part ii strengthening japan’s competitiveness by taking … · 2018. 11. 21. · 91 . part ii...

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Part II Strengthening Japan’s competitiveness by taking advantage of its robustness Chapter 1 Analysis: Japan’s competitive advantage in cross-border activities Section 1 Competitiveness in exports 1. Decomposition of the changes in Japan’s goods exports In Part I, Chapter I, it was mentioned that Japan has continued to record a trade deficit since 2011 and that in 2014, the expansion of the trade deficit is starting to be arrested as the volume of exports resumed growing. Below, in light of this trend in Japan’s trade in recent years, the causes of changes in the export volume of goods from Japan will be identified. (1) Price competitiveness and export volume Figure II-1-1-1-1 shows a comparison between changes in Japan’s relative export price (relative to export prices in the world and developed countries, dollar-based, year-on-year changes) and the real effective exchange rate (year-on-year changes). The relative export price refers to the ratio of Japan’s export price (dollar-based) to the world export price (dollar-based), with a rise in the relative export price indicating a decline in the price competitiveness of Japanese export goods and a drop in the price indicating an improvement of the price competitiveness1. The yen’s real effective exchange rate is an indicator of the potential price competitiveness of

Japan’s export goods. When measuring Japan’s international competitiveness, it is desirable to use the yen’s real exchange rate, which takes account of changes in product prices in trading partner countries, rather than merely looking at nominal exchange rate movements. Also, in order to examine Japan’s competitive relationship in the entire global market, it is necessary to use the yen’s effective exchange rate, which takes account of its exchange rate movements relative to a basket of currencies, rather than against a single foreign currency. As the real effective exchange rate takes account of these two points, it is a better indicator of Japan’s international competitiveness than the nominal exchange rate relative to a single foreign currency2. When the yen’s exchange rate rises relative to the basket of currencies, the real effective exchange rate rises accordingly if there is not any difference between the inflation rates in Japan and the trading partner countries. In this case, it can be said that the potential price competitiveness of Japan’s export goods declines. Conversely, when the yen’s exchanges rate drops, the real effective exchange rate falls accordingly. In this case, it can be said that the potential price competitiveness of Japan’s export goods increases. “Potential” refers to a such situation that the actual price competitiveness does not change unless companies revise their sales prices. A closer look at the relationship between corporate price-setting

1 Although the relative export price on a contract currency basis should normally be used, the dollar-based relative export price is used here due to data constraints. In Japan’s case, around 40% of export transactions are settled in yen in terms of value, so it should be kept in mind that the calculation of dollar-based export prices is directly affected by changes in the dollar-yen exchange rate. 2 From Ito et al. (2011).

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behavior and exchange rate movements will be shown below.

Figure II-1-1-1-1 Changes in real effective exchange rate and relative export price

Generally speaking, when the yen’s real effective exchange rate is rising, Japanese companies suffer a drop in profits unless they raise their sales prices abroad. That is because when the yen strengthens relative to other currencies, the yen-based value of overseas sales prices declines. To mitigate the effects of the reduced margin, it is necessary to raise overseas sales prices3. Consequently, when the yen’s real effective exchange rate is rising, an increasing number of Japanese companies are expected to raise their overseas sales prices (which means a decline in their price competitiveness in the relevant countries). Conversely, when the real effective exchange rate is declining, there is room for lowering overseas sales prices while keeping the profit margin unchanged. Consequently, when the real effective exchange rate is declining, an increasing number of Japanese companies are expected to lower their overseas sales prices (which means an improvement in their price competitiveness in the relevant countries). Although there are analytical limits, such as the susceptibility of export prices in the world and in developed countries to the effects of international prices of crude oil and other commodities, Figure 2-1-1-1-1 shows that Japan’s real effective exchange rate has mostly been moving in parallel with the relative export price.

3 Cabinet Office (2004), Chapter 3, Section 2.

(Year-on-year change, %)

Relative export prices (in the world) Relative export prices (in developed countries) Real effective exchange rate

Decline in price competitiveness

Improvement of price

competitiveness

(Year)

Notes: Relative export price = Japan’s export price (dollar-based) / world (developed countries) export price (dollar-based)

Source: BIS, IFS (IMF).

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Other factors being equal, it is not until Japanese companies slash their overseas sales prices against the backdrop of an improvement in their potential price competitiveness (a decline in their real effective exchange rates) when their overseas sales volume increases, and consequently their export volume increases. However, the figure also shows that during periods of significant exchange rate movements, such as the yen’s strengthening in 2009 and its weakening in 2013, there was temporarily a large disparity between the real effective exchange rate and the relative export price. Presumed factors behind the disparity include the presence of speculative trading in the exchange market and the diversification of corporate price-setting behavior in recent years. For example, when many exporting companies refrain from lowering overseas sales prices in order to secure profits, rather than sales volume, during a period of the yen’s weakening, the change in the export price is small relative to the change in the real effective exchange rate. The same is also true when many countries refrain from raising overseas sales prices during a period of the yen’s strengthening with priority placed on maintaining sales volume, rather than profits. Indeed, Figure II-1-1-1-2 shows that when the yen’s real effective exchange rate was declining from 2005 to 2007 and from late 2012 to 2013, the export price index on a contract currency basis dropped only slightly. Meanwhile, when the yen was appreciating from the middle of 2008 onwards, export prices did not rise much.

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Figure II-1-1-1-2 Real effective exchange rate and export price index

Furthermore, corporate price-setting behavior varies depending on the type of goods that they export. Figure II-1-1-1-3 is a comparison between the movements of the real effective exchange rate and the export price index (on a contract currency basis). This shows that against the backdrop of intensifying international price competition, the export prices of electric and electronic machinery on a contract currency basis have continued to decline with no regard to the movements of the real effective exchange rate. In contrast, the export price of textiles on a contract currency basis has been rising against the backdrop of a trend shift in export products to higher price ranges. The figure indicates that the export price of chemicals tends to move in line with the price of crude oil, which is a raw material of chemicals. Although the export price of transportation equipment, including motor vehicles, generally moved in line with the real effective exchange rate until around 2010, the link seems to have been weakening somewhat since 2011. Another factor that is weakening the link between the export price and the real effective exchange rate is growth in exports by companies in Japan to their overseas affiliates following an increase in the number of Japanese companies moving their business operations to other countries. Price-setting behavior concerning such intra-company transactions may be substantially different from that concerning export transactions in general.

Total products

Contract currency basis

Real effective exchange rate

Source: Corporate Goods Price Index (Bank of Japan), BIS. (Month, year)

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Figure II-1-1-1-3 Real effective exchange rate and export price index

To consider this matter, let us look at Figure II-1-1-1-4, which is a comparison between the movements of Japan’s export volume (2010=100) and the yen’s real effective exchange rate (2010=100). This figure shows that from around 2000 to 2007, the export volume continued to grow while the real effective exchange rate continued to decline. However, around the middle of 2007, when the subprime mortgage loan problem surfaced in the United States, the real effective exchange rate turned up sharply and subsequently stayed at a high level until late 2012. In the meantime, Japan’s export volume has remained stagnant, failing to regain the level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Although the real effective exchange rate has

Electric and electronic machinery


Contract currency basis (right scale)

Source: Corporate Goods Price Index (Bank of Japan), BIS.

(Month, year) Source: Corporate Goods Price Index (Bank of Japan), BIS.


(Month, year)

Source: Corporate Goods Price Index (Bank of Japan), BIS.


(Month, year)





Transportation equipment

Textiles

Chemicals Chemicals




Crude oil prices

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declined significantly since late 2012, Japan’s export volume has stayed almost flat, rather than starting to grow again. In general, it takes a certain amount of time before companies revise their export prices following a change in the exchange rate4. In addition, it presumably takes time before an export price revision is reflected in overseas sales prices and causes a sales volume change. Therefore, it may take a substantial period of time before the effects of a decline in the real effective exchange rate can be observed in the export volume change by way of a price revision5. As more than two years have elapsed since the yen’s real effective exchange rate started to decline significantly, attention is focusing on the future trend in Japan’s export volume.

Figure II-1-1-1-4 Changes in real effective exchange rate and Japan's export volume

Why has the export volume remained stagnant despite the improvement in Japan’s price competitiveness? Factors other than corporate price-setting behavior that may affect the export volume will be shown below. (2) External demand and export volume Among other factors that may affect the export volume, the external demand trend must be mentioned first. Usually, the aggregate value of real GDP (dollar-based) of countries around the world

4 For example, Ito et al. (2010) conducted a questionnaire survey on 215 Japanese exporting companies, and regarding the frequency of reflecting exchange rate movements in sales prices, the survey found that around 80% of the 137 respondent companies made price revision within one year. 5 In cases where the yen is weakening, this is called the “J-curve effect.”

Export volume index Real effective exchange rate

Appreciation of yen

Depreciation of yen

Notes: Export volume index is seasonally adjusted. Source: Trade Statistics of Japan (MOF), BIS.

(Year)

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is adopted as an indicator of external demand. However, in order to identify external demand as seen from the standpoint of Japanese export industries, it is necessary to take into consideration the breakdown of goods export by export destination country. Figure II-1-1-1-5 shows changes in the shares of exports to the United States, Europe (EU28) and China in Japan’s overall exports. As an export destination for Japan, the United States has the largest share, around 20%, followed by China with around 19% and Europe with around 12%. The three main export destinations together account for half of overall Japanese exports. The figure indicates that while Europe-bound exports’ share has been on a long-term downtrend since the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, U.S.-bound exports’ share has been growing since 2012, whereas China-bound exports’ share has remained flat since 2008.

Figure II-1-1-1-5 Changes in Japan's export by destination country and region

Figure II-1-1-1-6 shows the weighted average of changes in real GDPs of 26 trading partners of Japan6 using each value of customs-cleared exports to them as the weight. According to this figure, Japan’s export volume, which had previously increased almost in line with the real GDP growth of major export destination countries, has been growing at a much slower pace than the real GDP growth of those countries since 2011. This finding suggests that Japan’s stagnant export volume in recent years is not attributable to the external demand trend.

6 The 26 countries and regions are: the United States, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and China (including Hong Kong). The 26 countries and regions account for approximately 87% (the average between 1985 and 2014) of Japan’s overall export value.

Notes: Shares of the value of customs-cleared exports to destination countries and regions in Japan’s overall exports (Yen basis)

Source: Trade Statistics of Japan (MOF).

(Year)

United States China Europe (EU28)

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Figure II-1-1-1-6 Changes in foreign real GDP and Japan's exports volume

(3) Value addition and export volume Value addition of export goods is another factor that may significantly affect the export volume. Here, the definition of value addition of export goods will be first clarified in relation to the export price index7. In general, the export price index is computed by fixing products investigated, removing effects of both qualitative changes and changes in the product mix. Therefore, even if value addition to export goods which may imply either an increase in value-added of individual exported products or an increase in the share of higher value-added products in export, has occurred after the base year of the index, such changes do not affect the export price index.

“Value addition to individual export products” may imply a shift in price range of passenger cars, for example, cars toward a higher range of cars with larger engine displacement. The export price index for ordinary passenger cars is produced by fixing a basket of cars of a specific category (in terms of engine displacement) as the survey subjects tracing their price changes. Therefore, even if the average export price of passenger cars may increase due to a shift in their price range toward a higher range of cars with larger engine displacement, such increase does not affect the export price index for ordinary passenger cars. An “increase in the share of higher value-added products” may imply, for example, such a case 7 The export price index is produced by the Bank of Japan using the methodology based on a fixed-weight Laspeyres formula.

Notes: 1. Foreign real GDPs is a weighted average of GDPs using each value of customs-cleared exports to trading partners of Japan as the weight (from the 1st quarter of 1985 to the 4th quarter of 2014).

2. Export volume index is seasonally adjusted. Source: Trade Statistics of Japan (MOF), Economic Outlook Database (OECD), Oxford Economics.

(Year)

Export volume index

Foreign real GDP

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that the share of large passenger cars increases where the price index for passenger cars is comprised of two sub-categories (ordinary passenger cars and large passenger cars). In this case, as the export price index makes the shares of sub-categories fixed in the reference period, the index for passenger cars does not change even if the average export price for passenger cars increases. Therefore, value addition to export goods may be regarded as a “price increase” that cannot be captured by the export price index. As for the relationship with export volume, the more value is added to an exported item, the less likely it is to increase its export volume even if the export price remains constant. Indeed, as value addition to Japanese export goods steadily proceeds, Japan’s goods trade has become structurally biased against an export increase. (Figure II-1-1-1-7).

Figure II-1-1-1-7 Value addition to Japanese export goods

Figure II-1-1-1-8 decomposes changes (year-on-year) in value addition to Japanese export goods into “value addition to individual export products (product quality factor)” and “increases in high-value-added products’ shares among exports (product mix factor).” The result shows that the product quality factor constantly contributes positively to value addition while the product mix factor tends to contribute negatively to value addition through an increase in low-value-added products’ shares. As demand for products with reduced prices usually grows, it is not easy to promote value addition by enhancing product mix. Indeed, Figure II-1-1-1-8 indicates that between late 2004 and 2009, Japanese export industries, while promoting value addition to individual export items, expanded

Notes: value-added index = real exports / export volume; The index is seasonally adjusted. Source: Trade Statistics of Japan (MOF), Corporate Goods Price Index (BOJ).

(Year)

Value-added index

100

production of low-value-added products at the same time, as they failed to increase high-value-added products’ shares. However, since 2010, whereas value addition to individual export products has continued, the rise in low-value-added products’ shares in the product mix, which had intermittently been observed until then, has all but disappeared. This suggests that the move to expand production of low-value-added products has been rolled back substantially. Furthermore, since 2013, the value addition to individual export products has slowed down significantly, indicating that the trend of value addition to Japanese export goods has remained stagnant.

Figure II-1-1-1-8 Decomposition of changes in value-added index

(4) Export goods production capacity and export volume Export goods production capacity is also an important factor that may affect export volume. As is widely known, amid the rapid overseas expansion of the Japanese manufacturing industry, there are concerns over a possible hollowing out of the industry due to transfer of production facilities to foreign countries. If domestic production infrastructure continues to shrink, it would become difficult to increase exports from Japan by taking advantage of growing external demand in the future because of constraints imposed by the production capacity reduction. Therefore, it may be said that domestic production capacity is the most important element of Japan’s “competitiveness in export.” In general, other conditions being equal, a country’s export volume is proportionate to the scale of

Notes: For details of the decomposition, see Supplementary Note 1. Source: Trade Statistics of Japan (MOF), Corporate Goods Price Index (BOJ).

(Year)

Value-added index

(Year-on-year change, %) Product quality factor Product mix factor

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its domestic export goods production capacity8. Therefore, below, the relationship between the export goods production capacity and export volume will be shown.

First, changes in the Japanese manufacturing industry’s total domestic production capacity will be shown, including for domestic sales and exports (Figure II-1-1-1-9). The figure shows that the production capacity of the entire manufacturing industry continued to grow until around 1997, when it started to decline. The production capacity continued to decline until around 2004 and resumed growing in 2005, with the uptrend continuing until 2008. In 2009, the year after the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, the production capacity started to decline again, and the downtrend continued until 2014. Next, production capacity by individual industry will be shown. The production capacity of the electric machinery industry (old classification) 9 (machinery manufacturing industry + information equipment and communication electronics industry + electronics parts and devices industry) remained on the path of recovery from the collapse of the IT bubble in 2001 until 2011, when it started to decline again following the Great East Japan Earthquake in March of the year. In particular, in the field of household electric appliances, where Japanese companies face severe competition from their counterparts in emerging countries, production capacity has been declining steeply over a long period of time since the latter half of the 1990s. In materials industries, including iron and steel, metal products, ceramics, stone and clay products and chemicals, production capacity has been on a long-lasting downtrend. In the transport equipment industry, which is the core of Japan’s export industries, production capacity shrank significantly between 2000 and 2004. Although production capacity remained flat thereafter, it has been declining again since 2013. The production capacity of electronics parts and devices, which consistently continued to grow in the past, has been shrinking after peaking around 2011. As shown above, domestic production capacity has been declining in almost all industries in recent years.

8 Refer to Goldstein, M and Mohsin S. Khan (1978), pp276, for example. 9 The “electric machinery industry” as referred to here, which is an old classification of the Indices of Industrial Production, comprises the “electric machinery manufacturing industry,” the “information equipment and communication electronics manufacturing industry” and the “electronics parts and devices manufacturing industry” under the current 2010 classification.

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Figure II-1-1-1-9 Domestic production capacity index by industry (exports + domestic consumption)

Source: Indices of Production Capacity of Japan’s Manufacturing Industry (METI)

Manufacturing industry

Electric machinery industry (old classification)

Household electric appliances industry

Iron and steel industry

Metal products industry

Ceramics, stone and clay products

industry

Chemical industry Information and communication electronics

equipment industry

Transportation equipment industry

Electronic parts and devices industry

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Next, changes in the ratio of exports to overall shipments (export ratio) by industry will be shown. Figure II-1-1-1-10 shows changes in the export ratio concerning materials industries and processing/assembly industries. According to this figure, the export ratio has been rising in recent years in many industries. The uptrend in the export ratio started in materials industries, including textile manufacturing, in the 1990s or so, and in processing/assembly industries such as transport equipment and general-purpose machinery manufacturing a little later, in the 2000s. However, since around 2008, the export ratio growth has remained stagnant in both materials and processing/assembly industries. In the information and communication electronics equipment industry, which is among the processing/assembly industries, the export ratio started to rise again in 2011 after a long period of decline. On the other hand, the export ratio has continued to decline steeply in the electronic parts and devices industry since 2007. Meanwhile, in the electrical machinery industry, the export ratio has remained almost flat. The figure shows that in 2014, the export ratio rose in most industries, including materials industries but excluding the electronic parts and devices and some other industries. In particular, the export ratio rose steeply in the information and communication electronics equipment industry.

Figure II-1-1-1-10 Changes in export share by industry

Notes: Export share = (index of shipments for export x export weight) / (index of shipments for exports x export weight + index of shipments for domestic sales x domestic shipment weight) x 100

Source: Breakdown List of Industrial Shipment (METI).

(Year)

I. Materials industries Iron and steel industry

Textile industry

Chemical industry

Plastic products industry

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In general, there is presumably a positive correlation between the movements of the export goods production capacity and shipments for exports, so it may be assumed that when the export ratio (shipments for export / (shipments for exports + shipments for domestic sales)) is rising while domestic production capacity as a whole is declining, the export goods production capacity is growing. Below is predicted changes in the production capacity of exports goods in Japan using data concerning domestic production capacity and the export ratio. As there are no statistics directly concerning the export goods production capacity, a figure obtained by multiplying the domestic production capacity component of the Indices of Production Capacity prepared by METI by the export ratio calculated based on the breakdown list of industrial shipments (shipments for exports/(shipments for domestic sales + shipments for exports), also prepared by METI10 is used as a proxy for the Japanese exporting industries’ export goods production

10 However, the operating rate of production facilities is not taken into consideration here. The production capacity obtained through shipment data reflects the effects of short-term fluctuations of the operating rate that accompany the economic cycle. In other words, in this case, a drop in shipments for export caused by a decline in the operating rate of export goods production facilities, rather than a decline in the export goods production capacity, is also treated as the effect of a decline in the export goods production capacity. Therefore, it should be kept in mind that the export goods production capacities calculated below reflect the effects of fluctuations of the operating rate. In recent years, the so-called mixed line production system, which refers to the production of products for export and those for domestic sales on a single production line, has become widespread, mainly in the motor vehicle and general machinery industries. A production system innovation like this makes it possible for companies to flexibly use existing production capacities for export and domestic sales in accordance with the demand trend. Consequently, when evaluating the trend in production capacity for export and domestic sales based on

Notes: Export share = (index of shipments for export x export weight) / (index of shipments for exports x export weight + index of shipments for domestic sales x domestic shipment weight) x 100

Source: Breakdown List of Industrial Shipment (METI).

(Year)

II. Processing/assembly industries.

Electronic parts and devices industry

Electric machinery industry

Transportation equipment industry

General machinery industry

Information and communication electronics

equipment industry

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capacity. Figure II-1-1-1-11 shows the estimation results. Looking at the figure, the domestic consumption goods production capacity continued to decline for a long period of time from the late 1990s onwards, the export goods production capacity continued to grow until around early 2011 except for the temporary decline in the aftermath of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. During this period, Japan’s export goods production capacity stayed flat until around the middle of the 1990s before starting to grow rapidly around the middle of 1996 against the backdrop of the strong performance of the U.S. economy and the yen’s weakening. Given that the yen started to weaken around the middle of 1995, it took around one year before the effects of the yen’s weakening appeared in the form of growth in the export goods production capacity. Subsequently, the export goods production capacity generally remained flat until 2002, when it resumed growing after the collapse of the IT bubble. At that time, the yen started to weaken around the beginning of 2001, indicating that it took around one year before the effects of the yen’s weakening appeared in the form of growth in the export goods production capacity. The yen remained weak until around the middle of 2007, and the export goods production capacity continued to grow over this period. The export goods production capacity has fallen steeply twice since 2011. The first plunge in the production capacity started in the fourth quarter of 2011, around three years after the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, and continued for five quarters, until the fourth quarter of 2012. The second plunge continued from the first quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of the same year (however, given that the production capacity declined only 0.4% year on year in the third quarter of 2014, the effective duration of the plunge was two quarters). As the yen’s strengthening that started around the middle of 2007 continued until around the end of 2012, the first plunge took place amid the prolonged strong-yen trend. Given that the capacity continued to decline year on year for more than one year and that it has not yet recovered to the pre-plunge period11, it can be presumed that Japanese companies made earnest efforts to curtail their export goods production capacity. On the other hand, the second plunge in the export goods production capacity is unlikely to be the result of earnest efforts to cut back on the capacity, given that it took place after the yen started to weaken around the end of 2012 and that the plunge continued just two quarters, with the capacity rebounding far above the pre-plunge level in the fourth quarter of 2014, just three quarters from the start of the plunge. Rather, these data strongly suggest that some special factor or other caused the export goods production capacity to drop temporarily.

shipment data, it is necessary to closely watch other relevant economic statistics and the various underlying economic phenomena as well. 11 The export goods production capacity index immediately before the plunge was 101.2 (in the third quarter of 2011). As of the fourth quarter of 2014, the index was lower than this level.

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Figure II-1-1-1-11 Changes in production capacity of export goods

What special factor was there at that time? In April 2014, the consumption tax rate was raised, and in the first quarter of the year, there was a last-minute surge in demand before the tax hike. Indeed, the actual operating rate12 of Japan’s manufacturing industry started to rise in 2013, the year before the consumption tax hike, after continuing to decline from the second quarter of 2012. In the first quarter of 2014, the actual operating rate, which stood at 74.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012, climbed to 84.9%, the highest level since the third quarter of 2008, the year of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. Subsequently, the operating rate fell back to 78.6% in the third quarter of 2014, immediately after the consumption tax hike (Figure II-1-1-1-12). In the meantime, the growth in shipments for export slowed down considerably, to 2.6% in the first quarter of 2014, followed by a decline of 1.2% in the second quarter of the same year. However, shipments for export started to grow again in the third quarter of the same year and posted a significant increase, 4.3%, in the fourth quarter of the year. On the other hand, shipments for domestic sales grew significantly in the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, before starting to decline again in the third quarter of 2014. These data 12 Estimated by multiplying the published actual operating rate level in the base year (2010) by the operating rate index.

Notes: Production capacity of export goods = production capacity index x export share Export share = (index of shipments for export x export weight) / (index of shipments for exports x export weight + index of shipments for domestic sales x domestic shipment weight) x 100 Production capacity of domestic consumption goods = production capacity index x (1 - export share)

Source: Indices of Production Capacity of Japan's Manufacturing Industry, Breakdown List of Industrial Shipment (METI).

(Year)

Index of production capacity of export goods (right scale)


Index of production capacity of export goods Index of production capacity of domestic consumption goods

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provide a strong indication that Japanese companies shifted some of their production capacity for export to production for domestic sales in order to meet the last-minute surge in demand before the consumption tax hike13. As shown above, it is highly likely that the two phases of plunge in the export goods production capacity since 2011 are quite different in nature from each other. Figure II-1-1-1-12 Changes in actual operating rate, shipments for exports, and shipments for

domestic sales before and after the consumption tax hike

Finally, looking at recent developments, since the latter half of 2014, the export goods production capacity has been growing again. In the fourth quarter of the same year, it recovered to the level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The continuing decline in the domestic consumption goods production capacity is a cause for concern. However, regarding the export goods production capacity, there are indications that Japanese exporting industries started again to devote efforts to building up their production capacity in Japan against the backdrop of a recent improvement in the export environment, backed by a recovery in external demand and stable exchange rate movements. A comparison of the movements of the export goods production capacity thus identified and the 13 Regarding motor vehicle-related real exports, the Bank of Japan (2014) reported that supply constraints associated with a steep rise in domestic sales temporarily had an export volume-reducing effect. It was reported at a meeting in August 2014 of the Industrial Structure Council’s Manufacturing Industry Committee (second meeting) that companies’ response to the last-minute surge in demand (production increase) continued after the consumption tax hike implemented in April 2014, mainly in the motor vehicle industry, as production did not catch up with demand.

Source: Indices of Production Capacity of Japan's Manufacturing Industry, Breakdown List of Industrial Shipment (METI).

(Year)

Shipments for exports

Shipments for domestic sales

Actual operating rate (exports + domestic consumption; right scale)


108

movements of export volume shows a strong positive correlation between the two. However, it also shows that there was a large disparity between them during periods of short-term volatility of export volume, such as around the time of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers (Figure II-1-1-1-13). Overseas inventory investment, which is explained below, is an important factor that may trigger short-term volatility of export volume.

Figure II-1-1-1-13 Changes in production capacity of export goods and export volume

(5) Overseas inventory investment and export volume In general, in the expansionary phase of the business cycle, companies increase their production and exports to accumulate their inventories, while in the recessionary phase, they reduce or suspend their production and export in order to cut back on excessive inventories. Consequently, corporate inventory investment activities, including inventory accumulation and adjustment, work to magnify the changes in production and export in the course of business cycle, rather than offset the changes14. At this time, as a proxy variable for overseas inventory investment by Japanese export industries, “the change in inventories” is used, which consists one of demand components of GDP, as a share of 14 For example, the Economic Planning Agency (1992) stated as follows in Chapter 2, Section 5 concerning the characteristics of inventory investment: “In reality, as inventory investment increases in the expansionary phase and declines in the recessionary phase, it magnifies, rather than offsets, the changes of production during the business cycle. This indicates that when inventory plays a buffer role, there is an appropriate amount of inventory which is broadly proportionate to the level of demand and that the inventory changes in parallel to the changes in demand.”

Notes: 1. Index of production capacity of exports goods = production capacity index x export share; Export share = (index of shipments for export x export weight) / (index of shipments for export x export weight + index of shipments for domestic sales x domestic shipment weight) x 100

2. Export volume index is seasonally adjusted. Source: Indices of Production Capacity of Japan's Manufacturing Industry, Breakdown List of

Industrial Shipment (METI).

(Year)

Export volume index

Index of production capacity of exports goods

109

the aggregate nominal GDPs of major trade partners of Japan (Figure II-1-1-1-14). This makes it possible to explain a large part of the short-term volatility of Japan’s export volume induced by overseas inventory investment. Indeed, Figure II-1-1-1-14 shows that Japanese companies made rapid inventory adjustment and accumulation in such a short period of one year, from 2001 to 2002 immediately after the bursting of the IT bubble and from 2008 to 2009 immediately after the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. The more inventory investment volatile, the more export volume swings during a short period of time.

Figure II-1-1-1-14 Changes in overseas inventory investment

A look at overseas inventory investment since 2012 indicates that the investment amount has been on a downtrend even though there has not been a significant change in overseas demand. In the fourth quarter of 2014, overseas inventory investment declined 0.2%, marking the first drop since around the time of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. A decomposition of overseas inventory investment by export partners shows that while inventory accumulation has continued in the United States, China and Indonesia because of favorable economic conditions there, inventory adjustment has intensified since around 2012 in some Asian countries, including the Republic of Korea, Thailand and the Philippines, and EU member countries (Figure II-1-1-1-15). In particular, inventory investment in the Republic of Korea fell steeply in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Notes: Figure shows the weighted average of SNA base changes in inventories as shares of the nominal GDPs of 24 major trading partners of Japan (US, UK, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Australia, Mexico, ROK, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and China excluding Hong Kong) using the customs-cleared values of export to those trade partners as the weight. The figure is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Oxford Economics.

(Year)

Changes in overseas inventory as a share of the nominal GDP

110

Figure II-1-1-1-15 Overseas inventory investment by export trading partners

(6) Estimation of the export volume function and decomposition of changes Above, five factors presumed to be closely linked with the movements of Japan’s export volume – price competitiveness, external demand, value addition to export goods, domestic production capacity for export goods and overseas inventory investment – are examined in detail for their characteristics and their relationship with the export volume. Below, Japan’s export function will be estimated using all these five factors. In addition, using the estimation results, decomposition of the changes in export volume will be exhibited to show to what extent each factor affects Japan’s export volume15. Figure II-1-1-1-16 is a comparison between the estimated export volumes based on the export volume function and the actual export volumes. This figure indicates that the estimated figures accurately track the volatile changes in the export volume around the time of the bursting of the IT bubble in 2001 and the Collapse of Lehman Brothers in 200816. 15 As for the details of methods for estimation and descriptions as well as their results, refer to Supplementary Note 2. 16 However, the estimated figures are slightly higher than the actual figures for 2011 and later. This suggests that some structural factor other than these five factors used in the export volume function at this time has been newly emerging since 2011. Replacement of domestic production with the expansion of overseas production, for example, may be the candidate. However, analysis in this respect was refrained

Notes: Figure shows the weighted average of SNA base changes in inventories as shares of the nominal GDPs of 24 major trading partners of Japan (US, UK, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Australia, Mexico, ROK, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and China excluding Hong Kong) using each value of customs-cleared exports to them as the weight. The figure is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Oxford Economics.

(Year)

Canada Australia India Mexico EU Taiwan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Indonesia ROK United States China Overseas inventory investment

(shares of nominal GDP)

United States China

Thailand

ROK

Taiwan

111

Figure II-1-1-1-17 shows a decomposition of changes (year-on-year) in export volume into five factors ― price competitiveness, external demand, value addition to export goods and export goods production capacity ― using the estimated figures obtained through estimation based on the export function. First, an overview of the relationship between each factor and export volume will be shown. As was expected, the overseas inventory investment factor explains a large part of the high volatility of the export volume when foreign demand has showed high volatility in the aftermaths of the Asian currency crisis in 1997-1998, the bursting of the IT bubble in 2001 and the Collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. However, since 2012, overseas inventory investment made negative contributions to the export volume during most of the period despite a lack of significant changes in external demand. This was because inventory investment has been curbed or reduced since 2012 in some Asian countries, including the Republic of Korea, which is a major export destination for Japan, and some EU countries, as shown in 1. (5). Next will be the real effective exchange rate, which is an indicator of the price competitiveness factor. The real effective exchange rate affects export volume with a time lag of around four quarters (one year). The figure shows that the real effective exchange rate turned to a positive contributor to the export volume since the fourth quarter of 1996 that corresponds to the year elapsed around one year since the middle of 1995 when the yen started to weaken. Likewise, the real effective exchange turned to a positive contributor to the export volume since the first quarter of 2002 corresponding year that have elapsed around one year since the beginning of 2001 when the yen started to weaken. In addition, when the yen started to weaken at the end of 2012, the export volume-increasing effect started to appear around one year later, at the end of 2013. Conversely, at the time of the yen’s strengthening, including 1993, 1999-2000, and 2008 and subsequent years, the real effective exchange rate began to appear as a negative contributor to the export volume around one year after the strong-yen trend started. When looking at the movements of overseas real GDP, an indicator of the external demand factor, it had been a steadily positive contributor to export volume throughout the estimation period except for the subsequent year to the Collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fourth quarter of 2008. Meanwhile, the value addition factor had been a negative contributor to export volume throughout most of the period, reflecting the trend of value addition to Japan’s export goods. However, since 2013, the negative contributions made by the factor have become somewhat smaller. This reflects the trend of value addition to Japanese export goods has remained stagnant since 2013, as was described in 1. (3). The export goods production capacity factor had been a temporarily negative contributor when external demand slumped seriously in the aftermaths of the bursting of the IT bubble and the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. But at other times, this factor constantly had been a positive contributor through the expansion of production of low-value-added products.

because the necessary numbers of data cannot be obtained due to the brevity of the period.

112

Following the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, the exports goods production capacity factor ceased to make positive contributions to export volume despite a lack of a significant decline in external demand, as the expansion of production of low-value-added products was rolled back. Between the end of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2012, the factor had an export volume-reducing effect17. The above findings indicate that Japan’s export volume expanded steadily between 2002 and 2008, before the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, because the positive contribution from an increase in the export goods production capacity backed by external demand growth and the expansion of production of export goods, mainly low-value-added products, constantly outweighed the negative contribution from the value addition trend, except when export volume was affected by the short-term impact of the overseas inventory investment factor18. Meanwhile, Japan’s export volume has remained stagnant since 2011 because the positive contribution from an improvement in price competitiveness due to robust external demand and the yen’s weakening failed to surpass the negative contribution from such factors as the trend of value addition to export goods, the reduction of the export goods production capacity that continued from the end of 2011 to 2012, a temporary decline in the export goods production capacity caused by the response to the consumption tax hike and the progress in inventory adjustment abroad. (7) Summary Japan’s export volume resumed growing year on year in the fourth quarter of 2014 thanks to such factors as continued robust external demand, mainly in the United States, the ongoing recovery in the export goods production capacity after a temporary slump caused by the response to the consumption tax hike, and the improving price competitiveness due to the yen’s weakening. However, as was already mentioned, Japan’s goods trade has become structurally biased against an export increase because of the ongoing value addition trend. Besides, since the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, the expansion of production of low-value-added products, which presumably had led the growth in the export goods production capacity until then, has been rolled back significantly. As a result, if Japan is to maintain a certain degree of export volume growth in the future amid the rapidly evolving economic globalization, it is essential for the country to continue to promote the trend of value addition to export goods and maintain and expand the export goods production capacity. The key to maintaining and expanding the export goods production capacity will be whether Japanese export industries can grow their shares in the market for high-value-added products.

17 The export goods production capacity had a negative contribution in 2014 as well. However, this was probably because of a last-minute surge in demand before the consumption tax hike, rather than earnest efforts to reduce production capacity, as mentioned in 1. (4). 18 However, in 2005, export volume declined year on year because the negative contribution from the value addition factor temporarily surpassed the positive contribution from export the overseas demand and export goods production capacity factors.

113

Figure II-1-1-1-16 Estimated export volume (not seasonally adjusted) and actual export volume

Notes: For details of the estimation method, see Supplementary Note 2(1). Source: Trade Statistics of Japan (MOF), Indices of Production Capacity of Japan's Manufacturing

Industry, Breakdown List of Industrial Shipment (METI), Input-Output Tables for Japan (MIC), Corporate Goods Price Index (BOJ), Economic Outlook Database (OECD), IFS (IMF), BIS, Oxford Economics.

(Year)

Actual

Estimated

114

Figure II-1-1-1-17 Decomposition of changes in export volume (not seasonally adjusted)

(Year-on-year change, %) Asian

currency crisis

Bursting of IT bubble

Collapse of Lehman Brothers

Great East Japan

Earthquake

Consumption tax hike (Note 2)

Price competitiveness factors (real effective exchange rates)

Overseas inventory investment factors (changes in overseas inventories) Higher value added content factors (value added index) Overseas demand factors (overseas real GDP)

Factors of production capacity of exports goods (indices of production capacity of exports goods)

Trend component Export volume (actual volume)

Residuals

Source: Trade Statistics of Japan (MOF), Indices of Production Capacity of Japan's Manufacturing Industry, Breakdown List of Industrial Shipment (METI), Corporate Goods Price Index (BOJ), IFS (IMF), BIS, Oxford Economics, Economic Outlook Database (OECD).

Notes: 1. For details of decomposition, see Supplementary Note 2(2). 2 The negative contribution by the production capacity of exports goods from the 1st quarter to

the 2nd quarter of 2014 is considered to be caused mainly by the temporary shift of part of domestic production capacity from export sales to domestic sales in response to last-minute demand before the consumption tax hike, rather than by an intentional shift toward reduction of production capacity of export goods. For details, see Section 1 (4).

(Year)

115

2. Overview of international comparison of “competitiveness in export” In this section, we will examine the force of Japan’s “competitiveness in export.” Recently, signs of a recovery in Japan’s export volume have started to appear at long last. However, while the export volume indexes for emerging countries and the United States have surpassed and remained above the level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the index for Japan has remained stagnant below the level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers (Figure II-1-1-2-1). Here, we will look at the characteristics of Japanese exports through international comparison of traded goods classified by production process. Then, we will evaluate Japan’s competitiveness in export by examining the export growth rates of major Japanese industries in terms of value and Japanese traded goods’ shares of imports by country/region (import value shares) based on Trade Statistics (Ministry of Finance).

