Asian Science and Technology Asian Science and Technology Seminar Seminar in Mongolia in Mongolia ““Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Earthquake Disaster Mitigation –– Research and Practice in MongoliaResearch and Practice in Mongolia””

7 March 2007 7 March 2007

Panel Discussion Panel Discussion ““How to Mitigate Natural Disasters How to Mitigate Natural Disasters through Science and Technologythrough Science and Technology””

Kenji Okazaki National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)

Japan

10 Major Disasters (fatalities) in the last 30 years10 Major Disasters (fatalities) in the last 30 years

　　　Nation 　Disaster 　　Year 　 DeathChina Earthquake 1976 290,000Colombia Volcano 1985 21,000Armenia Earthquake 1988 25,000Iran Earthquake 1990 35,000Bangladesh Cycl/flood 1991 140,000Venezuela Flood 1999 30,000India Earthquake 2001 20,000Iran Earthquake 2003 27,000Indonesia, others Eq/tsunami 2004 over 280,000Pakistan Earthquake 2005 over 80,000

Securing safety of vernacular houses is crucialSecuring safety of vernacular houses is crucial

Most of houses around the world are nonMost of houses around the world are non--engineered, engineered, being vulnerable to earthquakes.being vulnerable to earthquakes.In earthquakes, most of the victims are killed by their In earthquakes, most of the victims are killed by their own houses. own houses. Loss of houses magnified the impact of disastersLoss of houses magnified the impact of disastersFinancial burden of governments caused by destruction Financial burden of governments caused by destruction of houses is huge.of houses is huge.

Adobe Stones Bricks

Securing housing safety is crucial and Securing housing safety is crucial and technically easy, but technically easy, but ------

Current vicious cycle for Current vicious cycle for unsaferunsafer houseshouses

Support for recovery locally, nationally,

internationally

No incentive for safer houses

Increase of vulnerable houses

Large casualty/damage in earthquakes

Securing housing safety is crucial and Securing housing safety is crucial and technically easy, hence technically easy, hence ------

Proposed cycle for safer housesProposed cycle for safer houses

Support for safer houses locally, nationally,

internationally

Strong incentive for safer houses

Increase of safer houses

Decrease of victims and recovery cost

Resource allocation for housing safetyResource allocation for housing safety

Engineered

Non-engineered

Engineered vs. Non-engineered

Resource allocation Lives that could be saved

Resource allocation for disaster managementResource allocation for disaster management

New construction

Existing houses

Resource allocation Lives that could be saved

New construction vs. Existing houses

Individual decision making is crucial for Individual decision making is crucial for disaster managementdisaster management

Few house owners invest for improvement of housesFew house owners invest for improvement of housesEven with financial assistance for retrofitting from the Even with financial assistance for retrofitting from the governments in Japan, people would not retrofit their governments in Japan, people would not retrofit their houses. houses. -- Unless every house owner makes decision to invest in Unless every house owner makes decision to invest in improvement of safety of the house, earthquake loss improvement of safety of the house, earthquake loss cannot be reduced.cannot be reduced.

Few people evacuate immediately after warningFew people evacuate immediately after warningAfter recent tsunami warning, 90 % did not evacuate After recent tsunami warning, 90 % did not evacuate (stay home) in Japan. (stay home) in Japan. -- Unless every person makes decision to evacuate Unless every person makes decision to evacuate immediately, the warning system would not be effective. immediately, the warning system would not be effective.

What motivates people for actions What motivates people for actions towards safety?towards safety?

Understanding their future risk (loss of house and life)Understanding their future risk (loss of house and life)-- Probability of disastersProbability of disasters-- Vulnerability of houses and livesVulnerability of houses and lives-- Reliability of informationReliability of informationDecreasing the cost to secure safetyDecreasing the cost to secure safety-- Technology developmentTechnology development-- Financial and technical assistance Financial and technical assistance Policies to improve safety Policies to improve safety -- Appropriate regulations and guidance such as Building Appropriate regulations and guidance such as Building Codes and its enforcementCodes and its enforcement-- Political commitment for safetyPolitical commitment for safety

How can science and technology contribute for How can science and technology contribute for

individual motivation?individual motivation?Understanding their future risk (loss of house and life)Understanding their future risk (loss of house and life)

✔✔ Probability of disastersProbability of disasters→→ Contribute little as the probability is very lowContribute little as the probability is very low

✔✔ Vulnerability of houses and livesVulnerability of houses and lives→→ Contribute a lot through practical assessment tools and Contribute a lot through practical assessment tools and

educationeducation? Reliability of information? Reliability of information

→→ Risk communication by trusted expertsRisk communication by trusted experts→→ Ownership of the risk through participatory processOwnership of the risk through participatory process

Decreasing the cost to secure safetyDecreasing the cost to secure safety✔✔ Technology developmentTechnology development

-- Applicable and affordable technologies for local communities Applicable and affordable technologies for local communities ? Financial and technical assistance? Financial and technical assistance

-- Subsidy or low interest loanSubsidy or low interest loan-- Training and technical consultation Training and technical consultation

How can science and technology contribute for How can science and technology contribute for individual motivation?individual motivation?

