perspec’ve on market vola’lity · 1 day ago · sustained equity moves -the longer states...
TRANSCRIPT
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Perspec'veonMarketVola'lityJuly14,2020
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PerspectiveontheCoronavirus
Source:StrategasResearch
Althoughthereareshorttermnega'vereac'onstoepidemics,ul'mately,thehealthoftheglobaleconomyandmagnitudeofmonetary&fiscals'mulusdictatethedirec'onofriskmarkets.BothSARSandSwineflucoincidedwithglobals'mulusmeasurestocombatrecessions.Asaresult,marketsralliedaKerini'alvola'lity.
Globalgovernmentmeasurestoshutdowneconomiesandquaran'nehealthyci'zenswasunique.
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MarketReac'on
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Source:BofA,Strategas,NedDavis
MarketReaction
Ini'almarketreac'onsimilarto9/11&Hitler’sinvasionofFrance.
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Source:NedDavis
MarketReaction
Ini'almarketreac'onsimilarto9/11&Hitler’sinvasionofFrance.
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Source:ASRResearch,Strategas,MRBPartners
MonetaryPolicyResponse–CentralBankResponse
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Source:BiancoResearch
MonetaryResponse–FedIsNotOutofArrows
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Source:Strategas,BCA
FiscalResponse
Arguablylateanddelayedbypoli'cs,butofsignificantmagnitude.
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Source:BCA,Strategas,Bridgewater
ThisIsNot2008
Despitebankstockpricecollapse,therearenoimminentcreditconcernswiththeUSbankingsystem.Bankscon'nuetolendthroughthecrisis.
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MarketReaction
RallyofftheLows–OneoftheGreatestinMarketHistory(ButVeryNarrow)
Source:BespokeInvestmentGroup,Strategas,BlackRock 10
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MarketReaction
RallyofftheLows–GreatestinMarketHistory(ButVeryNarrow)
Source:NedDavis 11
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Source:BespokeResearch
MarketReaction
RallyofftheLows–GreatestinMarketHistoryMissedbyRetailInvestors
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WhatDeterminestheShapeofRecovery?Employment,theConsumer,andthePathoftheVirus
EconomicImpact
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PerspecDveontheCoronavirus
DoestheshapeorleDermaDer?
Source:NedDavisResearch 14
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ImpactoftheCoronavirus–USLaborMarket&ConsumerSpendingShock
Source:BCA 15
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LookingForward–WilltheWellRunDry?
Source:Blackrock 16
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Source:Allianz,Strategas
LookingForward
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Source:Allianz
PerspectiveontheCoronavirus
Thepathoutofeconomicshutdown–Vshapelooksunlikelygivenconsumerpacerns(>2/3ofoureconomy!).
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Source:Bianco,Allianz
PerspectiveontheCoronavirus
Thepathoutofeconomicshutdown–Vshapelooksunlikelygivenconsumerpacerns(>2/3ofoureconomy!).
VirusspreadingintheSunbeltshowshowfragiletherecoveryis.
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LookingForward
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Source:Bespoke
MarketReaction
HistoryDoesRhyme…ExpectVolaKlity
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Source:ASRLtd
MarketReaction
HistoryDoesRhyme…ExpectVolaKlity
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Source:MRB,Strategas
SupplementalChartsofInterest–Elections/Politics
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Source:Bianco,Strategas,BCA
SupplementalChartsofInterest–Elections/Politics:OntheOtherHand…
Marketsdonopriceinriskun'lOctober.Pollingdatahasnotbeenaccurate.
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Source:NedDavis,FinancialTimes,BCA
WhatCouldGoWrong?
GlobalDebtExplosionamplifiedbytheCovidCrisis
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LookingForward
ChartstoWatch
Short-TermTechnicals
POSITIVE
+50%FibonacciRetracementlevelforS&P500(2947=61.8%)clearedalongwith200daymovingaverage(3000)inJune
+Creditspreadstightening,copperpricesarerallyingoffthebottomandsemiconductorpricesareoutperformingtheS&P500
-Two-yearTreasuryYields:Flailing2yearpricesdemonstratelackofconfidenceingrowth
-Ultrashorttechnicalareoverbought.Put/Callratiosshownofearinequities.
+EquityMutualFundFlowsfinallyturnedpositive.SentimentSurveysarestillbearish.
+S&Pfuturespositioningisnetshort(2016levelsdespitetheS&Pmove.
+PolicyUncertaintyIndexremainselevated*Creditspreadsarecriticaltorecovery*Watchingsmallcap,REITs,banks,&transportstoconfirmtheturn
RegulatoryInsights
MIXED
+/-ReopeningofAmericaiscriticalforsustainedequitymoves
-Thelongerstatesremainclosedthehigherrisksforpermanentunemployment,bankruptcies,anddefaults.Theresultisadampenedrecovery
+Additionalstimulusintheworks(individualsandstate/localgovernment).Potentialfor“on-shoring”taxincentives
+Totalmonetary/fiscalresponseintheUSis$10trillion(6monthsofGDP)
+Fedpurchasesofcorps,munis,andETFsminimizesliquidityrisk
-Electionyearrhetoricwillheatup-TradeWarPartII?-GovernmentCoviddecisionscreateuncertainty
-Pathoftheviruspostre-openornextfluseason
*WatchOxfordCovidGovernmentResponseTrackerData–remainsstringentdespitere-openings
EconomicDevelopments
NEGATIVE
-Alleconomicdataareafunctionofwhenshut-inorderslift -Thisposesascientificandpoliticaldilemma
-EarningsandGDPwillbehorrific–howwillmarketsreact?
