NDU Journal 2015 35

PERSPECTIVES ON PAKISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY

Noel Israel Khokhar

Abstract

Rapid changes in contemporary international security environment are impacting on Pakistan’s national security in diverse ways; creating challenges and opportunities. Increasing multipolarity, greater mobility of people, finances and ideas and rise of violent non state actors characterise the change which necessitates analysis of the strategic environment with a view to developing an objective perspective on Pakistan’s national security. Emphasising Quaid e Azam’s direction for “Peace Within and Peace Without”, the article proffers proposals on national security policy formulation i.e. structural and policy aspects to accrue optimum benefits from the increasing pre-eminence of geo-economic developments in the region.

Introduction

Security is a contested, yet fundamental concept which continues to underscore politics of state security and development in the contemporary anarchic world.1 Currently, three broad trends which are impacting issues related to national security can be identified. Firstly, the redistribution of power from west to east and north to south is fostering multipolarity. Secondly, the phenomenon of accelerated globalisation and rapid technological growth facilitating free movement of commodities, finances, people and ideas are integrating as well as dividing people. On the other hand, rise of violent non state actors employing weapon of terror for political gains, is multiplying national security challenges. In their combined effect, these forces are challenging the security of states in divers’ ways. Pakistan, owing to developments along its flanks, has been particularly affected by the interplay of these factors. Projecting into future, it appears that the

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politics at work in our neighbourhood is likely to intensify in order to detriment its national security and development. On the domestic front, influenced by the regional security scenario, internal security challenges emerged as a source of major concern. This dynamic dictates the need for an effective long term national security policy which carries bipartisan support and is consistently implemented as a national imperative.

This article intends to discuss perspectives on Pakistan’s national security with a view to contribute towards the discourse and make proposals for augmenting approaches and measures for national security. The initial review of prevailing situation aims to identify challenges and opportunities in conjunction with the historical perspective. Together, they provide a background to assess the effectiveness of security polices in operation and the resultant analysis. It is expected that it will enrich the proposals for augmenting national security in the longer run. The article argues that after more than six decades of inception, today a positive vibe and collective urge for betterment is visible in the polity. This environment as a denominator presents an opportunity for ameliorating structural, directional, capacity and capability related dimensions of national security. It is a historical moment, which if captured and capitalised by leadership at all tiers, carries the power to significantly transform the country. However, the course is also laden with challenges, which merit recognition and proactive engagement.

Contemporary Security Perspective

Political Stability, Democracy and Good Governance

Contemporary overview of national politics projects Pakistan as a country transforming into a potentially stable democracy with reinvigorated democratic and state institutions. A process in which political parties and state institutions are simultaneously colluding and conflicting to transform the formal democracy, practiced since inception, into a more participatory democracy. The ongoing attitudinal

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and structural transformation, occurring under different pressures at the structural level, aims at transforming the existing two tiered governance into a three tiered system i.e. federal, provincial and local governments to address the imbalance, created by demographic growth. This process, if successfully completed, indicates an opportunity for greater political stability, practice of participatory democracy and provision of greater voice to the people in formulation and execution of measures related to human security2. On the other hand, if the process is arrested or circumvented by orchestrating status quo in transfer of power to grass root level, it will only imperil national security in the long run.

Today, the polity in Pakistan is politically conscious and desire a better future for themselves and their future generations. They support democracy as primary political arrangement and expect political leaders to deliver especially on the count of good governance. Since the debate between more provinces or local governments has, for the time being, settled in favour of latter, therefore, instituting and operationalising local governments entails substantive legislative and administrative preparations besides conduct of free and fair local governments elections.3 Efficacious laws and allotment of financial resources through provincial finance commission awards for such governments will facilitate their effectiveness. The transformative process, undertaken in tandem with structural devolution of power, will be messy and may present a picture of some degree of lack of control. Yet, democracy in its transformative stage, is usually disruptive and chaotic in nature. Time, perseverance and consistency in seeing the transformation through to its logical end are essential while instituting institutional measures to prevent misuse of power will engender long term political stability and security of the country.

Economic Security

In the context of economic security, Pakistan’s economy is 26th largest in purchasing power parity terms and 42nd largest in terms of nominal gross GDP. The GDP per capita at $3,149

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ranks at 140th in the world. However, with population of 187 million, a favourable demographic dividend and immense locational / resource potential, these figures do not reflect true potentials of the country. Inadequate tax policy revenue collection and inability to document sizeable undocumented economy make the country prone to excessive borrowing from external and internal lenders. This hamstrings financial security as well as the delivery capacity of the government. Resultantly, the country is ranked as a lower middle income country with GDP of 232.3 billion.4 The current fiscal policies have however created a positive outlook for GDP growth over next two years i.e. from 3.7% in 2014 to 4.2% and 4.5% in 2015 and 2016 respectively with a low inflation at 5.8%. Understandably, due to host of internal and security related issues, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) stood at paltry $175 million in 2013. It has risen to $1.6 billion, therefore with investment potential for $38billion plus, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and trade with Central Asian states and Iran portend transformative potentials.

The current government has witnessed a windfall due to drastic drop in global oil prices and it remains to be seen how the windfall is utilised to serve the interests of the people of Pakistan. Trade with India has grown and registers potentials but is arrested due to Indian attitude and behaviour. Pakistan’s export to India stood at USD 158 million in 2002 which rose to USD 392 million in 2014. Similarly, Pakistan’s imports from India during the same period rose form USD 454 million to USD 2.1 billion.5 However, since India has greater state capacity for subsidising producers, their products will always have cost advantage viz Pakistan. The differential present challenges which need to be addressed to tap the six digit potential of local trade. These opportunities especially those associated with the neighbours also present diplomatic and capacity related challenges which merit cognizance and contingency planning.

Internal Security

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Internal security threat from militants, sectarian and pseudo secessionist forces which has devastated the country for more than a decade, is now being dealt with a clear policy of zero tolerance for violence. The first ever National Internal Security Policy (NISP) 2013 initially provided policy guidelines but torn between dialogue and military action, resulted into long initial gestation period of inaction. The failure of talks with Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) led to military operations in FATA. The Peshawar Army Public School massacre of children in December 2014 renewed national resolve and resulted into formulation of National Action Plan (NAP). The political government prioritised military effort i.e. operation Zarb e Azb over the civilian action to reform Madaris and to rid the society of extremism.

The successful military operation being prosecuted in FATA and supported efforts in Balochistan and Karachi as well as the support to civil government to prevent backlash in major urban centres is displaying positive effects and the terrorist attacks are down since 2014.6 The security operations in Balochistan picked up momentum transforming significantly local politics and efforts of law enforcement agencies in Karachi has resulted in substantially improved security situation, albeit some political repercussions. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the people of Sindh expect better governance form the provincial government to transform the success into a stable security situation.

The current predominant focus of government on internal security, economic development, fiscal stabilisation and addressing resource security especially power and gas sectors has resulted in according lower priority to some critical sectors like education, health and social security. Today 58.7 million Pakistanis are malnourished with 46% in rural and 18% in urban centres.7 While it may be argued that after 18thAmendment and 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award on more equitable basis, these subjects fall in provincial domain and the provinces require capacity building. Yet, it is the overall governance which needs to ingest financial devolution at provincial and local

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governments and technological revolution for benefit of common man.

