perspectives Économiques mondiales · brazil 4.3m canada 139k 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 mar...
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PERSPECTIVES ÉCONOMIQUES MONDIALES
Avec Peter Hall, Vice-président et économiste en chef Exportation et développement Canada
Saint-Georges – Le 17 septembre 2020
Economic InsightsPeter Hall@PeterGHallXIII
2 edc.trade/economic-insights@PeterGHallXIII Peter Hall
U.S.6.5m China
90k
Spain 566k
Italy289k
29 million
Russia1.1m
UK371k
Sources: EDC Economics; John’s Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center.
Brazil 4.3m
Canada139k
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Global Confirmed Cases5-day average, thousandWorld total
India4.8m
South Africa649k
Mexico 668k
Peru729k
CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASESAs of September 14, 2020
3 edc.trade/economic-insights@PeterGHallXIII Peter Hall
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105Index values, Nov 2019 = 100
RETAIL SALES: LOOKS LIKE A “V” TO ME!
Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics
U.S.
Canada
Euro Area
4 edc.trade/economic-insights@PeterGHallXIII Peter Hall
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105Index values, Nov 2019 = 100
GOODS EXPORTS: ANOTHER V-SHAPED RECOVERY!
Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics
U.S.
Canada
Euro Area
5 edc.trade/economic-insights@PeterGHallXIII Peter Hall
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105Index values, Nov 2019 = 100
NOT SO FOR SERVICES EXPORTS: THE DREADED “L”
Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics
U.S.
CanadaEuro Area
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Global merchandise trade volumesannual % change
-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
2017 2018 2019 2020
Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, WTO April 2020 Trade Forecast
WTO forecast for goods trade expects a 13% drop in 2020.
GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRADEWhile global merchandise trade was hit hard during shutdowns in March through May, early indications suggest that a rebound began in June.
7 edc.trade/economic-insights@PeterGHallXIII Peter Hall
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Total
Food
Energy
FM
Autos & parts
Aerospace
Consumer
WIDE ARRAY OF RESPONSES BY INDUSTRYGoods exports, Canada, index values; Nov 2019 = 100
Sources: Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada, EDC Economics
8 edc.trade/economic-insightsPeter Hall@PeterGHallXIII
Travel restrictions grounded most international air travel, which has grown slowly to remain about 40% below pre-COVID levels, up noticeably from the trough of -75% in April.
INTERNATIONAL AIR TRAVEL
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
10-Jan-20 9-Feb-20 10-Mar-20 9-Apr-20 9-May-20 8-Jun-20 8-Jul-20 7-Aug-20 6-Sep-20
40% decline
Source: FlightRadar 24
Daily active commercial flightsweekly global average
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ArtsEnterAcc&Food
TexTranWare
Auto&PPrinting
Misc TranFab MT
Prim MTOther
FurnPCP
AdminNMMAero
MiningMisc
CompuElec EQ
PlastMachinery
MgmtPaper
HealthWood
EducProfSciTech
WholsaleInfoCult
FoodConstruction
ChemPAD
UtilitiesAg
Real EstatBev
FinInsRetail
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
GDP: THE PLUNGE AND THE JOURNEY BACK
Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics
← extent of decline extent of recovery →
10 edc.trade/economic-insights@PeterGHallXIII Peter Hall
CONFIDENCE
Canadian jobs in “high-COVID-risk” sectors
Notes: 50+ = positive consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment is weekly, aggregated monthly using last value. June value corresponds to the first week of June.Sources: Nanos Canadian consumer sentiment index, CFIB business barometer
Canadian confidence for businesses has rebounded towards more normal levels, while consumers remain cautious.
20
30
40
50
60
70
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Business
Business and consumer confidence indices (monthly)
Consumer
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Services sector employment, which held up reasonably well in past Canadian recessions,has been hit particularly hard, in areas such as restaurants, retail and recreation.
