pci lecture 2 software it failures (1)

M Bronte-StewartM Bronte-Stewart 11

Professional Computing IssuesProfessional Computing Issues

COMP09017COMP09017

Unit 2: Software & IT FailureUnit 2: Software & IT Failure


Some flawed predictionsSome flawed predictions'I think there is a world market for maybe five computers'I think there is a world market for maybe five computers ' ' – Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

'I have traveled the length and breadth of this country 'I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the yeardata processing is a fad that won't last out the year'' – Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957 Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

'But what... is it good for?''But what... is it good for?' – Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems division of IBM, Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems division of IBM,

commenting on the microchip, 1968 commenting on the microchip, 1968

'There is no reason why anyone would want a computer 'There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in the home'in the home' – Ken Olson, Present, Chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Ken Olson, Present, Chairman and founder of Digital Equipment

Corporation, 1977 Corporation, 1977

'640K should be enough for anybody'640K should be enough for anybody'' – Bill Gates, on MS DOS version 1 in 1981 Bill Gates, on MS DOS version 1 in 1981


Missing the MarkMissing the Mark

Lotus NotesLotus Notes– Developed in 1984Developed in 1984– Offered to Microsoft in 1988 for $12 Offered to Microsoft in 1988 for $12

millionmillion(they valued it at $4m and declined)(they valued it at $4m and declined)

– By 1993 revenue was $100 millionBy 1993 revenue was $100 million– Lotus purchased by IBM in 1995 for Lotus purchased by IBM in 1995 for

£3.5billion£3.5billion


Software MattersSoftware Matters

““There are only two commodities that will count. There are only two commodities that will count. One is oil and the other is software. And there One is oil and the other is software. And there are alternatives to oil.”are alternatives to oil.”

Bruce BondBruce Bond


Social Need for ITSocial Need for IT

Humans want to increase their comfort, Humans want to increase their comfort, knowledge and control.knowledge and control.

Hence;Hence;– Agrarian Revolution (c. 8000 BC).Agrarian Revolution (c. 8000 BC).– Industrial Revolution (c. 1700 AD).Industrial Revolution (c. 1700 AD).– Information Revolution (c. 1980 AD?).Information Revolution (c. 1980 AD?).

(Alvin Toffler – The Third Wave)(Alvin Toffler – The Third Wave)


Where aren’t computers used today? Where aren’t computers used today?

Cars Cars –– GM claim their cars have 100 million lines of codeGM claim their cars have 100 million lines of code

Air traffic controlAir traffic controlMedicineMedicinePower plantsPower plantsSpacecraftSpacecraftPolice forcesPolice forcesIncome TaxIncome TaxSupermarketsSupermarketsCredit card Companies……etcCredit card Companies……etc


But Can We Trust Computers?But Can We Trust Computers?

Computer applications are often very complex.Computer applications are often very complex.Impossible to test some programs fullyImpossible to test some programs fully– Eg Nuclear power station software!Eg Nuclear power station software!

Impossible to produce a program with no errors.Impossible to produce a program with no errors.– Some are minor,Some are minor,

e.g.e.g. hyphenating words in a word processor hyphenating words in a word processor– Some are major,Some are major,

cost millions of dollars orcost millions of dollars orresult in deaths.result in deaths.


What Can Go Wrong?What Can Go Wrong?

Almost anything:Almost anything:– Billing errorsBilling errors– Database accuracy problemsDatabase accuracy problems– Consumer Hardware and Software ErrorsConsumer Hardware and Software Errors– System FailuresSystem Failures

Child Benefits Agency Child Benefits Agency Inland Revenue systemsInland Revenue systems Passport office systemPassport office system

Developers seem to find it difficult to get it Developers seem to find it difficult to get it right or foresee unwanted outcomesright or foresee unwanted outcomes


Effectiveness of U.S. federal softwareEffectiveness of U.S. federal software

Although these statistics are old they give an Although these statistics are old they give an indication of how much of the software budget was indication of how much of the software budget was wasted on poor quality specification and wasted on poor quality specification and development. development.

Guess the % of the budget that was spent usefully:Guess the % of the budget that was spent usefully:

Delivered but never usedDelivered but never used 46%46%

Paid for but not deliveredPaid for but not delivered 29%29%

Abandoned or reworkedAbandoned or reworked 19%19%

Used after changesUsed after changes 3% 3%

Used as deliveredUsed as delivered 2% 2%

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Project FailureProject Failure

IT projects tend to go over budget and / or over time IT projects tend to go over budget and / or over time schedule and / or do not meet expectationsschedule and / or do not meet expectations

Research by the BCS, Royal Academy of Engineering, OASIG, Research by the BCS, Royal Academy of Engineering, OASIG, Oxford University and others suggest that only about 10% to Oxford University and others suggest that only about 10% to 30% are successful30% are successful

Organisations and governments spend well over $1 trillion on IT Organisations and governments spend well over $1 trillion on IT hardware, software and services. hardware, software and services. (Charette, IEEE)(Charette, IEEE)

Conservative estimates put the cost of IT project failure at tens Conservative estimates put the cost of IT project failure at tens of billions of Euros across the EU of billions of Euros across the EU Jaques, 2004 Jaques, 2004 (142 billion Euros in (142 billion Euros in 2004 2004 McManus & Wood-Harper, 2008McManus & Wood-Harper, 2008) and around $500 billion wasted on IT ) and around $500 billion wasted on IT purchases that fail to reach their objectives worldwide purchases that fail to reach their objectives worldwide Feld & Feld & Stoddard, 2004Stoddard, 2004

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IT project costsIT project costs

The Defence Information Infrastructure project to incorporate The Defence Information Infrastructure project to incorporate 150,000 terminals for 300,000 users at over 2000 defence 150,000 terminals for 300,000 users at over 2000 defence sites is 18 months late and running more than £180m over sites is 18 months late and running more than £180m over budget.budget.