Civil Military Relations

Management of Civil Military Relations has been a persistent challenge for politics in Pakistan. It seems that a tenacious balance with positive outlook has emerged. After a brief initial period of misunderstandings, the political and military leaders have been able to develop consensus on combating terrorism, sectarianism and violence in the country on priority and situation is rapidly moving towards greater internal stability. The communication between civil and military leadership is frequent resulting into greater cooperation and focus on result oriented policies. It augers well as the political leadership and media stand firmly behind military in its internal security operations. Delving deeper into identifying the sources of terrorism beyond the common narrative, intelligence organisations have been able to expose the involvement of Pakistan’s neighbours in fomenting internal instability in Pakistan, a fact which the Indian leadership in short sighted bravado readily accepted.8The need is now to implement remaining elements of NAP on priority.

Counter Argument

In the counter argument, some may argue that the aforementioned perspective appears to be too optimistic to be actually true. The critics can argue that corruption in Pakistan is still widespread and remains the single largest national curse. On Corruption Index, the country is ranked 127th out of 177, the gap between rich and poor as per GINI Index stands at 29.3% and the government has demonstrated minimum will, to speedup tax reforms and efforts to document the undocumented economy. There has been a steady flight of capital from the country with Pakistanis feeling more comfortable investing in Dubai rather than their own country.9 Similarly, the impact of climate change is intensifying every year, severely affecting different aspects of

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state and human security, besides causing huge economic losses, while substantive efforts for disaster risk reduction are missing. It is necessary that the persistent and emerging dimensions of national security be refocused at with urgency. These are valid observations and are symptoms of multiple systemic problems which require attention and remedial action. These have been included in the policy measures discussed in response portion.

Burden of History

India, in its bilateral relations with Pakistan, carries greater burden of history. Post partition politics, unresolved Kashmir and other issues and consequent strategic competition underscore mutual hostility. Kashmir issue continues to persistently knock on the conscious of United Nations and International Community as the single largest case of denial of human rights and right of self-determination. It stands out as a long standing recurring story of state terrorism, oppression, and a killing fields punctuated by mass graves. However, the resolve of people of Kashmir and Pakistan remains steadfast and they will not rest till Kashmiris get their right of self-determination. The fact is clear to the Indian policy makers, yet subversive policies for orchestrate denial of the right only imperils stability in South Asia. It seems that today more than ever before, India needs a political leader who can break the paradigm of hostility and lead their country and the region in playing a constructive role for resolving bi-lateral issues. Ironically, the incumbent Prime Minister of India has demonstrated that he is not the man, rather he is more comfortable in enacting the ‘Shooting for the Century’ model of Cohen.10

Concerned by the inadequate outcome of its Afghan Policy, increasing role of China in Afghanistan and the potential of CPEC as a game changer India, instead of pursuing policy of engagement seems comfortable with prolonging its self-defeating policy of destabilising Pakistan. Essentially, to buy time for maintaining status quo and altering demography in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK). The deterioration in Pakistan-

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India relations and inability of Indian Government to engage in a meaningful dialogue, therefore, emerges as a source of concern. It is mainly due to Indian intransigence, her inability to recognise changing strategic landscape in South Asia and her policy for seeking regional hegemony rather than cooperation and strategic stability in South Asia.

In the context of Pakistan-Afghan Relations, there has been a substantial change as far as Afghanistan’s policy towards Pakistan is concerned. Post US draw down, successful conduct of elections and appointment of President Ashraf Ghani as President of Afghanistan and head of Unity Government augers well for the country as well as Pakistan. The change is laying strong foundation for growth of friendly relations between the two countries. The intra Afghan reconciliation process and the consequent dialogue (although in initial throes and challenged by numerous factors including death of Mullah Umar) remains the strategic way forward. Reconciliation is inevitable while Taliban may strive for a better bargain by continuing with violence. Pakistan’s role and China’s support in this context remain critical.

Recognising the ongoing changes in global and regional political environment, Pakistan’s foreign policy is now more balanced. It needs to be consistently guided by the Quaid’s directive of ‘Peace Within and Peace Without.’ There has been significant reduction in anti-Americanism in Pakistan and the two states are rebuilding relations recognising and respecting each other’s interests. However, it remains for US to balance its international priorities with imperatives of stability in South Asia. Pakistan-China Friendship remains substantive and the CPEC has added depth to it. The balance has also enabled a thaw in Pakistan-Russia relations, this new beginning auger well for both the countries. However, growing instability in Middle East and cleavage caused by Yemen crisis in Pakistan’s relations with Arab friends, is a source of concerns. Pakistan’s efforts to steer clear of the sectarian conflict in Middle East engineered by Islamic State as well the strategic competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia is essential for pursuing a long term balanced foreign policy for

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Middle East (reckoning the Iran deal and the rise of IS). Having reviewed the developments in external and internal security matrix to crystallise perspective on challenges and opportunities, it is pertinent now to analyse the institutional arrangements for formulating and executing national security policy and attendant strategies and measures.

National Security Management System (NSMS)

Pakistan, for decades, has lacked an effective NSMS. The system finds context in the political system of the country. The regular alteration of power between civil and military governments diverted focus and prevented NSMS to mature. The events of 9/11, rapid globalisation, IT revolution and rise of violent non-state actors emphasised the need for evolving comprehensive national security policy and devising a system to formulate, execute and monitor application of the policy. Most developed countries consistent with the threat matrix and genius of its people have developed and deployed NSMS. In Pakistan, NSMS was set up after a long delay by current government. It comprises National Security Committee (NSC) the apex consultative and decision making body for national security policies (the NSC in most western countries is chaired by President/Prime Minister and meets regularly). The NSC and its Academic Committee has been resourced with some national think tanks. The hardware is in place and software is maturing. However the NSMS has not been fully integrated in implementation of NAP. The integration would have enabled it to mature and streamline its processes and procedures making it a more efficient and effective. The NSC is currently engaged in preparing a national security policy yet it, has not assumed the significance which is normally accorded to it in developed countries.

National Security Policy Perspective

Pakistan today, stands at cross roads so far national security is concerned. The positive vibe prevailing in the environment despite enormous challenges combined with bipartisan support for pragmatic polices has the potentials for

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altering the course of the history. Alternately internal divisions, interest based politics and corruption can prevent that from happening. The international security environment indicates significant changes. The transition from unipolarity to multipolarity and Pakistan location in the neighbourhood of a global power (China) and emerging regional power (India) which is inimical to former and is aligned with US and West continues to portend challenges and opportunities. The awakening and growing instability in Middle East, rise of Islamic State and intensification in strategic competition astride the Gulf, can inextricably draw Pakistan into a possible fatalistic strategic competition and conflict.

On the domestic front, uncontrolled growth in population, scarcity of power, energy and water resources present enormous governance and security challenges. The economy is rebalancing itself yet demands political action appropriate hard decisions to document undocumented economy, enhance tax base and revenue collection and bring in investments to ignite economic growth. The foremost requirement is to articulate a world view based on the principles laid down by Quaid e Azam of ‘Peace within and Peace without.’ Political leadership has to provide direction and mobilise census for an inclusive politics, ridding the society of violence and appropriate curricular reforms to rebalance the society and future generations.

Political Stability and Quality of Democracy

Foremost for Pakistan’s national security is political stability. It is argued by the analysts that developmental approach to politics may win votes and prolong longevity of formal democracy and the political regimes, yet foundations of a sustainable democracy can only be laid by an elite which respects democracy, democratic institutions and exercises political power through them. For making democracy attractive for a common man, existing formal democracy has to rapidly transition towards a more participatory democracy which incorporates the grass root level. The quality of democracy, governance and state institutions have to improve.

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The policies should aim at addressing the immediate concerns and problems of the common man. Therefore, political security and long term stability in Pakistan can be accrued through a participatory democracy which delivers results.