CANADA’S LABOUR MARKET
In GDP at risk
Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics
-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0
Utilities
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
Agriculture
Professional, Scientific & Technical
Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil & Gas
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Public Administration
Business, Building & Other Support Services
Other Services
Manufacturing
Retail & Wholesale Trade
Construction
Transport and Warehousing
Information, Culture and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Employment Changes, by SectorAugust 2019 to August 2020, Thousands
Goods and services employmentyear-over-year % change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Goods
Services
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Food
Energy
Mining
Chem/plast
Autos/parts
Elec & elec
Machinery
Forestry
Aircraft & other
Consumer
Mining prod
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Changes to export shipments
QUEBEC EXPORTS: COVID IMPACT
Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics
← depth of decline extent of recovery →
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Share of total export shipments, %
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Global Economic Outlook (GDP, annual % change)
2019
Developed countries 1.7
Canada 1.7
United States 2.2
Eurozone 1.3
Germany 0.6
France 1.5
Japan 0.7
Emerging countries 3.7
China 6.1
India 4.2
Brazil 1.1
Mexico -0.3
Total World 2.9
A NORMAL POST-GFC YEAR…
Note: * denotes the forecast period.Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, June 2020
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Global Economic Outlook (GDP, annual % change)
2019 2020*
Developed countries 1.7 -5.5
Canada 1.7 -5.8
United States 2.2 -3.4
Eurozone 1.3 -7.6
Germany 0.6 -5.6
France 1.5 -9.6
Japan 0.7 -5.6
Emerging countries 3.7 -3.6
China 6.1 1.7
India 4.2 -11.7
Brazil 1.1 -6.5
Mexico -0.3 -10.0
Total World 2.9 -4.3
…FOLLOWED BY DISASTER
Note: * denotes the forecast period.Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, June 2020
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Global Economic Outlook (GDP, annual % change)
2019 2020* 2021*
Developed countries 1.7 -5.5 5.7
Canada 1.7 -5.8 5.7
United States 2.2 -3.4 4.9
Eurozone 1.3 -7.6 7.0
Germany 0.6 -5.6 6.3
France 1.5 -9.6 8.9
Japan 0.7 -5.6 4.6
Emerging countries 3.7 -3.6 7.0
China 6.1 1.7 9.0
India 4.2 -11.7 16.1
Brazil 1.1 -6.5 4.0
Mexico -0.3 -10.0 5.9
Total World 2.9 -4.3 6.6
…AND THEN THE REBOUND
Note: * denotes the forecast period.Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, June 2020
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Global Economic OutlookReal GDP Growth (percentage point change)
2020* 2021*
Developed countries -0.1 -0.4
Canada 3.2 -1.5
United States 1.7 -2.0
Eurozone -1.3 0.5
Germany -0.7 0.4
France -1.4 0.6
Japan -1.5 0.5
Emerging countries - -0.3
China 3.3 -1.0
India -8.1 5.0
Brazil 0.6 -0.2
Mexico -2.1 1.1
Total World - -0.3
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
Note: * denotes the forecast period.Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, September 2020 relative to June 2020.
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FINANCIAL MARKETS
Sources: Haver Analytics, EDC Economics; EDC Global Financial Markets.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
EM Bond Spread (bps, rhs) U.S. Corp. Yield: B Rated (%, lhs)
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
S&P 500 Emerging Markets TSX
Equity markets have largely recovered or surpassed their pre-COVID levels; while bond spreads are slowly improving, but remain somewhat elevated.
Global Stock Markets% change since Jan. 1
Global Debt Markets%
18 edc.trade/economic-insights@PeterGHallXIII Peter Hall
CURRENCIES AND INTEREST RATES
Global Economic Outlook 2019 2020* 2021*
Currency Exchange Rate
U.S. dollar USD per CAD 0.75 0.74 0.76
Euro CAD per EUR 1.49 1.53 1.55
Euro USD per EUR 1.12 1.13 1.18
Interest Rates, annual average
Bank of Canada, Overnight Target Rate 1.75 0.56 0.25
U.S. Federal Reserve, Fed Funds Target Rate (Upper limit) 2.14 0.39 0.10
European Central Bank, Policy Interest Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00
Note: * denotes the forecast period.Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, September 2020
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COMMODITY PRICES
Global Economic Outlook 2019 2020* 2021*
Brent Crude Spot, USD / bbl 64.36 42.80 43.95
West Texas Intermediate, USD / bbl 56.99 38.65 41.13
Western Canada Select, USD / bbl 43.30 27.76 31.76
Natural Gas, USD / MMBtu 2.55 1.84 2.12
Gold, USD / troy ounce 1,392 1,806 1,920
Copper, USD / tonne 6,002 5,924 5,989
Note: * denotes the forecast period.Source: EDC Global Economic Outlook, September 2020
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FIVE KEY TAKEAWAYS
Pandemic: containment is critical
Recovery: uneven
More virtual activity, mechanization
Re-shoring, near-shoring, glocalization: trade transformation
Costs, capacity, behaviour: how much change?
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Economic InsightsPeter Hall@PeterGHallXIII
22 edc.trade/economic-insights@PeterGHallXIII Peter Hall
POUR JOINDRE EDC
Diane Belliveau
Directrice régionale, Bureau de Québec
François Houde
Directeur de compte principal, Beauce et centre du Québec
[email protected] / 418-577-7412
edc.trade/economic-insightsPeter Hall@PeterGHallXIII