Performance of COSMO-LEPS over the Alpine region

Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Tiziana Paccagnella

ARPA-SMR, Bologna, Italy

ICAM/MAPBrig, 19-23 May 2003

youngest EPS

middle EPS

oldest EPS

COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWF

start of COSMO-LEPS integrations

+120

+132

+144

clustering

times

day

153 members

12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12

n –1 n n+1 +2 +3 +4 +5

COSMO-LEPS

Dim 2

Initial conditions Dim 1

ECMWF LM

precipitation scenarios

PROBABILITY MAPS

COSMO-LEPS INTEGRATION DOMAIN

LOKAL MODELL10 KM

HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION

COSMO-LEPS

Lokal Model scenarios

Probability Maps       prob of 24h rainfall exceeding 20,50,100,150 mm prob of 24h Tmax exceeding 20,30,35,40 C         prob of 24h Tmin below -10,-5,0,+5 C         prob of 24h Vmax exceeding 10,15,20,25 m/s         prob of 24h snowfall exceeding 1,5,10,20 mm of equivalent water

Deterministic products for each of the 5 LM runs: PrecipitationMean Sea level pressure700 hPa Geopotential850 hPa Temperature

Transfer to Cosmo Partners

and other interested

Member States

Elbe Flood

12-13 August 2002

11/08 12UTC

12/08 00UTC

12/08 12UTC

13/08 00UTC

13/08 12UTC

Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC

Courtesy of Ulrich Damrath

Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC

oldest EPS

middle EPS

youngest EPS

00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12

8 9 10 11 12 13

+72

+96

+96

+120

+84

+108

I.C. and B.C. 5 LM runs +7

2+96

FC 08/08 12UTC FC 09/08 00UTC

FC 09/08 12UTC ANALYSIS 13/08 00UTC

Z700

124

5

11

6

7 ana

Z700

COSMOCOSMOLEPSLEPS

obs

124

5

7

6

11

TP

COSMOCOSMOLEPSLEPS

COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitationCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation

> 50mm/24h

> 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h

> 20mm/24hWW

NWNWCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitationCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation

> 50mm/24h

> 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h

> 20mm/24h

Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC

ECMWF EPS probability of ECMWF EPS probability of precipitationprecipitation

> 50mm/24h> 20mm/24h

Youngest EPS> 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h

Super-ensemble

Lokal Modell deterministic runLokal Modell deterministic run12/08 00UTC Fc +6 +3012/08 00UTC Fc +6 +30

Courtesy of Ulrich Damrath

obsobs

LM +6 +30LM +6 +30

Fine

Size RM Date Time Lag

CL 1: 124 13 2002/08/09 12 0CL 2: 11 25 2002/08/08 12 24CL 3: 5 42 2002/08/08 12 24CL 4: 6 32 2002/08/08 12 24CL 5: 7 18 2002/08/08 12 24

8 9 121110 13

EPS 8 12UTC + 9 00UTC + 9 12UTC

Z700 ANALYSIS

13/08 12UTC

12/08 12UTC 13/08 00UTC

124 11

5 6

7 obs

1212

COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitationCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation

> 50mm/24h

> 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h

> 20mm/24hWW1212

NWNWCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitationCOSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation

> 50mm/24h

> 150mm/24h> 100mm/24h

> 20mm/24h1212

ECMWF EPS probability of ECMWF EPS probability of precipitationprecipitation

> 50mm/24h> 20mm/24h

Youngest EPS> 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h

Super-ensemble1212

obsobs

LM +6 +30LM +6 +30

1212