perspectives of nuclear energy further development in armenia a. a. gevorgyan obninsk, rf 27 june...
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Perspectives of Nuclear Energy Further development in Armenia
A. A. GevorgyanObninsk, RF
27 June – 2 July 2004
Power Sector
Installed capacityArmenian NPP 815 (440) MW
Hrazdan TPP 1100 MW
Yerevan TPP 550 MW
Sevan-Hrazdan cascade of HPPs 550 MW
Vorotan cascade of HPPs 400 MW
Small HPPs 56 MW
Transmission system 220 kV 1323 km 14 substations
110 kV 3169 km 119 substations
Interconnections with all neighboring countries
Distribution system 35 kV 2675 km 278 substations
6(10) kV 9740 km overhead and 4955 km cable lines
0.4 kV 13570 km overhead and 2160 km cable lines
Armenia-Iran 220 kV transmission line, built in 1997, 150-200 MW capacity, 360 mln. kWh/ year power exchange contract. Starting 2003, line capacity increase to 300 MW
Armenia-Georgia 220 kV transmission line, 250 MW capacity,
Armenia-Azerbaijan 330 kV transmission line, 420 MW capacity, currently disconnected
Armenia-Turkey 220 kV transmission line, 300 MW capacity, currently disconnected
Main System Interconnections
The Power System Scheme
G a s s e c t o r
Transmission system
Length 1800 km
Pressure 12-55 bar
Substations 67 units
Abovyan underground storage 220 mln. cub.m (design capacity)
140 mln. cub. m (oper. capacity)
Distribution system
High pressure (6-12 bar) 558 km
Medium pressure (0.05-6 bar) 2656 km
Low pressure 6041 km
The results of asset reevaluation showed
Evolution of the Energy Sector
Replacement of the equipment in Energy Sector is required
The Energy Sector is threatened with serious equipment crisis
Equipment doesn’t comply with international standards forefficiency and environmental protection
38% of installed capacity is over 30 years old
Most TPP units have reached their design limit of operating hours
HPPs-70% of installed equipment is more than 30 years old and
-50% - more than 40 years
Water Balance of the Lake Sevan
1936 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
500
1000
1500
2000Annual Lake Out & Inflow (mcm)
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920Sevan Level (m asl)
Level
Outflow
Inflow Arpha
The Energy Security of Armenia
Energy Security - ability for the reliable energy
supply for all requirements of a person, society
and country under stable development as well as
extreme conditions. Ensuring of Energy Security is the main task and
responsibility of the State Institutions without
excepting the participation of private and public
organizations of Armenia.
GDP Growth Forecast
1988 1999 2005 2010 2015 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Reference
Low
Projected Shares in GDPReference Scenario
1999 2005 2010 2015 20200%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Agriculture
Construction
Mining
Manufacturing
Energy
Services
Final Energy Demand
1999 2005 2010 2015 20200
2
4
6
8 Reference Scenario
Low Scenario
Electricity ContributionReference & Low Scenarios
1999 2005 2010 2015 20200
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 Losses Ref
Consumption Ref
Generation Ref
Losses Low
Consumption Low
Generation Low
Supply OptionsHydropower Potential
Untapped hydropotential is 480 MW, which would generate 1800 GWh per year
60% of this can be developed at less than USc 6 / kWhShnokh (75 MW)Megri (80 MW, on the border with Iran)Small hydro projects (75 MW)
Some good locations for pumped storage plants exist
Supply OptionsOther options
Geothermalcan be used for district heating onlyresearch and development urgently required
Windpower limited potential, but some good sites exist: Pushkin Pass, Aragaz, Sevan Lake, Sisian Pass
MiscellaneousSolar too expensiveWaste incinerator (10 MW)
Supply OptionsThermal Plant
No new thermal capacity is needed until 2007
Conversion of existing thermal units to combined cycle plant is too expensive
Best candidate plant for future
combined cycle CHP 167 MW
combined cycle 300 MW
Supply OptionsNuclear Plant
New 600 (#4) MW unit would beginning to work in 2016-2017
More expensive than gas-fired CC plant, but important in the
context of fuel diversification
New 600 (#3) MW unit would replace existing unit #2 in 2015
Specific Generation Costs
20 40 60 80 100
Plant Factor (%)
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
12.5
15Generation Cost (USc/kWh)
New CC 167MW
Unit 2 NPP
Rehabilitated Hydro
New Hydro Windfarm
Small Hydro
Old TPP's
Hrazdan 2-5
New units of NPP
New CC 300MW
Installed Generation Capacities & Peak LoadReference Demand - with Nuclear
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Installed Capacities Peak Load
Installed Generation Capacities & Peak LoadReference Demand - w/o Nuclear
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
1000
2000
3000
4000
Installed Capacities Peak Load
System Present Values million 1999 US$ - Reference scenario
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
8% 10% 12%
bln. US$
Reference with Nuclear Reference w/o Nuclear
Energy Generation Shares by FuelReference Demand - Nuclear Scenario
1999 2005 2010 2015 20200%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% Coal &Wood
Hydro
Nuclear
Mazut
Diesel
Kerosene
Petrol
LPG
Gas
Energy Generation Shares by Fuel
Reference Demand - CC Scenario
1999 2005 2010 2015 20200%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% Coal &Wood
Hydro
Nuclear
Mazut
Diesel
Kerosene
Petrol
LPG
Gas
Natural Gas ConsumptionAll Demand Scenarios
1999 2005 2010 2015 20200
2
4
6
8
10bln. m3
Reference_NPP
Reference_CC
Low_NPP
Low_CC
Gas-duck capacity
Cost of Electricity
1999 2005 2010 2015 20200
2
4
6
8USc/kWh
Reference_NPP
Reference_CC
Low_NPP
Low_CC
Average
Environmental AnalysisExternal Specific Cost of Electricity Generation
0.0000743
0.000224
0.000276
0.134
0.133
0.131
0.13
0.128
0.132
0.132
0.12
0.0875
0.0891
0.0891
0.0283
0.0035
Tatev HPP (157 MW)
Shamb HPP (171 MW)
Spandaryan HPP (76 MW)
Yereven TPP (50 MW)
Yereven TPP (150 MW)
Hrazdan TPP (50 MW)
Hrazdan TPP (100 MW)
Hrazdan TPP (200 MW)
Vanadzor TPP (12 MW)
Vanadzor TPP (47 MW)
Hrazdan TPP-constr. (300 MW)
Hrazdan CC-New (300 MW)
Yerevan CHP-New (167 MW)
Hrazdan CHP-New (167 MW)
NPP-Existing (415 MW)
NPP-New (640 MW)
0 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16
Environmental AnalysisTotal External Costs (discounted, IR-10%)
0
20
40
60
Energy security and independenceReference demand - Nuclear scenario
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
0
20
40
60
80
100% of independence
Nuclear Conrtibution
Hydro Contribution - Old
Hydro Contribution - New
Wind Contribution
Energy security and independenceReference demand - CC scenario
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
0
20
40
60
80
100% of independence
Nuclear Conrtibution
Hydro Contribution - Old
Hydro Contribution - New
Wind Contribution
Development of Nuclear Energy on the base of Modern Technologies
Preparation for replacement of existing NPP units by modern ones
Enhance Nuclear Safety not only at the Plant level, but also by System measures
Strengthen and Development Gas and Electrical Interconnections to neighbouring countries
Develop Wind, Solar and Geothermal