peacebuilding and eastern democratic reconstruction polls

Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls

Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

Poll Report #5, January 2016 (Data from December 2015)

By Patrick Vinck, Phuong Pham, Tino Kreutzer Content:

p3. BURUNDI - Insecurity and violence in Burundi affect security and the economy in Uvira

p5.

INSECURITY – Perception of insecurity remains high in the cities of Goma, Beni, despite overall improvement

p7. WEAPONS - The presence of firearms for protection is associated with insecurity and lack of trust in the police

p8. DETAILED ANALYSIS - efforts against sexual

violence are perceived positively, but remain relatively unknown

p14. KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS

About the Poll About the Project

Results for this poll are based on 3,825 interviews conducted in December 2015 with randomly selected adults in the following cities and territories:

Province / District Territoire / Ville Echantillon

North Kivu City of Goma 221 City of Beni 292 City of Butembo 301 Lubero 216 Masisi 240 Rutshuru 219 South Kivu City of Bukavu 274 Idjwi 216 Mwenga 212 Shabunda 216 Uvira 235 City of Uvira 304 Ituri City of Bunia 290 Aru 180 Irumu 192 Mahagi 217 TOTAL 3,825

(Error margin of ± 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level) For more information, visit www.peacebuildingdata.org/drc Or contact [email protected]

This survey is the fifth in a series of surveys that will be conducted to provide reliable data and analysis on peace, security, justice and reconstruction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project is a joint initiative of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with MONUSCO Civil Affairs. HHI is responsible for the data collection, the independent data analysis and report writing, working with partners such as l'Université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs, Université Catholique de Bukavu et Université de Bunia.

Publications :

• Poll Report #5, January 2016 (Data from December 2015)

• Poll Report #4, November 2015 (Data from September - October 2015)

• Poll Report #3, August 2015 (Data from June-July 2015)

• Poll Report #2, June 2015 (Data from March-May 2015)

• Poll Report #1, March 2015 (Data from December 2014)

• Baseline, May 2013 (Data from December 2013)

A project of

In collaboration with

With support from

© Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Program

The information provided and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners

Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 3

BURUNDI - Insecurity and violence in Burundi affect security and the economy in Uvira The political and security crisis in Burundi has resulted in the displacement of nearly 20,000 Burundians toward South Kivu, mainly in the Uvira region. Burundian rebels are also allegedly present on Congolese territory. The Burundi crisis is seen as a potential source of insecurity in eastern Congo. In Uvira territory, almost one in three (29%) think the Burundi crisis has had a negative impact on safety at night, and more than one in five (22%) argued that the crisis has had a negative effect on safety during the day. The percentage of people thinking that the crisis has had a negative effect on safety is lower in the city of Uvira compared to the rest of the territoire. However, the economic impact of the crisis is strongly felt in both the city and the rest of the territoire. Between a quarter and a third of respondents in the city of Uvira think the crisis negatively affects product availability (28%) and price (32%). The percentage is similar to the Uvira territory (30% and 28% consider a negative effect on the availability of products and prices, respectively).

Impact of the Burundi crisis

Impact on security during the day Impact on security at night City of Uvira

Territoire of Uvira

City of Uvira

Territoire of Uvira

Impact on market prices Impact on availability of products on the market

City of Uvira

Territoire of Uvira

City of Uvira

Territoire of Uvira

Data from December 2015

The perceived impact of the crisis in Burundi on security and its economic impact vary by gender of respondents. Overall, in Uvira (city and country), the sense of security in daily activities is more common among women (75%) than among men (64%). Considering security at night, 71% of women say they

Negative impact No impact Other response

10%

88%

1%22%

72%

6% 13%

85%

2% 29%

66%

4%

32%

68%

1% 28%

67%

5% 28%

67%

5% 30%

65%

5%


walk alone in security against only 49% of men. These results are different from provincial trends or women generally feel less safe than men at night.

Considering the effects of the crisis in Burundi on security, men are more frequently negative than women - 29% of men think that their safety in daily activities has deteriorated, against 10% of women; and 40% of men feel their safety to walk alone at night has deteriorated, against only 12% of women. There are fewer differences between men and women regarding the perception of the economic impact of the crisis in Burundi - 29% of men and 29% of women think that the crisis has had a negative impact on market prices, and 31% of men and 27% of women argue that the crisis has had a negative effect on the availability of products on the market.