Policies to improve safety Policies to improve safety ✔✔ Appropriate regulations and guidance such as Appropriate regulations and guidance such as

Building Codes and its enforcementBuilding Codes and its enforcement-- Development of technical requirements Development of technical requirements reflecting the local conditionsreflecting the local conditions

? Political commitment for safety? Political commitment for safety-- Development of policies in favor of those who Development of policies in favor of those who invest for safety invest for safety -- Funds for such policies can be mobilized from Funds for such policies can be mobilized from resources to be allocated for relief and resources to be allocated for relief and recovery/reconstruction.recovery/reconstruction.

Involvement of scientists and engineers Involvement of scientists and engineers

Reliability of informationReliability of informationFinancial and technical assistanceFinancial and technical assistancePolitical commitment for safetyPolitical commitment for safety

>>> Community Based Disaster Management >>> Community Based Disaster Management

-- Risk communication with every community Risk communication with every community member by trusted expertsmember by trusted experts-- Trust and ownership through participatory Trust and ownership through participatory processprocess-- Local governments or NGOs can provide Local governments or NGOs can provide financial and technical assistancefinancial and technical assistance

RADIUS Project (1996RADIUS Project (1996--1999)1999)Motivation of local people for urban seismic reductionMotivation of local people for urban seismic reduction

Capacity buildingCapacity buildingAwareness raisingAwareness raising-- Local leadership and Local leadership and ownershipownership-- Commitment of local Commitment of local governments and governments and scientistsscientists-- Risk communication Risk communication between international between international experts and local peopleexperts and local people

Earthquake damage scenarios and action plans were developed by local people in 9 cities worldwide

A training seminar in Japan Interview with police officers in Zigong

Disaster seminar for students in Bandung Action Plan Workshop in Tashkent

Simplified tool for damage estimationSimplified tool for damage estimation

Input: Area, population, building types, (ground conditions)

Output: Building damage, Human loss/injury

RADIUS initiatives are sustainableRADIUS initiatives are sustainable

Some local partnerships sustain and efforts continueSkopje adopted RADIUS recommendations in Master Plan.Guayaquil created a new Division for Disaster Mitigation.Bandung changed its building permit process.Antofagasta generated US$ 1 million to remove schools from Tsunami areas.Tijuana created an NGO called RADIUS.Tijuana organizes a RADIUS meeting every month. It had 76th meeting last week (August 2006). Experience is transferred to neighboring cities.

PNY PNY PantankaPantanka NewNew--Life ProjectLife Project

Rehabilitation after Gujarat Earthquake of January 2001Rehabilitation after Gujarat Earthquake of January 2001Focus on nonFocus on non--engineered constructionengineered construction

UNCRD with EDM, NCPDP, NGOs Kobe, NSET-Nepal, and SEEDS

TrainingEducationAwarenessConfidence

Understanding vulnerability and learning Understanding vulnerability and learning practical technologiespractical technologies

Motivation and capacity building by ShakeMotivation and capacity building by Shake-- Table Table Demonstration (by UNCRD + NSET Nepal)Demonstration (by UNCRD + NSET Nepal)

Brick masonry, after Bam Earthquake, Iran, 2004

Wooden structure, Kobe, Japan, 2005Wooden structure, Kobe, Japan, 2005

Education plays an important roleEducation plays an important role

For people to understand their own risk (what will For people to understand their own risk (what will be lost in case of disasters)be lost in case of disasters) and to take and to take appropriate actions appropriate actions

For governments to develop appropriate policies, For governments to develop appropriate policies, reflecting local conditionsreflecting local conditions

To foster experts who can communicate with local To foster experts who can communicate with local people with professional knowledge and laymenpeople with professional knowledge and laymen’’s s language language

School Earthquake Safety Initiative School Earthquake Safety Initiative Fiji, India, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan by UNCRD

Retrofit

• Strengthen school buildings (retrofitting)• Technology transfer and training of masons/engineers• Disaster education Children are good messengers to families and communities

Master Program for Disaster Mitigation GRIPS (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) BRI (Building Research Institute) JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency)

Graduates of Training Courses on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology

●：Epicenters of earthquakes 1990-1999○：Number of Graduates from the training course

More than 1,200 graduates in 95 countries (2005)

Thank you !Thank you !

A single death is a tragedy, a million death is a statistic.

Joseph Stalin

Kenji OkazakiProfessorNational Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 106-8677 JapanTel: 03-6439-6214 Fax: 03-6439-6010Web: http://www.grips.ac.jp