The proposed cost of the controversial national identity The proposed cost of the controversial national identity system rose to over £5bn.system rose to over £5bn.

The NHS IT scheme was initially estimated to cost around The NHS IT scheme was initially estimated to cost around £2.3bn, later this figure climbed to £12.7bn.£2.3bn, later this figure climbed to £12.7bn.

Not surprisingly, a significant proportion of public sector IT Not surprisingly, a significant proportion of public sector IT expenditure at risk of being wasted according to a House of expenditure at risk of being wasted according to a House of Commons select committee.Commons select committee.

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““Prison IT system guilty of 'basic' Prison IT system guilty of 'basic' project management failures” (2009)project management failures” (2009)

The £234m C-Nomis IT system for Prisons failed The £234m C-Nomis IT system for Prisons failed in almost every possible way .in almost every possible way .The NAO concluded that the technical complexity had been The NAO concluded that the technical complexity had been “significantly underestimated”. “significantly underestimated”. C-Nomis was treated as an IT project C-Nomis was treated as an IT project and not a business-change programme, project management was and not a business-change programme, project management was poor, and contracts with suppliers were weak. poor, and contracts with suppliers were weak.

Edward Leigh, chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, said of C-Edward Leigh, chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, said of C-Nomis thatNomis that “kindergarten mistakes” “kindergarten mistakes” had been repeated: had been repeated:

““This Committee hears of troubled government projects all too This Committee hears of troubled government projects all too frequently. But the litany of failings in this case are in a class of their frequently. But the litany of failings in this case are in a class of their own. All of this mess could have been avoided if good practice in own. All of this mess could have been avoided if good practice in project management had been followed.”project management had been followed.”

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Notable Software FailuresNotable Software FailuresRadiotherapy Equipment (Therac-25)Radiotherapy Equipment (Therac-25)– designed to operate in two different modesdesigned to operate in two different modes

low dosage and high dosage (only to smaller area)low dosage and high dosage (only to smaller area)

– high dosage given by mistake and patient diedhigh dosage given by mistake and patient died– inquest showed that software system had replaced earlier inquest showed that software system had replaced earlier

“hard-wired” system“hard-wired” systemhard-wired system had built-in lock which prevented high-dosage hard-wired system had built-in lock which prevented high-dosage being given without adequate screeningbeing given without adequate screening


The misguided torpedo assumptionThe misguided torpedo assumption

– – attempt to prevent the possibility of a torpedo attempt to prevent the possibility of a torpedo returning and exploding against the ship it was fired returning and exploding against the ship it was fired fromfromsafety system built so that it would self-destruct if it safety system built so that it would self-destruct if it turned 180 degreesturned 180 degreesUnfortunately, during trials, a torpedo jammed in its Unfortunately, during trials, a torpedo jammed in its tube on board the ship, the test was abandoned and tube on board the ship, the test was abandoned and the ship turned round to go home the ship turned round to go home

……. . BANG!BANG!


The auto-land systemThe auto-land system

– – to help airplanes land safely two separate software to help airplanes land safely two separate software programs were created. programs were created. The first tracks the aircraft’s descent as it flies down a The first tracks the aircraft’s descent as it flies down a beam projected from the runway. beam projected from the runway. – If the plane loses the beam, the engine power is increased If the plane loses the beam, the engine power is increased

and it flies round for another try. and it flies round for another try.

The second system detects when the plane is near The second system detects when the plane is near the ground cuts the engine and raises the nose prior the ground cuts the engine and raises the nose prior to landing. to landing.

Beam

Runway


Auto-land systemAuto-land system

At the first live test all seemed to work well at the At the first live test all seemed to work well at the startstart

the plane flew down the beam, the detector sensed the plane flew down the beam, the detector sensed the ground, the nose was raised and the engine cut the ground, the nose was raised and the engine cut back, back,

but then the plane sank below the beam and the first but then the plane sank below the beam and the first system cut in, lowered the nose and boosted the system cut in, lowered the nose and boosted the engines ….. engines …..

……. CRASH!. CRASH!


Auto-Land systemAuto-Land system

Those problems were correctedThose problems were corrected

But, new emergent But, new emergent problem…problem…

Unerring accuracy - now all Unerring accuracy - now all aircraft landed on exactly the aircraft landed on exactly the same spot same spot

Runway started to break up!Runway started to break up!

Avon County Council installed a new computer Avon County Council installed a new computer program to pay staff wages.program to pay staff wages.

The spree started in a small way paying a caretaker £75 an hour. The spree started in a small way paying a caretaker £75 an hour.

Then it didn’t pay canteen workers at all for 7 weeks. Then it didn’t pay canteen workers at all for 7 weeks.

Next it paid a janitor £2,600 for a week’s work. Next it paid a janitor £2,600 for a week’s work.

A deputy headmistress received her year’s annual salary once a A deputy headmistress received her year’s annual salary once a month.month.

Heads of department earned less than their assistants.Heads of department earned less than their assistants.

Some people had more tax deducted in a week than they earned all Some people had more tax deducted in a week than they earned all year. year.

By February 280 council employees were out on strike.By February 280 council employees were out on strike.

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(Stephen Pile)


Denver International AirportDenver International Airport

– 16 months late16 months late– $100 million over budget$100 million over budget– Problems caused by new automated Problems caused by new automated

baggage systembaggage systemProject poorly managedProject poorly managed

Significant changes to original spec.Significant changes to original spec.

