7/29/2019 pci jan13 report final.pdf

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january 2013PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX

GErManyCOnSTruCTIOnInDEX*

auSTralIan

pCI

uKCOnSTru

CTIOnInDEX*

IrElanDCO

nSTruCTIOnInDEX*

KEy FInDInGS The dwntrn in the natina cnstrctin indstry cntined in

Janary. Bth activity and new rders cntracted at steeper rates,

nwinding sme the imprvement in indstry cnditins witnessedin ate 2012.

The seasnay adjsted Astraian Indstry Grp/ Hsing IndstryAssciatin Astraian Perrmance Cnstrctin Index (AustralianPCI ) decined by 2.6 pints in Janary t 36.2. The index has nw

remained bew the critica 50 pints eve (that separates expansin

rm cntractin) r 32 cnsective mnths. Reecting the dampening inence aing new rders, a majr

sb-sectrs experienced cntractins in activity in Janary. Hse

biding was the weakest perrming sectr (despite a swer pace decine in activity), whie the apartment and cmmercia cnstrctin

sectrs cntracted at steeper rates dring the mnth. Engineering

cnstrctin decined at a rate that was brady nchanged rmDecember 2012.

Mst bsinesses inked the nging decine in activity t pr market

demand, citing imited pprtnities t tender r new wrk andprject deays. Diicties in btaining inance and weak cnsmer

and investr sentiment had as cntribted t a ack new bsiness.

COnSTruCTIOn aCTIvITy anD CapaCITy In seasnay adjsted terms, the activity sb-index registered 37.7

in Janary.

This was 1.9 pints bew the eve in the previs mnth, indicating

a steeper rate cntractin in tta indstry activity. Weaker demand cnditins drve decines in activity n a brad

indstry rnt. Cnsistent with this, the rate capacity tiisatin e rm 67.3% in

December 2012 t 65.8%.

aCTIvITy by SECTOr Hse biding cnditins remain sbded. Hwever, the sectrs

activity sb-index increased by 1.4 pints t 36.1 in Janary t signa a

sighty swer rate cntractin. Apartment biding activity was weaker with the sb-index decining

by 1.2 pints in Janary t 38.9.

Cmmercia cnstrctin cntracted at a steeper rate ater exhibiting antabe easing in the previs mnth. The sectrs sb-index decined

by 6.1 pints t 40.1 driven by a sharper decine in new rders.

The engineering cnstrctin sb-index was brady nchangedincreasing by 0.2 pints t 38.7.

*Prepared by Markit Ecnmics

DOwnTurn In COnSTruCTIOn COnTInuESIn january

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Jul11

Aug11

Sep11

Oct11

Nov11

Dec11

Jan12

Feb12

Mar12

Apr12

May12

Jun12

July12

Aug12

Sep12

Oct12

Nov12

Dec12

Jan13

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

DiffusionIndex

Increasin

g

Decreasing

Australian PCI 3 month moving average

FEBMAR

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

JAN

FEBMAR

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

DEC

FEBMAR

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

DEC

FEBMAR

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

DEC

36.2

DEC

48.7

NOV

43.3

NOV

43.0

NOV

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

DiffusionIndex

CapacityUtilisation%(unadjusted)

Activity

CapacityUtilisation

60

65

70

75

80

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul

11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

Jun

12

July

12

Aug

12

Sep

12

Oct

12

Nov

12

Dec

12

Jan

13

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Jul11

Aug11

Sep11

Oct11

Nov11

Dec11

Jan12

Feb12

Mar12

Apr12

May12

Jun12

July12

Aug12

Sep12

Oct12

Nov12

Dec12

Jan13

Houses Apartments Commercial Engineering

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Diffusion

Index

Increasing

Decreasing

www.markiteconomics.com

Spprted by:

7/29/2019 pci jan13 report final.pdf

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whaT IS ThEauSTralIan pCI?

The Astraian Indstry GrpPerrmance CnstrctinIndex (Australian PCI) incnjnctin with the HsingIndstry Assciatin is aseasnay adjsted natinacmpsite index based n thedisin indexes r activity,rders/new bsiness, deiveriesand empyment with varying

weights. An Australian PCIreading abve 50 pints

indicates cnstrctin activityis generay expanding; bew50, that it is decining. Thedistance rm 50 is indicative the strength the expansinr decine.

Mre inrmatin can bebtained rm the Ai Grp

website www.aigrp.cm.a

COnTaCT

Peter Burn

Directr Pbic PicyAi GrpTe 02 9466 5503

Harley DaleHIAChie EcnmistTe 02 6345 1329

Markit Ecnmics

www.markiteconomics.com

The Australian IndustryGroup, 2013

This pbicatin is cpyright.Apart rm any air deaing rthe prpses private stdyr research permitted nderappicabe cpyright egisatin,n part may be reprdced byany prcess r means withtthe prir written permissin The Astraian Indstry Grp.

Disclaimer The AstraianIndstry Grp prvidesinrmatin services t itsmembers and thers, whichincde ecnmic and indstrypicy and recasting services.Nne the inrmatinprvided here is represented rimpied t be ega, accnting,

fnancia r investment adviceand des nt cnstittefnancia prdct advice. TheAstraian Indstry Grpdes nt invite and des ntexpect any persn t act rrey n any statement, pinin,representatin r intererenceexpressed r impied in thispbicatin. The AstraianIndstry Grp has cmpiedthis inrmatin in cnjnctinwith inrmatin prvided byHIA. A readers mst maketheir wn enqiries andbtain their wn pressinaadvice in reatin t any isser matter reerred t herein

bere making any fnancia rther decisin. The AstraianIndstry Grp accepts nrespnsibiity r any act rmissin by any persn reyingin whe r in part pn thecntents this pbicatin.