Expectantly pursuant to Supreme Court’s decision, election for local governments will be completed in 2015. However, the devolution would only become effective if the respective provincial devolution bills also incorporate transfer of required funds and administrative powers to local governments. Institution of three tiered system of governance will also, in consequence, transform provincial and federal legislatures. Thereon, the members of legislature instead of accruing development funds will have to concentrate on legislating rather than development. The process, it is perceived, would be messy but would require consistency and sustained application. The risk of stagnation can build frustration which can lead to situations not productive for consolidating democracy.

Secondly, the efficacy of state institutions is the foundation on which the structure of national security rests. The state and its political institutions have witnessed some decline over time and have been performing at the sub optimal level. The paradigm has to change. Governance, guided by the principle of minimum government, will have to shed weight in favour of privatisation, become lean, cost effective and more effective. A national commission with the mandate to reform government and governance merits consideration. It should be mandated to make governance less costly and more cost effective. It should review the performance of state institutions, set goals, and decide indicators for performance evaluation and time schedule for periodic review. This will help arrest the decline and turn the course. The commission should comprise experts and consultants reporting directly to the Prime Minister. The devolution of power and application of the principle of minimum government also places premium on effective coordination. Interprovincial Coordination (IPC) Ministry will have to devise procedures and regulatory mechanism to ensure smooth and effective governance.

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The Quaid’s principle of ‘Peace within’ should provide the overarching policy guideline. To achieve the internal peace, government with bipartisan support should strengthen participatory democracy, relevant democratic institutions and rule of law. The three tiered system of governance provides requisite forums for dispute resolution and effective administration at relevant levels. In a federated democracy, the role of intra-provincial coordination assumes immense significance. IPC ministry should be capacitated to assume responsibility. Periodic and regular meetings of Council of Common Interest (CCI) can enable dispute resolution and needs to be prompted for fostering a peaceful society.

Internal Security

Thirdly, internal peace and harmony will, in the longer run, provide necessary conditions for revival of economy and respect in the comity of nations. Terrorism, sectarianism and militancy present systemic challenges. The policy of ‘Peace Within’ can be achieved by relentlessly pursuing the objective of ‘zero tolerance of violence in any form’ through institutional means to its logical end. It comprises short and long term measures, the short term include Operation Zarb e Azb and removing the criminal elements from cities in particular and society in general. In the long run, the police and judicial system should be able to take on the responsibilities. To this end, they should now build requisite capabilities and capacities. To turn the tide for good, there is a need to review and devise a national curriculum which promotes principles of humanity and tolerance and educates the citizens about their civic responsibilities and national values.

In a globalising and technologically enabled world, it should be expected that the country will be increasingly challenged with new and diverse threats. To proactively and effectively defend against such threats, the internal security apparatus should be modernised. Interior Ministry and its departments/organisations should be able to execute the concept of comprehensive homeland security. They have to be mandated and resourced with deficient agencies, the foremost

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need is to bring diverse border management departments under one Authority for Border Security Management (ABSM). The ABSM should be technologically enabled and linked with the military and provincial security mechanisms for deeper reach and effectiveness.

In a federated state, centralised implementation of national internal security policy presents enormous challenges. The mechanism has to expand to incorporate the provinces and to some degree, the local governments in the framework. The provinces play a major role in implementing the policy and making it a success. The provincial departments (Home Secretary, Police and Intelligence departments) should be upgraded to fulfil this responsibility. Attitudinal change in political leaders at provincial levels is, therefore, essential as ‘politics as usual’ will not accrue desired results; people desire peace and hope for their future generations. Change for better and manifestation of resolve by implementing requisite policies and strategies are essential for creating an orderly and peaceful society.

The second dimension relates to implementation of National Action Plan. The plan comprises three aspects; the military aspect is being catered by Operation Zarb e Azb in FATA and law enforcement agencies in main cities and Balochistan. The ultimate success of Operation Zarb e Zab lies in political and administrative reforms in FATA and PATA areas. There is need to main stream FATA and PATA by absorbing these into KP Province. Instituting reforms for political representation from these areas for national and provincial assemblies and extending uniform local government system.

The second aspect comprises targeting the madaris engaged in violence, criminal and terrorist activities. Having eradicated such elements, the next objective should be to reform madaris in a manner that they do not contribute to extremism and intolerance, rather become harbingers of peace in the society. The third aspect concerning judicial reforms is critical. Setting up of military courts is only an adhoc

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arrangement limited in time. The country’s judicial system (criminal and anti-terrorist) and laws burden the state rather than the accused. The paradigm has to change, it is the collective responsibility of judiciary and a debt to the nation which they should repay by bringing about paradigmatic change to provide speedy and cheap justice.

The militant forces in Balochistan are devoid of a cause and political support and collude with external powers to destabilise Pakistan. Already, the security situation has manifested a turnaround; an accomplishment which must be consolidated. With the emerging significance of CPEC in the economic turnaround, stability in Balochistan assumes paramount importance. The bonhomie in civil military relations in the province, furnish the much needed environment for crafting and implementing a multipronged strategy incorporating security, governance and economic aspects to the troubled areas. It will extend the writ of state and foster normality. The major aspects of the plan should comprise priority development of the northern route, development in Gwadar Port and city involving local populace and an economic plan for disturbed Baloch areas. Central to long term stability in Gawadar would be the measures to improve the quality of living of local population to include health, education and service sectors. A comprehensive plan for the local fisherman i.e. port facilities and living accommodation needs to be devised incorporating their requirements and aspirations. The Gawdar Development plan should lead to implement the plan to bring about attitudinal change in favour of CPEC. The turnover of governance by end of 2015 should be done in a manner that successes achieved are consolidated. Prime Minister’s role in this context will be central.

External Security

The turmoil in Middle East is laden with potential threat which can generate and rapidly multiply sectarian tension and conflict in Pakistan. It is a threat which needs to be handled at policy, strategy and governance levels. The policy of

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considered neutrality and engagement with brotherly countries is appropriate and must be relentlessly pursued. Space should not be provided to adversaries to exploit the cleavage. The strategy to insulate borders preventing ingress of Islamic State and not allowing domestic sectarian radicals for participating in the conflict in Syria and Iraq will be critical for the success of the policy. Ministry of Interior should monitor those domestic elements which display proclivity towards sectarian conflicts. It has to be followed up by an extensive media campaign highlighting the moderate nature of our society, inform it about the barbarian face of perpetrators of violence.

Pakistan’s foreign policy, guided by the principle of ‘Peace Without’, should construct strategies and deploy instruments to execute the policy in its neighbourhood and beyond. The foremost challenge persists in context of Afghanistan. Despite the growth of better understanding and joint efforts to combat terrorism in the border areas, the reconciliation still remains the key to success of the policy. The dialogue has suffered a setback due to the death of Mullah Umar. Understandably, the new leadership will take some time to consolidate its authority and power. It is therefore critical that the process of intra Afghan dialogue be carried forward to fruition. Role of Pakistan is critical which it should continue to perform in concert with China sincerely and responsibly.

The third challenge emerges from Indian hegemonic policy aiming to dissuade Pakistan form seeking resolution of Kashmir Issue in accordance with UN Resolutions. Indian policy to coerce Pakistan into a dialogue; a limited agenda set by her is of course, not acceptable. The coercive measures to include intimidation along the Line of Control, destabilising Pakistan by sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan are plainly evident. Indian discomfort with CPEC is equally visible and is feeding into the aforementioned measures. GOP has taken note and voiced concerns, however, efforts in this context have to be strategized to expose true face of India. She had exploited the post 9/11 global sentiments against terrorism and unsuccessfully attempted to obfuscate the Kashmir

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struggle, the time has changed and accurate global perspective on Kashmir needs to be re-emphasised with vigour.

