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The Daily Item

Your MoneyTHURSDAY www.dailyitem.com October 27,2016

Economists: Next president could see recessionBy Jim TankersleyThe Washington Post

The U.S. economy is delivering some of the best employment and in­come gains of the last 40 years, boost­ing workers in a way that recalls the boom years of the 1980s and 1990s.

But while the gains may help Hill­ary Clinton rebuff Donald Trump’s frequent attacks on the state of the nation and the Obama administra­tion's record, she would face a series of minefields if she wins the White House. As would Trump, if he pulls off a victory.

Economists say there is a one in five chance of recession next year. The Federal Reserve is on a march toward raising interest rates. And threats con­tinue to flow from abroad, including the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union and other signs of turbulence in the global economy.

A recession — or even a decline in economic momentum — could rapidly expose the new president to criticism and change the ability of the new ad­ministration to accomplish its goals.

“When the economy goes south in the first term, it’s a treacherous situation for a president hoping for

reelection,” said Nicole Hemmer, a presidential historian at the University of Virginia.

This is one way that the robust econ­omy at the end of President Obama’s tenure could affect not just the out­come of the campaign but what the next four years look like for whoever occupies the White House.

If wage and employment gains per­sist for the next four years, many of the concerns about worker stagnation that have dominated the national discussion could ease. If not, it could complicate the next president’s agenda as he or she faces questions about why they

are presiding over a weak economy.The winning candidate appears cer­

tain to take office under far less eco­nomic strain than Obama did in 2009, in the thick of the Great Recession. In the past two years the economy has gained an unusual level of momentum with sharp improvements for many Americans.

Wages and workUnemployment is low, some out-

of-work Americans are rejoining the labor force, and wages rocketed higher in 2015 at their fastest pace since the Census started keeping track fifty

years ago.“The recovery has been accelerat­

ing in terms of incomes,” said Robert Shapiro, an economist who worked in the Clinton White House, who has donated to Hillary Clinton's presiden­tial campaign. “What we are seeing is a return to the faster pattern” of the 1980s and 1990s.

A new analysis by Shapiro suggests that the recovery during President Obama’s second term has boosted typi­cal workers’ incomes at a rate compa­rable to the 1990s under Clinton and

Please see NEXT, Page D2

Mid-life entrepreneurs

Jessica Sitko, of Trademark Antiques, works on jewelry inside her Lewisburg office.Justin Engle/The Daily Item

Valley residents shift gears, start new businessesBy Marcia MooreThe Daily Item

Susquehanna Valley native Jes­sica Sitko was enjoying a high- powered legal career in Washing­ton, D.C., when she decided to have a child in her late 30s and take on a slower-paced job.

“I loved my work, but when my son was born, I knew I wouldn’t be able to spend as much time with him as I wanted,” said Sitko, 40, who chose to move closer to her parents in Elysburg and start her own business. “I mourned the loss of my job and it took me a long time to fall into a new groove, but it’s allowed me to explore new things.”

Today, she and her husband, Ja­son Lazorcik, live in Lewisburg and operate TrademarkAntiques. com, selling vintage and antique jewelry online.

Sitko is joining a rising number of mid-life entrepreneurs who are leaving company jobs to strike out on their own, said Reed Byrum, business consultant at Bucknell University Small Business Devel­opment Center (SBDC).

“There is a swelling of en­trepreneurship in mid- to later- career stages,” he said, with the trend being toward service busi­ness. “There are a lot of vital baby boomers who are full of knowl­edge and experience and they want to move on and do something dif-

ferent.”Deena Eberhart, of Lewisburg,

worked for a decade in project management and marketing for other companies.

“What I thought I wanted to do with my life, I didn’t want to do with my life,” the 44-year-old said. “I loved what I did, but I didn’t want to be a widget and work for someone else.”

Eberhart works in the same field, but as the owner of Sidekick Marketing Support, she now calls all the shots offering marketing advice to small business owners like herself.

Fledgling entrepreneurs need to

Please see START, Page D2

Want to start a business?

