parallel session b: coupled models b1: atmosphere-land ...conference. keywords: diurnal cycle, south...

ParallelSessionB:CoupledModels

B1:Atmosphere-land

POSTERPRESENTATIONS

ParallelSessionB:CoupledModelsB1:Atmosphere-land

B1-P-01

ContributionofUrbanHeatIslandonLandscapeCompositionandItsImpacttotheLandSurfaceTemperature(CaseStudyonPalembangCity-Indonesia)

AdelinaGaol,IndonesianAgencyofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia

AdelinaGaol,YopiSerhalawan,IndonesianAgencyofMeteorologyClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia;PaulusWinarso,SchoolofMeteorologyClimatologyandGe,Indonesia

PalembangasthecapitalofSouthSumatraProvince,andalsofamousasthehostoftheAsianGames2018hashighdevelopmentactivitiesalongwiththeincreasingpopulation.Developmentcarriedoutthroughthediversionoflandfunctionsintobuilt-uplandcausesanincreaseinsurfacetemperaturewhich triggers theurbanheat islandphenomenon. This study aims todiscuss thephenomenonofUrbanHeatIslandinPalembangCityanditsrelationtolandcompositionandpopulationdensityonsurfacetemperaturesobtainedfromtheprocessingofmulti-temporalLandsatImagesin1989,2001,2018, with the specification of cloud-free (clear sky) using the Land Surface Temperature (LST)algorithm and guided classification (supervised). The results of surface temperature, populationdensity,andlandcompositionwerethencarriedoutsimpleregressiontests.ThedistributionoftheUHIphenomenonisobtainedbyclassifyingLSTtoobtaintheUHIthreshold.Theresultsshowedalinkbetweenchangesinsurfacetemperature,populationdensityandlandcomposition.Thevalueofthedeterminant coefficient (R2) between the relationship of changes in surface temperaturewhich isdirectlyproportionaltotheincreasingpopulation,theincreaseintheareaofeachopenlandandbuilt-up land reached 62.6%, 86.3%, and 55.0%. Conversely, there is a negative link between surfacetemperatureanddensevegetationwithadeterminantcoefficientreach90.4%.TheaffectedareaofUHIislocatedinthecenterofPalembang,reaching33.5km2ofthetotalareaofPalembangCityin2018.ItisnecessarytohaveanidealcitymitigationandarrangementbycalculatingthegreenareawiththeincreasingpopulationinPalembangCity.

Keywords:UrbanHeatIsland,LST,Landsat


B1-P-02

DiurnalcycleofprecipitationandatmospherichumidityfluxinSouthAmerica:roleofland-atmosphereinteractions

JulianGiles,CIMA-UBA-CONICET-UMIIFAECI,Argentina

JulianGiles,RominaRuscica,ClaudioMenendez,CIMA-UBA-CONICET-UMIIFAECI,Argentina

Modelaccuracyofthetimingofprecipitationin itsdiurnalcycleisasimportantasthatofthedailymeantocorrectlyrepresentclimate,butneverthelessitisoftenoverlooked.Weanalyzedthediurnalcyclesofprecipitation(DCP)andconvergenceofatmospherichumidityoverSouthAmericainthewetseason(OctoberthroughMarch),usingtworegionalclimatemodels(RCA4andLMDZ).Thesimulationswere compared with two satellite-derived products and one reanalysis. Consistent with previousresults, these RCMs have a wrong representation of the DCP because precipitation is beingunrealistically triggered too easily. Both models showed qualitatively similar errors in the DCPcomparedtoreferencedata.However,thehumidityfluxconvergence-anecessaryconditionforacorrectrainfallsimulation-anditsdiurnalcycleatthecontinentalscaleweresatisfactorilycapturedcomparedtothereanalysis.Wespeculatethattheboundarylayerevolutionanditsthermodynamicpropertiescouldbesensitivetothecouplingbetweenthesoilandtheatmosphere.Inordertoexploreifthediurnalcyclesofconvectionanddifferentpropertiesoftheboundarylayeraresensitivetotheland-atmosphere coupling, an additional run was performed with each RCM: an Uncoupledexperiment that shares the sameset-upas thecontrol (coupled)one,except that its soil-moistureevolutionateachdayisreplacedwiththeclimatologyofthecontrolforthatday,uncouplingthelandsurface from the atmosphere. The main results of this experiment will be presented during theconference.

Keywords:diurnalcycle,southamerica,precipitation,atmospherichumidityfluxconvergence,land-atmospherecoupling,soilmoisture


B1-P-03

LandsurfacecontributionstotheamplificationofAustralianheatwavesvialocalland-atmospherecoupling

AnnetteHirsch,CLEX/UNSW,Australia(presentedbyJ.Evans)

AnnetteHirsch,JasonEvans,CLEX/UNSW,Australia;GiovanniDiVirgillio,UNSW,-;SarahPerkins-Kirkpatrick,UNSW,-;DanielArgüeso,U.BalearicIslands,-;AndrewPitman,CLEX/UNSW,-;ClaireCarouge,CLEX/UNSW,-;JatinKala,MurdochUni,-;JuliaAndrys,MurdochUni,-;PaolaPetrelli,

CLEX/UTAS,-;BurkhardtRockel,Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht

