perovskite and c-si results nathan chang
TRANSCRIPT
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Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics
Manufacturing Cost Analysis Method
Perovskite and c-Si results
Nathan Chang
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Cost Analysis Background
• > 15 years in Solar. R&D and Manufacturing - Pacific
Solar / CSG Solar / Suntech R&D Australia
• Cost analysis of CSG Thin film silicon technology
– 1999-2003 – Lab process - Guide research
– 2004-2005 – Lab process - Justify Manufacturing
– 2006–2008 – Lab/Manufacturing process - Analysing
process changes
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3 Performance – PCE, lifetime
Cost
$/m2
Where are we now?
X
X
X
What if our research is successful?
X
X
X
What barriers should we focus on?
Barrier
Barrier
Commercially Viable
Motivation: Assess new technologies
Not Commercially
Viable
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Problem: Accurate Data
• Technical
– Process sequence? What Equipment? Material
utilization? Cell/Module efficiencies?
• Cost
– Single tool cost? Multiple tool cost? High volume
pricing of materials?
• Market
– Selling price?
– Special features?
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Cost analysis method – Part 1
• Monte Carlo Analysis
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Select Parameter Ranges
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Generate values for parameters
Two half log normal distribution where:
Median = Nominal
10th percentile = Low
90th percentile = High
Zi = a sample of the standard normal
distribution
In Excel: Norm.S.Inv(rand())
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Example Generated parameters
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Repeat for each parameter
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Calculate each iteration
Global assumptions, eg
• Electricity cost
($/kWh)
• Labour cost ($/h)
• Depreciation time
(years)
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Analyse Total Cost
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Analyse Total Cost
Normalised Uncertainty =
(90th – 10th) / Median
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All processes and materials
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All processes and materials
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Application 1 – Perovskite on glass
(CHOSE 100 cm2 module*) Layer Formation
Method
Pattern
Method
FTO
Glass
Purchased Laser 1
C-TiO2 Spray
Pyrolysis
Chemical lift
off (Ag mask)
TiO2
Scaffold
Screen Print Laser 2
Two-step
perovskite
Blade Coat Laser 2
P3HT
(HTM)
Blade Coat Laser 3
Metal
(Gold)
Evaporation Masked
* Razza et al. Journal of Power Sources 2015; 277: 286–291.
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Cost Data Sources
• Thin film silicon cost publications.
• c-Si cost publications
• OPV cost publications
• CdTe cost publications
• Materials suppliers (list prices)
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Note: c-Si module spot price ~ US$67/m2
A
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c-Si module spot price ~ US$67/m2
A
B
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Normalised Cost Uncertainty
= (90th – 10th)/ Median
Ignore for now
Improve cost
understanding.
Low priority
Alternative material/process?
Improve cost
Understanding.
And/Or
Alternative
material/process?
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Perovskite on Glass – Guidance to
Researchers
• Gold as rear layer – prohibitive cost.
• P3HT material – can it be replaced? Cost study?
• Evaporated metal – can it be replaced? Cost study?
• More Details: N. L. Chang, A. Y. Ho-Baillie, P. A. Basore, T. L. Young, R. Evans, R. J. Egan. A
manufacturing cost estimation method with uncertainty analysis and its
application to perovskite on glass photovoltaic modules, Progress in Photovoltaics:
Research and Applications 25 (5) (2017) 390–405
• Includes: Additional cost improvements, LCOE analysis,
efficiency and lifetime targets.
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Cost Analysis Method – Part 2
• What about:
– Efficiency ($/m2 -> $/W)
– Market value (selling price)
oPremium for high efficiency (higher $/W price)
o Impact of changed energy yield (eg temperature
co-efficient, light induced degradation, lifetime)
oOther features (light-weight, aesthetics).
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Application 2 – Improvements to c-Si cells
A: Al-BSF
A: Al-BSF
• Aluminium Back Surface Field
• Previous standard in c-Si
manufacturing.
• ~ 20% cell efficiency (p-type mono
wafer, ITRPV)
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Application 2 – Improvements to c-Si cells
A: Al-BSF B: PERC
B: PERC
• Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell
• Improved rear, higher Eff
• New standard in c-Si
manufacturing.