Figure II-1-1-2-1 Changes in export volume indices of world and Japan

(1) World trade and international comparison of traded goods classified by production process We will look at changes in the value of world trade and Japan’s export trend and take an overview of the characteristics of Japan’s exports through international comparison of traded goods classified by production process. (A) Changes in the value of world trade (export value) World trade has recorded high growth in terms of export value since 2000 (Figure II-1-1-2-2). In the 2000s (2001 to 2010), world trade registered an average annual growth rate of 9.0%, up sharply from 6.3% in the 1990s (1991 to 2000). So far in the 2010s (2011 to 2013), the average annual growth

Emerging countries 168.7

United States 145.6

World 137.7

Europe 113.8

Japan 114.7

Europe

United States

Japan

Europe

Emerging countries

(Year) Notes: Figures show annual equivalent of monthly data. Source: World Trade Monitor (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)).

116

rate slowed down to 6.9%, which is still higher than the growth rate in the 1990s. In the 2000s, the world trade growth was led more by growth in emerging countries than by growth in developed countries (Table II-1-1-2-3).

Figure II-1-1-2-2 Changes in world trade (export value)

Table II-1-1-2-3 Growth rates of world trade (export value)

1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2013

World 6.3% 9.0% 6.9%

Developed countries 5.6% 6.9% 4.8%

Emerging countries 9.0% 13.9% 10.0%

Source: IFS (IMF). (B) Exports by major exporting countries/regions in terms of value and their shares of world export value Exports by major exporting countries/regions19 have generally been on an uptrend in terms of value since the latter half of the 2000s, with exports by China in particular growing considerably. Although the value of exports by Japan was higher than the values of exports by other Asian countries in the 1990s, its growth has been stagnant since the 2000s (Figure II-1-1-2-4).

19 Here, “major exporting countries/regions” refers to the four largest exporting countries in 2014 (China, the United States, Germany and Japan) plus the Republic of Korea and ASEAN 5.

World

(Year) Source: IFS (IMF).

(Trillion dollars)

Developed countries

Emerging countries

117

As for major countries/regions’ shares of the world export value, whereas many countries/regions have been losing shares, China’s share has been growing (Figure II-1-1-2-5).

Figure II-1-1-2-4 Changes in export value of major export partners and regions

Japan

(Year) Notes: 1. Figures show data in and after 1991 for the U.S. and Germany and those in and after 1992

for China. 2. ASEAN5 consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Figures

from 1990 to 1994 exclude those for the Philippines and show those for the other four countries.

Source: UN Comtrade.

(Billion dollars)

China

United States

ROK

Germany

ASEAN5

118

Figure II-1-1-2-5 Changes in shares of export value of major export partners and regions in world export value

(C) Trend in exports of traded goods classified by production process Next, we will conduct international comparison of traded goods classified by production process (Figure II-1-1-2-6) and look at changes20. World trade (export value) in all types of traded goods classified by production process has been growing since the 2000s. Although it declined temporarily in 2009 due to the impact of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, it has recovered moderately since then. World trade in raw materials increased by a factor of 6.8 (from 412.9 billion dollars to 2,798.0 billion dollars) between 1990 and 2013 as it has gradually grown since the latter half of the 2000s. World trade in intermediate goods expanded by a factor of 5.3 (from 1,490.8 billion dollars to 7,950.6 billion dollars) between 1990 and 2013, while world trade in final goods grew by a factor of 4.5 (from 1,327.5 billion dollars to 6,011.1 billion dollars) (Figure II-1-1-2-7). As for the shares of traded goods by production process in world trade (export value), intermediate goods’ share has stayed at around 50%, but final goods’ share has been declining since peaking in 1999, falling to between 30% and 40% by now (Figure II-1-1-2-8).

20 In this analysis, traded goods are classified by production process (raw materials, intermediate goods and final goods) with division of production in mind. As the basic data for the analysis, RIETI-TID2013, prepared by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, is used.

Japan

(Year) Notes: 1. Figures show data in and after 1991 for the U.S. and Germany and those in and after

1992 for China. 2. ASEAN5 consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

Figures from 1990 to 1994 exclude those for the Philippines and show those the other four countries.

Source: UN Comtrade.

China United States ROK

Germany

ASEAN5

119

Figure II-1-1-2-6 Classification of trade goods by production process

Source: METI.

Raw materials

Raw materials

. Iron ore

. Crude oil

. Stone and clay etc.

Primary products

Intermediate goods

Processed products

. Iron and steel

. Refined oil

. Chemical products

etc.

Parts

. Machinery parts

etc.

Final goods

Consumer goods

Goods related to personal consumption: . Pharmaceuticals . Home appliances . Passenger cars etc.

Goods as production capital: . Machine tools . Construction machinery . Trucks . Personal computers

etc.

Capital goods

Industrial products in particular

120

Figure II-1-1-2-7 Changes in trade goods by production process in world trade (export value)

Figure II-1-1-2-8 Changes in shares of trade goods by production process in world trade (export value)

Raw materials

(Year) Source: RIETI-TID 2013 database.

(Billion dollars)

Intermediate goods

Final goods


Intermediate goods

Final goods

121

(a) International comparison concerning final goods Regarding the value of final goods exports (consumer goods and capital goods) by major countries/regions21, the export value in 2013 came to 1,211.3 billion dollars for China, 612.9 billion dollars for Germany and 516.6 billion dollars for the United States. In particular, the value of exports by China has increased steeply, expanding by a factor of 22.1 between 1990 and 2013. Although the value of exports by Japan continued to grow until 2008, it dropped sharply in 2009 due to the impact of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. The value of exports by Japan later recovered temporarily, but has been declining again since 2011, falling to 299.8 billion dollars in 2013 (Figure II-1-1-2-9). Figure II-1-1-2-9 Changes in values of final goods export by major export partner and region

(b) International comparison concerning intermediate goods As for the value of intermediate goods exports (processed goods and parts) by major countries/regions, the export value in 2013 stood at 818.5 billion dollars for China, 786.0 billion dollars for the United States and 660.7 billion dollars for Germany. In particular, the value of exports by China increased by a factor of 36.2 between 1990 and 2013. The trend in intermediate goods exports by Japan was similar to the trend in final goods exports by the country: while the value of intermediate exports continued to grow moderately until 2008, it fell in 2009 because of the impact of

21 Here, “major exporting countries/regions” refers to Japan, the United States, ASEAN, Germany, China and the Republic of Korea in accordance with the regional classification of RIETI-TID. “ASEAN” here refers to eight countries – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. However, relevant statistics are unavailable concerning some countries and some years due to data constraints. The same applies to figures based on RIETI-TID data unless otherwise specified.

Japan


(Billion dollars)

United States

ASEAN

Germany

China

ROK

122

the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. Although it temporarily recovered, it has been declining after peaking in 2011, falling to 451.3 billion dollars in 2013 (Figure II-1-1-2-10).

Figure II-1-1-2-10 Changes in values of intermediate goods export by major export partner and region

(c) Changes in the value of Japanese exports of traded goods by production process and in the

value of Japanese exports of traded goods classified by production process and by export destination

Regarding the value of Japanese exports of traded goods by production process, processing goods and parts, both of which are categorized as intermediate goods, account for the largest portions of the value, making it clear that intermediate goods are the country’s mainstay export goods. As for final goods, although the value of capital goods exports recovered after falling steeply in 2009 due to the impact of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, it has been declining significantly again since peaking in 2011. Likewise, the value of consumer goods exports recovered slightly in 2010 after falling steeply in 2009 but has remained flat since then (Figure II-1-1-2-11).

Japan


(Billion dollars)

United States ASEAN

Germany

China ROK

123

Figure II-1-1-2-11 Changes in values of Japanese trade goods export by production process

Next, we will look at changes in the value of Japanese exports of traded goods classified by production process and by export destination. The value of exports of processed goods (intermediate goods) to China increased by a factor of 15.0 (from 3.63 billion dollars to 54.41 billion dollars) and the value of exports of parts (intermediate goods) to China expanded by a factor of 30.3 (from 1.63 billion dollars to 49.26 billion dollars) over the same period. As for capital goods (final goods) and consumer goods (final goods), the value of exports to the United States, Japan’s biggest export market, is the largest. Since 2000, the values of exports of capital goods and consumer goods to China have been growing. Between 1990 and 2013, the value of exports of capital goods (final goods) to China increased by a factor of 13.3 (from 2.81 billion dollars to 37.4 billion dollars), while the value of exports of consumer goods (final goods) to the country grew by a factor of 18.1 (from 0.6 billion dollars to 10.79 billion dollars). The higher values of exports of intermediate goods to China and ASEAN than the values of exports of consumer goods thereto indicate that Asia is at the center of Japanese supply chains (Figure II-1-1-2-12).

Raw materials


(Billion dollars)

Processed products (intermediate goods) Parts (intermediate goods) Capital goods (final goods) Consumer goods (final goods)

124

Figure II-1-1-2-12 Changes in values of Japanese trade goods export by production process and by export destinations

[Raw materials (Japan)]

[Processed products (Japan)]

China


(100 million dollars)

ROK

ASEAN

United States

EU28

China



ROK

ASEAN

United States EU28

125

[Parts (Japan)]

[Capital goods (Japan)]

China



ROK

ASEAN

United States EU28

China



ROK

ASEAN

United States EU28

126

[Consumer goods (Japan)]

The value of Japanese exports of capital goods has been on a downtrend since peaking 2011, with exports to China, EU28 and the Republic of Korea declining. In particular, exports to EU28 slumped sharply in 2009 because of the impact of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers and have remained sluggish since then without recovering to the level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. A comparison of exports of final goods (capital goods and consumer goods) by Japan and the United States to EU28 shows that whereas the value of exports by the United States has been increasing, the value of exports by Japan has remained almost flat since the 1990s (Figure II-1-1-2-13). Regarding final goods as classified into capital goods and consumer goods, the value of capital goods exports by Japan has remained flat, while the value of consumer goods exports has been declining. In contrast, the values of both capital goods and consumer goods exports by the United States have been increasing.

China



ROK

ASEAN

United States EU28

127

Figure II-1-1-2-13 Changes in values of final goods exports by Japan and the United States to EU28

[Changes in values of final goods exports by Japan to EU28]

Japan


United States


Capital goods


(100 million dollars) Consumer goods

Final goods

128

[Changes in values of final goods exports by the United States to EU28]

Next, we will take a look at major exporting countries’ exports of traded goods classified by product process. In the case of the United States, the value of exports of intermediate goods (processed goods and parts) is higher than the value of final goods (capital goods and consumer goods) exports. In particular, the value of processed goods (intermediate goods) exports has been on an uptrend since the 2000s. Although the export value temporarily declined in 2009 due to the impact of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, it resumed growing in 2010. The value of parts (intermediate goods) exports accounts for the second largest portion of overall U.S. exports, after the value of processed goods exports. The value of materials exports has also been on an uptrend, as the United States has an edge in exports of such materials as crude oil and natural gas (Figure II-1-1-2-14). By export destination, the values of U.S. exports of intermediate goods (processed goods and parts) and final goods (capital goods and consumer goods) to China, ASEAN and EU28 have been increasing. In particular, parts (intermediate foods) exports to China expanded by a factor of 36.7 (from 0.81 billion dollars to 29.57 billion dollars) between 1990 and 2013 and consumer goods (final goods) exports to the country increased by a factor of 39.1 (from 0.42 billion dollars to 16.61 billion dollars) (Figure II-1-1-2-15).

Capital goods


(100 million dollars) Consumer goods

Final goods

129

Figure II-1-1-2-14 Changes in values of trade goods exports by production process in the United States

Figure II-1-1-2-15 Changes in values of US trade goods exports by production process and by

export destination [Raw materials (US)]

(Year) Source: RIETI-TID 2013 database, Global Trade Atlas.


Raw materials

US main export destination countries (export values in 2014) 1. Canada (31,212.5 billion

dollars) 2. Mexico (24,032.6 billion

dollars) 3. China (12,402.4 billion dollars) 4. Japan (6,696.4 billion dollars) 5. U.K. (5,386.5 billion dollars)


Japan



ASEAN

China ROK

EU28

130

[Processed products (US)]

[Parts (US)]

Japan



ASEAN

China ROK

EU28

Japan



ASEAN

China ROK

EU28

131

[Capital goods (US)]

[Consumer goods (US)]

In the case of Germany, the values of exports of most types of traded goods have surpassed and stayed above the level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Whereas the value of German exports of raw materials is small as in the case of Japan, the values of German exports of processed goods

Japan



ASEAN

China ROK

EU28

Japan



ASEAN

China ROK

EU28

132

(intermediate goods) and consumer goods (final goods) are large (Figure II-1-1-2-16). By export destination, the values of German exports to the United States, the rest of the EU and China have been growing. Parts (intermediate goods) exports to China increased by a factor of 55.2 (from 0.5 billion dollars to 27.71 billion dollars) between 1990 and 2013, while the value of consumer goods (final goods) exports to the country expanded by a factor of 60.7 (from 0.3 billion dollars to 17.98 billion dollars) (Figure II-1-1-2-17). Figure II-1-1-2-16 Changes in values of Germany's trade goods exports by production process


(100 million dollars) Raw materials

Germany’s main export destination countries (export values in 2014) 1. France (13,449.0 billion dollars) 2. U.S. (12,743.6 billion dollars) 3. U.K. (10,577.5 billion dollars) 4. China (9,891.2 billion dollars) 5. Netherlands (9,355.3 billion

dollars)


133

Figure II-1-1-2-17 Changes in values of Germany's trade goods exports by production process and by export destination [Raw materials (Germany)]

[Processed products (Germany)]

Japan



ASEAN

China

ROK

EU28 (right scale)


United States


Japan


ASEAN

China

ROK

United States


EU28 (right scale)

134

[Parts (Germany)]

[Capital goods (Germany)]

Japan



ASEAN

China

ROK

EU28 (right scale)


United States


Japan


ASEAN

China

ROK

United States


EU28 (right scale)

135

[Consumer goods (Germany)]

As for China, the value of final goods (capital goods and consumer goods) exports has been growing rapidly. Even though the value of exports declined in 2009 due to the impact of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, it later grew rapidly (Figure II-1-1-2-18). By export destination, the value of Chinese exports to ASEAN grew by a factor of 256.0 (from 0.17 billion dollars to 44.65 billion dollars) between 1990 and 2013 and the value of exports to Japan expanded by a factor of 223.7 (from 0.12 billion dollars to 26.78 billion dollars) over the same period. Chinese exports of capital goods (final goods) to Japan increased by a factor of 172.3 (from 0.27 billion dollars to 46.12 billion dollars) between 1990 and 2013, while exports to ASEAN grew by a factor of 120.7 (from 0.41 billion dollars to 49.75 billion dollars) over the same period (Figure II-1-1-2-19).

Japan



ASEAN

China

ROK

EU28 (right scale)

United States


136

Figure II-1-1-2-18 Changes in values of China's trade goods exports by production process

Figure II-1-1-2-19 Changes in values of China's trade goods exports by production process and

by export destination [Raw materials (China)]



Raw materials

China’s main export destination countries (export values in 2014) 1. U.S. (39,606.3 billion

dollars) 2. Hong Kong (36,322.3

billion dollars) 3. Japan (14,945.2 billion

dollars) 4. ROK (10,040.2 billion

dollars) 5. Germany (7,273.1

billion dollars)


Japan



ASEAN ROK EU28 United States

137

[Processed products (China)]

[Parts (China)]

Japan




Japan




138

[Capital goods (China)]

[Consumer goods (China)]

In the case of ASEAN, the values of exports of processed goods (intermediate goods) and parts (intermediate goods) in particular have increased (Figure II-1-1-2-20).

Japan




Japan




139

By export destination, ASEAN’s exports of processed goods (intermediate goods) and parts (intermediate goods) have been growing. Exports of processed goods to China increased by a factor of 32.8 (from 1.76 billion dollars to 57.75 billion dollars) between 1990 and 2013, while exports of parts expanded by a factor of 289.9 (from 0.22 billion dollars to 63.77 billion dollars) over the same period. Exports of raw materials to Japan have also been increasing, with the annual value of exports staying above 10 billion dollars since the latter half of the 2000s (Figure II-1-1-2-21).

Figure II-1-1-2-20 Changes in values of ASEAN trade goods exports by production process



Raw materials

Processed products (intermediate goods) Parts (intermediate goods)

Capital goods (final goods)

Consumer goods (final goods)

140

Figure II-1-1-2-21 Changes in values of ASEAN trade goods exports by production process and by export destination [Raw materials (ASEAN)]

[Processed products (ASEAN)]

Japan



China

ROK

EU28

United States

Japan



China ROK

EU28

United States

141

[Parts (ASEAN)]

[Capital goods (ASEAN)]

Japan



China ROK

EU28

United States

Japan



China ROK

EU28

United States

142

[Consumer goods (ASEAN)]

(d) Summary of the trend in world trade and exports by type of goods Amid the stagnant growth in exports by developed countries, emerging countries have led the growth in world trade (export value). In particular, the value of exports by China has grown remarkably. The value of exports by Japan, which is low compared with other countries’ export values, has been declining after peaking in 2011. When we look at world trade (export value) by production process and by type of traded goods, we see that the values of exports of all of final goods, intermediate goods and raw materials have been growing. Whereas the share of intermediate goods in world trade has remained flat since the 1990s, the share of final goods has been on a downtrend since the 2000s. As for changes in major exporting countries’ exports of traded goods classified by production process, the values of exports of final goods and intermediate foods by China, the United States and Germany have been growing. In the case of Japan, the value of intermediate goods exports is higher than the value of consumer goods exports, indicating that the country mainly supplies intermediate goods with relatively high added value to China and other assembly locations. A breakdown of Japanese exports of traded goods classified by production process indicates that Japan’s weakness in exports of final goods compared with other countries is a factor behind the stagnant growth in the value of Japanese exports. While Japan mainly exports intermediate goods, rather than final goods, the United States and Germany have been increasing exports of both intermediate goods and final goods. In the case of Japan in particular, exports of final goods to EU28 have been on a downtrend, an indication that Japanese exports of consumer goods (final goods) have not grown compared with U.S. exports.

Japan



China ROK

EU28

United States

143

Below, we will evaluate Japan’s competitiveness in export by comparing the export growth rates for major Japanese industries and examining individual Japanese product items’ import value shares in countries and regions in order to make clear in which products Japan has an export advantage. (2) Evaluation of Japan’s competitiveness in export (A) Japan’s main export destinations Japan’s main export destinations are the United States and China. Although the United States was previously the largest export destination for Japan, the values of Japanese exports to the United States and China have been almost the same since 2012. As the value of Japanese exports to ASEAN10 has been increasing slightly, ASEAN 10 is also an important trading partner as the third major export destination after the United States and China. Japanese exports to EU28 declined after the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the value of exports to the region has remained flat without recovering to the level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers (Figure II-1-1-2-22).

Figure II-1-1-2-22 Japan's main export destination countries (top 6 countries)

(B) Changes in the values of exports by major Japanese industries Next, we will look at changes in the values of Japanese exports by major industries as classified under Trade Statistics (HS Code). Exports by the “motor vehicle,” “machinery” and “electrical machinery” industries, which are the main drivers of Japanese exports, have been growing steadily. In addition, exports by the “chemicals and plastic materials” industry have also been increasing gradually,

United States

(Year) Source: Global Trade Atlas.

(Trillion yen) ASEAN10 China

ROK

EU28

Taiwan

144

accounting for 15% of the overall export value recently (Figure II-1-1-2322 Figure II-1-1-2-23 Changes in Japan's export values by major industry and shares of major

industries in 2014

22 The figures in parentheses after category names refer to their HS codes. Unless otherwise specified, the figures after category and product names refer to their HS codes hereinafter in this paragraph.


(Trillion yen)

Precision instruments (90) Vehicles (87) Transportation equipment (86, 88, 89) Electrical machinery (85) General machinery (84) Base metal products (82) Non-ferrous metal (74-81) Articles of iron or steel (73) Iron and steel (72) Glass (70) Textiles and clothing (53-63) Chemicals and plastics (28-40)

Precision instruments (90) 5.8%

Other 12.5%

Vehicles (87) 20.6%

Transportation equipment (86, 88, 89)

2.8%

Electrical machinery (85)

15.1%

Chemicals and plastics (28-40)

13.3%

General machinery (84) 19.2%

Textiles and clothing

(53-63) 1.1%

Glass (70) 0.5%

Iron and steel (72) 4.8%

Articles of iron or steel (73) 1.9% Non-ferrous metal

(74-81) 1.9%

Base metal products

(82) 0.6%

Source: Global Trade Atlas.

145

(C) Japan’s major export items in the main export destinations According to the list of Japan’s major export items in the main export destinations (the top 10 export items in each of the export destinations) (Figure II-1-1-2-24),” machinery,” “electrical machinery,” “motor vehicles” and “iron and steel” products are among the top export items in Asia, including China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea and ASEAN. In the United States, which is Japan’s largest export market, machinery, “electrical machinery,” “precision instruments” as well as “transport machinery” such as “motor vehicles” and “aircraft” are among the top export items. In EU28, similar items, including “machinery,” “electrical machinery,” “motor vehicles” and “precision instruments” are among the top export items.

146

Figure II-1-1-2-24 Japan’s major export items in main export destination countries and regions [China]

[Taiwan]

147

[ROK]

[ASEAN]

148

[United States]

[EU28]

149

(D) Comparison of growth in Japanese and world exports Next, we will compare the growth rates of the values of Japanese and world’s exports by major industry using a figure in which the vertical axis represents the growth rate of the world’s export value and the horizontal axis represents Japan’s export value. The figure makes clear that there is not any industry regarding which Japan’s export value has recorded higher growth than the world’s export value. By sector23, the growth rate of Japan’s export value is relatively close to that of the world’s export value in the “materials sector”24 (red bubble). In the “machinery sector”25 (blue bubble), while Japan’s export value is large, the growth rate, ranging from around minus 2% to plus 2%, is lower than the growth rate of the world’s export value, which ranges from 4% to 8%. In the “transport machinery sector”26 (orange bubble), the growth rate of the world’s export value ranges from 6% to 8%, compared with the range of around 3% to 5% for Japan’s export value (Figure II-1-1-2-25).

Figure II-1-1-2-25 Growth rates of the world's and Japan's export values by major industry

(a) Comparison of growth rates in sub-sectors of the materials sector Next, we will look at the growth rates of Japan’s and the world’s export value regarding the middle

23 As for the details of individual sectors, refer to the list of analyzed products in individual sectors. 24 The “raw materials sector” refers to “chemicals and plastics (28-40),” “textiles and clothing (53-63),” “iron and steel (72)” and “articles of iron or steel (73)” and “non-ferrous metals (74-81)” (excluding scrap). 25 The “machinery sector” refers to “general machinery (84),” “electrical machinery (85)” and “precision instruments (90).” 26 The “transport equipment sector” refers to “vehicles (87)” and “transport equipment (excluding vehicles (86, 88 and 89).”

[Electrical machinery]

[Precision instruments]

[Transportation equipment]

[Articles of iron or steel]

[Iron and steel]

[Non-ferrous metal]

[Chemical and plastic products]

[Glass]

[Base metal products]

[Vehicles] [Textiles and

clothing] [General machinery]

Gro

wth

rate

of w

orld

's ex

port

valu

e

Growth rate of Japan’s export value

Notes: 1. Figures show geometric mean values of year-on-year changes of the world's export value and Japan’s export value from 2000 to 2013.

2. The size of a bubble shows the size of Japan’s export value as of 2013. Source: UN Comtrade.

150

classification of individual sectors. As for “plastic film, etc.,” Japan’s export value has been growing at a higher rate than the world’s export value. The growth rate of Japan’s export value is close to that of the world’s export value regarding “iron and steel products,” “plastic materials and organic monomers,” and the absolute level of Japan’s export value is large (Figure II-1-1-2-26).

Figure II-1-1-2-26 Growth rate of sectors related to materials

Notes: 1. Figures show geometric mean values of year-on-year changes of the world's export value and Japan’s export value from 2000 to 2013.


[Aluminum]

Gro

wth

rate

of w

orld

exp

ort v

alue

[Nickel]

[Organic polymers] [Inorganic chemicals]

[Medicines] [Rubber and rubber products]

[Tires (new)] [Articles of iron or steel]

[Cosmetics] [Copper]

[Man-made fibers]

[Products related to paints and

coloring materials] [Tools and cutlery of

base metal]

[Glass] [Organic monomers] [Plastic products] [Iron and steel]

[Plastic films, etc.]

[Carbon fibers]

Japan’s export value in 2013 [Photographic materials]

151

Table II-1-1-2-27 Intermediate-classification of product items by sector related to materials

Middle classification

Sectors Product items Chemical and plastic products Inorganic chemicals

Organic monomers Medicines Products related to paints and coloring matter Cosmetics Photographic materials Plastic products Organic polymers Plastic films, etc. Rubber and rubber products excluding new tires Tires (new)

Textiles and clothing Man-made fibers

Carbon fibers Glass

Iron and steel Iron and steel Articles of iron or steel Articles of iron or steel Non-ferrous metal Copper

Nickel Aluminum

Base metal products Tools and cutlery of base metal – Exports of cosmetics – A breakdown of the value of Japanese exports of cosmetics, which has been growing in recent years, shows that “cosmetic foundations, cream cosmetics,” etc. account for 70-80% of overall exports of such products (Figure II-1-1-2-28). Asian countries such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and China are the main export destinations (Figure II-1-1-2-29).

152

Figure II-1-1-2-28 Changes in Japan's export values of cosmetics by product item

Figure II-1-1-2-29 Japan's main export destinations of cosmetics (top 5 countries)

(b) Comparison of growth rates in subsectors of the machinery sector Regarding the middle classification of the “machinery sector,” there is no product item for which


(Billion yen) Manicures, etc. (330430) Cosmetics for lip make-up, etc. (330410) Powder cosmetics, etc. (330491) Cosmetics for eye make-up, etc. (330420) Cosmetic foundations, cream cosmetics, etc. (330499) Cosmetics (3304)


(Billion yen)

Singapore ROK China Hong Kong Taiwan Total (world)

153

Japan’s export value has been growing at a higher rate than the world’s export value. However, both Japanese exports and world exports are growing with regard to “printing machinery,” “bulldozers” and “electronic equipment for internal combustion engines.” Japanese exports of machinery and machinery parts are growing in line with world demand as Japan’s technological excellence concerning these products has a worldwide reputation (Figure II-1-1-2-30).

Figure II-1-1-2-30 Growth rate of the machinery sector

Notes: 1. Figures show geometric mean values of year-on-year changes of the world's export value and Japan’s export value from 2000 to 2013. The bubble for semiconductor-manufacturing apparatus represents geometric mean values from 2008 to 2013.


Gro

wth

rate

of w

orld

exp

ort v

alue

[Condensers]

Growth rate of Japan's export value

[Semiconductor-manufacturing

apparatus]

[Integrated circuits]

[Semiconductor devices]

[Optical microscopes] [Ball bearings]

[Medical equipment]

[Gearboxes]

[Cocks and valves]

[Printing machines]

[Bulldozers]

[Electronic machinery for internal-combustion engines] [Electric furnaces for industrial and physical and chemical use]

[Switches, etc.] [Machine

tools] [Testing and measuring

instruments] [Transmission apparatus for

radio-broadcasting or television, etc.]

154

Table II-1-1-2-31 Intermediate-classification of product items in the machinery sector


Sectors Product items

General machinery

Bulldozers Printing machines Machine tool Cocks and valves Ball bearings Gearboxes Semiconductor-manufacturing apparatus

Electrical machinery

Electronic machinery for internal-combustion engines Electric furnaces for industrial and physical and chemical use Transmission apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc. Condensers Switches, etc. (for switching of electrical circuits) Semiconductor devices Integrated circuits

Precision instruments Optical microscopes Medical equipment Testing and measuring instruments (electronic, electric and industrial)

(c) Growth rates in subsectors of the transport equipment sector Regarding the transport machinery sector, although the values of Japan’s exports of “buses” and “vessel parts” as well as “aircraft parts,” for which demand is expected to expand mainly in the United States and the EU are small, they have been growing at a higher rate than the world’s export values. Meanwhile, although the values of Japan’s exports of “passenger cars” and “motor vehicles parts” are large, they have been growing at a lower rate than the world’s export values (Figure II-1-1-2-32).

155

Figure II-1-1-2-32 Growth rate of the transport equipment sector

Table II-1-1-2-33 Intermediate-classification of product items in the transport equipment sector


Sectors Product items Vehicles Tractors Buses Passenger cars Cargo motor cars Motor vehicle parts Transport equipment excluding vehicles

Bicycle parts Railway parts Aircraft parts Marine vessels Marine vessel parts

– Exports of “aircraft parts” – The value of Japanese exports of aircraft parts was 821.6 billion yen in 2014, with exports of “aircraft parts” and “aircraft engine parts” on an uptrend. Between 2005 and 2014, the value of exports of “aircraft parts” increased by a factor of 3.6, while the value of exports of “aircraft engine parts” doubled (Figure II-1-1-2-34). As for the main export destinations, exports to the United States account

Notes: 1. Bubbles show geometric mean values of year-on-year changes of the world's export value and Japan’s export value from 2000 to 2013.


Gro

wth

rate

of w

orld

exp

ort v

alue

Growth rate of Japan's export value

[Marine vessels]

[Bicycle parts]

[Passenger cars] [Cargo motor cars]

[Tractors] [Railway parts]

[Motor vehicle parts] [Marine vessel parts]

[Buses]

[Aircraft parts]

156

for around 80% of overall exports of such parts (Figure II-1-1-2-35).

Figure II-1-1-2-34 Changes in Japan export values of aircraft parts

Figure II-1-1-2-35 Japan's main export destinations of aircraft parts (top 3 countries)

Aircraft engine parts Aircraft engines (840710) Aircraft parts (8803) Total

(Billion yen)

Notes: Total values of the aircraft engine parts are the sum of 840910, 841111, 841112, 841121, 841122, 841191, and 841210.



(Billion yen) United Kingdom Germany United States Total

(Year)

157

(E) Japan’s import shares in countries/regions (import value share) Japan’s shares of imports in its main export destination countries/regions in terms of value (import value share) have been declining. In 2014, Japan’s import value share in Taiwan was 15.3%, larger than in any other country. Other countries/regions where Japan’s import value share was large are Asian countries such as the Republic of Korea (10.2%), ASEAN5 (9.0%) and China (8.3%). Japan’s import value share in the United States, which is Japan’s largest export market, was 5.7% (Figure II-1-1-2-36).

Figure II-1-1-2-36 Shares of Japan's import values in countries and regions - import value shares-

(a) Import value share in the materials sector Next, we will look at Japanese products’ import value shares in countries/regions, mainly regarding the small classification of individual sectors (individual product items)27 (the average between 2011 and 201428). Concerning the materials sector, many Japanese products have large import shares in the Republic of Korea. In particular, among Japanese plastics products, “plastic film,

27 As for the small classification of individual sectors, refer to the list of analyzed products in the supplementary note. 28 Although Japanese exports slumped in 2009 due to the impact of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, they temporarily recovered in 2010. However, as Japanese exports dropped again in 2011 due to the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake, the import value share here is the average between 2011 and 2014.

(Year) Notes: 1. Figures for EU28 show data in and after 2002. 2. Japan’s import values in countries and regions / World import values in countries

and regions Source: Global Trade Atlas.

United States China ROK Taiwan

EU28 ASEAN5

158

etc.” has a 75% share in the Republic of Korea, with “polyethylene terephthalate,” a product item in the “plastic film, etc.” category, holding an extremely large share, 81%. Japanese “paints,” “ink” and daily necessities like “pruning shears” and “saws” also have import value shares of more than 50% in the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. The daily necessities industry generally continues to face a severe situation due to changes in consumers’ lifestyles and purchase consciousness and increased low-priced imports from Asian countries. However, the data indicates that superior Japanese products have a high reputation, mainly in the Republic of Korea, Taiwan and China29 (Figure II-1-1-2-37). Figure II-1-1-2-37 Shares of Japan's import values in countries and regions - materials sector-

(average between 2011 and 2014)

(b) Import value share in the machinery sector As for the import value share in the machinery sector, “bulldozers,” “industrial robots” and “machining centers, etc. for metal processing”30 imported from Japan hold shares of more than 50% in many countries/regions.

29 Both volume and price are increasing. As for the details. Refer to Part II, Chapter 1. Section 1. 3. “Competitiveness in export by product.” 30 “Machining centers, etc. for metal processing” are machines capable of automated metal processing.

EU28 United States China Taiwan ROK ASEAN5

Iodi

ne

Liqu

id lu

ster

, etc

. Pa

ints

Ink

Cos

met

ics

Som

e ro

lled

phot

ogra

phic

film

Dev

elop

ed p

hoto

grap

hic

film

C

hem

ical

pre

para

tions

for p

hoto

grap

hic

uses

M

ater

ials

of e

lect

roni

c pa

rts

Org

anic

pol

ymer

s A

cryl

ic p

olym

ers

Petro

leum

resi

n, e

tc.

Plas

tic fi

lm, e

tc.

Poly

ethy

lene

tere

phth

alat

e Ti

res

Car

bon

fiber

s Fl

at ro

lled p

rodu

cts of

stee

l or n

on-a

lloye

d stee

l (o

f a w

idth

of 60

0 mm

or m

ore)

Fl

at ro

lled p

rodu

cts of

othe

r non

-allo

yed s

teel (

of

a wid

th of

600 m

m or

mor

e)

Iron o

r stee

l pip

es an

d tho

se w

ith ho

llow

prof

iles

Ref

ined

cop

per

Nic

kel a

lloy

Prun

ing

shea

rs

Saw

s In

terch

ange

able

tool

s for

hand

tool

s or m

achi

ne

tool

s K

itche

n kn

ives

/kni

ves

Notes: Figures show the arithmetic average of the total shares (=Japan’s import values in countries and regions / world import values in countries and regions) between 2011 to 2014.


159

Regarding “industrial robots,” it is expected that because of the advance of robot technology, the range of applications will expand to include work processes in clean rooms of pharmaceuticals factories and more sophisticated processes in automobile factories, including welding and handling work. “Machining centers, etc. for metal processing” is a major product item in the machine tool category, as such machinery enables stable production of high-quality products through numerically controlled automated operation. Japanese exports of such machinery products are expected to increase further thanks to the expansion of demand due to advanced research conducted in developed countries and the growth of emerging countries, mainly in Asia. Regarding “polarizing sheets,” which is a product item in the precision instrumentation category, Japan has import value shares of more than 80% in the United States (87.5%) and the Republic of Korea (81.3%), and regarding “optical microscopes,” Japan’s import value share is around 50% in Asian countries, including Taiwan (49.6%) and the Republic of Korea (46.3%) (Figure II-1-1-2-38).

Figure II-1-1-2-38 Shares of Japan's import values in countries and regions - machinery sector- (average between 2011 and 2014)

EU28

Bul

ldoz

ers

United States China Taiwan ROK ASEAN5

General machinery

Prin

ting

mac

hine

s Pr

oces

sing

mac

hine

s usi

ng

lase

rs, e

tc.

Mac

hini

ng c

ente

rs fo

r met

al

proc

essi

ng, e

tc.

Proc

essi

ng m

achi

nes

(grin

ding

mac

hine

s, et

c.)

Inje

ctio

n-m

oldi

ng m

achi

nes

for l

ubbe

r and

pla

stic

Indu

stria

l rob

ots

Coc

ks a

nd v

alve

s

Bal

l bea

rings

Gea

rbox

es

Sem

icon

duct

or-m

anuf

actu

ring

appa

ratu

s

Electric machinery

Elec

troni

c m

achi

nery

for

inte

rnal

-com

bust

ion

engi

nes

Elec

tric m

achi

nes f

or in

dustr

ial

and

phys

ical

and

chem

ical

use

Tr

ansm

issio

n app

aratu

s for

radi

o-

broa

dcas

ting

or te

levisi

on, e

tc.

Car

nav

igat

ion

syst

ems

Con

dens

ers

Switc

hes,

etc.

(for

switc

hing

of

ele

ctric

al c

ircui

ts)

Sem

icon

duct

or d

evic

es

Inte

grat

ed c

ircui

ts

Notes: Figures show the arithmetic average of the total shares (= Japan’s import values in countries and regions / world import values in countries and regions) between 2011 to 2014.


160

(c) Import value share in the transport machinery sector In the transport machinery sector, Japan has large import value shares in Taiwan with regard to “buses” (84.4%), “railway vehicle parts” (83.3%), “vessel parts” (55.6%), “vessels” (48.8%) and “motor vehicle parts” (46.1%). In ASEAN5, Japan has large import value shares concerning “buses” (52.4%), “motor vehicle parts” (46.4%) and “vessel parts” (42.6%). Regarding the transport machinery sector, Japan exports transportation infrastructure-related items, such as “buses,” “railway vehicle parts,” “vessel parts” and road vehicle-related items, such as “motor vehicles parts” and “cargo motor cars,” mainly to Asian countries, capturing large import value shares there (Figure II-1-1-2-39).

EU28

Opt

ical

fibe

rs


Notes: Figures show the arithmetic average of the total shares (= Japan’s import values in countries and regions / world import values in countries and regions) between 2011 to 2014.


