paul murphy- bloomberg presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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“DRIVING OPPORTUNITIES TO SMALL, DC-AREA FIRMS
DEC // 15 //11
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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THE OVERALL SMALL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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OMB AT MID SESSION: DISCRETIONARY CUTS COMING; INTEREST, INFLATION LOOM
3
$816 $835 $860 $805 $771 $761 $768
$490 $477 $440 $394 $384 $387 $388
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
FY10 FY11* FY12* FY13* FY14* FY15* FY16*
Bill
ion
s o
f d
olla
rs
Actual & Projected Discretionary Outlays FY 2010 - FY 2016
Security Non-Security
2.8%
1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016*
Consumer Price Index, 2011-2016
0.1%
0.5%
1.8%
3.2%
3.8%4.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016*
91-Day T-Note Interest 2011-2016
$196 $216 $234
$295
$378
$461
$525
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
FY10 FY11* FY12* FY13* FY14* FY15* FY16*
Bill
ion
s o
f d
olla
rs
Net Debt Interest, FY 2010 - FY 2016
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SBA: LEANER . . . MORE WITH LESS?
4
$1,786,000
$993,000 $984,000 $883,000 $876,000
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
$2,000,000
FY 2010 FY 2011* FY 2012* FY 2013* FY 2014*
SBA Discretionary Outlays and ProjectionsFY 2010 - FY 2014
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THE LAST SIX YEARS: IS THE SB SPENDING PEAK BEHIND US?
5
$250.0 $275.6$310.2
$342.0 $357.5 $331.8
$70.5$75.9
$80.5
$88.0$93.5
$96.3
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
$400.0
$450.0
$500.0
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Small and Large/Other Vendor Contract Spending, FY05-FY10
Other Small
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THE LAST SIX YEARS: IS THE SB SPENDING PEAK BEHIND US?
6
78.0% 78.4% 79.4% 79.5% 79.3% 77.5%
22.0% 21.6% 20.6% 20.5% 20.7% 22.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Small and Large/Other Vendor Sharesof Contract Spending FY05 - FY10
Other Small
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THE COMING FIVE YEARS: CAN SMALL BUSINESS BUCK THE TREND?
7
* Based on OMB MSR Proposed Budget for FY 2012, Table S-4, August 2011 and on
definition of "Security" created in the Budget Control Act of 2011 now used by OMB.
$26.30 $25.60 $23.62 $21.15 $20.61 $20.77
$70.00 $71.63 $73.77$69.06 $66.14 $65.28
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
FY 2010 FY 2011* FY 2012* FY 2013* FY 2014* FY 2015*
Actual FY10 and Estimated FY11-FY15Security/NonSec SB Contract Spending
NONSEC SECUR
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THE REGIONAL PICTURE >>>>>>>>>>>>>
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DC-MD-VA PLACE OF PERFORMANCE : CONTRACTING POWERHOUSE
9
Category 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
All Contract Dollars $434,126,799,126 $477,618,361,903 $525,655,760,848 $553,713,242,948 $534,347,977,527 $466,856,032,732
DC-MD-VA Contract Dollars $82,292,256,965 $87,113,592,895 $99,789,721,138 $104,731,923,772 $106,984,678,467 $90,148,881,148
Regional Share 19.0% 18.2% 19.0% 18.9% 20.0% 19.3%
All Federal Vendors 203,011 209,233 213,893 202,755 203,616 187,442
DC-MD-VA Fed Vendors 39,408 42,093 43,386 40,820 41,540 38,167
Regional Share 19.4% 20.1% 20.3% 20.1% 20.4% 20.4%
All Federal Contracts 1,321,540 1,510,783 1,680,563 941,408 948,193 869,637
DC-MD-VA Fed Contracts 130,688 145,316 153,656 125,468 129,075 117,081
Regional Share 9.9% 9.6% 9.1% 13.3% 13.6% 13.5%
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DC-MD-VA PLACE OF PERFORMANCE : CONTRACTING POWERHOUSE (2)
10
19.0%18.2%
19.0% 18.9%20.0%
19.3%
19.4%20.1% 20.3% 20.1%
20.4%20.4%
9.9% 9.6% 9.1%
13.3% 13.6% 13.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011
Regional Dollar Share Regional Vendor Share Regional Contract Share
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DC-MD-VA SMALL FEDERAL VENDORS: QUALITY AND QUANTITY (1)
11
Category FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011
All Federal SB Contract Dollars $83,753,030,226 $89,352,845,387 $97,482,523,506 $103,820,565,596 $107,412,675,468 $85,489,434,546
DC-MD-VA SB Contract Dollars $21,762,514,641 $24,098,224,335 $26,282,106,672 $28,128,426,452 $30,312,633,049 $24,365,958,540
