perspective nr. 2 - 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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humanitarian and interational affairs magazine #2/2011
special report
Quest for Paradise the American dream yet again.
op-ed
Rajendra Pachauri head of the UNs climate change panel onthe humanitarian costs of climate change.
In 2010, more people were displacedby climate-related disasters than by
wars and armed conficts .
profile
Kristalina Georgieva a popular commissioner
Time To Run
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PersPectiveNO. 02.2011
Content 0211PERSPEcTIVE a humaNITaRIaN aNd INTERNaTIONal affaIRS magazINE
06OP-ED
Rajendra K. Pauchauri, Chair-
man o the UNs Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate
Change sums up the panels
conclusions with regard to how
humanitarian issues may be in-
fuenced by climate change.
30PrOfilE:Kristalina GEOrGiEva
Kristalina Georgieva was ap-
pointed an EU commissioner
almost by accident, but she
has won acclaim in her posi-
tion as head of the European
Unions department for hu-
manitarian aid and crisis re-
sponse.
50HOmE-GrOwn DEmOcracy
Somaliland unilateraly de-
clared itsself independent 20
years ago. No country has, ho-
wever, recognised Somaliland
as a sovereign state.
46BlacK marKEt fOr
Human OrGans
In recent years, a large black
marked for human organs has
arisen. Throughout the world,poor people are willing to
have their organs removed in
return for money.
34tHE QuEst fOr ParaDisE
For many Mexicans the US re-
presents their only hope of a
better future, and every day
thousands of Mexicans at-
tempt to enter the US illegally.
10DisPlacED By tHE wEatHErIn 2010, 42 million people were displaced by natural disasters. This number is
set to increase with climate change.Konica Minolta Business Solutions Norway AS Nydalsveien 26 0484 Oslo www.konicaminolta.no
Konica Minolta products present concepts and features
which make it easy to consider the environment.
Eco-friendly innovations can be found throughout the entire
lifecycle of every device, including strict production standards,
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our procurement policy are part of the Konica Minolta mission
to save resources and create new value.
Theres only one world. We know it takes a great deal of
effort to keep it a friendly pl ace.
It takes the right ideasto shelter our planet.
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PersPective is on sale in the ollowingcountries: Australia, Austria, Belgium,Canada, Cyprus, France, Italy, Japan,Luxembourg, the Netherlands, NewZealand, Portugal, Spain, the UK, andthe USA.
editor in chief Erik Giercksky
editorHarriet Rudd
Production manager Erik Tresse
Writers and contributors
Ola G. Alteren, Christopher Eads,Gunhild Forselv, Grete Gaulin, LindaJeanette Gresslien, Kaja Haldorsen,Roald Hvring, Ragnhild M.W. Jordheim,Vikram Kolmannskog, RajendraPachauri, ystein Mikalsen, Otto vonMnchow, Elisabeth Rasmusson, Andr
Savik, Astrid Sehl, Erik R. Selmer, LisettaTrebbi, Birgit Vartdal, Rol Vestvik, TonjeM.Viken, Adam Zyglis and Tor vreb
circulation services
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circulation15,000
cover Photo Scanpix
Publisher
The Norwegian Reugee Council
Questions regarding the nrc should
be directed to:
The views expressed in Perspectivedo not necessarily refect the viewso the NRC
norWegian refugee council
Box 6758 St. Olavs Plass0130 OsloNorway
The Norwegian Refugee Council(NRC) is an independent, humanitariannon-governmental organisation whichprovides assistance, protection anddurable solutions to refugees and in-ternally displaced persons worldwide.
over the last years humanitarian or-
ganisations all around the world have
witnessed how the changing climate
s increasing the burden o their work. The
Norwegian Reugee Council predominantly
works or reugees rom armed conict, but
we are experiencing that climate change is
adversely aecting the people we try to help.
A dramatic example is the 2010 Pakistan
oods, which displaced 11 million people,
among them 30,000 Aghans living in a re-
ugee camp in one o the regions most seri-
ously devastated by the oods. Their camp
was swept away by t he oodwater. Without
relatives in the immediate area there was
ittle they could do to help themselves and
being aliens - they were the last to receive
government aid. As a result this group b eca-
me extremely vulnerable.
It is highly probable that the number o
natural disasters and, in consequence, the
numbers o displaced people, will continue
to rise as the planet becomes warmer, and
weather conditions deteriorate as a result
o the changing climate. Ofering assistance,
support and protection to such groups o
displaced people will, thereore, constitute
a large part o humanitarian work in the de-
cades to come.
PeoPle Without Protection
In contrast to reugees rom war, those dis-
placed by climate change are oered little or
no protection in international conventions
or by international law. We know ull well
that such specifc guarantees are not alwaysenough to provide actual protection but,
nothing else, they oer a legal, moral, and
normative ramework or demanding, or ar-
guing or, necessary protection.
The NRC is thereore concerned about the
uture. We eel that this so-called protecti-
on gap should be given ar more attention
than is currently the case. That is why we
have decided to dedicate a large section o
this issue o Perspective to the humanitari-
an aspects o climate change.
resPonsibility
The UN High Commissioner or Reugees is
very clear that something has to be done to
improve protection or those displaced by
climate change. He does not, however, rec-
ommend re-negotiating the Reugee Conven-
tion in order to include this group. He is wor-
ried that the end result would not be more
protection or those in need but, conversely,
reduced protection or reugees rom war.
This is, perhaps, hardly surprising in light o
the recent hostile reaction in some parts o
Europe to the inux o people seeking secu-
rity in the wake o the Arab uprisings.
According to the Old Testament, God,
addressing Cain, asked, Where is your bro-
ther, Abel? and Cain replied, How should
I know? Am I my brothers keeper? Cain had
killed his brother, and buried him, so, Cain,
hoping to divert Gods attention, attempted
to do so by rejecting the idea that he could
be expected to watch over Abel.
Western prosperity could not have been
achieved without extensive green-house gas
emissions: now the Developing World is su-
ering rom those negative consequences o
Western economic expansion. We cannot
ignore the misery that we have been instru-
mental in causing by reusing to ace up to
our obligations to provide help or those in
need. n
nn In contrast to refugees from war,those displaced by climate change are of-fered little or no protection in internationalconventions or by international law.
editorial
Am I My BrothersKeeper
F
Take an international mastersdegree in International Studieor Peace and Conflict Studies
One semester in Norway, courses developed and taught by PRIO
(Peace Research Institute Oslo). Remaining semesters taught at Stellenbo
University, South Africa or The Australian National University, Canberra.
For more information:
www.prio.no/education
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The major ndings rom the report show that i
global temperatures increase as projected, this
will trigger a range o humanitarian challenges
and adverse impacts on water, ecosystems, ood pro-
duction, coastal areas, and human health.
Since 1975 the incidence o extreme high sea level
and the requency o heavy precipitation events have
increased. Available research points towards a signi-
cant uture increase in heavy rainall events in many
regions, including some in which the mean rainall is
projected to decrease. The resulting increased ood
risk poses challenges to society, physical inrastruc-
ture and water quality. It is likely that up to 20 percent
o the world population will live in areas where river
ood potential could increase by the 2080s. Increases
in the requency and severity o oods and droughts
are projected to adversely afect sustainable develop-
ment. In coastal areas sea level rise will exacerbate wa-
ter resource constraints due to increased salinisation
o groundwater supplies. Overall, hundreds o millions
o people would be exposed to increased water stress.
FOOD PRODUCTION
Climate change and variability would have serious
implications or global ood security and millions o
armers dependent on rained agriculture. Food pro-
duction and the livelihoods o armers could ace se-
rious issues as a result o complex, localized negative
impacts on smallholders, subsistence armers and
shing communities. There would be tendencies or
cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes and to
increase at mid to high latitudes at a 1C global mean
annual temperature change relative to the end o the
last century. However, in low latitudes at temperature
increases o above 3.5 C productivity o all cereals is
projected to decrease.
HUMAN HEALTH
Climate change would have signicant impacts on
human health as well. There would be an increasing
burden on communities rom malnutrition, diarrheal,
cardio-respiratory and inectious diseases. There
would also be increased morbidity and mortality rom
heat waves, oods and droughts. At temperature in-
creases o even up to 2 degrees C elsius it is projected
that a changed distribution o some disease vectors
might occur.
Small Island states and low lying coastal areas
are particularly vulnerable to the impacts o cli-
mate change. Projected sea level rise could ood the
homes o millions o people living in the low lying ar-
eas o South, Southeast and East Asia. It will exacer-
bate coastal inundation, storm surges, erosion, and
other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital inra-
structure, settlements and acilities that support the
livelihood o island communities.