Designers worked on their ownDesigners worked on their own

Components worked in isolation but not Components worked in isolation but not when integratedwhen integrated

No cohesion among project groupsNo cohesion among project groups

Testing poorly plannedTesting poorly planned

Denver International AirportDenver International Airport

Baggage system supposed to manage luggage from check-in to the correct Baggage system supposed to manage luggage from check-in to the correct plane in under 10 minutesplane in under 10 minutes

4,000 bar coded carts scanned and tracked by lasers 4,000 bar coded carts scanned and tracked by lasers

Computers used database of flights and gate numbers to get routing Computers used database of flights and gate numbers to get routing information, control motors and switches and direct carts, but software information, control motors and switches and direct carts, but software errors not fixederrors not fixed

Interference from politicians forced unrealistic delivery deadlines on Interference from politicians forced unrealistic delivery deadlines on developers developers

Scanners got dirty, became misaligned, did not detect all cartsScanners got dirty, became misaligned, did not detect all carts

Automated carts crashed into each other at track intersections, luggage sent Automated carts crashed into each other at track intersections, luggage sent to wrong places or fell off and blocked tracks – chaos! ( and bad publicity).to wrong places or fell off and blocked tracks – chaos! ( and bad publicity).


Ariane 5Ariane 5

European space rocket designed to send European space rocket designed to send communication satellites into orbitcommunication satellites into orbit

Broke up less than 1 minute into its maiden flight Broke up less than 1 minute into its maiden flight in 1996in 1996

Inquiry found that the on board computer had Inquiry found that the on board computer had crashed due to software error, converting a 64-bit crashed due to software error, converting a 64-bit floating point value into a 16-bit stored integer, floating point value into a 16-bit stored integer, exceeded maximum value but no exception exceeded maximum value but no exception handling mechanism.handling mechanism.


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London Ambulance SystemLondon Ambulance System

New Software “Put Lives At Risk!”New Software “Put Lives At Risk!”Main Findings of investigationMain Findings of investigation– Inexperienced procurement teamInexperienced procurement team– Staff mistrust and oppositionStaff mistrust and opposition– Over-ambitious timetableOver-ambitious timetable– Price put before qualityPrice put before quality– Incomplete and untested softwareIncomplete and untested software– Andersen Consulting report suppressedAndersen Consulting report suppressed– Management failed to identify and solve problemsManagement failed to identify and solve problems– Users “Users “did things wrongdid things wrong””

““...a faulty system implemented with undue haste, by a management ...a faulty system implemented with undue haste, by a management determined to impose its will...”determined to impose its will...”

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Some Newspaper HeadlinesSome Newspaper Headlines

2010 New HMRC inland revenue tax system producing 2010 New HMRC inland revenue tax system producing wrong codes wrong codes “ we’ve heard it all before”.“ we’ve heard it all before”.

2010 Labour accused of wasting 26bn on failed IT projects 2010 Labour accused of wasting 26bn on failed IT projects “stupendous incompetence”.“stupendous incompetence”.

2009 Rural payments scheme put out to grass 2009 Rural payments scheme put out to grass “a display of “a display of scant regard for protecting public money”.scant regard for protecting public money”.

2009 C-nomis offender management system 2009 C-nomis offender management system “a master class in “a master class in sloppy project management”sloppy project management”

2008 Edinburgh Fringe Box-office system 2008 Edinburgh Fringe Box-office system “weak”, “fundamentally “weak”, “fundamentally flawed” “insufficient planning, lack of risk management, inadequate flawed” “insufficient planning, lack of risk management, inadequate communications and no authorised business case”.communications and no authorised business case”.

2005 Strathclyde Police Computer System 2005 Strathclyde Police Computer System “a complete disaster”“a complete disaster”

2003 Libra the IT system for magistrates courts 2003 Libra the IT system for magistrates courts “One of the “One of the worst projects I have ever seen”.worst projects I have ever seen”.

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IT Project Failure FiguresIT Project Failure Figures

Of 3,682 projects in 365 firms – 31% were cancelled, 53% Of 3,682 projects in 365 firms – 31% were cancelled, 53% had cost overruns and poor functionality and only 12% had cost overruns and poor functionality and only 12% were on-time and budget (Johnson)were on-time and budget (Johnson)Only 7% of the 1000 firms Critical Research surveyed Only 7% of the 1000 firms Critical Research surveyed thought they were using IT effectively and 75% of these thought they were using IT effectively and 75% of these firms think that their IT systems are not providing a return firms think that their IT systems are not providing a return on investmenton investment31% of new IT projects are cancelled and over 50% of IT 31% of new IT projects are cancelled and over 50% of IT projects are over budget (PC Week)projects are over budget (PC Week)

But we don’t learn


““Hey Paddy, we’ve got dis here car ta pull out.”Hey Paddy, we’ve got dis here car ta pull out.”


““Shamus, we’re pullin’ it up now.”Shamus, we’re pullin’ it up now.”


““Here Paddy, what happens if da crane can’t hold it?”Here Paddy, what happens if da crane can’t hold it?”““Shamus me lad, don’t you even tink about dat happening.”Shamus me lad, don’t you even tink about dat happening.”


““Hoy Paddy, oi didn’t even tink it, oh shoit!”Hoy Paddy, oi didn’t even tink it, oh shoit!”


““Shamus, moi boy, go get a bigga crane.”Shamus, moi boy, go get a bigga crane.”““Alroight, Paddy.”Alroight, Paddy.”