Regional Share 26.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.1% 28.2% 28.5%
All Small Federal Vendors 142,437 146,513 148,797 139,751 138,782 126,239
DC-MD-VA Small Fed Vendors 27,242 28,900 29,600 27,503 27,861 25,256
Regional Share 19.1% 19.7% 19.9% 19.7% 20.1% 20.0%
All SB Federal Contracts 914,013 898,928 976,931 579,885 570,357 506,157
DC-MD-VA SB Fed Contracts 83,741 89,990 93,024 76,232 77,763 69,692
Regional Share 9.2% 10.0% 9.5% 13.1% 13.6% 13.8%
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DC-MD-VA SMALL FEDERAL VENDORS: QUALITY AND QUANTITY (2)
12
26.0%27.0% 27.0% 27.1%
28.2% 28.5%
19.1%19.7% 19.9% 19.7% 20.1% 20.0%
9.2%10.0% 9.5%
13.1% 13.6% 13.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011
Regional SB Dollar Share Regional SB Vendor Share Regional SB Contract Share
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SB-FRIENDLY METRO AREAS: MOSTLY COASTAL
13
Metropolitan Area FY 2005 FY 2010 FY05-FY10 SB Total $ ∆ FY05 - FY10 FY005-FY10 SB Share
Washington-Baltimore, DC-MD-VA-WV CMSA $16,484,925,995 $22,962,513,029 $123,130,514,479 39.3% 26.9%
Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, CA CMSA $2,659,951,902 $3,164,356,442 $17,305,086,016 19.0% 3.8%
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA-NC MSA $1,990,883,861 $3,629,982,432 $16,568,328,242 82.3% 3.6%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ $2,726,303,795 $2,603,806,731 $16,741,936,652 -4.5% 3.7%
Boston-Worcester-Lawrence, MA-NH-ME-CT CMSA $1,469,058,634 $1,668,734,014 $10,619,869,441 13.6% 2.3%
San Diego, CA MSA $1,427,081,301 $1,696,368,491 $10,389,108,014 18.9% 2.3%
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-D $1,426,746,823 $1,643,620,395 $9,912,122,725 15.2% 2.2%
Huntsville, AL MSA $1,110,613,942 $1,703,117,153 $9,255,735,443 53.3% 2.0%
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA CMSA $1,337,057,979 $1,193,440,153 $8,304,723,901 -10.7% 1.8%
Atlanta, GA MSA $1,423,690,326 $1,035,618,342 $7,432,806,622 -27.3% 1.6%
All Other $33,137,501,053 $34,954,787,571 $228,193,417,150 5.5% 49.8%
Grand Total $65,193,815,610 $76,256,344,753 $457,853,648,685 17.0% 100.0%
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THE AGENCY PICTURE >>>>>>>>>>>>>
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DOD62.7%
DVA6.1%
DHS3.9%
HHS3.9%
GSA3.5%
USDA3.3%
DOI2.7%
NASA2.2%
DOE2.0%
DOJ1.7%
All Other8.1%
FY 2010 Agency Share of Overall SB Spending
AGENCY SB SPENDING 1: MOST STILL STRIVING TO ACHIEVE GOALS
15
Agency FY 2010 SB Total FY 2010 Agcy Total SB % Agcy SB Goal Goal Diff
DOD $60,381,459,185 $289,606,812,855 20.8% 22.2% -1.4%
DVA $5,846,657,111 $15,755,419,847 37.1% 28.7% 8.4%
DHS $3,744,984,563 $11,393,873,181 32.9% 31.9% 1.0%
HHS $3,742,668,860 $17,079,927,359 21.9% 19.0% 2.9%
GSA $3,364,421,155 $12,376,685,706 27.2% 35.7% -8.6%
USDA $3,225,295,620 $5,830,583,012 55.3% 49.9% 5.4%
DOI $2,583,437,559 $5,923,848,699 43.6% 55.5% -11.9%
NASA $2,079,242,133 $15,014,414,494 13.8% 15.4% -1.5%
DOE $1,885,282,119 $25,470,394,508 7.4% 5.9% 1.5%
DOJ $1,662,721,091 $5,822,276,014 28.6% 36.8% -8.3%
STATE $1,457,681,293 $3,516,726,748 41.4% 37.0% 4.4%
DOC $1,406,821,538 $3,781,838,793 37.2% 50.8% -13.6%
DOL $816,528,139 $2,470,467,659 33.1% 33.4% -0.4%
TREAS $684,951,844 $2,324,226,881 29.5% 29.4% 0.1%
EPA $679,573,028 $1,633,070,291 41.6% 39.8% 1.8%
DOT $676,743,907 $2,036,948,731 33.2% 43.3% -10.1%
HUD $419,817,159 $1,104,800,503 38.0% 66.3% -28.3%
SSA $359,807,149 $1,001,989,190 35.9% 36.7% -0.8%
DED $292,880,141 $1,629,285,462 18.0% 12.8% 5.2%
AID $109,427,262 $1,366,536,180 8.0% 19.6% -11.6%
FY 2010 SB Utilization At Billion Dollar+ Agencies
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SOCIOECONOMIC GOALS: AGENCIES STRIVE FOR GREATER UTILIZATION
16
$0
$5,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$15,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$25,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$35,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
Socioeconomic Group Procurement Spending FY 2006 - FY 2010
SDB 8(a) WOB HUBZone SDVOSB
Socioeconomic Goal Achievement
FY 2006 - FY 2010
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
SDB 4.26% 4.42% 5.15% 5.87% 7.91%
8(a) 3.74% 4.19% 4.76% 5.43% 5.80%
WOB 3.63% 3.71% 3.85% 4.07% 4.62%
HUBZone 2.10% 2.25% 2.42% 2.78% 2.88%
SDVOSB 0.91% 1.08% 1.58% 2.06% 2.64%
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OPPORTUNITIES: HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT?