MIGRATION
The Second Assessment report (SAR) o the IPCC dis-
cussed population movement in response to envi-
ronmental impacts and the attraction o large urban
areas. Human populations show signifcant tenden-
cies to adapt to inter- annual variability o climate via
migration, although migration may be the last o a
complex set o coping strategies. In some cases, im-
migration is more permanent and does not involve
large areas. For example, ater three successive ty-
phoons hit Tau Island in American Samoa in 1987,
1990 and 1991, about one third o the population
abandoned their homes and moved to Pago Pago on
Tutuila Island, putting more population pressure on
the limited economic opportunities and services o
that island.
ETHICS AND EQUITY
The AR4 concludes that neither adaptation nor mitiga-
tion alone can avoid all climate change impacts; how-
ever, they can complement each other and together
signicantly reduce the risks o climate change. Miti-
gation eforts and investments over the next 2 to 3
decades will have a large impact on opportunities to
achieve lower stabilization levels. A wide array o ad-
aptation options is available, but more extensive adap-
tation than is currently occurring is required to reducevulnerability to climate change.
Adaptive capacity is intimately connected to social
and economic development, but it is not evenly dis-
tributed across and within societies. Unortunately,
several communities and locations most vulnerable
to the impacts o climate change are the ones which
would nd their capacity to adapt most inadequate
to deal with projected changes. This raises several is-
sues o ethics and equity, which would be explored in
detail in the Fith Assessment Report o the IPC C.n
OP-ED
The Humanitarian Impact Of Climate Change
RAjENDRA K PACHAURI
is Chairman o the In-ergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change(IPCC), a scientifc
body established bythe United Nations
Environment Programand the World Meteor-ological Organization.
The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) has, in much greater depth than was possible in previous assessments,dealt with humanitarian issues related to climate change.
nnIt is likely that
up to 20 percent o the world
population willlive in areas
where river-foodpotential couldincrease by the
2080s.
ILLUSTRATION bY ADAM ZYGLIS: Zyglis is the sta cartoonist or The Bualo News. His cartoons are internationally syndicated and have appeared in mpublications around the world, including The Washington Post, USA Today, The New York Times and Los Angeles Times.
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uganda
CraCk-downSince mid-April, politicians and activ-
ists have staged a series of walk-to-
work marches in order to demon-
strate against rising fuel and food
prices. Police have used violent
measures to try to stop the protests.
Several people have been killed, and
opposition leaders have been arrest-
ed. On 10 May police sprayed dem-
onstrators with a pink liquid in an at-
tempt to stop a mass-rally.
On 12 May, in the midst o the pro-
tests, Ugandan President, Museveni,
was inaugurated as President or his
ourth presidential term. Museveni
has ruled Uganda since 1986, and
was re-elected President in February
2011 by a clear margin.
Several opposition leaders have
taken active parts in the protests, in-
cluding the main opposition leader,
Dr. Besigye. Besigye claims the Feb-
ruary elections were rigged. The
President, on the other hand, has ac-
cused Besigye o exploiting the situ-
ation and trying to start Egyptian-
style protests in Uganda.
Museveni was or years credit-
ed with introducing democratic re-
orm and improving human rights in
Uganda but, o late, has been criti-
cised or resorting to anti-democratic
methods.
Syria
rising death toll
There are continual reports of
security forces killing protest-
ers in Syria. By the end of May,
almost 1,000 people had been
killed in the ongoing unrest.
Since 15 March, protesters
have been taking to the streets
demanding democratic re-
form and an end to the Baath
partys monopoly of power.
In April, Syrian President,
Bashar al-Assad, lifted the
emergency law that has been
in force since 1963, but he hasdone little else to introduce
democratic reform. Interna-
tional pressure is mounting on
al-Assad, either to initiate re-
forms or resign. In late April,
the US imposed targeted sanc-
tions against members of the
regime. Both the US and the
most important regional pow-
er, Turkey, have warned Assad
that his time is running out.
yemen
deteriorating seCurityThe protests in Yemen have been in processsince January. The regime has cracked down on
protesters, killing some 180 people. The Gul
States have brokered several deals in which
President Ali Abdullah Saleh has agreed to step
down, but the President has always withdrawn
rom the agreement at the last moment.
The security situation outside o the capi-
tal has also deteriorated and - according to the
International Crisis Group - an armed group
linked to Al Qaida has assumed control over an
area in the south.
Libya
stalemateAter months o fghting, the battle
or power seems to have reached a
stalemate. A number o Gaddafs
ner circle have deected, and sever
members o his amily have been
killed. Despite these losses, and tw
months o NATO bombing, opposi-
tion troops appear unable to achie
a military breakthrough.
At the end o May the Internation
Criminal Courts (ICC) Chie Prosec
tor requested the issue o a warran
or the arrest o Colonel Gaddaf.
Gaddaf is accused o personally ha
ing ordered attacks on unarmed ci
vilians. There is hope that a warran
will urther isolate Gaddaf. Howev
er, questions have been voiced as t
why only Gaddaf is being targeted
while the leaders o Syria and Yem
go ree. Such a warrant must be ap
proved by three judges o the court
beore coming into orce.
u: crack down on walk-to-work marches
s: security orces shoot demonstrators
lb: Gaddaf accused o war crimes
y: unresolved
h sp1
3
2
4
99,1724,881 7,727 9,6025,069 8,645
un TrOOPS Were engaged in
PeaCe-KeePing miSSiOnS in 2010.
Th num of UN toop nd y 2,4 pnt ompd wth 2009.
SOurCe: GlObal Peace OPeraTiONs, UN (Unm)
2,4%increasein
thenumber ofun troopsde-ployed in 2010.
NIGERIA
INDIA
EGYPT
BANGLADESHPAKISTAN
top five contributors to un peace-keeping forces:
1
3
2
4
PhOTO:scanpix
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Climate Change and displaCement
42 million people weredisplaced by naturaldisasters last year. 90 percent o them were victimso so-called climate-relateddisasters.
The numbers o displaced by natural disas-
ters now exceeds, by ar, the numbers dis-
placed by war, armed conict and political
persecution. In 2010, the estimated number
o reugees stood at 43 million, but only a
raction o these were newly displaced, many
are victims o protracted crises and have
been reugees or years, or even decades.
Natural-disaster displacement varies great-
y rom one year to the next but, overall, the
number seems to be increasing. This is per-
haps not surprising as, over the last 20 years,
the number o natural disasters has doubled,
rom approximately 200 to more than 400
per year. All over the world climate change is
orcing people to ee their homes.
The poor are worst aected, but people liv-
ng in the developed world are suering the
consequences as well. In 2005, Hurricane
Katrina ooded 80 per cent o New Orleans,
displacing 800,000 people. In April and May
2011, violent storms struck the US, attening
houses and killing several hundred people.
With all probability the numbers o those
killed, injured and displaced by extreme
weather will only continue to increase as hu-
man-induced climate change comes into ull
orce. It is to be expected, that in the uture,
more and more people may - or longer or
shorter periods- be orced to ee their homes,
to escape the violence and turmoil o the in-
clement weather.
These developments are causing great
concern among humanitarian agencies.
The high number o displaced are putting an
enormous strain on resources, but perhaps
a more undamental worry is while reugees
rom war and persecution are protected by
nternational conventions, it is highly un-
clear what laws and policies protect those
displaced by climate change.
Time To Run
DRoughT anDconflicT: thepastoralists inSouth Sudanvictims o botdrought and aconict.Experts disagwhether or no
there is a cleacorrelation between warmeclimate and increased levelconict. Therno doubt, howthat within SoSudan, as in oparts o Aricmany local coicts are triggby disagreemover access tscarce watergrazing resou
all PhoToS bRune eRakeREraker worksin classical Epean documetary photograbordering on photography.the past 20 yhe has travelltroubled regioin Asia, AricaLatin America
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Climate Change and displaCement
The wilder weather is accelerating human-
itarian problems, and agencies at the ront
line o disaster response are worried.
Through our work we see that climate
change has eects here and now, says
Lisetta Trebbi, Climate Adviser at theNorwegian Reugee Council.
She gives examples rom countries
where the NRC is active: droughts and
oods in Kenya and Somalia triggering
competition or resources, in addition to
increasing the spread o cholera and diar-
rhoea. Land erosion in Burundi. Cyclone
Nargis, devastating homes in Myanmar.
I could go on and on. People are having
problems coping, and so are the humani-
tarian agencies, she says.
millionS DiSPlaceDThe projections or the number o peo-
ple who will migrate or be displaced as a
result o climate change vary greatly. For
example, the last report rom the Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) quotes estimates that 150 million
people may be displaced by 2050. In the
Stern Review o the Economics o Climate
Change, the estimated number is 200 mil-
lion displaced persons by 2050.