Climatechangeis likelytoincreasethefrequency, intensityanddurationofheatwaves,particularlyoverAustralia.Heatwavesposeasignificant risk toecosystemandhumanhealthasevident in theimpactsofseveralwelldocumentedcasestudies, includingthe2003Europeanheatwave,the2010Russianheatwaveandthe2012/2013summerinAustralia.Heatwavesaregenerallyassociatedwiththeclearskies,increasedsubsidence,warmairadvectionandprolongedheatarisingfrompersistentquasi-stationaryhigh-pressuresystems.However,landsurfaceconditionshavebeenshowntohavean influence on amplifying the surface temperatures experienced during a heatwave.Mostanalyses todate focuson the roleanomalous soilmoistureconditionsprecedingexceptionalevents(e.g.the2003Europeanheatwave).However,ingeneralitisnotknownhowmuchtherateofland surface drying, through land-atmosphere interactions, both before and during a heatwavecontributestotheintensityoftheseextremeevents.Therefore,inthisstudyweexaminehowtherateoflandsurfacedryingprecedingaheatwaveeventcontributestoheatwaveintensity.Herewefocuson Australian heatwaves using both observational data and model output from the CORDEXAustralAsiaproject.Wefindthatrateoflandsurfacedryingpriortoaheatwaveeventinfluencesthemagnitudeoftemperatureanomaliesexperiencedbutonlyoverregionswherethereisstrongcouplingbetweenthe landandtheatmosphere.Wealsofindthatheatwavesaretriggeredmorefrequentlyoverregionswherethereisstrongland-atmospherecoupling.Timepermitting,wewillalsopresentnewresultsdistinguishingbetweendynamicalandnon-locallandsurfacecontributions.

Keywords:land-atmosphereinteractions,heatwaves


B1-P-04

ResponseofLUCAS-modelstoforestationandafforestationinEuropeunderdry,wetandhotclimateconditions

PeterHoffmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany

PeterHoffmann,DianaRechid,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Hamburg,Germany;EdouardDavin,EidgenössischeTechnischeHochschuleETHZurich,

Zurich,Switzerland;NathaliedeNoblet-Ducoudré,LaboratoiredesSciencesduClimatetdel'Environment,IPSL,France;EleniKatragkou,DepartmentofMeteorologyandClimatology,Schoolof

Geology,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece;MarcusBreil,InstituteofMeteorologyandClimateResearch,KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology(KIT),Germany;RitaCardoso,InstitutoDomLuiz(IDL),FaculdadedeCiências,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal;ErikaCoppola,InternationalCenterforTheoreticalPhysics(ICTP),EarthSystemPhysicsSection,Italy;LisaJach,InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany;SwantjePreuschmann,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany;KaiRadtke,ChairofEnvironmentalmeteorology,BrandenburgUniversityofTechnology,Germany;MarioRaffa,REgionalModelsandgeo-HydrologicalImpacts,CentroEuro-MediterraneosuiCambiamentiClimatici,Italy;Vanessa

Reinhart,ClimateServiceCenterGermany(GERICS),Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany;PedroSoares,InstitutoDomLuiz(IDL),FaculdadedeCiências,UniversidadedeLisboa,Portugal;IoannisSofiadis,DepartmentofMeteorologyandClimatology,SchoolofGeology,AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki,Greece;SusannaStrada,InternationalCenterforTheoreticalPhysics(ICTP),EarthSystemPhysicsSection,Italy;GustavStrandberg,RossbyCentre,SwedishMeteorologicalandHydrologicalInstitute,Sweden;MerjaTölle,DepartmentofGeography,Climatology,Climate

DynamicsandClimateChange,Justus-LiebigUniversityGiessen,Germany;KirstenWarrach-Sagi,InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany;VolkerWulfmeyer,

InstituteofPhysicsandMeteorology,UniversityofHohenheim,Germany

WithintheCORDEXFlagshipPilotStudyLUCAS-"LandUseandClimateAcrossScales",thebio-physicalimpactsofland-useandlandcoverchanges(LULCCs)ontheregionalclimateinEuropearecurrentlyextensivelyinvestigated.Anensembleofdifferentregionalclimatemodels(RCMs)coupledtodiverselandsurfacemodels (LSMs)hasbeensetuptoperformidealizedexperimentswithextremeLULCCscenariosfortheEUR-44domaindrivenbyERA-Interim.Inthefirstscenario,Europeiscoveredwithforestwheretreescanrealisticallygrow(FOREST),whileinthesecondscenarioallforestsareturnedintograssland(GRASS).Anevaluationrun(EVAL)withtheindividualmodellandsurfacedistributionswasalsoconductedforeachparticipatingRCM-LSM.TheresponsesoftheRCM-LSMensembletothetwoextremeLULCCscenariosshowrobustseasonalsignalsforsomeregionsandsomevariablesbutalsodisagreementsbetweenthedifferentRCM-LSM.

In this study, the influence of atmospheric conditions on the responses to the extreme LULCC isinvestigatedtounderstandtheinter-modeldifferencesandtoassestherobustnessoftheresponses.ThisisdonebyanalyzingdifferencesbetweentheFORESTandGRASSsimulationsunderdry,wet,andhotclimateconditions.Dryandwetclimaticconditionsaredetectedusingtwodifferentmethods.Forthe firstmethod, the fivewettest and five driest years are determined in the EVAL runs for each

PRUDENCEregionandseason.Thesecondmethodisbasedonthestandardizedprecipitationindex(SPI),computedfromthemonthlyprecipitationintheEVALruns.Monthswithalow(high)SPIoverthe majority of the corresponding region are defined as dry (wet) conditions. Regional scale hotconditions are detected using the hot season definition. The differences in near-surface variablesbetweentheFORESTandGRASSsimulationsarethenaveragedforthedifferentclimaticconditionsandcomparedtotheaverageresponsecomputedforthewholeperiod.

