pat murphy cs for may 2009 presentations apr 29
TRANSCRIPT
Plan C – Community Solutions
forHousing, Transportation
and Food
2009 Sustainable Energy SummitUniversity of Massachusetts,
Amherst
May 2, 2009
Presented by
Pat Murphy – Executive DirectorCommunity Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387
Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions
Founded in 1940 to support Small Local Communities
Represents today’s trend to re-localization/localization
Humans develop optimally in a place over generations Our Home Town
Small communities under assault since end of WWII Made possible by cheap energy
In 2004 began focus on Peak Oil and Climate Change The factors that will lead to small community resurgence
New Watchword Needed!1987 – Sustainability, 2009 – Survivability Three Interrelated Threats to Humanity
Shrinking amounts of Fossil Fuels – “Peak Energy” Implies a declining standard of living
Increasing CO2 (From burning fossil fuels) Threatens life on earth
Record Inequity – from cheap fuels and cheap credit More violence and suffering Record levels of alienation
World Facing Energy Decline
ASPO says Peak Oil occurred 2008 IEA World Energy Annual 2009 – Acknowledged Peak Oil
World Threatened with Climate Crisis
CO2 – 387 ppm; Increasing 2.1 ppm annually James Hansen’s new theoretical max. – 350 ppm!!
World Inequity Highest in History
Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan Illich – 1974 U.S. Military predicting resource wars
Modern Technology – Problem or Solution?
10,000 years of Agrarian living ~250 years of technology living 65 years hyper-technology living
Modern world is an “energy” world
Technology is limited Fuel cell car 30 years late Electric cars 90 years old Fusion 40 years late Biofuels have not worked Power plants have changed little
Energy sources have major liabilities Fossil Fuels and Uranium
Oil and Gas Not enough resourcesCoal–Tar Sands–Oil Shale Not enough atmosphereNuclear fission Not enough resourcesNuclear fusion Too difficult
RenewablesBiomass (burn food for fuel) Not enough air/water/soilHydroelectric Not enough sites Hydrogen folly Needs energy to be producedPhotovoltaic & Wind Power Proven – But will they scale?
Why are there so few options? Point of diminishing returns? Has anything been added since crisis of 1970s?
Energy devices have major liabilities Fuel Cell cars a 30 year debacle
$17 billion spent – few cars
EV a less expensive debacle Few billion $ spent – ~ 4,000 made
PHEV next techno fix – but just a coal car (no better than hybrid)
Green Building not very green – LEED and Energy Star 15 – 30% Savings at best: need 80 – 90%
Clean coal (carbon sequestration) means burying CO2 for centuries Completely unproven
Four Technology (Societal) Options
Plan A – Black (fossil fuels) Technology – more oil, coal, oil shale Plan B – Green (wind/solar/corn) TechnologyPlan D – Pessimistic View – possible, but little value in discussingPlan C – High Satisfaction “Low-E” Way of Living
Plan C – Curtail Consumption First Community Survival Strategies
We must cut energy use – fast !
Cuts must be deep IPCC: 80–90% by 2050; 4–5% yearly
Our focus: Cut energy under personal control House, Food, Cars – 2/3 US energy
Take responsibility Can’t wait for government Can’t wait for techno-fixes
Plan C – High Satisfaction, Less Energy
A “Community” Context A “sufficiency” life style Conserving, Sharing & Saving vs. Competing, Hoarding & Consuming
Context where curtailment is not suffering Happiness is relationships, not stuff Live simply that others may simply live
Community is a cooperation principle Capitalism/Competition destroying life Happiness is local low–energy cooperative living
“If You Can’t Measure It, You Can’t Manage It!” – Per Capita Thinking Most people don’t grasp energy accounting
EROEI, LCA, Embodied energy vs. operating energy
Understanding comes by per capita comparisons Country comparisons are always misleading Media obscures per capita – lets us feel righteous
There are three key “macro” considerations CO2 Generation (tonnes per capita per year) Energy Consumption (BOE per capita per year) Income (PPP) ($ per capita per year)
The numbers can be motivating – or discouraging!
CO2 – 90% Reduction require for Survival Per Capita Comparison
33 most populous nations 80% of world population
Survival (sustainable) level 1 tonne CO2 yearly per capita 4 tonne CO2 world average today 19 tonne CO2 U.S. average today
U.S. greatest CO2 contributor 4.5% of world made 27% of CO2
Need a 90% cut
World Breakdown – CO2, (Oil, $)
Rich world is most of OECD (Org. Econ. Cooper. & Devl.)
OECD–L = OECD minus US, Turkey, Mexico (moved to ROW)
U.S. is a separate category
US Personal Consumption Breakdown
Population: U.S. – 300M, OECD–L – 700M, ROW – 5,700M
U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home) Each sector uses more than total energy use of ROW
Setting Reduction Targets Housing – 15.4 BOE/c: cut 80%
Deep Building Retrofits – German Passive House as model
Cars – 13.5 BOE/c: cut 75% Smart Jitney ride sharing – shared transit
Food – 10 BOE/c: cut 90% Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial animal products Change your diet Eat locally grown non industrial food
Where do we get the Low–E Technology? Not in the U.S.!! Look at Kyoto signers
#1 Target – US Homes – Size Matters Most
Per capita square foot 1950 – 260; 2008 – 800
New US home size – 2,200 sq. ft.