These numbers are subject to a high
degree o uncertainty, primarily because
there has been no baseline inormation on
current levels o disaster-related displace-
ment, explains Trebbi. To address this
gap the Internal Displacement Monitoring
Centre (IDMC) started monitoring dis
ter-related displacement on a yearly b
Last year alone, 42 million people we
displaced by sudden-onset natural dis
ters. 90 per cent o them were victims
climate-related disasters, such as stor
and oods.
The numbers displaced by natural
asters are oten high. Experts, howev
er, agree that much o the sudden-on
disaster displacement is temporary a
victims seldom move more than a sh
distance. The eectiveness and succe
o response, recovery and rehabilitat
eorts largely determine or how lon
people are displaced. For example, i
Philippines people may remain displ
Escaping Wild
WeatherIn 2010, Russia suered its hottest summer in more than a 100 years, bringingabout droughts and sparking o wildfres. Recently the US state o Alabama wasravaged by tornados.Worldwide, natural disasters are becoming the new norm,but nowhere is the reality harsher than in the developing world.by: Vikram Kolmannskog
moRning in Dacca: Bangladesh is one o the countries that has been hardest hit by natural disasters and climate change. They are at risk rom both sudden-onset disasters, such as cyclones and oods, and slow-onset disasters, caused by rising sea-levels and melting ice in the Himalaya s.
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Climate Change and displaCementor months or years as a result o a disas-
ter that would displace people or only a
ew days, or weeks in Japan.
It is oten a question o ability and
will, explains Trebbi. How quickly can
we respond to a disaster by evacuating
people, and ullling their basic needs
or such things as ood and shelter?
How quickly can we rebuild houses and
homes? And, importantly, o what qual-
ty are the rebuilt houses? For example,
n Myanmar, we are now trying to build
houses that are more resistant to storms
and extreme weather.
many cauSeS of migRaTionThere is rarely a simple and direct corre-
ation between natural disasters and hu-
man mobility. This becomes particularly
clear in slow-onset disasters such as rising
sea-levels or drought. People have many
reasons or moving. These are oten inex-
tricably linked.
Environmental migration is part o
arger migration dynamics, explains Dr.
Francois Gemenne at the Institute o Sus-
tainable Development and International
Relations at Sciences Po in Paris. While
conducting research on the small island
state o Tuvalu, he ound that people
gave many reasons or leaving, including
amily, school, work and uncertainties
about the uture o the islands when the
sea levels rise. Even the political agree-
ment to limit the rise in global average
temperature to 2 degrees Celsius, endan-
gers the existence o some o these small
island states.
In slow-onset disasters the line be-
tween migration and displacement be-
comes particularly blurred. Dr. Gemenne
and most other social scientists recog-
nise that the degree o choice can be con-
sidered along a continuum. At the early
stages o sea-level rise or o drought,
movement is requently considered as
voluntary migration. It is one o several
options. In many parts o the world, cy-
clical and seasonal migration to obtain an
additional income is normal during di-
cult times. It is now increasingly recog-
nised that migration can also be an adap-
tation strategy, says Dr. Gemenne.
While it is hard to determine when
the movement becomes orced displace-
ment, it nevertheless remains impor-
tant, says Trebbi at the NRC. The rea-
son is that migrants are considered to
have dierent needs and are treated di-
erently in law and policy rom [involun-
tary] displaced people.
An average o more than 75 mil-
lion people were annually aected by
droughts between 2000 and 2009, but
the problems o ascribing causation and
determining the element o orce, means
that no global estimates or displacement
are available. Another challenge is that
even a relatively small number o dis-
placed people, might be a proportionate-
ly large part o the population o some o
the island nations. With less than 12, 000
inhabitants, migration and displacement
rom Tuvalu could in itsel t hreaten the
existence o the nation.
noWheRe To goIn one way or another, all countries will
be aected by climate change, but some
will be more immediately and particu-
larly aected. The IPCC highlights the
Small Island Developing States, Arica,
mega-deltas such as the Ganges-Brahma-
putra delta in Bangladesh, and the Polar
Regions.
Migration and displacement means
that eects in one country may inuence
other countries and regions as well, says
Trebbi. However, I am very critical o
those drawing a picture o oods o reu-
gees arriving in Western countries.
Migration and displacement may be
internal or cross-border, or temporary
or permanent movements, but experts
agree that it is likely that the majority
o people will remain within their own
country now and in the near uture. They
also agree that it is important not to over-
look those who do not move during dis-
asters. While some remain because they
are, at least to some degree, able to cope,
others may in act be orced to stay. O-
ten the most vulnerable people do not
have the resources to move, explains Dr.
Gemenne.
Clearly, climate change has many e-
ects on human movement. The nature
and the extent o movements will be
greatly determined by policy respons-
es, not only by environmental chang-
es, says Dr. Gemenne. These policy
responses include mitigation policies
to deal with the reduction o climate
change; adaptation policies so people
can cope with environmental changes,
and o course migration and displace-
ment policies.
The WhoS Who of climaTe changenaTional goveRnmenTS perorm their mostimportant task at the negotiations arena.Ultimately, national governments bear the re-sponsibility or reaching agreements to allthese questions and to take political actionbeore the consequences o climate changebecome too catastrophic.National governments in highly aected areasalso play an important role defning nationalneeds or adaptation measures through theirNational adaptation programmes o action(NAPAs). National policies or reducing emis-sions, integration o climate change adapta-
tion into development policies and initiativesor mitigation in aected areas, are other ar-eas o responsibility o the national g overn-ments.
The uniTeD naTionS is the keeper o the ne-gotiation process. The Climate Change Secre-tariat, on one hand, drives the negotiations bymaking all the practical arrangement or thevarious meetings, preparing the ofcial docu-ments, and coordinating with the secretariato other relevant international bodies and con-ventions. On the other hand, the secretariatis monitoring the implementation o commit-
ments under the Convention and the Protocol.The secretariat is situated in Bonn and em-ploys some 400 sta.
The civil SocieTy, United Nation programmesand the international multilateral system play acrucial role trough thousands o organizationsand individuals, oering opinions, suggestions,and both political and scientifc/technical advice.These actors come together, or individually, tothe negotiation arena, where they are allowedaccess to the negotiators and where they canshare their views and expertise without having
any ormal role at the negotiation table.Outside the negotiating arena, the climatechange issue has been promoted as the onedefning development issue o our time. Thishas led to all development actors scramblingto fnd ways where their contribution canmake a dierence on the ground. This agendais dominated by UN agencies, multilateralfnance institutions (notably the World Bankand regional development banks), large In-ternational Non- Governmental Organi-sations and local civil society organisations.Adaptation- and local mitigation programmesorm important parts o this work.
ecuaDoR:
A Two-yeaDisaster
Most migration in Ecuado
used to be been internal.
Heads o households have
ditionally ound short-term
employment in the cities o
other wealthy regions o th
country in order to earn a
ditional income. Since the
1990s this has changed.
The El Nio event o 199
1998 was unusual in both
strength and duration.
The El Nio Southern Os
cillation (ENSO) is a cyclica
variation o the atmospher
general circulation that lea
to droughts or oods. It ha
curred or millennia and th
ect o the climate change i
certain, but there are conc
that extreme events associ
with it might become more
quent and more intense.
Agriculture is an impor
part o the Ecuadorian ec
omy, and the 1997-1998 o
damaged more than 100,0
hectares o rst-class agri
tural areas. Roads, telecom
munication and water sup
networks were also heavil
damaged, or, in most case
totally destroyed. Thousa
lost their properties and j
In addition, there was a w
er economic crisis related
to a collapse o internatio
al oil prices. This combina
tion weakened the Ecuad
an economy, and there we
ewer opportunities or teporary internal movemen
Migration abroad increase
dramatically with Spain a
the EU as the main destin
tions.
main SouRce: Alvarez Gila, O.,Lpez de Maturana Diguez, VUgalde Zaratiegui, A., 2009. Edor. EACH-FOR.
alaSka:
Ice Melting Under their FeetIn Alaska, temperatures have increased by
between 2 and 3,5 degrees Celsius over a
period o 35 years, and sea ice is decreas-
ing and permarost is thawing. These
changes requently lead to erosion. As a
result several indigenous communities
have been orced to relocate. Environ-
mental studies indicate that they might
submerge them within the next 15 years.
One o the communities that have been
orced to relocate is Shishmare. Tony A.
Weyiouanna, one o the inhabitants o the
island says that since the time o his grand-
ather the water level has increasingly
risen, seasons have become shorter, sum-
mers and winters warmer, with a result-
ing thinning o the ice. The loss o land
through erosive action with an increasing
risk to property and lives has caused a dan-
gerous situation, he explains.