Keywords:LUCAS,Land-useandlandcoverchange,extremeclimateconditions


B1-P-05

IndianSummerMonsooninacoupledland-atmosphereregionaldownscalingexperiment

DhirendraKumar,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India

DhirendraKumar,A.P.Dimri,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India

One of the visions of the CORDEX project is to evaluate and improve different regional climatedownscaling techniques through testing differentmodels over a common area. In this regard, thecapabilityofregionalclimatemodelRegCM4forcedwithtwodifferentGCMsandthreedifferentland-surface parameterization schemes (i.e. BATS, CLM4.5, and Subgrid-BATS) in simulating the meanfeaturesofIndianSummerMonsoonistestedforthepresentclimate(1975-2005).TheselectionoftheGCMs(MIROC5andCCSM4)weremadeonthebasisoftheirabilityinrepresentingtheseasonalmean,inter-annualandtheintra-seasonalvariabilityofmonsoonovertheIndianregionbasedontheavailableliterature.Intotal,6differentlongtermsimulationswerecarriedoutandassessedintermsof seasonal mean near surface air temperature, precipitation and low level wind fields for June-September season over CORDEX-South Asia domain. Among all the experiments, MIROC-RegCM-CLM4.5experimentsoutperformothersinsimulatingtheJJASseasonalmeanprecipitationandwindclimatologywith comparatively lessdrybiasover the Indian region. Themodel performancewereassessed in terms of Taylor's metric (for seasonal mean precipitation, temperature, zonal wind,meridionalwindandtotalcloudfraction),meanannualcycle,IndexofAgreement,NormalizedRootMeanSquaredDeviation,andProbabilitydistributionfunctionovertheIndianlandmassregion.ThemodelexperimentswerefoundtosimulatethemoderateprecipitationeventsmoreaccuratelythanhigherintensityprecipitationeventswhencomparedwithIMDobservations.Theinherentbiasesinthemodelsimulationsareattributedtotheweakermeridionalwindsimulation intheexperimentsalongwithrestrainedverticalmotionduringmonsoonespeciallyincaseofthoseforcedwithCCSM4GCM. This emphasizes the importance of appropriate GCM forcing as well as land surfaceparameterization scheme for the simulation of a coupled land-ocean-atmosphere system such asIndianSummerMonsoon.

Keywords:RegCM4,CLM4.5,CORDEX-SouthAsia,Monsoon,Downscaling


B1-P-06

RegionalclimateimpactassessmentofvegetationchangeinLoessPlateau:CombiningWRF-Noahmodelandlongtimeseriessatelliteobservations

ShunlinLiang,WuhanUniversity,China

SiliangLiu,WuhanUniversity,China;ShunlinLiang,[email protected],UnitedStates

LoessPlateau(LP),apilotregionwitharidandsemi-aridclimateinChina,hasundergonesignificantvegetationchangesincethelaunchofthe‘GainforGreen’Program(GGP)in1999.AstheaimofGGPtoincreaseforestcoverandcontrolsoilerosion,partsofagriculturelandhaveconvertedtoforestsand grassland. The net warming or cooling effect of afforestation in this region is still uncertain,dependingonthecompetingcontributionsofalbedoandevapotranspirationaswellasbackgroundclimate. Further, it is reported that vegetation change has altered the rainfall distribution andfrequencyinLP.

Withtheavailabilityofdecadesofsatelliteobservations,thetransitionoflandcovertypesandchangeofvegetationstatuscanberepresentedrealistically.Throughincorporatingthisinformationintothestaticfieldofcoupledatmosphere-landregionalclimatemodel,itisexpectedtoquantifytheclimateeffectsduetovegetationchange.

Theobjectiveofthisstudyistoinvestigatehowsurfaceairtemperatureandprecipitationresponsetovegetation change due to government policy in LP, through combining multiple long time seriessatelliteproductsfrom1982to2016andWRF-Noahmodel.TohighlighttheeffectofGGPandavoidsensorscalibrationissue,thewholetemporalrangeisdividedintotwoperiods:1982-1999and2000-2016.Contrastingsensitivityexperimentsareconductedusingrealvegetationobservationsandstaticvegetationbackgroundtoisolatetheeffectsofvegetationchange.

Keywords:VegetationChange,ClimateEffects


B1-P-07

ThestudyofthesurfaceroughnesslengthanditsapplicationintheNoahMPonthenorthernoftheTibetanPlateau

MaoshanLi,ChengduUniversityofinformationtechnology,-

MaoshanLi,XiaoranLiu,ChengduUniversityofinformationtechnology,China

ThisstudyfocusesonthetemporalandspacevariationoftheroughnesslengthonthenorthernoftheTibetanPlateau.Thefiguresshowthatthereisthedistributionofthesurfaceaerodynamicroughnessof40000km2aroundBJsite(BJsiteisinthecenter,timeistakenonthe15thofeachmonth).ItcanbeseenfromthefigurethatthesurfaceroughnessoftheareashowsadecreasingtrendfromJanuarytoFebruary,whichmaybeduetosnowfallandotherreasons,resultinginasmallsurfaceroughnessandacontinualdecreaseinsurfaceroughness.FromFebruary15toMarch15,thez0mhasrecoveredsomewhat inamonthas figureC isbasicallyconsistentwithfigureA, it indicatesthatthez0mhasreachedto its lowest, itcould indicatebysnowfallmustbegintomelt,andthecontributionofthecomplexunderlyingsurfaceenvironmenttoz0misenhanced.OnMarch,April,Mayz0mcontinuestoincrease,andthevegetable lowgrowth in these threemonths, themonthlychartchangesarenotlarge. These figures show the coverage of the surface is indicating the complexity of the surface,whetherthesurfaceorvegetationwillhaveanimportantimpactonthez0m.FromMarchuntilAugust,z0m has been on a rising trend. Corresponding to the obvious changes of relative humidity,temperature and pressure brought by the summer monsoon mentioned above, the height andcoverageofsurfacevegetationareallincreasing.Therefore,z0misalsoconstantlyincreasing,reachingitspeakinAugust.ItisnoteworthythatthechangefromMaytoJuneisverysignificant.ThismaybeduetothestartofthecorrespondingplateausummermonsooninJune,whichwillleadtotheincreaseofprecipitation.Aftertheprecipitationincreases,thegrowthofvegetationwillaccelerateandthez0mwill rapidly increase. June, July, August three months, due to continuous precipitation and otherreasons, leading to plant growth is very strong, but grow to the maximum no longer grow,corresponding to the map is the maximum surface roughness has not changed, but due to theabundantwater, thez0mgraduallyexpanded in thepast threemonthsandreachedthemaximumareainAugust.FromSeptembertoDecember,withthedeclineofplateaumonsoon,somechangeshave taken place in temperature and relative humidity, compared with the prevailing summermonsoon,whicharenolongersuitableforthegrowthofvegetation.Fromthismonth,thevegetationcontribution to z0m is gradually weakened, and the height and coverage area of z0m graduallydecrease.Therefore,z0malsodecreasescontinuouslyandtherangebeginstodecrease.InDecember,thez0mareanearBJsitesuddendecreasemaybeduetosnowfall.