At the core of Pakistan’s India policy, sits resolution of Kashmir issue in accordance with UN Resolutions. It is imperative, that Pakistan should continue to support people of Kashmir in their just political struggle for their right of self-determination. However, it is also the responsibility of Kashmiris on either side of LOC and Kashmiri Diaspora to lead the struggle. Perhaps time is optimum to seek a Kashmiri Spring.

The pursuit of a balanced foreign policy mandates good relation with existing and emerging poles of power. Suggesting a strategy for this policy is not in the purview of this article. However, the requirement is evident.

Economic Security

The economic measures instituted by GOP are starting to show effects. Recovering from the past downslide, the economy today registers a potential growth of 5.1% in 2015. “Declining inflation, relatively better growth in private sector credit and robust workers’ remittance helped propel consumer spending”.11 Narrow tax base, tax evasion and loss making public service enterprises continue to burden the economy and require urgent attention. Policy of stability and recovery should now expand to focus on growth which is essential for job creation. The FDI in form of CPEC if coupled with growth friendly strategies retain the potential to move the country into positive growth and stability phase in short to midterm. Pakistan is a connecting country, with the improvements in communication infrastructure and CPEC, it portends good potentials for increase in trade with Iran and Central Asia, States. Projects like CASA 1000 and Iran Pakistan Gas Pipeline should assist in meeting the energy demand at competitive process. Relentless pursuit of policies facilitating timely completion of these projects is important.

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Role of Military

The military is currently performing quintessential constitutional task in restoring internal stability. These measures are strengthening GOP and accruing greater political stability. However, in the long run, it is the responsibility of civil government to create and maintain order and normalcy from the outcome through a political action programme. Expectantly, the operations will be completed by end of 2015, thereby creating conditions for political stabilisation in few years. Support to and strengthening of democracy will help fostering long term political stability in the country.

It is now an opportune time for the military to assist the civil government in articulating a defence policy for future; a policy, which seeks stability through comprehensive deterrence. It should articulate balance between nuclear and conventional deterrence and structured on deploying the former as the first line of defence if the security of the country is threatened. The policy should aim to bring about qualitative change (through indigenous capabilities) in critical components of its conventional deterrence by striking balance between manpower and technology. Similarly, the military strategy is burdened by carry on effects of the past. Guided by policy, there is considerable merit in outthinking similarities with flexible response of cold war era. To draw optimally from the demographic dividend, a balance between all volunteer and professional standing armed forces mixed with a good percentage of volunteer short term service induction carries greater long term strategic advantage.

Conclusion

The article has succinctly reviewed the contemporary security challenges faced by Pakistan, reviewed our policies and institutional capabilities and identified areas of ways to administer change. It has argued for making the NSMS effective, instituting quality participatory democracy for long term political stability and uncovered challenges residing in

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the interplay of environment and polices of regional players. In the final analysis, the attitude and approach of the political leaders and their ability to administer effective good governance will be the game changer; a leadership which is focused on serving the people of Pakistan and not on their own political and personal aggrandizement.

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Notes 1Barry Buzan, People: States And Fear: National Security Problem In International Relations (Transasia Publishers, 1987).

2Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and future thrust towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encompassing areas of personal, job, health, education security etc. provide perspective to the notion of Human Security.

3 In view of the rapid growth in population inability of governance to reach out to people living away from provincial capitals generated a debate for more provinces i.e. creating three provinces in Punjab, two in Kyber Puktoonkawa, Baluchistan and Sindh. There were proposals to convert the divisions into provinces etc. However with the decision of Supreme Court for conducting and institutionalising local governments by September 2015 the debate has been settled for a three tiered governance system. The local governments will incorporate / replace the colonial district management system.

4World Bank, The World Bank Annual Report 2014 (World Bank Publications, 2014).

5Samir S. Amir and Syed Danish Hyder, Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf (Karachi: The Pakistan Business Council, 2015), http://pbc.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf.

6“Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2015,” South Asia Terrorism Portal, accessed August 25, 2015, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm.The number of attacks have declined and the balance of the ratio of fatalities in 2015 stood at two terrorist for every civilian/military killed. (759 vs 1552).

7Anwer Sumra, “SDPI Report: 58.7m Pakistanis Living below Poverty Line - The Express Tribune,” The Express Tribune, February 25, 2014.

8Mumtaz Alvi and Asim Yasin, “Resolutions in Senate, NA Condemn Statements of Indian Leaders,” The News, June 12, 2015; Afzal Khan,“India’s Role in E. Pakistan Violence to Be Exposed - Khaleej Times,” Khaleej Times, June 11, 2015, http://www.khaleejtimes.com/international/india-s-role-in-e.-pakistan-violence-to-be-exposed. Resolution in Senate, NA condemns statements of Indian leaders, “This House condemns the recent disturbing pattern of provocative and hostile statements from Indian leaders, including threatening strikes..”

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9$1.6 billion in real state of Dubai in first quarter of 2014 alone

10Stephen P. Cohen, Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2013).

11Amin Ahmed, “Pakistan’s Economy to Grow 5.1pc in 2015: ESCAP,” Dawn, May 15, 2015.

Perspectives on Pakistan’s National Security

Noel Israel Khokhar

PERSPECTIVES ON PAKISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY

Noel Israel Khokhar

Abstract

Rapid changes in contemporary international security environment are impacting on Pakistan’s national security in diverse ways; creating challenges and opportunities. Increasing multipolarity, greater mobility of people, finances and ideas and rise of violent non state actors characterise the change which necessitates analysis of the strategic environment with a view to developing an objective perspective on Pakistan’s national security. Emphasising Quaid e Azam’s direction for “Peace Within and Peace Without”, the article proffers proposals on national security policy formulation i.e. structural and policy aspects to accrue optimum benefits from the increasing pre-eminence of geo-economic developments in the region.

Introduction

Security is a contested, yet fundamental concept which continues to underscore politics of state security and development in the contemporary anarchic world. Currently, three broad trends which are impacting issues related to national security can be identified. Firstly, the redistribution of power from west to east and north to south is fostering multipolarity. Secondly, the phenomenon of accelerated globalisation and rapid technological growth facilitating free movement of commodities, finances, people and ideas are integrating as well as dividing people. On the other hand, rise of violent non state actors employing weapon of terror for political gains, is multiplying national security challenges. In their combined effect, these forces are challenging the security of states in divers’ ways. Pakistan, owing to developments along its flanks, has been particularly affected by the interplay of these factors. Projecting into future, it appears that the politics at work in our neighbourhood is likely to intensify in order to detriment its national security and development. On the domestic front, influenced by the regional security scenario, internal security challenges emerged as a source of major concern. This dynamic dictates the need for an effective long term national security policy which carries bipartisan support and is consistently implemented as a national imperative.

This article intends to discuss perspectives on Pakistan’s national security with a view to contribute towards the discourse and make proposals for augmenting approaches and measures for national security. The initial review of prevailing situation aims to identify challenges and opportunities in conjunction with the historical perspective. Together, they provide a background to assess the effectiveness of security polices in operation and the resultant analysis. It is expected that it will enrich the proposals for augmenting national security in the longer run. The article argues that after more than six decades of inception, today a positive vibe and collective urge for betterment is visible in the polity. This environment as a denominator presents an opportunity for ameliorating structural, directional, capacity and capability related dimensions of national security. It is a historical moment, which if captured and capitalised by leadership at all tiers, carries the power to significantly transform the country. However, the course is also laden with challenges, which merit recognition and proactive engagement.