Sense of security in Uvira (city and territoire - % safe – very safe)

Activités quotidiennes Marcher seul la nuit

Impact of the Burundi crisis by gender (city and territoire)

Impact on security during the day Impact on security at night Women

Men

Women

Men

Impact on market prices Impact on availability of products on the market

Women

Men

Women

Men

Data from December 2015

75%64% 70% 71%

49%60%

Femme Homme Total Femme Homme Total

Activites quotidiennes Marche seul la nuit

Negative impact No impact Other response

10%

83%

7%29%

69%

2% 12%

82%

6%40%

59%

2%

29%

66%

5%29%

69%

2%27%

67%

6%31%

67%

2%


INSECURITY – Perception of insecurity remains high in the cities of Goma, Beni, despite overall improvement Persistent conflict and the presence of armed groups in eastern Congo contribute to a feeling of permanent insecurity among the population. However, in everyday life, it is the fear of thefts and assaults (28%) and the presence of bandits (20%) that are the main direct causes of insecurity. Among 14 situations examined, the situation in which respondents felt least safe is to walk alone at night. Overall the sense of security walking alone at night has improved in eastern Congo over the last 2 years (44% to 53% between December 2013 and December 2015), especially in South Kivu (38% to 55%). The sense of security is the lowest in North Kivu (December 2015 - 46%) compared to other provinces. It is particularly low in the cities of Goma (Dec. 2015 - 14%) and Beni (Dec. 2015 -10%).

Sense of security walking alone at night (% safe – very safe)

Provincial trends

Trends in main urban centers (cities)

Data from December 2013 to December 2015

43% 41%

41%

46% NK

38%40%

53%55% SK

52%

62% 63%

60% Ituri

44%46% 51%

53% TOTAL

Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015

14% Goma

10% Ville de Beni

47% Butembo

31% Bukavu

42% Bunia

Dec. 2013 Dec. 2014 Mar. 2015 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015


The provincial-level analysis of the sense of safety masks significant differences between women and men. Data collected between September and December 2015 show that the relationship between gender and sense of security is not simple. In North Kivu, women often feel more secure than men in their daily activities (74% v. 68%). In South Kivu, these percentages are similar across gender (80%), and in Ituri, women feel less frequently safe than men in their daily activities (74% v. 85%). In all provinces, women feel less safe than men walking at night, although there are differences by territoires.

Compared with men, women are more frequently trusting of the police to ensure their security in South Kivu (55% v. 35%) and Ituri (67% v. 51%). In North Kivu, the difference between men and women is not significant (57% v. 59%).

Sense of security (% safe – very safe) and trust in the police (% trust) by gender and province

Data from September to December 2015

Women

74%

80%

74%

76%

41%

53%

52%

48%

57%

55%

67%

59%

Men

68%

80%

85%

76%

51%

58%

69%

58%

59%

35%

51%

49%

Total

71%

80%

79%

76%

46%

55%

60%

53%

58%

45%

59%

54%

NK

SK

Ituri

TOTAL

NK

SK

Ituri

TOTAL

NK

SK

Ituri

TOTAL

Sens

e of

secu

rity

daily

act

iviti

es

Sens

e of

secu

rity

wa

lkin

g al

one

atni

ght

Trus

t in

the

polic

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ens

ure

secu

rity


WEAPONS - The presence of firearms for protection is associated with insecurity and lack of trust in the police

The conflicts in eastern DRC have had as a corollary a major proliferation of small arms among the population. According to a 2011 study,1 about half or more of respondents had heard gun shots in their village / neighborhood during the six months period prior to the survey. According to the same survey, 72% of respondents indicated the likely presence or some small-caliber weapons in their neighborhood or village, but only 9% acknowledged the presence of small arms in the household.

