penn state spring admissions conference may 24, 2011 sheryl sobiesiak sr. educational manager
TRANSCRIPT
Demographics: Shifts in Numbers and Approaches
Penn State Spring Admissions ConferenceMay 24, 2011Sheryl SobiesiakSr. Educational Manager
The Cost of Doing “Business”
Demographics Across the Country, Region, State, Regions within PA
Student Choices, College Completion, Finances
To Change or Not To Change?
Agenda
The Cost to RecruitApplicant Admitted Enrolled
Total $578.08 $836.49 $2,366.08
Control
Public 342.54 470.21 1,002.02
Private 668.23 976.67 2,894.65
Enrollment
Fewer than 3,000 710.79 1,042.88 2,963.46
3,000 to 9,999 365.68 512.47 1,743.22
10,000 or more 293.27 389.79 841.30
Selectivity
Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 422.01 1,072.23 3,384.62
50 to 70% 555.45 875.30 2,451.30
71 to 85% 611.64 769.29 2,138.28
More than 85% 642.03 774.06 2,053.44
Yield
Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students 559.13 836.70 3,030.48
30 to 45% 566.12 813.55 2,303.32
46 to 60% 503.41 834.43 1,756.79
More than 60% 830.31 955.80 1,535.16
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008
Percent Change in High School Graduates, 2004-2005 to 2014-15
Average Annual Percent Change in White Non-Hispanic Public HS
Graduates, 2005-15
Average Annual Percent Change in Hispanic Public HS Graduates 2005-15
Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door , 2008
Number of High School Graduates, 1994-2022: United States
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public Total
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: Midwest
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public Total
Source: WICHE/The College Board
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: New England
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public Total
Number of High School Graduates, 1994-2022: West
Source: WICHE/The Colllege Board
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public Total
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: Southwest
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public Total
Number of High School Graduates, 1993-2022: South
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public Total
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: Middle States
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public Total
Source: WICHE/College Board
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: Delaware
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public
Source: WICHE/College Board
Source: WICHE/College Board
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: Maryland
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/ Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non- Hispanic Hispanic White non- Hispanic Non-Public Total
Source: WICHE/College Board
Source: WICHE/College Board
Number of High School Graduates, 1993-2022: District of Columbia
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non- Hispanic Hispanic White non- Hispanic Non-Public Total
Source: WICHE/College Board
Source: WICHE/College Board
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: New York
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/ Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non- Hispanic Hispanic White non- Hispanic Non-Public Total
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: New Jersey
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/ Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non- Hispanic Hispanic White non- Hispanic Non-Public Total
NJ-Projections by Geomarket
EPS Geomarkets EPS Code Proj Grad Chg Pct 2008-2011 Proj Grad 2008-2009 Proj Grad 2009-2010 Proj Grad 2010-2011
Bergen Co NJ10 3.1 10,134 10,141 10,257
Camden & Burlington Co NJ 2 -4.7 10,934 10,824 10,575
Essex & Southern Passaic Co NJ 8 -7.3 12,074 11,953 11,526
Hudson Co NJ 9 9.1 5,449 5,638 5,735
Jersey Shore & Pinelands NJ 3 -1.5 11,303 11,098 11,140
Middlesex Co NJ 4 -.2 6,854 7,048 7,190
Monmouth Co NJ 5 2.1 9,084 9,253 9,275
Morris & Northern Passaic Co NJ11 3 6,626 6,702 6,937
Somerset & Mercer Co NJ 6 .4 6,884 6,934 7,171
Southern Jersey NJ 1 2.5 5,217 5,065 5,169
Sussex, Warren, & Hunterdon Co NJ12 4.7 5,425 5,433 5,635
Union Co NJ 7 -3.8 6,721 6,828 6,664
Source: WICHE/College Board
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: Pennsylvania