Itcanalsobeseenfromtheabovesimulationthatthez0mchangesnotonlyimpresswiththetimescalebutalsowiththespatialscale.Fromthesefiguresofthecharacteristicstrend,wecanseethattheunderlyingsurfacehasdifferentcomplexity,thetrendofthez0misdifferent.Afterinvertingthesatelliteremotesensingdata,wealsogetthevariationofz0mof40000km2aroundtheBJstationatnorthernTibetanPlateauin2008,whichshowsthedatadecreasefromJan.toFeb.ItreachesitspeakinAug.andthendecreaseagain.Thisannualvariationistosomeextentrelatedtotheplateausummermonsoonandsnowfall.Besides,thevegetationheightindryseasonsislow,sothez0misdeterminedmainlybythereliefoflandsurfaceindryseason.Ontheotherhand,improvedroughnesslengthwas

applicated in the NoahMP simulation process and the simulated results were evaluated usingobservation.

Keywords:theroughnesslength,numericalsimulation,TibetanPlateau


B1-P-08

ProbabledeviationsofairtemperatureinthesurfacelayerofaridregionsofArmeniainthecontextofglobalclimatechange

PargevMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.ChairoftheTheoryofProbabilityandMathematicalStatistics.,Armenia

PargevMargaryan,VarduhiMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.,Armenia

Today the effects of climate change are felt around the world and Armenia is not an exception.Armenia ischaracterizedbyvulnerablemountainousecosystems,aridclimate,anactiveprocessofdesertificationandnaturaldisastersareoftenobserved,whichmakesthecountrymorevulnerabletheimpacts of climate change. The air temperature has a main role in the forming of atmospherecirculation,evaporationandmoistureregimeofterritory.Thatiswhytheairtemperaturestudyisanimportant task and caught our attention. So, clarifying and estimation of regularities of temporaldistributionofairtemperatureimportance,especiallyformoreaccuratedefinitionofthermalbalance,forproductiveusingofthermalresources.

Forsolvingofsuggestedproblemsasatheoreticalbasehavebeenusedappropriateresearches,asarawmaterial-actualdataoflong-termobservationsofairtemperaturesthemeteorologicalstationoftheterritoryofrepublicforlast100years,whicharekeptinfondArmstatehydromet.Inworkhavebeen applied methods: mathematic-statistical, geographical, extrapolation, analysis, correlation,complex.

AveragedataofairtemperatureobservationsinArmeniaatmeteorologicalstationsfortheperiodof1935-2017hasbeenanalyzed.

Instudyareathevaluesofaverageannualairtemperaturearewithin14.3ºC(Meghri)and-2.6ºC(Aragats).DuringtheyearthewarmestmonthsareJuly-August,withaveragemonthlytemperature9.0…27.0ºC,andthecoldestmonthareJanuarywithaveragemonthlytemperature-12.7…1.5ºC.

InArmeniaairtemperaturechangeshavebeenestimatedfordifferentperiods,andresultshavebeenusedinfirstandsecondnationalmessagesofClimateChangeofRA.Theresultsshow,thatduringlastten-years period in Armenia observes increasing of air temperature. During 1935-96 period forcomparisontobasicperiod (1961-1990)averageannual temperature increasedon0.4ºC, in1935-2007period–0.85 ºC, in1935-2012period -on1.03 ºC. Itmeans that the tempsof temperatureincreasing increased.Since1994thedeviationsofaverageannual temperature incomparisonwithaveragetemperaturein1961-1990wereonlypositive.

BytheforecastsofECHAMS,GFDL,GISSER,HadCM3modelsinArmeniapredictsannualincreaseofairtemperaturefor1.1-1.5ºCin2011-2040,2.0-3.0ºCin2041-2070,and3.5-5.5ºC–in2071-2100.So,intheresultsofstudieswehavethefollowingconclusionsandsuggestions:

Inperennialobservationsnotesatendencyofincreaseofannualaveragevaluesofairtemperature;

- have beenmademany researches, but there are not studies systemized of reasons of airtemperaturechangeyet,andexistedare just forsomesidesof it.So, isbetter tocontinuestudiesandtodevelopfutureforecasts,usingnewmodels;

- estimationofproblemsofairtemperaturedynamicschangewillgetrightsolving,whenwillbe known the relations, which it have with other components of nature area complex inconditionsofdirectinfluenceofhuman.

Isnecessary:

- providingofmeteorologicalstationswithmodernequipment(especiallyautomatic);

- evaluationofthevulnerabilityofecosystemsasaresultofchangesinairtemperature;

- realizationlegal-organization,institutional,technicalarrangementsforadaptationofeconomytonewnaturalconditionsandsoftenofclimatechangeconsequences;

- strengthening of scientific studies of climatic problems and implementation of newtechnologies;

- workingoutofrealclimaticscenarios;

- workingoutoftheprogramsforsofteningthenegativeeffectsofairtemperaturechange;

- financial satisfy support from government and other donor organizations madeimplementationsmustbevisibleforsociety,directedforrealizationofspecificprogramsandhavecontrolbysomeorgans;

- providingofmodernwaysofavailabilityandoutspreadofinformation;

- working out and implementation of qualification programs, organization of studyingprocesses,developmentofspecialists’qualification;

- realization and providing international scientific-educational cooperation, strengthening ofinter-agencycooperation.