According to the polls from September and December 2015, 16% of respondents acknowledged that firearms were used in their village or neighborhood for reasons of defense and protection. The presence of firearms for protection reasons was mentioned more frequently by men (22%) compared to women (9%), and in Fizi (36%), Kalehe (33%) and Irumu (31%) compared to the other territoires. The results also suggest that the presence of firearms for protection reasons is associated with feelings of insecurity. Among respondents feeling safe walking at night, 15% reported the presence of firearms. Among respondents not feeling safe walking at night, 23% reported the presence of firearms. Similarly trust in the police is associated with a lower presence of firearms. These results suggest that enhancing the sense of security and trust in the police may be associated with a reduction in the presence of weapons.

Presence of weapons (% reporting presence) by gender and province

and association with sense of security and trust in the police


1 Berghezan G, Zeebroek X (2011). Armes Légères à l’Est du Congo: Enquête sur la perception de l’insécurité, Bruxelles,

Editions GRIP

9%

22%

16%14%

17% 16% 15% 16%

23%

14%

22%

Women Men NK SK Ituri Total Est Safe Mean Notsafe

Yes No

Gender Province Sense of security Trust police forsecurity


DETAILED ANALYSIS - efforts against sexual violence are perceived positively, but remain relatively unknown

The incidence of sexual violence during the 12 months preceding the interview revealed by the polls is low - about 14 per 1,000 among women and 10 per 1,000 among men. In one-third of the cases, women reported multiple experiences, and in two out of five cases, firearms were used. Compared to these results, multiple experiences are less common among men (one in eight case), and the use of weapons is also mentioned less frequently than among women (one in eight case). The incidence rate documented here is lower than other rates documented in eastern Congo, ranging from 44 per 1,000 in South Kivu to 64 per 1000 in North Kivu.2 This can be explained by differences in definition and the interview format which does not facilitate engagement on sensitive and personal topics, resulting in an underestimate of the true incidence. However, the issue of sexual violence was explored in more details, directly and indirectly, during the December 2015 poll.

This latest poll shows that of all the cities and territoires covered in December 2015,3 39% of respondents believe that the fight against sexual violence is a priority of the government, and the same percentage, 39%, consider positively the performance of the government in fighting sexual violence.

Perception of the government ‘s performances in the fight against sexual violence and other areas (% positive)*

* Only for the territoires covered in December 2015 - Data from December 2015

Although the percentage positively judging the government's efforts in the fight against sexual violence is relatively low, it is higher than the perception of government performance in all other areas covered, including peacekeeping efforts (28% of perception positive), unification of the people (30%)

2 Peterman A, Palermo T, Bredenkamp C. 2011. Estimates and Determinants of Sexual Violence against Women in the

Democratic Republic of Congo. American journal of public health, 101(6), pp.1060-1067. 3 Les zones couvertes sont les villes de Goma, Beni, Butembo, Bukavu, Uvira, et Bunia, et les territoires de Lubero, Masisi,

Rutshuru, Idjwi, Mwenga, Shabunda, Uvira, Aru, Irumu, et Mahagi. La moyenne régionale pour les villes et territoires couverts est obtenue en utilisant un facteur de pondération qui ajuste le résultat pour les différences de de taille de la population entre strates.

39%

30%

30%

28%

13%

12%

12%

12%

Fight against sexual violence

Ensure security

Unite the different ethnic groups

Establish peace in eastern Congo

Improve the lives of the Congolese

Reduce poverty

Fight against corruption

Increase employment


and securing the population (30%), and significantly higher than the percentage of positive views on poverty reduction efforts (13%) or perception of the fight against corruption (12%) and on job creation (12%). Overall women perceive the government's efforts positively more frequently than men, but this difference is not significant with regard to the efforts against sexual violence.

The same poll examined the perception of performances of the police and the judiciary in their work with victims of sexual violence. The percentage viewing these efforts positively are 35% and 46% respectively. The percentage judging positively the efforts of the Government is similar (39%), which is higher than the percentage of respondents who trust the civilian justice system in general (31% for the areas sampled in December 2015), but lower than the percentage of people who trust the police to ensure security (53% for the areas sampled in December 2015).

