patricio mansilla - ppp in mongolia
TRANSCRIPT
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Mongolia’s gateway logistics park
in Zamyn Uud: Potential PPP?
Chemonics International
Ulan Bator – Mongolia
July 2010
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Agenda
1. PPP Project for Zamyn Uud logistics park
2. Potential center of revenues for PPP
3. Current demand
4. Revenue estimation for PPP
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1. PPP project for Zamyn Uud
logistics park
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PRC
Weigh
Scale
Manual
inspection
Scanner
inspection
Document
check
Rail-Rail transfer
Discharge
from
PRCRR
Load to
UBTZ
Road-Rail
transfer
Overland by road
Overland by rail
Mixed
Loads
Homogenous
Loads
Preliminary
GOM clearances
ENTER BY RAIL
Final
GOM
clearance
s
Final GOM
clearances
UB
Zamyn Uud flow of cargo
ENTER BY ROAD
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Survey in Zamyn Uud
April 16th to 19th 2008Problem % of Complains
Waiting time for Permission Letter in Erlian 68%
Stay overnight for closure of Mongolian border 94%
Waiting time for weight in scale zone 64%
Road to scanner in bad condition 53%
Traffic jam and chaos in waiting area for inspection 55%
Traffic jam and chaos in waiting area for customs for lack of
space
75%
Lack of road or in bad condition 79%
Transshipment to the wagon is slow and number of wagons
is insufficient
83%
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End of
transportation
Provision of wagons for transshipment
Road to rail transshipment
Areas covered in Questionnaire 4
Interview point 4
Documentation for specialized
Specialized inspection
Customs documentation
Physical inspection of mixed goods
Documentation for specialized
Specialized inspection
Customs documentation
Scanner inspection homogeneous
cargo
Areas covered in Questionnaire 3
Goods loaded in Erlian
Chinese border
Mongolian border
Scale
Beginning of
transportation
Interview point 1
Areas covered in Questionnaire 2
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Value of import cargo
processed in Zamyn Uud by truck
Year Value Million US$
2004 54.2
2005 72.3
2006 96.0
2007 208.0
2008 368.2
Total Accumulated 2004- 2008 798.7
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Value of import cargo
Zamyn Uud by truck monthly and weekly
PeriodValue by month
Million $
Value by week
Million $
Average 2008 30,686,883.2 7,671,720.8
Average 9 months 2008
(excluding nov-dec-jan)36,480,003.2 9,120,000.8
Average May-Jun-July 44,512,630.6 11,128,157.6
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Cost of lack of infrastructure
Zamyn Uud weekly ($ dollars)
Period
20% of
opportunity
cost
5% of indirect
costs
Total weekly
opportunity
cost
Average 2008 1,534,344.1 383,586 1,917,930.2
Average 9 months
2008
(excluding Nov-
Dec-Jan)
1,824,000.1 456,000 2,280,000.2
Average May-Jun-
July2,225,631.5 556,407 2,782,039.4
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2. Potential center of revenues
for PPP
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Logistic Park
Development Co.