““Ah Shamus, dis bigga crane is doin’ da job well.”Ah Shamus, dis bigga crane is doin’ da job well.”


““Dat it is Paddy, dat it is.”Dat it is Paddy, dat it is.”


““Now for da first crane Shamus, up it cooms.”Now for da first crane Shamus, up it cooms.”


“ “ What's happening Paddy, what's happening.”What's happening Paddy, what's happening.”


““Oh f*#k Shamus, we’ve got ta get an even bigga crane!’Oh f*#k Shamus, we’ve got ta get an even bigga crane!’

Lyytinen and Robey Lyytinen and Robey (2000)(2000)

““Organisations fail to learn from their experience Organisations fail to learn from their experience in systems development because of limits of in systems development because of limits of organisational intelligence, disincentives for organisational intelligence, disincentives for learning, organisational designs and learning, organisational designs and educational barriers. educational barriers. Not only have many Not only have many organisations failed to learn they also have organisations failed to learn they also have learned to fail.learned to fail. Over time they accept and Over time they accept and expect poor performance while creating expect poor performance while creating organisational myths that perpetuate short-term organisational myths that perpetuate short-term optimisation.”optimisation.”

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Wider effects of IT project failureWider effects of IT project failure

Perceptions of poor success rates and wasted Perceptions of poor success rates and wasted resources affect decision makingresources affect decision making

The more IT projects are seen to go wrong the more:The more IT projects are seen to go wrong the more:– the public become cynicalthe public become cynical– staff learn to expect problems and delaysstaff learn to expect problems and delays– Developers wonder if a lot of their work is likely to be Developers wonder if a lot of their work is likely to be

wasted effortwasted effort– business people become nervous of technology changebusiness people become nervous of technology change– those holding the purse strings may view IT as a worry and those holding the purse strings may view IT as a worry and

a poor return on investmenta poor return on investment

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ResearchResearch

So many computer projects fail and it is accepted So many computer projects fail and it is accepted that billions are wasted every year, yet there is that billions are wasted every year, yet there is remarkable agreement on the main causes of IT remarkable agreement on the main causes of IT project failureproject failure

If you would like to read more about this the findings If you would like to read more about this the findings of a paper presented at the European Management of a paper presented at the European Management of Technology Conference 2009, has been included of Technology Conference 2009, has been included in the “Course Materials” folder of the Blackboard in the “Course Materials” folder of the Blackboard PCI site (listed as PCI site (listed as M B-S Project Failure and Risks)M B-S Project Failure and Risks). .


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What are the main causes of failure?What are the main causes of failure?

6 major research studies reach remarkably 6 major research studies reach remarkably similar conclusions about the significant similar conclusions about the significant causes that threaten project success:causes that threaten project success:– OASIGOASIG– Standish (CHAOS)Standish (CHAOS)– Select CommitteeSelect Committee– OGC / NAOOGC / NAO– Schmidt, Lyytinen, Keil & Cule, Schmidt, Lyytinen, Keil & Cule, – Fortune and WhiteFortune and White

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IT Project Failure IT Project Failure (OASIG study, 1996)(OASIG study, 1996)

Outcomes from IT investment :Outcomes from IT investment :– 80% to 90% do not meet goals80% to 90% do not meet goals– 80% delivered late and over budget80% delivered late and over budget– 40% fail or are abandoned40% fail or are abandoned– Under 40% address training and skills enoughUnder 40% address training and skills enough


IT Project Failure IT Project Failure (OASIG)(OASIG)

Main reasons why IT projects failMain reasons why IT projects fail– Management agenda is too limitedManagement agenda is too limited

most IT investments are technology ledmost IT investments are technology led

main investment motive is to only cut costsmain investment motive is to only cut costs

– This narrow focus on technical capabilities and efficiency goals means This narrow focus on technical capabilities and efficiency goals means that inadequate attention is given to the human and organisational that inadequate attention is given to the human and organisational issues that can determine a project’s ultimate success.issues that can determine a project’s ultimate success.

– Users don’t influence development enoughUsers don’t influence development enough– Senior managers don’t understand the links between technical and Senior managers don’t understand the links between technical and

organisational changeorganisational change– Project management techniques and IT approaches are too technicalProject management techniques and IT approaches are too technical– Companies fail to organise work or design jobs/roles properlyCompanies fail to organise work or design jobs/roles properly

Standish Group CHAOS Survey Standish Group CHAOS Survey Project Success FactorsProject Success Factors

1.1. User involvementUser involvement

2.2. Executive management supportExecutive management support

3.3. Clear and firm statement of requirementsClear and firm statement of requirements

4.4. Proper planning and formal methodologyProper planning and formal methodology

5.5. Realistic expectationsRealistic expectations

6.6. Minimised scope and smaller project milestonesMinimised scope and smaller project milestones

7.7. Competent, skilled staffCompetent, skilled staff

8.8. OwnershipOwnership

9.9. Clear vision and business objectivesClear vision and business objectives

10.10. Hard-working, focussed staffHard-working, focussed staff

11.11. Experienced project managersExperienced project managers

12.12. Reliable estimatesReliable estimates

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Select Committee on Public AccountsSelect Committee on Public Accounts

Report on Improving the delivery of Government IT Report on Improving the delivery of Government IT projects (Study of 25 projects 1990 to 2000)projects (Study of 25 projects 1990 to 2000)

““Implementing IT systems has proved difficult”Implementing IT systems has proved difficult”

““Frequent cases of delay, Frequent cases of delay, confusion and inconvenience confusion and inconvenience for the citizen and poor value for the citizen and poor value for money for the tax payer.”for money for the tax payer.”