17
FPDS-NG Contracts Data, FY 2010: $533 billion on 946,689 active contracts;
$137 billion on 734,014 new contracts FedBizOpps, FY 2010: 98,087 pre-bid notices* * Includes: Pre-solicitation; Intent To Bundle
Requirements; Combined Synopsis/Solicitation; Fair Opportunity/Limited Sources Justification; Sources Sought; Justification & Approval
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MULTIPLE AWARD CONTRACTS: INCREASING PRESENCE
18
1,1271,525 1,849
2,2562,586
1,010
1,744
1,978
2,517
3,084
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
Large/Other Small
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MULTIPLE AWARD CONTRACTS: SB IMPACTS
19
$38.4$44.8
$54.6 $59.1$64.9
$6.7
$8.8
$11.3$13.5
$15.9
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
$90.0
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
Large/Other Small
14.9%16.4% 17.1%
18.6%19.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
Small Business Share of MAC Dollars FY 2006 - FY 2010
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MULTIPLE AWARD CONTRACTS: UNANTICIPATED CONSEQUENCES?
20
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MULTIPLE AWARD CONTRACTS: NOT GOING AWAY SOON
21
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WHERE TO LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES >>>>>>>>>>>>>
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AGENCY SB SPENDING: WHO IS DRIVING SMALL BUSINESS GROWTH?
23
Agency FY05-FY10 SB Tot FY05-FY10 SB % FY05-FY10 Tot $ ∆ FY05-FY10 SB $ ∆ SB-Overall Growth %
DOD $329,239,494,148 65.2% 30.6% 28.0% -2.6%
DVA $24,389,699,738 4.8% 77.9% 180.6% 102.7%
DHS $22,613,114,047 4.5% 24.4% 24.9% 0.5%
GSA $16,858,422,634 3.3% 22.4% 23.4% 1.0%
HHS $16,557,217,411 3.3% 119.3% 72.0% -47.3%
USDA $14,936,657,542 3.0% 54.6% 63.0% 8.4%
DOI $12,817,304,790 2.5% 26.9% 14.9% -12.0%
NASA $12,013,483,285 2.4% 19.8% 17.4% -2.4%
DOJ $9,172,617,072 1.8% 42.8% 24.1% -18.8%
DOE $8,781,688,704 1.7% 10.5% 104.7% 94.2%
All Other $37,352,315,935 7.4% 60.0% 53.7% -6.3%
Total $504,732,015,307
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SOCIOECONOMIC SET-ASIDES: STEADY INCREASES OVER TIME
24
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
Largest Small Business Set-aside Programs, Spending FY 2006 - FY 2010
SB 8a SDVOSB HUBZone
SA Type FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY06 - FY10 ∆
SB $17,244 $17,211 $19,436 $23,611 $28,109 63.0%
8a $10,351 $11,794 $14,131 $17,033 $17,690 70.9%
SDVOSB $373 $876 $2,236 $3,029 $4,389 1076.8%
HUBZone $911 $1,235 $1,697 $2,809 $3,132 244.0%
RSB $399 $114 $206 $216 $76 -80.9%
SDB $116 $99 $79 $57 $36 -68.9%
VET $0 $24 $70 $103 $101 320.3%
BuyInd $42 $36 $49 $41 $43 2.0%
HBCU $42 $22 $23 $9 $15 -64.2%
ESB $8 $3 $9 $10 $12 44.0%
VSB $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 -123.8%
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IT SCHEDULE SPENDING: DECLINING SALES
25
$6,753$5,838 $5,212 $5,528 $4,800
$4,598
$4,371$4,194 $4,082
$4,321
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
Large & Small Business Spending on the IT Schedule, FY 06 - FY10
Large/Other Small
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SMALL BUSINESS SCHEDULES: A GROWING PRESENCE
26
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
$700,000,000
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
8A STARS FY 2006 - FY 2010
8A STARS
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
VETS FY 2006 - FY 2010
VETS
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FEDERAL MARKET ANALYSIS: WHERE SB SHARE IS GROWING FAST
27
Overall Small Bus FY08-10 Value # of Recompetes
FSG FSG Name FY08-10 $ Size FY08-10 SB $Size SB Mkt % 3-Yr Growth 3-Yr GrowthSB ∆ - Mkt ∆ Of Recompetes Next 24 Mos.
