Foresight Studies of Global Food Security: Model-Based, Long-Run Scenario Analysis

Sherman Robinson, IFPRI

Dirk Willenbockel, IDS

Partnering for Impact - Brussels, 25 November 2013

IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security

Long-Run Issues for the Global Food System

• Can we feed a world of 9+ billion people in 2050 and later? • Can we do so sustainably in a world characterized by

increasing effects of climate change?• Many studies, many using “scenario analysis” and long-run

models of the global agricultural system• UK “Foresight Project” led by John Beddington, then UK

Chief Scientific Advisor

-> Upcoming JRC Foresight Global Food Security Study 2014:Assessing trends in view of guiding future EU policies

Five Challenges

A Balancing future agricultural demand and supply sustainably

C Ending Hunger

D Meeting the challenges of a low emissions world

BAddressing the threat of future volatility in the food system

Maintaining biodiversity and ecosys-tem services while feeding the world

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Climate Change: Average temperatures could increase substantially

Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)

SRES scenario differences small until after 2050 (but GCM differences big!)

Climate Change: Average annual precipitation, 2000-2050 CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm)

Climate Change: Average annual precipitation, 2000-2050 MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)

Conclusions from Scenario Analysis for the Foresight Project and IFPRI Report

• 20th century steady decline in agricultural prices is over• Sustainable economic growth is a powerful form of

climate change adaptation• Agricultural productivity research output in hands of

farmers can reduce poverty and improve climate change resilience • Open international trade is essential for dealing with

uncertainties and asymmetric shocks• Mitigation is critical

• Adaptation to 2050 is manageable, but less certain beyond

AgMIP: Model Comparison Project

General equilibrium models Partial equilibrium models

AIM NIES GCAM PNNL

ENVISAGE FAO/WB GLOBIOM IIASA

EPPA MIT IMPACT IFPRI

FARM USDA MAgPIE PIK

GTEM ABARES CAPRI IPTS

MAGNET LEI-WUR

10 global economic models focusing on agriculture

Nelson, G.C. et al (2013) Proceedings National Academy of Sciences USA (in press)

Special Issue Agricultural Economics 45(1), 2014 (in press)

Scenario Comparison

• Standardised scenarios and common protocol for reporting• S1: Reference scenario harmonised on SSP2: (1) population growth, (2) real

GDP growth, and (3) agricultural productivity trends, all under “current” climate. • No changes in policy orientation• Not designed to be realistic, but to provide a “benchmark” for model comparisons

• Variations to include uncertainties about major drivers• S2: SSP3 (pessimistic economic and demographic drivers)• S3-S6: Climate Change scenarios (RCP8.5 based on two GCMs and two crop models)• S7-S8: Bioenergy (S7: no 2nd generation biofuels; S8: 2nd generation biofuels)

• Key issues concern the future of agricultural prices, land use, food availability, and international trade

Reference Scenario: World Market Prices 2050(2005 = 1)

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1.0

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AIM ENVISAGE EPPA FARM GTEM MAGNET GCAM GLOBIOM IMPACT MAgPIE

Pric

e in

dex (

2005

** =

1)

AGR WHT CGR RIC RUM

** trended 2005, i.e. hypothetical in the absence of short-term shocks

2.2

General Equilibrium Models Partial Equilibrium Models

Key Findings - Reference Scenario

• Results continue to differ across models, despite significant efforts on harmonization of assumptions about drivers• Ag Price index +40% to -15% relative to global GDP deflator

• Qualitatively similar—20th century declines in prices will not continue in the 21st century• Global crop area +25% to -5%

• Range is narrower than comparisons at the beginning of the project • Comparison process helped to improve models• Some convergence through dialogue across teams• Variability small relative to comparison with past

• Real agricultural price index between 1960s and 2000s: -4% p.a. – Projections to 2050: -0.4% to +0.7% p.a.

Key Findings - Reference Scenario

• Selected results largely common across models• Global expansion of agricultural production, stronger for

sugar, oilseeds, ruminant meat, weaker for staples like wheat, rice• Strong consumption growth in Africa, Middle-East• Strong production growth in Africa, Latin America• Expanding net import requirements in MENA• Expanding crop exports from North America, Oceania• Expanding meat exports from Brazil

Climate Change Impacts on Crop Prices(Relative to reference scenario, 2050)

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AIM ENVISAGE FARM GTEM MAGNET GCAM GLOBIOM IMPACT MAgPIE CAPRI

% c

hang

e re

lativ

e to

Ref

eren

ce S

cena

rio

S1

S3 S4 S5 S6

Knowledge Gaps: Priorities for Future Research

• Representation of endogenous technical change in agriculture• How elastic is productivity in response to price changes and R&D?

• Representation of land use change• How elastic is ag land supply? How costly is land conversion?

• Representation of Demand• How elastic is demand in response to income and price changes

• Need for parallel progress in empirical research• Role of continued dialogue across disciplines and modelling teams