Pola

rizin

g m

ater

ial s

heet

s

Opt

ical

mic

rosc

opes

Liqu

id c

ryst

al d

evic

es

Ultr

ason

ic sc

anni

ng

appa

ratu

s

Med

ical

sam

ple

test

ing

inst

rum

ents

Endo

scop

es

X-r

ay c

ompu

ter t

omog

raph

y ap

para

tus

X-r

ay a

ppar

atus

for

diag

nost

ic u

se

Dev

ices

for m

easu

ring

sem

icon

duct

ors a

nd IC

s

Prod

uct i

tem

s lis

ted

on th

e A

PEC

env

ironm

enta

l goo

ds

Prod

uct i

tem

s lis

ted

on th

e In

form

atio

n Te

chno

logy

A

gree

men

t (IT

A) p

rodu

cts

Precision instruments Medical equipment Others

161

Figure II-1-1-2-39 Shares of Japan's import values in countries and regions -transport equipment sector- (average between 2011 and 2014)

(d) Import value shares in other sectors In other sectors, Japan holds import value shares of more than 50% concerning “sanitary products” in China (57.7%) and Taiwan (57.8%). Meanwhile, “ballpoint pens, etc.” imported from Japan have become increasingly popular in the United States and Europe in recent years, as products with multiple functions and resourceful ideas are stimulating consumers’ buying appetite (Figure II-1-1-2-40).

EU28 R

ailw

ay p

arts


Notes: Figures show the arithmetic average of the total import shares (= Japan’s import values in countries and regions / world import values in countries and regions) between 2011 to 2014.


Trac

tors

Bus

es

Pass

enge

r car

s

Car

go m

otor

ca

rs

Mot

or v

ehic

le

parts

Bic

ycle

par

ts

Airc

raft

parts

Mar

ine

vess

els

Mar

ine

vess

el

parts

162

Figure II-1-1-2-40 Shares of Japan's import values in countries and regions -other sectors- (average between 2011 and 2014)

(F) Summary of growth rates and import value shares (a) Materials sector In the materials sector, Japan’s export value has been growing at a higher rate than the world’s export value with regard to “photographic materials31” and “plastic film, etc.” Regarding “plastic film, etc,” Japan has large import value shares in Taiwan (68.4%) and the Republic of Korea (74.4%), with its share concerning polyethylene terephthalate, an individual product item in the “plastic film, etc.” category, reaching as high as 81.6% in the Republic of Korea. Japan also holds large import value shares in Asian countries, including China, Taiwan and the Republic of Korea, concerning “pruning shears” and “saws,” which are product items in the “manual tools, blades, etc. made of base metal” category (Table II-1-1-2-41).

31 As for the import value share concerning major export products in “the photographic materials” category, Japan has a share of more than 50% concerning “chemical preparations for photographic uses” in all markets except for ASEAN5 and it also has a share of more than 50% concerning “developed photographic film” in Taiwan and the Republic of Korea. However, the market for photographic materials is shrinking as a trend due to the advance of digitization.

EU28 United States China Taiwan ROK ASEAN5

Notes: 1. Figures show the arithmetic average of the total import value shares (= Japan’s import values in countries and regions / world import values in countries and regions) between 2011 to 2014.

2. Figures for sanitary products show the average value between 2012 and 2014. Figures for sanitary products in Taiwan show the average value between 2013 and 2014.


Ball-point pens, etc. Pencils/crayons, etc. Typewriter ribbons, etc.

Sanitary products (diapers, etc.)

163

Table II-1-1-2-41 Overview of the materials sector material sector


Growth rate of export value

(average between 2000

and 2013)

Small classification

Shares of Japan’s import values in countries and regions

(import value shares) (2011-2014)

Reference: Export value

(in the world) (billion dollars)

Sectors Product items World Japan Individual product items EU28 United

States China Taiwan ROK ASEAN5 2011 2012 2013

Chemical and plastic products

Inorganic chemicals

8.5% 4.9% 49.5 44.2 39.5 Iodine 17.1

% 8.5% 6.2% 55.0% 36.0% 18.5% 1.0 1.3 1.4

Organic monomers 8.6% 6.3% 246.6 234.0 262.9 Medicines 13.6% 4.3% 38.1 33.9 32.4 Products related to paints and coloring matter

6.4% 4.4% 52.5 50.8 43.8 Liquid luster,

etc. 50.3

% 0.4% 14.8% 30.5% 42.9

% 15.1% 4.1 4.2 3.9

Paints 7.9% 9.2% 25.8% 57.3% 60.4

% 23.2% 22.9 22.6 19.0

Ink 33.8% 15.5% 34.6

% 52.4% 53.8% 35.3% 7.3 7.7 8.0

Cosmetics 11.4% 8.3% 4.4% 3.7% 22.1% 37.8% 16.8

% 12.7% 13.6 12.9 11.5 Photographic materials

-0.9% 1.0% 49.6 47.8 45.0 Some rolled photographic film

2.3% 35.7% 19.4% 29.6% 29.5

% 4.5% 1.7 1.3 1.1

Developed photographic film

39.9% 32.1% 21.2

% 64.3% 82.8% 32.8% 3.5 3.5 3.9

Chemical preparations for photographic use

68.5% 75.7% 61.6

% 84.4% 89.5% 48.0% 29.5 29.2 28.5

Chemicals for materials of electronic parts

30.7% 49.3% 20.9

% 29.4% 44.7% 17.3% 39.1 30.0 25.8

Plastic products 8.9% 6.6% 303.8 285.3 257.0 Organic polymers 9.2% 4.3% 6.6% 8.2% 10.1

% 24.3% 23.4% 11.6% 130.1 120.0 112.8

Acrylic polymers

26.9% 20.2% 26.5

% 31.5% 51.1% 18.8% 18.0 15.9 13.0

Petroleum resin, etc.

10.6% 13.7% 34.1

% 40.4% 23.6% 19.0% 6.5 6.6 6.6

Plastic films, etc. 8.9% 10.3

% 7.9% 7.2% 31.3% 68.4% 74.4

% 17.0% 127.7 119.5 104.3

Polyethylene terephthalate 6.8% 5.8% 37.0

% 41.7% 81.6% 9.4% 20.7 19.3 17.1

Rubber and rubber products excluding new tires

10.4% 6.1% 67.1 67.9 61.6

Tires (new) 10.4% 6.4% 12.2% 11.4% 29.7

% 23.1% 15.1% 25.4% 82.5 80.9 72.8


Man-made fibers 3.4% 0.2% 46.2 45.3 42.0

Carbon fibers 10.5% 7.0% 17.2% 27.9% 48.7

% 51.0% 42.5% 30.5% 9.5 7.9 7.4

Glass Glass 6.9% 4.5% 66.9 62.0 48.2 Iron and Iron and steel 8.7% 7.4% 387.9 351.7 315.2

164

steel Flat rolled products of steel or non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more)

0.6% 4.8% 64.3% 57.2% 51.8

% 44.1% 99.5 96.4 89.8

Flat rolled products of other non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more)

4.1% 16.9% 46.3% 28.5% 12.1

% 45.1% 65.6 57.9 49.7

Articles of iron or steel


10.2% 7.2% 142.3 154.9 134.7

Iron and steel pipes and those with hollow profiles

18.4% 11.5% 32.3

% 38.7% 32.5% 30.2% 42.5 45.0 40.7

Non-ferrous metal

Copper 10.3% 8.3% 85.8 84.4 79.2 Refined

copper 0.3% 0.9% 7.1% 28.1% 8.0% 21.0% 40.7 45.2 43.6 Nickel 7.9% 4.4% 8.6 8.5 7.3

Nickel alloy pipes and pipe joints

12.9% 12.5% 16.1

% 27.0% 64.6% 17.0% 1.9 2.4 1.9

Aluminum 6.7% 2.1% 26.5 22.8 21.0

Base metal products

Tools and cutlery of base metal

7.0% 4.1% 16.9 16.2 14.7 Pruning

shears 2.4% 2.9% 50.8% 71.4% 65.7

% 6.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1

Saws 6.1% 7.6% 27.8% 51.9% 50.8

% 11.4% 1.7 1.5 1.4

Interchangeable tools for hand tools or machine tools

11.7% 20.6% 30.5

% 38.3% 24.0% 38.9% 23.9 27.2 24.4

Kitchen knives and knives

6.2% 8.0% 25.5% 27.1% 11.2

% 15.0% 1.6 1.4 1.2

Notes: 1. Colored product items show that Japan’s growth rate is larger than the world growth rate. 2. Colored product items show that the shares of the items account for more than 50% in the sector of

the country and region. 3. Reference: The scale of the export values (in the world) is equivalent to the size of bubbles shown

in Figure II-1-2-2-26, excluding those having excluded items. (b) Machinery sector In the “machinery sector,” although the growth rate of Japan’s export value is not higher than that of the world export value concerning any product item, the growth gap is only around 1 percentage point with regard to “bulldozers” and “printing machines.” As for the import value share, Japan has large shares in most countries and regions excluding the Republic of Korea and ASEAN5 with regard to bulldozers, with its share in Taiwan particularly high at 73.2%. Concerning “rubber and plastics injection molding machines” and “industrial robots,” Japan has import value shares of around 50% to 70% mainly in Asian countries. Regarding “machining centers, etc, for metal processing,” which is a product item in the machine tool category, Japan holds

165

large import value shares in most countries/regions excluding EU28, with its share in Taiwan particularly high at 79.3%. With regard to “polarizing sheets,” which is a product item in the precision instrument category, Japan’s import value share is higher than 80% in the United States (87.5%) and the Republic of Korea (81.3%) and is also high in Taiwan (53.8%). Concerning “optical microscopes,” Japan has large import value shares, mainly in Asia, including Taiwan (49.6%) and the Republic of Korea (46.3%) (Table II-1-1-2-42).

Table II-1-1-2-42 Overview of the machinery sector Machinery sector

Middle

classification


(average between 2000

and 2013)

Small classification



Reference: Export value (in the world)

(billion dollars)

Sectors Product items World Japan Individual product items

EU28

United States China Taiwan ROK ASE

AN5 2011 2012 2013

General machinery

Bulldozers 8.9% 8.1% Bulldozers 53.2% 50.8% 53.5% 73.2% 47.3

% 36.9

% 116.4 114.2 85.7 Printing machines 18.9% 17.4

% Printing machines

25.2% 21.8% 29.1% 28.5% 22.8

% 27.3

% 151.4 137.5 125.1

Injection-molding machines for rubber and plastic

20.4% 29.8% 53.6% 63.3% 61.8

% 46.3

% 13.3 14.7 12.0

Industrial robots

60.9% 22.7% 54.5% 58.0% 75.6

% 58.9

% 15.3 14.5 12.5

Machine tool 5.2% 2.4%

Processing machines using lasers, etc.

12.9% 30.8% 25.4% 59.9% 37.4

% 29.7

% 11.7 9.3 8.2

Machining centers for metal processing, etc.

35.9% 55.4% 50.9% 79.3% 58.3

% 57.8

% 45.4 55.1 31.8

Processing machines (grinding machines, etc.)

9.8% 23.3% 25.5% 43.8% 54.6

% 63.9

% 12.9 15.2 9.5

Cocks and valves 10.7% 6.4% Cocks and

valves 5.9% 10.4% 19.6% 24.6% 17.1

% 13.6

% 53.3 49.7 45.1

Ball bearings 7.7% 4.3% Ball bearings 25.8% 28.0% 29.4% 41.1% 35.4

% 33.8

% 57.0 50.9 43.6

Gearboxes 10.1% 5.2% Gearboxes 16.7% 15.5% 23.3% 40.3% 17.4

% 37.8

% 64.4 64.3 56.5 Semiconductor-manufacturing apparatus

4.7% -0.3%

Semiconductor-manufacturing apparatus

30.5% 45.2% 32.5% 32.0% 37.5

% 22.8

% 209.6 146.6 126.9

Electrical machinery

Lithium ion storage batteries

20% 36% 26% 10% 28% 27% 0.0 22.9 20.5

Electronic machinery for internal-combustion engines

7.2% 6.2% Electronic machinery for internal-combustion engines

43.6% 35.8% 33.9% 40.3% 45.5

% 45.7

% 35.7 37.8 36.4

Electric furnaces for industrial and physical and chemical use

5.2% 4.2%


9.6% 19.0% 14.6% 58.2% 36.9

% 27.2

% 6.3 5.8 5.9

Wireless base stations*

2.4% 0.9% 1.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 2.2 1.7 0.6

Transmission -3.7% -3.8 Transmission 33. 17.6% 17.4% 20.7% 32.7 25.2 85.1 93.6 59.2

166

apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc.

% apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc.

9% % %

Car navigation systems

19.6% 14.6% 22.3% 1.9% 6.8% 13.3

% 5.8 6.8 5.9

Condensers 2.0% -1.5% Condensers 35.

3% 28.8% 28.9% 34.4% 34.6%

28.6% 54.1 48.0 43.1

Switches, etc. (or switching of electrical circuits)

6.6% 3.3% Switches, etc. (or switching of electrical circuits)

9.2% 9.8% 26.3% 29.8% 25.5

% 21.8

% 84.3 85.8 78.0

Semiconductor devices 8.0% 0.4% Semiconductor

devices 7.0% 12.9% 17.5% 27.9% 25.3

% 22.4

% 122.6 108.5 90.6 Integrated circuits 5.5% -0.9

% Integrated circuits

9.3% 6.3% 7.0% 17.4% 10.1

% 7.1% 320.1 305.9 269.9

Precision instruments

Optical fibers 10.6% 7.3% 15.0% 34.6% 25.0

% 11.9

% 5.1 5.3 4.3

Polarizing material sheets

20.7% 87.5% 28.6% 53.8% 81.3

% 49.9

% 37.4 42.7 37.7 Optical microscopes 7.7% 2.7% Optical

microscopes 23.0% 23.7% 39.6% 49.6% 46.3

% 37.7

% 3.4 3.5 3.0

Liquid crystal devices**

11.3% 9.0% 11.1% 15.8% 8.7% 21.5

% 77.0 64.2 53.8 Medical equipment 10.8% 4.8% 63.9 65.4 63.0

Ultrasonic scanning apparatus

18.1% 14.3% 14.8% 31.5% 16.6

% 24.4

% 6.0 5.4 4.6

Medical sample testing instruments

5.8% 23.1% 9.5% 10.0% 9.0% 11.3

% 9.6 10.0 11.1

Endoscopes 10.6% 3.2% 19.3% 20.4% 16.5

% 9.5% 11.7 12.3 12.3

X-ray computer tomography apparatus

21.2% 21.3% 30.0% 26.0% 24.8

% 37.3

% 5.5 5.1 4.6

X-ray apparatus for diagnostic use

18.2% 6.5% 6.1% 29.5% 12.2

% 26.8

% 4.4 4.4 3.6

Testing and measuring instruments (electronic, electric and industrial)

6.3% 3.6% 123.7 128.4 111.9

Devices for measuring semiconductors and ICs*

11.2% 21.1% 19.5% 25.8% 29.4

% 18.4

% 19.2 19.4 15.4

Product items listed on the APEC environmental goods

9.5% 11.9% 17.3% 30.8% 23.4

% 19.5

%

Product items listed on the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) products

6.8% 6.4% 10.9% 19.3% 16.2

% 10.0

%

Notes 1. Product items with three asterisks *** are the items listed both on the APEC environmental goods

and the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) items.

167

2. Product items with one asterisk * are the items listed on the ITA products. 3. Figures for lithium ion batteries show the average values between 2012 and 2014 (for Taiwan only

the average between 2013 and 2014). 4. Colored product items show that Japan’s growth rate is larger than the world growth rate. 5. Colored product items show that the shares of the items account for more than 50% in the sector

of country and region. 6. Reference: The scale of the export values (in the world) is equivalent to the size of bubbles shown

in Figure II-1-2-2-27. (c) Transport machinery sector In the transport machinery sector, Japan’s export value has been growing at a higher rate than the world’s export value with regard to “buses,” “aircraft parts” and “vessel parts.” As for the import value share, Japan has large shares in Taiwan (84.4%) and ASEAN5 (52.4%) concerning buses. With regard to “aircraft parts,” Japan’s import value share is highest in the United States (17.2%). In Taiwan, Japan also holds large import value shares concerning “railway vehicle parts” (83.3%) and vessel parts (55.6%) (Table II-1-1-2-43).

168

Table II-1-1-2-43 Overview of the transport equipment sector Transport equipment sector

Middle level classification

(Detailed classification)

Growth rate of export

value (average between 2000 and

2013)



Reference: Export value (in the world)

(billion dollars)

Sectors Product items World Japan EU28 United States China Taiwan ROK ASE

AN5 2011 2012 2013

Vehicles

Tractors 8.8% 4.2% 15.8% 11.0% 6.2% 29.0% 16.5

% 23.1

% 22.2 23.1 18.9

Buses 7.6% 9.8% 0.1% 0.0% 40.9% 84.4% 0.0% 52.4% 29.2 34.2 31.9

Passenger cars 6.3% 3.7% 24.7% 24.1% 15.6% 30.6% 11.9

% 27.3

% 873.

4 974.

6 916.

9 Cargo motor cars 6.6% 4.1% 2.4% 3.7% 21.6% 28.3% 2.3% 32.1

% 112.

7 125.

1 101.

1 Motor vehicle parts 7.4% 4.7% 18.7

% 13.8% 31.4% 46.1% 17.0%

46.4%

533.4

564.3

501.5

Transport equipment

Bicycle parts 6.7% 3.1% 15.3% 13.0% 13.9% 25.4% 17.3

% 3.8% 9.8 9.8 7.7

Railway parts 10.1% 5.7% 1.0% 12.7% 23.9% 83.3% 25.7% 7.7% 6.5 6.3 5.7

Aircraft parts 5.4% 9.2% 3.5% 17.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.7% 1.6% 52.1 63.3 69.1 Marine vessels 10.3% 3.2% 1.2% 1.1% 17.0% 48.8% 20.3

% 5.6% 260.5

222.3

153.8

Marine vessel parts 7.9% 10.0

% 13.8

% 10.7% 22.9% 55.6% 34.0%

42.6% 9.4 7.4 6.7

Notes 1. Colored product items show that Japan’s growth rate is larger than the world growth rate. 2. Colored product items show that the shares of the items account for more than 50% in the sector

of country and region. 3. In the transport equipment sector, product items covered by the middle level classification are the

same as those covered by the small classification. 4. Reference: The scale of the export values (in the world) is equivalent to the size of bubbles shown

in Figure II-1-2-2-28.

169

Table II-1-1-2-44 List of analyzed products in the materials sector material sector

Middle level classification Detailed classification Sectors HS

codes Product items HS codes Individual product items HS codes


28-40

Inorganic chemicals 28 Iodine 280120 Organic monomers 29 Medicines 30 Products related to paints and coloring matter, excluding paints

32 (excluding 3201-3202)

Liquid luster, etc. 320730

Paints 3208-3212 321490

Ink 3215 Cosmetics 3304 Cosmetics 3304

Photographic materials 37

Some rolled photographic film 370242

Developed photographic film 3705

Chemical preparations for photographic uses 3707

Chemicals for materials of electronic parts 3818

Plastic products 39 Organic polymers 3901-3914 Organic polymers 3901-3914

Acrylic polymers 3906

Petroleum resin, etc. 3911 Plastic film, etc. 3919-3921 Plastic film, etc. 3919-3921

Polyethylene terephthalate 392062 Rubber and rubber products excluding new tires

40 (excluding 4011)

Tires (new) 4011 Tires (new) 4011 Textiles and clothing 53-63 Man-made fibers 54-55

Carbon fibers 6815 Carbon fibers 6815 Glass 70 Glass 70

Iron and steel 72 Iron and steel, excluding

scraps 72 (excluding

7204)

Flat rolled products of steel or non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more)

7208


7225

Articles of iron or steel 73 Articles of iron or steel 73 Iron and steel pipes and

those with hollow profiles 7304

Non-ferrous metal, excluding scraps*

74-81

Copper, excluding scraps 74, 854411 (excluding

7404) Refined copper 7403

Nickel, excluding scraps 75 (excluding 7503)

Nickel alloy pipes and pipe joints 750712

Aluminum, excluding scraps

76 (excluding 7602)

Base metal products 82 Tools and cutlery of base

metal, excluding scraps 82 (excluding

8207) Pruning shears 820150

820160 Saws 8202

170

Interchangeable tools for hand tools or machine tools 8207

Kitchen knives and knives 8211 Note: In this list, “scraps*” include: 7802, 7902, 8002, 810199, 810297, 810330, 810420, 810530, 810730, 810830, 810930, 811020, 811213, 811222 and 811252.

171

Table II-1-1-2-45 List of analyzed products in the machinery sector Machinery sector

Middle level classification Detailed classification Sectors HS

codes Product items HS codes Individual product items HS codes

General machinery 84

Bulldozers 8429 Printing machines 8443

(Machine tools 8456-8461)

Processing machines using lasers, etc. 8456

Machining centers for metal processing, etc. 8457

Processing machines (grinding machines, etc.) 8460

Injection-molding machines for rubber and plastic 847710

Industrial robots 847950 Cocks and valves 8481 Ball bearings 8482 Gearboxes 8483 Semiconductor-manufacturing apparatus 8486

Electrical machinery 85

Lithium ion storage batteries 850760


8511


8514

Wireless base stations 851761* Transmission apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc.

8525

Car navigation systems 852859 Condensers 8532 Switches, etc. (or switching of electrical circuits)

8536

Semiconductor devices 8541 Integrated circuits 8542

Precision instruments 90

Optical fibers 900110

854470

Polarizing material sheets 900120 Optical microscopes 9011

Liquid crystal devices 901380***

Medical equipment 9018-9022

Ultrasonic scanning apparatus 901812

Medical sample testing instruments 901819

Endoscopes 901890 X-ray computer tomography apparatus 902212

172

X-ray apparatus for diagnostic use 902214


9030-9032 Devices for measuring semiconductors and ICs

903082* 903089

903141* Product items listed on the APEC environmental goods Product items listed on the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) products Notes: 1. Product items with three asterisks *** are the items listed both on the APEC environmental goods

and the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) products. 2. Product Items with one asterisk * are the items listed on the ITA products.

173

Table II-1-1-2-46 List of analyzed products in the transport equipment sector Transport equipment sector

Middle level classification (Detailed classification)

Sectors HS codes Product items HS codes

Vehicles 87

Tractors 8701 Buses 8702 Passenger cars 8703 Cargo motor cars 8704

Motor vehicle parts

8706-8708 840731-840734

840790 840820 840991 840999 854430

Transport equipment excluding vehicles 86, 88, 89

Bicycle parts 871491-871499

Railway parts 8603 8607

Aircraft parts

8803 840710 840910 841111 841112 841121 841122 841191 841210

(Marine vessels 89) Marine vessel parts 840610 840810

Note: In the transport equipment sector, product items covered by the middle level classification are the same as those covered by the detailed classification. (excluding floater, excluding 8907, 8918)

Table II-1-1-2-47 List of analyzed products in other sectors Product items HS codes Stationery goods Ball-point pens, etc. 9608 Pencils/crayons, etc. 9609 Other products Ink cartridges, etc. 9612


9619

174

Column 2 Export trend concerning agricultural, forestry and fishery products (1) Export trend concerning Japanese agricultural, forestry and fishery products (A) Changes in the export values of agricultural, forestry and fishery products At a time when the domestic market for Japanese agricultural, forestry and fishery products and foods is expected to shrink amid the ongoing aging of society coupled with the low birth rate, the government aims to expand sales of such products in overseas markets by setting the goal of “increasing the value of exports of agricultural, forestry and fishery products and foods to 1 trillion yen by 2020” as a pillar of the Japan Revitalization Strategy. The export value of Japan’s agricultural, forestry and fishery products and foods has been on an uptrend in recent years, increasing from 449.7 billion yen in 2012 to 611.7 billion yen in 2014. Of the total value, agricultural products account for 356.9 billion yen, more than half, followed by fishery products with 233.7 billion yen and forestry products with 21.1 billion yen (Column Figure 2-1). The export value of Japanese agricultural, forestry and fishery products and foods has been growing on the tailwind of the registration of traditional Japanese cuisine on the UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage list and the Japanese food boom abroad. Therefore, we will examine the export trend concerning Japanese agricultural, forestry and fishery products in this column.

Column Figure 2-1 Changes in Japan's export values of agricultural, forestry and fishery products

(B) Main export destinations for Japanese agricultural, forestry and fishery products and the export value of major export products (a) Export values concerning major export destinations (top 10 export destinations)

Fishery Products

(Year) Source: Overview of Foreign Trade of Agricultural, Forestry, and Fishery Products 2014: Established values (MAFF).


Agricultural, forestry, and fishery products Agricultural products Forestry products

175

For Japanese agricultural, forestry and fishery products, Hong Kong is the largest export destination, with the value of Japanese exports to the region at 134.3 billion yen (accounting for 22% of overall exports of agricultural, forestry and fishery products). Also among the top export destinations are the United States and Asian countries/regions, including Taiwan and China (Figure Column 2-2). In particular, in Hong Kong, which is the largest export market for Japan, Japanese agricultural, forestry and fishery products have been consistently popular as Japanese foods have a reputation for being safe and delicious32.

Column Figure 2-2 Japan's main export destination countries of agricultural, forestry and fishery products (top 10 countries)

(b) Export values concerning major export products (the top 15 product) A breakdown of major Japanese export items among agricultural, forestry and fishery products shows that “scallops,” “alcoholic beverage,” “pearls” and “sauce-based seasonings” are among the top export items (Column Figure 2-3). In particular, the value of scallop exports is large, with the United States (31.4%), China (29.9%) and Vietnam (15.2%) as the main export destinations33.

32 Factors behind Japanese foods’ popularity in Hong Kong include the absence of tariffs on food imports there, the relatively few restrictions on imports compared with other countries, an environment that is willing to accept foreign culinary cultures and the presence of a relatively large number of Japanese nationals as consumers of Japanese foods. According to the Annual Report of Statistics on Japanese Nationals Overseas (Summary 2014) (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), the number of Japanese nationals living in Hong Kong is 25,000, while the number of Japanese companies with business footholds there is 634. 33 Although scallops are mainly eaten raw in Japan as sashimi or sushi, they are primarily grilled or used as

[Canada] 7.4 billion yen (1.2%)

[Australia] 9.4 billion yen (1.5%)

[Singapore] 18.9 billion yen (3.1%)

[Vietnam] 29.2 billion yen (5.7%)

[Thailand] 34.8 billion yen (5.7%)

[ROK] 40.9 billion yen (6.7%)

[China] 62.2 billion yen

(10.2%)

[Taiwan] 83.7 billion yen (13.7%)

[United States] 93.2 billion yen (15.2%)

[Hong Kong] 134.3 billion yen

(22%)

[Others in total] 97.7 billion yen

(15.9%)

Total export value of agricultural, forestry, and

fishery products in 2014

611.7 billion yen

Source: Overview of Foreign Trade of Agricultural, Forestry, and Fishery Products 2014: Established values (MAFF).

176

Column Figure 2-3 Japan's major export items among agricultural, forestry and fishery products in 2014 (top 15 items)

(2) World market demand for Japanese foods (A) “Processed foods” as a driver of exports of Japanese agricultural products amid the Japanese food boom “Processed foods” (seasonings, alcoholic beverages, etc.), which account for the largest portion, around 50% (in 2014), of the value of overall agricultural product exports, has been leading exports of Japanese agricultural products on the back of the Japanese food boom34 abroad in recent years. In particular, the export value of seasonings has grown from 25.33 billion yen in 2012 to 30.75 billion yen in 2014. Since 2012, “sauce-based seasonings” and “soy sauce” has led the export growth, with the export value increasing from 19.52 billion yen (2012) to 22.99 billion yen (2014) for the former and from 3.67 billion yen to 5.18 billion yen for the latter (Column Figure 2-4). ingredients in such heated dishes as clam chowder in the United States. In China, scallops are treasured as delicacies along with shark fin and dried abalone. In addition, scallops are food items not subject to religious constraints as exemplified by the halal requirement under Islam. As a result, scallops are called “global food,” with demand growing in various countries. 34 According to the results of the estimation made by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries with cooperation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Japanese diplomatic missions abroad (“Popularity of Japanese Foods and Food Culture Abroad (June 2013)”（http://www.maff.go.jp/j/shokusan/eat/pdf/20130620.pdf）, the number of Japanese food restaurants abroad increased from 24,000 in 2006 to around 55,000 in March 2013.

[Scallops] 4.47 billion yen

[Alcoholic beverages] 29.4

billion yen

[Others in total] 347.8 billion yen

Total export value of

agricultural, forestry, and

fishery products in 2014

611.7 billion yen

[Pearls (wild, cultured)] 24.5 billion yen

[Sauce-based seasonings] 23.0 billion yen

[Tobacco] 19.5 billion yen

[Refreshing beverages] 15.9 billion yen

[Bonitos/tunas] 15.8 billion yen

[Confectionery, excluding rice confectionery] 14.8 billion yen

[Sowing seeds, etc.] 12.8 billion yen

[Pig skins (raw skins)] 11.6 billion yen

[Mackerels (fresh, chilled, frozen)] 11.5 billion yen

[Salmons/trouts (fresh, chilled, frozen)] 11.4 billion yen

[Dried sea cucumbers] 10.4

billion yen [Yellowtails (fresh, chilled,

frozen)] 10.0 billion yen [Apples] 8.6 billion

yen

Source: Overview of Foreign Trade of Agricultural, Forestry, and Fishery Products 2014: Established values (MAFF).

177

Column Figure 2-4 Changes in export values of seasonings

(B) “Rice and processed rice products” as Japanese specialty Concerning “rice and processed rice products,” which is Japan’s mainstay agricultural product item, the export value of “processed rice products” (rice confectionery and sake) is growing more than the export value of rice (Column Figure 2-5).

Soy sauce (210310000)


(100 million yen)

Miso paste (210390100) Sauce-based seasonings (210390900) Seasonings (2103)

178

Column Figure 2-5 Changes in Japan's export values of rice and processed rice products

(C) Main export destinations for sake rice wine The main export destinations for sake rice wine (refined sake), exports of which have risen to a record high, are the United States with an export value of 4.13 billion yen, Hong Kong with 1.83 billion yen and the Republic of Korea with 1.31 billion yen (Column Figure 2-6).

Rice (1006)


(100 million yen)

Rice confectionery (190590100)

Sake rice wine (refined sake) (220600200)

179

Column Figure 2-6 Export values of sake rice wine (refined sake) and main export destinations

(D) Growing reputation of the quality of Japan’s agricultural products As Japanese vegetables and fruits have a high reputation for their good quality in terms of safety, demand from wealthy people abroad is growing. The export value of Japanese fruits and vegetables in 2014 was 24.3 billion yen, accounting for 6.8% of overall exports of agricultural products. (a) Vegetable exports The export value of Japanese vegetables rose from 2.73 billion yen in 2012 to 4.26 billion yen in 2014. Of the export value, “yams” accounted for 2.81 billion yen, followed by “mushrooms” with 0.85 billion yen and “dried vegetables” with 0.34 billion yen. The main export destinations for Japanese vegetables are Taiwan, which took 45% of vegetables exported from Japan, followed by the United States with 22% and Hong Kong with 15% (Colum Figures 2-7 and 2-8). In particular, yams produced in Japan are used in Taiwan as ingredients in medicinal cuisine and Chinese drugs.

180

Column Figure 2-7 Changes in Japan's export values of vegetables

Column Figure 2-8 Japan's main export destinations of vegetables

Thailand, 2%

Others, 2%

Taiwan, 45%

United States, 22%

Hong Kong, 15%

Singapore, 11%

Malaysia, 2%

Viet Nam, 2%

Total export value in 2014

4.26 billion yen


181

(b) Fruits exports The export value of Japanese fruits increased steeply from 5.88 billion yen in 2012 to 13.24 billion yen in 2014. Apples accounted for nearly 70% (69.4%) of overall fruits exports. The main export destinations for Japanese fruits are Taiwan, which took 61% of vegetables exported from Japan, followed by Hong Kong with 24% and China with 5% (Column Figures 2-9 and 2-10).

Column Figure 2-9 Changes in Japan's export values of fruits


(100 million yen) Grapes including dried products (0806) Peaches (0809) Citrus fruits (0805) Strawberries, persimmons (0810) Fruits (08)

Apples, pears (0808)

182

Column Figure 2-10 Japan's main export destinations of fruits

(3) Summary Exports of Japanese agricultural products have been growing year after year, with the United States and Asian countries such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and China as the main export destinations. In particular, markets for Japanese foods have been well established in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and they are attractive export markets. In addition, exports of sake rice wine to the United States have been increasing due to the Japanese food boom there. Japan’s agricultural products have a high reputation for their quality in terms of deliciousness and safety, with fruits in particular consistently popular among wealthy people in Asian countries. If Japan is to increase the export value of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the future, expanding consumption also among the middle class will be a challenge. To deal with the challenges Japan faces in expanding exports, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) formulated and announced the Comprehensive Export Strategy for Japan’s Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Products and Foods in August 2013. Moreover, in June 2014, the MAFF established the Export Strategy Executive Committee in order to review measures based on the strategy and hold discussions about the system for the whole of Japan, including the public and private sectors, to implement effective measures to expand exports, thereby promoting cooperation between producing regions and initiatives to establish the “Japan Brand.” Meanwhile, many countries/regions have imposed import restrictions on Japanese agricultural, forestry and fishery products and foods in recent years following the accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. Japanese government ministries and agencies are working together to persuade the countries/regions to relax and remove the restrictions by

China, 5%

Canada, 3%

Singapore,1%

Hong Kong, 25%


Total export value in 2014

13.24 billion yen

Thailand, 3%

Others, 2%

Taiwan, 61%

183

providing scientific data35.

35 The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2015)

184

3. “Competitiveness in export” by product item So far, we have looked at the trends concerning Japan’s and the world’s major export products. However, we can identify Japanese manufacturing industries’ competitiveness in export more specifically by examining in detail the state of products classified in more detail (export value, price, volume and these growth) in addition to looking at the overall export value. Therefore, we will take a look mainly at Japan’s export trend concerning products classified by the six-digit HS coding system, which is the most detailed tariff number classification system that enables international comparison. (1) Products with growing export value (international comparison) First, we will conduct comparison between major countries in terms of the share of six-digit HS code items with growing export value (six-digit HS code items shall be hereinafter referred to as “items”) in their overall export value. The major countries discussed here are the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, China and the Republic of Korea, which are export competitors of Japan. The selection method of items with growing export value is as described in Figure II-1-1-3-1.

Figure II-1-1-3-1 International comparison of shares of items with growing export value (selection method)

1. Identifying the items with growing export value *Items are determined as those with growing export value when they are at higher levels of recent export values than before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and their recent export value is growing. Items shown in the data of countries’ export value in the world between 2005 and 2014 are to be categorized into those with growing export value and other items by six-digit HS code according to the criteria of determining the growth.(*)

(*) Criteria of determining the growth Export value of items is considered as “growing” when such value in either year of 2013 and 2014 is larger than in any two years between 2005 and 2008 and also when such value in the five years between 2010 and 2014 has grown on a year-on-year basis for three years or more. For details, see the footnote below (see the footnote)70.

2. Calculating the shares of the countries’ total of items with growing export value, which are so

identified in Step 1 above, in the world overall export value The share of items with growing export value in the overall export value is 47% for Japan, whereas the share is higher than 70% for Germany, the United States, the Republic of Korea, the United

70 For specific criteria, simpler methods might be considered, such as adopting the export values in 2014 exceeding those in 2008. However, as for specific items, their export value in a single year often changes depending on the individual circumstance, such as build-to-order manufacturing cases, apart from long-term trends. Thus, we decided to adopt the long-term outlook over years, described in the figure, so as to avoid such volatility in the statistics.

185

Kingdom and China (Figure II-1-1-3-2). Given that Japan’s exports have been stagnant in recent years compared with exports by other countries, it is natural that Japan’s share of items with growing export value is small. However, the growth trends concerning the shares of items with growing export value and the overall export value are not necessarily consistent with each other, with some countries recording low growth in their overall export value despite their large share of items with growing export value (Figure II-1-1-3-3).

Figure II-1-1-3-2 Shares of items with growing export value in overall export value in 2014

(Billion dollars)

Notes: Items with growing export value mean items whose export value to the world between 2005 and 2014 are increasing (six-digit HS items). Figures are dollar-based.

Source: GTA.

Items with growing export value Other items

Share of items with growing export value (right scale)

Japan France Germany United States

ROK United Kingdom

China

186

Figure II-1-1-3-3 Comparison of growth rates of export value to the world

Therefore, we will conduct comparision in terms of export value growth of items with growing export value and other items. The export growth of items with growing export value between 2005 and 2014 is outstandingly high for China and the Republic of Korea (Figure II-1-1-3-4). As for the export value of other items, the United Kingdom and France are recording a steep decline. A comparison between Japan and Germany shows that the rate of export value growth of items with growing export value is higher for Japan than for Germany, while the rate of export value decline of other items is smaller for Japan than for Germany. Nevertheless, the rate of overall export value growth is higher for Germany than for Japan because the share of items with growing export value is larger in Germany, as was mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, a comparison between Germany and the United Kingdom shows that whereas the shares of items with growing export value (Figure II-1-1-3-2) and the rates of export value growth (Figure II-1-1-3-3) for the counries are similar, their trends in export value growth concerning items with growing export value and other items are quite different. That is presumably because the two countries are recording growth concerning different types of items and because the situations of the items are different.

Notes: Growth rates are calculated based on the sum of export values between 2011 and 2014 and those between 2005 and 2008.



