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Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses from a Governance Perspective Sarah N. Repucci UNDP Consultant 7 July 2010

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Page 1: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance

Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

from a Governance PerspectiveSarah N. Repucci

UNDP Consultant

7 July 2010

Page 2: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Presentation Outline

Overview of the Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis project

Research approach

Preliminary findings

Page 3: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Presentation Outline

Overview of the Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis project

Research approach

Preliminary findings

Page 4: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis

Aim: To develop research on crisis responses from a governance perspective and support policy debates to outline a new governance reform agenda for Eastern Europe and the former Soviet states, during and post-economic crisis.

Page 5: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis

Countries covered

Page 6: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Presentation Outline

Overview of the Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis project

Research approach

Preliminary findings

Page 7: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis

Situation analysis mapping

country overviews

Case studies

Paper on crisis responses from a governance capacity perspective

Page 8: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis

Country overviews

Page 9: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Presentation Outline

Overview of the Governance Reforms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis project

Research approach

Preliminary findings

Page 10: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Stimulus and Austerity

stimulus plan stability, populism, fiscal cushion

austerity measures cases of currency peg, aspiration to euro adoption, external demands

combination in tandem, or in succession

Page 11: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Stimulus and Austerity

spending cuts both

Page 12: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Currency Pegs and Devaluation

€€

€

€

€€

devaluation€ currency peg€ uses the euro

€

€

€

Page 13: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Stimulus and Austerity

Governance implications: stimulus more popular among populations elections often preceded switch to austerity vulernable groups better protected than in the

past

Page 14: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Policy import and home-grown responses

external aid strings attached EU accession form of policy import some home-grown responses

Page 15: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

IMF and other loans

$540 million

$3.5 billion

$1.57 billion$1.2 billion

$25 billion

€7.5 billion

$574 million

$21 billion

$17.1 billion$3.88 billion

$152.6 million

$16.4 billion

Page 16: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Policy import and home-grown responses

Governance implications: many could not meet IMF commitments some resistance to IFI aid home-grown more popular, but effective?

Page 17: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Policy consensus and political deadlock

challenging political circumstances delayed or dampened responses most turmoil was not directly caused by the

economic crisis, but exacerbated by it

consensus rapid implementation some anti-crisis measures were struck

down in the courts

Page 18: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Established frameworks and ad hoc measures

established frameworks could be enabling or restrictive

ad hoc measures e.g. emergency spending

functional reviews

Page 19: Patterns of crisis responses and implications for governance Regional Policy Roundtable in Eastern Europe and Central Asia on Economic Crisis Responses

Sarah [email protected]


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