perspective on us digital media · research and forecasting. • we analyze and forecast: net...
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About MAGNA Intelligence
• MAGNA Intelligence is a division of MAGNA GLOBAL (IPG Mediabrands), focusing on market research and forecasting.
• We analyze and forecast: net advertising revenues, ad costs and inflation, market profiles, media consumption, technology trends (e.g. programmatic).
• Scope: all media categories, 73 countries.
• We invented it: we started adspend forecasting 65 years ago in the US (Bob Coen).
• We are trusted: primary source of Wall Street’s media analysts. Quoted by WSJ, Bloomberg, AdExchanger etc.
Media Economy Reports
Inflation Forecasts Programmatic Report
Ad Spend Forecasts
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US Market Forecast Long Term Trend: 2015 will Barely Catch up with Pre-Recession Highs
Long Term Ad Spend Forecasts (All Media, excl. P&O) (yoy %)
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL US Advertising Forecast, Feb. 2015
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US Market Forecast Long Term Trend: Total Spend will Re-Accelerate in 2015-2016
4.5%
1.7%
4.1%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
-15%
Long Term Ad Spend Forecasts (All Media, excl. P&O) ($bn)
Incl. P&O 2014: +3.0% 2015: +2.7%
-7%
10%
-7%
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL US Advertising Forecast, Feb. 2015
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US Market Forecast Digital Media Now Concentrate all the Growth
Ad Spend Growth by Media Category (excluding P&O)
4.5%
17%
1%
4%
-7%
-1%
4%
1.7%
15%
-3%
0%
-11%
-3%
1%
4.1%
19%
-3%
0%
-11%
-2%
1%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Total (Exc. DM) Total Digital Total TV OOH
2013 2014 2015
Total Traditional Print Radio
Incl. P&O 2014: +3.0% 2015: +2.7%
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL US Advertising Forecast, Feb. 2015
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US Market Forecast Mobile, Social, Video will Continue to Drive US Digital Spend
US Digital Ad Spend: Growth by Format/Platform
16%
47%
7%
0%
39%
19%
53%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Search Video Display Other Social Total Digital Mobile Desktop
2013 2014 2015
76%
“Display” here includes banners, rich media. Excludes video and social formats.
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL US Advertising Forecast, Feb. 2015
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US Market Forecast Mobile Digital Ad Revenues will Catch-up with Desktop by 2018
US Digital Media – Mobile vs Desktop ($b)
3 7 12
19 26
33 42
52
33 36
37
40
42
43
43
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile Desktop
$49bn
$95bn
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL US Advertising Forecast, Feb. 2015
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US Market Forecast 85% of Display-Related Inventory will be Traded Programmatically by 2019
US Programmatic Forecasts
24% 30%
36% 41%
46% 52% 56%
25%
32%
33% 33%
32% 30%
30% 51%
37% 31%
26% 22% 17% 15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RTB Non-RTB Traditional
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL Programmatic Report, October 2014.
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US Market Forecast Acceleration in the Shift to Digital: 2014 a Tipping Point?
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Digital National TV Other
Market Share Gains/Losses by Media Category (% vs. previous year)
Reading: in 2011, print, radio and OOH media combined lost 3.5% in market share compared to the previous year, while digital media captured an extra 3% and television captured 0.5%.
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL US Advertising Forecast, Feb. 2015
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49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Television
Digital Print
Other
US Market Forecast Digital Media to Become #1 Media Category in 2016
Advertising Revenue by Media Category: LT Forecast ($bn)
68
95
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL US Advertising Forecast, Feb. 2015
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Global Forecast Digital Media is Already Bigger than TV in 14 Other Markets
40%
28% 28%
37%
22%
18%
30%
46%
39% 41%
31%
44%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
US UK Netherlands China Germany Denmark
TV Digital (incl. online video)
Share of Total Advertising Revenues in Selected Markets (2014)
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL Global Advertising Forecast, Feb. 2015
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Global Forecast Digital Media is Already Bigger than TV in 14 Other Markets
Share of total advertising Revenues in Selected Markets (2014)
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Global Forecast Search will Remain the #1 Format but Video & Social will Grow Faster
Global Digital Ad spend by Format ($b)
61 70 80 90 99 108 118
28 29
31 32
33 34
35
10 17
23 29
36 43
51
8
11
15
20
25
32
39
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Search Display Social Video Other
$142bn
$256bn
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL Global Advertising Forecast, Dec. 2014