participation voting campaign activity –volunteer –contribute money (corporations are people)...
TRANSCRIPT
Participation
• Voting
• Campaign Activity– Volunteer – Contribute money (corporations are people)
• Contacting officials
• Group Activity
• Protest
Participation
• What trends in each mode?
• How does US compare?
• Which mode has greatest effect?
Participation
• Trends– Voting is way down in most nations
• But in US, we elect lots…
– Campaign activity is flat • 3% volunteer
– Donating flat in US (about 10%)– Activity of the wealthiest
• But trying to persuade others is way
% who tried to influence how others vote
Is this meaningful participation?
Participation
• Trends– Contacting officials up (?)
• People say they will, but do they• When? How? (email?)
– Group activity (30%)• Dalton says it’s up, • Putman it’s down• Does Internet act as social group?
Participation
• Trends– Protesting up?
• Most sign petitions, up most places• Boycott up US, GB• Demonstrate, way up in FR & Germany
– 17% in US
• Occupy down/flat– 2-4% in US
• Strike down/flat
Participation
• Again, what has most consequences for what government does?
• Which is easiest?
• What differences between how wealthy and others participate?
Voter Turnout
• Who votes, who doesn’t?
• Why?
• Why a decline?
• Is there a decline?
• What proposals to increase turnout?
Voter Turnout in US
• Is there a turnout problem?
• In US• about 55% vote in presidential elections
– up in 2004 & 2008 (+60%), down in 2012 (58%)
• about 35-40% vote in congressional elections
• Washington state above the national average
US Turnout Compared
• US turnout low compared to other est. democracies
• Other democracies also show decline
US Turnout Compared
• 1950s vs. 1990s /2000
• Few est. democracies have turnout increasing
Voter Turnout
• In the US• a steady decline (maybe)
• turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960
• turnout much lower now than 1900– why ??
• today, a lower % of eligible voters participate– farmore eligible voters now
Turnout Trend 1948-2012
• Large change in VAP vs. VEP turnout
• 58% VEP 2012
• Pool of eligible voters smaller vs. voting age population
M. McDonald data
Long term view
Voter Turnout
• 1896 90% drop to 62% in 1904– voter registration laws
– Jim Crow laws
• 1916 61% drop to 42% in 1920– suffrage to women
– size of eligible electorate doubled
• 1936 59% drop to 51% in 1948– WWII
• 1968 60% drop to 52% 1972– suffrage granted to 18 y/olds
Voter Turnout in US
• 1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962)
• 1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966)
• 1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970)
• 1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986)
• 1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990)
• 1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998)
• 2000 = 51% in pres (34% in 2002)
Voter Turnout in US
• Why a decline since 1890s?
• Old numbers from a different context– high mobilization
• labor intensive parties
– limited pool of eligible voters– fraud– more mobilization then vs. now?
Voter Turnout in US
• Why a decline 1960s - 2000?
• Demise of parties– campaigns now capital intensive (ads)– less direct contacts w/ voters– candidate centered politics– “party building” efforts (soft money) for
GOTV had little effect
Voter Turnout in US
• Why a decline?
• Demise of competition– Fewer US House races competitive vs.
1960s• even with demise of one-party south
– Fewer state legislative seats competitive– Campaign activity concentrated in rare,
competitive districts (and states)
Voter Turnout in US
• Why a decline?• Demise of Competition• Effects of competition
– 10% more competitive presidential race in state = 1% more turnout
• ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more
– 2 initiatives = 1% more– Senate race, Gov race...
Voter Turnout in US
• Why increase in 2004 & (less so) 2008?
• Were the stakes higher?
– 2000 election result?• 2004 6% increase over 2000
– some new issue?– candidate effects?
Voter Turnout in US
• Why a decline?