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Select Committee Report conclusionsSelect Committee Report conclusions1.1. Decisions about IT are Decisions about IT are Business not technicalBusiness not technical, they have profound effects on , they have profound effects on

customer service and customer service and must involve senior managementmust involve senior management..

2.2. End users End users and their business needs must be identified before the project and their business needs must be identified before the project commences so that commences so that clear objectives clear objectives are taken into account fully during design and are taken into account fully during design and developmentdevelopment

3.3. Scale and complexity Scale and complexity – how ambitious? Can it be undertaken in one go?– how ambitious? Can it be undertaken in one go?

4.4. Skilled Skilled Project Managers Project Managers are essentialare essential

5.5. Sound Sound methodologiesmethodologies and well conceived and well conceived risk managementrisk management are called for are called for

6.6. Need for a high degree of professionalism in the definition, negotiation and Need for a high degree of professionalism in the definition, negotiation and management of management of IT contractsIT contracts

7.7. TrainingTraining can take up considerable resources but must address the needs of the can take up considerable resources but must address the needs of the users and of those maintaining the systems if the anticipated benefits are to be users and of those maintaining the systems if the anticipated benefits are to be realisedrealised

8.8. Contingency Contingency plansplans should be in place should be in place

9.9. Organisations should Organisations should learn lessons learn lessons from projects undertaken. A post from projects undertaken. A post implementation review should establish the extent to which they secured the implementation review should establish the extent to which they secured the proposed business benefits, user expectations and technical requirements.proposed business benefits, user expectations and technical requirements.

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OGC and NAO Best Practice OGC and NAO Best Practice 20052005

Common causes of project failureCommon causes of project failure1. Lack of clear links between the project and the organisation's key strategic 1. Lack of clear links between the project and the organisation's key strategic priorities, including agreed measures of success.priorities, including agreed measures of success.

2. Lack of clear senior management and Ministerial ownership and leadership.2. Lack of clear senior management and Ministerial ownership and leadership.

3. Lack of effective engagement with stakeholders.3. Lack of effective engagement with stakeholders.

4. Lack of skills and proven approach to project management and risk 4. Lack of skills and proven approach to project management and risk management.management.

5. Too little attention to breaking development and implementation into 5. Too little attention to breaking development and implementation into manageable steps.manageable steps.

6. Evaluation of proposals driven by initial price rather than long-term value for6. Evaluation of proposals driven by initial price rather than long-term value for

money (especially securing delivery of business benefits).money (especially securing delivery of business benefits).

7. Lack of understanding of, and contact with the supply industry at senior levels 7. Lack of understanding of, and contact with the supply industry at senior levels in the organisation.in the organisation.

8. Lack of effective project team integration between clients, the supplier team 8. Lack of effective project team integration between clients, the supplier team and the supply chain.and the supply chain.

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Keil, Cule, Lyytinen & Schmidt Keil, Cule, Lyytinen & Schmidt (1998)(1998)

These researchers recruited 3 panels of experienced project These researchers recruited 3 panels of experienced project managers in different places – Finland, Hong Kong & U.S.A. – managers in different places – Finland, Hong Kong & U.S.A. – and asked them to identify and rank specific risk factors.and asked them to identify and rank specific risk factors.– Lack of top management commitment to the projectLack of top management commitment to the project

– Failure to gain user commitmentFailure to gain user commitment

– Misunderstanding the requirementsMisunderstanding the requirements

– Lack of adequate user involvementLack of adequate user involvement

– Failure to manage end user expectationsFailure to manage end user expectations

– Changing scope / objectionsChanging scope / objections

– Lack of required knowledge / skills in project personnelLack of required knowledge / skills in project personnel

– Lack of frozen requirementsLack of frozen requirements

– Introduction of new technologyIntroduction of new technology

– Conflict between user departmentsConflict between user departments

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Fortune and White (2006)Fortune and White (2006)

Fortune and White reviewed 63 publications that focus Fortune and White reviewed 63 publications that focus on project Critical Success Factorson project Critical Success FactorsThe top ten (in order of count of citations) of the 27 they quote are:The top ten (in order of count of citations) of the 27 they quote are:– Support from senior managementSupport from senior management

– Clear realistic objectivesClear realistic objectives

– Strong / detailed plan kept up to dateStrong / detailed plan kept up to date

– Good communications / feed backGood communications / feed back

– User / client involvementUser / client involvement

– Skilled / suitably qualified / sufficient staff / teamSkilled / suitably qualified / sufficient staff / team

– Effective change managementEffective change management

– Competent project managerCompetent project manager

– Strong business case / sound basis for projectStrong business case / sound basis for project

– Sufficient / well allocated resourcesSufficient / well allocated resources

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Select CommitteeOASIG NAO / OGC

Keil et al CHAOS (Top Requirements:)

Fortune and White (CSFs)

IT projects are driven by business (not technical) decisions

Many IT investments are seen only as technology led and aimed at cost cutting

Evaluation of proposals driven by initial price rather than long term value, especially securing delivery of business benefits

Misunderstanding user requirements

Clear business objectives and Realistic expectations

Strong business case / sound basis for project

Insufficient involvement from users

Users do not influence development enough

Lack of effective engagement with stakeholders

Lack of user involvement or commitment User involvement User / client involvement

Clear objectives should be set from the start

Need to set and review strategic objectives for change

Lack of clear link between the project and the organisation’s key strategic priorities, including agreed measures of success