The only viable solution is to relocate
the island community to a nearby main-
land location that has access to the sea,
thereby making possible the continued
subsistence liestyle o the community,
preserving the culture and integrity o the
community.
The 2006 Alaska Village Erosion Tech-
nical Assistance Program established by
the US Congress evaluated the dierent
costs associated with erosion control as
opposed to relocation. It also identied a
number o governance issues that need to
be addressed, including establishing a gov-
ernment agency with authority to relocate
communities, and designated unding and
criteria or choosing relocation sites.
The humanitarian crisis in Alaska clearly
demonstrates the need to create clear relo-
cation principles and guidelines based on
human rights.
main SouRce: Bronen, R., 2008. Alaskan com-munities rights and resilience. Forced MigrationReview 31, pp. 30-32.
The loss of
land through ero-sive action with anincreasing risk toproperty and liveshave caused a dan-gerous situation.
Tony a. Weyiouanna,resident o Shishmare
PeoPle of The aRcTic: indigenous way o lie in the Arctic is is seriously threatened by clim ate change.
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Climate Change and displaCement
No Guaranteeo Protectionby: Vikram Kolmannskog
The reugee denition o the 1951 Reu-
gee Convention does not mention climate
change or natural disasters. A reugee is
someone outside o his or her country o
nationality who is unable or unwilling to
return because o a well-ounded ear o
persecution on account o race, religion,
nationality, membership in a particular
social group, or political opinions.
Some advocates have suggested amend-
ng the Reugee Convention denition,
but there are major actors opposed to
this. The convention was drated ater the
Second World War to deal with the reu-
gee crises in Europe. Today, there is a di-
erent situation and political climate or
reugees. According to their 2009 policy
paper, the United Nations High Commis-
sioner or Reugees (UNHCR) considers
that any initiative to modiy this deni-
tion would risk a renegotiation o the 1951
Reugee Convention, which [] could re-
sult in a lowering o protection standards
or reugees and even undermine the in-
ternational reugee protection regime al-
together.
n neeD of PRoTecTionHowever, the agency is very clear thatsomething must be done. This is not an
over the horizon' issue. There is a grow-
ng consensus that the eects o climate
change are already being elt, says Dr.
Volker Trk, Director o International
Protection at UNHCR. One o UNHCRs
mandated responsibilities is to assist in
the progressive development o inter-
national law related to orced displace-
ment. We eel that it is our responsibility
to draw attention to this legal gap and to
spur reection about how to ll it.
National legislation, policies and insti-
tutions are absolutely central. Regional
cooperation rameworks should buttress
action at national level. There is also a
need to develop a global guiding rame-
work or instrument, recommends Dr.
Trk. To tackle the myriad o problems
created by climate change, international
solidarity and responsibility-sharing will
be needed more than ever.
In order to encourage high-level inter-
national discussion on displacement and
climate change, the UNHCR is both initi-
ating and participating in several discus-
sions on the topic, one o which will take
place at the Nansen Conerence on Cli-
mate Change and Displacement in Oslo
in early June.
The Nansen conerence is hosted by
the Norwegian Minister o Development
and Environment and the Minister o
Foreign Aairs. The Foreign Minister,
Jonas Gahr Stre, supports Dr. Trks ar-
gument: There are weighty humanitar-
ian reasons or establishing a protective
ramework or external displacement
resulting rom sudden-onset natural dis-
asters, including where climate change
plays a part. They are not reugees in the
legal sense, but they are nonetheless in
need o help.
Some aRe RefugeeSSome commentators and scholars have
been quick to conclude that those dis-
placed in the context o climate change are
not reugees according to the Convention.
This is a too hasty conclusion, claims
Lisetta Trebbi, Climate Adviser o the Nor-
wegian Reugee Council. We believe that
a dynamic and contextual interpretation
o existing law shows that some people
are, indeed, reugees. This is important
because we dont know how much more
we can hope to achieve in terms o protec-
tion or this group o people.
In their 2009 policy paper on climate
change and natural disasters, the UN-
HCR claries that some situations are
covered by the Convention, including
when the victims o natural disasters
ee rom their homeland because theirGovernment has consciously withheld
or obstructed assistance in order to pun-
ish or marginalize them on one o the
ve grounds set out in the reugee deni-
tion. For example, it is not unusual or a
member o a marginalised ethnic group,
or a political dissident, to be denied cru-
cial assistance during a disaster. I they
ee the country as a consequence, they
could possibly be considered as reugees.
In addition, there are oten several rea-
We could be moving toward a future where the majority of displacedpeople have been forced to leave their homes,without any right toreceive protection and support.
RefugeeS: th
Inuits, in Greeland, will perhnumber amonfrst people wwill have to recate as a resuclimate changIt is unclear wlegal rights otection and suport people dplaced by climchange can cunder internaal law.
This is not an'over the horizon' is-
sue. There is a grow-ing consensus thatthe eects o climatechange are alreadybeing elt.DR. volkeR TRk, Director o International Pro-tection at UNHCR
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Climate Change and displaCementsons why a person moves. In the case o
Somalia, several reugees mention both
persecution and drought as reasons or
eaving. I drought and conict coincide,
we will not split hairs, inorms a senior
UNHCR sta member, responsible or the
reugees in Kenya. Moreover, in the So-
mali case, many countries recognise the
displaced persons as prima acie reugees
because o the severe humanitarian cri-
sis in the country. UNHCR also claries
that there are regional reugee conven-
tions with broader denitions that may
more easily include those eeing natural
disasters. Clearly, the situation or those
displaced is not as black or white as some
portray it.
SPecial STaTuSHowever, there is still agreement that
many, i not most, o the cross-border dis-
placed will not be considered reugees,
and there have been calls to strengthen
their protection.
But why should we give special pro-
tection to them as opposed to others in
need, such as those eeing general pov-
erty? It may be arbitrary to single out the
environment as a driver o migration and
displacement, rather than ocusing on the
needs and rights o all those who are or-
cibly displaced, admits Proessor Jane
McAdam, o the University o New South
Wales, Australia. However, I also ap-
preciate that getting states to agree to ex-
panded protection obligations towards a
wider class o orced migrant, would con-
stitute an enormous political challenge.
Some experts highlight that we have
a special responsibility towards those
displaced because o the environmental
disruptions that we have induced. Oth-
ers go urther and argue that we should
have special conventions or those dis-
placed by the eects o climate change,
separating them rom the wider group
o environmentally displaced persons.
Proessor McAdam and most other hu-manitarian experts disagree with this ap-
proach insoar as it relates to rights or
the migrant or displaced person. From
the viewpoint o the migrant or displaced
person, it doesnt make any dierence
From the viewpoint o the migrant or displaced person, it doesnt make any diference whether the environmental disruption is climate - related or not.RofeSSoR Jane mcaDan
ScenaRioS foR The fuTuRe: so far, poor and undeveloped countries are those that have suffered the most as a result rom natural disasters and climate change, but in the course o the past year natural di saster has also caused enormous damage and humansuering in the industrialised world. By the end o May 2011, the hurricanes had brought about at least 300 deaths in the US.
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Climate Change and displaCement
Tuvalu:Sinking Island StateSinking Island States are oten used
as an example o how difcult a per-
sons legal position may become as a re-
sult o climate change. These states are
threatened by sea-level rises, and there
is a danger that they may become in-
habitable, leaving their citizens literally
stateless. Whether it would in act also
render them stateless in a legal sense is
not clear.
With an average elevation o one me-
ter above sea level, the island nation
o Tuvalu is extremely vulnerable to
sea-level rise. There are also other en-
vironmental problems relating to wa-
ter shortage, waste disposal, and over-
population. Frequent saltwater oodingand accelerated coastal erosion are con-
sequences o a changing environment.
Some people still believe, that with
international support, it will be pos-
sible or the country to survive. How-
ever, more and more people are leav-
ing or other countries out o ear that
the islands will be ooded. I dont
want to wake up one morning with the
island washed away I preer to leave
now, beore I have no other choice,
says Nooaloa Petero. There are ap
proximately 3,000 Tuvaluans in Ne
Zealand. Uncertainties about the u
rather than immediate environmen
concerns, seem to be the main migr
tion drivers. In most cases, environ
tal actors are mixed with economi
social actors, such as amily, schoo
work opportunities.
