past warming and ragweed season us national climate assessment, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Past warming and ragweed season
US National Climate Assessment, 2014
Future summers warmer than warmest on record
Today’s 1 billion at risk for hunger could double by mid-century.
Battisi and Naylor, Science 2009
PRECIPITATIONClimate Variability and Change
U.S. CCSP, 2008 Globally Averaged
In Future, when it rains…it will pour.
By mid-century, Chicago region may experience 50-120% increase in CSO events (Patz et al. 2008)
At least 24 died in landslide on March 22, 2014, north of Seattle
March, 2014, was the wettest in history for Seattle
SEA LEVEL RISEClimate Variability and Change
US National Climate Assessment, 2014
Sea level affecting US populations
Schneider & Curtis, 2011
OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEALTH “CO-BENEFITS”
Adaptation and Mitigation
Reducing fossil fuel use:An opportunity for improving health
We can reduce:
The 3 million annual deaths from urban air pollution
The loss of 3.2 million deaths, from physical inactivity
Global Burden of Disease Report, 2013
• Cost of cleaner energy:
< $30/ tCO2
West et. al. 2013
• Benefits of cleaner energy:$200*/ tCO2
WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER???
(* Range: $50 to $380)
For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater
20% fewer car trips:Change in O3 & PM 2.5
Grabow et al (2011)
20% fewer car trips:Change in O3 & PM 2.5
Grabow et al (2011)
• >500 lives saved/yr
• 100,000s of Hospital admissions avoided
• >$4 billion in avoided mortality and health care costs
And if those short trips (< 5 mi. round-trip) were done by bicycle, the fitness benefit would save >700 lives /yr and another $4 billion dollars in avoided mortality costs
Active Transportation, Diabetes
National Walking and Bicycling Alliance 2014
Active Commuting and Health--Evidence Shows:
• U.S. cities with enhanced levels of active transport experience health benefits obesity and diabetes rates 20% and 23% lower (Pucher et al. 2010)
• Active commuting in Finland reduces 10-year risk of chronic heart disease events (Hu et al. 2007)
• High levels of active commuting in China result in reduced risk of colon cancer (Hou et al. 2004)
• Active Commuting has a protective effect on cardiovascular outcomes, including mortality, coronary heart disease incidents, stroke, hypertension, and diabetes (Hamer et al. 2008)
• San Francisco Bay Area study found increasing biking and walking by 20 minutes/day would reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes by 14% and decrease (Maizlish et al. 2013)
Dec. 2015 is fast approaching
Thank you.
Jonathan Patz, Director
[email protected] 21 to take place in Paris