL FACTORS:
Inequality and Womens statusWith Scandinavia: R2 = 0.211,p =0.016
Without Scandinavia:R2 = -0.030,p = 0.503 (not significant)
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2.CULTURAL/HISTORICAL FACTORS:
Inequality and Patents(NB: Unequal variances)With Scandinavia: R2 = 0.203,
p = 0.020
Without Scandinavia: R2 = 0.013, p =0.287 (not significant)
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WHY ITS CRUCIAL TO TEST FOR CULTURAL/
HISTORICAL FACTORS
Saunders tries to dismiss our evidence by variously excluding countries...
arbitrarily cutting out certain countries (Wilkinson and Pickett, The Guardian
website, 9 July 2010)
Japan, Scandinavia
Traditional agrarian latedevelopers
Folk tradition, strong
national/collective identity
Ethnic homogeneity, lowimmigration, little inter-
marriage with outsiders
State expresses ideal of
Peoples Home
UK and Anglo settler countries
Very early moderniser, earlydemise of feudalism
Weak family bonds, strongly
individualistic values
Heterogenous (esp. settlercountries), plural and
diverse
State distrusted as threat to
individual liberty
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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLES:
Inequality, Ethnicity and US homicidesHomicide and income inequality
R2=0.269, p
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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLES:Multivariate model predicting Homicide from income inequality,
ethnic composition and Deep South dummy variable
Model fit R2 =0.613,
p
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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLESInequality, Ethnicity and US infant mortalityInfant mortality and incomeinequality (R2 = 0.143, p=0.007)
Infant mortality and % African-American (R2 = 0.544 p
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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLESMultivariate model predicting infant mortality from income
inequality, ethnic composition and Deep South dummy variable Model fit R2 = 0.487,
p
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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLES
Once we control for the fraction of the population that
is black, there is no relationship between income
inequality and mortality across statesAngus Deaton, Professor of Economics & International Affairs, Princeton (Mortality,
inequality and race in American cities and states, Social Science & Medicine, 2003
Correcting" our US state analyses for the proportion of
black inhabitants is...racist because it implies the
problem is inherently the people themselves rather thantheir socioeconomic position.Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, Peter Saunderss sleight of hand, The Guardian
web site, 9 July 2010
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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLES
Once we control for the fraction of the population that isblack, there is no relationship between income inequalityand mortality across statesAngus Deaton, Professor of Economics & International Affairs, Princeton (Mortality,
inequality and race in American cities and states, Social Science & Medicine, 2003
The suggestion that the results in the US reflect theproportion of black people in each state is inaccurate andcontains a seriously racist slur... Correcting" our US state
analyses for the proportion of black inhabitants is...racistbecause it implies the problem is inherently the peoplethemselves rather than their socioeconomic position.Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, Peter Saunderss sleight of hand, The Guardian website, 9 July 2010
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4: Theory is refuted by trends over time
UK total crime 1960-2000 UK life expectancy 1979-2008
International life expectancy 1980-2000 International infant mortality 1980-2000
UK infant mortality 1961-2008
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5. The theory doesnt fit JapanWilkinson & Picketts inadequate, one-dimensional understanding of
social stratification leads to major problems in their account
John Goldthorpe, Analysing social inequality, European Sociological Review2009
How people see youmatters...social status [isone of] the most
important markers ofpsychosocial stress inmodern societies
The Spirit Level, 40-1
Japan is a society in whichhierarchical ranking permeatespersonal interactions morethan mostRon Dore, Taking Japan Seriously1987
Hierarchical ranking runsthrough Japanese life.... There
is no doubt that hierarchicaldifferences affect interactionbetween Japanese people intheir everyday lives. It isdifficult to know how tobehave unless one can placeother people in a hierarchicalorder in relation to oneselfJoy Hendry, Understanding JapaneseSociety, 3rd edn, 2003
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6.Different indicators, different findings...
Social misery is higher in
more equal societies
R=0.64, Adjusted R2 = 0.39, p