Contrary to rumours in the medi
there is no environmental migratio
agreement between Tuvalu and Ne
Zealand. The Pacic Access Catego
a scheme that allows an annual qu
o Pacic islanders to settle in New
land. They are required to meet str
gent conditions, including a good cmand o English and the oer o a j
A seasonal migration scheme has a
been implemented to allow the isla
ers to come and work, predominan
ly in the agricultural sector, or six
nine months. Neither New Zealand
Australia has planned or any proa
migration policy.
main SouRce: Gemenne, F., and Shen, S.,2009. Tuvalu and New Zealand. EACH-F
banglaDeSh:Between sea-level rise andmelting glaciersby: Vikram Kolmannskog
As citizens o a delta-nation, Bangla-
deshis are used to living with and ben-
efting rom ooding, but now climate
change is contributing to an increase
in oods, riverbank erosion, cyclones
and other disasters. The country is
aced with sea-level rise rom one side
and melting Himalayan glaciers aect-
ing the rivers on the other side. A sea-
level rise o one metre would threaten
to put 50 per cent o the country un-
der water.
A high number o Bangladeshis have
already lost their livelihoods as a re-
sult o natural disasters, and have been
orced to look or work elsewhere. To-
day, most Bangladeshi migration is in-
ternal, and predominantly rom rural
to urban areas. In some cases heads o
households migrate temporarily to nd
work, in others, entire amilies move
and settle permanently.
Many people also settle illegally in In-
dia in search o a better lie. Oten they
end up in prostitution, or in sweatshops
under slave-like conditions, or are de-
ported. The massive movements that
are likely in 20 or 30 years could also
pose a threat to regional security. Oth-
ers do not have the means to migrate.
Trafcking, particularly o women and
children, has been reinorced by recent
disasters and increased vulnerability.
Bangladesh is oten highlighted as a
country that has managed to reduce
casualties and economic loss by good
disaster-risk management. The ofcialdeath tolls in recent disasters are ar
lower than in previous ones. One im-
portant measure has been the building
ostorm shelters in villages at risk. This
saves human lives, and livestock, and
resources. As a result people in these
villages eel less and are thereore less
inclined to move.
main SouRce: Poncelet, A., 2009, Bangladesh.EACH-FOR.
whether the environmental disruption is
climate-related or not.
One approach that has been discussed
s expanding so-called complementa-
ry protection. Complementary orms o
protection have been granted to people
who do not t so well into the reugee
denition, but nonetheless are consid-
ered to be in need o protection. Oten
this protection is based on human rights.
In the case o environmental displace-
ment, academics have ocused on the
prohibition to return anyone to torture,
nhuman or degrading treatment, also
known as non-reoulement. NRC has
taken this line, says Trebbi. Persons
with particular vulnerabilities should be
protected against return to the very di-
cult circumstances that exist during
and ater a major disaster. Finnish and
Swedish immigration laws even contain
explicit provisions to extend either tem-
porary or permanent protection to or-
eign nationals who cannot return saely
to their home country because o an en-
vironmental disaster.
PRoTecTion fRom youR oWn STaTeWhile much o the ocus is on the norma-
tive gap or cross-border displaced per-
sons, most people want to, or have to,
remain within their own country. This in-
cludes people moving because o climate
change and natural disasters. In their
case there is already a normative rame-
work in place. The Guiding Principles
on Internal Displacement already provide
a sound ramework to protect those dis-
placed within their own country, clari-
es Dr. Trk.
Experts are quick to admit that the ex-
stence o a normative ramework does
not in itsel solve all problems. Among
the Guiding Principles we nd participa-
tion and non-discrimination. Yet, when
the Asian Tsunami hit Sri Lanka in 2004,
certain sher olk were permanently re-
ocated inland with no means o survival
allegedly, or their own saety. However,
the danger o living so close to the sea
was not so great that tourist resorts could
not be built on their ormer land. In con-
nection with Hurricane Katrina in 2005,
the US authorities were criticised or
discriminating against poor Aro-Amer-
cans. For example, the evacuation plan
was to take your car and drive as ast as
you could out o there, but not everyone
had a car.
In some cases, correct implementation
is not a matter o will, but o ability. With
more than 11 million people displaced
as a result o oods l ast summer, the Pa-
kistani authorities were overwhelmed
by the extent o the disaster. The inter-
national humanitarian agencies were o
crucial help, says Trebbi o the NRC.
The organisation played a role in distrib-
uting tents and other emergency equip-
ment.
migRaTion aS a SoluTionWe are working with the assumption
that the displacement dimension will
in all probability be dwared by the mi-
gration dimension, says Dr. Trk at UN-
HCR. While most experts and humani-
tarians seem to agree on this, the debate
has largely ocused on sudden-onset dis-
asters, and displacement. So how should
we address slow-onset disasters such as
drought and the grey area between volun-
tary migration and orced displacement?
Dr. Trk shares some reections. Mi-
gration will be both a rational and in-
evitable adaptation strategy to climate
change processes. Migration-manage-
ment systems should be more sensitive
to the migration needs o those impacted
by the environment.
Proessor McAdam believes that this
has both an internal and an external di-
mension.
First, aected states need to identiy
vulnerable areas and determine whether
or not adaptation will enable people to
continue living in them. I not, they need
to consider internal migration strategies.
Secondly, other countries should con-
sider expanding migration opportunities
to acilitate international movement by
those who desire it.
There is agreement that some o the
most vulnerable people do not have
the resources to move at all. A particu-
lar acilitation o their migration may be
needed.
global guiDing PRinciPleSWhile there may be little political appetite
or a new convention at this time, there has
been some talk o taking an approach simi-
lar to the Guiding Principles on Internal
Displacement and trying to come up with
global guiding principles on environmen-
tal displacement. Guiding principles would
have an inormative and guiding value or
states and humanitarian actors as well as
some normative orce i agreed upon by
several states and important actors.
The Norwegian Foreign Minister, Jo-
nas Gahr Stre, sees potential in this
approach: It is quite possible that the
Guiding Principles on Internal Displace-
ment could be used as a basis or ad-
dressing sudden-onset environmental
displacement across borders.
UNHCR is pinning high hopes on the
Nansen Conerence. They would also like
to see the development o some guiding
principles. It would be an important
contribution i the conerence were to
recommend some basic principles, espe-
cially regarding the protection o those
displaced across international borders,
says Dr Trk.
Clearly, the question o protection or
people migrating or displaced in the con-
text o climate change is a complex one.
Some people should be protected as reu-
gees or internally displaced persons, ac-
cording to existing law. For others, legal
innovations may be needed. Perhaps this
year will see the development o some
Nansen Principles.
main SouRceS:Climate change and displacement, Forced Mi-gration Review 31, 2008.Inormal Group on Migration/Displacement andClimate Change o the IASC, 2008.Climate Change, Migration and Displacement:Who will be aected?: Working paper submittedby the inormal group on Migration/ Displace-ment and Climate Change o the IASC. UN-FCCC.Kolmannskog, V., 2009. Climate Changed: Peo-ple Displaced. Oslo: NRC.Ramesh, R., 2008. Paradise almost lost: Mal-dives seek to buy a new homeland.Guardian, 10 November 2008, available at:http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/10/maldives-climate-change [accessed 29April 2011]UN High Commissioner or Reugees, ClimateChange, Natural Disasters andHuman Displacement: A UNHCR Perspective,
14 August 2009, available at: http://www.unhcr.org/reworld/docid/4a8e48b2.html [accessed27 April 2011]CRED (Centre or Research on the Epidemiolo-gy o Disasters), 2010. 2010 Disastersin Numbers.IDMC, 2011. Preliminary fgures or 2010.IPCC, 2007. The Fourth Assessment Report.Kolmannskog, V., 2009. Climate Changed: Peo-ple Displaced. Oslo: NRC.Under-Secretary-General or Humanitarian A-airs and Emergency Relie Coordinator, 2008.Opening Remarks. Dubai International Humani-tarian Aid and Development Conerence and Ex-hibition. Dubai 8 April 2008.
SeRiouS PRoblem: while a sinking island-state scenario is a serious one, the number o peaected will be relatively small. E lsewhere, millions may be threatened. The man pictured his just one o the 11 million people displaced by the oods in Pakistan.
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Climate Change and displaCement
The worlds leaders are locked in a battle over futureglobal power, causing the worst possible environmentfor reaching the consensus needed to reduce climatechange.
Deadlockedby: Linda Jeanette GresslienEveryone agrees that climate change
must be addressed now, beore the conse-
quences become unmanageable. Even so,
there is little or no progress in internation-
al negotiations on emission reductions.
Why are global leaders so incapable o
reaching consensus?
The answer to that is complex, but a
undamental aspect is the geopolitical ri-
valry between China and the US. Neither
country wants to be the rst to commit to
reductions in green house gas emissions
that may jeopardize economic expansion.
As long as US domestic concerns make
t impossible to win Senate approval or
emission restrictions, little progress will be
orthcoming on the international scene.