Keywords:airtemperature,aridregions,probabledeviations,globalclimatechange,Armenia


B1-P-09

DynamicschangeofannualnumberofatmosphericprecipitationofArabatphysicalgeographicalaridregioninglobalclimatechangecontext

VarduhiMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.FacultyofGeographyandGeology.DepartmentofPhysicalGeographyandHydrometeorology.,Armenia

The atmospheric precipitation change is a reason of different dangers ecological situationsmanifestations.Needtostudythecause-and-effectrelationshipsofprecipitationchangebecamemorevitalsincethelate20thcentury,whenitbecameclearthatthesustainabledevelopmentofthesocietyduetoclimatecomponentsprotection

So,consideringtheabove,studiedandevaluatedthedynamicschangeofannualprecipitationofanimportantagriculturalregionoftherepublic,Araratvalley,clarifiedthedistributionpatterns,revealedthechallengesofsphere.

Forsolvetheseproblemsasatheoreticalandinformativebasisservedappropriatestudies,publishedworks, decisions of the Armenian government, reports, development programs, projects, workingplans.Asastartingmaterialusedactualdateoflong-termobservationofatmosphericprecipitation(1935-2015)ofmeteorologicalstationsofArmstatehydrometofMESofRAofstudyarea,aswellasclimatic reference-books. As a methodological basis used geographical, mathematics-statistical,extrapolation,matching,comparison,analysis,correlationmethods.

Thetasksofatmosphericprecipitationchangediscussedandstudiedbytheresultsofactualdataofseparatemeteorologicalstations.Asaresultofthestudyrevealed,thatintheregionobservesregularspatialdistributionofdynamicschangeofthenumberofprecipitationduringtheyear.Thus,attheterritoryofAraratvalleyisnoticedincreaseofamountofannualprecipitationuntil1300mheight,andon greater heights-tendency of decrease. But it does notmeans, that humidification and artificialirrigationissueofvalleyareresolved.Thereasonis,thatatlowzoneduetohighairtemperatureanditsincreasetendencyisgreattheevaporation,therefore,thelossofprecipitationalso.Ontheotherhand,ontheterritoryoftheRAtheriverrunoffisformedat1800mandmoreheightsmainly.Andinthiszoneobservesonlyadecreasetendencyofprecipitation.So,it isnecessarytomanageanduseright the water resources from atmospheric precipitation, especially in the context of the globalclimatechange.

According to regional climatic models (Armstatehydromet) in Armenia is expected an increase ofannualtemperatureon1.1-1.5ºCin2011-2040,2.0-3.0ºC-in2041-2070,3.5-5.5ºC–in2071-2099anddecreaseofannualprecipitationappropriatelyon5-10%,10-15%,15-25%.

Thus, in the resultof suchchangeofatmosphericprecipitationwillobservedaviolationofnaturalecosystem balance, particularly an aridity of climatic conditions, sail degradation, biodiversityviolation.So,itisnecessarytoevaluateprecipitationchangewithecosystemapproach,byseparatephysical-geographical regions or river basins, to work out appropriate programs of consequencesmitigationandadaptionevents,takingintoaccountlocalfeaturesofanyarea.

Intheresultofstudieswecametofollowingconclusionsandproposals:

• Theatmosphericprecipitationbelongstothatmeteorologicalelements,whichcharacterizedwithmorelocalfeaturesofspatiotemporaldistribution;

• Thenumberofprecipitationregularly increasesfromlowregionsofvalleytosouth-easternslopesofAragats.Maximumannualnumberofprecipitation(988mm),intheRepublicalso,observes at Aragats meteorological station, minimum number (166 mm) – at Taronikmeteorologicalpoint;

• Ontheresultofstudyhasnegativeeffectacircumstance,thatinstudyareameteorologicalstationsandpointsarelocateduntil1200mheightmainly,at1300-2000mheighttheirnumberis2;

• Until1300mheightisobservedatendencyofincreaseofannualnumberofprecipitation,andmorehigher–atendencyofdecrease;

• In the conditions of conservation of such cause of precipitation change, probably, will begrowthofaridityoftheregion,intensivesoildegradation.

Itisnecessary

• Providingofcontinuouscomprehensiveandsystematicscientificstudiesofdynamicschangeofprecipitation,investmentofnewprogramsandtechnologies;

• Providingofhomogeneity,continuityandreliabilityofobservationsofactualdataseries;

• Trainingprofessionals,organizingoftrainingcoursescontinuously;

• Improvingofinformationandnotificationsystems;

• Evaluationofvulnerabilityofecosystemsduetoprecipitationchange;

• Reserving ofwater of small streams and rivulets of upland areas during humid period forirrigationrelativelydryareasindryseasoninlowareas;

• Mitigation of legal-organizational, institutional, technical events for softening of effects ofatmosphericprecipitationchangeandadaptingofeconomytonewnaturalconditions.

Keywords:atmosphericprecipitation,globalclimatechange,Araratphysicalgeographical,aridregion


B1-P-10

ForecastofPlantingCalendarforSorghum(Sorghumbicolor)fromDownscalingMethodinKivuMountain,DRCongo

RomainNtole,UniversiteEvangeliqueenAfrique,DemRepofCongo

RomainNtole,BajopeBaluku,UniversiteEvangeliqueenAfrique,DemRepofCongo;NapoleonKajunji,MakerereUniversity,DemRepofCongo