88 LIVE ANIMALS $188,445,892 $100,925,392 53.6% 134.2% 574.0% 439.7% $38,021,379 66
96 ORES, MINERALS AND PRIMAR $10,281,936,082 $5,110,309,503 49.7% 96.1% 484.6% 388.5% $481,384,377 37
22 RAILWAY EQUIPMENT $738,070,095 $39,336,659 5.3% -58.9% 237.5% 296.4% $672,234,588 6
E PURCHASE OF STRUCTURES/FA $266,924,249 $63,018,495 23.6% -14.1% 217.0% 231.1% $24,588,843 44
P SALVAGE SERVICES $1,752,714,631 $877,836,832 50.1% 17.4% 144.1% 126.7% $215,349,232 103
42 FIRE FIGHTING RESCUE SAFE $3,853,297,910 $2,596,329,992 67.4% 15.9% 64.6% 48.7% $198,703,649 265
L Technical Representative $7,406,020,884 $637,497,291 8.6% 0.4% 46.1% 45.7% $3,047,978,751 439
99 JEWELRY & MISC ITEMS $18,977,617,867 $2,517,511,995 13.3% -69.9% -26.6% 43.4% $764,796,898 780
45 PLUMBING, HEATING, WASTE $488,599,139 $287,150,203 58.8% -10.7% 28.1% 38.8% $30,490,071 246
Y CONSTRUCT OF STRUCTURES/F $115,597,080,819 $29,935,152,374 25.9% 17.0% 54.2% 37.2% $28,548,335,539 3,704
Top 10 Accelerating Small Business Markets
Where Small Business Is Gaining Ground In the Federal Government
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FUNDING OFFICES: WHO SPENDS THE MONEY?
28
fo_name fo_city fostate 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Grand Total
NAVSEA HQ Washington Navy Yar DC $2,170,142,252 $2,831,410,697 $2,758,152,788 $2,699,543,799 $2,061,075,583 $12,520,325,119
COMMANDER QUANTICO VA $2,032,419,843 $1,226,388,789 $911,795,817 $1,105,878,316 $1,808,025,629 $7,084,508,394
NAVAL AIR SYSTEMS COMMAND ARLINGTON VA -$5,764 $1,223,873 $0 $1,218,110
CRYSTAL CITY VA $0 $0
Patuxent River MD $434,198,521 $959,162,414 $1,394,858,222 $992,291,132 $1,317,069,330 $5,097,579,620
PATUXENT RIVER NAVA MD $393,682 $38,564,646 $1,364,589 $40,322,917
IRS/CONTRACTS & ACQUISITION DIVIS WASHINGTON DC $863,480,415 $982,658,707 $996,610,264 $497,798,633 $1,060,016,777 $4,400,564,796
PR W6DS PEO SOL Fort Belvoir VA $250,684,411 $874,247,747 $1,271,131,402 $745,711,057 $625,260,165 $3,767,034,782
DISA SKYLINE FIVE FALLS CHURCH VA $637,552,901 $583,311,560 $626,026,776 $713,266,162 $752,752,595 $3,312,909,994
NAVY, DEPARTMENT OF THE ANNAPOLIS MD $1,581 $2,517,840 $3,445,716 $4,756,270 $10,721,406
FORT GEORGE G. MEAD MD $979,388 $979,388
NORFOLK VA $482,498 $194,428 $406,554 $217,792 $26,536 $1,327,808
WASHINGTON DC $77,338,239 $1,029,464,320 $635,815,746 $436,618,131 $391,630,655 $2,570,867,092
NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER AIR DIV Patuxent River MD $263,917,606 $298,701,398 $259,838,290 $383,206,963 $569,732,429 $1,775,396,687
DIVISION OF PROCUREMENT SERVICES BALTIMORE MD $3,030,464 $11,343,856 $55,426,580 $244,349,752 $1,185,284,038 $1,499,434,690
Bethesda MD $4,420,614 $3,507,893 $3,623,150 $4,491,268 $25,087,860 $41,130,784
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GOVERNMENTWIDE DIRECTIVES: POSITION FOR THE LONG TERM
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QUESTONS >>>>>>>>>>>>>