peak oil – myth or menace?
DESCRIPTION
Peak Oil – Myth or Menace?. Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton. Chautauqua Course, May 24-26, 2007. US-48 Production. Alaska to the Rescue?. US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov. US. Indonesia. UK. Iran?. Venezuela. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Peak Oil – Myth Peak Oil – Myth or Menace?or Menace?
Models to help understand Models to help understand peak oilpeak oil
Dr. Robert J. BrechaDr. Robert J. Brecha
University of DaytonUniversity of DaytonChautauqua Course, May 24-26, 2007
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US-48 ProductionUS-48 Production
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n,
Mil
lio
n b
arre
ls/y
ear
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Alaska to the Rescue?Alaska to the Rescue?
US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov
United States Oil Production
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400018
57
1867
1877
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1927
1937
1947
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1977
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2007
Year
Mill
ion
bar
rels
per
yea
r
Alaska
US-48
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Many Countries Have Many Countries Have Peaked!Peaked!
US
UK
Indonesia
Iran?
http://www.bp.com
Venezuela
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Association for the Study of Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)Peak Oil (ASPO)
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OPEC Proved Crude Oil OPEC Proved Crude Oil ReservesReserves
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90019
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bl
rese
rves
UAE
Venezuela
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates
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GaussianGaussian
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n b
arr
els
pe
r y
ea
r
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Gaussian Fit to US Gaussian Fit to US ProductionProduction
Gaussian Production(quadratic fit)
y = -0.0003x2 + 1.1875x - 1167.5
R2 = 0.9898
0
0.5
1
1.5
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2.5
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1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Lo
gar
ith
m o
f p
rod
uct
ion
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Peak ModelsPeak Models
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Bill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
ye
ar
BP
USGS
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Cumulative Discovery and Cumulative Discovery and ProductionProduction
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US Geological Survey US Geological Survey EstimatesEstimates
www.ihs.com
Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)
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Rough Outline of the Rough Outline of the FutureFuture
USGS published reserve estimates in USGS published reserve estimates in 19981998
EIA uses those estimates, along with EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future consumption patterns to predict future growthgrowth
A gap between predicted demand and A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2030predicted production appears by 2030
Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources“unidentified unconventional” sources
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Logistic CurveLogistic CurveLogistic Curve
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Gb
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tota
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Logistic Curve
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1980 Prediction
Logistic Curve
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Gb
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ion
“Economic” argument: We will alwaysfind more and increase ultimate recovered amount
= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)dQdt
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Problem with Logistic Problem with Logistic CurvesCurves
At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar.
There are too many free fitting parameters
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The Point Remains …The Point Remains …US 48 Oil Production
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Th
ou
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er d
ay
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Hubbert LinearizationHubbert Linearization
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568
Q (Gbbl)
P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)
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HL - TexasHL - TexasUS 48 Hubbert Linearization
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0 50 100 150 200 250
Q (Gbbl)
P/Q
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HL - WorldHL - World
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ar-1
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Q (Gb)
P/Q
(ye
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One Prediction (1998)One Prediction (1998)
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
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Duncan and Youngquist Duncan and Youngquist PredictionsPredictions
Peaked prior to 1997Peaked prior to 1997 14 14 countriescountries
Recovered from peak after 1997Recovered from peak after 1997 0 countries0 countries
Predicted to peak 1998-2005Predicted to peak 1998-2005 16 16 countriescountries
Actually peaked between 1998-Actually peaked between 1998-20052005
11 11 countriescountries
Predicted to peak after 2005Predicted to peak after 2005 13 13 countriescountries
Predicted to peak after 2005, Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peakedbut have already peaked
2 countries2 countries
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Finding NorwaysFinding Norways
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
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Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”
2/3 !
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Keep Watching…Keep Watching…World Oil Supply
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/d
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100
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SummarySummary
Believe “official predictions”Believe “official predictions” Gaussian fittingGaussian fitting Logistic modelLogistic model
CumulativeCumulative YearlyYearly LinearizationLinearization
Country-by-country watchCountry-by-country watch Monthly dataMonthly data