Assessing impact of climate change on Sorghum production and analysis of future adaptationmeasuresbearsenormousadvantagesingeneralandinSouthKivuinparticular,owingtothecountry’slow adaptive capacity. The analysis shows that climate changewill reduce Sorghumproduction inSouthKivuMountainthroughtimehorizons i.etill theyear2030s,2050sand2080s.Thisstudywasconductedtocharacterizeclimate,assessitsimpactonSorghumproductionandidentifymanagementoptionsfortheclimatefuturedatesinSouthkivuMountainDRCongo.Dailyclimatedata,normalizedlarge scaleHadley Centre coupledModel version 3model predictors and crop and soil datawereanalyzed.Pastandpresentclimatevariabilitycharacterizationwasassessedthroughseasonalrainfallamount,monthlyrainfallstatisticsanddryspelllengthusingRanalyticaltoolandINSTATclimateguide.Temperaturevariabilitywasexaminedintermsofpatternandtrend.Forfutureprojection,Climatechangescenariosforrainfall,minimumandmaximumtemperaturesweredevelopedfortheperiod2001-2099byusingtheHadleyCentrecoupledModelversion3underA2aandB2aSpecialReportonEmissionScenariosusingStatisticalDownscalingModelversion4.1software.DecisionSupportSystemforAgro-technologyTransfer, cropmodelwasused to simulate future changes in Sorghumand todetermine best adaptation measures in Kivu area under modified environment. Seasonal rainfallamountwasfoundtodecreasewithsignificancefor42yearsperiod(P<0.05)whilemonthlyrainfallstatistics showed a high variation (CV of 80.6 to 34.4% acrossmonths).Minimum andmaximumtemperatures showedan increasing trendat interannual scale (0.21ºCperdecadeand0.14ºCperdecaderespectively).Thefutureprojectionanalysisshowedadecreasingtrendofannualrainfallandincreasingtrendfortemperaturesduringtheperiodfrom2001-2099.Accordingly,theaverageannualminimumtemperaturewasfoundtorise in2020,2050and2080sforA2aandtodecreaseforB2aemissionscenarios.Whilemaximumtemperaturewaspredictedtoincreasein2020,2050sand2080sunderbothemissionscenarios.In2080s,theaverageannualmaximumtemperatureincrementwouldbehighforB2ascenarios.Thecropmodelsimulationindicatedapositiveimpactonthecultivarsacrossclimatechangescenariosrelativetobaselineduetoclimatechangeby2100s.Asadaptationoptionsunder changed climate conditions, And best agricultural practices have been found to be acombinationoflateplantingdate,highplantpopulationandhighfertilizerapplicationrate.Thecultivarhasbeen foundtobemoresensitiveonhigh fertilizerapplicationrate.Therefore,growingcultivarunderfutureclimateconditionwithimprovedmanagementoptionssuchashighfertilizerapplicationrate,improvedsoilwaterandplantinginthirddekadofJulycouldensurehighyieldsduringagoodrainyseason.Likewise,goodyieldcouldalsobeobservedduringapoorrainyseason.

Keywords:Downscaling,scenarios,CropModel,,Sorghum


B1-P-11

LandsurfacetemperatureinhighresolutionsimulationswithRegCMoverSoutheasternBrazil

MichelleReboita,UniversidadeFederaldeItajubá,Brazil

MichelleReboita,UniversidadeFederaldeItajubá,Brazil;RosmeriP.daRocha,UniversidadedeSãoPaulo,Brazil;MuriloRuvLemes,Brasil,Brazil;MartaLlopart,UniversidadeEstadualPaulista,Brazil

Withtherefinementofthehorizontalresolutionoftheregionalclimatemodels,satelliteobservationshave become a source of information to validate the simulations. In this context, land surfacetemperature (LST) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used tovalidatetwoRegionalClimateModel(RegCM)version4.6.1simulationsforsoutheasternBrazil.LST-MODIS isregisteredonly inclear-skyconditions.Here,weusedtheLSTfrommergingtheproductsfromthesatellitesTERRAandAQUAwith1kmofhorizontal resolution for2010-year.RegCMwasdrivenbyERA-Interimreanalysisandwasintegratedwith5kmofhorizontalgridspacing,usingtheEmanuel cumulus convection scheme and with different land-surface schemes: the Biosphere–AtmosphereTransferScheme(BATS)andtheCommunityLandModel(CLM).ThesesimulationsweredenominatedRegBATSandRegCLM,respectively.Consideringthewholesimulationdomain,RegBATS(RegCLM)hasatendencytounderestimate(overestimate)theLSTregisteredbyMODIS.FocusingonthelargeurbancentersofsoutheastBrazil(SãoPaulo,RiodeJaneiro,BeloHorizonteandVitória),bothsimulationsreproducetheLSTannualcycleinagreementwithMODIS.ThegreatestsimilarityinLSTvalues between RegCM andMODIS occurs in the coastal regions (Rio de Janeiro and Vitória). Forexample,inRiodeJaneirotheLSTmeanannualbiasis0.9oC(-0.6oC)inRegCLM(RegBATS).InSãoPaulo,RegCLM(biasof0.6oC)isclosertotheMODIS,whileinBeloHorizontesmallerbiasisfoundinRegBATS(biasof-0.4oC).Thebiasesovertheseurbancentersarerelativelysmallsincetheyarelessthan±1oC.

Keywords:landsurfacetemperature,RegCM,MODIS


B1-P-12

ProjectedtrendsofprecipitationregimeinUkraineduringtheperiodof2020-2050

InnaSemenova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

TheprojectedspatiotemporaldistributionofprecipitationindifferentregionsofUkraineundertheclimatescenarioRCP8.5wasdefined.ThedataoftheregionalclimatemodellingprojectCORDEXEUR-44havebeenusedforconstructiontimeseriesofprojectedprecipitation.FortheSteppeandForest-Steppeareas,trendsofprojectedclimateextremeindicesforprecipitationwereassessed.

The analysis showed that the projected amount of summer precipitation will decrease over theterritory of Ukraine, but unevenly in different decades. In the period of 2020-2030 precipitationamount will not change in the northern, central and western regions, but in the Crimea and theCarpathians will decrease by 17% and 38% respectively. In the southern and eastern regionsprecipitationamountwillincreaseby17-25%.Duringtheperiodof2030-2040projectedprecipitationamountwilldecreaseby7–46%throughoutthecountry,exceptforthewesternregions. Indecade2040-2050anincreaseinprecipitationby13-15%isexpectedinthenorthernandcentralpartsandintheCrimea.Intheotherregionstheamountofprecipitationwilldecreaseby5-38%.

TheanalysisoftimeseriesoftheALTCDDindexshownthatthenumberofdrydaysinallareaswillincreaseandreachupamaximumin2044-2045.Duringthisperiod,isprojectedfrom30drydaysinForest-Steppeto51drydaysinthesouthernSteppe.