ROK United Kingdom

China

187

Figure II-1-1-3-4 Export value growth rates of items with growing export value and other items (2011-2014/2005-2008)

Next, we will look at in which industries the share of items with growing export value is large in individual countries (Figure II-1-1-3-5), with attention focused on eight major sectors: chemicals and plastics, textiles and textile articles, iron and steel products, nonferrous metals, general machinery, electrical machinery, precision machinery and transportation equipment71. First, in the case of Japan, the share of items with growing export value is around 30-50% except in the transportation equipment and precision machinery sectors. On the other hand, in the cases of China and Germany, the share of items with growing export value is large in all sectors, providing a contrast to Japan’s situation. In the case of the United States, although the share of items with growing export value is small in some sectors, it is larger than 60% in major sectors such as transportation equipment, general machinery and chemicals and plastics. In the case of the United Kingdom, there is a significant disparity between major sectors: in the transportation equipment sector, which is the largest sector, the share of items with growing export value is larger than 80%, whereas the share of such items is just over 50% in other major sectors like chemicals and plastics and electrical machinery.

71 As for the specifics of the “eight major sectors” and the customs tariff numbers of items examined here, see Figure II-1-1-3-67. Iron and steel products and nonferrous metals do not include “scraps.” Major parts for transportation equipment are included in “transportation equipment” but not in “general machinery,” etc.

Notes: Items with growing export value mean items whose export value to the world between 2005 and 2014 have increased based on the criteria defined separately. Figures are dollar-based. ((sum of value between 2011-2014)-(sum of value between 2005 and 2008)) / (sum of value between 2005 and 2008)

Source: GTA.


ROK United Kingdom

China

Items with growing export value

Other items

188

Figure II-1-1-3-5 Share of items with growing export value in major countries in eight major sectors

(Billion dollars)

Notes: Export value of items to the world is considered as “growing” when such value in either year of 2013 and 2014 grows compared to those in any two years between 2005 and 2008 per six-digit HS code and also when such value in the five years between 2010 and 2014 grows on a year-on-year basis for three years or more.; Export value to the world; Figures are dollar-based.



Total export value


Chem

ical and plastic products


Articles of iron

or steel

Non-ferrous

metal

General

machinery

Electrical m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents

Transport equipm

ent

(Japan 2014)

(Billion dollars)




Total export value


Chem



Articles of iron

or steel

Non-ferrous

metal

General

machinery

Electrical m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents

Transport equipm

ent

(Germany 2014)

189

(Billion dollars)




Total export value


Chem



Articles of iron

or steel

Non-ferrous

metal

General

machinery

Electrical m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents

Transport equipm

ent

(United States 2014)




Total export value


Chem



Articles of iron

or steel

Non-ferrous

metal

General

machinery

Electrical m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents

Transport equipm

ent

(China 2014) (Billion dollars)

190

(Billion dollars)




Total export value


Chem



Articles of iron

or steel

Non-ferrous

metal

General

machinery

Electrical m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents

Transport equipm

ent

(ROK 2014)




Total export value


Chem



Articles of iron

or steel

Non-ferrous

metal

General

machinery

Electrical m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents

Transport equipm

ent

(United Kingdom 2014) (Billion dollars)

191

(2) Export volume and price (international comparison) The export values that we looked at in (1) reflect the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. Below ((2), (3) and (5)), we will look at export volume in order to exclude the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. At the same time, we will examine the volume-price combination trend, as the possibility of Japanese exports shifting to high-value-added products has been pointed out. Examining both the volume and price trends will make clear whether the export value growth is attributable to volume growth, price increase or both. Through such examination, we will also identify the strengths and characteristics of individual countries. The analysis methods of the volume and price trends are as described in II-1-1-3-6.

Figure II-1-1-3-6 Volume-price analysis (calculation method) <1> Export volume categorization Categorization is decided based on import volume data for 2005-2014 from the export country available from the importing country (based on export volume data available from the exporting country in the case of total exports) at the six-digit HS code level. - “Volume +” is a category of items whose volume was higher in either 2013 or 2014 than in at least

two years between 2005 and 2008 and whose volume recorded year-on-year growth in at least three years during the five-year period between 2010 and 2014.

- “Volume –” is a category of items which are not included in “volume +” and whose volume was lower in both 2013 and 2014 than in at least two years between 2005 and 2008.

- “Volume ±” is a category of items which are not included in either “volume +” or “volume –”.

(Billion dollars)




Total export value


Chem



Articles of iron

or steel

Non-ferrous

metal

General

machinery

Electrical m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents

Transport equipm

ent

(France 2014)

192

<2> Export price categorization Categorization is decided based on import price data for 2005-2014 from the export country available from the importing country (based on export price data available from the exporting country) at the six-digit HS code level. - “Price++” and “price+” are categories of items whose price was higher in either 2013 or 2014

than in at least two years between 2005 and 2008 (whose price increased at a rate higher than the overall import price growth rate (or the consumer price growth rate) in the importing country in the case of “price ++”) and whose price recorded year-on-year growth in at least three years between 2010 and 2014 (whose price recorded a higher growth rate than the import price growth rate (or the consumer growth rate) in the importing country in the case of “price ++”).

(“Volume +” does not include “volume ++”. The “volume ++” category is not used in relation to export to the world.)

- “Price –” is a category of items which are not included in either “price +” or “price ++” and whose

price was lower in both 2013 and 2014 than in at least two years between 2005 and 2008. - “Price ±” is a category of items which are not included in any of “price ++”, “price +” and “price

–”. <3> Export volume-export price categorization Items are grouped into 12 categories (nine categories in relation to export to the world), namely the three export volume categories multiplied by the four export price categories. <4> Calculation of the export growth rate In order to even out yearly fluctuations, the export growth rate used here represents the growth rate (a) of the total export value in 2011-2014 (b) compared with the total export value in 2005-2008 (c) ((a)=((b)-(c))÷(c)). <5> Item shares and export values do not include those of items whose volumes and prices have not been published. <6> On a dollar basis. Data from the Global Trade Atlas was used.

Figure II-1-1-3-7 (Reference) Guide to the volume-price combination analysis table

<1> The four left columns (item share) of each volume category The share of each volume-price category concerning a relevant export item (on a 2014 export

Item share Export growth rate Item share Export

growth rate Item share Export growth rate

Volume+ Volume+ Volume± Volume± Volume – Volume –

Each volume category was subdivided into four price categories

Price++ Price+ Price± Price –

193

value basis). The higher the share, the darker the green color. Example: The share of items (six-digit HS code items) in the “volume +/price – category” of the

chemicals and plastics sector in the export value in 2014 was 28.4%. <2> The four right columns (export value growth rate) of each volume category The growth rate of each export item by volume-price category (total value in 2011-2014 － total value in 2005-2008) ÷ total value in 2005-2008. Dark orange indicates that the export growth rate was higher than 100%, while pale orange indicates that the growth rate was between 0 and 100%. Pale blue indicates a decline between 0 and 100% and the dark blue indicates a decline higher than 100%. Example: The export growth rate of items (six-digit HS code items) in the “volume+/price-” category

of the chemicals and plastics sector (others) was minus 25.3%.

First, in relation to the export value to the world, we will compare the volume and price trends for individual countries. As shown in Table II-1-1-3-8, in the case of Japan, the shares of items with growing export volume and items with rising export price are the lowest among the major countries compared at this time. As for the volume-price combination trend, China has the largest share of items with both growing volume and rising price (growing volume/rising price category = volume+/ price+), followed by the Republic of Korea and Germany in that order. We will also look at the share of items with declining volume and rising price (declining volume/rising price category = volume-/unit price+) because a price rise may increase export value despite a volume decline. The share of the declining volume/rising price category in Japan, at 33%, is the largest among the countries compared, but the export value of this category for Japan is declining. The share of this category is relatively large and the export value is growing in the United Kingdom (share: 31%; growth rate: 4%) and the United States (share: 21%; growth rate: 22%).

Volume+ Volume+ Volume+ Volume+ Volume+ Volume+ Volume+ Volume+

Price++ Price+ Price± Price – Price++ Price+ Price± Price –

Chemicals and plastics (others) 1.7% 17.6% 11.7% 28.4% 372.9% 96.4% 54.0% -25.3%

Inorganic chemicals 3.1% 10.3% 11.5% 12.5% 284.4% 171.0% 74.5% 86.0%

Organic chemicals 1.3% 2.9% 4.1% 17.5% 56.0% 28.0% 99.9% -32.8%

Item share (2014) Export growth rate (2011-2014/2005-2008) “Volume+” × four

price categories

194

Table II-1-1-3-8 Trends in volume and price (major countries' exports to the world) Exports of major countries to the

world (2014) Japan Germany United States

United Kingdom France ROK China

Share of items with growing export volume (2014) 38.9% 58.8% 48.1% 43.5% 51.2% 64.5% 72.8%

Share of items with rising export price (2014) 50.9% 56.6% 56.3% 63.5% 53.3% 55.0% 62.4%

Share of items (2014)

Volume + Price + 12.2% 34.1% 27.8% 26.5% 26.1% 36.0% 47.3% Volume + Price +/- 11.9% 12.2% 8.3% 8.8% 9.7% 20.7% 12.5% Volume + Price - 14.9% 12.4% 12.0% 8.3% 15.3% 7.7% 13.0%

Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Volume + Price + 65% 48% 50% 105% 53% 135% 147% Volume + Price +/- 63% 53% 64% 65% 51% 95% 175%

Volume + Price - 18% 24% -4% 5% 13% 118% 143%


Volume +/- Price + 5.4% 9.0% 7.7% 6.5% 3.9% 7.0% 4.1% Volume +/- Price +/- 5.7% 8.7% 12.8% 9.1% 7.0% 6.0% 9.5% Volume +/- Price - 1.5% 1.6% 3.6% 2.6% 1.3% 7.7% 0.9%

Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005 -2008)

Volume +/- Price + 82% 48% 63% 63% 57% 74% 129% Volume +/- Price +/- 91% 271% 636% 810% 534% 128% 1422%

Volume +/- Price - -43% 41% 30% -4% 12% 99% 72%


Volume - Price + 33.3% 13.6% 20.8% 30.5% 23.2% 11.9% 11.0% Volume - Price +/- 12.1% 5.7% 4.5% 6.3% 9.7% 2.1% 1.0% Volume - Price - 3.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.5% 3.7% 0.9% 0.7%

Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005 -2008)

Volume - Price + -3% -9% 22% 4% -10% 2% 24% Volume - Price +/- -2% -4% 1% -8% -7% 17% -29%

Volume - Price - -58% -70% -61% -54% -57% -82% -82%

Next, we will conduct comparison concerning individual markets. The share of items with growing volume for Japan is low, around 30%, in the Chinese market (Table II-1-1-3-9) and the EU market (Table II-1-1-3-11) but is somewhat higher at just over 40% in the U.S. market (Table II-1-1-3-10). The share of items with rising price for Japan is high at just over 60% in the U.S. market, higher than the shares for Germany and the United Kingdom. As for the volume-price combination trend, the shares of items with growing volume and rising price (growing volume/rising price caegory) and items with growing volume and steeply rising price (growing volume/suring price category = volume+/unit price++) for Japan are significantly lower in the Chinese and EU markets than the shares for other countries. Conversely, the shares of items with declining volume and rising price (declining volume/rising price category = volume-/unit price+) and items with declining volume and steeply rising price (declining volume/surging price category = volume-/unit price++) are high, while export values of both categories are decreasing except in the Chinese market. In the case of Germany, the share of items with growing volume and rising price (growing volume and rising price category = volume+/unit price+) is large concerning exports to China and the United States. The share of items with declining volume for Germany (declining volume category = volume-)

195

is smaller than the shares for all other countries concerning exports to China and the United States. In the U.S. market in particular, the shares of items with growing volume and rising price (growing volume/rising price category = volume+/unit price+) and items with growing volume and steeply rising price (growing volume/surging price category = volume+/unit price++) for Germay are larger than the shares for all other countries. These findings suggest that many German companies have succeeded in increasing sales without resorting to price competition. On the other hand, the share of items with growing volume and falling price (growing volume/falling price category = volume+/unit price-) for Germany is also large compared with the shares for other countries, indicating that German companies are also perfoming well when reducing prices.

Table II-1-1-3-9 Trends in volume and price (major countries' exports to China) Exports of major countries to China (2014)

Japan Germany United States

United Kingdom ROK

Share of items with growing export volume (2014) 31.8% 51.7% 39.2% 53.9% 43.9% Share of items with rising export price (2014) 52.9% 53.9% 51.4% 70.0% 65.9%


Volume + Price ++ 2.3% 4.6% 3.7% 8.0% 7.0% Volume + Price + 12.2% 34.4% 23.7% 38.8% 30.8% Volume + Price +/- 6.8% 12.7% 11.8% 7.1% 6.1% Volume + Price - 10.5% 24.6% 9.9% 7.7% 4.2%


Volume + Price ++ 226% 312% 542% 224% 340% Volume + Price + 146% 273% 188% 756% 198% Volume + Price +/- 131% 229% 150% 134% 203% Volume + Price - 80% 141% 119% 93% 139%


Volume +/- Price ++ 1.9% 1.4% 3.0% 11.8% 1.2% Volume +/- Price + 9.5% 7.2% 7.6% 2.9% 13.8% Volume +/- Price +/- 8.4% 2.6% 22.3% 4.9% 4.6% Volume +/- Price - 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 6.1% 15.0%

Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005- 2008)

Volume +/- Price ++ 691% 343% 331% 386% 233% Volume +/- Price + 198% 124% 167% 197% 176% Volume +/- Price +/- 214% 202% 1979% 329% 351% Volume +/- Price - 28% 48% 94% 60% 87%


Volume - Price ++ 9.3% 2.2% 6.0% 5.3% 4.6% Volume - Price + 17.8% 4.1% 7.4% 3.2% 8.4% Volume - Price +/- 14.0% 3.0% 1.7% 3.4% 3.6% Volume - Price - 5.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%


Volume - Price ++ 20% 12% 65% 21% 15% Volume - Price + 24% 19% 29% 21% 30% Volume - Price +/- 28% 0% -8% 11% 18% Volume - Price - -46% -70% -41% -69% -82%

196

Table II-1-1-3-10 Trends in volume and price (major countries' exports to the United States) Exports of major countries to the United States (2014)

Japan Germany United Kingdom ROK

Share of items with growing export volume (2014) 42.9% 76.5% 25.3% 44.2% Share of items with rising export price (2014) 62.7% 59.6% 52.5% 68.2%


Volume + Price ++ 1.3% 3.8% 0.8% 1.7% Volume + Price + 29.3% 40.7% 6.1% 23.4% Volume + Price +/- 12.3% 15.6% 10.2% 13.6% Volume + Price - 10.1% 16.4% 8.2% 5.5%


Volume + Price ++ 178% 61% 190% 281% Volume + Price + 36% 38% 68% 81% Volume + Price +/- 38% 63% 52% 97% Volume + Price - 6% 35% -28% 86%


Volume +/- Price ++ 1.4% 0.6% 3.2% 2.1% Volume +/- Price + 2.9% 3.1% 13.4% 3.8% Volume +/- Price +/- 4.3% 2.4% 16.2% 6.3% Volume +/- Price - 1.4% 0.8% 2.5% 1.8%


Volume +/- Price ++ 146% 113% 610% 470% Volume +/- Price + 109% 57% 48% 159% Volume +/- Price +/- 318% 214% 2195% 275% Volume +/- Price - 11% 33% -30% 66%


Volume - Price ++ 4.0% 5.3% 15.0% 5.6% Volume - Price + 23.7% 6.0% 14.0% 31.6% Volume - Price +/- 7.9% 4.3% 7.2% 3.6% Volume - Price - 1.3% 0.9% 3.0% 1.0%


Volume - Price ++ 3% 12.5% 2% -17% Volume - Price + -29% -27% -19% 53% Volume - Price +/- -21% -20% 9% -10% Volume - Price - -81% -73% -44% -84%

Table II-1-1-3-11 Trends in volume and price (major countries' exports to EU)

Exports of major countries to EU (2014)

Japan United States ROK

Share of items with growing export volume (2014) 32.7% 53.8% 46.3% Share of items with rising export price (2014) 43.8% 46.8% 56.3%


Volume + Price ++ 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% Volume + Price + 10.3% 18.6% 23.4% Volume + Price +/- 11.7% 25.8% 8.8% Volume + Price - 9.9% 8.8% 12.1%


Volume + Price ++ 164% 124% 308% Volume + Price + 48% 108% 46% Volume + Price +/- 46% 58% 132% Volume + Price - 23% 23% 116%

Share of items (2014) Volume +/- Price ++ 0.8% 0.3% 1.1%

197

Volume +/- Price + 1.7% 7.2% 8.0% Volume +/- Price +/- 4.8% 3.5% 12.9% Volume +/- Price - 1.9% 1.2% 2.5%


Volume +/- Price ++ 266% 60% 252% Volume +/- Price + 51% 41% 119% Volume +/- Price +/- 141% 623% 2010% Volume +/- Price - -17% -15% 111%


Volume - Price ++ 5.5% 4.3% 2.8% Volume - Price + 24.7% 15.7% 19.0% Volume - Price +/- 22.5% 10.6% 5.1% Volume - Price - 5.4% 3.4% 2.3%

Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 2005-2008)

Volume - Price ++ -25% 1% -49% Volume - Price + -32% -7% -44% Volume - Price +/- -27% -12% 10% Volume - Price - -71% -65% -91%

(3) Export volume and price trends for Japan (by major sector and major export product) Above, we found that the share of items with increasing export volume for Japan is small compared with the shares for other countries and that the export values of many items with rising price are not growing increasing for Japan when export volume is declining. By sector, what trends can be observed? Below, we will look at Japanese manufacturing industries’ competitiveness in export through volume and price analysis concerning major export industries and export product items. First, we will look at the eight major sectors72. Sectors in which the share of items with growing volume is large (50% or more) are iron and steel products, textiles and textile articles, chemicals and plastics and precision machinery. In these sectors, the rate of export value growth of items with growing volume is also high (Figure II-1-1-3-12).

72 As for the specifics of the “eight major sectors” and the customs tariff numbers of items examined here, see Figure II-1-1-3-67. Iron and steel products and nonferrous metals do not include “scraps.” Major parts for transportation equipment are included in “transportation equipment” but not in “general machinery,” etc.

198

Figure II-1-1-3-12 Share and growth of items with growing export volume (Japan's exports to the world: major eight sectors)

Next, in the transportation equipment, precision machinery, textiles/clothing and chemicals and plastics sectors, which are among sectors with a large share of items with rising price (50% or more), the rate of export value growth of such items is also high (Figure II-1-1-3-13). Although the share of items with rising price is large in the general machinery sector, the rate of export value growth is low. Meanwhile, the export value of items with rising price is declining in the electrical machinery sector.

<Japan’s exports to the world (major eight sectors)>

Share of items


Growth rate of export value (right scale)


Chem



Electric instruments

General m

achinery

Non-ferrous m

etal


Notes: Figures show the share of items with growing export volume, based on the criteria defined separately; Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with growing export volume (sum of value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of value between 2005 and 2008) / (sum of value between 2005 and 2008); Figures are dollar-based.


199

Figure II-1-1-3-13 Share and growth of items with rising prices (Japan's exports to the world: major eight sectors)

As for the volume-price combination trend, sectors in which the share of items with growing volume and rising price (growing volume and rising price category = volume+/unit price+) is large compared with the shares for other sectors are chemicals and plastics, textiles/clothing and precision machinery (Table II-1-1-3-14). Major sectors in which the share of items with declining volume and rising price (declining volume/rising price category = volume-/unit price+) is large compared with the shares for other sectors are general machinery, precision machinery and transportation equipment. In the general machinery sector, the export value of the declining volume/rising price category is decreasing.

<Japan’s exports to the world (major eight sectors)>

Share of items




General m

achinery


Chem



Non-ferrous m

etal


Notes: Figures show the share of items with growing export volume, based on the criteria defined separately; Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with growing export volume (sum of value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of value between 2005 and 2008) / (sum of value between 2005 and 2008); Figures are dollar-based.


200

Table II-1-1-3-14 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to the world: major eight sectors)

Japan’s exports to the world

(major eight

sectors)

Chem



Articles of iron

or steel

Non-ferrous

metal

General

machinery

Electric instrum

ents

Precision instrum

ents

Transportation equipm

ent

Share of items with growing export volume (2014) 50.3% 50.7% 51.2% 28.2% 29.1% 39.5% 49.9% 21.8%

Share of items with rising export price (2014) 54.1% 54.2% 20.0% 21.7% 54.2% 42.8% 66.7% 66.5%


Volume + Price + 20.0% 22.8% 8.9% 3.1% 7.4% 7.8% 22.2% 12.8% Volume + Price +/- 20.9% 19.1% 36.0% 9.5% 10.0% 9.4% 16.5% 5.5% Volume + Price - 9.5% 8.8% 6.3% 15.5% 11.7% 22.3% 11.2% 3.5%

Growth rate of export value (2011-2014/ 2005-2008)

Volume + Price + 73% 87% 60% 54% 47% 35% 44% 71% Volume + Price +/- 66% 42% 67% 36% 63% 39% 53% 76%

Volume + Price - -10% 28% 31% 30% 16% 31% 6% 26%


Volume +/- Price + 7.9% 2.9% 2.7% 1.3% 1.4% 8.9% 6.2% 1.6% Volume +/- Price +/- 4.2% 2.4% 6.0% 30.2% 7.4% 3.4% 0.4% 3.3% Volume +/- Price - 3.1% 0.2% 7.3% 3.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%


Volume +/- Price + 78% 132% 147% 100% 27% 141% 45% 85% Volume +/- Price +/- 88% 67% 53% 76% 104% 1225% 189% 28%

Volume +/- Price - 42% 10% 18% 40% 67% -87% -65% -87%


Volume - Price + 26.3% 28.6% 8.5% 17.3% 45.4% 26.1% 38.3% 52.1% Volume - Price +/- 7.5% 13.1% 17.3% 15.4% 14.2% 14.8% 3.4% 16.5% Volume - Price - 0.8% 2.3% 7.1% 4.4% 0.9% 5.9% 1.4% 4.7%


Volume - Price + 5% -2% -10% -11% -2% -26% 34% 0% Volume - Price +/- -2% -6% -6% -11% 16% -23% -8% 5% Volume - Price - -55% -57% -18% -17% -78% -67% -73% -49%

(A) materials sector We will take a look at the status of major export product groups in the materials sector. Products groups in which the share of items with growing volume is large (50% or more) and the rate of export value growth is high (50% or higher) are cosmetics, glass, rubber/rubber products (excluding new tires), organic chemicals, iron and steel products and man-made filaments (Figure II-1-1-3-15).

201

Figure II-1-1-3-15 Share and growth of items with growing export volume (Japan's exports to the world: materials sector)

In the rising price category, export value growth is generally low, with the rate of growth at 50% or higher only for rubber/rubber products, tires (new tires) and cosmetics (Figure II-1-1-3-16).

<Japan’s exports to the world (material sector)>

Share of items

Cosm

etics


Medicines

Chem

ical and plastic products (others)

Glass

Nickel

Alum

inum

Rubber and rubber products

excluding new tires

Textiles and clothing, excluding m

an-made fibers

Organic m

onomers

Iron and steel Inorganic chem

icals A

rticles of iron or steel M

an-made fibers

Paints

Tools and cutlery of base m

etal

Organic polym

ers Tires (new

)

Non-ferrous m

etal (others) Plastic film

s, etc.

Photographic materials

Products related to paints and coloring m

atter, excluding paints

Copper

Notes: 1. Figures show the share of items with growing volume, based on the criteria defined separately

(only items with the share of 10% or less); Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with growing export volume (sum of value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of value between 2005 and 2008) / (sum of value between 2005 and 2008); Figures are dollar-based.

2. Articles of iron or steel and non-ferrous metal exclude scraps. Source: Global Trade Atlas.

202

Figure II-1-1-3-16 Share and growth of items with rising prices (Japan's exports to the world: materials sector)

Product groups in which the share of the growing volume/rising price category is relatively large (20% or more) are rubber/rubber products, man-made filaments, tires (new tires) and organic chemicals (Figure II-1-1-3-17).


Share of items

Organic polym

ers



Tires (new)

Man-m

ade fibers N

on-ferrous metal (others)

Organic m

onomers



Paints

Inorganic chemicals


Nickel

Plastic films, etc.


etal

Glass

Medicines

Copper





excluding new tires

Chem



an-made fibers

Alum

inum

Cosm

etics

203

Figure II-1-1-3-17 Share and growth of items with growing export volume and rising price (Japan's exports to the world: materials sector)

Meanwhile, the status of major export product groups in which the share of items in the declining volume/rising price category is 10% or larger are as shown in Figure II-1-1-3-18 below. In paints and other product groups, the export value of items with declining volume and rising price is growing.


Share of items





Organic polym

ers

Tires (new)

Man-m

ade fibers

Organic m

onomers

Inorganic chem

icals



excluding new tires

Chem


Cosm

etics

204

Figure II-1-1-3-18 Share and growth of items with declining export volume and rising prices (Japan's exports to the world: materials sector)

Table II-1-1-3-19 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to the world: materials sector)


Share of items w

ith growing

export volume (2014)

Share of items w

ith rising export price (2014)



value (2011-2014 / 2005- 2008)



value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)



value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(material sector)

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Chemical and plastic products (others)

72.4%

44.7%

19.8%

35.5%

17.0%

62%

53%

-22% 5.6

% 0.4%

0.5%

57%

107%

16% 19.

2% 1.8%

0.0%

22%

-15%

-94%

Inorganic chemicals

51.1%

42.7%

16.5%

2.7%

31.9%

85%

81% 3% 1.4

% 1.8%

0.7%

33%

80%

-33% 24.

8% 18.9%

1.2%

12% 0% -77

% Organic monomers

52.3%

53.4%

21.4%

25.2%

5.7%

72%

88%

-21% 12.

3% 4.9%

1.6%

119%

124%

-34% 19.

7% 6.9%

2.4% -7% -17

% -48%

Organic polymers

38.8%

87.2%

30.5%

6.6%

1.7%

44%

36%

13% 7.1

% 0.4%

3.6%

53%

30%

159% 49.

6% 0.6%

0.0% 0% -38

%


Share of items Growth rate of export value (right scale)




Paints

Chem





Tires (new)

Inorganic chemicals

Non-ferrous m

etal (others)

Copper


an-made fibers

Organic polym

ers


Man-m

ade fibers


Organic m

onomers

Nickel

Glass

Alum

inum

205

Plastic films, etc.

31.1%

34.0%

4.8%

21.8%

4.5%

77%

48%

36% 19.

6% 23.8%

13.9%

66%

74%

134% 9.7

% 1.0%

1.0% -8% -44

% -36%

Products related to paints and coloring matter, excluding paints

23.2%

56.7%

0.6%

19.7%

2.9%

68%

65% 2% 1.0

% 0.0%

0.0%

77% 55.

1% 20.6%

0.1%

21%

33%

-67%

Paints 45.5%

52.5%

0.0%

45.5%

0.0%

59% 0.0

% 0.0%

0.0% 52.

5% 2.0%

0.0%

37% 1%


22.8%

83.6%

6.6%

2.2%

14.0%

80%

73%

-12% 0.0

% 0.1%

0.0% -1% 77.

0% 0.1%

0.0% 0% -83

% -96%


54.8%

48.4%

36.1%

18.2%

0.5%

94%

64%

128% 3.0

% 1.4%

0.0%

45%

179%

-18% 9.3

% 31.3%

0.2%

29%

18%

-43%

Tires (new) 32.4%

75.3%

32.4%

0.0%

0.0%

148% 0.1

% 0.0%

0.0%

25% 42.

8% 24.6%

0.1%

13% 0% -49

%

Medicines 73.3%

12.6%

4.7%

20.6%

48.0%

90%

135%

11% 6.1

% 1.1%

17.8%

103%

28486%

-4% 1.8%

0.0%

0.0%

-29%

-89%

Cosmetics 95.5%

18.0%

18.0%

77.5%

0.0%

64%

86% 0.0

% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0

% 4.5%

0.0% 6%

Textiles and clothing, excluding man-made fibers

53.0%

38.2%

9.6%

27.1%

16.3%

68%

40%

24% 0.7

% 1.4%

0.0%

100%

164%

-74% 27.

8% 12.6%

4.4% 2% -6% -33

%

Man-made fibers

48.8%

67.3%

33.4%

12.6%

2.7%

92%

45%

52% 4.7

% 3.2%

0.2%

137%

50%

67% 29.

1% 13.4%

0.5% -5% -7% -87

%

Iron and steel

52.0%

7.7%

4.6%

42.2%

5.1%

93%

69%

27% 0.1

% 8.1%

10.2%

326%

51%

17% 3.0

% 16.7%

9.9%

-17% -5% -13

% Articles of iron or steel

49.3%

48.6%

18.7%

21.6%

8.9%

48%

62%

38% 8.7

% 1.3%

0.5%

139%

91%

50% 21.

2% 18.5%

0.5% -6% -8% -63

% Non-ferrous metal (others)

31.2%

59.9%

7.1%

9.0%

15.0%

40%

78%

45% 6.5

% 0.0%

2.8%

100%

-100% -9% 46.

3% 0.0%

13.2% 9% -20

5% -18%

Copper 14.7%

16.1%

0.9%

12.4%

1.4%

61%

33%

18% 0.0

% 48.6%

3.8%

76%

84% 15.

2% 17.7%

0.0% 9% -12

% -88%

Aluminum 55.7%

22.9%

4.9%

4.5%

46.2%

100%

43%

22% 0.0

% 0.1%

0.2%

66% 17.

9% 16.7%

9.3%

-32% -4% -14

%

Nickel 60.3%

35.0%

2.9%

11.8%

45.7%

40%

66%

46% 0.0

% 0.0%

4.9%

33% 32.

2% 2.6%

0.0%

-19% 0%


39.8%

27.4%

9.4%

21.7%

8.7%

36%

62%

145% 0.3

% 31.3%

0.0%

35%

14%

-74% 17.

7% 11.0%

0.0%

17%

11%

-55%

Glass 70.

0% 24.6%

3.7%

24.3%

41.9%

64%

34%

127% 1.1

% 0.0%

1.6%

1253%

941%

-19% 19.

8% 4.3%

3.2%

-24%

-24%

-43%

206

(B) Machinery sector Major export product groups in the machinery sector in which the share of items with growing volume is large (50% or more) and the rate of export value growth is high (50% or higher) are aircraft parts, machine tools, motor vehicle parts, cocks/valves and cocks/valves (Figure II-1-1-3-20). Figure II-1-1-3-20 Share and growth of items with growing export volume (Japan's exports to

the world: machinery sector)

Regarding the rising price category, the export value growth of items in this category is generally low. However, the growth of items in this category is high (50% or higher) for railway vehicle parts and integrated circuits (Figure II-1-1-3-21).

<Japan’s exports to the world (machinery sector)>


Buses

Electronic machinery for

internal-combustion engines

Aircraft parts

Switches, etc.(or sw

itching of electrical circuits)

Testing and measuring instrum

ents (electronic, electric and industrial)

Condensers

Railw

ay parts

Machine tool

Semiconductor devices

Motor vehicle parts

Cocks and valves

Precision instruments (others)

Integrated circuits

Ball bearings

General m

achinery (others)

Bicycle parts

Medical equipm

ent

Bulldozers

Electric machinery

(others)

Semiconductor-m

anufacturing apparatus

Notes: Figures show the share of items with growing volume, based on the criteria defined separately (only items with the share of 10% or less) Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with growing export volume (sum of value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of value between 2005 and 2008) / (sum of value between 2005 and 2008) Figures are dollar-based.

Notes 2: Growth rate of the semiconductor manufacturing is not shown because the data are available from 2007.


207

Figure II-1-1-3-21 Share and growth of items with rising price (Japan's exports to the world: machinery sector)

The share of items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+) is large (20% or larger) for buses, buses, switches, etc. (for switching of electrical circuits, etc.), railway vehicle parts, cocks/valves and motor vehicle parts, etc. (Figure II-1-1-3-22).


Buses

Notes: Figures show the share of items with rising price, based on the criteria defined separately (only items with the share of 10% or less) Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with rising price (sum of value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of value between 2005 and 2008) /(sum of value between 2005 and 2008) Figures are dollar-based.



Tractors

Transmission apparatus for radio-

broadcasting or television, etc.

Cocks and valves

Passenger cars B

ulldozers B

icycle parts C

argo motor cars

Gearboxes


General m

achinery (others) Sw

itches, etc.(or switching of

electrical circuits)

Motor vehicle parts

Railw

ay parts

Electric instruments (others)



Condensers

Integrated circuits




Machine tool

Medical equipm

ent

208

Figure II-1-1-3-22 Share and growth of items with growing export volume and rising price (Japan's exports to the world: machinery sector)

On the other hand, among product groups that include many items with growing export value in the declining volume/rising price category (volume-/unit price+) is precision machinery (Figure II-1-1-3-23).

Share of items Growth rate of export value (right scale) Notes: Figures show the share of items with rising price and growing volume, based on the criteria

defined separately (only items with the share of 10% or less) Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with rising price and growing volume (sum of export value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of export value between 2005 and 2008) / (sum of export value between 2005 and 2008) Figures are dollar-based.



General m

achinery (others)

Medical equipm

ent


Buses



Railw

ay parts

Cocks and valves

Motor vehicle parts

Testing and measuring

instruments (electronic,

electric and industrial)

Bicycle parts



209

Figure II-1-1-3-23 Share and growth of items with declining export volume and rising price (Japan's exports to the world: machinery sector)

Table II-1-1-3-24 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to the world: machinery sector)


Share of items w

ith growing export

volume (2014)

Share of items w




(2011-2014 /

2005-2008)

Share of

items (2014)


(2011-2014 /

2005-2008)

Share of

items (2014)


(2011-2014 / 2005/ 2008)

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e + V

olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/- V

olume +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e - V

olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(Machinery)

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price +

Price +/-

Price -

General machinery (others)

32.4%

58.8%

10.1%

9.0%

13.3%

40%

45%

-2%

2.4%

0.3%

3.1%

24%

59%

75%

46.2%

14.2%

1.3%

-21% 6% -76

% Machine tool 65.9

% 10.6%

3.7%

3.6%

58.6%

73%

53%

73%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-95%

6.9%

26.1%

1.0%

13% 1% -83

% Bulldozers 14.6

% 85.2%

0.0%

14.6%

0.0% 0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

85.2%

0.0%

0.1% 4%

-84%

Ball bearings 38.0%

0.0%

0.0%

32.9%

5.1%

63%

46%

0.0%

18.2%

0.0%

68%

0.0%

43.8%

0.0%

37%

Gearboxes 0.0% 77.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

7.1%

0.0%

35%

77.9%

15.1%

0.0%

35%

57%



Notes: Figures show the share of items with declining volume and rising price, based on the criteria defined separately (only items with the share of 10% or less) Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with rising price and declining volume (sum of value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of value between 2005 and 2008) / (sum of value between 2005 and 2008) Figures are dollar-based.



Bicycle parts

Gearboxes

Cocks and valves

Medical equipm

ent

Cargo m

otor cars

Testing and measuring

instruments (electronic,

electric and industrial)

Bulldozers

Passenger cars


Tractors

General m

achinery (others)


(others)

Condensers

Transmission apparatus for

radio-broadcasting or television, etc.

210


24.4%

5.1%

0.0%

24.4%

0.0% - - -

0.0%

56.0%

0.0% - - -

5.1%

14.5%

0.0% - - -

Cocks and valves 51.3%

96.1%

50.0%

0.0%

1.3%

65%

101%

3.5%

0.0%

0.0%

70%

42.6%

2.6%

0.0%

32%

33%


22.9%

46.6%

5.4%

7.5%

10.0%

34%

45%

29%

1.9%

7.1%

2.8%

83%

1225%

113%

39.3%

24.3%

1.6%

-23% 7% -84

%

Condensers 68.6%

36.0%

6.4%

0.0%

62.2%

67%

26%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

29.6%

0.0%

1.7%

-25%

-36%

Integrated circuits 39.0%

32.7%

0.0%

0.0%

39.0%

70%

32.7%

0.0%

0.0%

149%

-100%

0.0%

7.6%

20.7%

-27%

-9%

Semiconductor devices 65.8%

18.2%

0.3%

9.8%

55.7%

80%

85%

-5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

18.0%

16.2%

0.0%

-1%

-8%

Transmission apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc.

0.0% 99.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

99.9%

0.1%

0.0%

-38%

-100%

-100%


94.4%

60.1%

55.4%

32.0%

7.0%

28%

26%

42%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

4.7%

0.9%

0.0% 7% -27

% Electronic machinery for internal-combustion engines

99.8%

25.5%

25.5%

74.4%

0.0%

67%

32%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.2%

-58%


43.1%

74.2%

21.3%

16.2%

5.5%

36%

57%

38%

1.0%

0.7%

0.6%

41%

190%

-64%

51.9%

2.2%

0.5%

40%

-8%

-91%


79.7%

50.6%

31.1%

23.6%

25.1%

57%

53%

-5%

4.2%

0.0%

0.0%

64%

-100%

15.3%

0.7%

0.1%

11% 8% -32

%

Medical equipment 23.5%

67.3%

10.4%

5.6%

7.5%

54%

31%

24%

28.2%

0.0%

0.0%

42%

65%

28.7%

12.5%

7.0%

23%

-9%

-18%

Passenger cars 0.0% 87.