Unclear and changing scope and objectives Clear and firm statement

of requirements

Clear realistic objectives

Lack of commitment from senior management

Management agenda is often too limited or narrow

Lack of clear senior management ownership and leadership

Lack of top management commitment

Executive management support

Support from senior management

Large projects may be overambitious

Inadequate attention is given to human and organisational issues

Too little attention to breaking development and implementation into manageable steps

Number of organisational units involved

Minimised scope and smaller project milestones

Project size, complexity, number of people involved, and duration

Skilled project managers are essential to keep to time and budget and appropriate deliverables

Senior managers do not understand the link between technical and organisational change

Lack of skills and proven approach to project management and risk management

Lack of required knowledge and effective project management skills

Experienced project managers

Competent project manager and effective change management

Success depends on good risk analysis and sound methodologies

Some project management techniques and IT approaches are too technical

Lack of effective project management methodology

Proper planning and formal methodology

Correct choice / past experience of project management methodology / tools

Contingency plans should be in place

Must work to detailed implementation plans

Not managing change properly

Reliable estimates

Strong / detailed plans kept up to date

User and operator training must be planned and designed

Failure to organise changes in work and roles properly

Inadequate resources and skills to deliver the total delivery portfolio

Inappropriate staffing and ill defined responsibilities Competent, skilled and

focussed staff

Skilled / suitably qualified and sufficient staff / team

There should be a post-implementation review

Introduction of new technology

Standard software infrastructure

Planned close down / review, acceptance of possible failure

Need professionalism in the definition, negotiation and management of IT contracts

Lack of understanding of , and contact with, the supply industry at senior levels in the organisation

OwnershipGood communication / feedback

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What can be done?What can be done?Look before you leap benefit/risk assessmentLook before you leap benefit/risk assessment

Well specified project definition with rationaleWell specified project definition with rationale

More careful and accurate estimationMore careful and accurate estimation

Better Risk ManagementBetter Risk Management

Adherence to tried and tested methodologiesAdherence to tried and tested methodologies

Redefine “failure”Redefine “failure”


UK Government ApproachesUK Government Approaches

A set of Best Management Practice products offer flexible, A set of Best Management Practice products offer flexible, practical and effective guidance, drawn from a range of the practical and effective guidance, drawn from a range of the most successful global business experiences. most successful global business experiences.

They have helped improve processes and operations for They have helped improve processes and operations for small businesses, public sector organizations and major small businesses, public sector organizations and major global enterprises.global enterprises.

They include: PRINCE2 (They include: PRINCE2 (Project managementProject management), ITIL (), ITIL (IT service IT service

managementmanagement), M_o_R (), M_o_R (Risk managementRisk management), MSP (), MSP (Managing Managing

successful programmessuccessful programmes), P3O (), P3O (Project program and portfolio officesProject program and portfolio offices), ), MoP (MoP (Portfolio managementPortfolio management), MoV (), MoV (Management of ValueManagement of Value), P3M3 ), P3M3 ((Portfolio, Programme, and Project Management Maturity ModelPortfolio, Programme, and Project Management Maturity Model))


PRINCE2PRINCE2PRINCE2PRINCE2 ( (PrProjects ojects inin a a CControlled ontrolled EEnvironment) is a structured project nvironment) is a structured project management method based on experience drawn from thousands of management method based on experience drawn from thousands of projects - and from the contributions of countless project sponsors, Project projects - and from the contributions of countless project sponsors, Project Managers, project teams, academics, trainers and consultants.Managers, project teams, academics, trainers and consultants.

It is a widely recognised standard, which embodies established and proven best practice in project management.

PRINCE2 is a non-proprietary method that can be applied to any project PRINCE2 is a non-proprietary method that can be applied to any project regardless of project scale, type, organisation, geography or culture. regardless of project scale, type, organisation, geography or culture.


ITILITIL (Information Technology (Information Technology Infrastructure Library)Infrastructure Library)

ITIL = practices for IT service management (ITSM) that focuses on aligning ITIL = practices for IT service management (ITSM) that focuses on aligning IT services with the needs of business. IT services with the needs of business.

ITIL has five core publications, each of which covers an ITSM lifecycle stage. ITIL has five core publications, each of which covers an ITSM lifecycle stage. – Service StrategyService Strategy, , – Service DesignService Design, , – Service TransitionService Transition, , – Service OperationService Operation, and , and – Continual Service ImprovementContinual Service Improvement..

ITILv3 (2011) underpins ISO/IEC 20000 (previously BS15000), the ITILv3 (2011) underpins ISO/IEC 20000 (previously BS15000), the International Service Management Standard for IT service management.International Service Management Standard for IT service management.

ITIL describes procedures, tasks and checklists that can be used by an ITIL describes procedures, tasks and checklists that can be used by an organization for establishing a minimum level of competency. It gives a organization for establishing a minimum level of competency. It gives a baseline to plan, implement, and measure. It is used to demonstrate baseline to plan, implement, and measure. It is used to demonstrate compliance and to measure improvement.compliance and to measure improvement.



So What do we look out for ?So What do we look out for ? Main obstacles include:Main obstacles include:– no business caseno business case– unrealistic expectationsunrealistic expectations– requirements creeprequirements creep– problems of dealing with changeproblems of dealing with change– organisational inertiaorganisational inertia– difficulty in anticipating eventsdifficulty in anticipating events– inadequate leadership & managementinadequate leadership & management– insufficient testinginsufficient testing– boss / financial pressureboss / financial pressure


So What do we look out for ?So What do we look out for ?