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public
PA-Projections by Geomarket
EPS Geomarkets EPS CodeProj Grad Chg Pct
2008-2011Proj Grad 2008-2009 Proj Grad 2009-2010
Proj Grad 2010-2011
Allegheny Co PA12 -10.7 11,699 11,472 10,807
Bucks Co PA 1 -3.9 7,549 7,360 7,384
Chester Co PA 2 1.2 5,117 5,310 5,240
Delaware Co PA 3 -.6 5,150 5,054 5,015
Lehigh Valley PA 6 .9 17,850 17,938 17,923
Montgomery Co PA 4 -1.1 8,226 7,976 7,992
North Central Pennsylvania PA 8 -9.4 7,573 7,460 7,075
Northeastern Pennsylvania PA 7 -.5 6,679 6,532 6,578
Northwestern Pennsylvania PA 9 -6.5 7,992 7,844 7,523
Philadelphia Co PA 5 -.2 11,361 11,592 11,499
Southern Pennsylvania (East) PA10 -3 21,957 21,019 20,794
Southern Pennsylvania (West) PA11 -6.8 5,554 5,420 5,301
Southwestern PA (w/o Allegheny Co) PA13 -.8 15,939 15,756 15,762
Number of High School Graduates, 1992 to 2022: Florida
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Non-Public
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: California
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/ Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non- Hispanic Hispanic White non- Hispanic Non-Public Total
Number of High School Graduates, 1992-2022: Texas
Source: WICHE/The College Board
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
American Indian/ Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non- Hispanic Hispanic White non- Hispanic Non-Public Total
Who Goes Where?
41.1%43.4%
57.7%
36.7%40.1%
51.0%
58.9%56.6%
42.3%
63.3%59.9%
49.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
AmericanIndian
Asian/PacificIslander
Black Hispanic White TOTAL
2 Year 4 Year
Percent of Total Postsecondary School Enrollment
for Each Ethnic Group by Institution Type 2002NCES. The Condition of Education 2005
Bachelor’s Degree Attainment25- to 29-year-olds 2005
12
61.5
17.211.3
33.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
American Indian
Asian African American
Hispanic White
Source: NCES. Status and Trends in the Education of Racial and Ethnic Minorities, Table 26.2, 2007
All students = 28%
Our Challenge
30
The Challenge
100
For every 100 9th
graders…
69
graduate from high
school
enter college
42return to
college for their
sophomore year
28earn a
bachelor’s degree
within six years
20
Source: The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems Progress & Completion data
37
Distribution of Full-Time Undergraduates at Four-Year Institutions by Published Tuition and Fees,
2010-11
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2010, Figure 2.
Average Annual Percentage Increases in Inflation-Adjusted Published Prices by Decade, 1980-81 to
2010-11
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2010, Figure 4.
Percentage Growth in Mean Family Income by Quintile
in Constant 2009 Dollars, 1979–1989, 1989–1999, and 1999–2009
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2010, Figure 16A.
Median Family Income by Selected Characteristics, 2009
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2010, Figure 16B.
Percentage Distribution of Enrollment of Full-Time Undergraduate Students and All Undergraduate
Students in Degree-Granting Programs, by Sector, Fall 2008
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2010, Figure 18.
Recruitment Stage
How will you deal with the increase/decrease in number of high school graduates?
Territory management How consistent are your approaches with the
values of new populations? More emphasis on family, need for personal attention,
multi-lingual Use of technology
How will you accommodate students who may not be college-ready?
Importance of outreach, academic preparation
Application Stage• How many students can you admit?
• Increase selectivity?• Soft applicants?• Yield?
• How do your policies affect under-represented students?
• Requirements, deadlines
• How will your selection process change to ensure meeting institutional objectives?
• Definition of merit• Institutional interests
Financial Aid Stage
How do you communicate with students regarding financial aid?
Issues of affordability/financial literacy Consistent voice for institution
How will you control expenditures? Pricing strategy and budget implications Impact on admissions
How do your current financial aid awarding policies and packaging parameters affect students?
Leveraging
Questions &
Discussion