4% 0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

87.4%

6.6%

6.0% 1% -19

% -52%

Cargo motor cars 5.4% 82.2%

0.0%

0.2%

5.3%

-24%

62%

12.0%

0.0%

0.0%

34%

70.2%

12.4%

0.0%

13%

12%

Buses 100.0%

68.3%

68.3%

31.7%

0.0%

40%

28%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tractors 0.0% 99.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

99.9%

0.0%

0.1%

-3%

115%

Motor vehicle parts 58.1%

52.5%

44.0%

7.7%

6.4%

75%

69% 5%

3.1%

11.3%

0.0%

151%

16%

-100%

5.4%

20.9%

1.2%

27%

-5%

-47%

Bicycle parts 28.3%

84.6%

28.3%

0.0%

0.0%

48%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

56.3%

15.4%

0.0%

36%

30%

Aircraft parts 98.8%

1.2%

0.0%

66.5%

32.3%

106%

66%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-82%

1.2%

0.0%

0.0%

-44%

-69%

-83%

Railway parts 66.2%

52.3%

52.3%

3.8%

10.1%

166%

60%

519%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

33.1%

0.7% 2% -59

% Marine vessels 0.2% 2.7

% 0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

-20%

33%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

2.7%

80.0%

17.1%

-13%

62%

-36%

(C) Other products73 Next, we will look at product subgroups of particular interest included in the above-mentioned major export product groups in the materials and machinery sectors and in smaller groups. For 73 Here, in addition to major export products, products whose export volume is not large but Japanese exports which are relatively brisk or are expected to increase, or concerning which Japan has a large export share, are analyzed as items in the “other products” category (some of these products are included among major export products). Regarding products in the “other products” category, it should be noted that the share by volume and price trend category may be extremely high or low, such as 100% or 0%, because many of them include only a small number of six-digit HS code items.

211

example, some subgroups include items for which not only volume and price are increasing but also export value is growing. Among such products are polarizing material sheets, which are used in smart phones, etc., petroleum resin and acrylic polymers regarding which Japanese companies have a large global share, blades, whose quality depend on artisans’ high level of skills, and ball-point pens and other stationery goods, which have a high reputation for their meticulous specifications and easiness to use (Figure II-1-1-3-25).

Figure II-1-1-3-25 Share and growth of items with growing export volume and rising prices (Japan's exports to the world: other items)

On the other hand, other product groups include items for which volume is declining but export value is growing due to rising price, such as liquid crystal devices (Figure II-1-1-3-26).

Share of items


Notes: Figures show the share of items with rising price and growing volume, based on the criteria defined separately (only items with the share of 10% or less); Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with rising price and growing volume (sum of value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of value between 2005 and 2008) / (sum of value between 2005 and 2008); Figures are dollar-based.


<Japan’s exports to the world (other items)>

Saws

Stationery (ball-point pens, pencils, crayons, etc.)

Processing machines (griding

machines, etc.)

Electric furnaces for industrial and physical and chem

ical use


Acrylic polym

ers



212

Figure II-1-1-3-26 Share and growth of items with declining export volume and rising prices (Japan's exports to the world: other items)

Table II-1-1-3-27 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to the world: other items)


Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Share of items

(2014)


value (2011-2014 / 2005- 2008)

Share of

items (2014)


value (2011-2014/ 2005 -2008)

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e +/-

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Other items

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Iodine 0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

51%

Acrylic polymers

86.7%

100.0%

86.7%

0.0%

0.0%

44%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

13.3%

0.0%

0.0%

16%


100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

29%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Polyethylene terephthalate

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

134%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

32%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

-30%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Notes: Figures show the share of items with declining volume and rising price, based on the criteria defined separately (only items with growing export value and the share of 10% or less in the same category); Growth rates of export value = growth rates of items with rising price and declining volume (sum of value between 2011 and 2014 - sum of value between 2005 and 2008) / (sum of value between 2005 and 2008); Figures are dollar-based.



<Japan’s exports to the world (other items)>

Saws

Liquid crystal devices

Iodine

Processing machines

(griding machines, etc.)

Carbon fibers

X-ray apparatus for

diagnostic use

Medical sam

ple testing instrum

ents

Optical m

icroscopes

Acrylic polym

ers

Stationery (ball-point pens, pencils, crayons, etc.

Ink

Rolled photographic

film

Pruning shears

Injection-molding

machines for rubber

and plastic

213

Carbon fibers 11.5%

100.0%

11.5%

0.0%

0.0% -1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-28%

88.5%

0.0%

0.0%

36%

-18%


67.2%

0.2%

0.1%

63.1%

4.0%

38%

70% 3%

0.0%

12.8%

0.0%

64%

0.0%

0.1%

19.9%

-76%

-16% 2%


57.2%

0.0%

0.0%

43.0%

14.2%

115%

89%

0.0%

0.0%

27.6%

35%

0.0%

15.2%

0.0%

-1%

-100%


24.9%

61.2%

0.0%

2.8%

22.1%

29%

30%

26.7%

0.0%

0.0%

146%

34.5%

13.5%

0.4%

-14%

-20%

-64%

Refined copper 0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

93.7%

0.0%

76%

0.4%

5.8%

0.0%

-15% 6% -10

0% Nickel alloy pipes and pipe joints

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-22%


0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 4%

Industrial robots 100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

71%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


81.9%

15.2%

0.0%

0.4%

81.5%

19%

23%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-100%

15.2%

2.8%

0.0%

-32%

41%

-100%

Processing machines (griding machines, etc.)

43.7%

81.2%

36.5%

0.0%

7.1%

81%

20%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

44.6%

11.7%

0.0%

48% 3%


99.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

98.9%

49%

88%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.9%

-28%


48.2%

63.0%

48.2%

0.0%

0.0%

82%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

14.8%

37.0%

0.0%

-19%

25%

Optical fibers 60.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

60.5%

25%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

39.5%

0.0%

-21%

Liquid crystal devices

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

145%

Devices for measuring semiconductors and ICs

100.0%

61.9%

61.9%

0.0%

38.1% 0%

-45%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

-18%


0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

26%


0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

-10%


0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

33%

Endoscopes 0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

23%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Artificial joints 100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

134%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

214

Optical microscopes

0.0%

99.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

99.1%

0.9%

0.0%

24%

96%

Pruning shears 0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

77.6%

0.0%

0.0%

35%

22.4%

0.0%

0.0% 7%

Saws 57.9%

51.3%

13.5%

23.4%

21.1%

72%

10%

109%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

37.8%

4.3%

0.0%

13%

14%


92.2%

72.1%

72.1%

20.1%

0.0%

33%

37%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

7.8%

0.0%

59%

Ink cartridges, etc.

1.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.3%

-28%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

98.7%

0.0%

-25%


37.8%

75.2%

25.6%

12.2%

0.0%

42%

32%

0.0%

1.5%

0.0%

49.6%

6.4%

4.7%

13%

-1%

-18%

Liquid luster, etc.

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

68%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ink 0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

13%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

-26%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-93%

-100%

Rolled photographic film

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 8%

(4) Comparison with world prices In (2) and (3), it was confirmed that in the case of Japan, the export values of some product groups (rubber/rubber products, paints, railway vehicle parts, gear boxes, etc.) are increasing because of rising prices regardless of whether volume is growing or declining. However, that does not make clear the level of export prices of Japan’s products compared with world prices. Meanwhile, in Chapter 1 (1)(A), it was confirmed that there is a general trend of Japan’s exports shifting to high-value-added products. Therefore, we will examine the current status of this trend by looking at movements in the export value of products for which the Japan’s price is higher than the world price and changes in Japan’s export share through comparison between Japanese and world prices. The comparison method is as described in Figure II-1-1-3-28.

Figure II-1-1-3-28 Comparison with world prices (calculation method) <1> Categorization concerning comparison with world prices Categorization is made based on whether or not the import price from Japan (or another major exporting country) is similar to, or higher or lower than the world price. - The “high price” category is comprised of items for which the value obtained by dividing the

Japanese price by the world price is higher than 1.05. - The “low price” category is comprised of items for which the value obtained by dividing the

Japanese price by the world price is lower than 0.95. - The “other” category is comprised of items which are not included in either the “high price” or

“low price” category. <2> Data - Comparison is made between items with the same tariff number (and with the same volume unit)

at the six-digit HS code level on a single-year basis.

215

- On a dollar base. Import prices at export destinations (data from the Global Trade Atlas) are used. First, we will look at changes in the overall export value by market between 2005 and 2014. While the overall values of Japan’s exports to China and the United States have not declined, the share of items in the “high price” category has declined, with the result that the gap between Japan and Germany, for which the share of items in that category is large, has widened (Figure II-1-1-3-29). On the other hand, although the overall value of Japan’s exports to the EU has declined, the share of items in the high price category has risen, reaching 78% in 2014, higher than the shares for the United States and the Republic of Korea. Meanwhile, the export value of items in the high price category has increased for many of the countries compared and the value has declined with regard to Japan’s exports to the United States and the EU. It should be kept in mind that Japan’s export prices have declined since 2013 due to the yen’s weakening because yen-based settlements, which account for around 40% of overall Japan’s export transactions in terms of value, are directly affected by movements of the nominal exchange rate. On the other hand, it should also be pointed out that regarding the contract currency-based export price index, prices of some items have declined since 2013 because of the effects of drops in international prices of commodities such as crude oil, indicating the possibility of exporters reducing prices. In (5) below, we will compare Japanese and world prices by market and by product.

Figure II-1-1-3-29 International comparison of item structures (by comparison with world prices)

Share of items with high price (right scale)

(Billion dollars)

Japan Germany United States United Kingdom ROK

High price Others Low price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from the target countries to China is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to China. The term “low price” means that import price from the target countries to China is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to China. The term “share of items with high price” means the share of items in the “high price” category in the international import value to China. Figures are dollar-based.


(Exports to China)

216


(Billion dollars)

Japan Germany United Kingdom ROK

High price Others Low price Notes: The term “high price” means that the import price from the target countries to the United

States is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to the United States. The term “low price” means that the import price from the target countries to the United States is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the United States. The term “share of items with high price” means the share of items in the “high price” category in the international import value to the United States. Figures are dollar-based.



(Billion dollars)

Japan United States ROK

High price Others Low price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from the target countries to EU is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to EU. The term “low price” means that import price from the target countries to EU is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to EU. The term “share of items with high price” means the share of items in the “high price” category in the international import value to EU. Figures are dollar-based.


(Exports to the United States)

(Exports to EU)

217

(5) Japan’s export trend by market Next, regarding exports to China, the United States and the EU, which are the main global trade markets, we will compare Japan with Germany and the United States, which are major exporting countries and which export products similar to those exported by Japan (comparison with Germany is conducted with respect to exports to China and the United States and comparison with the United States is conducted with respect to exports to the EU). At the same time, we will examine differences in the Japanese export trend by export destination. This comparison will be based on volume and price trend comparison conducted in (2) and (3) and comparison with world prices conducted in (4).

Figure II-1-1-3-30 (Reference) Guide to the price-volume analysis table (comparison with Germany and the United States)

○ Calculation method and composition of the table See Figure II-1-1-3-6 (Price-volume analysis (calculation method)) and Figure II-1-1-3-7 (Guide to the price-volume analysis table) in “(2) Export volume and price (international comparison)”. ○Mark indications 1. Shares of growing volume items and rising price items Underline: indicating that the Japanese share is larger than the share of the compared country. 2. Export value growth rate Bold line and underline: indicating that the item share is high.

An item share higher than 20% in the case of items in the growing volume category An item share higher than 10% in the case of items in the declining volume category (excluding items in the volume-/price-category)

Exports to the U.S.

(8 major sectors)

Che

mic

als/

pl

astic

s

Text

iles/

text

ile

artic

les

Iron

and

stee

l pr

oduc

ts

Non

ferr

ous

met

als

Gen

eral

m

achi

nery

Elec

trica

l m

achi

nery

Prec

isio

n m

achi

nery

Tran

spor

tatio

n eq

uipm

ent

Share of growing volume items (2014) 40.9% 56.4%

45.1%

77.9%

48.3%

49.7% 40.8% 58.8%

Japa

n

Share of rising export price items (2014) 58.4% 64.6%

33.5%

21.6%

35.2%

33.7% 64.6% 82.6%

Item share (2014) Volume+ Price++ 3.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 3.2% 0.5% 6.4% 0.0% Volume+ Price+ 11.3% 36.3

% 2.9% 11.0% 7.5% 4.4% 16.7% 48.6%

Volume+ Price± 12.9% 8.0% 30.5%

29.1%

25.1%

32.3% 9.7% 2.3%

Volume+ Price- 13.0% 11.1%

10.9%

37.1%

12.4%

12.4% 8.0% 7.9%

Export value growth rate (2011-2014 /

2005-2008) Volume+ Price++ 492% 97% 91% 51% 104% 119% 207% 2418

% Volume+ Price+ 66% 82% 81% 316% 32% 66% 40% 40% Volume+ Price± 64% 72% 49% 98% 36% 36% -1% -6% Volume+ Price- -22% 127% 67% 76% -2% 10% -7% 16%

Share of growing volume items (2014) 72.8% 69.2%

68.9%

63.4%

66.0%

77.1% 31.9% 89.1%

G Share of rising export price items (2014) 68.6% 44.4%

34.0%

23.9%

31.5%

22.4% 59.9% 70.0%

218

Item share (2014)

Volume+ Price++ 2.4% 1.6% 0.5% 2.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% Volume+ Price+ 48.3% 17.8

% 14.0

% 7.2% 10.0% 9.5% 13.3% 62.5%

Volume+ Price± 8.8% 12.1%

36.0%

32.3%

28.3%

24.6% 3.1% 15.1%

Volume+ Price- 13.2% 37.7%

18.4%

21.5%

26.3%

42.6% 14.8% 11.3%

Export value growth rate

(2011-2014/2005-2008)

Volume+ Price++ 124% 200% 742% 61% 73% 191% 187% 280% Volume+ Price+ 93% 65% 31% 59% 25% 60% 70% 22% Volume+ Price± 70% 5% 64% 90% 38% 63% 55% 81% Volume+ Price- -2% 122% 63% 8% 16% 81% 7% 68%

(A) Exports to China (Japan and Germany) We will compare exports to China from Japan and Germany concerning the eight major sectors. First, we will compare the two countries concerning the growing volume category (Table II-1-1-3-31). The share of items with growing volume is larger for Germany than for Japan in all sectors. As for the trend in the volume-price combination, in Germany, there are more sectors with a large share of items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+) than in Japan. In addition, there are more sectors with a large share of items in the growing volume/falling price category (volume+/unit price-) in Germany than in Japan, and the export value growth of items in this category is generally high in Germany.

219

Table II-1-1-3-31 Trends in volume and price (exports to China; major eight sectors; growing volume category)

(Exports to China) (Major eight sectors)

Che

mic

al a

nd

plas

tic p

rodu

cts

Text

iles a

nd

clot

hing

Arti

cles

of i

ron

or st

eel

Non

-fer

rous

m

etal

Gen

eral

m

achi

nery

Elec

tric

inst

rum

ents

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts

Tran

spor

tatio

n eq

uipm

ent

Japa

n



Share of items

(2014)

Volume + Price ++ 3.7% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 2.1% 4.3% 8.4% 1.1% Volume + Price + 37.3% 12.2% 15.2% 3.0% 12.4% 6.3% 8.4% 48.5% Volume + Price +/- 13.7% 12.1% 29.9% 10.7% 8.0% 14.0% 4.2% 0.8% Volume + Price - 4.2% 8.8% 14.5% 9.8% 25.8% 25.6% 20.8% 5.8%


value (2011-2014

/ 2005- 2008)

Volume + Price ++ 285% 508% 290% 317% 198% 202% 174% 667% Volume + Price + 155% 110% 84% 62% 191% 67% 114% 199% Volume + Price +/- 114% 89% 86% 106% 88% 228% 135% 76% Volume + Price - 46% 109% 32% 79% 124% 61% 95% 73%

Ger

man

y



Share of items

(2014)



value (2011-2014

/ 2005- 2008)

Volume + Price ++ 321% 385% 304% 450% 209% 343% 235% 1432% Volume + Price + 133% 219% 156% 70% 148% 137% 185% 723% Volume + Price +/- 246% 189% 61% 75% 106% 260% 219% 443% Volume + Price - 216% 139% 138% 75% 89% 136% 204% 285%

Next, we will look at the declining volume category (Table II-1-1-3-32). The share of items in the declining volume category for Japan is larger than the share for Germany in all eight major sectors. However, regarding the trend in the volume-price combination, the export value is growing in both the declining volume/rising price category (volume-/unit price+) and the declining volume/price surging category (volume-/unit price++), including precision machinery and general machinery.

220

Table II-1-1-3-32 Trends in volume and price (exports to China; major eight sectors; declining volume category)

(Exports to China) (Major eight sectors)

Che

mic

al a

nd

plas

tic p

rodu

cts

Text

iles a

nd

clot

hing

Arti

cles

of i

ron

or st

eel

Non

-fer

rous

m

etal

Gen

eral

m

achi

nery

Elec

tric

inst

rum

ents

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts

Tran

spor

tatio

n eq

uipm

ent

Share of items with declining export volume (2014) 27.2% 57.6% 32.0% 28.5% 43.7% 38.3% 49.4% 8.8%

Japa

n


Volume - Price ++ 3.4% 2.1% 0.8% 8.9% 11.4% 9.8% 10.3% 0.5% Volume - Price + 20.6% 26.1% 16.2% 11.7% 22.3% 5.7% 6.6% 3.2% Volume - Price +/- 3.0% 28.2% 11.1% 6.8% 9.1% 11.7% 32.1% 1.6% Volume - Price - 0.2% 1.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.9% 11.0% 0.3% 3.6%


Volume - Price ++ 0% 5% -58% 17% -10% 34% 27% 2% Volume - Price + -1% -10% -18% -15% 19% 2% 60% 15% Volume - Price +/- -22% 8% -26% -7% 2% -7% 58% 27% Volume - Price - -82% -84% -47% -52% -79% -52% -71% -42%

Share of items with declining export

volume (2014) 10.3% 5.2% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0% 13.9% 2.4% 5.7%

Ger

man

y




Volume - Price ++ -10% 16% 30% 28% 3% 42% 41% -28% Volume - Price + -8% -13% -39% -30% -13% -16% -1% 79% Volume - Price +/- 15% -10% -67% -38% 21% 2% 51% -21% Volume - Price - -14% -78% -69% -55% -72% -79% -88% -59%

A comparison with world prices shows that export value is increasing or remains unchanged in the high price category (in which the Japanese export price is higher than the world price) except concerning the iron and steel products, for which export value is declining somewhat. In some sectors (iron and steel products, nonferrous metals and general machinery), export value is rising steeply for the “low price” category (in which the Japanese price is lower than the world price) and the “other” category (in which the Japanese price is similar to the world price) (Figure II-1-1-3-33 and Table II-1-1-3-34).

221

Figure II-1-1-3-33 Item structures of Japan's exports to China (by comparison with world prices)

Table II-1-1-3-34 List of trends of item structures of Japan's exports to China by comparison

with world prices

Comparison with world prices

(structures by item) (Japan to China)

70 % or more share of items in the “high

price” category

Items with

growing export

value in the

“high price”

category

Items remaining

flat in export

value in the “high

price” category

Items declining in export value in the “high

price” category

Items with growing (or remaining)

export value due to the growth of the “low price” or “other”

category.

Share of

items with

volume + and

price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and

price- (2014)

Share of

items with rising price

(2014)

Chemical and plastic products × ○ 41.1% 4.2% 72.3% Textiles and clothing ○ ○ 15.4% 8.8% 47.8% Articles of iron or steel × ○ ○ 15.8% 14.5% 34.7%

Non-ferrous metal × (Declining) ○ ○ 3.0% 9.8% 31.3%

General machinery × ○ ○ 14.6% 25.8% 49.5% Electric instruments × ○ 10.7% 25.6% 33.1% Precision instruments × ○ 16.9% 20.8% 35.1% Transportation equipment × ○ 49.6% 5.8% 83.8%

(Billion dollars)


High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to China is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to China. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to China is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to China. This graph shows the share and value of target items in China's total import value from Japan.


Others Low price Share of items with high price (right scale)

Textiles and

clothing


Non-ferrous metal

General machinery



Transportation

equipment

Japan’s exports to China (major eight sectors)

222

<Exports to China: Reference 1> Major export products by sector ～ volume and price trend comparison (Japan and Germany) materials sector Regarding major export products in the materials sector, many items in the growing volume category (volume+) also belong to the rising price category (volume+/unit price+ or volume+/unit price++) (Table II-1-1-3-35) in the case of Japan. Meanwhile, in the case of Germany, not only the share of items in the rising price category (volume+/unit price+ or volume+/unit price++) but also the share of items in the falling price category (volume+/unit price-) is large concerning major export products. A comparison between Japan and Germany in terms of export value growth concerning the growing volume category (volume+) shows that Japan outperforms Germany with regard to some major export products (plastic film, etc., products related to paints and coloring matter (excluding paints), aluminum, etc.)74. On the other hand, the export value of items in the declining volume/rising price category (volume-/unit price+) is growing with regard to some major export products (Japan: copper, rubber/rubber products, products related to paints and coloring matter (excluding paints, etc.)).

Table II-1-1-3-35 Trends in volume and price (exports to China; raw materials sector) (Items in the growing volume category)

Japan Germany

Exports to China

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




(2011-2014 / 2005- 2008) V

olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(material sector)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


70.9%

80.6%

10.1%

49.0%

6.5%

5.3%

266%

116%

135%

17%

82.0%

74.9%

1.4%

59.4%

12.6%

8.6%

363%

139%

149%

248%

Inorganic chemicals

34.8%

46.3%

0.5%

14.4%

7.7%

12.2%

133%

116%

83%

14%

88.0%

16.2%

4.4%

3.8%

7.1%

72.6%

460%

108%

141%

226%

Organic monomers

67.3%

61.7%

1.0%

32.2%

32.3%

1.7%

275%

257%

117%

22%

55.0%

47.9%

22.7%

7.3%

9.8%

15.2%

303%

107% 95% 113

% Organic polymers

25.3%

66.1%

0.0%

12.7%

12.1%

0.5%

100%

93%

102%

56.8%

69.6%

0.0%

32.9%

19.3%

4.7%

82% 68% 136

% Plastic films, etc.

76.7%

88.0%

0.0%

65.1%

0.8%

10.8%

157%

24%

102%

87.4%

71.5%

0.5%

61.9%

8.7%

16.3%

1972%

114%

213%

146%

74This is a comparison between Japan and Germany in terms of the rate of export value growth of growing volume categories concerning which each of the two countries has a share of 20% or more.

223


34.9%

85.7%

28.4%

0.7%

3.0%

2.8%

348%

87%

96%

92%

65.5%

96.6%

3.6%

58.7%

0.0%

3.1%

388%

85%

45%

Paints 12.2%

18.6%

0.0%

0.0%

9.1%

3.2%

11% 2%

92.6%

84.0%

0.0%

79.3%

10.0%

3.3%

121%

173% 8%


30.3%

78.3%

0.0%

28.2%

2.1%

0.0%

177%

396%

0.1%

42.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

162%


35.6%

79.4%

5.2%

27.0%

1.3%

2.1%

1695%

101%

44%

17%

94.9%

32.3%

0.8%

27.0%

22.5%

44.6%

102%

183%

222%

225%

Tires (new)

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Medicines 93.0%

76.3%

0.4%

69.3%

2.8%

20.4% 50% 268

% 450%

98%

98.7%

61.1%

52.6%

7.4%

32.2%

6.5%

322%

348%

1275%

366%

Cosmetics 100.0%

93.4%

3.5%

89.9%

6.6%

0.0%

134%

295%

207%

76.8%

19.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

76.8%

388%


37.9%

46.0%

1.9%

12.5%

15.3%

8.3%

639%

117%

85%

64%

86.5%

49.3%

4.2%

38.3%

12.1%

31.9%

177%

224%

147%

111%

Man-made fibers

35.0%

49.3%

4.3%

12.0%

9.4%

9.2%

475%

104%

94%

174%

56.0%

68.7%

15.3%

14.0%

15.8%

10.9%

1089%

189%

273%

586%

Iron and steel

53.0%

29.6%

0.3%

7.3%

29.6%

15.7%

312%

59%

84%

31%

77.9%

19.0%

2.9%

11.6%

31.2%

32.2%

525%

169% 45% 161

% Articles of iron or steel

78.2%

47.5%

1.3%

35.0%

30.7%

11.3%

280%

98%

90%

33%

79.2%

44.1%

1.3%

34.4%

6.3%

37.2%

211%

154% 96% 130

%

Non-ferrous metal (others)

5.9%

78.2%

0.0%

0.0%

4.0%

1.9%

317%

261%

107%

-7%

5.6%

98.6%

2.6%

0.9%

0.7%

1.5%

416%

507%

126%

66%

Copper 12.9%

25.7%

0.0%

1.3%

7.8%

3.8%

126%

60%

237%

29.0%

76.6%

0.7%

16.9%

7.0%

4.4%

970%

84% 78% 68

%

Aluminum 66.8%

42.0%

0.0%

10.3%

21.8%

34.7%

37%

230%

62%

82.7%

82.4%

0.0%

68.8%

6.5%

7.4%

58% 42% 355

%

Nickel 3.9%

75.6%

0.0%

0.4%

3.5%

0.0%

32%

202%

85.3%

32.6%

0.0%

25.0%

0.5%

59.8%

90%

349%

27%


49.3%

51.2%

0.0%

32.8%

15.8%

0.7%

171%

120%

124%

36.1%

77.6%

7.0%

17.7%

5.3%

6.1%

241%

116%

226%

234%

Glass 26.

9% 16.3%

0.0%

2.9%

13.5%

10.5%

125%

145%

145%

348%

77.1%

77.3%

22.5%

46.1%

1.9%

6.6%

434%

731%

128%

81%

224

(Items in the declining volume category) Japan Germany

Exports to China

Share of items w

ith declining export volum

e (2014)



(2011-2014 / 2005- 2008)

Share of items w


e (2014)


Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008) V

olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(Raw material sector)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


21.0%

2.1%

13.6%

5.2%

0.1%

56%

16% -9% -59%

11.8%

2.4%

6.8%

0.8%

1.8% 48% 10% 9% 62%

Inorganic chemicals

46.1%

15.0%

15.6%

11.6%

3.9%

-28%

12%

-28% -66%

7.9%

2.7%

4.7%

0.2%

0.3% -1% -13

% -55%

-73%

Organic polymers 56.4%

0.9%

51.3%

4.2%

0.0%

131% 0% 4% -66%

26.6%

1.0%

25.2%

0.4%

0.0%

-25% 4% -31

% -100%


59.5%

37.2%

13.7%

8.4%

0.2%

29%

-16%

-14% -21%

28.3%

2.9%

25.2%

0.2%

0.0%

-34% -6% -26

% -100%


36.3%

0.6%

33.0%

2.7%

0.0%

-16%

45% -2% -100

% 2.3%

1.8%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

-19%

-33% 16% -90

%


56.1%

2.9%

25.1%

26.2%

2.0%

32%

18%

18% -84%

5.4%

1.1%

3.4%

0.3%

0.6% 10% -16

% -25%

-75%

Man-made fibers 58.8%

1.4%

27.0%

29.9%

0.5%

-19%

-23% 2% -82%

4.8%

1.1%

1.3%

2.4%

0.1% 20% -11

% -5% -84%

Copper 27.6%

10.9%

7.3%

9.3%

0.0%

51%

-16% -8% -80%

14.2%

0.0%

8.6%

5.5%

0.1%

-29%

-37%

-65%


43.5%

0.7%

11.2%

31.6%

0.0%

17%

32%

-9%

-100%

19.3%

8.4%

8.2%

2.7%

0.0% 61% 69% -43

% -100%

<Machinery sector> In the machinery sector, the share of items in the growing volume/falling price category (volume+/unit price-) is large concerning more major export products than in the materials sector (Table II-1-1-3-36). Meanwhile, some major export products include many items in the growing volume/surging price category (volume+/unit price++) (testing and measuring instruments (electronic, electric and industrial), motor vehicle parts and railway vehicle parts). In the case of Germany, the growing volume category (volume+) is expanding to include more products with rising price (volume+/unit price+) or steeply rising price (volume+/unit price++) as well as products with falling price (volume+/unit price-). A comparison between the two countries in terms of the export value growth of the growing volume category (volume+) shows that Japan outperforms

225

Germany with regard to some major export products (machine tools, ball bearings, cocks/valves, motor vehicle parts and railway vehicle parts). In addition, the export value of items in the declining volume / rising price category (volume-/unit price+ or volume-/unit price++) concerning some major export products (ball bearings, trucks) is growing.

Table II-1-1-3-36 Trends in volume and price (exports to China; machinery sector) (Items in the growing volume category)

Japan Germany

Exports to China

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




Share of item

s with grow

ing export volum

e (2014)

Share of items w



Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005- 2008) V

olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(Machinery)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


44.4%

51.6%

4.0%

8.8%

10.9%

20.8%

198%

110%

66%

67%

67.6%

43.9%

3.8%

22.2%

7.8%

33.8%

209%

132%

92%

71%

Machine tool 71.8%

15.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

71.8%

245%

86.1%

71.2%

0.7%

60.8%

18.9%

5.7%

192%

216%

99%

125%

Bulldozers 0.0%

6.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

12.0%

84.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

12.0%

-41%

Ball bearings 36.8%

74.5%

0.0%

15.7%

21.2%

0.0%

102%

212%

75.3%

21.1%

0.0%

9.7%

0.0%

65.6%

174%

96%

Gearboxes 37.4%

67.2%

0.0%

35.7%

0.0%

1.7%

143%

227%

63.6%

28.2%

0.0%

28.2%

1.1%

34.2%

168%

19%

117%


71.7%

42.4%

0.0%

42.4%

0.0%

29.3% - -

85.8%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

23.9%

61.9% - -

Cocks and valves

100.0%

18.0%

0.0%

18.0%

28.9%

53.1%

174%

178%

96%

100.0%

15.6%

0.0%

15.6%

0.0%

84.4%

103%

95%


36.5%

47.1%

11.2%

2.3%

3.5%

19.5%

202%

132%

81%

20%

73.4%

48.9%

5.3%

31.2%

13.9%

23.1%

315%

131%

268%

102%

Condensers 69.4%

93.6%

0.0%

69.4%

0.0%

0.0%

52%

76.5%

44.7%

0.0%

30.0%

0.0%

46.5%

221%

262%

Integrated circuits

66.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

36.9%

29.3%

330%

149%

90.5%

3.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

90.5%

228%


77.3%

12.4%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

77.3%

53%

55.0%

33.2%

0.0%

0.0%

46.3%

8.6%

217%

-56%


0.0%

0.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

77.5%

22.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

77.5%

1062%

226


22.6%

71.1%

0.0%

6.6%

13.6%

2.4%

84%

61%

31%

95.5%

77.8%

0.0%

73.3%

0.0%

22.2%

172%

60%


45.7%

63.5%

0.0%

28.1%

17.2%

0.4%

327%

129%

12%

99.4%

76.2%

54.3%

21.4%

0.0%

23.7%

641%

22%

-59%

61%


21.9%

31.8%

1.8%

7.0%

0.2%

13.0%

236%

121%

142%

179%

73.3%

45.2%

1.3%

19.6%

6.9%

45.4%

709%

171%

323%

229%


91.0%

45.7%

32.2%

4.6%

2.4%

51.9%

175%

56%

126%

58%

86.5%

23.8%

0.5%

17.0%

27.2%

41.8%

178%

273%

215%

161%

Medical equipment

87.6%

36.0%

3.1%

32.5%

46.1%

5.8%

63%

133%

136%

66%

95.8%

50.0%

11.0%

35.1%

11.5%

38.3%

214%

143%

175%

262%

Passenger cars 100

.0% 99.5%

0.0%

99.4%

0.0%

0.5%

204%

125%

89.4%

99.4%

0.0%

88.8%

0.6%

0.0%

833%

4106%

Cargo motor cars 23.0%

62.4%

0.0%

19.8%

3.1%

0.0%

196%

-14%

99.8%

79.4%

0.0%

79.4%

20.4%

0.0%

340%

896%

Buses 0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tractors 0.0%

13.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

94.5%

5.5%

0.0%

0.0%

2.5%

92.0%

140%

105%

Motor vehicle parts

15.6%

69.2%

0.0%

2.6%

1.5%

11.4%

96%

75%

72%

86.3%

19.1%

0.7%

14.8%

37.5%

33.3%

3073%

416%

460%

307%

Bicycle parts 21.5%

99.7%

21.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

141%

39.4%

45.1%

0.0%

39.4%

0.0%

0.0%

105%

Aircraft parts 0.2%

98.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

133%

99.9%

96.3%

5.5%

90.7%

1.9%

1.8%

272%

646%

161%

81%

Railway parts 72.7%

79.1%

70.0%

2.7%

0.0%

0.0%

840%

374%

86.6%

24.5%

4.5%

18.9%

14.3%

48.9%

8239%

155%

381%

166%

Marine vessels 0.0%

33.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50%

16.2%

25.4%

16.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1586%

227

(Items in the declining volume category)

Japan Germany

Exports to China

Share of items w


e (2014)

Share of items (2014) Growth rate of export

value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Share of items w


e (2014)



(2011-2014 / 2005- 2008) V

olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(Machinery)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


50.3%

15.8%

22.4%

10.5%

1.6%

-17%

-12% 2% -77%

18.1% 4.4% 4.9

% 8.1% 0.7% -1% -12

% 17% -52%

Ball bearings 58.8%

13.1%

45.7% 0.0% 0.0

% 120% 47%

11.4% 6.8% 4.5

% 0.0% 0.0% 49% -5%

Gearboxes 62.6%

31.5% 0.0% 31.1

% 0.0% 59% 66%

36.4% 0.0% 0.0

% 36.4%

0.0%

38%


52.4%

21.7%

10.1%

18.8%

1.8% 42% 6% -25

% -70% 15.6% 5.2% 3.5

% 5.4% 1.3% 43% -15

% 3% -71%


100.0% 0.7% 0.0% 99.3

% 0.0%

-56%

103%

-100%

22.5%

22.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 20%

-99%


68.7%

13.7% 9.1% 45.4

% 0.5% 22% 58% 58% -70% 2.9% 2.2% 0.0

% 0.7% 0.0% 46% -1% 113

% -72%

Cargo motor cars

49.2% 0.0% 42.5

% 6.7% 0.0%

104%

-71% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 0.0% 0.0%

-88%

Buses 99.7% 0.0% 99.7

% 0.0% 0.0% 40% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 0.0% 0.0%

Bicycle parts 78.4%

78.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0

% 33% -22% -94% 3.5% 3.4% 0.0

% 0.1% 0.0%

177%

-38%

853%

<Other products75> We will also look at product subgroups of particular interest included in the above-mentioned major export product groups in the materials and machinery sectors and in smaller groups. For example, there are many product groups in which the share of items in the growing volume category (volume+) is large (Table II-1-1-3-37). Regarding price-trend categories, there is not any particular concentration of items by price trend category, while there are some other product groups, the export value of items in the falling price/growing volume category (volume+/unit price-) is growing (chemicals for electronic parts, industrial robots, machining centers, etc. for metal processing and medical sample testing instruments).

75 As for other products, see the footnote in II-1-1-3(3)(C).

228

On the other hand, there are also other product groups in which the export value of some items is growing despite declining volume because of rising price (polarizing material sheets, processing machines for deburring and other usages), etc.).

Table II-1-1-3-37 Trends in volume and price (exports to China; other items) (Items in the growing volume category)

Japan Germany

Exports to China

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w


Share of item

s (2014)


Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w

ith rising export grow

ing price (2014)


Growth rate of export value (2011-2014/ 2005-2008) V

olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(Other items)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Iodine 100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

140%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Acrylic polymers

71.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

71.0%

0.0%

100%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

23%


100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

97%

85.7%

100.0%

0.0%

85.7%

0.0%

0.0%

205%


100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

268%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

269%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

18%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carbon fibers

29.5%

100.0%

29.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

361%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

353%


76.3%

5.5%

0.3%

2.1%

39.3%

34.6%

99%

-28%

227%

17%

9.8%

7.8%

0.0%

6.1%

3.7%

0.0%

1171%

261%


60.2%

58.1%

0.0%

28.3%

23.3%

8.6%

70%

418%

21%

97.8%

1.2%

0.0%

0.0%

82.2%

15.6%

11%

269%

Industrial robots

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

258%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

286%

229


99.1%

0.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

99.1%

245%

99.4%

95.2%

0.0%

95.2%

4.3%

0.0%

201%

315%

Car navigation systems

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0% -

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

-18%

64.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

64.6%

36%


100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

57%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0% 9%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

145%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

139%


100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

247%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

169%


100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

63%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

140%

Endoscopes 100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

165%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

295%

Pruning shears

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

286%

100.0%

98.0%

0.0%

98.0%

2.0%

0.0%

380%

67%

Saws 100.0%

82.9%

0.0%

82.9%

10.3%

6.7%

294% 52% 165

% 94.8%

100.0%

0.0%

94.8%

0.0%

0.0%

65%


45.6%

90.0%

0.0%

45.6%

0.0%

0.0%

144%

33.0%

41.6%

0.0%

33.0%

0.0%

0.0% 5%

Optical microscopes

52.3%

65.6%

52.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

301%

77.0%

43.3%

0.0%

20.3%

56.7%

0.0%

44%

622%


61.2%

49.8%

4.0%

36.3%

21.0%

0.0%

462%

558%

158%

38.0%

20.0%

10.7%

0.0%

1.4%

25.9%

192%

246%

263%

Liquid luster, etc.