Hardware/Software vendors sell “solutions” (Hardware/Software vendors sell “solutions” (Techno-hype)Techno-hype)

– Incompatibilities and difficulty building, modifying and Incompatibilities and difficulty building, modifying and integrating information systemsintegrating information systems

Overconfidence and carelessnessOverconfidence and carelessness– Including failure to plan and inadequate understanding of risksIncluding failure to plan and inadequate understanding of risks


The big pictureThe big pictureReal business problems involve more than just Real business problems involve more than just changing computer hardware and softwarechanging computer hardware and software– Changes to the organisation and the way it worksChanges to the organisation and the way it works– Changes to people, new roles, retraining, motivationChanges to people, new roles, retraining, motivation– Changes to information – manipulation, analysis, Changes to information – manipulation, analysis,

storage and flowstorage and flow– Changes to structure and cultureChanges to structure and culture– Changes to processesChanges to processes


Difficulties Building IT-Based SystemsDifficulties Building IT-Based Systems

Complexity (real-time, multitasking, global)Complexity (real-time, multitasking, global)– (The bigger they are the harder they fall)(The bigger they are the harder they fall)– Too many stakeholdersToo many stakeholders– Small, self-contained, well understood systems have best Small, self-contained, well understood systems have best

chance of successchance of success

Rushed and speedy implementationRushed and speedy implementation

Not planned or managed properly, Not planned or managed properly,

Potentially influenced by commercial or political factorsPotentially influenced by commercial or political factors

Lack of incentives or laws to do a better jobLack of incentives or laws to do a better job

Integrating new system with legacy technologies Integrating new system with legacy technologies


Problems of Dealing with ChangeProblems of Dealing with Change

Lack of proper trainingLack of proper training

Unforeseen effectsUnforeseen effects

Incompatibilities and legacy systemsIncompatibilities and legacy systems

Technical progress can seem to raise more Technical progress can seem to raise more problems than it solves problems than it solves

New efficiencies mean fewer staff employed?New efficiencies mean fewer staff employed?

Organisational inertia – resistance to change,Organisational inertia – resistance to change,– Tendency to want to carry on the old wayTendency to want to carry on the old way


Difficulty in Anticipating EventsDifficulty in Anticipating Events

Ignorance as to how any particular innovation Ignorance as to how any particular innovation will develop or be adapted over time.will develop or be adapted over time.e.g. World Wide Web (only “invented” in 1992) early e.g. World Wide Web (only “invented” in 1992) early

adopters did not realise how far reaching and adopters did not realise how far reaching and pervasive it would become.pervasive it would become.


Computer RelianceComputer Reliance

Could modern life survive without IT?Could modern life survive without IT?

Is “dependence” on computers different Is “dependence” on computers different from dependence on electricity?from dependence on electricity?

Computers are now virtually everywhereComputers are now virtually everywhere– is this is this goodgood or or badbad or or neutralneutral??


Control & DesignControl & Design

Does the computer control us, or do Does the computer control us, or do we control the computer?we control the computer?

Four possible control scenariosFour possible control scenarios– computercomputer controlscontrols computercomputer– computercomputer controlscontrols humanhuman– humanhuman controlscontrols computercomputer– humanhuman controlscontrols humanhuman


1) Computer Controls Computer1) Computer Controls Computer

Computer Controls Computer Computer Controls Computer

Key Points:Key Points:– Often called a Often called a Finite State Automaton, Finite State Automaton, – Malfunctions, but should be no Malfunctions, but should be no

breakdown of controlbreakdown of control– control is clearly defined and does not control is clearly defined and does not

alteralter– e.g.e.g. automatic pilot automatic pilot


2) Computer Controls Human2) Computer Controls Human

Computer Controls HumanComputer Controls Human Key Points:Key Points:– Breakdown of control may Breakdown of control may

lead to anger, fear, lead to anger, fear, demoralisation, demoralisation,

– e.g. traffic lights, automated e.g. traffic lights, automated cinema seat booking cinema seat booking


3) Human Controls Computer3) Human Controls Computer

Human Controls Computer Human Controls Computer

Key Points:Key Points:– Breakdown of control may lead Breakdown of control may lead

to feelings of frustration, to feelings of frustration, helplessness, inadequacyhelplessness, inadequacy

– e.g. almost anything “Office” e.g. almost anything “Office” related, fax machinerelated, fax machine


4) Human Controls Human4) Human Controls HumanHuman Controls HumanHuman Controls Human

Key Points:Key Points:– breakdowns all the timebreakdowns all the time– e.g. “I don’t know what they’re talking about”e.g. “I don’t know what they’re talking about”– ““the boss does not have a clue what is needed”the boss does not have a clue what is needed”– ““men are from Mars, women are from Venus”men are from Mars, women are from Venus”

So why does control breakdown when humans So why does control breakdown when humans are involved?are involved?

It has a lot to do with INTERPRETATIONIt has a lot to do with INTERPRETATION


Impact of InterpretationImpact of Interpretation

1 Computer 1 Computer controlscontrols Computer Computer– no interpretation requiredno interpretation required

2 Computer 2 Computer controlscontrols Human Human– human interpretation prohibitedhuman interpretation prohibited

3 Human 3 Human controlscontrols Computer Computer– some human interpretation requiredsome human interpretation required

4 Human 4 Human controlscontrols Human Human– All is interpretationAll is interpretation


InterpretationInterpretation

CASE tools and IT Methodologies forcing more CASE tools and IT Methodologies forcing more mechanistic and structured behaviour have been mechanistic and structured behaviour have been created to try to reduce human effect on systemscreated to try to reduce human effect on systems