Contemporary Security Perspective

Political Stability, Democracy and Good Governance

Contemporary overview of national politics projects Pakistan as a country transforming into a potentially stable democracy with reinvigorated democratic and state institutions. A process in which political parties and state institutions are simultaneously colluding and conflicting to transform the formal democracy, practiced since inception, into a more participatory democracy. The ongoing attitudinal and structural transformation, occurring under different pressures at the structural level, aims at transforming the existing two tiered governance into a three tiered system i.e. federal, provincial and local governments to address the imbalance, created by demographic growth. This process, if successfully completed, indicates an opportunity for greater political stability, practice of participatory democracy and provision of greater voice to the people in formulation and execution of measures related to human security. On the other hand, if the process is arrested or circumvented by orchestrating status quo in transfer of power to grass root level, it will only imperil national security in the long run.

Today, the polity in Pakistan is politically conscious and desire a better future for themselves and their future generations. They support democracy as primary political arrangement and expect political leaders to deliver especially on the count of good governance. Since the debate between more provinces or local governments has, for the time being, settled in favour of latter, therefore, instituting and operationalising local governments entails substantive legislative and administrative preparations besides conduct of free and fair local governments elections. Efficacious laws and allotment of financial resources through provincial finance commission awards for such governments will facilitate their effectiveness. The transformative process, undertaken in tandem with structural devolution of power, will be messy and may present a picture of some degree of lack of control. Yet, democracy in its transformative stage, is usually disruptive and chaotic in nature. Time, perseverance and consistency in seeing the transformation through to its logical end are essential while instituting institutional measures to prevent misuse of power will engender long term political stability and security of the country.

Economic Security

In the context of economic security, Pakistan’s economy is 26th largest in purchasing power parity terms and 42nd largest in terms of nominal gross GDP. The GDP per capita at $3,149 ranks at 140th in the world. However, with population of 187 million, a favourable demographic dividend and immense locational / resource potential, these figures do not reflect true potentials of the country. Inadequate tax policy revenue collection and inability to document sizeable undocumented economy make the country prone to excessive borrowing from external and internal lenders. This hamstrings financial security as well as the delivery capacity of the government. Resultantly, the country is ranked as a lower middle income country with GDP of 232.3 billion. The current fiscal policies have however created a positive outlook for GDP growth over next two years i.e. from 3.7% in 2014 to 4.2% and 4.5% in 2015 and 2016 respectively with a low inflation at 5.8%. Understandably, due to host of internal and security related issues, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) stood at paltry $175 million in 2013. It has risen to $1.6 billion, therefore with investment potential for $38billion plus, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and trade with Central Asian states and Iran portend transformative potentials.

The current government has witnessed a windfall due to drastic drop in global oil prices and it remains to be seen how the windfall is utilised to serve the interests of the people of Pakistan. Trade with India has grown and registers potentials but is arrested due to Indian attitude and behaviour. Pakistan’s export to India stood at USD 158 million in 2002 which rose to USD 392 million in 2014. Similarly, Pakistan’s imports from India during the same period rose form USD 454 million to USD 2.1 billion. However, since India has greater state capacity for subsidising producers, their products will always have cost advantage viz Pakistan. The differential present challenges which need to be addressed to tap the six digit potential of local trade. These opportunities especially those associated with the neighbours also present diplomatic and capacity related challenges which merit cognizance and contingency planning.

Internal Security

Internal security threat from militants, sectarian and pseudo secessionist forces which has devastated the country for more than a decade, is now being dealt with a clear policy of zero tolerance for violence. The first ever National Internal Security Policy (NISP) 2013 initially provided policy guidelines but torn between dialogue and military action, resulted into long initial gestation period of inaction. The failure of talks with Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) led to military operations in FATA. The Peshawar Army Public School massacre of children in December 2014 renewed national resolve and resulted into formulation of National Action Plan (NAP). The political government prioritised military effort i.e. operation Zarb e Azb over the civilian action to reform Madaris and to rid the society of extremism.

The successful military operation being prosecuted in FATA and supported efforts in Balochistan and Karachi as well as the support to civil government to prevent backlash in major urban centres is displaying positive effects and the terrorist attacks are down since 2014. The security operations in Balochistan picked up momentum transforming significantly local politics and efforts of law enforcement agencies in Karachi has resulted in substantially improved security situation, albeit some political repercussions. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the people of Sindh expect better governance form the provincial government to transform the success into a stable security situation.

The current predominant focus of government on internal security, economic development, fiscal stabilisation and addressing resource security especially power and gas sectors has resulted in according lower priority to some critical sectors like education, health and social security. Today 58.7 million Pakistanis are malnourished with 46% in rural and 18% in urban centres. While it may be argued that after 18th Amendment and 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award on more equitable basis, these subjects fall in provincial domain and the provinces require capacity building. Yet, it is the overall governance which needs to ingest financial devolution at provincial and local governments and technological revolution for benefit of common man.

Civil Military Relations

Management of Civil Military Relations has been a persistent challenge for politics in Pakistan. It seems that a tenacious balance with positive outlook has emerged. After a brief initial period of misunderstandings, the political and military leaders have been able to develop consensus on combating terrorism, sectarianism and violence in the country on priority and situation is rapidly moving towards greater internal stability. The communication between civil and military leadership is frequent resulting into greater cooperation and focus on result oriented policies. It augers well as the political leadership and media stand firmly behind military in its internal security operations. Delving deeper into identifying the sources of terrorism beyond the common narrative, intelligence organisations have been able to expose the involvement of Pakistan’s neighbours in fomenting internal instability in Pakistan, a fact which the Indian leadership in short sighted bravado readily accepted.The need is now to implement remaining elements of NAP on priority.

Counter Argument

In the counter argument, some may argue that the aforementioned perspective appears to be too optimistic to be actually true. The critics can argue that corruption in Pakistan is still widespread and remains the single largest national curse. On Corruption Index, the country is ranked 127th out of 177, the gap between rich and poor as per GINI Index stands at 29.3% and the government has demonstrated minimum will, to speedup tax reforms and efforts to document the undocumented economy. There has been a steady flight of capital from the country with Pakistanis feeling more comfortable investing in Dubai rather than their own country. Similarly, the impact of climate change is intensifying every year, severely affecting different aspects of state and human security, besides causing huge economic losses, while substantive efforts for disaster risk reduction are missing. It is necessary that the persistent and emerging dimensions of national security be refocused at with urgency. These are valid observations and are symptoms of multiple systemic problems which require attention and remedial action. These have been included in the policy measures discussed in response portion.

Burden of History

India, in its bilateral relations with Pakistan, carries greater burden of history. Post partition politics, unresolved Kashmir and other issues and consequent strategic competition underscore mutual hostility. Kashmir issue continues to persistently knock on the conscious of United Nations and International Community as the single largest case of denial of human rights and right of self-determination. It stands out as a long standing recurring story of state terrorism, oppression, and a killing fields punctuated by mass graves. However, the resolve of people of Kashmir and Pakistan remains steadfast and they will not rest till Kashmiris get their right of self-determination. The fact is clear to the Indian policy makers, yet subversive policies for orchestrate denial of the right only imperils stability in South Asia. It seems that today more than ever before, India needs a political leader who can break the paradigm of hostility and lead their country and the region in playing a constructive role for resolving bi-lateral issues. Ironically, the incumbent Prime Minister of India has demonstrated that he is not the man, rather he is more comfortable in enacting the ‘Shooting for the Century’ model of Cohen.

Concerned by the inadequate outcome of its Afghan Policy, increasing role of China in Afghanistan and the potential of CPEC as a game changer India, instead of pursuing policy of engagement seems comfortable with prolonging its self-defeating policy of destabilising Pakistan. Essentially, to buy time for maintaining status quo and altering demography in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK). The deterioration in Pakistan-India relations and inability of Indian Government to engage in a meaningful dialogue, therefore, emerges as a source of concern. It is mainly due to Indian intransigence, her inability to recognise changing strategic landscape in South Asia and her policy for seeking regional hegemony rather than cooperation and strategic stability in South Asia.

