climate change fingerprint

Parmesan & Yohe 2003

fingerprint paradigm brilliant

simplification

global change is correlational

IPCC

actual temperature change

IPCC 2014 values

predicted temperature change

IPCC 2014 values

species change

synthesis & consilience

two competing domains to infer species change

biologists economists

weakpersistent

important now

resolution

test responses to climate change in two ways

biologists = meta-analysis

biologists = meta-analysis

shifts in range or distributions

99 species of birds upwards 6.1km/decade

biologists = meta-analysis

172 species of plants & animals earlier by 2.3 days

677 species, 62% towards spring advancement

biologists = meta-analysis

893 species, only 27% had stable distributions

434 species, 80% shifted matching climate change

economists = probabilistic

proportion of species that do not conform to climate change

binomial probability model

economists = probabilistic

economists = probabilistic

economists = probabilistic

biologists economists

weakpersistent

important now

1570 species, 95% confidence of a global climate change fingerprint

the overall effects of most confounding factors decline with increasing numbers of species/systems studied

IPCC 2014 likelihood of staying below a specific temperature

only below 4C is likely

fingerprint of climate change viable approach