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

3656%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

-22%


62.7%

22.1%

0.0%

6.1%

13.1%

43.5%

72%

790% 3%

9.9%

12.8%

0.0%

3.7%

0.0%

6.3%

14%

-46%

230


Japan Germany

Exports to China

Share of items w


e (2014)



(2011-2014 / 2005 to 2008)

Share of items w


e (2014)



(2011-2014 / 2005 to 2008) V

olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(Other items)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

60%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

2097%


39.8%

0.0%

29.9%

0.0%

10.0% 2%

-32%

1.6%

0.0%

1.2%

0.3%

0.0%

-66%

-88%


100.0%

0.0%

70.0%

30.0%

0.0%

84%

-2%

10.6%

0.0%

0.6%

9.5%

0.5%

-79%

120%

-55%

Optical fibers 29.4%

0.0%

0.0%

29.4%

0.0%

93%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Liquid crystal devices 100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

60%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

126%

Optical microscopes 47.7%

13.3%

0.0%

34.4%

0.0%

61%

-9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


25.9%

0.0%

0.0%

24.0%

1.9%

25%

-59%

7.9%

7.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% -14%

-64%

Ink 100.0%

64.0%

12.3%

23.8%

0.0% 8% -17

% -13%

8.5%

0.0%

8.5%

0.0%

0.0%

51%

<Exports to China: Reference 2> Major export products by sector ～ comparison with world prices A comparison with world prices shows that the export value of items in the high price category is growing with regard to many major export products (and other products) (plastic film, etc., precision machinery, cocks/valves, switches, etc. (for switching of electrical circuits, etc.), testing and measuring instruments (electrical, electronic and industrial), motor vehicle parts, polyethylene terephthalate, endoscopes, etc.) (Figure II-1-1-3-38). Overall export value is growing with respect to some major export products (and other products) concerning which the export value of items in the high price category is not growing, mainly because of an increase in the export value of items in the low price category or items in the “other” category (organic monomers, iron and steel products, integrated circuits, machining centers, etc. for metal processing, flat rolled products of steel or alloy (of a width of 600 mm or more), etc.).

231

Figure II-1-1-3-38 Item structures of Japan's exports to China (by comparison with world prices; major exports items, etc.)

(Billion dollars) C

hem

ical

and

pl

astic

pro

duct

s (o

ther

s)

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that the import price from Japan to China is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to China. The term “low price” means that the import price from Japan to China is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to China. This graph shows the share and value of target items in China's total import value from Japan.


Others

Low price


Inor

gani

c ch

emic

als

Org

anic

m

onom

ers

Org

anic

po

lym

ers

Plas

tic fi

lms,

etc.

Prod

ucts

rela

ted

to

pain

ts a

nd c

olor

ing

mat

ter,

excl

udin

g pa

ints

Pain

ts

Phot

ogra

phic

m

ater

ials

Rub

ber a

nd ru

bber

pr

oduc

ts e

xclu

ding

ne

w ti

res

Tires (new)

Medicines

Cosmetics

Japan’s exports to China ( material sector 1)

232

(Billion dollars)

Textiles and

clothing, excluding

man- made fibers High price



Others Low price Share of items with high price (right scale)

Japan’s exports to China ( material sector 2)

Man- made fibers

Iron and steel

Articles of iron or

steel

Non- ferrous metal

(others)

Copper Aluminum Nickel Tools and

cutlery of base metal

Glass

233

(Billion dollars)

General machinery

(others)

High price

Notes: 1. The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to China is 1.05 times higher than

the average international import price to China. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to China is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to China. This graph shows the share and value of target items in China's total import value from Japan.

2. Data for semiconductor manufacturing apparatus exclude those in 2005. Source: Global Trade Atlas.

Low price Share of items with high price (right scale)

Japan’s exports to China (general machinery sector)

Machine tool

Bulldozers Printing machines

Ball bearings

Gearboxes Semiconductor-manuf

acturing apparatus

Cocks and

valves

Others

234

Others

(Billion dollars) El

ectri

c in

stru

men

ts

(oth

ers)

High price


Japan's exports to China (electric instruments/precision instruments)

Con

dens

ers

Inte

grat

ed

circ

uits

Sem

icon

duct

or

devi

ces

Tran

smis

sion

app

arat

us

for r

adio

-bro

adca

stin

g or

tele

visi

on

Switc

hes,

etc. (

or

switc

hing

of

electr

ical c

ircui

ts)

Elec

troni

c m

achi

nery

for

inter

nal-c

ombu

stion

engi

nes

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts

(oth

ers)

Te

sting

and

mea

surin

g in

strum

ents

(elec

troni

c, ele

ctric

and i

ndus

trial)

M

edic

al

equi

pmen

t



235

(Billion dollars)

Passenger cars

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to China is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to China. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to China is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to China. This graph shows the share and value of target items in China’s total import value from Japan.



Japan’s exports to China (transportation equipment sector)

Others

Cargo motor cars

Buses Tractors Motor vehicle parts

Bicycle parts

Aircraft parts

Railway parts

Marine vessels

236

(Billion dollars)

Iodine

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to China is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to China. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to China is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to China. This graph shows the share and value of target items in China’s total import value to Japan.



Japan’s exports to China (other items 1)

Others

Acrylic polym

ers


Petroleum resin,

etc.

Polarizing material

sheets

Materials of

electronic parts

Carbon fibers

Flat rolled products of steel or non-alloyed steel (of a w

idth of 600 m

m or m

ore)

Flat rolled products of other non-alloyed steel (of a w

idth of 600 m

m or m

ore)

Iron and steel pipes and those w

ith hollow profiles

Refined copper

Nickel alloy pipes and pipe

joints

Liquid luster, etc.

Ink



237

(Billion dollars)

Indu

stria

l ro

bots

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to China is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to China. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to China is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to China. This graph shows the share and value of target items in China’s total import value to Japan.



Japan’s exports to China (other items 2)

Others

Proc

essi

ng m

achi

nes

usin

g la

sers

, etc

.

Proc

essi

ng m

achi

nes

(grid

ing

mac

hine

s, et

c.)

Mac

hini

ng c

ente

rs fo

r m

etal

pro

cess

ing,

etc

.

Elec

tric

furn

aces

for

indu

stria

l and

phy

sica

l an

d ch

emic

al u

se

Inje

ctio

n-m

oldi

ng

mac

hine

s for

rubb

er

and

plas

tic

Opt

ical

fibe

rs

Liqu

id c

ryst

al

devi

ces

Lith

ium

ion

stor

age

batte

ries

Car

na

viga

tion

syst

ems

Wire

less

bas

e st

atio

ns

238

As for major export products (and other product groups) concerning which the export value of items in the high price category is growing, the shares of many items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+ or volume+/unit price++) are large (Table II-1-1-3-39) according to the volume and price trend comparison that was used in <Exports to China: Reference 1> (plastic film, etc., pharmaceutical products, electrical capacitors, railway vehicle parts, etc.). This suggests that export value may be growing without price competition. Meanwhile, there are also many major export products (and other products) concerning which overall export value is growing due to the growth of the low price and “other” categories (Table II-1-1-3-40). Concerning many of those products, the share of items in the growing volume/falling price category (volume+/unit price-) is large. However, concerning some of the major export products (and other products) for which overall export value is growing because of the growth of the low price and “other” categories, the share of items in the rising price category is large (cosmetics, passenger cars, etc.). One reason why the low price and “other” categories, rather than the high price category, are growing despite the uptrend in prices may be the possibility that Japanese prices are becoming relatively low because of increased imports of high-price products from other countries.

(Billion dollars)

Dev

ices

for m

easu

ring

sem

icon

duct

ors a

nd IC

s

High price

Notes: 1. The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to China is 1.05 times higher than

the average international import price to China. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to China is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to China. This graph shows the share and value of target items in China’s total import value to Japan.

2. Data for sanitary products (diapers) exclude those in 2005. Source: Global Trade Atlas.


Japan’s exports to China (other items 3

Others

Ultr

ason

ic sc

anni

ng

appa

ratu

s M

edic

al sa

mpl

e te

stin

g in

stru

men

ts

Endo

scop

es

X-r

ay c

ompu

ter

tom

ogra

phy

appa

ratu

s X

-ray

app

arat

us fo

r di

agno

stic

use

Arti

ficia

l joi

nts

Prun

ing

shea

rs

Saw

s

Kitc

hen

kniv

es

and

kniv

es

Ink

cartr

idge

s, et

c.

Statio

nery

(ball-p

oint p

ens,

penc

ils, c

rayon

s, etc.

Opt

ical

m

icro

scop

es

Sanit

ary pr

oduc

ts (di

apers

, etc.

)

239

Table II-1-1-3-39 Major export items, etc. for which the export value of the higher price category compared to world prices is increasing (exports to China)




price” category


export value due to the

growth of the “low price” or

“other” category.

Share of items with

volume + and price + (2014)

Share of items with volume+ and price-

(2014)

Share of items with

rising price

(2014)

Chemical and plastic products (others) ○ 59.1% 5.3% 80.6%

Organic monomers × ○ 33.2% 1.7% 61.7%

Organic polymers ○ 12.7% 0.5% 66.1%

Plastic films, etc. ○ 65.1% 10.8% 88.0%

Photographic materials ○ 28.2% 0.0% 78.3%

Rubber and rubber products excluding new tires ○ 32.2% 2.1% 79.4%

Medicines ○ 69.8% 20.4% 76.3%

Textiles and clothing, excluding man-made fibers ○ 14.3% 8.3% 46.0%

Aluminum ○ 10.3% 34.7% 42.0%

Tools and cutlery of base metal ○ 32.8% 0.7% 51.2%

Glass × (Declining) ○ 2.9% 10.5% 16.3%

Printing machines ○ (Growing) - - -

Ball bearings × (Declining) ○ 15.7% 0.0% 74.5%

Gearboxes × ○ 35.7% 1.7% 67.2%

Cocks and valves × 18.0% 53.1% 18.0%

Electric instruments (others) ○ (Growing) 13.5% 19.5% 47.1%

Condensers ○ 69.4% 0.0% 93.6%

Switches, etc.(or switching of electrical circuits) ○ 6.6% 2.4% 71.1%

Precision instruments (others) × ○ 8.8% 13.0% 31.8%

Testing and measuring instruments (electronic, electric and industrial) ○ 36.8% 51.9% 45.7%

Medical equipment × 35.6% 5.8% 36.0%

Motor vehicle parts ○ (Growing) 2.6% 11.4% 69.2%

Bicycle parts ○ 21.5% 0.0% 99.7%

Aircraft parts × ○ 0.0% 0.0% 98.0%

Railway parts ○ (Growing) 72.7% 0.0% 79.1%

Iodine ○ (Growing) 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Acrylic polymers ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Polyethylene terephthalate ○ 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Polarizing material sheets ○ 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Carbon fibers ○ 29.5% 0.0% 100.0%


× 28.3% 8.6% 58.1%

Endoscopes ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pruning shears ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

240




price” category


export value due to the

growth of the “low price” or


Share of items with

volume + and price + (2014)

Share of items with volume+ and price-

(2014)

Share of items with

rising price

(2014)

Saws ○ (Growing) 82.9% 6.7% 82.9%

Kitchen knives and knives ○ 45.6% 0.0% 90.0%

Ink cartridges, etc. ○ 0.0% 0.0% 98.8%

Optical microscopes ○ (Growing) 52.3% 0.0% 65.6%

Stationery (ball-point pens, pencils, crayons, etc. ○ 40.3% 0.0% 49.8%

Liquid luster, etc. ○ (Growing) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Table II-1-1-3-40 Major export items, etc. for which the export value of the lower price or

same-level category compared to world prices is increasing (exports to China)

Comparison with world

prices (structures by item) (Japan to China)


price” category

Items remaining

flat in export


price” category

Items declining in export value in

the “high price”

category



category.

Share of

items with

volume + and

price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and price- (2014)

Share of

items with

rising price

(2014)

Inorganic chemicals × (Declining) ○ ○ 14.9% 12.2% 46.3%

Tires (new) × ○ ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Cosmetics × (Declining) ○ ○ 93.4% 0.0% 93.4%

Articles of iron or steel × ○ ○ 36.3% 11.3% 47.5%

Copper × (Declining) ○ ○ 1.3% 3.8% 25.7%

s Nickel × ○ ○ 0.4% 0.0% 75.6%

Machine tool × ○ ○ 0.0% 71.8% 15.7%

Integrated circuits × ○ 0.0% 29.3% 0.0%

Semiconductor devices ○ ○ ○ 0.0% 77.3% 12.4%


× ○ ○ 28.1% 0.4% 63.5%

Passenger cars × ○ 99.4% 0.5% 99.5%

Petroleum resin, etc. × (Declining) ○ ○ 100.0

% 0.0% 100.0%


× ○ ○ 2.4% 34.6% 5.5%

Refined copper × (Declining) ○ ○ 0.8% 0.0% 0.8%

Industrial robots × ○ 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Machining centers for metal processing, etc. × ○ 0.0% 99.1% 0.7%

241


prices (structures by item) (Japan to China)


price” category

Items remaining

flat in export


price” category



category



category.

Share of

items with

volume + and

price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and price- (2014)

Share of

items with

rising price

(2014)

Optical fibers × (Declining) ○ ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Liquid crystal devices × ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Ultrasonic scanning apparatus × ○ 100.0

% 0.0% 100.0%

Medical sample testing instruments × ○ 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%


× (Declining) ○ ○ 100.0

% 0.0% 100.0%

Rolled photographic film × ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (B) Exports to the United States (Japan and Germany) Next, we will compare exports to the United States from Japan and Germany concerning the eight major sectors. First, we will make the comparison with respect to the growing volume category (Table II-1-1-3-41). While Germany outperforms Japan in terms of the share of items in the growing volume category in many sectors, the share is higher for Japan than for Germany in the nonferrous and precision machinery sectors. As for the trend in the volume-price combination, the share of items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+) is large in the transportation equipment sector in both countries. The share of such items is also large in the chemicals and plastics sector in Germany and the textiles and textile articles sector in Japan. Meanwhile, in Germany, there are more sectors with a large share of products in the growing volume/falling price category (volume+/unit price-) than in Japan, and the export value of this category is increasing for Germany except in the chemicals and plastics sector.

Table II-1-1-3-41 Trends in price and volume (exports to the United States; major eight sectors; growing volume category)

Exports to the United States (Major eight sectors)

Che

mic

al a

nd

plas

tic p

rodu

cts

Text

iles a

nd

clot

hing

Arti

cles

of i

ron

or st

eel

Non

-fer

rous

m

etal

Gen

eral

m

achi

nery

Elec

tric

inst

rum

ents

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts

Tran

spor

tatio

n eq

uipm

ent

Japa

n




Volume + Price ++ 3.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 3.2% 0.5% 6.4% 0.0% Volume + Price + 11.3% 36.3% 2.9% 11.0% 7.5% 4.4% 16.7% 48.6% Volume + Price +/- 12.9% 8.0% 30.5% 29.1% 25.1% 32.3% 9.7% 2.3%

242

Volume + Price - 13.0% 11.1% 10.9% 37.1% 12.4% 12.4% 8.0% 7.9% Growth rate

of export value

(2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Volume + Price ++ 492% 97% 91% 51% 104% 119% 207% 2418% Volume + Price + 66% 82% 81% 316% 32% 66% 40% 40% Volume + Price +/- 64% 72% 49% 98% 36% 36% -1% -6% Volume + Price - -22% 127% 67% 76% -2% 10% -7% 16%

Ger

man

y






value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Volume + Price ++ 124% 200% 742% 61% 73% 191% 187% 280% Volume + Price + 93% 65% 31% 59% 25% 60% 70% 22% Volume + Price +/- 70% 5% 64% 90% 38% 63% 55% 81% Volume + Price - -2% 122% 63% 8% 16% 81% 7% 68%

In all of the eight major sectors except for nonferrous metals, the share of items with declining volume is larger in Japan than in Germany (Table II-1-1-3-42). Concerning the declining volume/rising price category (volume-/unit price+ or volume-/unit price++), export value is growing for some items in the iron and steel products and precision machinery sectors in the case of Japan. In the precision instrument sector in particular, the share of items with steeply rising prices (volume-/unit price++) is large and the rate of export value growth of this category is high.

Table II-1-1-3-42 Trends in price and volume (exports to the United States; major eight sectors; declining volume category)

Exports to the United States (Major eight sectors)

Che

mic

al a

nd

plas

tic p

rodu

cts

Text

iles a

nd

clot

hing

Arti

cles

of i

ron

or st

eel

Non

-fer

rous

m

etal

Gen

eral

m

achi

nery

Elec

tric

inst

rum

ents

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts

Tran

spor

tatio

n eq

uipm

ent


volume (2014) 36.7% 34.1% 34.9% 18.6

% 36.9% 33.1% 58.6% 37.3%

Japa

n


Volume - Price ++ 6.7% 6.0% 7.2% 1.3% 3.7% 5.7% 33.9% 0.3%

Volume - Price + 20.1% 14.7% 13.8% 8.2% 20.2% 20.2% 7.3% 30.2%

Volume - Price +/- 8.8% 10.9% 12.5% 8.1% 11.0% 5.9% 17.3% 6.4%

Volume - Price - 1.1% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.5%


Volume - Price ++ -15% -37% 5% -50% 3% -3% 16% 0% Volume - Price + -17% -26% 6% -67% -11% -6% -25% -38% Volume - Price +/- -8% -57% -10% -34% -4% -27% 16% -29% Volume - Price - -69% -67% -45% -51% -77% -95% -96% -69%

243


volume (2014) 19.0% 23.0% 21.4% 33.7

% 25.7% 15.8% 47.6% 6.7% G

erm

any


Volume - Price ++ 9.5% 4.1% 7.6% 2.7% 8.6% 4.4% 12.6% 1.0%

Volume - Price + 5.7% 14.1% 5.1% 11.0

% 8.2% 3.6% 17.8% 2.9%

Volume - Price +/- 3.4% 3.7% 7.8% 9.6% 8.0% 6.8% 16.7% 2.0%

Volume - Price - 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 10.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8%


Volume - Price ++ 71% -32% -7% 7% -20% -6% 20% 26% Volume - Price + -7% -23% -21% -26% -8% -51% 15% -17% Volume - Price +/- -48% -43% -41% -34% 1% 4% -3% 1% Volume - Price - -61% -80% -56% -49% -80% -84% -66% -45%

A comparison with world prices shows that the export value of the high price category is growing only in the iron and steel products and nonferrous metals sectors (Figure II-1-1-3-43 and Table II-1-1-3-44). Some sectors are increasing or keeping flat their overall export value through the growth of the low price category or the “other” category, rather than the high price category (general machinery and transportation equipment). Figure II-1-1-3-43 Item structures of Japan's exports to the United States (by comparison with

world prices)

(Billion dollars)

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to the United States. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the United States. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the United States’ total import value from Japan.



Others

Japan’s exports to the United States (major eight sectors)


Textiles and

clothing


Non-ferrous metal

General machinery




244

Table II-1-1-3-44 List of trends of item structures of Japan's exports to the United States (by comparison with world prices)


(structures by item) (Japan to the United

States)

70 % or more

share of items in


category

Items with

growing export

value in the

“high price”

category

Items remaining

flat in export


price” category


price” category

Items with growing

export value (or remaining flat) due to the growth of the “low price” or


Share of

items with

volume + and

price + (2014)

Share of

items with

volume + and price - (2014)

Share of


(2014)

Chemical and plastic products ○ ○ 15.1% 13.0% 58.4%

Textiles and clothing ○ ○ 37.2% 11.1% 64.6% Articles of iron or steel ○ ○ 3.8% 10.9% 33.5%

Non-ferrous metal ○ ○ 11.7% 37.1% 21.6% General machinery × ○ ○ 10.7% 12.4% 35.2% Electric instruments × ○ 5.0% 12.4% 33.7% Precision instruments ○ ○ 23.0% 8.0% 64.6% Transportation equipment × ○ ○ 48.6% 7.9% 82.6%

<Exports to the United States: Reference 1> Major export products by sector～volume and price trend comparison (Japan and Germany) materials sector In the case of Japan, there is not an uneven distribution of items by price trend category with regard to items in the growing volume category concerning major export products in the raw materials sector (Table II-1-1-3-45). Meanwhile, in the case of Germany, the share of items in the rising price category (volume+/unit price+) is large with regard to chemicals-related major export products in particular. A comparison between the two countries in terms of the export value growth of items with growing volume in major price trend categories shows that the rate of export value growth is higher for Germany than for Japan with regard to many chemicals-related major export products, but with regard to some major export products, the rate of growth is higher for Japan (products related to paints and coloring matter (excluding paints), tires (new tires), pharmaceutical products, iron and steel products, copper, aluminum, nickel and glass)76. With respect to pharmaceutical products and glass in particular, the share of items in the surging price category (volume+/unit price++) is large and the rate of export value growth of this category is high. On the other hand, some major export products include many items whose export value is growing despite declining volume because of rising price (volume-/unit price+ or volume-/unit price++) (paints, etc.).


245

Table II-1-1-3-45 Trends in price and volume (exports to the United States; materials sector) (Items in the growing volume category)

Japan Germany

Exports to the United

States

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




Share of sub-items w

ith grow

ing volume (2014)

Share of sub-items w




olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(Material sector)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


59.5%

56.6%

1.7%

17.6%

11.7%

28.4%

373%

96%

54%

-25%

58.1%

50.0%

7.0%

16.2%

19.0%

16.0%

123%

93%

105%

13%

Inorganic chemicals

37.4%

53.2%

3.1%

10.3%

11.5%

12.5%

284%

171%

74%

86%

37.5%

45.0%

0.8%

19.3%

10.0%

7.5%

78%

62%

54%

21%

Organic monomers

25.8%

59.7%

1.3%

2.9%

4.1%

17.5%

56%

28%

100%

-33%

65.7%

36.0%

0.7%

23.7%

17.7%

23.5%

12%

148%

57%

-17%

Organic polymers

35.7%

77.1%

1.0%

23.5%

5.8%

5.4%

48%

43%

62%

63%

75.5%

48.3%

1.2%

30.3%

34.9%

9.1%

189%

73%

45%

265%

Plastic films, etc.

63.1%

22.8%

0.0%

8.3%

26.0%

28.8%

252%

20%

36%

35.9%

70.5%

6.0%

16.6%

7.8%

5.5%

206%

15%

111%

76%


44.4%

47.1%

0.0%

29.5%

8.1%

6.9%

47%

112%

47%

79.2%

58.4%

1.7%

36.8%

30.0%

10.8%

229%

41%

21%

21%

Paints 41.9%

55.4%

0.0%

0.1%

31.0%

10.7%

-80%

43%

41%

46.1%

73.7%

0.0%

19.8%

12.3%

13.9%

56%

171%

45%


66.1%

34.8%

0.0%

1.8%

64.3%

0.1%

48%

51%

-98%

13.3%

85.7%

1.3%

0.0%

0.1%

11.9%

166%

-87%

-39%


56.8%

88.6%

0.0%

49.1%

3.9%

3.8%

69%

62%

94%

141%

45.9%

55.1%

1.4%

26.9%

13.0%

4.7% 8% 94

% 80%

108%

Tires (new) 22.7%

36.6%

1.1%

0.0%

21.6%

0.0%

119%

106%

80.9%

100.0%

0.0%

80.9%

0.0%

0.0%

421%

83%

48%

Medicines 38.4%

78.7%

33.5%

0.0%

4.9%

0.0%

1718%

62%

82.4%

84.2%

2.1%

67.2%

0.9%

12.2%

138%

94%

392%

-7%


55.2%

66.0%

1.3%

32.3%

11.1%

10.5%

103%

73%

58%

142%

65.4%

49.7%

2.5%

19.9%

7.4%

35.6%

201%

69%

36%

77%

Man-made fibers

58.3%

62.2%

0.3%

43.2%

2.6%

12.2%

70%

93%

237%

102%

75.6%

35.3%

0.1%

14.1%

20.0%

41.4%

123%

58%

-9%

341%

246

Iron and steel

46.6%

25.2%

0.7%

3.1%

33.8%

9.0%

285%

61%

79%

136%

68.8%

31.5%

0.8%

19.7%

31.7%

16.7%

686%

23%

78%

160%


43.9%

40.0%

0.9%

2.8%

27.8%

12.4%

46%

108%

31%

44%

68.9%

35.3%

0.3%

11.0%

38.3%

19.3%

764%

40%

59%

35%


86.3%

4.1%

0.5%

0.5%

3.4%

81.9%

175%

85%

58%

67%

61.8%

50.3%

19.0%

5.3%

-7.0%

44.4%

60%

89%

-259%

91%

Copper 65.3%

45.2%

0.3%

30.9%

17.3%

16.8%

74%

661%

53%

36%

81.3%

16.7%

0.4%

9.2%

60.4%

11.3%

70%

104%

93%

44%

Aluminum 77.5%

18.6%

0.0%

5.5%

71.8%

0.3%

-53%

86%

169%

1858%

53.9%

18.0%

0.0%

6.4%

14.7%

32.7% 9% 2% 93

% -7%

Nickel 86.4%

22.3%

3.9%

8.9%

11.6%

62.1%

28%

350%

-20%

1641%

27.6%

40.5%

0.0%

4.8%

0.0%

22.8%

47%

10%


80.0%

37.7%

0.0%

28.6%

3.8%

47.5%

60%

51%

11%

52.4%

84.3%

11.1%

28.8%

4.9%

7.6%

156%

92%

36%

13%

Glass 53.

3% 69.2%

35.1%

10.2%

5.9%

2.1%

327%

19%

240%

-21%

38.9%

57.9%

0.1%

10.3%

4.0%

24.6%

444%

106%

155%

41%


Japan Germany

Exports to the United States

Share of items w


e (2014)



Share of items w


e (2014)



olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

( Material sector)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


38.6% 17.4%

19.1%

1.3%

0.8% 6% 7% -23

% -46% 24.5% 5.1

% 17.0%

2.1%

0.3% 4% 34

% -26%

-86%

Inorganic chemicals 44.3% 13.

3% 20.0%

5.4%

5.6%

45%

-19%

13%

-58% 32.5% 6.3

% 15.1%

4.1%

7.1% -8% -11

% 0% -11%

Organic polymers 47.9% 1.0%

35.9%

11.0%

0.0%

-34%

10%

23%

-78% 15.6% 0.1

% 10.6%

3.9%

1.0%

-88%

-22%

-13%

-55%

Paints 42.3% 0.0%

39.5%

2.8%

0.0%

24%

-58% 53.9% 10.

6% 43.3%

0.0%

0.0%

74% 9%


42.0% 1.8%

37.4%

2.4%

0.4%

-31%

16% 9% -49

% 31.1% 2.7%

4.7%

23.5%

0.2%

31%

15%

20%

-57%

Tires (new) 77.3% 0.0%

35.4%

41.8%

0.0%

-88% 7% -9

% 18.8% 0.0%

18.8%

0.0%

0.0%

-58%

-6%

-93%

Articles of iron or steel 47.3% 12.

5% 21.3%

11.8%

1.7% 7% 12

% 19%

-56% 17.9% 11.

4% 2.6%

3.9%

0.0%

-9%

-14%

-7%

-98%

Glass 41.9% 11.5%

8.2%

22.1%

0.0%

57%

-14%

-44%

-91% 36.9% 20.

8% 8.6%

3.5%

4.0%

11%

-19%

38%

-57%

247

Machinery sector Regarding the growing volume category concerning major export products in the machinery sector, the share of items in the growing volume/other price category (price is neither rising nor declining) (volume+/price±) is large with regard to general machinery and electrical machinery in the case of Japan (Table II-1-1-3-46). In the case of Germany, the shares of not only items in the growing volume/other price category (volume+/price±) but also items in the growing volume/falling price category (volume+/unit price-) are large with regard to many major export products. Concerning vehicle-related products (passenger cars, trucks, tractors and motor vehicle parts), there is not much difference between the two countries in the price trend (there is a significant difference between the two countries in the volume trend concerning trucks and tractors (volume is increasing in Germany but decreasing in Japan). A comparison between the two countries in terms of the export value growth of items with growing volume in major price trend categories shows that Japan outperforms Germany with regard to some major export products (bulldozers, gearboxes, cocks/valves, integrated circuits, electronic parts for internal combustion engines, passenger cars and aircraft parts)77. In particular, the share of items in the price surging category (volume+/unit price++) is large with regard to cocks/valves, and the rate of export value growth is high. On the other hand, with regard to some major export products, the share of items for which export value is growing despite declining volume because of rising price is large (Japan: testing and measuring instruments (electronic, electric and industrial), trucks, etc.). Table II-1-1-3-46 Trends in price and volume (exports to the United States; machinery sector)

(Items in the growing volume category)

Japan Germany


States

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




(2011-2014 / 2005 to 2008)

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




(2011-2014 / 2005 to 2008) V

olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(Machinery)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


39.1%

44.3%

3.5%

7.1%

8.7%

19.8%

134%

26%

80%

-11%

63.7%

33.7%

0.4%

12.6%

24.9%

25.8%

38%

24%

43%

18%

Machine tool 54.6%

50.8%

0.0%

6.1%

44.9%

3.6%

17%

20%

-35%

73.7%

43.2%

22.5%

0.5%

47.4%

3.3%

84% -9% 49

% -45%

Bulldozers 91.3%

27.1%

0.0%

18.6%

72.7%

0.0%

24%

30%

60.0%

38.8%

0.0%

0.0%

60.0%

0.0% 6%


248

Ball bearings 39.8%

38.7%

0.0%

5.4%

15.0%

19.5%

183%

67%

80%

75.9%

6.7%

0.0%

0.0%

39.1%

36.8%

28%

49%

Gearboxes 78.4%

38.0%

0.0%

17.1%

23.6%

37.7%

83%

28%

59%

83.5%

12.1%

0.0%

7.3%

8.7%

67.5%

62%

60%

17%


10.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

10.1%

0.0% -

75.4%

7.3%

0.0%

0.0%

75.4%

0.0% -

Cocks and valves

81.3%

40.0%

21.3%

0.0%

55.5%

4.5%

81%

19%

27%

76.4%

28.6%

0.0%

5.0%

47.8%

23.6%

30%

20% 6%


46.9%

30.2%

1.0%

8.1%

31.9%

5.9%

119%

68%

33%

33%

76.2%

23.4%

0.5%

7.8%

27.3%

40.7%

191%

60%

78%

73%

Condensers 73.1%

24.6%

0.0%

0.0%

72.3%

0.7% 9% -25

% 54.6%

48.4%

0.0%

15.9%

0.0%

38.7%

84%

89%

Integrated circuits

46.9%

28.6%

0.0%

0.0%

46.9%

0.0%

115%

98.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

40.8%

57.2%

109%

43%


90.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

8.0%

82.4%

16% 6%

91.9%

54.0%

0.0%

45.9%

14.9%

31.1%

73% 9% 248

% Transmission apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc.

0.0%

98.8%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

99.4%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

99.4%

482%


54.6%

45.4%

0.0%

0.0%

51.4%

3.2% 3% 73

% 50.0%

8.3%

0.0%

5.5%

6.6%

37.8% -1% -26

% 49%


63.3%

28.1%

0.0%

1.9%

35.6%

25.7%

43%

47% 1%

68.9%

31.1%

0.0%

0.0%

41.7%

27.2%

-66%

-19%

-7%


45.1%

62.9%

8.8%

21.3%

8.0%

7.1%

207%

37% -1% 5%

36.2%

70.4%

0.9%

17.3%

3.8%

14.2%

187%

61%

62%

27%


10.0%

93.9%

0.0%

6.1%

0.0%

3.9%

81%

42%

56.5%

67.2%

0.0%

23.7%

2.1%

30.8%

97%

45%

-16%

Medical equipment

78.4%

5.0%

0.0%

0.0%

51.4%

27.0%

-1%

-32%

11.5%

33.0%

0.0%

0.0%

2.0%

9.5%

-16%

29% -1%

Passenger cars

60.4%

99.7%

0.0%

60.4%

0.0%

0.0%

613%

30%

359%

100.0%

95.2%

0.3%

94.8%

4.2%

0.7%

653%

23%

1069%

526%

Cargo motor cars

0.5%

100.0%

0.0%

0.5%

0.0%

0.0% -3%

99.3%

79.9%

0.0%

79.9%

0.0%

19.4%

132%

-10%

Buses 0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tractors 14.3%

100.0%

0.0%

14.3%

0.0%

0.0%

-37%

96.5%

100.0%

0.0%

96.5%

0.0%

0.0%

48%

249

Motor vehicle parts

60.0%

26.5%

0.0%

11.4%

10.2%

38.4%

15840%

48% -7% 16

% 63.3%

28.5%

0.0%

9.0%

0.9%

53.3%

107% -7% 31

% 75%

Bicycle parts 23.9%

79.8%

0.0%

16.1%

7.1%

0.7%

90%

659%

-33%

80.7%

32.7%

0.0%

25.2%

4.3%

51.1%

20%

33%

67%


99.7%

0.0%

71.6%

0.0%

0.2%

143%

122%

41.6%

57.5%

0.0%

0.2%

39.8%

1.7%

50%

-2%

149%

Railway parts 100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

15%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Marine vessels

71.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

71.6%

0.0%

-36%

23.0%

69.6%

23.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

69%

250


Japan Germany


Share of items w


e (2014)



(2011-2014 / 2005- 2008)

Share of items w


e (2014)


Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005- 2008) V

olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(Machinery)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Ball bearings 60.1%

0.0%

33.3%

26.7%

0.0%

22%

19%

24.1%

0.0%

6.7%

13.9%

3.4% 0% 38

% -23%

Integrated circuits 28.6%

0.0%

28.6%

0.0%

0.0%

16%

-100%

2.0%

0.0%

0.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-59%

-100%


99.5%

0.0%

98.3%

0.0%

1.2% 2% -99%

0.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.6%

0.0%

-61%

-100%


44.7%

1.9%

42.8%

0.0%

0.0%

-13% 8%

50.0%

1.2%

1.5%

47.3%

0.0%

183%

-12%

14%


54.4%

28.9%

4.0%

21.4%

0.2% 3% -40

% 14% -96%

38.1%

15.9%

14.3%

7.2%

0.7%

25%

38%

50%

-67%


88.4%

65.6%

20.5%

2.3%

0.0%

59%

-17%

51%

25.3%

16.5%

8.7%

0.0%

0.0% 6% 5%

Medical equipment 21.5%

0.0%

5.0%

16.5%

0.0%

-21%

47%

78.5%

3.4%

29.5%

45.5%

0.1% 8% -2

% -11% 20%

Cargo motor cars 99.4%

22.0%

77.3%

0.0%

0.0%

66%

-12%

0.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.3%

-91%

Bicycle parts 76.1%

0.0%

63.8%

12.3%

0.0% 2% -16

% 41% 19.3%

0.0%

7.4%

5.2%

6.7%

-36%

-30%

-37%

Other products78 We will also look at product subgroups of particular interest included in the above-mentioned major export product groups in the raw materials and machinery sectors and in smaller groups. For example, concerning the growing volume category, there are many items in the growing volume/other price category (volume+/price±) and the growing volume/falling price category (volume+/unit price-) in the case of Japan (Table II-1-1-3-47). Concerning the growing volume/falling price category, export value is declining for some items but increasing for others, including polarizing material sheets, carbon fibers, medical sample testing instruments and kitchen knives/knives. Concerning some other products, the share of items for which export value is growing despite

78 As for other products, see the footnote in II-1-1-3(3)(C).

251

declining volume because of rising price (processing machines (for deburring and other usages)) is large. In the case of Germany, while there is not an uneven distribution of items by price trend category, there are somewhat more “other” products concerning which the share of items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+) is larger than in the case of Japan.

Table II-1-1-3-47 Trends in price and volume (exports to the United States; other items) (Items in the growing volume category)

Japan Germany


States

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w


Share of items (2014) Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Share of item

s with grow

ing export volum

e (2014)

Share of items w




olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e + V

olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(Other items)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++ Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Acrylic polymers

11.6%

88.4%

0.0%

0.0%

11.6% 0.0%

44.3%

98.9%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 98.

9% 0.0%

41%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0

% 29%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 0.0%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0

% -28%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 100.0%

-14%

Carbon fibers

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0

% 40%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 100.0%

469%


15.4%

3.1%

0.0%

3.1% 0.0% 12.3

% 644.4%

254.1%

74.2%

25.4%

0.0%

20.7%

8.7%

44.8%

-2%

59.3%

609%


78.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

62.4%

15.6%

107% 40%

47.2%

45.1%

0.0% 0.0% 32.

9% 14.3%

255%

2527%


49.1%

17.0%

3.3%

0.9% 0.0% 44.9

% 63%

1995%

43%

86.1%

13.3%

0.0% 9.1% 41.