Perception of the judiciary system’s efforts to ensure justice for victims of sexual violence

(% positive)*

Perception of the police’s efforts to investigate crimes of sexual violence

(% positive)*

Total

Total

Women Men Women Men

NK SK IT NK SK IT


The perception of efforts against sexual violence by the judiciary and the police are more positive among men (50% and 35% respectively) compared to women (42% and 33%, respectively). In terms of administrative divisions, perceptions are more frequently negative in the surveyed cities and territoires in South Kivu, especially considering the performance of the judicial system (36% against 48% in areas covered North Kivu, and 52 % in areas covered in Ituri). Police efforts are perceived positively most frequently in North Kivu (39% positive) compared Ituri (34%) and South Kivu (28%).

46% 35%

42% 50% 33% 36%

48% 36% 52% 39% 28% 34%


Across the areas sampled in December 2015, a majority of the population considers that the efforts of the judicial system in cases of sexual violence are better (29%) or similar (45%) compared to the previous year. Improved efforts of the judicial system in cases of sexual violence is most frequently noted in the territoires of Masisi (46%) and Rutshuru (50%). Conversely, this improvement over the previous year is less frequently noted in the territoires of Mahagi (32%) and Idjwi (32%). The efforts of the judicial system in addressing sexual violence are also often considered as better (30%) or similar (41%) to the efforts to address other crimes. The perception among women is however less frequently positive. Just 24% of women think that victims of sexual violence are better served today compared to last year against 35% of men and 64% of women think that victims of sexual violence are similarly or better served than other victims by the judicial system, compared to 78% of men.


compared to previous year *


compared to previous year *


compared to other crimes *


compared to other crimes*


Similarly, efforts of the police in addressing sexual violence are seen as better (30%) or similar (45%) compared to the previous year. Just 15% believe that these efforts are not as good as the last year, especially in the territories of Mahagi (33%) and Idjwi (30%). Improvement of police efforts in adressing sexual violence is most frequently noted in the territoires of Masisi 48%) and Rutshuru (60%). The police's efforts in addressing sexual violence are also considered as better (32%) or similar (37%) to the efforts for other crimes. The perception is different among women and men: 26% of women think that victims of sexual violence are better served today compared to last year against 35% of men and 64% of

Better, 29%

Worse, 16%Same, 45%

No response,

10%Better, 30%

Worse, 15%Same, 43%

No response,

12%

Better, 30%

Worse, 20%

Same, 41%

No response,

9%Better, 32%

Worse, 18%

Same, 39%

No response,

11%


women think that victims of sexual violence are similarly or better served by the judicial system than other victims, compared to 79% of men.

Despite progress, challenges remain. Only half of those surveyed in September and December 2015 4 considered that victims of sexual violence may have their cases heard by courts (52%). It is in South Kivu that the possibility of such cases was the least frequently noted (44%). When people were asked to judge the impartiality of justice for sexual violence, only 30% felt the judiciary was impartial in such case, and 43% spoke of partial justice, in favor of men. Women were more frequently negative in their judgment of the efforts of the judiciary to ensure justice for victims of sexual violence compared to men. However, men considered the judicial system to be partial (48%) more frequently than women (39%). These findings suggest that, for women, the negative perception of the efforts of the judiciary for justice for sexual violence is not necessarily linked to a perception of bias, but rather to other elements such as the protection of victims, stigmatization or lack of results. These will be explored in more detail in future polls.

Perception of the judicial system in relation to sexual violence

Women:

Men:


According to the December 2015 poll,5 efforts in the fight against sexual violence are perceived positively relative to other government efforts. However, major campaigns and efforts remain little known among the population, including the work of the office of the personal representative of the Head of State against sexual violence (14% of respondents heard of this office), and the campaign "break the silence" (17% heard of the campaign). These initiatives are generally less known in Ituri. The

4 All cities and territoires in eastern DRC 5 Cities of Goma, Beni, Butembo, Bukavu, Uvira, et Bunia, and territoires of Lubero, Masisi, Rutshuru, Idjwi, Mwenga, Shabunda,

Uvira, Aru, Irumu, et Mahagi.

