peak oil 2005-2008 stay connected matt mushalik (mieaust, cpeng) [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
1973 oil crisis: Sunday driving bans in Europe
70/71 5.8%
71/72 5.6%
72/73 8.9%
73/74 0.3%
74/75 -4.8%
2nd oil crisis 1979
Queues in Harare
Get your petrol quota and use your motor bike
Why peak oil?
UK in terminal decline
Alpha Piper Accident July 1988
3 main causes for peak oil:
• Peak in fields• Drive for growth• New, smaller
fields cannot stop decline
1
2
3
Russian Oil Peak
Volga-Ural peaked mid 70sTotal mid 80s (West Siberia)Chernobyl 1986èEnergy double whammyExports end 2020-2030
Global Peak Oil
IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008
Crude peak started May 2005
Russia is peaking, Saudi Arabia lost swing role
OPEC crude double peak
20% of reserves => 45% of global production
WA crude and condensate production
Financial crisis and peak oil
Peak oil
Accumulated
debt
Expectation of growth
Banking & credit crisis Recession
Oil market failure OECD demand down
Lower oil prices and OPEC production cuts
High gas prices in US car dependent suburbia and exurbia; high inflation
Subprime mortgage Airline and car industry crisis in difficulties falling house prices
Less investments to offset 5 mb/d pa decline
Oil production decline; next oil price shock / shortage
Marginal barrel costs US$ 70-80
Marginal barrel costs US $70-80
Paleo climate: We are outside natural change Last 450 K years:natural climate change
(orbital changes + CO2 feedback)
Temp. Sea level CO2
Last
warm
+ 1 C + 2-3m 300
ppm
Ice
age
- 5 C - 120 m 180
ppm
385 ppm: back millions of years
Tipping points & surprises
National Academy of Sciences of the USA
We conclude that the greatest (and clearest) threat is to the Arctic with summer sea-ice loss likely to occur long before (and potentially contribute to) Greeland icesheet melt.
Tipping elements in the tropics, the boreal zone, and West Antarctica are surrounded by large uncertainty and, given their potential sensitivity, constitute candidates for surprising society.
Maslowski: Arctic summer sea ice free by 2013
NASA climatologist James Hansen
If we look at the history of the Earth, we know that at the warmest interglacial periods, which were probably less than 1 degree Celsius warmer than today, it was still basically the same planet. Sea level was perhaps a few metres higher.
But if we go back to the time when the Earth was 2 or 3 degrees Celsius warmer, that's about 3 million years ago, sea level was about 25 metres higher, so that tells us we had better keep additional warming less than about one degree.
And the other piece of evidence is not from the history of the Earth but from looking at the ice sheets themselves, and what we see is that the disintegration of ice sheets is a wet process and it can proceed quite rapidly. We see that the ice streams have doubled in their speed on Greenland in the last few years and even more concern is West Antarctica because it's now losing mass at about the same rate as Greenland, and West Antarctica, the ice sheet is sitting on rock that is below sea level. So it is potentially much more in danger of collapsing and so we have both the evidence on the ice sheets and from the history of the Earth and it tells us that we're pretty close to a tipping point, so we've got to be very concerned about the ice sheets.
www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s1870955.htm
Action #1: All coastal Councils to send delegation to State/Federal Environment and Climate Change Ministers
Every coal ship = one nail in the coffin of coastal cities
Prof. Rahmstorf, PIK, up to 1.4 m
Prof. Tad Pfeffer, up to 2m
Approved by Peter Garrett; all AU
motorists must walk to offset emissions just from stage 1
Time line of events determines strategy
• 2010 More oil price spikes and/or global oil shortages• 2011 Mexico’s net oil exports approach zero• 2012 Australia’s oil import crisis starts• 20?? China peak oil• 2013 Arctic summer sea ice disappears• 20?? Oil war in the Middle East• 2015 Saudi fossil water exhausted• 20?? Mother of all bubbles bursts: OPEC’s oil reserves• 2015 Iran’s oil exports end; social unrest• 2016 WA crude oil at 10% of current levels• 2020 Different Middle East• =>> very limited time, 5-10 years max. to prepare
Action # 2: No more business as usual
• Moratorium on oil dependent infrastructure: No Pacific Highway bypass and/or duplication to Grafton
• Review all growth plans; most of them may not be sustainable (financially, environmentally, fuel supplies)
• no more car dependent subdivisions; allow 2nd floor extensions of single story homes
• Avoid high rises forced upon Councils by unrealistic population targets of State government; immigration to be reduced (already happening)
• Keep agricultural land for local food production
• Car based shopping centres will have to be replaced with local corner shops
• Create jobs in food and renewable industry
Land lost for bypass
Land will be needed for local agricultural production when long distance transport of foodbreaks down
Land would also be fragmented by new road; natural drainage flows disturbed
Action #2: Biofuels to be used in agriculture
• All Australian sugarcane distilled into ethanol would yield 5 litres per week per car
• Don’t waste precious biofuels on private urban motorist
• Agriculture’s dependence on oil must be reduced
• Install E85 and bio diesel bowsers at rural filling stations for preferential use by those working in and for the agricultural sector
• Transport of food to cities will get absolute priority
Action #3: Develop compressed natural gas (CNG)
• For buses, trucks, construction and mining machinery• If this is not done with determination and urgency to a tight
timetable, everything will get bogged down in diesel shortages• LNG supplied by road tanker is quickest solution before any
pipeline arrives in Coffs Harbour• 250 vehicles minimum; $7 million for a 20 tonne per day
liquefaction plant, storage, transport and dispensing equipment (CNG and LNG)
Case study: Gosford City Council (CNG)
FLEET CHARACTERISTICS
• Approximately 90 vehicles
• Municipal application (17,000 km/year)
• Turnover of 10-12 years (for new gas trucks)
PARTNERSHIP DETAILS
• Partnership commenced in May 2004
• Vehicles commissioned in February 2005
VEHICLE DETAILS
• 5 ISUZU NPR 400 gas vehicles
• Spark ignited, dedicated natural gas vehicle engine
• OEM supply and support
• On-site CNG refuelling facility
PROJECT ASSESSMENT
• Marginal greenhouse outcomes(around 18% reduction)
• 22% fuel savings (vs diesel)
• Excellent operational performanceand low commissioning effort
• Marginally positive financial returns(i.e. low annual kilometres)
• Excerpt from: www.vta.com.au
LNG road tankers
Action #4: Lobby rail duplication & electrificationNight trains to replace domestic flights
Action #5: Car pooling and use of buses
1. Oil price spikes and/or shortages may come unexpectedly
2. So car pooling has to be organised and tested before crisis hits
3. Introduce car-free days to see how buses work
4. Only practical experience can uncover problems and help developing adaptation strategies