Likewise introducing computer-to-computer interaction Likewise introducing computer-to-computer interaction into a human-to-human situation will lose all into a human-to-human situation will lose all interpretation, e.g. Stock market crashinterpretation, e.g. Stock market crash


InterpretationInterpretation

Wherever “interpretation” needs to Wherever “interpretation” needs to be reduced (or even removed) the be reduced (or even removed) the introduction of computers can lead introduction of computers can lead to better controlto better control

Wherever “interpretation” is Wherever “interpretation” is required it is necessary to have a required it is necessary to have a human in controlhuman in control


How does this affect our approach How does this affect our approach to Software Developmentto Software Development

A balancing actA balancing act– customer wants -v- error free customer wants -v- error free

– Results in trying to make people Results in trying to make people like machines (machine centred like machines (machine centred design) or machines like people design) or machines like people (human-centred design)(human-centred design)

Software DevelopmentSoftware Development



Designing People and ComputersDesigning People and Computers

Division of labour between Computers and PeopleDivision of labour between Computers and PeoplePeople are good at:People are good at:– Understanding, social negotiation, imagination, seeing the Understanding, social negotiation, imagination, seeing the

whole situationwhole situation

Computers are good at:Computers are good at:– Repetitive tasks involving speed, consistency and Repetitive tasks involving speed, consistency and

enduranceendurance– Execution of unambiguous instructionsExecution of unambiguous instructions


Human-Centred DesignHuman-Centred Design vv Computer-Centred DesignComputer-Centred Design

Human-CentredHuman-Centred– Technology aids the Technology aids the

individualindividual

– To make life and work To make life and work easier and more easier and more satisfyingsatisfying

– User friendlyUser friendly

Machine-CentredMachine-Centred– SimplificationSimplification

– AutomationAutomation

– People adjust to the People adjust to the machinemachine

– User hostile?User hostile?


The ExtremesThe Extremes

Anthropomorphisation - ascribing human Anthropomorphisation - ascribing human attributes to an animal or objectattributes to an animal or object– e.g.“The computer made a mistake”e.g.“The computer made a mistake”– ““come on you stupid machine!”come on you stupid machine!”

Reverse Anthropomorphisation - using Reverse Anthropomorphisation - using computer functions and attributes to computer functions and attributes to describe people describe people – e.g. “I am interrupt driven!”e.g. “I am interrupt driven!”


ConclusionsConclusions

Computer technology can be Computer technology can be a powerful and valuable tool a powerful and valuable tool but it is not “Magic”but it is not “Magic”

Technology “failure”Technology “failure”

Don’t blame the stove for a Don’t blame the stove for a badly cooked meal!badly cooked meal!


Computer Technology is a ToolComputer Technology is a Tool

Positive benefitsPositive benefits– Reduces repetitive Reduces repetitive

mental or physical labourmental or physical labour– Enable increased Enable increased

productivity or safetyproductivity or safety– Helps us to produce Helps us to produce

better products and learn better products and learn new skillsnew skills

Negative costs Negative costs – Can make us slaves and Can make us slaves and

dehumanise usdehumanise us– Can reduce productivity Can reduce productivity

and safetyand safety– Can waste money, time Can waste money, time

and effortand effort


How Do We Balance ThisHow Do We Balance ThisMaking trade offs:Making trade offs:– Perfection is not possible, Computer systems are Perfection is not possible, Computer systems are

inherently flawed and changing fastinherently flawed and changing fastHow close to perfection do we expect them to be?How close to perfection do we expect them to be?

What is an acceptable error rate?What is an acceptable error rate?

Should we spend more on testing before release?Should we spend more on testing before release?

Or wait till users find problems?Or wait till users find problems?

– How do we achieve an ideal? How do we achieve an ideal?

Should computer professionals be held liable Should computer professionals be held liable for damages caused?for damages caused?


Making trade offsMaking trade offs

How do we weigh up the expense of change for How do we weigh up the expense of change for a negligible gain in performance?a negligible gain in performance?

Or assess the costs of improvement versus the Or assess the costs of improvement versus the costs of failure?costs of failure?– In terms of liability, customer dissatisfaction, ….In terms of liability, customer dissatisfaction, ….

Can one waste money on too much safety in Can one waste money on too much safety in safety-critical computer systems?safety-critical computer systems?


Professional & Ethical Professional & Ethical ConsiderationsConsiderations

Flaws can cause serious disruption/danger, butFlaws can cause serious disruption/danger, but

complexity of modern computer systems makes complexity of modern computer systems makes errors, oversights, etc. a near certaintyerrors, oversights, etc. a near certainty

Risks of using computers should be compared Risks of using computers should be compared with with – i) risks of other methods and i) risks of other methods and – ii) with benefits obtainedii) with benefits obtained



Does not mean that computer errors and Does not mean that computer errors and failures should be excused or ignoredfailures should be excused or ignoredDoes not mean that carelessness or Does not mean that carelessness or negligence should be toleratednegligence should be toleratedDoes not mean that accidents should be Does not mean that accidents should be excused excused – as part of learning process as part of learning process – or because, on balance, contribution of or because, on balance, contribution of

computers is overwhelmingly positivecomputers is overwhelmingly positive



Should serve to remind Should serve to remind computer professionals of computer professionals of importance of doing job importance of doing job responsiblyresponsibly– They must assess risks They must assess risks

carefully and honestlycarefully and honestly– must include safety protectionsmust include safety protections– Eg plans for backup, shutdown Eg plans for backup, shutdown

and recoveryand recovery

pci lecture 2 software it failures (1)

Education

brontestewartm brontestewart

software budget wasindication

chairman of ibm

nuclear power station

industrial revolution

information revolution

arent computers

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