30%

43%

27%

Justice is impartial Justice is partial /for the men

Don't know -No reponse

36% 39%25%



23%48%

29%




results suggest no differences between men and women in the level of knowledge of these initiatives. However, it should be noted that women have on average a lower level of education than men, and the educational level was significantly associated with the level of information on the fight against sexual violence initiatives: Among those with a high school degree or higher, 24% have heard about the work of the office of the personal representative of the Head of State against sexual violence, compared to 10% among those with little (incomplete primary) or no education.

Heard about the work of the office of the personal representative of the Head of State in the fight

against sexual violence (% yes) *

Heard of the campaign "Break the silence" (% yes)*

Total

Total

NK SK IT NK SK IT


Finally, the September and December 2015 polls covering all cities and territories confirm the acceptability - at least in theory – of the acceptance of the return of victims of sexual violence in the community; a majority (86%) would agree to the return to their community of a victim of sexual violence, and the same percentage (87%) would agree to the return to their household of a victim of sexual violence. The percentage of people agreeing to the return of a woman victim of sexual violence decreases in the hypothesis that she had a child because of the violation (81%) or in case of health consequences in the form of illness or injury (77 %).

In general, women more often accept the return of other women victims of sexual violence than men, whether in the community or household. The differences between men and women are more marked considering the return to the home of a female victim of sexual violence that led to the birth of a child (86% of women agree against 77% of men), or leading to illnesses or injuries (82% of women agree against 72% of men). The difference in attitude between genders is strongest in Ituri. For example, 80% of women in Ituri accept the return in the household of a woman victim of sexual violence that led to illnesses or injuries against 52% of men.

15% 17%

16% 14% 12% 19% 24% 6%


Acceptance of the return of women victims of sexual violence

under selected circumstances (% accept)

Données de Septembre - Décembre 2015

Femmes

92%

88%

81%

88%

92%

90%

80%

88%

85%

89%

82%

86%

78%

88%

80%

82%

Hommes

85%

91%

71%

83%

86%

92%

73%

85%

77%

86%

64%

77%

76%

83%

52%

72%

Total

89%

90%

76%

86%

89%

91%

77%

87%

81%

87%

74%

81%

77%

85%

67%

77%

NK

SK

IT

TOTAL

NK

SK

IT

TOTAL

NK

SK

IT

TOTAL

NK

SK

IT

TOTAL

Acc

ept r

etur

n in

your

com

mun

ityA

ccep

t ret

urn

inth

e ho

useh

old

Acc

ept r

etur

n in

the

hous

ehol

dw

ith c

hild

bor

nbe

caus

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the

sexu

al v

iole

nce

expe

rienc

ed

Acc

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the

hous

ehol

dw

ith w

ound

or

dise

ase

bec

ause

of th

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viol

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expe

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KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS (DEC. 2015) The following indicators are monitored in all the polls. Provincial averages may mask significant differences between territories - detailed results by territories are available on the www.peacebuildingdata.org site. Aggregate statistics are based on the latest poll available in each territory.

SENSE OF SECURITY (% safe – very safe)

Latest data (September – December 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri)

PERCEPTION OF SECURITY ACTORS (% trust for security)


71% 80% 79% 76%

46% 55% 60% 53%

NK SK Ituri TOTAL

Daily activities Walking alone at night

67% 70% 72% 76%

44% 46% 51% 53%

Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015

Daily activities Walking alone at night

58%45%

59% 54%52% 52% 44% 50%

25% 20%28% 24%

NK SK Ituri TOTAL

Police FARDC MONUSCO

61%51% 54% 54%

53% 49% 49% 50%

25% 26% 24% 24%

Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015

Police FARDC MONUSCO


PERCEPTION OF RELATIONS WITHIN AND ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS (% good – very good)


TRUST IN JUSTICE (% little – none)


84%

76%

85%82%

77%74%

80%77%

NK SK Ituri TOTAL

Relations with your ethnic group

Relations with other ethnic groups89%

81% 82% 82%

79% 74% 77% 77%

Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015

Relations with your ethnic group

Relations with other ethnic groups

70%

74% 74%72%

70%

75%74%

72%

NK SK Ituri TOTAL

Civilian justice system Military justice system

65%

75% 75%72%

69%

75% 75%73%

Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015

Civilian justice system

Military justice system

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