*Prepared by Markit Ecnmics

AIG12601

nEw OrDErS anD DElIvErIES New rders (seasnay adjsted) cntracted in Janary r the 32nd

cnsective mnth. Mrever, the rate decine was sharper with the new rders

index decreasing by 5.6 pints t 37.0. A r brad indstry sectrs registered mre prnnced rates

decine in new rders with the steepest mnth-n-mnth as

recrded in the apartment and cmmercia cnstrctin sectrs. Sbded demand and wer wrkads rested in a rther

cntractin in deiveries inpts rm sppiers. The sppier

deivery index decined by 0.9 pints in Janary t 36.6.

nEw OrDErS by SECTOr New rders in the hse biding sectr decined at a steeper rate

with the sb-index aing by 1.3 pints in Janary t 32.6. In cmmercia cnstrctin, the new rders sb-index e by 10.9

pints t 39.4 wing a marked easing in the rate cntractin

in the previs mnth. Fr the engineering cnstrctin sectr, the cntractin in new

rders was as steeper with the sb-index decining by 2.0 pints

t 42.8. The deayed timing prjects and sggish gvernmentnded inrastrctre spending were cited as impacting negativey

n the ptake wrk.

In the apartment sectr, the new rders sb-index decinedmarkedy by 16.7 pints t 26.4, the sharpest rate cntractin in

ive mnths.

EMplOyMEnT anD waGES Empyment cntracted at a steeper rate r the secnd

cnsective mnth. The empyment sb-index registered 33.3 in Janary, a a 0.7

pints rm the previs mnth.

Where empyment eves e, reprts indicate that this was in inewith decreasing wrkads and erts t redce csts.

Grwth in wages cntined in Janary, athgh at a swer rate,

with the wages sb-index aing by 4.1 pints t 54.5.

npuT COSTS anD SEllInG prICES Inpt price inatin mderated in Janary. The inpt csts sb-index

registered 63.5, a decine 5.3 pints rm the previs mnth. Seing prices decined r the 27th cnsective mnth, highighting

the strng cmpetitin r avaiabe wrk that persists acrss the

indstry. Despite the cntined decine in seing prices, the rate

cntractin eased in the mnth with the sb-index rising by 3.7

pints t 39.7.

www.markiteconomics.com

Spprted by:

auSTralIan pCI*January 2013 December 2012 Monthly Change Direction Rate of Change Trend ** (Months)

auSTralIan pCI 36.2 38.8 -2.6 Contracting Faster 32

aCTIvITy 37.7 39.6 -1.9 Contracting Faster 33

HouSES 36.1 34.7 +1.4 Contracting Slower 32

APARTMENTS 38.9 40.1 -1.2 Contracting Faster 33

CoMMERCIAl 40.1 46.2 -6.1 Contracting Faster 31

ENGINEERING 38.7 38.5 +0.2 Contracting Slower 13

nEw OrDErS 37.0 42.6 -5.6 Contracting Faster 32

EMplOyMEnT 33.3 34.0 -0.7 Contracting Faster 32

DElIvErIES 36.6 37.5 -0.9 Contracting Faster 30

npuT prICES 63.5 68.8 -5.3 Expanding Slower 89

SEllInG prICES 39.7 36.0 +3.7 Contracting Slower 27

waGES 54.5 58.6 -4.1 Expanding Slower 46

apaCITy(%) 65.8 67.3 -1.5 % points Lower na na

Results are based on a sample of approximately 150 companies. New monthly seasonal adjustment factors were applied in April 2012.* Number of months moving in current direction

20

30

40

50

60

70

DiffusionIndex

Increasing

Decreasing

New Orders Deliveries

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Jul11

Aug11

Sep11

Oct11

Nov11

Dec11

Jan12

Feb12

Mar12

Apr12

May12

Jun12

July12

Aug12

Sep12

Oct12

Nov12

Dec12

Jan13

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Jul11

Aug11

Sep11

Oct11

Nov11

Dec11

Jan12

Feb12

Mar12

Apr12

May12

Jun12

July12

Aug12

Sep12

Oct12

Nov12

Dec12

Jan13

Houses Apartments Commercial Engineering

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Diffusion

Index

Increasing

Decreasing

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

DiffusionIndex

Increasing

Decreasing

Employment

Average Wages

Jan11

Feb11

Ma

r11

Ap

r11

May11

Jun11

Ju

l11

Aug11

Sep11

Oc

t11

Nov11

De

c11

Jan12

Feb12

Ma

r12

Ap

r12

May12

Jun12

July12

Aug12

Sep12

Oc

t12

Nov12

De

c12

Jan13

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Increasing

Decreasing

Inpu t P rice s Ave rag e S ellin g p rice s

DiffusionIndex

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Jul11

Aug11

Sep11

Oct11

Nov11

Dec11

Jan12

Feb12

Mar12

Apr12

May12

Jun12

July12

Aug12

Sep12

Oct12

Nov12

Dec12

Jan13