Their xation on each other necessarily
paralyses international cooperation, given
that the US is unable to implement eec-
tive climate policies due to its domestic po-
itical situation, says Proessor Sebastian
Oberthr, Academic Director o the Insti-
tute or European Studies at the Vrije Uni-
versiteit in Brussels.
The uS, china anD euOver the past three decades, nine environ-
mental treaties have been negotiated and
signed by the US, including the 1997 Kyo-
to Protocol. None received enough votes
to enable Senate ratication, and it now
seems clear that within the US administra-
tion there is no wish or a new agreement
because they are themselves unable to
commit to much action.
When no pre-existing domestic regu-
lation exists, powerul interest groups,
like the oil, coal, utility and manuactur-
ing industries, ear environmental legisla-
tion will hurt them economically. Senators
rom regions highly dependent on these
industries, thereore, consistently vote
against the introduction o mandatory cli-
mate- policy measures.
A more useul approach to unlocking the
situation would be to establish a coalition
between China and the other advanced de-
veloped countries, Oberthr believes. He
thinks such an agreement would have vital
inuence on the US domestic climate de-
bate, thereby creating possibilities or the
US to implement measures linked to the
agreement. Such an agreement would also
make it possible or the EU to regain a lead-ing position in the global climate debate.
Ever since the negotiations on the Cli-
mate Change Convention in 1991, the EU
has been a driving orce in the shaping o
international climate policies. With a tar-
get o a 30 per cent emission reduction,
the EU is still trying to push emission re-
ductions internationally, but in Copen-
hagen the EU learned the lesson that, as
a medium-sized power in climate politics
- when compared to the two biggest emit-
Over the three past decades, nine environmental treatieswere negotiated and signed by the US, including the 1997 Kyotoprotocol, but did not receive enough votes or Senate ratifcation
SoluTionS: adaptation measures might reduce displacement caused by climate-change. However, only an international ag reement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can signifcantly reduce the risk owidespread uture displacement. The photo shows a group o displaced people rom southern Ethiopia. The woman on the stretcher is pregnant, and too weak to walk.
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Climate Change and displaCement
ters, the US and China - it cannot deter-
mine neither the agenda or the outcome
onegotiations
PReScRiTPTion foR DiSaSTeRDuring the Copenhagen Climate coner-ence in 2009, several issues proved impos-
sible to resolve, including the number o
international agreements to be negotiated,
the uture o the Kyoto Protocol; i.e. the
targets or maximum global temperature
increase, carbon concentrations and ag-
gregate emission reductions, the method
o determining country targets, and the
role o agricultural and orestry policies.
Only two main outcomes were pro-
duced; the tentative political declara-
tion and the continuation o UN nego-
tiations. The Copenhagen Accord is an
agreement among heads o governments
alluding to limiting temperature rise to
2 degrees Celsius. Targets or industrial-
ized countries and actions or developingcountries were set to be dened volun-
tarily; an outcome that WAS - according
to James Hansen, head o the NASA God-
dard Institute or Space Studies in New
York City - grossly unair to the next gen-
eration, and a prescription or di saster.
We cannot seem to nd a nation that
is willing to stand up and tell the truth. I
we allow warming o 2 degrees Celsius,
we will have set the planet on an unstop-
pable course back toward Pliocene con-
ditions, when sea level was 15-25 meters
higher than today, Hansen says.
abDicaTionS of ReSPonSibiliTieSAccording to Bjrn Samset, senior re-
search ellow at the Center or Inter-national Climate and Environmental
Research, global leaders acknowledge hu-
man-induced climate change, and its con-
sequences. He underlines, however, that
one important challenge is the abdication
o responsibilities.
Frustration at the lack o results in glob-
al negotiations has led politicians and en-
vironmental activists, such as, or exam-
ple, ormer Caliornia Governor, Arnold
Swarzenegger, to initiate talks at a sub-
The coPenhagen ac-coRD non binDingcommiTmenT
TemPeRaTuReS - Governments will
work to combat climate change"recognizing the scientifc view thatthe increase in global tempera-ture should be below 2 degreesCelsius"
gReenhouSe gaS emiSSionS - TheAccord does not set targets orgreenhouse gas emissions exceptto urge "deep cuts in global emis-sions".
aDaPTaTion - The Accord prom-ises to help countries adapt tothe damaging impacts o climate
change such as droughts, stormsor rising sea levels.
2020 TaRgeTS - In an annex, richnations list national goals or cutsin greenhouse gas emissions, and
developing nations set measuresto slow the rise o emissions by2020.
veRificaTion - Developed nationswill submit emissions goals orUN review. Developing nations'actions will be under domes-tic review i unded by their ownbudgets but "subject to interna-tional measurement, reporting andverifcation" when unded by or-eign aid.
DefoReSTaTion - The text sees a"crucial role" or slowing deorest-
ation trees store carbon dioxideas they grow.
maRkeTS - The accord says coun-tries will "pursue various ap-proaches, including opportunities
to use markets" to curb emissions.aiD - Developed nations promisenew and additional unds "ap-proaching $ 30 billion or 2010-12" to help developing countries.In the longer term, "developedcountries commit to a goal o mo-bilizing jointly $100 billion a yearby 2020". S ources o fnance arenot settled.
gReen funD - Countries will setup a "Copenhagen Green ClimateFund" to help channel aid. Thedeal will also set up a "Technology
Mechanism" to accelerate use ogreen technologies.
RevieW - The accord will be re-viewed in 2015.
kyoTo PRoTocolThe Kyoto Protocol is an inter-national agreement linked to thUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Themajor eature o the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targetor 37 industrialized countriesand the European community oreducing greenhouse gas emis-sions. These amount to an aver-age o fve per cent against 199levels over the fve-year period2008-2012.
aDaPTing: the changing weather and climate is orcing people to take measures to adapt to new circumstances. Many move to large, urban centres where they end up among the urban poor.
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Climate Change and displaCement
Somalia:Secondary Displacementby: Vikram Kolmannskog
Most Somalis are pastoralists, and they
have always moved to greener pastures
during droughts. A dierence now is that
the droughts aect even the traditional
areas they migrated to in times o hard-
ship. Some resort to erratic and abnor-
mal migration. Others settle in the citieswhere they oten become part o the ur-
ban poor.
There are also massive movements to
areas with rain. Today, mobile phones
enable people to inorm each other
about areas o rainall, and as a result
wealthier pastoralists transport large
numbers o livestock by trucks to these
areas, thereby creating a sudden and
massive pressure on pasture land. This,
in turn, oten makes the area more prone
to environmental degradation; which
creases competition or scarce resou
causes conict, and triggers urther d
placement.
Drought also contributes to anoth
orm o secondary and long-distance
placement. In war-torn South and Ce
tral Somalia, some people rst escap
the violence in Mogadishu and go to
countryside, or another Somalian tow
but drought and environmental degr
tion in these areas, orce them to mo
urther. Some end up in Kenya or oth
countries.
main SouRce: Kolmannskog, V., 2010. Climchange, human mobility, and protection: Initevidence rom Arica. Reugee Survey Qua29, pp. 103-119.
In war-tornSouth and CentralSomalia, some people
frst escape the violencein Mogadishu and goto the countryside,or another Somaliantown, but drought andenvironmental degra-dation in these areas,
orce to move urther.
Our parents hon-estly did not know thattheir actions could harm
uture generations, we,the current generation,can only pretend that wedid not know.JameS hanSen, NASA Goddard Institute orSpace Studies
national level. While such talks may have
a more realistic chance o reaching agree-
ment on emission reductions, other ex-
perts stress the importance o continuing
the process towards an eective legally
binding multilateral ramework, because
ultimately - that is what is needed or air,
sustained and eective global action.
James Hansen, however, stresses that
the only way o going global is to im-
pose an across-the-board ee on all ossil
uels. He nds that the Kyoto protocol has
proved to be inefcient; emissions were
increasing by 1.5 per cent annually prior
to the protocol; since then they have in-
creased 2.5 per cent per year. In order to
have a chance o stabilizing the climate,
he claims, emissions would need to de-
crease by 5 per cent annually. Instead
ossil uels are currently subsidized, both
directly and indirectly. Since countries
like China and India never will accept a (n
emission) cap, a carbon ee is the only ap-
proach to a rapid decrease in emissions.
noRTh SouTh inJuSTiceIn act, a majority o developing countries
reject any limitation o their uture emis-
sions in order to solve a problem that, so
ar, has largely been created elsewhere.
Powerul industrial nations, on the other
hand, ear losing comparative advantages
and reuse to curtail their own excesses un-
less developing countries make similar sac-
rices. At the Cancun conerence, the West
accepted voluntary actions by developing
countries and agreed to provide partial -
nance. Nevertheless, the money and con-
cessions had little impact on negotiations;
China, Brazil and India never reciprocated
with any compromises. Thus negotiations
o these reorms remain ambiguous. A pos-
sible solution is or the North to provide
large-scale nancial and technical support,
but there exists a trust issue.