■ What: The Bucknell University SBDC will be hosting a “first step, pre­business” workshop.■ When: 10 a.m. to noon Nov. 14■ Where: Empire Beauty School, 30 Baldwin Blvd., Shamokin Dam.■ Price: The registration Is $25.

For more information, visit bucknell.edu/SBDC

Sales of new U.S. homes remain close to nine-year highBy Michelle JamriskoThe Washington Post

Purchases of new U.S. homes in September stayed close to an almost nine-year high, showing residential real estate was maintaining momen­tum heading into the quieter selling season.

Sales climbed 3.1 percent to a 593,000 annualized rate from an August pace that was weaker than initially reported, Commerce De­partment data showed Wednesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 600,000 pace in September. Purchases in June and July were revised lower.

Durable employment gains and historically low mortgage rates are combining to lift housing demand, paving the way for homebuilding to

contribute to economic growth. An acceleration in incomes and construc­tion of entry-level properties would help provide an additional spark for the market.

“Demand for new homes remains strong in response to employment growth, wage gains, positive demo­graphics and mortgage rates near all-time lows,” David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance in Columbus, Ohio, said in a research note after the report. “Residential construction will need to increase to support further sales growth.”

Estimates ranged from 518,000 to 662,000. The Commerce Department revised the August reading down to a 575,000 pace from a previously es­timated 609,000. July was revised to

Please see SALES, Page D2

Bloomberg file

Newly constructed houses stand in the Norton Commons sub­division of Louisville, Kentucky

Are you doing enough to protect your privacy?

WASHINGTON - It hadn't hap­pened in a while, so I guess it was time.

My credit card got compromised.Some crook tried to charge

$153.83, first with a $6.71 purchase at an inn and then a $147.12 transac­tion with a European airline I’d never heard of. The charges were denied and triggered a fraud alert. I closed the account.

Even if the card company hadn’t blocked the charges, I would have known about them just as quickly.I’ve set up alerts to ping me when­ever any purchase is made.

Still, even with the protections in place, I’m disturbed. I feel violated and vulnerable. I have no idea how the breach happened.

Arriving in my mail this month was the new issue of Consumer Reports. And coincidentally, the November cover story is “How to Protect Your Privacy.”

Consumer Reports is always my go-to source before I make a big pur­chase. The latest issue marks some major changes. There’s a new logo and the magazine has updated its rating charts. No more red and black circles, which confused some read­ers. (Previously, red meant “excel­lent,” although the color is typically a signal of danger. Now red means “poor” and green means “great.”)

The buying guides have also been revamped, and the Consumer Reports website now features interac­tive 360-degree videos, which are so cool. See a rundown of all the updates at consumerreports.org/ changes.

OK, back to the cover pack­age about protecting your privacy. Consumer Reports begins by taking you on a journey with a piece by Julia Angwin, a senior investigative reporter at ProPublica. In Angwin’s quest to lock down personal informa­tion, she uncovered leaks in her own life.

“The shift toward data as currency began somewhat innocuously,” she writes. “At first we simply accepted ads targeted to our search queries.” But now, “the trade-offs have become more extreme. We implicitly agree to have our movements followed both virtually, as we browse the web, and physically, as our phones transmit our locations.”

That observation made me think immediately of Kim Kardashian West, who was recently robbed at gunpoint in Paris. The thieves took millions of dollars’ worth of jewelry.

During a “60 Minutes” interview before the incident, the reality star said this about how social media can rob you — pun intended — of your privacy: “There are pitfalls — lack of privacy, loss of privacy — and that

Please see PROTECT, Page D2

The Daily Item - 10/27/2016 Page : D002

Copyright (c)2016 The Daily Item, Edition 10/27/2016October 27, 2016 8:22 am (GMT +4:00) Powered by TECNAVIA

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Page D2 The Daily Item / Thursday, October 27, 2016

Your MoneyChange in median household income

♦5%

♦4

+3

♦2

+1

2014-15

5.2°/

-1

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau THE WASHINGTON POST

Economists: Next president could see recessionNEXT, from Page D1

the 1980s under Ronald Rea­gan. That finding echoes an analysis of tax data released this summer by University of California-Berkeley econo­mist Emmanuel Saez, who found incomes for the vast majority of Americans grew at a 1990s-style clip in 2015.