• Regulatory barriers – 30 day advance registration– vote only on day of election– must vote at specific location– limits on use of mail, absentee ballots– Prohibition on felons voting
Barriers to voting
• Lowest– ND, OR, UT, IA, ME, VT, NH, CA
• Highest– MS, AL, KY, VA, MD, FL, TX, LA
Voter Turnout in US
• Why a decline
• Regulator barriers– What effects of Election Day Registration
(EDR)?• Several states• 4.5% increase in presidential elections• 2.0% increase in midterm
Voter Turnout in US
• Election Day Registration – CA*, CO, CT, DC, ID, IL*, IA, ME, MT, MN, NH, WI, WY (ND
does not require registration)
– In GA 2014...42,000 registrations not processed (close Senate race)
– In WA• proposals to have shorter pre-reg. period but
not EDR
Voter Turnout in US
• Election Day Registration– What effect on electorate?
• makes voting more convenient
– Who will take advantage?• ???• ???
Voter Turnout in US
• Election Day Registration– Proponents:
• Democratic Party
– Opponents:• County Auditors• ‘Bureaucratic nightmare’
– requires more staff– vote provisional ballot?– check if registered/voted in other county
Voter Turnout
• Felon disenfranchisement– Two states do not ban from voting (Maine
and Vermont)– Some states restore after release /
probation (ex Felons)– Some states make ban permanent (unless
govt. approves individual’s restoration)
Voter Turnout
• Felon Laws– Adoption corresponds with extension of
rights to Black Americans– Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws– By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws
• type of crimes covered changed
Voter Turnout
• Effects of Felon laws– There might not be a decline in turnout– Levels of criminal punishment in US way,
way up– More felons than ever (Why??)
• 9% of US adult population (2010)– 14% in FL, GA
• 2% in 1966
Lots more not eligible
Voter Turnout in the US
• Why a decline
• Regulatory Barriers– Some are falling– Easier to register now, easier to vote by
mail– EDR explains variation in an election, not
since 1960.
Voter Turnout in US
• Maybe no decline?
• Yes, lower after 1960s - 2000– Decline mostly outside of south
• Low turnout rate of young (post 1972) accounts for 1/4 of decline– and criminal ‘justice’ industry
• VAP vs. VEP....
Turnout 2004, 2008
• Change VEP» 2008 2004
– White 66.1% 63.8% -1.1– Black 65.2% 60.3% +4.9– Hispanic 49.9% 47.2% +2.7– Asian 47.0% 44.7% +2.4– All 63.6% 63.8% -0.2
Turnout by Age
• Not quite linear
• Young voters lowest turnout
• Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008
charles franklin data
Turnout by Age
• Not quite linear
• Young voters lowest turnout
• Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008
charles franklin data
Turnout by Age
• Youngest cohort largest segment of the electorate
• Greatest under-representation in voting
Turnout by Age
• Under-representation?
• Youth vote by party– 2000 51% Dem– 2004 54% Dem– 2008 66% Dem– 2012 60% Dem
Decline or not...
• Many, most don’t vote
• In many nations, clear decline
• Where are the voters going?– Cohort vs. lifecycle effects
Voter Turnout
• So why don’t young people vote?– efficacy– life experiences re: politics– campaigns don’t care about them?
• ‘Rock to Vote’, “Vote or Die”?• youth vote way up in place where competitive
races (stakes are higher)• youth vote 10% nationally in 2004
Voter Turnout
• So, who votes?• Education• Age (old people rule)
– Cohort and life cycle effects
• Partisans (not independents)• Income • Efficacy
– OK, so what drives efficacy
Voter Turnout
• When & Why do they vote?
• Regular voters– older people and well educated
• Peripheral voters– younger people and less-educated
Voter turnout
• Competitive elections mobilize
• larger effect on young & less educated
• Presidential race 2004– person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th
grade ed. had .46 prob. of voting– person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed .55 prob.
Voter Turnout
• Midterm election (2002)– 33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate
race = .37 prob. of voting– 33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate
race .77 prob. of voting
– for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway
Voter Turnout in US
• What difference would it make if turnout was higher?– Composition of electorate change?
• EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase turnout but not change electorate
• Competitive elections seem to increase turnout of everyone
– greater effect on young, less educated
Voter Turnout in US
• What happens if higher turnout – and low participating groups show up?
• Young people• Less affluent• Ex-felons
Voter Turnout
• Uggen & Manza– Because felons are drawn from ranks of
poor and racial minorities, laws take votes from Dems.
– Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would have been reversed
– Estimate that Dems would have controlled US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws
• Thus changed composition of US Courts