-MarketreactionsdependonCoVidnewsoftheday
+EcondataeasilysurpassingpessimisticexpectationsinMayandJune
*WatchingNYFed’sWeeklyEconIndexforaturnandotherhighfrequencydata: -Weeklyjoblessclaims-Weeklyretailsales-Railcardata-Bankruptcyfilings
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MarketReaction
HistoryDoesRhyme…
S&P S&PPrice Return Price Return
Assumed From FromS&P EPS Market EPS Bear-Market Bottom Bear-Market Bottom
Market Bottom Bottom Turn Around through Recession throughBottom Quarter * Lead-Time * Date Turn Around Date End Recession End Month
10/22/1957 3Q 1958 3Q Before 1/31/1959 42.3% Apr-58 11.4%6/26/196210/7/1966 3Q 1967 3Q Before 1/31/1968 26.0%5/26/1970 4Q 1970 2Q Before 4/30/1971 50.0% Nov-70 25.8%10/3/1974 3Q 1975 3Q Before 1/31/1976 61.9% Mar-75 33.8%8/12/1982 1Q 1983 2Q Before 7/31/1983 58.7% Nov-82 35.3%12/4/1987
10/11/1990 4Q 1991 4Q Before 4/30/1992 40.4% Mar-91 27.0%10/9/2002 4Q 2001 4Q After 4/30/2002 N/A Nov-01 N/A3/9/2009 3Q 2009 2Q Before 1/31/2010 58.7% Jun-09 35.9%
* Source: Strategas
THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF WAITING FOR THE BELL TO RING
No earnings declines exhibited during this bear market.
No earnings declines exhibited during this bear market.
Bear market without accompanying recession.Bear market without accompanying recession.
Bear market without accompanying recession.
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Source:CapitalEconomics
PerspectiveontheCoronavirus
SignsofFlaDeningConfirmedCases
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Source:CapitalEconomics,ASRLtd.,Strategas
PerspectiveontheCoronavirus
Thepathoutofeconomicshutdown–robustbusinessac'vitybutsubduedconsumerspending.
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Source:Statista,Bespoke
ImpactoftheCoronavirus
EmploymentandGDPContribuKonbyIndustry–SmallBusinessStruggles
30
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InvestmentThemes
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OpalAssetAllocationDashboard
Equity U.S. Macro Conditions
Developed International Macro Conditions
Fixed IncomeEmerging International Macro Conditions
Currencies Real Assets
1 Recommendations are intended to reflect a 12-24 month forecast.The presence of an arrow indicates a recent change (right arrow = upgraded; left arrow = downgraded).
Asset Allocation Dashboard – July 7, 2020
Taiber Kosmala & Associates Asset Allocation Recommendations1
─ 2 ─ 1 0 + 1 + 2Beta
+ 1 + 2
ValueGrowthLarge-CapSmall-CapU.S.Developed International
→Technicals (200 Day Moving Average) →
DurationInvestment GradeHigh YieldLoansNon-U.S.
U.S. Dollar $Euro €
Emerging International
←→
Japanese Yen ¥British Sterling £
─ 2 ─ 1 0MonetaryFiscalEconomicValuation
MonetaryFiscalEconomicValuation
→
MonetaryFiscalEconomicValuation
Oil ←Precious MetalsIndustrial Metals →Timber
Public REITs
AgriculturePrivate Real Estate
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OpalWealthAdvisorsAssetAlloca'onRecommenda'ons1
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Source:BCA,Strategas,Murenbeeld
SupplementalChartsofInterest
Gold&Energy
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Source:Leuthold,Strategas
SupplementalChartsofInterest
F.A.Q.SmallCaps
34
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Source:MRB,BankofAmerica
SupplementalChartsofInterest
F.A.Q.InternaKonal
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Source:BankofAmerica,Strategas,MRB
SupplementalChartsofInterest–Valuevs.Growth
4factorsaidgrowth:1)weakaggregateearnings2)lowrates 3)technologicalshiKs4)qualitytrade.
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Source:RiverNorthCapitalManagement
SupplementalChartsofInterest–CEFs
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Source:ZelmanAssociates
TheBullishThesisforHomebuilders
Recordlowinventories,recordlowrates,increasedaffordabilityandyoungerdemographicshiKprovidehealthybackdrop.
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Source:ZelmanAssociates
SupplementalHomebuildersCharts
UrbantosuburbanshiK,higherfamilyforma'on,resilientsales,andhigherposi'veequityforhomeowners.
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Source:EatonVance,Strategas
SupplementalChartsofInterest
HistoricalContextofFixedIncomeValuaKons
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Source:BCA,Bianco,Strategas
SupplementalChartsofInterest
HistoricalContextofEquityValuaKons
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