park city q3 stats

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055

Good MorningToday’s topics:1. Demand2. Supply3. Cash Sales4. Pricing Trends

Consider what will be your narrative?

Park City Real Estate Stats: Q3 2015

Monday, November 9, 2015


NAR announced (10/29/15) the pended home sales index retreated for a second month in September down 2.3% from August but is still 3% higher than September 2014.

Demand: Pending Sales




Dr. Yun attributed this to 1) “a dearth of available listings...2) the rockiness in the financial markets at the end of the summer and signs of a slowing U.S. economy.” Yet “with interest rates hovering around 4%, rents rising at a near 8-year high, and job growth holding strong, the overall demand for buying should stay healthy...”





Dr. Yun attributed this to 1) “a dearth of available listings...2) the rockiness in the financial markets at the end of the summer and signs of a slowing U.S. economy.” Yet “with interest rates hovering around 4%, rents rising at a near 8-year high, and job growth holding strong, the overall demand for buying should stay healthy...”

GPC PHSI for September also fell 1% from August, but August was a record breaker. In addition, this September is 6% higher than this time last year. Overall, Q3 was a very good quarter for GPC pended sales.




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Jan-15

NAR and GPC Pending Home Sales Index Thru 9/2015

Source: NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

National PHSI Park City PHSI



Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Demand: Pending Sales

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Pended Sales: Greater Park City As of 9/2015

Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

Land SFR Condos



August of 2015, highest monthly pended sales

since August 2006.

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7

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8

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9

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0

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1

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Pended Sales: Greater Park City As of 9/2015


Land SFR Condos



15%

33%

51%

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Pended Sales: Greater Park City YTD 9 Mo.Comparison

(as of 9/2015) Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

VL SF CO



Pended sales for the first nine months of this year are the highest since 2006. 15%

33%

51%

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Pended Sales: Greater Park City YTD 9 Mo.Comparison

(as of 9/2015) Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

VL SF CO



NAR announced (10/22/15) existing home sales rebounded in September by 4.7% to a SAAR of 5.55M and are now 8.8% higher than a year ago.

Demand: Exis1ng Sales




Dr Yun said “a slight moderation in home prices in some markets and mortgage rates remaining below 4% gave more households the confidence to close on a home last month.”





Dr Yun said “a slight moderation in home prices in some markets and mortgage rates remaining below 4% gave more households the confidence to close on a home last month.”

GPC three month rolling average also had a strong September, jumping 10% over September 2014.



Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Demand: Existing Sales

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4,000,000

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Jul-1

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NAR and GPC # of Transactions!As of 9/2015

Source NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

NAR SAAR Left Axis PC 3 Mo Rolling Avg Right Axis


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Demand: Exis1ng Sales

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Jan-

07

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7 Ju

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-07

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8 Ju

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-08

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Apr-0

9 Ju

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Oct

-09

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10

Apr-1

0 Ju

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-10

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11

Apr-1

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-11

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Closed Sales: Greater Park City Number of Transactions

(as of 9/2015) Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

CO SF VL Monday, November 9, 2015


Closed sales for August were the highest monthly sales since August 2007.

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Closed Sales: Greater Park City Number of Transactions


CO SF VL Monday, November 9, 2015


51%

33%

16%

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1600

Q3

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Closed Sales: Greater Park City 1st 9 Months Comparison


Condo Sf VL



Closed sales for 1st 9 months of 2015 are the highest since 2007.

Higher by 10.6% over 2014.


51%

33%

16%

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Q3

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Closed Sales: Greater Park City 1st 9 Months Comparison


Condo Sf VL



35%

56%

16%

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

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800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

Q3

2007

Q3

2008

Q3

2009

Q3

2010

Q3

2011

Q3

2012

Q3

2103

Q3

2014

Q3

2015

Voum

e S

old

Greater Park City Volume 1st 9 Months (as of 9/2015)


Condo SF VL Monday, November 9, 2015


Volume for SF Homes for first 9 months, best since 2005.

Total volume up 15.5% from last year.


35%

56%

16%

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

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1,000,000,000

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1,400,000,000

Q3

2007

Q3

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Q3

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Q3

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Q3

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Q3

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2103

Q3

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Q3

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old

Greater Park City Volume 1st 9 Months (as of 9/2015)


Condo SF VL Monday, November 9, 2015


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Number of sales back to 10/2003Volume back to 04/2005.

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B"./016C"&"D0"?;4">/6E"?F21A" G0/HD6"&"D0"?;4">724IJ"?F21A"Monday, November 9, 2015


NAR: Total housing inventory at the end of September decreased 2.6% to 2.21M existing homes for sale and is now 3.1% lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.8 month supply.

Supply: Inventory



NAR: Total housing inventory at the end of September decreased 2.6% to 2.21M existing homes for sale and is now 3.1% lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.8 month supply.

GPC total listings October 1st were 1,096 down 2.6% from the month before and is down 98 listings or 8.2% from last year. The absorption rate is 7.2 months for all properties and 6.1 months for condos and single family.

Supply: Inventory



1,096 Listings as of 10/1/15 compared to1,194 as of 10/31/14.