ParkingReal Estate
Development
Commercial
Services
Road to Rail
Imports
Rail to Road
Exports
Rail to Rail
Imports
Revenues from the
Business or fee
Revenues from the
Business or fee
Tariff for rent m2
and % of business
Fee Fee Fee
WarehouseGas Station
Fee Fee
Flow of revenues
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3. Current demand
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Current demand
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Annual import tons and annual growth rate
in Zamyn Uud
YearTons by
truck
Tons by
railwayTotal Growth rate
2004 311,627 212,664524,292
-
2005 362,563 222,957585,520
11.7%
2006 416,260 228,300644,561
10.1%
2007 698,593 293,589992,182
53.9%
2008 1,189,794 350,7441,540,539
55.3%
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Total cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud by road and railway 2004-2008
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
January 23,866.153 29,277.436 30,225.754 31,966.569 87,333.419 40,533.866
February 19,207.254 22,397.425 32,065.066 29,440.064 81,379.371 36,897.836
March 36,015.163 43,184.018 43,636.150 48,330.923 165,170.691 67,267.389
April 53,873.209 62,905.096 57,763.667 78,421.236 187,587.026 88,110.047
May 57,468.028 57,914.687 62,581.153 86,671.477 189,039.761 90,735.021
June 67,266.459 62,716.385 74,825.930 104,834.253 160,690.731 94,066.751
July 47,856.327 67,932.232 69,396.434 152,588.527 169,283.233 101,411.351
August 49,986.145 64,283.940 75,185.164 130,501.745 117,651.584 87,521.716
September 55,643.238 59,210.501 67,203.198 96,206.249 129,331.700 81,518.977
October 46,706.214 46,979.934 59,773.490 97,003.042 125,471.351 75,186.806
November 33,835.384 39,840.188 39,919.603 66,490.841 68,038.323 49,624.868
December 32,568.693 28,879.147 31,986.077 69,727.999 59,561.815 44,544.746
Total 524,292.268 585,520.989 644,561.685 992,182.925 1,540,539.007
Average 43,691.022 48,793.416 53,713.474 82,681.910 128,378.251
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17Months
2004 20052006
2007
2008
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Monthly comparison total 2004-2008
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3.1 Import cargo (tons) processed
in Zamyn Uud by road/truck
Road-Rail
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Annual import tons and annual growth rate
cargo by truck
Year Tons Growth rate
2004 311,627
2005 362,563 16%
2006 416,260 14.8%
2007 698,593 67.8%
2008 1,189,794 70%
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Months
2004 20052006
2007
2008
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Monthly comparison road 2004-2008
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3.2 Import cargo (tons) processed
in Zamyn Uud by railway
Rail to Rail
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Annual imports tons and annual growth rate
cargo by railway
Year Tons Growth rate
2004 212,664 -
2005 222,957 4.8%
2006 228,300 2.3%
2007 293,589 28.5%
2008 350,744 19.5%
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3.3 Import cargo (tons) processed
in Zamyn Uud
Rail to Road
Exports
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Annual transshipment export cargo (tons)
YearTons by
truckTons by railway Total
2004 21.195 707.259 728.454
2005 19.984 1.024.130 1.044.114
2006 23.903 1.309.758 1.333.661
2007 44.631 1.167.951 1.212.583
2008 53.663 1.977.017 2.030.680
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3.4 Import cargo (tons) processed
in Zamyn Uud
January by type of product
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Type of products imports 2008
46%
11%9%
11%
3%
20%
Salt; sulphur; stone and
cement.
Articles of stone, plaster,
cement or asbestos
Iron and steel.
Vegetables, tubers fruits and
cereals
Wood and articles of wood
Others
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3.5 Import cargo (tons) processed
in Zamyn Uud
January – April 2009
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Cargo (tons) imports processed in Zamyn Uud by
road and railway
January-April 2004-2009
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
January 23866.2 29277.4 30225.8 31966.6 87333.4 34445.4
February 19207.3 22397.4 32065.1 29440.1 81379.4 25981.1
March 36015.2 43184.0 43636.2 48330.9 165170.7 35359.2
April 53873.2 62905.1 57763.7 78421.2 187587.0 67985.0
Total 132961.8 157764.0 163690.6 188158.8 521470.5 163770.7
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5. Revenues estimation for the
PPP LPZU
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Transshipment
revenues
$3.8 million
Road to Rail
$ 2.11 million
Rail to Rail
$1.56 million
Rail to Road
$0.13 million
2008
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First estimation of the business
logistics park Zamyn Uud Case A
Discount rate
30 years
PV basic
revenues
$ Million
PV potential
revenues
$ Million
PV total
revenues
$ Million
10% 61.2 1.6 62.8
12% 48.7 1.3 50.0
15% 37.0 1.0 38.0
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Discount
rate 30
years
PV total
revenues
(0.5%)
$ Million
Case B
PV total
revenues
(1%)
$ Million
Case C
PV total
revenues
(1,5%)
$ Million
Case D
PV total
revenues
(1.8%)
$ Million
Case E
PV total
revenues
$ Million
(2%)
Case F
10% 47.2 50.7 55.3 58.9 61.7
12% 39.8 42.5 45.9 48.4 50.5
15% 32.0 33.8 36.0 37.7 38.9
PV of revenues
logistics park Zamyn Uud
Cases B to F
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0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
2011-2040
US
D
0.50% 1% 1.50% 1.80% 2% QRVD
Comparison of revenues estimation
transshipment cargo
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THANK YOU