1,000 sq. ft. in 1950
US residences almost twice as large as Europe or Japan
Small is beautiful–and survivable
U.S. Energy Use in Buildings
50% of US energy is used in buildings 40% operating, 10% embodied (building) energy
US has about 130 million residences (80 million buildings) New building ~1.0 million units yearly
“Green Building” – too little, too late LEED, Energy Star ineffective
Programs reduce energy use by 15% – 30% (need 80% – 90%) “Green buildings” are less than 5% of new construction
And new construction only 1 – 2 % of total buildings
Would take about 75 years to turn over the building stock
Home Energy Reductions – Easiest Lighting easiest – CFLs reduce energy use by factor of three
Plug leaks: 10 – 20% of heat loss
Insulate attic – easy fix
Window coverings cheap and fast
Home Energy Reductions – Harder Replace windows
Replace appliances or do without
Thicken the “building envelope”
Move furnace/ductwork into the conditioned space
Thick Tight Building Envelope-The Core
Based on Super Insulated House of 1970s (Shurcliff) Very similar to current German “Passive House”
The German Passive House
Passive Houses use 90% less energy than conventional houses In heating and cooling Have no external heat source or air conditioning
13 Annual Passive House Conference Held two weeks ago in Frankfurt
Over 100 presenters
Tours of homes/schools
1,200 attendees from around the world
About 20,000 units built to date
18 years since first build – a maturing technology Windows, heat exchangers, insulation,
sealants
Achieving the 90% reduction
Must Retrofit Existing Buildings 1,000 sq. foot. Carriage House
Thicken walls, roof, floors First floor 4” rigid, 7 ½ “ regular Double wall added – 12’ total Roof rafters from 2x4 to 2x12
Heat exchanger added
Replaced windows
Need deep retrofits to 130 million US residences
And to five million commercial building
Retrofit Building Energy Savings and $$ Wide range of estimates to redo all homes
130 million residence @ $40,000 is $5 trillion. Impossible? Maybe – only 7 years of US real military budget Or a year or two bailing out derivatives!
Far cheaper than paying fuel bills – e.g. 2008 to 2050 (42 yr) Save 10 boe yearly– estimate $300 boe eqv. in 2012+ $3,000 yearly for 40 years = $120,000
Culture might change to 1950s values – homeowners do work! Any serious group must develop retrofitting skills
#2 Target – The Private Car U.S. has 210 million cars/SUVs/pickups
U.S. has 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide U.S. cars/trucks generate 45% of auto CO2 in world Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime
75 million new cars and trucks are built each year worldwide Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly
U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg, Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg
Replacing this fleet with new cars would take decades Hybrids less than 1% of cars after 10 years This is a little known “scale” issue
New Mass Transit Success Questionable
Mass transit typically just supplements cars Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit
Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile) Private Car – 3,496 SUV – 4,329 Bus Transit – 4,318 Airplane – 3,959 Amtrak Train – 2,760 Rail transit – 2,569 Vanpool – 1,294
How much and how long for a mass transit system? Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?
Efficiency Ineffective – (Jeavon’s Paradox)
Efficiency isn’t the answer From 750 million 30 mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg cars? 3 times the efficiency – 5 times the number of cars 1–2% yearly tech improvements and population increase 2–4% yearly oil depletion rate
What About a Jitney?
A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule
An unlicensed taxicab
Essence of the Jitney Mass transit with cars, not buses
Common in 85% of world
The “Smart” Jitney Proposal Every existing car is a jitney
“Shared transit “ – not mass transit
Made possible by new communications/GPS technology A software problem – not hardware; All components exist!
Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules
“Smart” enough to cut transport energy use 75–80%
Status – Operational ! ! ! Avego of Ireland is first out of the box Should expect announcements soon in MA and CA First conference held in April at MIT
#3 Target – Food May be the hardest change – behavior changes
But the easiest physically – no new technology
Step 1 – stop eating factory meat and processed foods Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than cars
Suffering of food animals is beyond belief As little known as inequity
Garden and buy locally grown food CS has its own garden – supports CSA’s
John Michael Greer – Organic garden is contemporary!!
Local Work in Yellow Springs Council formed Electrical System Task Force
Resulted in cancelling $3 million new substation At same time, withdrew from Amp Ohio coal plant
Council just formed Energy Task Force for long range planning
CS Board Member started house energy audit company
CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy Partnership Will review town’s energy use
Different than token sign ups for Architecture 2030 or Kyoto Must measure use and design solutions
Crisis Is Approaching Quickly
Peak Oil may have already occurred – July 2008 IEA November 2008 report – acknowledges depletion
Climate Change is extremely serious – IPCC report “desperate” Artic ice melt is accelerating
Survivability requires 80% reduction of energy use (4% yearly) “Incrementalism is death”.. Stephen Tanner (BioHaus)
No time to hope for “breakthrough” technologies – CCS, PHEV
Must change habits and way of life – become different people
Use intermediate existing technologies
Financial Crisis Creates Opportunity Financial corporations have defrauded–swindled–cheated us
Will mean cutbacks in energy exploration and R & D Car companies are near bankruptcy This will end our love affair with corporate America
Important to consider inequity in post great depression period Up to 1929: Very high inequity 1930s – 1980s: focus on increasing equity 1980 – 2008: Inequity buildup as in pre 1929 period
Curtailment will be unavoidable – and that is not all bad In the depression community flourished!!
Expect a Community Resurgence Today is like pre-depression period (roaring 20s)
Things were declining before October 1929 – like now
The financial crisis is a crisis of character The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi schemes Consumer debt triggered both depressions
Free Market has become a license to steal
Community provides the alternative value system Cooperation, not competition Values of “caring and sharing”
Summary CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community
No techno–fix will maintain current way-of-life
CS projects are directed at personal 2/3 of energy consumption Food, House, Car (or 38.6 BOE/c of 57.8 BOE/c) Working with Low E building organizations – ACI, PHIUS Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland (Avego) & India
Our view – this is an exciting challenge World sacrificed community for consumerism Horrible mistake – community will be reborn
When community is strong energy (materialism) less important