PARAGUAY: EXPORTACIONES,

EMPLEO, PRODUCTIVIDAD Y

CRECIMIENTO

Junio 2006

Objetivo

Utilización del modelo de GTAP para realizar simulaciones ex antes, a fin de evaluar el impacto de instrumentos de política económica que puedan lograr el crecimiento de la economía.

RegionesRegiones SectoresSectores

ParaguayParaguay SojaSoja

ALCAALCA Resto de AgriculturaResto de Agricultura

Resto del MundoResto del Mundo GanaderíaGanadería

CarneCarne

AlimentosAlimentos

TextilesTextiles

Petróleo, derivados y mineralesPetróleo, derivados y minerales

Manufactura Manufactura

ConstrucciónConstrucción

ComercioComercio

ServiciosServicios

Agregación de regiones y sectores

Modelo y Cierre

- Modelo estándar del GTAP. - Cierres (Closures) estándar del modelo GTAP, ajustado para describir cierta característica de las economías de América. - El cierre utilizado presume desempleo del factor trabajo no calificado.

Closure

exogenous pop psaveslack pfactwld profitslack incomeslack endwslack cgdslack tradslack ams atm atf ats atd aosec aoreg avasec avareg afcom afsec afreg afecom afesec afereg aoall afall afeall au dppriv dpgov dpsave to tp tm tms tx txs qo(ENDW_COMM,REG) ;Rest Endogenous ;!Employmentswap qo("unsklab","Paraguay") = pfactreal("unsklab","Paraguay");swap qo("unsklab","ALCA") = pfactreal("unsklab","ALCA");

Macrosimulaciones

- Plena vigencia de un Acuerdo de Libre Comercio (ALCA).

- Subsidio a las exportaciones paraguayas del 10%.

- Aumento de la Productividad Total de los Factores (PTF) en 5%.

- Aumento de la Productividad Total de los Factores en el Sector Primario en 10%.

Plena vigencia de un Acuerdo de Libre Comercio (ALCA)

Cambio % en el PIB real

qgdp (Sim) Paraguay 0.65 7,206 7,252 47ALCA 0.00 12,790,358 12,790,412 54ROW 0.00 18,480,852 18,480,850 -2

Descomposición del Bienestar

WELFARE 1 alloc_A1 2 endw_B1 3 tech_C1 4 pop_D1 5 tot_E1 6 IS_F1 7 pref_G1 Total1 Paraguay 0.85 45.78 0 0 11.42 2.17 0 60.21

2 ALCA 13.94 40.04 0 0 5 1.3 0 60.283 ROW -2.34 0 0 0 -16.39 -3.46 0 -22.2Total 12.44 85.82 0 0 0.02 0 0 98.29

Efectos de los Términos de Intercambio

TOT 1 Paraguay 2 ALCA 3 ROW Total1 Soja 4.73 -2.13 -1.34 1.26

2 RAgric 2.49 -1.16 -0.76 0.583 Ganaderia 0.18 -0.14 0.01 0.06

4 Carne 0.95 -0.61 0.02 0.375 Food 0.43 -0.35 0.14 0.22

6 Textiles 0.17 0.32 -0.52 -0.037 FuelMiner 0 0.2 -0.2 0

8 Mnfcs 0.05 5.91 -7.01 -1.049 Contruccion 0 0.03 -0.04 -0.0110 Comercio 0.4 0.22 -0.71 -0.09

11 Svces 2.37 2.68 -6 -0.94Total 11.77 5 -16.39 0.38

Cambio % en las Exportacionesqxw Paraguay ALCA ROWSoja 0.18 0 0

RAgric 1.22 0.01 0Ganaderia -2.67 0.01 0

Carne 43.68 -0.07 -0.02Food 48.68 0.02 -0.01

Textiles 3.93 0.04 0FuelMiner 0.26 0 0

Mnfcs 6.12 0.01 0Contruccion 0.65 -0.01 0Comercio -1.43 0 0

Svces -0.47 0 0

Subsidio a las exportaciones

paraguayas del 10%

Cambio % en el PIB real

qgdp (Sim) Paraguay 2.42 7,206 7,380 174ALCA 0.00 12,790,358 12,790,419 61ROW 0.00 18,480,852 18,480,850 -2

Descomposición del Bienestar

WELFARE 1 alloc_A1 2 endw_B1 3 tech_C1 4 pop_D1 5 tot_E1 6 IS_F1 7 pref_G1 Total1 Paraguay 18.65 154.69 0 0 -74.06 -9.5 0 89.78