In the context of Pakistan-Afghan Relations, there has been a substantial change as far as Afghanistan’s policy towards Pakistan is concerned. Post US draw down, successful conduct of elections and appointment of President Ashraf Ghani as President of Afghanistan and head of Unity Government augers well for the country as well as Pakistan. The change is laying strong foundation for growth of friendly relations between the two countries. The intra Afghan reconciliation process and the consequent dialogue (although in initial throes and challenged by numerous factors including death of Mullah Umar) remains the strategic way forward. Reconciliation is inevitable while Taliban may strive for a better bargain by continuing with violence. Pakistan’s role and China’s support in this context remain critical.

Recognising the ongoing changes in global and regional political environment, Pakistan’s foreign policy is now more balanced. It needs to be consistently guided by the Quaid’s directive of ‘Peace Within and Peace Without.’ There has been significant reduction in anti-Americanism in Pakistan and the two states are rebuilding relations recognising and respecting each other’s interests. However, it remains for US to balance its international priorities with imperatives of stability in South Asia. Pakistan-China Friendship remains substantive and the CPEC has added depth to it. The balance has also enabled a thaw in Pakistan-Russia relations, this new beginning auger well for both the countries. However, growing instability in Middle East and cleavage caused by Yemen crisis in Pakistan’s relations with Arab friends, is a source of concerns. Pakistan’s efforts to steer clear of the sectarian conflict in Middle East engineered by Islamic State as well the strategic competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia is essential for pursuing a long term balanced foreign policy for Middle East (reckoning the Iran deal and the rise of IS). Having reviewed the developments in external and internal security matrix to crystallise perspective on challenges and opportunities, it is pertinent now to analyse the institutional arrangements for formulating and executing national security policy and attendant strategies and measures.

National Security Management System (NSMS)

Pakistan, for decades, has lacked an effective NSMS. The system finds context in the political system of the country. The regular alteration of power between civil and military governments diverted focus and prevented NSMS to mature. The events of 9/11, rapid globalisation, IT revolution and rise of violent non-state actors emphasised the need for evolving comprehensive national security policy and devising a system to formulate, execute and monitor application of the policy. Most developed countries consistent with the threat matrix and genius of its people have developed and deployed NSMS. In Pakistan, NSMS was set up after a long delay by current government. It comprises National Security Committee (NSC) the apex consultative and decision making body for national security policies (the NSC in most western countries is chaired by President/Prime Minister and meets regularly). The NSC and its Academic Committee has been resourced with some national think tanks. The hardware is in place and software is maturing. However the NSMS has not been fully integrated in implementation of NAP. The integration would have enabled it to mature and streamline its processes and procedures making it a more efficient and effective. The NSC is currently engaged in preparing a national security policy yet it, has not assumed the significance which is normally accorded to it in developed countries.

National Security Policy Perspective

Pakistan today, stands at cross roads so far national security is concerned. The positive vibe prevailing in the environment despite enormous challenges combined with bipartisan support for pragmatic polices has the potentials for altering the course of the history. Alternately internal divisions, interest based politics and corruption can prevent that from happening. The international security environment indicates significant changes. The transition from unipolarity to multipolarity and Pakistan location in the neighbourhood of a global power (China) and emerging regional power (India) which is inimical to former and is aligned with US and West continues to portend challenges and opportunities. The awakening and growing instability in Middle East, rise of Islamic State and intensification in strategic competition astride the Gulf, can inextricably draw Pakistan into a possible fatalistic strategic competition and conflict.

On the domestic front, uncontrolled growth in population, scarcity of power, energy and water resources present enormous governance and security challenges. The economy is rebalancing itself yet demands political action appropriate hard decisions to document undocumented economy, enhance tax base and revenue collection and bring in investments to ignite economic growth. The foremost requirement is to articulate a world view based on the principles laid down by Quaid e Azam of ‘Peace within and Peace without.’ Political leadership has to provide direction and mobilise census for an inclusive politics, ridding the society of violence and appropriate curricular reforms to rebalance the society and future generations.

Political Stability and Quality of Democracy

Foremost for Pakistan’s national security is political stability. It is argued by the analysts that developmental approach to politics may win votes and prolong longevity of formal democracy and the political regimes, yet foundations of a sustainable democracy can only be laid by an elite which respects democracy, democratic institutions and exercises political power through them. For making democracy attractive for a common man, existing formal democracy has to rapidly transition towards a more participatory democracy which incorporates the grass root level. The quality of democracy, governance and state institutions have to improve. The policies should aim at addressing the immediate concerns and problems of the common man. Therefore, political security and long term stability in Pakistan can be accrued through a participatory democracy which delivers results.

Expectantly pursuant to Supreme Court’s decision, election for local governments will be completed in 2015. However, the devolution would only become effective if the respective provincial devolution bills also incorporate transfer of required funds and administrative powers to local governments. Institution of three tiered system of governance will also, in consequence, transform provincial and federal legislatures. Thereon, the members of legislature instead of accruing development funds will have to concentrate on legislating rather than development. The process, it is perceived, would be messy but would require consistency and sustained application. The risk of stagnation can build frustration which can lead to situations not productive for consolidating democracy.

Secondly, the efficacy of state institutions is the foundation on which the structure of national security rests. The state and its political institutions have witnessed some decline over time and have been performing at the sub optimal level. The paradigm has to change. Governance, guided by the principle of minimum government, will have to shed weight in favour of privatisation, become lean, cost effective and more effective. A national commission with the mandate to reform government and governance merits consideration. It should be mandated to make governance less costly and more cost effective. It should review the performance of state institutions, set goals, and decide indicators for performance evaluation and time schedule for periodic review. This will help arrest the decline and turn the course. The commission should comprise experts and consultants reporting directly to the Prime Minister. The devolution of power and application of the principle of minimum government also places premium on effective coordination. Interprovincial Coordination (IPC) Ministry will have to devise procedures and regulatory mechanism to ensure smooth and effective governance.

The Quaid’s principle of ‘Peace within’ should provide the overarching policy guideline. To achieve the internal peace, government with bipartisan support should strengthen participatory democracy, relevant democratic institutions and rule of law. The three tiered system of governance provides requisite forums for dispute resolution and effective administration at relevant levels. In a federated democracy, the role of intra-provincial coordination assumes immense significance. IPC ministry should be capacitated to assume responsibility. Periodic and regular meetings of Council of Common Interest (CCI) can enable dispute resolution and needs to be prompted for fostering a peaceful society.

Internal Security

Thirdly, internal peace and harmony will, in the longer run, provide necessary conditions for revival of economy and respect in the comity of nations. Terrorism, sectarianism and militancy present systemic challenges. The policy of ‘Peace Within’ can be achieved by relentlessly pursuing the objective of ‘zero tolerance of violence in any form’ through institutional means to its logical end. It comprises short and long term measures, the short term include Operation Zarb e Azb and removing the criminal elements from cities in particular and society in general. In the long run, the police and judicial system should be able to take on the responsibilities. To this end, they should now build requisite capabilities and capacities. To turn the tide for good, there is a need to review and devise a national curriculum which promotes principles of humanity and tolerance and educates the citizens about their civic responsibilities and national values.