Supply: Inventory

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ings

Active Listings - Greater Park City (Inventory as of first of the month)

October 1, 2015 Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

VL SF CO


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Supply

Absorption rate at 6.1 monthsaverage since 2010: 11.2 months.

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Jan-07

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8

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Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-1

0

Oct-10

Jan-11

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Jul-1

1

Oct-11

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Jul-1

2

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4

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Apr-15

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5

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Absorption Rate (Condo & SF): Greater Park City October 1 2015

(Sales: 3 mo rolling avg.) Source: PC MLS/ Compiled by Rick Klein


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Supply: Q3 15 Inventory ChangePer Area

* # of Sales based upon past 12 months

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Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Supply: Q3 15 Absorption Rate Per Area

* # of Sales based upon past 12 months

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NAR: cash sales were 24% of transactions in September up from 22% in August and the same as a year ago. Individual investors purchased 13% of homes last month; 67% of investors paid cash in September

Cash Sales



NAR: cash sales were 24% of transactions in September up from 22% in August and the same as a year ago. Individual investors purchased 13% of homes last month; 67% of investors paid cash in September

So, with any luck will the percentage of cash financing also decline in Park City?

Cash Sales


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Cash Sales

26%

35%

45%

50% 48%

50% 48% 47%

56%

43%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15

% o

f Cas

h Sa

les

Cash Sales History Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Cash Sales


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Cash Sales

Cash per property type Q2 15CO - 40%SF - 31%VL - 80%

26%

35%

45%

50% 48%

50% 48% 47%

56%

43%

48%

0%

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40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15

% o

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Cash Sales History Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Cash Sales


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Mortgage Rates

30 Year Fixed 7/1 ARM

Conforming 4.250%4.305% APR

3.625%3.420% APR

High Balance($600,300)

4.250%4.271% APR

3.875%3.513% APR

Non-Conforming 3.875%3.901% APR

3.375%3.254% APR

Rates quoted for a purchase transac>on (as of 11/9/15)

Conforming 15 year fixed: 3.500%; APR 3.594%


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Home Prices

Case Shiller announced (10/27) home price increases of 5.1% annual as of August 2015.




FHFA stated (10/23) home prices increased 5.5% for the 12 months ending August 2015 and were up 0.3% from July.





CoreLogic reported (Sept) home prices increased 6.9% year over year in August. Home prices nationwide remain 8.4% below their peek, which was set in April 2006. Last year’s appreciation rate in Utah was 6.4%.



NAR (10/23) stated median existing home price was $221,900; this is a 6.1% increase from September 2014.






NAR (10/23) stated median existing home price was $221,900; this is a 6.1% increase from September 2014.




GPC 12 month median price for Q3 2015 is $559K and the mean price is $918K. This represents a 7.6% and 7.3% increase respectively over Q3 2014.



Home prices are back to winter 2005 levels.



Home prices are back to winter 2005 levels.

Measured from their June/July peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both composites is 11% - 13%; since the March 2012 lows, the Composites have recovered 34.4% and 35.7%..



Federal Housing Finance Agency



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NAR and PC Median Price Trends As of 9/30/2015

Source: NAR, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

US Median left axis PC Median right axis


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Homes Prices

$100,000

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Pri

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Greater Park City Median Prices

12 month rolling average (As of 9/2015)

Source PCMLS & Rick J. Klein

12 Mo avg Med Price`



Rolling 12 month median increase of 7% over last year.

$100,000

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Jan-0

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Rolling 12 month median increase of 7% over last year.

Using the 12 month rolling average; GPC is 23% below April 2008; since the lows at the end of 2011, prices have increased 24%

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

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Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Homes Prices By Neighborhood

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Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Homes Prices By Neighborhood

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Q3 2015: Up 7.6% over Q3 2014Up 9.8% over Q3 2013

Home Prices

0

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GPC 12 Month Median Prices As of 9/2015


Median Price Monday, November 9, 2015


Q3 2015: Up 7.3% over Q3 2014Up 10% over Q3 2013

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GPC 12 Month Average Prices As of 9/2015


Average Price Monday, November 9, 2015


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Home Prices by Segment

Average Price 9/14 to 9/15 up 6.8% Median Price 9/14 to 9/15 up 7.1%

# of Transaction 9/14 to 9/15 up 11.1%



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Average Price 9/14 to 9/15 up 14.4%Median Price 9/14 to 9/15 up 6.8%

# of Transaction 9/14 to 9/15 up 27.7%


Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Home Prices by Segment

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Rick J. Klein435 647 9055In Summary

Demand remains strong. YTD closed sales through Q3 are 10% higher than last year.




Inventory remains low with about 100 listings less than this time last year. Supply tends to fall further in Q4. Find your buyers a property that works for them now.





Median prices for GPC are up an impressive 7% over Q3 2014. Yet, price appreciation varies considerably per market segment. A tale of two zip codes? Are the lines being blurred?






GPC is highly segmented and extremely dynamic. Consumers need informed and professional agents.






GPC is highly segmented and extremely dynamic. Consumers need informed and professional agents.

Rates are great and we have double the number of cash sales than national stats. Help!


park city q3 stats

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