2% 35.8%

46%

39%

10%

Refined copper

62.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

62.7% 0.0%

41%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 0.0%

252


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0% 0.0%

-20%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 0.0%

Injection- molding machines for lubber and plastic

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 2% 0.0%

100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 0.0%

Industrial robots

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0

% -4% 100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

49%


65.4%

90.7%

0.0%

62.5% 0.0% 2.9%

20% 42%

77.3%

45.7%

23.0% 0.0% 50.

4% 3.9%

86%

37%

-34%


99.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

97.9% 1.7%

21%

-53%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 92.

5% 7.5%

45%

-48%


90.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

62.7%

28.0% 3% -47

% 89.9%

10.1%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 89.9%

10%

Optical fibers

57.8%

42.2%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 57.8

% 6% 74.4%

14.1%

0.0% 0.0% 74.

4% 0.0%

101%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0

% -34%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 100.0%

50%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0

% 2320%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-16%

Pruning shears

71.8%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

71.8% 0.0%

88%

90.0%

100.0%

0.0%

90.0%

0.0%

0.0%

118%


93.1%

0.3%

0.0%

0.0%

48.3%

44.8%

48%

49%

3.1%

76.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 3.1%

-28%

22%

Ink cartridges, etc.

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0

% -73%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 0.0%

Optical microscopes

10.3%

3.4%

0.0%

0.0%

10.3% 0.0%

168.7%

63.6%

8.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 63.6%

31%

253


Japan Germany


Share of items w


e (2014)



Share of items w


e (2014)



olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(Other items)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Petroleum resin, etc. 100.0%

0.0%

12.0%

88.0%

0.0%

44%

11%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


42.8%

0.0%

7.5%

29.5%

5.8%

-28%

68%

-46%

6.0%

4.1%

0.0%

1.9%

0.0%

15%

-10%

-100%


21.1%

19.4%

1.8%

0.0%

0.0%

31%

-82%

5.1%

3.9%

1.2%

0.0%

0.0%

10%

-18%

Endoscopes 100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

55%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Pruning shears 28.2%

0.0%

0.0%

28.2%

0.0%

27%

10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-66%


0.0%

3.4%

86.3%

0.0%

18%

31%

8.2%

8.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-66%


92.8%

0.1%

15.1%

14.2%

63.4%

-12%

-29%

27%

-6%

50.8%

48.7%

0.2%

1.9%

0.0%

-16%

-66%

-58%

-74%

Rolled photographic film 100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

<Exports to the United States: Reference 2> Major export products by sector～comparison with world prices A comparison with world prices shows that export value is growing for items in the “high price” category with regard to some major export products (and other products), mainly in the raw materials sector (rubber/rubber products (excluding new tires), articles of iron and steel products, integrated circuits, aircraft parts, machining centers, etc. for metal processing, acrylic polymers, etc.) (Figure II-1-1-3-48). Concerning some major export products (and other products), overall export value is growing (or staying flat) as the export value of items in the low price category and the “other” category is growing while that of items in the high price category is not (nonferrous metals (others), semiconductor devices, gear boxes, passenger cars, etc.79). 79 In the case of passenger cars, it is possible that the yen’s weakening has had an impact given that the share of the “other” category increased in 2014 in particular. In addition, it should be noted that the use of the comparison at the six-digit HS code level may be affecting the price trend (as the tariff classification of passenger cars is more detailed than the classification of other items, the increase of the share of high-value-added products in overall exports may be recorded as an increase for products with a different tariff number unlike in the case of many other export products. In a comparison with world prices, Japanese

254

Figure II-1-1-3-48 Item structures of Japan's exports to the United States (by comparison with

world prices; major exports items, etc.)

passenger cars are sometimes classified under the “other” category,” rather than the “high price” category, resulting in a decline in the share of the “high price” category. Japanese export prices of passenger cars in major six-digit HS code categories are moving almost in line with world prices, while at the four-digit HS code level, Japanese prices are on an uptrend compared with world prices.

(Billion dollars)

High price




Others

Japan’s exports to the United States (materials 1)

Che

mic

al a

nd

plas

tic p

rodu

cts

(oth

ers)

Inor

gani

c ch

emic

als

Org

anic

m

onom

ers

Org

anic

pol

ymer

s

Plas

tic fi

lms,

etc.

Prod

ucts

rela

ted

to p

aint

s an

d co

lorin

g m

atte

r, ex

clud

ing

pain

ts

Pain

ts

Phot

ogra

phic

m

ater

ials

Rub

ber a

nd

rubb

er p

rodu

cts

excl

udin

g ne

w

tires

Tire

s (ne

w)

Med

icin

es

255

(Billion dollars)

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to the United States. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the United States. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the United States' total import value from Japan.



Others

Japan’s exports to the United States (materials 2)

Textiles and

clothing, excluding man-made

fibers

Man- made fibers

Iron and steel


Non- ferrous metal

(others)

Copper Aluminum Nickel Tools and

cutlery of base metal

Glass

256

(Billion dollars)

High price

Notes: 1. The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 1.05 times

higher than the average international import price to the United States. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the United States. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the United States' total import value from Japan.



Others

Japan’s exports to the United States (general machinery)

General machinery

(others)

Machine tool


Ball bearings

Gearboxes Cocks and valves

Sem

icon

duct

or-m

anuf

actu

ring

appa

ratu

s

257

(Billion dollars)

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to the United States. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the United States. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the United States' total import value from Japan.



Others

Japan’s exports to the United States (Electric instruments/precision instruments)

Elec

tric

inst

rum

ents

(o

ther

s)

Con

dens

ers

Inte

grat

ed c

ircui

ts

Sem

icon

duct

or

devi

ces

Tran

smis

sion

ap

para

tus f

or

radi

o-br

oadc

astin

g or

te

levi

sion

, etc

. Sw

itche

s, et

c.(o

r sw

itchi

ng o

f el

ectri

cal c

ircui

ts)

Elec

troni

c m

achi

nery

for

inte

rnal

-com

bust

ion

engi

nes

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts (o

ther

s)

Test

ing

and

mea

surin

g in

stru

men

ts

(ele

ctro

nic,

ele

ctric

an

d in

dust

rial)

Med

ical

equ

ipm

ent

258

(Billion dollars)

High price




Others

Japan’s exports to the United States (Transportation equipment)

Passenger cars

Cargo motor cars


Bicycle parts

Aircraft parts

Railway parts

Marine vessels

259

(Million dollars)

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that the import price from Japan to the United States is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to the United States. The term “low price” means that the import price from Japan to the United States is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the United States. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the United States' total import value from Japan.



Others

Japan’s exports to the United States (other items 1)

Iodi

ne

Acr

ylic

pol

ymer

s

Poly

ethy

lene

te

reph

thal

ate

Petro

leum

resi

n, e

tc.

Pola

rizin

g m

ater

ial s

heet

s

Mat

eria

ls o

f ele

ctro

nic

parts

Car

bon

fiber

s Fla

t rolle

d prod

ucts o

f stee

l or n

on-al

loyed

ste

el (of

a wi

dth of

600 m

m or

more

) Fla

t rolle

d prod

ucts o

f othe

r non

-alloy

ed

steel

(of a

width

of 60

0 mm

or m

ore)

Iron

and

stee

l pip

es a

nd

thos

e w

ith h

ollo

w p

rofil

es

Ref

ined

cop

per

Nic

kel a

lloy

pipe

s and

pi

pe jo

ints

Liqu

id lu

ster

, etc

.

Ink

Dev

elop

ed p

hoto

grap

hic

film

Rol

led

phot

ogra

phic

film

260

(Million dollars)

High price


higher than the average international import price to the United States. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the United States. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the United States' total import value from Japan.

2. Data for lithium ion storage batteries, car navigation systems and wireless base stations exclude those in 2005.



Others


Indu

stria

l rob

ots

Proc

essi

ng m

achi

nes

usin

g la

sers

, etc

.

Proc

essi

ng m

achi

nes

(grid

ing

mac

hine

s, et

c.)

Mac

hini

ng c

ente

rs fo

r m

etal

pro

cess

ing,

etc

.

Elec

tric

furn

aces

for

indu

stria

l and

phy

sica

l an

d ch

emic

al u

se

Inje

ctio

n-m

oldi

ng

mac

hine

s for

lubb

er

and

plas

tic

Opt

ical

fibe

rs

Liqu

id c

ryst

al

devi

ces

Lith

ium

ion

stor

age

batte

ries

Car

nav

igat

ion

syst

ems

Wire

less

bas

e st

atio

ns

261

With regard to some of the major export products (and other products) concerning which export value is growing for items in the high price category, the share of items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+ or volume+/unit price++) is large according to the volume and price trend comparison that was used in <Exports to the United States: Reference 1> (rubber/rubber products, man-made filaments, glass, aircraft parts, etc.). This suggests the possibility that export value is growing without price competition (Table II-1-1-3-49). Meanwhile, in each sector, there are major export products (and other products) for which overall export value is growing due to the export value growth of items in the low price category or the “other” category (Table II-1-1-3-50). With regard to injection-moulding machines and passenger cars, which are among such major export products, the share of items in the rising price category is large and the export value of items in the “other” category is growing. One reason why the low price and “other” categories are growing despite the uptrend in prices may be the possibility that Japanese export prices are becoming relatively low because of increased imports of high-price products from other countries and the yen’s weakening.

(Million dollars)

High price


higher than the average international import price to the United States. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to the United States is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the United States. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the United State' total import value from Japan.



Others


Dev

ices

for m

easu

ring

sem

icon

duct

ors a

nd

ICs

Ultr

ason

ic sc

anni

ng

appa

ratu

s

Med

ical

sam

ple

test

ing

inst

rum

ents

Endo

scop

es

Prun

ing

shea

rs

Saw

s Kitc

hen

kniv

es a

nd

kniv

es

Ink

cartr

idge

s, et

c.

Stat

ione

ry

(bal

l-poi

nt

pens

, pen

cils

, cr

ayon

s, et

c.

Opt

ical

m

icro

scop

es

Sani

tary

pr

oduc

ts

(dia

pers

, etc

.)

262

Table II-1-1-3-49 Major export items, etc. concerning which the export value of the higher price category compared to world prices is increasing (exports to the United States)

Comparison with world prices (structures by item) (Japan to

the United States)


price” category

Items with growing (or

remaining) export value due to the growth of the “low price” or


Share of items with volume +

and price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and price-

(2014)

Share of items with

rising price

(2014)

Chemical and plastic products (others) ○ 19.4% 28.4% 56.6%

Organic monomers × (Declining) ○ 4.2% 17.5% 59.7%

Organic polymers ○ ○ 24.6% 5.4% 77.1%

Paints ○ 0.1% 10.7% 55.4%

Photographic materials ○ 1.8% 0.1% 34.8%


Man-made fibers ○ 43.5% 12.2% 62.2%

Iron and steel × ○ 3.8% 9.0% 25.2%

Articles of iron or steel ○ 3.7% 12.4% 40.0%

Copper ○ 31.2% 16.8% 45.2%

Aluminum ○ 5.5% 0.3% 18.6%

Nickel ○ 12.8% 62.1% 22.3%

Glass ○ 45.3% 2.1% 69.2%

Printing machines ○ - - -

Ball bearings × ○ 5.4% 19.5% 38.7%

Cocks and valves ○ ○ 21.3% 4.5% 40.0%

Integrated circuits × 0.0% 0.0% 28.6%

Electronic machinery for internal-combustion engines ○ ○ 1.9% 25.7% 28.1%

Precision instruments (others) ○ (Growing) 30.0% 7.1% 62.9%

Aircraft parts ○ 71.6% 0.2% 99.7%

Railway parts ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Acrylic polymers ○ 0.0% 0.0% 88.4%

Petroleum resin, etc. ○ 0.0% 0.0% 12.0%


× (Declining) ○ 3.1% 12.3% 3.1%


× ○ 0.0% 15.6% 0.0%

Iron and steel pipes and those with hollow profiles ○ 4.2% 44.9% 17.0%

Refined copper ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Industrial robots ○ (Growing) 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Processing machines (griding machines, etc.) × ○ 62.5% 2.9% 90.7%

Machining centers for metal processing, etc. ○ 0.0% 1.7% 0.0%

Endoscopes ○ (Growing) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pruning shears ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Optical microscopes ○ 0.0% 0.0% 3.4%

263

Comparison with world prices (structures by item) (Japan to

the United States)


price” category

Items with growing (or

remaining) export value due to the growth of the “low price” or


Share of items with volume +

and price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and price-

(2014)

Share of items with

rising price

(2014)


Liquid luster, etc. ○ (Growing) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Developed photographic film ○ (Growing) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Table II-1-1-3-50 Major export items, etc. concerning which the export value of the lower price

or other category compared to world prices is increasing (exports to the United States)


prices (structures by item) (Japan to the United States)


price” category

Items remaining

flat in export


price” category


price” category

Items with growing

(or remaining)

export value due

to the growth of the “low price” or “other”

category.

Share of

items with

volume + and

price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and

price- (2014)

Share of


(2014)

Inorganic chemicals ○ ○ ○ 13.4% 12.5% 53.2%

Plastic films, etc. ○ ○ ○ 8.3% 28.8% 22.8%

Non-ferrous metal (others) × ○ ○ 1.0% 81.9% 4.1%


× (Declining) ○ ○ 28.6% 47.5% 37.7%

Bulldozers × ○ 18.6% 0.0% 27.1%

Gearboxes × ○ ○ 17.1% 37.7% 38.0%

Condensers × ○ ○ 0.0% 0.7% 24.6%

Semiconductor devices × (Declining) ○ ○ 0.0% 82.4% 0.0%

Switches, etc. (or switching of electrical circuits) × ○ ○ 0.0% 3.2% 45.4%


× (Declining) ○ ○ 6.1% 3.9% 93.9%

Passenger cars × ○ ○ 60.4% 0.0% 99.7%


× (Declining) ○ ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Injection-molding machines for lubber and plastic ○ ○ ○ 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Medical sample testing instruments × ○ 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Rolled photographic film × ○ 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% (C) Exports to the EU (Japan and the United States) Next, we will compare exports to the EU from Japan and the United States concerning the eight major sectors. First, we will make a comparison concerning the growing volume category (Table II-1-1-3-51). The United States outperforms Japan in terms of the share of items in the growing volume category in

264

many sectors. In particular, the share of such items is much higher for the United States than for Japan in the chemicals and plastics, iron and steel products, nonferrous metals, and transportation equipment sectors. On the other hand, the share is higher for Japan than for the United States in the precision machinery sector. As for the volume-price combination, the share of items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+ or volume+/unit price++) is not large either for Japan or the United States (textiles and textile articles is the sector with the largest share of items in this category for both countries, but the share is only around 17% for Japan and around 28% for the United States). On the other hand, the share of items in the growing volume/falling price category (volume+/unit price-) is relatively large at 30% for nonferrous metals and general machinery in the case of the United States.

Table II-1-1-3-51 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to EU; major eight sectors; items in the growing volume category)

Exports to EU (Major eight sectors)

Che

mic

al a

nd

plas

tic p

rodu

cts

Text

iles a

nd

clot

hing

Arti

cles

of i

ron

or st

eel

Non

-fer

rous

m

etal

Gen

eral

m

achi

nery

Elec

tric

inst

rum

ents

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts

Tran

spor

tatio

n eq

uipm

ent

Japa

n






value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Volume + Price ++ 236% 119% 167% 91% 37% 205% 146% -26% Volume + Price + 114% 51% 123% 255% 67% 82% 64% 18% Volume + Price +/- 54% 60% 36% 24% -6% 59% 51% 69% Volume + Price - -4% 60% 54% 82% 25% 7% 20% 60%

Uni

ted

Stat

es






value (2011-2014 / 2005-2008)

Volume + Price ++ 386% 78% 58% 93% 40% -1% 306% 289% Volume + Price + 44% 54% 68% 47% 42% 80% 55% 135% Volume + Price +/- 64% 85% 53% 13% 21% 86% 66% 55% Volume + Price - 30% 44% 25% 33% 3% 26% 7% -6%

The share of items in the declining volume category is larger for Japan than for the United States in all of the eight major sectors except for precision machinery (Table II-1-1-3-52). Meanwhile, in the case of Japan, export value is decreasing for items in the declining volume/rising price category

265

(volume-/unit price+ or volume-/unit price++) in most sectors.

Table II-1-1-3-52 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to EU; major eight sectors; items in the declining volume category)

Exports to EU (Major eight sectors)

Che

mic

al a

nd

plas

tic p

rodu

cts

Text

iles a

nd

clot

hing

Arti

cles

of i

ron

or st

eel

Non

-fer

rous

m

etal

Gen

eral

m

achi

nery

Elec

tric

inst

rum

ents

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts

Tran

spor

tatio

n eq

uipm

ent


volume (2014) 46.0% 43.2% 54.7% 34.1% 70.1% 67.0% 28.9% 61.9%

Japa

n




Volume - Price ++ -8% -26% -39% -60% -45% -25% 0% -64% Volume - Price + -12% -16% -9% -43% -41% -17% -17% -44% Volume - Price +/- -23% -21% -19% -33% -6% -30% -9% -44% Volume - Price - -52% -79% -43% -41% -62% -81% -65% -69%

Share of items with declining export volume (2014) 18.7% 34.8% 18.8% 30.1% 55.5% 56.2% 51.3% 30.3%

Uni

ted

Stat

es Share of items

(2014)



Volume - Price ++ 3% -6% -18% -14% -7% -15% 29% 21% Volume - Price + -7% -18% -39% -4% -22% 0% -1% -44% Volume - Price +/- -13% -12% -46% -7% 7% -4% 2% -17% Volume - Price - -68% -54% -49% -34% -70% -66% -33% -59%

A comparison with world prices shows that concerning items in the high price category, export value is growing in some sectors (chemicals and plastics, iron and steel products, nonferrous metals and general machinery) and decreasing in others (electrical machinery, precision machinery and transportation equipment) (Figure II-1-1-3-53 and Table II-1-1-3-54). Concerning general machinery, export value is growing for items in the low price category but increasing for items in the high price category. According to Figure II-1-1-3-55, the export value is growing for the high price category in all sectors in the United States.

266

Figure II-1-1-3-53 Item structures of Japan's exports to EU (by comparison with world prices)


(structures by item) (Japan to EU)


price” category

Items with

growing export

value in the

“high price”

category

Items remaining

flat in export


price” category


price” category

Items with growing export

value (or remaining flat) due to the growth of the “low price” or “other”

category.

Share of

items with

volume + and

price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and

price- (2014)

Share of


(2014)

Chemical and plastic products ○ ○ 6.9% 12.3% 46.8% Textiles and clothing ○ ○ ○ 16.9% 12.1% 42.6% Articles of iron or steel ○ ○ 5.4% 6.5% 33.4% Non-ferrous metal × ○ 12.6% 19.3% 29.8%

General machinery ○ (Growing) ○ 12.7% 9.7% 43.1%

Electric instruments ○ ○ 7.5% 2.9% 52.6%

Precision instruments × (Declining) ○ 13.0% 18.9% 25.6%

Transportation equipment × ○ 14.9% 8.4% 44.4%

(Million dollars)

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to EU is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to EU. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to EU is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to EU. This graph shows the share and value of target items in EU’s total import value from Japan.



Others

Japan’s exports to EU (major eight sectors)


Textiles and

clothing


Non-ferrous metal

General machinery




267

Table II-1-1-3-54 List of trends of item structures of Japan's exports to EU by comparison with world prices




price” category

Items with

growing export

value in the

“high price”

category

Items remaining

flat in export


price” category


price” category

Items with growing export

value (or remaining flat) due to the growth of the “low price” or “other”

category.

Share of

items with

volume + and

price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and

price- (2014)

Share of


(2014)

Chemical and plastic products ○ ○ 6.9% 12.3% 46.8% Textiles and clothing ○ ○ ○ 16.9% 12.1% 42.6% Articles of iron or steel ○ ○ 5.4% 6.5% 33.4% Non-ferrous metal × ○ 12.6% 19.3% 29.8%

General machinery ○ (Growing) ○ 12.7% 9.7% 43.1%

Electric instruments ○ ○ 7.5% 2.9% 52.6%

Precision instruments × (Declining) ○ 13.0% 18.9% 25.6%

Transportation equipment × ○ 14.9% 8.4% 44.4%

268

Figure II-1-1-3-55 Item structures of US exports to EU (by comparison with world prices)

<Exports to the EU: Reference 1> Major export products by sector～volume and price trend comparison (Japan and the United States) Materials sector With respect to the growing volume category regarding major export products in the raw materials sector, there are few major export products concerning which the share of items in the rising price category (volume+/unit price+ or volume+/unit price++) is large. However, there are some major export products concerning which the share of items in the surging price category (volume+/unit price++) is large (paints、nonferrous metals) (Table II-1-1-3-56). For the United States, there are more major export products concerning which the share of items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+) is larger than for Japan. A comparison between the two countries in terms of the export value growth of export products shows that the growth rate is higher for Japan than for the United States concerning some items (organic polymer, cosmetics, copper, aluminum, nickel, etc.)80. Concerning nickel in particular, the rate of export value growth is high for items in both the growing volume/rising price category 80This is a comparison between Japan and the United States in terms of the rate of export value growth of growing volume categories concerning which each of the two countries has a share of 20% or more.

(Billion dollars)

US exports to EU (major eight sectors)

High price

Notes: The term “high price” means that the import price from the United States to the EU is 1.05 times higher than the average international import price to the EU. The term “low price” means that the import price from the United States to the EU is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the EU. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the EU’s total import value from the United States.



Others


Textiles and

clothing


Non-ferrous metal

General machinery




269

(volume+/unit price+) and the growing volume/falling price category (volume+/unit price-). On the other hand, some major export products include many items for which export value is growing despite declining volume because of rising price (volume-/unit price+) (Japan: inorganic chemicals, etc.).

Table II-1-1-3-56 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to EU; materials sector) (Items in the growing volume category)

Japan United States

Exports to EU

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(material sector)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


21.0%

57.8%

0.6%

3.2%

6.7%

10.5%

91%

61%

109%

41%

44.5%

82.3%

0.7%

29.3%

2.8%

11.7%

336%

37%

83%

43%

Inorganic chemicals

33.9%

55.4%

6.6%

16.0%

5.3%

6.0%

196%

442%

74%

92%

30.1%

44.7%

2.4%

13.6%

7.4%

6.6%

212%

93%

56%

40%

Organic monomers

34.8%

39.2%

1.7%

6.5%

17.0%

9.5%

403%

159%

82%

-59%

57.6%

53.4%

1.8%

29.2%

14.5%

12.3%

460%

53%

256%

10%

Organic polymers

44.3%

43.6%

0.0%

8.0%

27.0%

9.3%

54%

49%

68%

61.3%

50.1%

0.0%

23.7%

29.4%

8.2%

41%

32%

69%

Plastic films, etc.

20.6%

44.7%

0.0%

5.4%

0.2%

14.9%

97% 3% 19

% 37.9%

76.0%

0.0%

19.7%

3.2%

14.9%

48%

19%

12%


81.0%

19.6%

0.0%

1.2%

66.9%

12.9%

66%

39% 9%

32.9%

57.2%

0.0%

9.4%

9.9%

13.5%

-10%

26%

26%

Paints 25.5%

35.4%

16.0%

0.0%

0.0%

9.5%

91%

-33%

26.1%

94.7%

0.0%

26.1%

0.0%

0.0%

38%


74.7%

27.0%

0.0%

4.8%

69.9%

0.0%

114%

51%

1.2%

93.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.2%

0.0%

54%

-93%


36.1%

63.6%

0.0%

18.8%

16.3%

0.9%

107%

60%

157%

67.2%

51.3%

0.0%

31.8%

33.7%

1.7%

37%

54%

46%

Tires (new) 8.8%

88.4%

0.0%

0.0%

8.8%

0.0%

24%

3.5%

20.6%

0.0%

3.1%

0.0%

0.4%

37%

-49%

Medicines 56.3%

34.6%

0.0%

5.9%

0.0%

50.4%

72%

22%

73.2%

25.1%

0.0%

2.0%

59.3%

11.8%

72%

58%

38%

Cosmetics 30.2%

9.2%

0.0%

7.5%

22.7%

0.0%

26%

36%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

79.8%

0.0%

5.9%

24%

11%

270


47.9%

62.1%

0.9%

20.5%

10.2%

16.3%

102%

32%

44%

71%

52.2%

57.5%

6.8%

23.0%

6.4%

15.9%

77%

42%

71%

35%

Man-made fibers

51.8%

29.7%

0.0%

13.9%

28.5%

9.4%

298%

74%

64%

51%

54.4%

59.4%

0.3%

22.4%

10.0%

21.6%

159%

127%

126%

78%

Iron and steel 40.

9% 44.2%

0.3%

3.3%

25.4%

12.0%

17%

53%

37%

145%

68.7%

19.3%

0.3%

8.4%

29.7%

30.4%

40%

66%

66%

31%


28.9%

28.3%

2.1%

4.2%

18.6%

4.0%

217%

176%

36% 9%

58.2%

29.1%

0.0%

13.2%

19.1%

25.8%

82%

69%

46%

22%


22.3%

21.3%

11.4%

4.7%

2.2%

4.0%

91%

55%

11%

159%

91.9%

11.9%

0.1%

6.7%

71.7%

13.4%

611%

91%

56%

46%

Copper 55.9%

21.3%

0.0%

0.0%

49.8%

6.1%

29%

46%

36.8%

65.5%

0.0%

14.9%

21.3%

0.6%

92%

43%

27%

82%

Aluminum 51.5%

51.0%

0.0%

6.3%

11.5%

33.6%

251% -1% 61

% 41.2%

79.2%

0.6%

24.4%

0.8%

15.3%

53%

37%

106%

75%

Nickel 74.8%

34.3%

0.0%

29.1%

0.0%

45.7%

252%

162%

73.5%

23.2%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

73.4%

33%

23%


72.0%

34.3%

0.0%

12.3%

25.5%

34.2% 7% 56

% 8% 45.3%

75.3%

0.2%

31.5%

6.9%

6.8%

48%

29% 2% 28

%

Glass 20.

1% 55.7%

8.9%

0.4%

1.3%

9.4%

519%

211%

36%

23%

30.6%

48.8%

10.4%

6.3%

5.5%

8.4%

32%

31%

-6%

71%


Japan United States

Exports to EU

Share of items w


e (2014)



Share of items w


e (2014)



olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(material sector)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Inorganic chemicals 53.3%

4.8%

25.7%

10.8%

12.0%

15%

36%

-23%

-49%

34.7%

3.7% 9.6% 6.6

% 14.7%

34%

-4%

-2%

-63%


63.5%

0.1%

44.4%

16.5%

2.5%

-40% 4% -8

% -37%

32.7%

2.7%

16.8%

12.3%

0.9% 4% -14

% -4%

-57%

Machinery sector With respect to the growing volume category regarding major export products in the machinery sector, the share of items in this category is small except for concerning a few products in the case of

271

both Japan and the United States, and the category is expanding to include items in the growing volume/rising price category and the growing volume/falling price category (Table II-1-1-3-57).. Concerning the growing volume category, the rate of export value growth of some items is higher for Japan than for the United States (motor vehicle parts and aircraft parts). Meanwhile, some major export products include many items whose export value is growing despite declining volume because of rising price (Japan: electrical capacitors, integrated circuits, transmission apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc., electronic parts for internal combustion engines, ball bearings, etc.).

Table II-1-1-3-57 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to EU; machinery sector) (Items in the growing volume category)

Japan United States

Exports to EU

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(Machinery)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


27.6%

48.1%

0.4%

12.8%

2.2%

12.2%

38%

24% 12% -2

% 36.6%

62.2%

0.6%

16.7%

7.1%

12.2%

102%

46% 2% 4%

Machine tool 39.2%

5.5%

0.1%

0.7%

38.0%

0.3%

-34%

-66%

-26%

-61%

78.9%

16.1%

0.2%

0.1%

30.9%

47.7%

-29%

244%

-12% 0%

Bulldozers 0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

30.0%

20.8%

17.7%

0.0%

0.0%

12.4%

-11%

-44%

Ball bearings 30.3%

84.8%

0.0%

25.7%

4.6%

0.0%

50% 18%

9.9%

55.6%

0.0%

9.9%

0.0%

0.0%

59%

Gearboxes 45.2%

35.7%

0.0%

13.5%

22.2%

9.5%

68%

30% 8%

17.6%

73.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

17.6%

10%


89.3%

75.1%

0.0%

64.6%

0.0%

24.6% - -

39.4%

57.3%

0.0%

0.0%

39.4%

0.0% -

Cocks and valves

21.0%

9.0%

0.0%

0.0%

13.1%

7.9% 4% 86

% 30.1%

69.7%

0.0%

17.6%

12.4%

0.0%

11%

76%


37.2%

39.1%

2.6%

10.8%

18.7%

5.1%

205%

89% 80% 6%

33.4%

42.8%

0.1%

15.0%

7.5%

10.8% -1% 80

% 89%

12%

Condensers 4.5%

58.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

4.5%

28%

44.3%

56.2%

0.0%

3.7%

40.7%

0.0%

63%

84%

Integrated circuits

0.0%

68.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

60.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


1.3%

29.3%

0.0%

0.0%

1.3%

0.0%

-68%

6.0%

60.6%

0.0%

0.0%

6.0%

0.0%

45%

272


0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

57.0%

34.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

57.0%

103%


27.6%

46.4%

0.0%

0.0%

27.6%

0.0%

22%

31.7%

63.4%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

31.7%

53%


32.5%

72.3%

0.0%

5.1%

27.5%

0.0%

28%

42%

28.8%

73.6%

0.0%

21.3%

7.5%

0.0%

100%

21%


64.6%

30.5%

3.2%

16.3%

34.3%

10.8%

148%

67%

52%

22%

26.8%

57.4%

0.4%

11.1%

1.6%

13.8%

306%

62%

34%

11%


83.5%

7.3%

0.9%

5.4%

17.5%

59.7%

125%

32% 33% 14

% 7.7%

43.5%

0.0%

0.6%

4.3%

2.8%

42%

19%

96%

Medical equipment

20.5%

26.5%

0.0%

4.5%

4.2%

11.7%

66% 92% 39

% 42.6%

64.8%

0.0%

11.8%

14.7%

16.1%

52%

72% 4%

Passenger cars 0.0

% 46.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

35.7%

35.1%

0.0%

34.4%

0.2%

1.1%

614%

1641%

16%

Cargo motor cars

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-26%

89.6%

9.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

89.6%

-32%

Buses 0.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.3%

-86%

0.0%

82.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tractors 98.0%

99.7%

0.0%

98.0%

0.0%

0.0%

37%

99.8%

100.0%

0.0%

99.8%

0.0%

0.0%

38%

Motor vehicle parts

50.4%

57.6%

0.0%

38.3%

12.1%

0.0%

16% 18%

55.5%

32.3%

6.7%

4.5%

39.7%

4.5%

4185%

-9% 7% 25

%

Bicycle parts 87.9%

2.7%

0.0%

2.5%

0.0%

85.4%

125%

34%

61.5%

55.2%

0.0%

16.7%

1.3%

43.4%

268%

222%

40%


9.7%

0.0%

0.0%

32.6%

57.7%

599%

68%

98.2%

5.0%

0.8%

2.6%

94.1%

0.7%

154%

47%

58%

30%

Railway parts 0.0%

22.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

34.8%

41.1%

0.0%

12.6%

22.2%

0.0% 2% -17

%

Marine vessels 0.0%

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-87%

0.3%

3.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.3%

-51%

273


Japan United States

Exports to EU

Share of items w


e (2014)



(2011-2014 / 2005- 2008)

Share of items w


e (2014)



olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

(Machinery)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Ball bearings 62.5%

0.0%

52.0%

10.5%

0.0%

19% 10%

90.1%

0.0%

45.6%

44.4%

0.0%

-12%

10%

Condensers 95.5%

58.7%

0.0%

36.0%

0.8%

47% -4% -51

% 12.9%

2.8%

7.0%

3.1%

0.0%

-53%

-14%

-23%

Integrated circuits

97.5%

0.0%

68.0%

24.5%

4.9%

49% 24% -88

% 50.3%

0.0%

10.2%

25.2%

14.8% 8% 23

% -89%


100.0%

0.2%

99.8%

0.0%

0.0%

-94%

28%

-100%

-100%

43.0%

0.0%

34.0%

9.1%

0.0%

58%

18%

-100%


72.4%

27.8%

18.5%

23.1%

3.0%

-36%

-49% 4% -48

% 66.6%

8.2%

53.5%

4.9%

0.0%

-15%

-17%

18%


67.5%

0.0%

67.2%

0.2%

0.0%

22%

-59%

60.5%

52.3%

0.0%

8.1%

0.0%

50%

-21%

Medical equipment

33.6%

9.0%

12.5%

11.7%

0.4%

52%

-30% 2% -47

% 39.6%

4.0%

31.3%

4.3%

0.0%

13% 0% -6

% Other products81 We will also look at product subgroups of particular interest included in the above-mentioned major export product groups in the materials and machinery sectors and in smaller groups. For example, concerning the growing volume category, there are many product groups in which the share of items in the falling price (volume+/unit price-) is large, whereas some product groups include many items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+) (industrial robots, X-ray apparatus for diagnostic use and stationery goods (ball-point pens, pencils/crayons, etc.) (Table II-1-1-3-58). A comparison of the rates of export value growth of items with growing volume classified by price trend category in the two countries shows that the rates of some items are higher for Japan than for the United States (petroleum resin, artificial joints, saws, kitchen knives/knives, etc.). There are also other products that include many items whose export value is growing despite declining volume because of rising price (iodine, stationery goods (ball-point pens, pencils/crayons, etc.), etc.). 81 As for other products, see the footnote in II-1-1-3(3)(C).

274

Table II-1-1-3-58 Trends in volume and price (Japan's exports to EU; other items)

(Items in the growing volume category)

Japan United States

Exports to EU

Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




Share of items w

ith growing


Share of items w




olume +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

Volum

e +

(Other items)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -


89.4%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 89.4%

123%

100.0%

22.7%

0.0%

22.7%

77.3%

0.0%

25%

15%

Carbon fibers

95.3%

4.7%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 95.3%

23%

94.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

94.8%

0.1%

64%

319%


18.9%

0.4%

0.0% 0.0% 2.7

% 16.2%

-28%

99%

1.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.0%

-8%


17.3%

71.5%

0.0%

13.5%

3.8%

0.0%

184%

703%

30.7%

17.8%

0.0%

4.6%

13.7%

12.3%

798%

59%

54%

Refined copper

68.4%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 68.4

% 0.0%

25%

8.0%

71.4%

0.3%

0.0%

0.8%

6.9%

92%

-85%

82%

Industrial robots

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

17%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


100.0%

1.9%

0.0% 1.9% 98.1

% 0.0%

-66%

-26%

99.5%

0.6%

0.6%

0.0%

0.0%

98.8%

-29%

8%

Optical fibers

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 40.2

% 59.8%

60% 5%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

52.4%

47.6%

39%

28%


64.3%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 64.3%

-62%

0.0%

51.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 100.0% 1%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

81%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

-10%

Artificial joints

100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 100.0%

112%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

80%

275

Pruning shears

70.7%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 70.7

% 0.0%

14%

60.1%

39.9%

0.0%

0.0%

60.1%

0.0%

21%

Saws 74.9%

29.6%

0.0%

24.5%

17.8%

32.6%

31%

56%

19%

57.8%

97.4%

0.0%

55.2%

0.0%

2.6%

11%

-5%


41.5%

52.3%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0

% 41.5%

52%

73.3%

30.8%

4.1%

0.0%

9.2%

59.9%

16%

-13%

12%

Optical microscopes

56.7%

42.1%

0.0% 0.0% 3.0

% 53.8%

80%

26%

12.0%

88.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

12.0%

100%


37.9%

85.8%

14.8%

22.5%

0.0%

0.6%

316%

30%

-21%

61.5%

35.9%

0.0%

0.0%

9.6%

51.9%

15%

41%

Ink 100.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 85.2

% 14.8%

40% 7%

13.2%

31.3%

0.0%

0.0%

13.2%

0.0%

-2%


Japan United States

Exports to EU

Share of items w


e (2014)



Share of items w


e (2014)


Growth rate of export value (2011-2014 / 2005 2008)

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e - V

olume -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e -

Volum

e - V

olume -

(Other items)

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price - Price ++ Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/-

Price -

Price ++

Price +

Price +/- Price -

Iodine 100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

49%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50%


78.9%

0.0%

54.2%

7.5%

17.2%

28% -9% -39

% 23.1%

9.6%

0.0%

9.7%

3.8%

-44% 3%

-83%

Car navigation systems 100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% -

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


42.1%

0.0%

0.0%

1.2%

1%

-51%

88.0%

80.8%

7.2%

0.0%

0.0%

60%

-30%


59.0%

0.0%

48.3%

10.7%

0.0%

17%

-3%

-47%

36.2%

0.9%

35.1%

0.2%

0.0%

-46%

-24%

-72%

-90%

<Exports to the EU: Reference 2> Major export products by sector ～ comparison with world prices A comparison with world prices shows that the export value of items in the high price category is increasing for some major export products (and other products) (organic polymer, iron and steel products, machine tools, integrated circuits, aircraft parts, optical fibers, endoscopes, etc.) (Figure II-1-1-3-59).