AccordingtoprojectedtrendsoftheSDIIindextheprecipitationintensitywillweaklyincreaseinallregions.Thehighestintensityupto5mm/daywillexpectedinthenorthernForest-Steppeattheendof2040s,whenthegeneraldecreaseofprecipitationsumsisexpected.

TheanalisysoftimeseriesoftheR95pTOTindexshowedthattheamountofextremeprecipitationwill increase during the study period. A maximum amount is projected in the central and south-westernStepperegions,whereitrangefrom115mm/yearin2020sto150mm/yearin2038–2039.

Keywords:climatescenario,precipitationregime,climateextremeindex


B1-P-13

ClimaticimpactoverSouthAmericacausedbytheAmazondeforestationduringdistinctPacificDecadalOscillationphases

MariaElisaSilva,FFLCHUSP,Brazil

MariaElisaSilva,GabrielPereira,RosmeriRocha,AndréMedeiros,USP,Brazil;DanielMendes,USP,Brazil

Numerical simulations indicate specific changes in the precipitation patterns, mainly during thesummerperiod,overSouthAmericaduetodeforestationscenariosofAmazonianforest:precipitationdecreaseoveradjacentanddeforestedareas,and,ontheotherhand,precipitationincreaseovertheeasternSouthAmericasector.Diagnosticstudiesindicateadipole-likeprecipitationpatternovertheeastern side of South America during the positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO,phases.InthisstudyweverifiedtheabilityoftheregionalclimaticmodelRegCMnewversion,RegCM4,in simulate the climatic variability on the decadal scale over South America, from 1970 to 2003..Additionally,wesoughttoevaluatetheclimaticimpactoverSouthAmericaduetotheextrapolatedAmazondeforestationfortheyear2050,forthedistinctPDOphases.TheRegCM4modelwasabletorepresent theprecipitationdipolepatternobservedoverSouthAmerica for thethreePDOphases,althoughthedipolepatternisdisplacedsouthwardthantheobtainedwiththeNCEP-NCARreanalysisIprecipitation.ThedeforestationexperimentusingextrapolatedAmazonlanduseprovidedastrongerincrease of air temperature and precipitation over South America on the positive PDO phase ifcomparedwiththenegativePDOphases.Thenextstepswillallowquantifyingtheclimatic impactsduringElNiñoeventsoccurredonthedistinctPDOphases.

Keywords:Amazondeforestation,regionalmodelRegCM4,decadalvariability


B1-P-14

AnanalysisofextremerainfalleventsovertheHimalayanregionusingcoupledmodels

CharuSingh,IIRS,India

CharuSingh,SanjeevKumarSingh,SantoshVishwakarma,IIRS,India

North-WestHimalayan(NWH)regioninIndianishighlyvulnerabletoextremerainfallevents.Duetointricatetopography,theobservationalnetworkissparseinthisregion.Owingtothelimitationswiththesatellitederivedrainfalldatasetsoverthemountainousregion,itposesseveralchallengestothescientificcommunitytoanalyseandmonitortheheavyrainfallevents.Inaclimatechangesscenario,asubstantialincreaseofheavyrainfalleventsovertheNWHregionisanticipated(Menonetal.,2013;Bhartietal.,2016andreferencestherein).Therefore,itbecomesessentialtoimproveforecastingskillsof the regional models to minimise the disastrous impact of the extreme rainfall events on thelivelihood of the region, however due to the availability of limited observational data sets, acomprehensive evaluation of themodel derived rainfall forecastmay not be carried out. Regionalmodelsthoseparticipated intheCORDEXprojectusestheboundaryconditionsderivedbycoupledclimateCMIP5models.Hence,itisalsoimperativetoassessthecoupledclimatemodelsinestimatingtheheavyrainfalleventsovertheNWHregion.Inthepresentstudy4CMIP5modelsareutilisedforanalysingtheextremerainfalleventsforvariousfuturewarmingscenarios(i.e.representativefuturewarmingscenarios:RCPs)forpresentyearsandtowardstheendofthe21stcentury.PresentanalysissuggestsasubstantialchangeintheextremerainfalleventsdistributionovertheNWHregionunderthewarmestfuturewarmingscenarioRCP8.5.

Keywords:North-westHimalayanregion,extremerainfallevents,regionalmodel,RCP8.5


B1-P-15

InstitutionalizationofClimateAdaptationPractices:ACaseStudyofPlannedcityofChandigarh,India

ManojKumarTeotia,CRRID,India

Citiesseemtobeveryvulnerabletodisastersandclimaterelatedrisksoccurringmorefrequentlyinrecent past. The potential risks of disasters are putting pressure on city governments for devisingknowledge based innovative tools to cope with the emerging challenges. Chandigarh, the mostattractiveplannedcityinNorthwesternIndiahasinitiatedveryremarkableandparticipatoryinitiativesforimprovingenvironmentalconditionsinpoorneighborhoodsandinstitutionalizeclimateadaptationpractices. The major climate friendly initiatives of the city are introduction of Garbage Bin FreeScheme,SahejSafaiKendras(EasySanitationCentres),ScientificLandfillofWaste,SettingupofWastetoEnergyPlant,revitalizationofgreenbelts,parksandroundabouts,optingforenergysavingstreetlights, augmentation of secondary and tertiary treatment of liquid waste, SCADA for watermanagement, constructionofdedicatedbicycle lanes, switchover toCNG/LPGbasedautomobiles,modernization of fire services and a very important initiative of making solar energy systemscompulsory in the largerhousingunits. institutions andofficesetc. The resultsof the initiatives inChandigarhhavebeenremarkable.Thecityhasbeenadoptedasamodelcityforthesolarenergyandithasbeenmovingveryfastinmakingcitya‘solarcity’.Ithasalsobeenadjudgedthegreenestcityinthe country. Chandigarh has received awards for providing quality sanitation in 2010, bestperformanceawardforprovidingwatersupply,wastewatermanagementanddrainagein2008,anawardforincreasingforestandtreecoverin2010andsixawardone-governanceduringlastfiveyears.ThepaperbasedonsomestudiesbytheauthorisanefforttodescribetheinitiativesofChandigarhtowardsinstitutionalizationofclimateadaptationpractices.