2 ALCA 17.51 43.25 0 0 52.78 8.93 0 122.463 ROW -1.49 0 0 0 23.19 0.79 0 22.49Total 34.66 197.94 0 0 1.91 0.22 0 234.74

Efectos de los Términos de Intercambio

TOT 1 Paraguay 2 ALCA 3 ROW Total1 Soja -8.8 4.56 3.84 -0.41

2 RAgric -3.02 1.48 1.54 03 Ganaderia -0.16 0.1 0.06 0

4 Carne -1.79 1.43 0.18 -0.175 Food -5.04 4.34 0.13 -0.57

6 Textiles -3.31 1.36 2.08 0.127 FuelMiner 0.01 0.24 -0.17 0.08

8 Mnfcs -6.33 10.82 -3.27 1.229 Contruccion -0.02 0.08 -0.07 -0.0110 Comercio -2.55 0.39 2.4 0.25

11 Svces -45.35 27.99 16.48 -0.89Total -76.36 52.78 23.19 -0.38

Cambio % en las Exportaciones

qxw Paraguay ALCA ROWSoja 8.32 -0.07 -0.06

RAgric 8.02 0.01 0Ganaderia 5.39 0.02 0

Carne 16.71 -0.02 -0.01Food 12.53 0.04 0

Textiles 25.63 0.02 0FuelMiner -14.02 0 0

Mnfcs 25.35 0.01 0Contruccion 15.98 -0.01 0Comercio 9.55 0 0

Svces 10.64 -0.01 0

Aumento de la Productividad Total de

Factores en 5%

Cambio % en el PIB real

qgdp (Sim) Paraguay 20.21 7,206 8,662 1,456ALCA 0.00 12,790,358 12,790,347 -11ROW 0.00 18,480,852 18,480,840 -12

Descomposición del Bienestar

WELFARE 1 alloc_A1 2 endw_B1 3 tech_C1 4 pop_D1 5 tot_E1 6 IS_F1 7 pref_G1 Total1 Paraguay 95.2 532.97 824.98 0 -7.49 10.39 0 1456.05

2 ALCA -10.86 -0.61 0 0 18.67 -1.19 0 63 ROW -12 0 0 0 -11.27 -9.14 0 -32.41Total 72.34 532.35 824.98 0 -0.1 0.06 0 1429.64

Cambio % en las Exportacionesqxw Paraguay ALCA ROWSoja 2.49 -0.03 -0.02

RAgric -6.74 0.01 0.01Ganaderia -4.74 0.01 0

Carne 9.45 -0.02 0Food 14.21 0.03 0

Textiles 30.7 0 0FuelMiner 9.31 0.02 0

Mnfcs 22.32 0.01 0Contruccion 18.82 -0.01 0Comercio -2.74 0 0.01

Svces -1.64 0 0.01

Cambio % en el VA sectorialqva Paraguay ALCA ROWSoja -0.94 -0.02 0

RAgric 3 0 0Ganaderia 10.09 0 0

Carne 12.52 0 0Food 11.44 0 0

Textiles 18.59 0 0FuelMiner 13.93 0 0

Mnfcs 19.43 0 0Contruccion 26.47 0 0Comercio 8.67 0 0

Svces 3.77 0 0

Aumento de la Productividad Total de Factores en el Sector

Primario en 10%

Cambio % en el PIB real

qgdp (Sim) Paraguay 5.97 7,206 7,636 430ALCA 0.00 12,790,358 12,790,445 87ROW 0.00 18,480,852 18,480,868 16

Descomposición del Bienestar

WELFARE 1 alloc_A1 2 endw_B1 3 tech_C1 4 pop_D1 5 tot_E1 6 IS_F1 7 pref_G1 Total1 Paraguay 33.1 156 240.03 0 -20.64 -1.35 0 407.15

2 ALCA 39.55 47.72 0 0 5.02 3.1 0 95.393 ROW 15.39 0 0 0 15.61 -1.75 0 29.26Total 88.05 203.72 240.03 0 0 0 0 531.8

Cambio % en el VA sectorialqva Paraguay ALCA ROWSoja 16.65 -0.26 -0.07

RAgric 0 -0.01 -0.01Ganaderia -1.51 0 0

Carne 7.99 0 0Food 4.55 0 0

Textiles 4.75 0 0FuelMiner 0.28 0 0

Mnfcs 1.05 0 0Contruccion 7.14 0 0Comercio 2.73 0 0

Svces 0.02 0 0

RESUMEN COMPORTAMIENTO

PRINCIPALES VARIABLES

Comparación PIB (Experimentos)qgdp ALCA Subsidio 10% X Aumento PTF 5% Aum. PTF SP 10%

Exp1 Exp2 Exp3 Exp4Paraguay 0.65 2.42 20.21 5.97

ALCA 0 0 0 0ROW 0 0 0 0

Comparación Bienestar (Experimentos)EV ALCA Subsidio 10% X Aumento PTF 5% Aum. PTF SP 10%

Exp1 Exp2 Exp3 Exp4Paraguay 60.21 89.78 1456.05 407.15

ALCA 60.28 122.46 6 95.39ROW -22.2 22.49 -32.41 29.26

MUCHAS MUCHAS GRACIASGRACIAS

Sources of welfare changesThere are basically 4 major sources for any given welfare change:1. Allocative efficiency effect: Welfare may increase or decrease due to reallocation of the existing resources. e.g. moving labor from the food sector to the manufacturing sector.2. Endowment Effect: Welfare may change as a result of a change in the amount of resource endowments. e.g. an increase in the region's arable land endowment as a result of favorable climate change. Because endowments are typically exogenous in GTAP, we don't attempt to explain why they have risen or fallen. This is obviously a limitation.3. Technology Effect: Welfare may increase due to technological improvements. e.g. Labor may become more productive due to training, mechanization, etc. Once again, since technology is exogenously specified, we don't explain the source (and potential costs) of this improvement.4. Terms of Trade (TOT) Effect: Welfare may change as a result of more/less favourable prices of exports/imports of a region due to trade policy reforms, or changes in supply and demand conditions. This only plays a role when the economy in question is open: in a closed economy model, there are no exports or imports. In GTAP model the Equivalent Variation (EV) is employed as the welfare indicator, where a positive EV indicates a welfare gain, and a negative EV indicates a welfare loss. Zero EV implies that there is no welfare gain or loss.