276

On the other hand, there are a few major export products (and other products) concerning which the export value of items in the high price category is not growing but whose overall export value is growing (or staying flat) mainly because of the growth of the low price category or the “other” category (man-made filaments, tools and cutlery of base metal, etc., industrial robots, medical sample testing instruments, etc.). Figure II-1-1-3-59 Item structures of Japan's exports to EU (by comparison with world prices;

major exports items, etc.)

(Billion dollars) Japan’s exports to EU (raw materials 1)

High price




Others Che

mic

al a

nd p

last

ic

prod

ucts

(oth

ers)

Inor

gani

c ch

emic

als

Org

anic

mon

omer

s

Org

anic

pol

ymer

s

Plas

tic fi

lms,

etc.

Prod

ucts

rela

ted

to

pain

ts a

nd c

olor

ing

mat

ter,

excl

udin

g pa

ints

Pain

ts

Phot

ogra

phic

m

ater

ials

R

ubbe

r and

ru

bber

pro

duct

s ex

clud

ing

new

tir

es

Tire

s (ne

w)

Med

icin

es

Cos

met

ics

277

(Billion dollars) Japan’s exports to EU (raw materials 2)

High price




Others Text

iles a

nd

clot

hing

, exc

ludi

ng

man

-mad

e fib

ers

Man

-mad

e fib

ers

Iron

and

stee

l

Arti

cles

of i

ron

or

stee

l

Non

-fer

rous

met

al

(oth

ers)

Cop

per

Alu

min

um

Nic

kel

Tool

s and

cu

tlery

of

base

met

al

Gla

ss

278

(Billion dollars) Japan’s exports to EU (general machinery)

High price

Notes: 1. The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to EU is 1.05 times higher than the

average international import price to EU. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to EU is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to EU. This graph shows the share and value of target items in EU’s total import value from Japan.



Others

General machinery

(others)

Machine tool


Ball bearings

Gearboxes Cocks and valves

Semiconductor-manufacturing

apparatus

279

(Billion dollars) Japan’s exports to EU (Electric instruments/precision instruments)

High price




Others Tran

smis

sion

app

arat

us fo

r ra

dio-

broa

dcas

ting

or

tele

visi

on, e

tc.

Elec

tric

inst

rum

ents

(oth

ers)

Con

dens

ers

Inte

grat

ed c

ircui

ts

Sem

icon

duct

or d

evic

es

Switc

hes,

etc.

(or

switc

hing

of e

lect

rical

ci

rcui

ts)

Elec

troni

c m

achi

nery

fo

r int

erna

l-com

busti

on

engi

nes

Prec

isio

n in

stru

men

ts

(oth

ers)

Test

ing

and

mea

surin

g in

stru

men

ts (e

lect

roni

c,

elec

tric

and

indu

stria

l)

Med

ical

equ

ipm

ent

280

(Billion dollars) Japan’s exports to EU (Transportation equipment)

High price




Others

Passenger cars

Cargo motor cars


Bicycle parts

Aircraft parts

Railway parts

Marine vessels

281

(Million dollars) Japan’s exports to EU (other items 1)

High price




Others

Iodi

ne

Acr

ylic

pol

ymer

s

Poly

ethy

lene

te

reph

thal

ate

Petro

leum

resi

n, e

tc.

Pola

rizin

g m

ater

ial

shee

ts

Mat

eria

ls o

f el

ectro

nic

parts

Car

bon

fiber

s Fl

at ro

lled

prod

ucts

of

stee

l or n

on-a

lloye

d st

eel

(of a

wid

th o

f 600

mm

or

mor

e)

Flat

rolle

d pr

oduc

ts o

f oth

er

non-

allo

yed

stee

l (of

a w

idth

of

600

mm

or m

ore)

Iron

and

stee

l pip

es a

nd th

ose

with

hol

low

pro

files

Ref

ined

cop

per

Nic

kel a

lloy

pipe

s and

pip

e jo

ints

Liqu

id lu

ster

, etc

.

Ink

Dev

elop

ed p

hoto

grap

hic

film

Rol

led

phot

ogra

phic

film

282


High price

Notes: 1. The term “high price” means that import price from Japan to EU is 1.05 times higher than the

average international import price to EU. The term “low price” means that import price from Japan to EU is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to EU. This graph shows the share and value of target items in EU’s total import value from Japan.

2. Data for lithium ion storage batteries, car navigation systems and wireless base stations exclude those in 2005.



Others

Indu

stria

l rob

ots

Proc

essi

ng m

achi

nes

usin

g la

sers

, etc

.

Proc

essi

ng m

achi

nes

(grid

ing

mac

hine

s, et

c.)

Mac

hini

ng c

ente

rs fo

r m

etal

pro

cess

ing,

etc

.

Elec

tric

furn

aces

for

indu

stria

l and

phy

sica

l an

d ch

emic

al u

se

Inje

ctio

n-m

oldi

ng

mac

hine

s for

lubb

er a

nd

plas

tic

Opt

ical

fibe

rs

Liqu

id c

ryst

al d

evic

es

Lith

ium

ion

stor

age

batte

ries

Car

nav

igat

ion

syst

ems

Wire

less

bas

e st

atio

ns

283

Among major export products (and other products) concerning which the export value of the high price category is increasing and concerning which the share of items in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+ (or volume+/unit price++)) is large are motor vehicle parts, ball bearings, X-ray apparatus for diagnostic use, stationery goods (ball-point pens, pencils/crayons, etc.), etc. (Table II-1-1-3-60). This suggests that while demand growth in Europe is stagnant, companies are conducting business without resorting to price competition. On the other hand, the overall export value of some major export products (and other products) is increasing because of the growth of the low price category or the “other” category (Table II-1-1-3-61). Concerning industrial robots, etc., which are among such products, the share of items with rising price is large and the export value of items in the low price category is growing. One reason why the export value of the low price category or the “other” category, rather than the high price category, is growing despite an uptrend in prices may be the possibility that Japan’s export prices are becoming relatively low due to increased imports of high price products from other countries and the yen’s weakening.


High price

Notes: 1. The term “high price” means that the import price from Japan to the EU is 1.05 times higher

than the average international import price to the EU. The term “low price” means that the import price from Japan to the EU is 0.95 times lower than the average international import price to the EU. This graph shows the share and value of target items in the EU’s total import value from Japan.



Others Dev

ices

for m

easu

ring

sem

icon

duct

ors a

nd IC

s U

ltras

onic

scan

ning

ap

para

tus

Med

ical

sam

ple

test

ing

inst

rum

ents

Endo

scop

es

X-r

ay c

ompu

ter

tom

ogra

phy

appa

ratu

s X

-ray

app

arat

us fo

r di

agno

stic

use

Arti

ficia

l joi

nts

Prun

ing

shea

rs

Saw

s

Kitc

hen

kniv

es

and

kniv

es

Ink

cartr

idge

s, et

c.

Statio

nery

(ball-p

oint

pens

, pen

cils, c

rayon

s, etc

.) O

ptic

al

mic

rosc

opes

Sani

tary

pro

duct

s (d

iape

rs, e

tc.)

284

Table II-1-1-3-60 Major export items, etc. concerning which the export value of the higher price category than world prices is increasing (exports to EU)




price” category


export value due to the growth of the “low price”

or “other” category.

Share of items with

volume+ and

price+ (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and

price- (2014)

Share of items with rising price

(2014)

Inorganic chemicals × (Declining) ○ 22.6% 6.0% 55.4%

Organic polymers ○ 8.0% 9.3% 43.6%

Plastic films, etc. ○ 5.4% 14.9% 44.7%


○ (Growing) 1.2% 12.9% 19.6%

Paints ○ 16.0% 9.5% 35.4%

Photographic materials ○ (Growing) 4.8% 0.0% 27.0%


Cosmetics ○ 7.5% 0.0% 9.2%

Textiles and clothing, excluding man-made fibers ○ 21.3% 16.3% 62.1%

Iron and steel ○ (Growing) 3.5% 12.0% 44.2%

Non-ferrous metal (others) × 16.1% 4.0% 21.3%

Nickel × ○ 29.1% 45.7% 34.3%

Machine tool ○ (Growing) 0.8% 0.3% 5.5%

Printing machines ○ - - -

Ball bearings ○ 25.7% 0.0% 84.8%

Gearboxes ○ (Growing) 13.5% 9.5% 35.7%

Cocks and valves × 0.0% 7.9% 9.0%

Condensers ○ (Growing) 0.0% 4.5% 58.7%

Integrated circuits ○ (Growing) 0.0% 0.0% 68.0%

Semiconductor devices × 0.0% 0.0% 29.3%

Electronic machinery for internal-combustion engines ○ ○ 5.1% 0.0% 72.3%

Medical equipment ○ (Growing) 4.5% 11.7% 26.5%

Motor vehicle parts ○ (Growing) 38.3% 0.0% 57.6%

Aircraft parts ○ (Growing) 0.0% 57.7% 9.7%

Polyethylene terephthalate ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Polarizing material sheets ○ 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%


○ 0.0% 0.0% 14.4%

Iron and steel pipes and those with hollow profiles ○ 13.5% 0.0% 71.5%

Refined copper × (Declining) ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

285




price” category


export value due to the growth of the “low price”

or “other” category.

Share of items with

volume+ and

price+ (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and

price- (2014)

Share of items with rising price

(2014)

Processing machines using lasers, etc. ○ (Growing) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Machining centers for metal processing, etc. ○ 1.9% 0.0% 1.9%

Optical fibers ○ 0.0% 59.8% 0.0%

X-ray apparatus for diagnostic use ○ 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Endoscopes ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Artificial joints ○ 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Saws ○ 24.5% 32.6% 29.6%


Ink cartridges, etc. ○ (Growing) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Optical microscopes ○ 0.0% 53.8% 42.1%


Liquid luster, etc. ○ 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Ink ○ 0.0% 14.8% 0.0%

Rolled photographic film ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

286

Table II-1-1-3-61 Major export items, etc. for which the export value is increasing in the lower than world prices or same-level as world prices categories (exports to EU)

Comparison with world prices (structures by item)

(Japan to EU)


price” category

Items remaining

flat in export


price” category



category

Items with growing

(or remaining)

export value due

to the growth of the “low price” or “other”

category.

Share of

items with

volume + and

price + (2014)

Share of items with

volume+ and

price- (2014)

Share of


(2014)

Chemical and plastic products (others) ○ ○ ○ 3.8% 10.5% 57.8%

Man-made fibers × (Declining) ○ ○ 13.9% 9.4% 29.7%

Copper ○ ○ ○ 0.0% 6.1% 21.3%


× (Declining) ○ ○ 12.3% 34.2% 34.3%


× ○ ○ 6.3% 59.7% 7.3%

Tractors × ○ ○ 98.0% 0.0% 99.7%

Iodine × ○ 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Petroleum resin, etc. × (Declining) ○ ○ 0.0% 89.4% 0.0%


× (Declining) ○ ○ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Carbon fibers × (Declining) ○ ○ 0.0% 95.3% 4.7%

Industrial robots × ○ 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%


× (Declining) ○ ○ 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

(D) Japan’s export trend by market (summary) Concerning major export products, the share of items with growing volume for Japan is lower than the shares for Germany and the United States in the three major markets (the United States, the EU and China). However, in each sector, the export values of some items with rising price are increasing. In addition, according to comparison based on classification of export products by volume and price trend, Japan outperforms Germany and the United States in terms of the rate of export value growth with regard to some items included in major export products (and other products). As for the high price category, Japan’s export value is steadily increasing in some of the eight major sectors, including chemicals and plastics and iron and steel products, even in the EU, where demand has remained stagnant against the backdrop of the European debt crisis. This suggests that in many cases, Japanese companies are capturing demand with products with differentiating features without resorting to price competition. On the other hand, Japan’s export value of electrical machinery is increasing only in China among the markets examined at this time, and in the United States and the EU, the export value is decreasing even for the high price category.

287

In all major sectors, there were major export products concerning which the export value of the high price category is increasing. For example, the export values of many major export products related to chemicals and plastics are increasing mainly in the EU and China primarily because of the growth of the high price category. As for pharmaceutical products, the share of items whose export value is significantly increasing due to volume growth and rising price is large in China and the United States.

Among major export products concerning which Japan outperforms Germany (exports to China and the United States) or the United States (exports to the EU) in terms of the export value growth are plastic film, etc. concerning exports to China, aluminum, nickel and glass concerning exports to the United States and copper and aluminum concerning exports to the EU82.

With regard to general machinery, the export value of printing machinery in the high price category is significantly increasing in all three major markets. As for machine tools, export value is growing for machining centers, etc. for metal processing, which were mentioned in the section concerning “other products,” in the high price category in the United States and the EU and in the low price category in China.

Among major export products concerning which Japan outperforms Germany (exports to China and the United States) or the United States (exports to the EU) in terms of the rate of export value growth are machine tools (exports to China) and bulldozers (exports to the United States).

Regarding IT-related products, the export value of integrated circuits in the high price category is increasing in the EU and the United States and the export value of those in the low price category is increasing in China due to volume growth. The export value is also increasing in China for switches, etc. (for switching of electrical circuits, etc.), testing and measuring instruments (electronic, electric and industrial) and polarizing material sheets in the high price category. Concerning products related to medical equipment, export value is growing in China and the EU, where aging of society coupled with a low birthrate is ongoing, with the export value of endoscopes rising steeply in the high price category.

Among major export products concerning which Japan outperforms Germany (exports to China and the United States) or the United States (exports to the EU) in terms of the rate of export value growth are ultrasonic scanning apparatus, X-ray computer tomography apparatus (exports to China), medical sample testing instruments (exports to China and the United States), and X-ray apparatus for diagnostic use and artificial joints (exports to the EU).

Concerning transportation equipment, the share of passenger cars in the growing volume/rising price category (volume+/unit price+) is large in China and the United States. As for comparison with world prices, overall export value is growing in China due to the growth of the low price category.

82This is a comparison between Japan and Germany (or the United States) in terms of the rate of export value growth of growing volume categories concerning which each of the two countries has a share of 20% or more.

288

The export value of motor vehicle parts is increasing steeply in China due to the growth of the high price category. In the EU, export value is growing only in the high price category, while overall export value is declining. In the United States, the share of items in the rising price category is small, and overall export value, including the value of the high price category, is declining. Concerning bicycle parts and aircraft parts, the share of items in the rising price category is large in China and the United States, whereas in the EU, the share of this category is small but export value is growing due to volume growth.

Among major export products concerning which Japan outperforms Germany (exports to China and the United States) or the United States (exports to the EU) in terms of the rate of export value growth are railway vehicle parts (exports to China) and aircraft parts (exports to the United States).

In addition, amid the rising reputation abroad of Japanese blades and tools whose quality depend on artisans’ high level of skills, the export value of tools and cutlery of base metal, etc. is increasing in various markets. In particular, exports of saws, kitchen knives and pruning shears in the high price category are increasing. (6) Country-by-country shares of products with increasing import value in major countries Above, it was confirmed that while export growth in many Japanese sectors is low compared with growth in other countries, the situation varies considerably from product to product and from market to market and that concerning some products, Japan outperforms other major exporting countries in terms of export value growth. However, it was also confirmed that concerning “major export products” and “other products,” exports are steadily growing for only a limited range of items. Therefore, in order to check how much Japan is responding to growing demand worldwide, we will select some products for which imports are growing in major markets and look at country-by-country shares. The method of checking is as described in Figure II-1-1-3-62.

289

Figure II-1-1-3-62 Analysis of country-by-country shares concerning items with growing import value in major countries (calculation method)

<1> Categorization of import value growth in major countries Categorization is decided based on trade data for 2005-2014 at the six-digit HS code level. - “Growth” refers to cases where the import value (dollar-based) in a major country grew in either

2013 or 2014 compared with two years between 2005 and 2008 and where the import value recorded year-on-year growth in at least three years between 2010 and 2014.

<2> Calculation of country-by-country shares A country’s share in the import in 2014 of items at the six-digit HS code level (=items) for which imports have been judged to have grown in <1>. * However, with respect to “other products,” country-by-country shares concerning not only items with

growing import value but all relevant export items are indicated because the number of items at the six-digit HS code level is small.

<3> Data Data from the Global Trade Atlas are used. (A) Country-by-country shares of products for which the value of imports by China is growing First, imports from Japan account for around 10-20% of Chinese imports in terms of value in the eight major sectors (Figure II-1-1-3-63). As for major export products in each sector, Japan’s import share is relatively small with regard to transportation equipment, electrical machinery and pharmaceutical products, for which the growth rate of imports by China is high. It is possible that Japan’s share is becoming relatively small because other countries make aggressive efforts to capture market shares concerning products for which the growth rate of imports by China is high. Concerning other products83, Japan has a large import share regarding polyethylene terephthalate, which may include functional chemicals, pruning shears, X-ray computer tomography apparatus for medical use, machining centers, etc. for metal processing, industrial robots, polarizing material sheets used in smart phones, etc., carbon fibers, optical microscopes, saws, stationery goods such as ball-point pens/pencils, etc.

83 Regarding other products, not only country-by-country shares concerning products with growing import value but also shares in the overall import value are used because many of these products include only a small number of six-digit HS code items.

290

Figure II-1-1-3-63 International share of items with growing import value to China

(Major eight sectors)


ent

Non-ferrous m

etal


Chem



Articles of iron or

steel

Precision instrum

ents

General m

achinery

Growth rate in China (right scale)

United Kingdom

ROK

Germany

United States

Japan

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to China (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. China’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) ÷ (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


(Materials sector)

Medicines


United Kingdom

ROK

Germany

United States

Japan

Notes: 1. Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import

value to China (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. China’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) ÷ (total value between 2005 and 2008)).

2. Articles of iron or steel and non-ferrous metal exclude scraps. Rubber and rubber products exclude new tires


Cosm

etics G

lass Tires (new

) C

opper

Rubber and rubber products excluding

new tires

Organic m

onomers

Plastic films, etc.


Non-ferrous m

etal (others)


an-made fibers

Chem

ical and plastic products (others) A

rticles of iron or steel M

an-made fibers

Inorganic chemicals

Organic polym

ers Tools and cutlery of base m

etal A

luminum

Iron and steel



Nickel

Paints

291

(Machinery sector)

Medicines


United Kingdom

ROK

Germany

United States

Japan

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to China (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. China’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) ÷ (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


Passenger cars Transm

ission apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc. R

ailway parts

Cargo m

otor cars Integrated circuits M

edical equipment

Motor vehicle parts






Bicycle parts


Machine tool

Switches, etc. (or sw

itching of electrical circuits) M

edical equipment


Gearboxes

Tractors C

ondensers B

all bearings Precision instrum

ents (others) G

eneral machinery (others)

Bulldozers

Buses

Semiconductor-m

anufacturing apparatus Printing m

achines

(Other items)



United Kingdom ROK Germany United States Japan


A

rtificial joints Pruning shears Endoscopes R

efined copper X

-ray computer tom

ography apparatus Iodine U

ltrasonic scanning apparatus M

achining centers for metal processing, etc.

Industrial robots Polarizing m

aterial sheets M

edical sample testing instrum

ents O

ptical fibers X

-ray apparatus for diagnostic use R

olled photographic film


Carbon fibers

Optical m

icroscopes Liquid luster, etc. Saw

s A

crylic polymers

Ink cartridges, etc. Processing m

achines (griding machines, etc.)

Stationery (ball-point pens, pencils, crayons, etc.) N

ickel alloy pipes and pipe joints K

itchen knives and knives Liquid crystal devices Chem

icals for materials of electronic parts


Electric furnaces for industrial and physical and chemical use Flat rolled products of steel or non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more) Ink Flat rolled products of other non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more) D

evices for measuring sem

iconductors and ICs Injection-m

olding machines for lubber and plastic

Iron and steel pipes and those with hollow

profiles Sanitary products (diapers, etc.) Lithium

ion storage batteries C

ar navigation systems

Wireless base stations

Notes: Figures show the share of target items in China’s total imports value in 2014 (not limited to items with growing import value). China’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) ÷ (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


292

(B) Country-by-country shares of products for which the value of imports by the United States is

growing Concerning products for which the growth rate of imports by the United States is growing, in the eight major sectors, Japan’s import share concerning transportation equipment is around 15%, the largest share for the country among the eight major sectors, but its import shares concerning some other products are less than 10% (Figure II-1-1-3-64). On the whole, Japan’s import share is small with regard to major export products for which the growth rate of imports by the United States is high (pharmaceutical products, integrated circuits, artificial joints, etc.). On the other hand, Japan generally has a large share in the machinery sector, with its share at more than 30% with regard to bulldozers, machine tools, electronic parts for internal combustion engines in particular. Concerning other products84, Japan has a large share with regard to many items, with its share at more than 30% for polarizing material sheets, machining centers, chemicals for electronic parts and lithium ion storage batteries in particular. Figure II-1-1-3-64 International share of items with growing import value to the United States




Chem


General m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents


ent


Articles of iron or

steel

Non-ferrous m

etal

Growth rate in the United States (right scale)

United Kingdom

ROK

Germany

China

Japan

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to the United States (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. The United States’ growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


293

(Materials sector)

Medicines


United Kingdom

ROK

Germany

China Japan


value to the United States (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. The United States’ growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) ÷ (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


Source: Global Trade Atlas. O

rganic monom

ers

Tires (new)

Cosm

etics



new tires

Man-m

ade fibers

Chem


Non-ferrous m

etal (others)

Nickel

Inorganic chemicals


an-made fibers


Glass



Plastic films, etc.

Articles of iron or

steel

Organic polym

ers Paints

Iron and steel C

opper

Alum

inum

294

(Machinery sector)

Integrated circuits


United Kingdom

ROK

Germany

China

Japan

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to the United States (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. The United States’ growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) ÷ (total value between 2005 and 2008)).



Transmission apparatus for

radio-broadcasting or television, etc.


Aircraft parts

Tractors Passenger cars G


Medical equipm

ent C

ocks and valves Precision instrum

ents (others) B

all bearings G

earboxes B

icycle parts M

otor vehicle parts





Machine tool


itching of electrical circuits) B

ulldozers C

ondensers C

argo motor cars

Railw

ay parts M

arine vessels B

uses

Semiconductor-m


Marine vessels

295

(C) Country-by-country shares of products for which the value of imports by the EU is growing Concerning products for which the value of imports by the EU is growing, Japan’s import share regarding precision machinery is around 10%, the largest share for the country among the eight major sectors, and its import shares concerning other products is smaller (Figure II-1-1-3-65). Concerning some major export products in the machinery sector, Japan has a large share (electronic parts for internal combustion engines, electrical capacitors and machine tools). Japan has a large share with regard to many of “other products”85 (industrial robots, machining centers, etc. for metal processing, chemicals for electronic parts, etc.).


Devices for measuring sem

iconductors and ICs

(Other items)

Artificial joints

Growth rate in the United States (right scale) United Kingdom ROK Germany China Japan

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to the United States (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. The United States’ growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) ÷ (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


Liquid luster, etc. R

olled photographic film

Iodine Polyethylene terephthalate Industrial robots A

crylic polymers


Medical sam

ple testing instruments

Optical fibers


Endoscopes Injection-m


Liquid crystal devices Polarizing m

aterial sheets C

arbon fibers Iron and steel pipes and those with hollow profiles Processing m


Machining centers for m

etal processing, etc. Pruning shears K

itchen knives and knives O

ptical microscopes

Flat rolled products of steel or non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more) U

ltrasonic scanning apparatus Ink Saw

s

Stationery (ball-point pens, pencils, crayons, etc.) Flat rolled products of other non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more) D

eveloped photographic film


Refined copper

Electric furnaces for industrial and physical and chemical use X

-ray apparatus for diagnostic use Chem


X-ray com

puter tomography apparatus

Ink cartridges, etc. Lithium





296

Figure II-1-1-3-65 International share of items with growing import value to EU



Chem


General m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents


ent


Articles of iron or

steel

Non-ferrous m

etal

Growth rate in EU (right scale)

ROK

China

Japan

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to EU (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. EU’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


United States


ROK

China

Japan

United States

(Materials sector)

Medicines

Inorganic chemicals

Organic m

onomers

Plastic films, etc.


new tires

Chem

ical and plastic products (others) N

on-ferrous metal (others)

Cosm

etics

Tires (new)

Organic polym

ers


an-made fibers

Man-m

ade fibers G

lass






Alum

inum

Iron and steel

Paints C

opper

Nickel


value to the EU (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. EU’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).



297

(Machinery sector)



ROK

China

Japan

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to EU (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. EU’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


United States

Integrated circuits R

ailway parts

Tractors M

otor vehicle parts Passenger cars G

earboxes A

ircraft parts

Electronic machinery for internal-com

bustion engines

Bicycle parts

General m

achinery (others) Precision instrum

ents (others)



Cocks and valves

Condensers

Ball bearings

Medical equipm

ent




Marine vessels

Buses

Cargo m

otor cars M

achine tool B

ulldozers Sem

iconductor-manufacturing apparatus

Printing machines

298

(D) Country-by-country shares of products for which the value of imports by Thailand is

growing Japan has a large import share concerning products for which the value of imports by Thailand is growing (Figure II-1-1-3-66). Concerning the eight major sectors, Japan’s share is smallest, around 10%, with regard to textiles and textile articles and is largest, around 40%, with regard to iron and steel products. As for major export products, Japan has a large share concerning many such products in both the raw materials and machinery sectors (tools and cutlery of base metal, etc., iron and steel products, nickel, photographic materials, bulldozers, motor vehicle parts, electronic parts for internal combustion engines, machine tools, gearboxes, semiconductor devices, ball bearings, etc.). Japan also has a large share concerning many of “other products” (polarizing material sheets, industrial robots, machining centers, etc. for metal processing, processing machines (for deburring and other usages), iodine, flat rolled products of steel or alloy (of a width of 600 mm or more).

(Other items)


ROK

China

Japan

United States

Iodine Liquid luster, etc. O

ptical fibers Polyethylene terephthalate C

arbon fibers A

rtificial joints Liquid crystal devices Petroleum

resin, etc. Ink K

itchen knives and knives Endoscopes Polarizing m

aterial sheets Saw

s Pruning shears A

crylic polymers

Industrial robots O

ptical microscopes


Medical sam

ple testing instruments

Stationery (ball-point pens, pencils, crayons, etc.) Flat rolled products of other non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 m

m or m

ore) U

ltrasonic scanning apparatus Processing m


X-ray com

puter tomography apparatus

Machining centers for m

etal processing, etc. Iron and steel pipes and those w

ith hollow profiles


Ink cartridges, etc. Injection-m



D

evices for measuring sem

iconductors and ICs


Refined copper


Chem


Flat rolled products of steel or non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm

or more)


C


Lithium ion storage batteries



Notes: Figures show the share of target items in EU’s total imports value in 2014 (not limited to items with growing import value). EU’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


299

Figure II-1-1-3-66 International share of items with growing import value to Thailand



Chem


General m

achinery

Precision instrum

ents Transportation equipm

ent


Articles of iron or

steel

Non-ferrous m

etal Growth rate in Thailand (right scale)

ROK

China

Japan

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to Thailand (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. Thailand’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


United States

Germany

300

(Materials sector)

Growth rate in Thailand (right scale)

ROK

China Japan

United States

Germany

Cosm

etics

Tires (new)


excluding new tires

Man-m

ade fibers


an-made fibers

Medicines


etal

Iron and steel

Glass

Chem


Non-ferrous m

etal (others)


Organic polym

ers

Inorganic chemicals

Organic m

onomers

Copper

Products related to paints and coloring matter,

excluding paints

Nickel

Plastic films, etc.

Paints


Alum

inum


value to Thailand (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. Thailand’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).



301

(Machinery sector)


ROK

China Japan

United States

Germany

Marine vessels

Notes: Figures show the international share in 2014 and growth rate of items with growing import value to Thailand (the growth of which is determined based on the criteria defined separately) between 2005 and 2014. Thailand’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


Tractors Passenger cars C

argo motor cars

Bulldozers

Aircraft parts


Railw

ay parts



Motor vehicle parts



Integrated circuits M

achine tool Electric instrum

ents (others) G

earboxes Sem

iconductor devices C

ocks and valves G


Medical equipm

ent B

all bearings



Condensers

Bicycle parts

Printing machines

Semiconductor-m


302

(E) Country-by-country shares of products for which the value of imports by major countries is

growing (summary) Above, we selected products for which the import value is growing in major markets (China, the United States, the EU and Thailand) and looked at country-by-country shares in the overall import value concerning the selected products86. As a result, it was found that Japan has a relatively large import share concerning many major export products (and other products) with growing import value mainly in the machinery sector. For example, the rate of growth in the import value of many IT-related major export products and other products is high in various markets. In particular, Japan has an import share of more than 50% concerning industrial robots (“other product” category) in three of the four major markets excluding United States, while its share concerning polarizing material sheets (“other product” category) is more than 80% in the United States and Thailand, and its share concerning semiconductor devices is more than 30% in three major markets excluding Thailand. In addition, in all four major markets, Japan has a share of more than 20% of the import value of some major export products (and other products) for which import value is growing (machine tools,


(Other items)


ROK

China Japan

United States

Germany


Notes: Figures show the share of target items in Thailand’s total imports value in 2014 (not limited to items with growing import value). Thailand’s growth rates are the results of ((total value between 2011 and 2014)-(total value between 2005 and 2008) / (total value between 2005 and 2008)).


Polyethylene terephthalate Liquid crystal devices Chem



Flat rolled products of other non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more) A

rtificial joints Industrial robots Liquid luster, etc. M

achining centers for metal processing, etc.

Optical fibers


Injection-molding machines for rubber and plastic U

ltrasonic scanning apparatus Processing m

achines using lasers, etc. Petroleum

resin, etc. K

itchen knives and knives Endoscopes Saw

s O

ptical microscopes

Processing machines (griding m

achines, etc.) Pruning shears Stationery (ball-point pens, pencils, crayons, etc.) A

crylic polymers


Devices for m

easuring semiconductors and IC

s M

edical sample testing instrum

ents Iodine Electric furnaces for industrial and physical and chem

ical use Flat rolled products of steel or non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more) R

efined copper C

arbon fibers Ink cartridges, etc. Iron and steel pipes and those w

ith hollow profiles

Ink X

-ray computer tom

ography apparatus D

eveloped photographic film

Sanitary products (diapers, etc.) Lithium




303

electronic parts for internal combustion engines, photographic materials, ball bearings, electrical capacitors and optical microscopes (“other product” category)). In both the U.S. and EU markets, Japan has a share of nearly 20% concerning some items in the chemicals and miscellaneous goods categories (acrylic polymers including water-absorbing resins (“other product” category), chemicals for electronic part and stationery goods (“other product” category), such as ball-point pens, pencils/crayons, etc., which have a high reputation for their meticulous specifications and easiness to use). (7) Competitiveness in export by product (summary) On the whole, Japan’s export value growth is weak compared with the growth for other countries. However, as was shown in (3), there are some major export products that include items concerning which Japan outperforms other major countries in terms of export value growth if examined carefully through classification by volume and price trends. In addition, as was shown in (6), Japan has a large import share concerning many major export items as far as items for which the import value in individual markets is growing are concerned. Against the backdrop of the aging of society coupled with a low birthrate, mainly in developed countries, as well as the trends of digitization and a shift to lighter raw materials in the manufacturing industry, demand is expected to grow for IT-related products, carbon fiber products, industrial robots and medical equipment, and the rate of growth in the value of imports by individual countries is high for many items in these sectors. Demand for Japanese products is growing concerning some items. In addition, it has been pointed out that demand for high-value-added products is growing in line with a rise in the income level in emerging countries, mainly among wealthy families. Japan needs to successfully capture such growing demand worldwide. As for the export trends concerning other major exporting countries that we looked at in (2), the export value of high-price items are on an uptrend for many countries, indicating the likelihood that companies are increasing exports without resorting to price competition. Regarding exports from Japan, exports of many items for which the Japanese price is higher than the world price (high price category) are steadily growing. This is evidence that even in the case of high-price products, it is possible in many cases to secure a sufficient export volume by exploring appropriate sales channels if the products are given differentiating features due to technological superiority. It is often pointed out that Japan tends to place emphasis on cost reduction against the backdrop of emerging countries’ increasing competitiveness. However, capturing growing demand worldwide and placing increased emphasis on producing high-value-added products in all manufacturing fields by taking advantage of its technological superiority will be the path for Japan to continue securing exports in the future.

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Table II-1-1-3-67 List of import items and HS codes List (1) of import items and HS codes in Part II Chapter 1 Section 1 “Competitiveness in exports”

(C) Major eight sectors HS Major items (and other items) HS Chemical and

plastic products 28-40 Chemical and plastic products (others) 28-40 (excluding items in

blue cells under 28-40) Major

Inorganic chemicals 28 Major Organic monomers 29 Major Organic polymers 3901-3914 Major Plastic films, etc. 3919-3921 Major Products related to paints and coloring matter, excluding paints

32 (excluding paints) Major

Paints 3208-3212, 321490 Major Photographic materials 37 Major Rubber and rubber products excluding new tires

40 (excluding 4011) Major

Tires (new) 4011 Major Medicines 30 Major Cosmetics 3304 Major Iodine 280120 Others Acrylic polymers 3906 Others Petroleum resin, etc. 3911 Others Polyethylene terephthalate 392062 Others Chemicals for materials of electronic parts

3818 Others

Liquid luster, etc. 320730 Others Ink 3215 Others Developed photographic film 3705 Others Rolled photographic film 370242 Others


50-63 Textiles and clothing, excluding man-made fibers

50-63 (excluding 54-55) Major

Man-made fibers 54-55 Major Articles of iron or

steel excluding scraps

72-73 Iron and steel excluding scraps 72 (excluding 7204) Major Articles of iron or steel 73 Major Flat rolled products of steel or non-alloyed steel (of a width of 600 mm or more)

7208 Others


7225 Others


7304 Others

Non-ferrous metal excluding scraps

74-81 Non-ferrous metal (others) 74-81 (excluding items in blue cells under 74-81 and scraps)

Major

Copper 74 (excluding 7404), 854411 Major

Aluminum 76 (excluding 7602) Major Nickel 75 (excluding 7503) Major Refined copper 7403 Others Nickel alloy pipes and pipe joints 750712 Others

305

Major eight sectors HS Major items (and other items) HS General machinery excluding major

parts for transportation

84 General machinery (others) 84 (excluding items in blue cells under 84 and major parts for transportation equipment)

Major

Machine tool 8456-8461 Major Bulldozers 8429 Major Printing machines 8443 Major Ball bearings 8482 Major Gearboxes 8483 Major Semiconductor-manufacturing apparatus

8486 Major

Cocks and valves 8481 Major Electric furnaces for industrial and physical and chemical use

8514 Others


847710 Others

Industrial robots 847950 Others Processing machines using lasers, etc. 8456 Others Processing machines (griding machines, etc.)

8460 Others


8457 Others

Notes: In the right columns, the term “Major” refers to major export items and the term “Others” refers to other items in Part II Chapter 1 Section 1 “Competitiveness in exports” (C).

List (2) of import items and HS codes in Part II Chapter 1 Section 1 “Competitiveness in exports” (C)

Major eight sectors HS Major items (and other items) HS Electric instruments 85 Electric instruments (others) 85 (excluding items in blue cells under 85 and major parts for transportation equipment)

Major

Condensers 8532 Major Integrated circuits 8542 Major Semiconductor devices 8541 Major Transmission apparatus for radio-broadcasting or television, etc.

8525 Major

Switches, etc.(or switching of electrical circuits)

8536 Major


8511 Major

Lithium ion storage batteries 850760 Others Car navigation systems 852859 Others Wireless base stations 851761 Others


90 Precision instruments (others) 90 (excluding items in blue cells under 90)

Major


9030-9032 Major

Medical equipment 9018-9022 Major Optical microscopes 9011 Others Liquid crystal devices 901380 Others

306

Major eight sectors HS Major items (and other items) HS Optical fibers 900110, 854470 Others Polarizing material sheets 900120 Others Devices for measuring semiconductors and ICs

903082, 903089, 903000 Others

Ultrasonic scanning apparatus 901812 Others Medical sample testing instruments 901819 Others X-ray computer tomography apparatus 902212 Others X-ray apparatus for diagnostic use 902214 Others Endoscopes 901890 Others Artificial joints 902131 Others


including major parts

86-89 and

major parts under

84, etc.

Passenger cars 8703 Major Cargo motor cars 8704 Major Buses 8702 Major Tractors 8701 Major Motor vehicle parts 8706-8708,

840731-840734, 840790, 840820, 840991, 840999, 854430

Major

Bicycle parts 871491-871499 Major Aircraft parts 8803, 841111-841122,

841191, 840710, 840910, 841210

Major

Railway parts 8607 Major Marine vessels 89 (excluding 8907-8908) Major

Others Glass 70 Major Carbon fibers 6815 Others Tools and cutlery of base metal 82 Major Pruning shears 820150, 820160 Others Saws 8202 Others Kitchen knives and knives 8211 Others Ink cartridges, etc. 9612 Others Stationery (ball-point pens, pencils, crayons, etc.

9608, 9609 Others

Sanitary products (diapers, etc.) 9619 Others Notes: In the right columns, the term “Major” refers to major export items and the term “Others”

refers to other items in Part II Chapter 1 Section 1 “Competitiveness in exports” (C).

part ii strengthening japan’s competitiveness by taking … · 2018. 11. 21. · 91 . part ii...

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