The South ear that i it were to accept
its air share o the climate burden, the
North would take unair advantages o itsexibility, holding it hostage to its newly-
made commitments while continuing to
dodge their own. The North doubts that
the South is committed to solving the cli-
mate problem, and ear being locked to
a system in which the North are obliged
to nance climate measures, whilst the
South are allowed to ree ride orever.
inTeRgenaTaTonal inJuSTiceBjrn Samseth states that there is no long-
er an issue o whether or not we will ex-
ceed global 2C target; it will most certain-
ly happen, but we can delay the process,
giving us time to adjust.
It is highly unlikely that the November
2011 Climate Conerence in South Arica
will provide any tangible results. One
o the major issues will most certainly
be the question o the international le-
gal ramework or cooperation, and in
particular the uture o the Kyoto Proto-
col. The EU is likely to ace considerable
pressure to agree to a second commit-
ment period under the Protocol, thereby
securing its continuation beyond 2012.
However, among the negotiating parties,
nancial interests still seem to outweigh
climate-change concerns, and experts
and activists do not hold high hopes that
an agreement will be reached.
According to Hansen the basic issue
should not be economics, but inter-genera-
tional justice.Our parents honestly did not
know that their actions could harm uture
generations, we, the current generation,
can only pretend that we did not know.
SouRceS:EU Leadership on Climate Change: Living up tothe Challenges - Article by Pro. Dr. SebastianOberthr.Global Climate Governance ater Cancun: Op-tions or EU Leadership - Article by Pro.Dr. Se-
bastian Oberthr.Signed but Not Ratifed: Limits to U.S. Participa-tion in International Environmental Agreements -Article by Guri Bang (CICERO).Innside Copenhagen: The State o Climate Gov-ernance - Article by Radoslav S. Dimi trov.The Case or Young People and Nature: A Pathto a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future - Articleby James Hansen ( Columbia University EarthInstitute, New YorkReuters- Factbox: The Copenhagen Accord andglobal warming.http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/03/31/us-climate-accord-actbox-idUS-TRE62U1B120100331
aDaPTaTion To climaTechange
examPleS of aDaPTion meThoDS:
human healTh
Moderate temperature increases byplanting trees Prepare grain storages or emergency
eeding stations
WaTeR
Promote shore protection techniques Improve early warning systems and
ood hazard maps or storms Protect water supplies rom contami-
nation by saltwater
agRiculTuRe anD foReSTRy
Alter the timing o planting dates toadapt to changing growing conditions Alter cropping mix and orest species
that are better suited climate change Breed new plant species and crops
that are more tolerant to climate change.
uniTeD naTionS fRame-WoRk convenTion on cli-maTe change (unfccc)
The parties to the convention have metannually since 1995 in a Conerences othe Parties (COP) to assess progress indealing with climate change.
1997 - coP 3: Kyoto, Japan. Most industri-alized countries and some central Euro-pean economies in transition agreed tolegally binding reductions in greenhousegas emissions or the period 2008-2012.The protocol was rejected by the US in2001.
2009 coP 15: Copenhagen, Denmark.The overall goal was to establish a newglobal climate commitment rom the pe-riod rom 2012 onward. The negotiationshad unresolved issues and resulted onlyin a non-binding agreement The Co-penhagen Accord.
2010 - coP 16: Cancun, Mexico. The con-erence ailed to achieve a second com-mitment period or the Kyoto Protocol,but reassured a continued process under
the UN ramework. It agreed a "GreenClimate Fund", a "Climate TechnologyCentre" and the need or internationalcoordination and cooperation with regardto climate change induced displacement,migration and planned relocation. TheCancun agreements are criticized or notproviding concrete proposals or how theclimate und will be fnanced.
2011- coP 17: Durban, South Arica. A pri-mary ocus o the next conerence will beto secure a global climate agreement asthe Kyoto Protocols frst commitment pe-riod (2008-2012) is about to end.
DRoughT: drought and soil erosion present a serious problem in many parts o the world. This photograph is o a dried-out river bed in Tigray, EthiopiaIn Somalia, droughts are a n important cause o displacement, whilst Guatemal a, Honduras and Nicaragua have suered several seasons o severedrought.
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Climate Change and displaCement
DiSPlaceDby naTuRalDiSaSTeRS
figuRe 1: 2008-2010 Countries with the highest levels o displacement
Europe andOceania
Asia Americas Arica
Asia was consistently the continent mostaected in terms o the absolute numberand percentage o people displaced. Itwas also the continent where the eventswith the highest number o people dis-placed took place. The Americas and thenArica tend to ollow Asia as the secondand third most aected continents.
From a global perspective, large-scaledisasters dominated the fgures and theworlds attention, and caused more than90 per cent o total displacement re-ported each year. The most dramatic di-erence between each year can be un-derstood by the size and number o thelargest events or mega-disasters.
numbeR of PeoPle DiSPlaceD (millionS)
cauSe of DiSPlacemenT 2008 % 2009 % 2010 %
climaTe-RelaTeD DiSaSTeRS 20.3 56% 15.2 91% 38.3 90%
geoPhySical DiSaSTeRS 15.8 44% 1.5 9% 4.0 10%
ToTal 36.1
16.7
42.3
The orced displacement o men, women and children rom their homes
by natural disasters is a large-scale, global phenomenon. A report newly re-
leased by the Norwegian Reugee Councils Internal Displacement Monitor-
ing Centre, highlights the magnitude o the problem:
At least 42.3 million people were newly displaced by sudden-onset
natural disasters in 2010.
Climate related hazards, such as oods and storms, were responsible or
most o the displacement each year, and as such the most important driver
o displacement. With climate change accelerating, this is a challenge that is
expected to grow.
figuRe 2: The scale o disasters triggering displacement relative to the global estimate or each year
2008
2008
100 000 000
90 000 000
80 000 000
70 000 000
60 000 000
50 000 000
40 000 000
30 000 000
20 000 000
10 000 000
0
50 000 000
45 000 000
40 000 000
35 000 000
30 000 000
25 000 000
20 000 000
15 000 000
10 000 000
5 000 000
0
2009
2009
2010
2010
all yeaRS
Displacement by medium-small disas-ters (Less than 100,000 displaced perevent)Displacement by large disasters(100,000 - 999,999 displaced per event)Displacement by mega-disasters(1 million and over displaced per event)
While the global estimates highlight therole o the largest disasters and their im-pact on the scale o displacement g lob-ally, smaller scale disasters are ar l ess
visible. It is more difcult to fnd dataor some countries and regions than orothers. Improved data collection and in-creased sharing o inormation should bepromoted to strengthen the monitoringand response to displacement.
43 MILLION DISPLACED
ORDINARY PEOPLE DOINGEXTRAORDINARY WORK
www.norcapweb.no
NORCAP (Norwegian Capacity) is the worlds most frequentlyused emergency standby roster. Since 1991 we have secondedpersonnel to more than 6000 assignments globally. NORCAP
consists of 850 ordinary women and men who are ready to deployto international operations within 72 hours.
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PersPectiveNO. 02.2011
profile Kristalina GeorgievaShe became EU commissioner almost by accident,but Kristalina Georgievasleadership of the European Unions department for humanitarian aid and crisisresponse has brought her both praise and popularity.
Preparing forDangerous TimesI oten say that I have the best job in the Commission, because
t is about helping people in their most dire moment o need.
But it is also the worst job, because there are so many people
who need help, and unortunately these numbers are not de-
clining, Georgieva explains.
PASSIONATE TRAVELLER
My interview with Georgieva takes place in her spacious oce
n the Berlaymont building in Brussels. It is the end o a busy
day, in particular or Georgieva, who had spent the previous
night travelling back rom Washington. Nonetheless she shows
no sign o jet lag.
I was well trained in my previous job in the World Bank,
she says, that position also required a lot o travelling, and I
have a very good team that provides the help I need to be able
to maintain the energy my job requires.
Travelling takes up a lot o her time. In addition she also has
to travel to Soa in order to spend time with her amily. Her
husband and daughter live in the Bulgarian capital, Soa. Fortu-
nately she claims to be a passionate traveller.
CONFLICT AND DISASTER
In recent months, much o Georgievas time has been dedicated
to orming and implementing EU policies designed to alleviate
the grim consequences o the Arab uprisings. In early March,
as part o this eort, she travelled to Tunisia to inspect camps
which were being overwhelmed by tens o thousands o migrantworkers feeing the violence in Libya. She has also been deeply
nvolved in the successul evacuation o between 5 and 6,000
European Union citizens rom Libya, and the EUs eorts to as-
sist the more than 700,000 third country nationals, that fed
Libya, to return home.