In a globalising and technologically enabled world, it should be expected that the country will be increasingly challenged with new and diverse threats. To proactively and effectively defend against such threats, the internal security apparatus should be modernised. Interior Ministry and its departments/organisations should be able to execute the concept of comprehensive homeland security. They have to be mandated and resourced with deficient agencies, the foremost need is to bring diverse border management departments under one Authority for Border Security Management (ABSM). The ABSM should be technologically enabled and linked with the military and provincial security mechanisms for deeper reach and effectiveness.

In a federated state, centralised implementation of national internal security policy presents enormous challenges. The mechanism has to expand to incorporate the provinces and to some degree, the local governments in the framework. The provinces play a major role in implementing the policy and making it a success. The provincial departments (Home Secretary, Police and Intelligence departments) should be upgraded to fulfil this responsibility. Attitudinal change in political leaders at provincial levels is, therefore, essential as ‘politics as usual’ will not accrue desired results; people desire peace and hope for their future generations. Change for better and manifestation of resolve by implementing requisite policies and strategies are essential for creating an orderly and peaceful society.

The second dimension relates to implementation of National Action Plan. The plan comprises three aspects; the military aspect is being catered by Operation Zarb e Azb in FATA and law enforcement agencies in main cities and Balochistan. The ultimate success of Operation Zarb e Zab lies in political and administrative reforms in FATA and PATA areas. There is need to main stream FATA and PATA by absorbing these into KP Province. Instituting reforms for political representation from these areas for national and provincial assemblies and extending uniform local government system.

The second aspect comprises targeting the madaris engaged in violence, criminal and terrorist activities. Having eradicated such elements, the next objective should be to reform madaris in a manner that they do not contribute to extremism and intolerance, rather become harbingers of peace in the society. The third aspect concerning judicial reforms is critical. Setting up of military courts is only an adhoc arrangement limited in time. The country’s judicial system (criminal and anti-terrorist) and laws burden the state rather than the accused. The paradigm has to change, it is the collective responsibility of judiciary and a debt to the nation which they should repay by bringing about paradigmatic change to provide speedy and cheap justice.

The militant forces in Balochistan are devoid of a cause and political support and collude with external powers to destabilise Pakistan. Already, the security situation has manifested a turnaround; an accomplishment which must be consolidated. With the emerging significance of CPEC in the economic turnaround, stability in Balochistan assumes paramount importance. The bonhomie in civil military relations in the province, furnish the much needed environment for crafting and implementing a multipronged strategy incorporating security, governance and economic aspects to the troubled areas. It will extend the writ of state and foster normality. The major aspects of the plan should comprise priority development of the northern route, development in Gwadar Port and city involving local populace and an economic plan for disturbed Baloch areas. Central to long term stability in Gawadar would be the measures to improve the quality of living of local population to include health, education and service sectors. A comprehensive plan for the local fisherman i.e. port facilities and living accommodation needs to be devised incorporating their requirements and aspirations. The Gawdar Development plan should lead to implement the plan to bring about attitudinal change in favour of CPEC. The turnover of governance by end of 2015 should be done in a manner that successes achieved are consolidated. Prime Minister’s role in this context will be central.

External Security

The turmoil in Middle East is laden with potential threat which can generate and rapidly multiply sectarian tension and conflict in Pakistan. It is a threat which needs to be handled at policy, strategy and governance levels. The policy of considered neutrality and engagement with brotherly countries is appropriate and must be relentlessly pursued. Space should not be provided to adversaries to exploit the cleavage. The strategy to insulate borders preventing ingress of Islamic State and not allowing domestic sectarian radicals for participating in the conflict in Syria and Iraq will be critical for the success of the policy. Ministry of Interior should monitor those domestic elements which display proclivity towards sectarian conflicts. It has to be followed up by an extensive media campaign highlighting the moderate nature of our society, inform it about the barbarian face of perpetrators of violence.

Pakistan’s foreign policy, guided by the principle of ‘Peace Without’, should construct strategies and deploy instruments to execute the policy in its neighbourhood and beyond. The foremost challenge persists in context of Afghanistan. Despite the growth of better understanding and joint efforts to combat terrorism in the border areas, the reconciliation still remains the key to success of the policy. The dialogue has suffered a setback due to the death of Mullah Umar. Understandably, the new leadership will take some time to consolidate its authority and power. It is therefore critical that the process of intra Afghan dialogue be carried forward to fruition. Role of Pakistan is critical which it should continue to perform in concert with China sincerely and responsibly.

The third challenge emerges from Indian hegemonic policy aiming to dissuade Pakistan form seeking resolution of Kashmir Issue in accordance with UN Resolutions. Indian policy to coerce Pakistan into a dialogue; a limited agenda set by her is of course, not acceptable. The coercive measures to include intimidation along the Line of Control, destabilising Pakistan by sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan are plainly evident. Indian discomfort with CPEC is equally visible and is feeding into the aforementioned measures. GOP has taken note and voiced concerns, however, efforts in this context have to be strategized to expose true face of India. She had exploited the post 9/11 global sentiments against terrorism and unsuccessfully attempted to obfuscate the Kashmir struggle, the time has changed and accurate global perspective on Kashmir needs to be re-emphasised with vigour.

At the core of Pakistan’s India policy, sits resolution of Kashmir issue in accordance with UN Resolutions. It is imperative, that Pakistan should continue to support people of Kashmir in their just political struggle for their right of self-determination. However, it is also the responsibility of Kashmiris on either side of LOC and Kashmiri Diaspora to lead the struggle. Perhaps time is optimum to seek a Kashmiri Spring.

The pursuit of a balanced foreign policy mandates good relation with existing and emerging poles of power. Suggesting a strategy for this policy is not in the purview of this article. However, the requirement is evident.

Economic Security

The economic measures instituted by GOP are starting to show effects. Recovering from the past downslide, the economy today registers a potential growth of 5.1% in 2015. “Declining inflation, relatively better growth in private sector credit and robust workers’ remittance helped propel consumer spending”. Narrow tax base, tax evasion and loss making public service enterprises continue to burden the economy and require urgent attention. Policy of stability and recovery should now expand to focus on growth which is essential for job creation. The FDI in form of CPEC if coupled with growth friendly strategies retain the potential to move the country into positive growth and stability phase in short to midterm. Pakistan is a connecting country, with the improvements in communication infrastructure and CPEC, it portends good potentials for increase in trade with Iran and Central Asia, States. Projects like CASA 1000 and Iran Pakistan Gas Pipeline should assist in meeting the energy demand at competitive process. Relentless pursuit of policies facilitating timely completion of these projects is important.

Role of Military

The military is currently performing quintessential constitutional task in restoring internal stability. These measures are strengthening GOP and accruing greater political stability. However, in the long run, it is the responsibility of civil government to create and maintain order and normalcy from the outcome through a political action programme. Expectantly, the operations will be completed by end of 2015, thereby creating conditions for political stabilisation in few years. Support to and strengthening of democracy will help fostering long term political stability in the country.

It is now an opportune time for the military to assist the civil government in articulating a defence policy for future; a policy, which seeks stability through comprehensive deterrence. It should articulate balance between nuclear and conventional deterrence and structured on deploying the former as the first line of defence if the security of the country is threatened. The policy should aim to bring about qualitative change (through indigenous capabilities) in critical components of its conventional deterrence by striking balance between manpower and technology. Similarly, the military strategy is burdened by carry on effects of the past. Guided by policy, there is considerable merit in outthinking similarities with flexible response of cold war era. To draw optimally from the demographic dividend, a balance between all volunteer and professional standing armed forces mixed with a good percentage of volunteer short term service induction carries greater long term strategic advantage.

