panut manoonvoravong bureau of research development and hydrology department of water resources
TRANSCRIPT
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Panut ManoonvoravongBureau of research development and hydrologyDepartment of water resources
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This model was funded by World Bank in May 2009 for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) to assist the Thai Government to develop policy tools for adapting to climate change impacts on the
water and natural resources of the Mekong River Basin
building local knowledge and capacity on climate change
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The pilot area for the HAE model development project was set in Kong-Chi-Mun the Northeast of Thailand basins (the sub-basin areas of lower Mekong tributaries).
The models are required to assess the impact of climate change on:a) the hydrologic regime,b) water usage,c) agricultural production andd) socio-economic conditions.
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TopographyTopography
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The ECHAM climate model has been developed from the ECMWF atmospheric
model. It provided a future climate scenario data of a spatial resolution approximates to about 2.8º longitude/latitude and the time-step of 24 minutes.The model condition based on the emission scenario of IPCC SRES A2 & B2.
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To provide the future climate scenario data based on ECHAM4 GCM’s future Climate data and the emission scenarios of IPCC SRES A2 & B2.
6 variables used in the HAE model are precipitation (mm) max & min temperature (Degree Celsius) solar radiation (MJ/m2) Relative humidity Wind speed (m/s)
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Future climate projection using PRECIS model
Precipitation PRECIS vs. Observation Future Precipitation Change A2 & B2
Other Meteorological Parameters PRECIS vs. Observation Future Change A2 & B2
Evapotranspiration
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Baseline PRECIS data
Observation in term of climatology
To find the bias adjustment coefficient for PRECIS data
com
pari
son
Bias adjusted climate scenario data
PRECIS’ baseline & future climate scenario data
HAE model
To apply for the future climate scenario data
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13 observation stations of TMD were selected to compare with PRECIS simulation
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PRECIS
ObservedTo Interpolate into each grid
an approach in which variable bias adjustment was applied to the PRECIS data depending upon the ranking of the PRECIS simulated data amongst all rain-day events in a particular month
0.2 Grid
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The approach developed was based on monthly corrections to PRECIS data determined from the differences between the mean monthly observed and PRECIS simulated data at the 13 TMD stations.
By using adjusted PRECIS meteorological data, Daily potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the FAO Penman method. Data were calculated on each of the PRECIS grids.
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Summary of future climate change in Kong-Chi-Mun basin
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Summary of future climate scenarios
(Increase) No change (Decrease)
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SWAT ModelTime Series Routed Mean Daily Flows at Selected Locations
Associated Rating Curve
Associated Flood Depth
Flood Depth-Area TableFor Location
Associated Flood Area and Duration
Annual Loss Calculations
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Data requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop modelData requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop model
2.1 Weather data
2.2 Soil data
2.3 Crops and crop management practices
Time Frame
Baseline (BS,
1980-2009)
Future A2 (2050s,
2040-2069)
Future B2 (2050s,
2040-2069)
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Data requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop modelData requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop model
2.1 Weather data
2.2 Soil data
2.3 Crops and crop management practices
Figure 2.5 Soil group in the basinsFigure 2.5 Soil group in the basins
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Agriculture
Flood Damage Hydropower
Time SeriesNet Production Values
Time SeriesFlood DamagesDirect/Indirect
Time SeriesNet Production Values
Present Value ofProduction
Annual Damages Present Value ofProduction
Present Value Adaptation and Mitigation Costs
Benefit : Cost Ratios of Adaptation and Mitigation Measures
Revised Present Value Production and Damages with Mitigation
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