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Passenger Shipping Industry Market Report Chances & challenges for ship brokers & agents Frederik Naumann, Opatija, October 2008

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Passenger Shipping Industry Market ReportChances & challenges for ship brokers & agents

Frederik Naumann, Opatija, October 2008

1. Overview: The passenger shipping industry

2. Industry relevance for ship brokers & agents

3. Evolution and perspectives of cruise shipping

4. Cruise shipping opportunities for port agents

5. Outlook: Ferry industry opportunities for brokers & agents

Contents

Slide 2/14

Overview: The passenger shipping industry

Slide 3/14

Passenger shipping industry

Cruise shipping Ferry shipping

(Niche: Cruise ferries)

• Vacation at sea

• Carrying purely passengers

• Not serving regular routes

• Not serving transport demand

Part of the tourism sector

• Based on transport demand

• Carrying passengers & cargo

• Trading on regular routes

• Increasing focus on cargo

Part of the transportation & logistics sector

Industry relevance for ship brokers & agents

Slide 4/14

S&P/Chartering brokers Port agents

• Small market with few players

• High degree of specialisation

• High entrance barriers

• Often concentrating entirely on passenger ships

• More 'open' market

• Lower entrance barriers

• Requirements: Good staff, focus on quality, specific knowledge

• Potential as an 'add-on-business' for companies originating from cargo sector

• Potential as 'door opener' for corporate diversification

Cruise passengers based on cruises sold world-wide:

• 1995: about 5.72 million

• 2005: about 14.47 million (+ 152% in 10 years)

Evolution and perspectives of cruise shipping

Slide 5/14

Cruise passengers based on cruises sold in Europe:

• 1995: about 1.0 million

• 2005: about 3.3 million (+ 230% in 10 years)

• Land-based tourism in Europe grew by 45% during 1995 to 2005

Evolution and perspectives of cruise shipping

Slide 6/14

Yesterday's 'classic cruise ship'

● Size revolution

● Diversification● Segmentation

Evolution and perspectives of cruise shipping

Slide 7/14

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pas

seng

ers

R E V I E W F O R E C A S T

Cruise passengers world-wide 2000 to 2014 (Sources: G.P. Wild, T. Peisley, own research)

Evolution and perspectives of cruise shipping

Slide 8/14

The world's "cruise industry gravity centres"

Evolution and perspectives of cruise shipping

Slide 8/14

The world's "cruise industry gravity centres"

Balearic IslandsWestern Med

Spain

Ushuaia, Tierra del FuegoBeagle Channel, South Atlantic

Argentina

The Balearic Islands case:

• 1995: 455 calls with 294,179 passengers

• 2007: 708 calls with 1,219,886 passengers

• ∆ calls: + 56 %

• ∆ passengers: + 315 %

• ∆ average passengers per call: + 166 %

• Economic contribution from cruise pass. in 2007: 85 Mio. €

Evolution and perspectives of cruise shipping

Slide 9/14

(Sources: Autoridad Portuaria de Balears, "Sa Nostra" Caixa de Balears, Universitat de les Illes Balears)

The Ushuaia / Tierra del Fuego case:

• 1995/96: 139 calls with 14,122 passengers

• 2007/08: 377 calls with 117,266 passengers

• ∆ calls: + 171 %

• ∆ passengers: + 730 %

• ∆ average passengers per call: + 200 %

Evolution and perspectives of cruise shipping

Slide 10/14

(Sources: Dirección Provincial de Puertos, Gobierno de la Provincia de Tierra del Fuego, Antártida e Islas del Atlántico Sur, Prefectura Naval Argentina, Instituto Fueguino de Turismo)

• Cruise ships require first-class port agency services (quality!)

• Market continues to grow very fast

• Operators are looking for new ports of call

A growing market bears chances for new market players!

Cruise shipping opportunities for port agents

Slide 11/14

• Cruise ships require a wide range of services (lineshandling, luggage and provisions handling, passenger services etc.)

• Cruise operators are trying to have just "one point of contact"

• Port agents offering added value through a wide product portfolio have a competitive advantage

Attending cruise calls bears potential for diversification!

Cruise shipping opportunities for port agents

Slide 12/14

... but mind the Do's and Don'ts:

• Do be aware of the 'gold fever' among potential cruise ports

• Do a careful analysis of the cruise market in your region

• Do prepare carefully before entering the cruise business

• Do mind that, in most regions, cruise tourism is seasonal

• Do mind the relatively high volatility of this business.

• Don't promote unsuitable ports and destinations

• Don't rely entirely on the cruise business - or do so only after having drawn up an elaborate business plan.

Cruise shipping opportunities for port agents

Slide 13/14

• Also ferries (can) have a third-party port agent

• Ferry operators are under cost pressure and attempt to outsource certain parts of their operation, including port services

• Airline handling agents prove that third parties can provide handling of scheduled traffic highly efficient and in superior quality by utilizing synergy effects.

Ferry industry opportunities for bokers & agents

Slide 14/14

Let's discuss this in 2009!

Thank you for your attention!

Passenger Shipping Industry Market ReportChances & challenges for ship brokers & agents

Frederik Naumann, Opatija, October 2008