Other data show jobs are being created at a better pace than any time during George W. Bush’s presidency.

The job-creation gains reflect continued strength in America’s service sec­tor, including high-skilled technology jobs and lower- skilled jobs in restaurants. The income gains flow from several sources, most nota­bly a tightening labor market, where employers are offering better pay and more hours to workers to fill job openings. Many economists also cite policy steps taken in recent years, including state and local initiatives to raise the minimum wage.

No growthThe current economy is far

from roaring on all measures, of course. The most notable disappointment is economic growth, which averaged about 2.2 percent a year from 2013- 15 and is doing even worse this year. That’s well below the 1980s and 1990s.

“Normally after a recession ends, ... you see growth on average about 5 percent” a year, said Beth Ann Bovino, the U.S. chief economist for S&P Global Ratings. “We never saw that.”

Millions of Americans in prime working age, mean­while, have yet to start look­ing for work again after leav­ing the labor force during or after the recession. Many lower-income and middle- class families have not rebuilt the wealth they lost in the re­cession. And the typical U.S.

household still earns less than it did in 1999, a high-point.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has accentuated those nega­tives when campaigning on the economy. In last week's presidential debate he called the latest employment report, which showed the economy adding 156,000 jobs in Sep­tember, “anemic” and said the economy was “dying” amid slow growth.

“Look, our country is stag­nant,” Trump said. “We’ve lost our jobs. We’ve lost our businesses.”

The Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, has pressed a more upbeat view, prais­ing Obama for nurturing the recovery but stressing work­ers still need more help from policymakers.

“We are heartened by what we see,” said Jacob Leiben- luft, a senior adviser to Clin­ton. “It provides a good foun­dation to build off. But we see the remaining challenge: Many families feel anxiet­ies and squeezes that are not imagined. They are real.”

Past presidentsReagan’s approval ratings

hit their lowest point in 1983, just after the trough of a re­cession that plagued his first term. But they rebounded when the economy rocketed upward later that year, and he won reelection in a 1984 landslide.

His successor, George H.W. Bush, was less fortunate. He enjoyed a 90 percent ap­proval rating in early 1991, as measured by Gallup, on the strength of America’s success in the Persian Gulf War. But his popular support crumbled as the economy struggled to rebound from a recession that ended in the spring of that year. Median household in­comes fell in 1991 and 1992, and Clinton ousted Bush after one term.

Sales of new U.S. homes remain close to nine-year highSALES, from Page D1

1629,000 rate, still leaving it it the fastest since November 2007.

The revisions over the previous three months un­derscore the data’s volatility, ane reason economists prefer to look at longer term trends. The report said there was 90 percent confidence the change in sales last month ranged from a 13.1 percent drop to a

19.3 percent increase.The pickup in September

demand was helped by an 8.6 percent gain in the Midwest and a 3.4 percent increase in the South. Sales also rose in the Northeast and fell 4.5 per­cent in the West.

The supply of homes fell to 4.8 months, from 4.9 months in August. There were 235,000 new houses on the market at the end of Septem­ber, little changed from the previous two months.

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be able to identify their niche, what problems they’re trying to solve and how they plan to market themselves, she said.

“Read everything about what you want to do and follow on Twitter the people who are doing what you want to do,” said Eberhart. “And, talk to the SBDC.”

With the support of her hus­band and the SBDC, Eberhart set off on her own three months ago and is already on the verge of being profitable, well ahead of her one-year goal.

“It’s all about experience,” she said, attributing her suc­cess to her background and un­derstanding of the challenges facing entrepreneurs. “A lot of people like me in their 30s and 40s have decided the corporate structure isn’t for us. We want to be the master of our own ship.”