As events unolded in North Arica and the Middle East, ca-
tastrophe struck on the other side o the world, in Japan. At the
end o March, Georgieva was the rst high-level internation-
al politician to visit Japan to witness the consequences o the
earthquake, the subsequent tsunami, and nuclear crisis that
struck the country.
INTERNATIONAL CAREER
Though still frmly linked to her home country through am-
ily ties, Kristalina Georgieva has not worked in Bulgaria since
1991. She let to pursue a career as an environmental econo-
mist, frst as a visiting proessor at a number o universities
around the world, later as a consultant to the World Bank,
which very soon decided to employ her. In the course o the
next 16 years she rose through the World Bank hierarchy, run-
ning World Bank programmes in Russia, Asia, China and the
Pacifc region, beore becoming Vice-President o the Bank in
2008.
She remained in this position until, quite unexpectedly
and it the middle o the night - Bulgarian Prime Minister,
Boyko Borisov phoned to ask i she would agree to become
Bulgarias nominee to the EU Commission. Only a ew days
earlier, Borisovs frst choice or the position, Bulgarian or-
eign minister, Rumina Jeleva, had come under strong pres-
sure during a hearing beore the European Parliament, when
representatives started raising doubts about her qualifca-
tions and fnancial interests.
I took the job or two reasons; it was necessary or Bulgaria
to nominate a new candidate as quickly as possible and, giv-
en the nature o the portolio, I elt that that I was qualied,
Georgieva says.
A POPULAR POLITICIAN
In the short time she has been in oce, Kristalina Georgievahas managed to impress many people, both in Brussels and
beyond. 11 months ater she became a commissioner, readers
o the Brussels based EU-aairs newspaper, European Voice,
named her both European Commissioner o the Year and Euro-
pean o the Year. Her success was endorsed by NGO representa-
tives, colleagues and associates in the EU capital.
These rewards also triggered praise and enthusiasm in her
home country. The Bulgarian media speculated in the possi-
bility that Georgieva might stand as presidential candidate or
the ruling centre-right party GERB in the 2011 presidential elec-
tions. These rumours have since been denied.
There isa new breed
of politicianswho support
left-wing orright-wing views
depending onthe issues. I am
one of them.
By: Birgit Vartdal
EU COmmISSIONER: Kristalina Georgieva is one o the worlds most inuential aid politicians. As head o the EUs department or humanitarian responshe controls the worlds second largest aid budget. Photo: European Parli
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CONSERVATIVE AND LEFT-WING
Georgieva is not member o any political party, and she has
been a technocrat all her lie. She does, however, have strong
inks to GERB. Asked to place hersel upon the traditional let-
wing, right-wing political spectrum, she says:
There is a new breed o politicians who support let-wing
or right-wing views depending on the issues. I am one o them.
When it comes to scal matters and economic discipline, I
place mysel on the conservative side. In issues related to de-
velopment, human rights and the envi-
ronment, I belong to the political let.
GERB is a centre-right party, but it is also
a party that on many domestic issues
acts more like a centre-let party, she ex-
plains.
Kristalina Georgieva does ollow Bul-
garian politics, but it is EU policy that lls
her agenda.I always ocus on the job I have. As
ong as I am in this job it has my ull dedi-
cation ,and I have three and a hal years
to go, she laughs.
DANGEROUS FUTURE
When Georgieva came into oce, one o her rst policy initia-
tives was to start preparing the EU or a uture that was likely
to experience more requent and more serious disasters. Her
communication on strengthening European disaster response
was published in October last year.
This is a very pragmatic approach to strengthening Europes
ability to deliver support in times o disaster. It has ve clear
and concrete steps: rstly, introduce more scenario planning;
in other words, anticipate what type o disasters that are likely
to happen, secondly, appraise the EUs collective humanitarian
resources, thirdly, determine what resources we do not have,
and decide on the best ways o acquiring them, ourthly, organ-
ise our logistics and transport in advance and, nally, establish
a European emergency response-centre to coordinate our ac-
tions, she explains.
The new European emergency re-
sponse centre is scheduled to be opera-
tional at the end o 2011.
AID IN TImES OF CRISIS
Another topic keeping Kristalina Geor-
gieva busy, is the ongoing debate over the
EUs multi-annual nancial ramework.Her aim is to secure an annual outlay o 1
billion euro or humanitarian aid, an ob-
jective she thinks it should be possible to
achieve even in times o nancial crisis.
I think we have a strong case. We need to relate this und-
ing request to events that have taken place over the last years.
Needs are increasing, and EU spending on humanitarian meas-
ures has already reached a level o a billion euro or more. We
have made a commitment to the UN to spend 0.7 per cent o
our GDP or development purposes, including humanitarian
aid, Georgieva argues.
AID AND INDEPENDENCy
The debate over the new long term EU budget has also created
concerns about the independent standing o humanitarian aid.
Reports earlier this year suggested that the humanitarian aid
dossier could all under the purview o the blocs new external
action service led by Catherine Ashton.
Over my dead body! Kristalina Georgieva exclaimed (accord-
ing to the EUobserver) when, in February, she was conronted
with these rumours in ront o a Brussels audience. Now, a ew
months later, her response is more relaxed.
She says she is confdent that EU aid will
never become a oreign policy tool, as it is,
or example, in the United States.
I am very confdent that Europe has
made the right choice to keep humanitar-
ian aid impartial, independent and neutral.
In 2009, or the frst time, Europe also es-
tablished a commissionaire o humanitar-ian aid, and it is my duty to protect this in-
dependence, she says, characterising the
uncertainty still voiced among humanitar-
ian aid workers as a natural reaction to the ongoing changes in the
EU administration.
When change takes place, there is o course uncertainty, as
well as a risk o wrong decisions being made. But we are now
beyond that stage; rstly, it is now clear that the humanitar-
ian unding instrument will be independent rom the oreign
policy instrument. Secondly, it has been decided that my ser-
vice will stay outside the external action service. And thirdly,
we have -via precedence established a working partnershi
in which we collaborate without sacricing the independe
that is so important or humanitarian workers, the EU aid
chie adds.
SOLIDARITy
In her recent visits to Japan and Libya, Kristalina Georgieva
was impressed by the resilience shown by ordinary people
ing under dicult circumstances. In her blog she chronicle
her personal impressions rom the e
and refects upon what lessons can b
learned rom these tragedies.
While Libya and the Ivory Coast a
marked by conficts grounded in sup
pression o some people by others. In
pan it was a orce o nature that brou
the country to its knees. This taught
that even the best prepared [or t ackling disasters] are no longer sae. My
counterpart on disasters in the US sa
something very important when we m
recently. He said: while we have a tradition to prepare or t
disasters we can imagine, we now have to prepare or the u
thinkable - or the disasters we dont have the skills to addre
would add that in the ace o disasters we all have to be hum
and accept that we need to build global solidarity, because
the uture it will no longer be a question o developed coun
helping developing countries, it will be about human race,
ryone helping each other, says Kristalina Georgieva.
KRISTALINA
GEORGIEVA
BORN: Sofa, Bulgaria, 1953
EDUCATION: M.A in Political Ecoomy Sociology (1976). Ph.D inEnvironmental Economics (198
CAREER: currently serving as European commissioner or inter-national co-operation, humanitaian aid and crisis response. Shestarted her career as assistant,then proessor at the Universityo National and World EconomySofa (1977-93). Later she hepositions as visiting proessor aa number o universities aroundthe world. In 1992, she becamea consultant to the World Bankon environmental policy. In thecourse o the next 16 years sherose through the hierarchy, run-ning programmes in Russia, AsChina and the Pacifc region, be
ore becoming Vice-President othe World Bank in 2008.
IN ThE FIELD 3: visiting disaster areas in order to a ssess the situation frst hand is an important parto Georgievas job. In August 2010, she visited Pachwar, Pakistan, and talked to people aectedby the Pakistan oods. Photo: EU/AFP/Katsumi Kasahara
N ThE FIELD 1: Georgieva and President Salva Kiir Mayardit discussing theon-going humanitarian problems in South Sudan.
Photo: EU/AFP/Katsumi Kasahara
IN ThE FIELD 2: at the end o March 2011, Georgieva travelled to Japan to oversee the delivery o aid romthe EU and to discuss civil protection with the Japanese authorities. The EU aid shipment contained 70 tonso relie items, including blankets, mattresses and sleeping bags. Photo: EU/AFP/Katsumi Kasahara
profile Kristalina Georgieva
I always ocuson the job I have. Aslong as I am in this
job it has my ulldedication.
I am very conf-dent that Europe hasmade the right choice
to keep humanitar-ia