• ~21.3% eff (p-type mono, ITRPV)
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Application 2 – Improvements to c-Si cells
A: Al-BSF B: PERC
C: Al-BSF + LDSE C: Al-BSF + LDSE
• Laser Doped Selective
Emitter
• Improved front, higher Eff
• Suntech Pluto
• Estimate potential
~0.5%abs better than A
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Application 2 – Improvements to c-Si cells
A: Al-BSF B: PERC
C: Al-BSF + LDSE D: PERC + LDSE
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Application 2 – Improvements to c-Si cells
B: PERC
D: PERC + LDSE
??
Question:
• Is LDSE worth adding to a
PERC cell?
• Higher cost, but higher
efficiency.
• Estimate potential
~0.9%abs better than B
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Data Sources
• Processing Details
– PERC - Sunrise
– LDSE – UNSW publications
• Cost Details
– PERC, Module – Michael Woodhouse (NREL)
– LDSE – UNSW
• Efficiency
– PERC – ITRPV
– PERC + LDSE – Extrapolated UNSW publications
• Wafer/Module Market Pricing
– EnergyTrend, Bloomberg, PVXchange
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Simultaneous Monte Carlo Analysis
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Simultaneous Monte Carlo Analysis
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Simultaneous Monte Carlo Analysis
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Simultaneous Monte Carlo Analysis
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Module fabrication costs
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Efficiency
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Market Price -> Margin
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Margin per module
Why so wide?
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Uncertainty in the Margin difference
• Process costs (Normalised uncertainty)
– Common processes
– + oxide, Laser doping, plating, sinter
– - front silver screenprint
• Efficiency boost from LDSE
• Difference in cell fabrication yield
• Market module price
• High power price premium
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Linear Regression – contribution to
variance Parameter Range (10th – 90th
percentile)
Contribution to
uncertainty (%)
Efficiency difference 0.7 – 1.0 %abs 30%
Power Premium 0.05 – 0.12 c/W per
additional module W
24%
Yield Difference +/– 1 % 11%
Ag plating solution 0.56 – 1.7 $/m2 10%
Front Ag paste cost 1.2 – 2.2 $/m2 9%
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Graphical Representation
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Analysis 2 – Conclusions
• LDSE front with PERC rear has promise.
– $/W basis - Not beneficial at module level
– Margin basis - looks attractive, but uncertainty
oPerformance (efficiency gain, production yield)
Prove in the lab?
oPrice premium. Can we be more confident of this?
o Individual process costs - less relevant.
• More Details:
– Paper in Preparation.
– Advanced Hydrogenation is also analysed.
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Summary
• Cost analysis method and benefits
– Monte Carlo uncertainty -> Less time/effort required.
– Normalised uncertainty –> Focus process
development and cost analysis efforts.
– Simultaneous monte carlo -> distinguish
incremental improvements.
– Contribution to variance -> identify critical cost,
performance or market parameters.
• Technologies discussed
– Perovskite - on glass.
– c-Si - PERC and LDSE.
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Special Thanks • Cost Analysis Methodology: Renate Egan, Martin Green, Rhett
Evans, Anita Ho-Baillie, Paul Basore (NREL/DOE), Michael Woodhouse (NREL)
• Thin film Si – Sergey Varlamov
• Perovskite on Glass: Anita Ho-Baillie, Trevor Young, UNSW perovskite group, Monash Uni perovskite group.
• Perovskite R2R: Doojin Vak, Mei Gao and CSIRO printing group
• c-Si: Stuart Wenham, Hydrogenation Group, SIRF, Budi Tjahjono (Sunrise)
Interested in analyzing your technology?
• Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics (ACAP)
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Acknowledgements
This Program has been
supported by the Australian
Government through the
Australian Renewable Energy
Agency (ARENA).
Responsibility for the views,
information or advice expressed
herein is not accepted by the
Australian Government.
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China wholesale spot price US$/W (last 12 months) - PVXChange