trends in global communications radio still ... (all supplied by chinese vendors huawei or zte) over...
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Trends in Global Communications
18 May 2011
John McEachen, Ph.D.
Professor
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Naval Postgraduate SchoolUNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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The Future Information Grid
Wireless Network4G & Beyond
Wired Network
1 Mbps10 Mbps
100 Mbps1000 Mbps
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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RF Signal Trends
New waveform: CDMA → OFDMA
Increasing Bandwidth: 25 KHz → 100 MHz(4,000 x increase!)
Increasing Complexity!
Decreasing Handset Power!
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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4
Trend: SDR slowly being accepted
• Widespread commercial use (i.e. mobile phones) of Software-defined radio still not foreseen
– Craig Partridge (DARPA) –“$50 SDR in 2020”
• Increasing use of SDR by international tactical radio manufacturers
• Superb opportunities for SDR in SIGINT systems Aselsan
PRC-9651(Turkey)
Aselsan PRC-9651(Poland)
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Trend: Broadband SATCOM Small Growth
• Broadband satellite data services will continue to see zero to linear growth for the next five years
• Renewed interest after Middle East turmoil
• Providers looking to new Ka-band satellites (50Mbps) beginning in 2014
Source: Pro Brand International, Inc.UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Trend: Smart Dust Disillusionment
• Sensor networks, or smart dust, considered to have flat growth in the next five years
• Market share leader, Crossbow, abandoned the technology in 2010 to focus on GPS systems
• Difficulties in reliability, deployment
• Primary interest remains industrial
• No consumer applications
UNCLASSIFIED
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7
Trend: Mobile Broadband is growing fastest
Mobile Broadband……fastest growing technology in history!
LTE
WiMax
UMTS
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Two Key technologies are evolving to meet the Wireless Broadband Requirements
802.11n(smart antennas)
802.11Mesh extns.
Lo
cal A
rea
Fix
ed
Wid
e A
rea
Mo
bil
e
Co
vera
ge
/Mo
bil
ity
Me
tro
Are
aN
om
ad
ic
802.16(Fixed LOS)
802.16a/d(Fixed NLOS)
802.11b/a/g
Mobile Industry
Fixed Wireless Industry
4G Air Interfaces
Data Rates (kbps)
100,000 +
3GPP2CDMA
2000-1X
HRPDA1x
EVDO
1x EVDV Rel. C
1x EVDVRel. D
GSM UMTS HSPAGPRS EDGE LTE
3GPP
MOBILE BROADBAND
DSL ExperienceDial Up
Higher Data Rate / Lower Cost per Bit
802.16e
(Mobile WIMAX)
LTEAdvan
802.16m
100
Mbps
1,000
Mbps
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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What will we do?
9
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Trend: Mobile Broadband is growing fastest
What’s the real story?
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Sprint makes $3B bet on WiMax
UNCLASSIFIED
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Wateen
Background
Value Proposition
Target Segments
Differentiators
Services Offered
Major Competitors
Division of Warid Telecom (Abu Dhabi)Nationwide WiMAX license (3.5 GHz) in Pakistan
Speedy InstallationLow Cost replacement to DSLE2E network (IP NGN Core, IMS)Nationwide service footprintOne Stop Triple Play
ResidentialEnterpriseSMESoHo
Nationwide CoverageUntethered (Wireless)Fixed and Mobility
Internet AccessVoIPVPN
Incumbent Fixed Operators
Wateen : First nationwide WiMAX 4G deployment in the world (Nov 2008)
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Mobile WiMax Phones
Samsung(Korea)
HTC(Russia)
Mobile WiMax Networks
Mobinnet (Iran)
Globe (Phillipines)UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Operational Iranian 4G Networks(all supplied by Chinese vendors Huawei or ZTE)
Over 300 Mobile WiMax cells in 48 cities. Largest 4G provider in Iran. (www.mobinnet.ir/wimax)
MTN Irancell
Second largest 4G provider in Iran.Mobile WiMax in 7 largest provinces(http://www.mtn.com/AboutMTNGroup/GroupFootprint/MiddleEastAndNorth/MiddleEastAndNorth_Iran.aspx)
Datak Telecom
First Mobile WiMax in Iran, covers 80% of TehranLaser
Telecom
Golestan
Source: www.wimaxforum.orgUNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Nationwide Mobile WiMax Networks Based on Huawei Core Infrastructure
Source: www.huawei.co.cnUNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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WiMax Forum Estimates
• Currently 582 operators in 150 countries
• $1.2 B investment planned for 2011 (China, US, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia)
• Coverage of 823 mil persons end of 2010
• Coverage of 1.4 bil persons end of 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Asia Pacific Africa/Middle
East
Central/Latin
America
North America Eastern Europe Western Europe
Mobile WiMax Coverage(Millions of persons)
UNCLASSIFIED
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What about LTE?
UNCLASSIFIED
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LTE is Gaining Steam!
• January 2010 – First public LTE network operational in Stockholm/Oslo
– Uses Samsung devices, Ericsson network core
– 50 Mbps download, 20 Mbps upload
• Sparse operational networks in Uzbekistan, Japan, Austria, Germany, US
• Test demonstrations in Moscow, Shanghai, Hong Kong
• Top ten global network providers committed to LTE
• LTE adoption in North America, Western Europe assured
• China? India? Russia? Middle East?UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Mobile Subscriptions by Region
LTE
LTE
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Worldwide Deployment
Operational WiMax operators(www.wimaxmaps.org)
(Blue) Operational LTE operators(Red) Planned LTE operators(www.ltemaps.org)
UNCLASSIFIED
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WiFi
≠
Fixed WiMax(2004)
≠
WiMax (2009)
Bandwidth is fixed
Carrier frequency is known
10’s of users
Users transmit when they want
Small area networks
Variable bandwidths
User bandwidth is fixed
Carrier frequency determined by operator
100’s of users
Users transmit on a schedule
Cable modem/DSL alternative (Non-mobile)
Variable bandwidths
Variable User bandwidth
Carrier frequency determined by operator
100’s of users
Users transmit on a schedule
Mobile Phone technology +
Three Very Different Signals
UNCLASSIFIED
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If You Don’t Know What You’re Looking For…
…finding a 4G network is not easy!
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4G Geolocation using Timing Advance
• Potential for Better than 10x Improvement Over GSM TA Location Techniques
– 40m for 4G vs. 400m for GSM
• RNG-RSP Successfully Received in Traffic
• Small Timing Adjust Variance in Repeated Observations
• Periodic and Handoff Ranging Can Add to Location Accuracy
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Summary
• Mobile broadband is the fastest growing technology in history
• Adoption is occurring in underdeveloped nations 10x faster than developed nations
• LTE will be the dominant mobile technology in developed countries in four years– WiMax has made significant in roads in
underdeveloped countries– Jury is still out in China
• Collecting 4G signals will be challenging but exciting potential for geolocation
UNCLASSIFIED