Conclusion

The article has succinctly reviewed the contemporary security challenges faced by Pakistan, reviewed our policies and institutional capabilities and identified areas of ways to administer change. It has argued for making the NSMS effective, instituting quality participatory democracy for long term political stability and uncovered challenges residing in the interplay of environment and polices of regional players. In the final analysis, the attitude and approach of the political leaders and their ability to administer effective good governance will be the game changer; a leadership which is focused on serving the people of Pakistan and not on their own political and personal aggrandizement.

Notes

�� ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"tBhKVJow","properties":{"formattedCitation":"{\\rtf Barry Buzan, \\i People: States And Fear: National Security Problem In International Relations\\i0{} (Transasia Publishers, 1987).}","plainCitation":"Barry Buzan, People: States And Fear: National Security Problem In International Relations (Transasia Publishers, 1987)."},"citationItems":[{"id":3,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/U8388XPB"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/U8388XPB"],"itemData":{"id":3,"type":"book","title":"People: States And Fear: National Security Problem In International Relations","publisher":"Transasia Publishers","number-of-pages":"262","shortTitle":"People","language":"en","author":[{"family":"Buzan","given":"Barry"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["1987"]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} �Barry Buzan, People: States And Fear: National Security Problem In International Relations (Transasia Publishers, 1987).�

�Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and future thrust towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encompassing areas of personal, job, health, education security etc. provide perspective to the notion of Human Security.

� In view of the rapid growth in population inability of governance to reach out to people living away from provincial capitals generated a debate for more provinces i.e. creating three provinces in Punjab, two in Kyber Puktoonkawa, Baluchistan and Sindh. There were proposals to convert the divisions into provinces etc. However with the decision of Supreme Court for conducting and institutionalising local governments by September 2015 the debate has been settled for a three tiered governance system. The local governments will incorporate / replace the colonial district management system.

�� ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"lMgLkXAp","properties":{"formattedCitation":"{\\rtf World Bank, \\i The World Bank Annual Report 2014\\i0{} (World Bank Publications, 2014).}","plainCitation":"World Bank, The World Bank Annual Report 2014 (World Bank Publications, 2014)."},"citationItems":[{"id":9,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/AW3J2FBT"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/AW3J2FBT"],"itemData":{"id":9,"type":"book","title":"The World Bank Annual Report 2014","publisher":"World Bank Publications","number-of-pages":"70","abstract":"The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)--collectively known as the World Bank--in accordance with the by-laws of the two institutions. The President of the IBRD and IDA and the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submits the Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.","ISBN":"9781464802539","language":"en","author":[{"family":"Bank","given":"World"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014"]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} �World Bank, The World Bank Annual Report 2014 (World Bank Publications, 2014).�

�� ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"jpGWMcrE","properties":{"formattedCitation":"{\\rtf Samir S. Amir and Syed Danish Hyder, \\i Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf\\i0{} (Karachi: The Pakistan Business Council, 2015), http://pbc.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf.}","plainCitation":"Samir S. Amir and Syed Danish Hyder, Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf (Karachi: The Pakistan Business Council, 2015), http://pbc.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf."},"citationItems":[{"id":11,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/RHZRDHBV"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/RHZRDHBV"],"itemData":{"id":11,"type":"book","title":"Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf","publisher":"The Pakistan Business Council","publisher-place":"Karachi","event-place":"Karachi","URL":"http://pbc.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf","author":[{"family":"Amir","given":"Samir S."},{"family":"Hyder","given":"Syed Danish"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2015",8,25]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} �Samir S. Amir and Syed Danish Hyder, Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf (Karachi: The Pakistan Business Council, 2015), http://pbc.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Pakistan-India-Trade-Normalization-A-Word-of-Caution.pdf.�

�� ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"fajVUO33","properties":{"formattedCitation":"{\\rtf \\uc0\\u8220{}Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2015,\\uc0\\u8221{} \\i South Asia Terrorism Portal\\i0{}, accessed August 25, 2015, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm.}","plainCitation":"“Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2015,” South Asia Terrorism Portal, accessed August 25, 2015, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm."},"citationItems":[{"id":13,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/T22MW4RT"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/T22MW4RT"],"itemData":{"id":13,"type":"webpage","title":"Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2015","container-title":"South Asia Terrorism Portal","URL":"http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm","accessed":{"date-parts":[["2015",8,25]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} �“Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2015,” South Asia Terrorism Portal, accessed August 25, 2015, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm.�The number of attacks have declined and the balance of the ratio of fatalities in 2015 stood at two terrorist for every civilian/military killed. (759 vs 1552).

�� ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"LfQFvz44","properties":{"formattedCitation":"{\\rtf Anwer Sumra, \\uc0\\u8220{}SDPI Report: 58.7m Pakistanis Living below Poverty Line - The Express Tribune,\\uc0\\u8221{} \\i The Express Tribune\\i0{}, February 25, 2014.}","plainCitation":"Anwer Sumra, “SDPI Report: 58.7m Pakistanis Living below Poverty Line - The Express Tribune,” The Express Tribune, February 25, 2014."},"citationItems":[{"id":15,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/MX6HUTPI"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/MX6HUTPI"],"itemData":{"id":15,"type":"article-newspaper","title":"SDPI report: 58.7m Pakistanis living below poverty line - The Express Tribune","container-title":"The Express Tribune","author":[{"family":"Sumra","given":"Anwer"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014",2,25]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} �Anwer Sumra, “SDPI Report: 58.7m Pakistanis Living below Poverty Line - The Express Tribune,” The Express Tribune, February 25, 2014.�

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�$1.6 billion in real state of Dubai in first quarter of 2014 alone

�� ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"xITgZDRK","properties":{"formattedCitation":"{\\rtf Stephen P. Cohen, \\i Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum\\i0{} (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2013).}","plainCitation":"Stephen P. Cohen, Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2013)."},"citationItems":[{"id":21,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/EBGZ7P6Q"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/SKdUo2kj/items/EBGZ7P6Q"],"itemData":{"id":21,"type":"book","title":"Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum","publisher":"Brookings Institution Press","publisher-place":"Washington DC","number-of-pages":"259","event-place":"Washington DC","abstract":"The rivalry between India and Pakistan has proven to be one of the world's most intractable international conflicts, ever since 1947 when the British botched their departure from the South Asian subcontinent. And the enmity is likely to continue foranother thirty-five years, reaching the century mark. This has critical implications for both countries and the rest of the world. Renowned South Asia expert Stephen P. Cohen explains why he expects this rivalry to continue in this first comprehensive survey of thedeep historical, cultural, and strategic differences that underpin the hostility.In recent years the stakes have increased as India and Pakistan have each acquired a hundred or more nuclear weapons, blundered into several serious crises, and become victims of terrorism, some of it from across their borders. America is puzzled by the problem of dealing with a rising India and a struggling Pakistan, and Cohen offers a fresh approach for U.S. policy in dealing with these two powers.Drawing on his rich experience in South Asia to explore the character, depth, and origin of Indian and Pakistani attitudes toward each other, Cohen develops a comprehensive theory of why the dispute between New Delhi and Islamabad is likely to persist. He alsodescribes the terrible cost of this animosity for the citizens of India and Pakistan, including the region's high levels of violence and low level of economic integration. On a more hopeful note, however, he goes on to suggest developments that could ameliorate the tension, including a more active role for the UnitedStates in addressing a range of issues that divide the nations. Kashmir is one of these issues, but as much aconsequence as a cause of the rivalry.Can India and Pakistan resolve their many territorial and identity issues? Perhaps the best they can expect in the near term is a limited degree of normalization, including bottom-up ideas generated by the peace and business communities, as well as a realisticassessment by strategic elites of the two states' shared common interests.\"Right now, full normalization seems unlikely,\" Cohen writes in the preface, \"so this book is suffused with conditional pessimism: normalizat