Keywords:Institutionalization,ClimateAdaptation


B1-P-16

CharacterizationofairandsurfacetemperaturecouplingovertheTibetanPlateau:Resultsfrommulti-sourcereanalyses

XuejiaWang,1.StateKeyLaboratoryofCryosphericScience,NorthwestInstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;2.ReginalClimateGroup,DepartmentofEarth

Sciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden

XuejiaWang,1.StateKeyLaboratoryofCryosphericScience,NorthwestInstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;2.ReginalClimateGroup,DepartmentofEarthSciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden;DeliangChen,ReginalClimateGroup,Departmentof

EarthSciences,UniversityofGothenburg,Sweden

TibetanPlateau(TP),knownasEarth’s“ThirdPole”,exertsatremendousinfluenceonregionalandevenglobalweatherandclimatesystemsthroughitsmechanicalandthermal-dynamicalforcing.Land-atmosphereinteractionsarekeypartsofEarthclimatesystems.Near-surfaceairtemperature(Ta)andsurfacetemperature(Ts),twocrucialparametersofland-atmosphereinteractionsandclimatechange,bothexhibitsignificant increasingtrendsontheTP,howeverwithdiversemagnitudes.Yet it isstillunclearwhetherandhowthetwovariablescouplewitheachotheralongwiththeirinvolvedphysicalprocesses.Inthisregard,thisstudyattemptstoanalyzethevariationcharacteristicsoftwoindividualvariablesatseasonalandinter-annualscalesanddetectthedistributionsandtrendsoftheircontrast(Ts-Ta)usingfourlatestreanalysisdatasetsECMWFfamily(ERA-InterimandERA5),MERRA2,andJRA-55, together with gridded observations. Possible forcing mechanisms are explored and discussedfurthermore.Thepresent findingswillprovide insight into regionalclimatemodeling improvementandadvancestudyofland-atmosphereinteractionsovertheTP.

Keywords:TibetanPlateau,Airtemperature,Surfacetemperature,Temperaturecontrast,Reanalysisdataset


B1-P-17

AssessmentoftheUncertaintiesofOptionsintheNoah-MPLandSurfaceModelSimulationsoverChina

YanYan,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

YanYan,JianpingTang,SchoolofAtmosphericSciences,NanjingUniversity,China

Theinteractionsbetweentheatmosphereandthelandsurfaceisbelievedtohavesignificantimpactson the climate change. Land surface influences both regional climate andmesoscale atmospherethroughexchanges inheat,waterandmomentumwith theatmosphere.Themainpurposeof thisstudyistoassesstheimpactoftheNoah-MPlandsurfacemodeloptionsonregionalclimatesimulationoverChina.Therefore,wehaveperformed4groupsofsimulationsduringsummerandwinterseasonsof2007andof2015withtheWRFmodelcoupledwiththeNoah-MPlandsurfacemodel.Eachgroupcontains5experiments:NOAHMP,ALBwith theBATSsnowsurfacealbedoscheme,BTRwithCLMstomatal sesistance schemeusingmatric potentials as fuction of soil type,DVEG allowing annualyconstant vegetation fraction and time-varing LAI and SAI from lookup tables, ROUOFF adopting asimplegroundwaterparameterizationbasedontheTOPMODELrunoffscheme.Fromthecomparisonofthemeandistributionbetweenobservationandexperiments,highCORRsandrelativelylowRMSEsaredetectedforthetemperature.Duringsummersin2007andin2015,warmbiasesaregenerallyfoundinthenorth,whilecoldinthesouth.Theexperimentsalsounderestimatewintertemeperatureingeneral.However,relativelowCORRsforprecipitationwithlargerRMSEs(wetbiases)arefoundinsummer. For the inraseasonal variations, the comparisons between theNOAHMPandobservationshowhighCORRsandlowRMSEsforthemeansurfaceairtemperatureinsummerandrelativelargeRMSEsinwinter.Forprecipitation,theWRFmodelshowsrelativelypoorperformanceinintraseasonalvariability with low correlations and large RMSEs especially in summer. The intercomparisons ofexperimentswillbedicussedinthefuture.

Keywords:Noah-MP,options


B1-P-18

ImpactofEquatorialandNorthernBayofBengalSST'sontheIndiansummermonsoonrainfall

JohnsonZachariah,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India

JohnsonZachariah,C.ABabu,CochinUniversityofScienceandTechnology,India;HamzaVarikoden,InsdianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology,India

The influenceofEastequatorial IndianOceanand thenorthernBayofBengalSST'son the rainfallpattern over monsoon core zone during Indian summer monsoon is investigated. During Indiansummermonsoon,rainfallovermonsooncorezoneandtheSSTattheEastequatorialIndianOceanarenegativelycorrelated,whereasitispositivelycorrelatedwithNorthernBayofBengal.Anewindex,thesummermonsoonSSTindexfromtheSSTdifferencebetweentheEastequatorial IndianOceanand theNorthernBayofBengal regions is formulated. SummermonsoonSST index shows strongcorrespondence with the intraseasonal oscillation of Indian summer monsoon and, rainfall overMonsooncorezonevaries incoherentwiththeincreasing/decreasingperiodsofsummermonsoonSST index. The rising limbof themonsoonHadleycell and theassociatedatmospheric convectionshowsnorth-south shiftingaccording to the increasing/decreasing trendsof summermonsoonSSTindex.ThiscoherentvariationofrainfallovermonsooncorezonewithsummermonsoonSSTindexsuggeststhatSST'satEastequatorialIndianOceanandNorthernBayofBengalareteleconnectedwithMonsooncorezoneandconsequentlymodulatetherainfallpatternoverMonsooncorezone

Keywords:Monsooncorezone,SummermonsoonSSTindex,IndianSummermonsoon

parallel session b: coupled models b1: atmosphere-land ...conference. keywords: diurnal cycle, south...

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