After raising three children and retiring from law enforce­ment, Jeff Diggan, 48, didn’t want to work for someone else again, either, so he created a luxury chauffeur business.

“I want to be accountable for the success and failure,” he said.

Certain his business idea would serve an untapped mar­ket, in May the Milton native launched Blue Line Secure Transportation Sevices, a li­censed luxury limo service, with veteran law enforcement employed as drivers.

“We’re all professionals and at the perfect age. Not too old, but we have the maturity,” said Diggan.

Business has been increas­ing each month, with customers ranging from UGI Sunbury and Panda Hummel Station offi­cials, professionals performing at venues in Williamsport and Lewisburg and local travelers who want to avoid the hassle of driving to metropolitan air­ports.

Diggan is looking to expand the business to include large groups, including wedding par­ties and proms. In addition to his three luxury limousines, he and his drivers are licensed to drive private, rented or corpo­rate vehicles.

Like Diggan and Eberhart, Sitko was confident that she

Rings by Jessica Sitko of

could make her business a suc­cess before relocating to Lew­isburg in 2012.

“I ran it as a sideline since 2008 and knew it was a proven business before I left my job,” Sitko said.

By the time she turned Trade - markAntiques.com into a full­time venture, the business had a strong online following and today it has 34,000 Instagram followers.

Byrum said all three entre­preneurs are demonstrating that small businesses can be suc­cessful in rural Pennsylvania.

“New entrepreneurship is boundaryless,” he said. “People don’t have to leave (the Valley) to get a job. They can reach the globe from anywhere.”

■ Email comments to mmoore@dailyitem. com. Follow Marcia on Twitter @marciamoore4

Justin Engle/The Daily Item

An antique conversion ring made by Jessica Sitko of Trademark Antiques.

Are you doing enough to protect your privacy?PROTECT, from Page D1

might not be for everyone. For me, I can handle it.”

Even if you aren’t flaunting your affluence online as the Kardashians do, you’re still likely posting things that leave you exposed.

Police have warned folks against posting about vaca­tions online while you’re away or even before you leave. You’re broadcasting that no one will be home.

Angwin points out research that made me rethink some­thing that I do often. You’ve all gotten that screen with privacy-policy information and, like me, you probably just click “Accept” without read­ing through it. Researchers at two universities found that 74 percent of people who joined what was actually a staged social media network either didn’t read the privacy policy or didn’t read it carefully be­cause, in accepting the terms, users literally agreed to give up their firstborn child.

“Even if we read all those policies, we still couldn’t accurately weigh our privacy trade-offs,” Angwin writes. “We don’t know what the data will cost us in the future.”

For a year, Angwin decided to stay connected online — but in a limited capacity

that disconnected some of her data. It wasn’t as hard as she had thought. She started where we all should: updating all her software.

Come on, you all get legiti­mate security-update remind­ers or notifications — as opposed to phishing attempts. And how long does it take you before you give in and do it? I’ll be honest. I procrastinate, partly because they can take a long time and I don’t want my online work to be interrupted.

You may not want to go as far as Angwin did — she stopped using Linkedln and Facebook — but you can remove some of your personal information. I don’t answer all the personal questions that some sites and apps encourage me to, such as where I went to high school or my birthdate.

Get the new Consumer Reports and follow the many steps Angwin took. The issue also offers 66 ways to take control over your data. The first is to check if your data is on sale on the web. Go to haveibeenpwned.com.

I got weary just reading through all the steps. But go through anyway and do try some of the things Consumer Reports suggests.

Resistance is not futile.

■ Readers can write to Michelle Singletary do The

Washington Post, 1301 K St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20071. Her email address is michelle. singletary@washpost. com. Follow her on Twitter (@SingletaryM) or Facebook (www. facebook. com/MichelleSingletary). Comments and questions

are welcome, but due to the volume of mail, personal responses may not be possible. Please also note comments or questions may be used in a future column, with the writer’s name, unless a specific request to do otherwise is indicated.

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