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Cross Value Innovation-Case Study CompetitionByPanasonic & Niche (IIM-A)Team Name SIGMA

National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai

Team Members Priyanci Singh +91-9930252270 Salil Parashar +91-9167478967

Smart meters can be very successful in India, and there are many opportunities to improve existing grid systems. Already, several state governments in India have invited proposals from vendors to implement a smart meter system. OBJECTIVEThere are some progress in Smart metering across utilities at pilot level, however, there is a significant infrastructural development and capacity building issues which need to be addressed before planning a large scale implementation of the projectThe Energy Efficiency and the Smart Grid industries will see a rapid growth as the demand grows for reducing global greenhouse emissions, increasing amounts of renewable energy integration into the grid and rising prices of fossil fuels.CASE OVERVIEW AND APPROACHTo forecast the demand of Smart Energy Meter and Prepaid Energy Meter in India for the years 2015-2018 i.e. for next four years.

We have studied current smart metering scenario in India focusing on the adoption scenario and the preparedness of the meter manufacturers and other solution providers in India.BACKGROUNG STUDYWith the tremendous demand for electricity in India, government has taken initiatives to harness the power of information and communication technologies to plug leakages, improved efficiencies and create a Smart Grid for India which would not only meet the future electricity needs of the country but also transform the entire, transmission and distribution infrastructure in the country.India Smart Grid Forum (ISGF) is a public private initiative of the Ministry of Power (MoP), Government of India for accelerated development of smart grid technologies in the Indian power sector. Smart energy meters (Prepaid meter) demand, hence directly depend on successfulness of this government project since the drivers for the smart metering include reduction in meter reading and revenue realization cycle, identification of fraudulent practice and necessary correction, reduction of peak demand through systematic load reduction, better customer services, assistance in reduction in grid failure.At present, the number of smart energy meters deployed in India, exist in pilot projects only, and is miniscule and does not even represent a percent of the total number of meters, which is about 200 million.Fourteen smart grid pilot projects in different distribution companies have been shortlisted for funding by Indias Ministry of Power, on the recommendations of the India Smart Grid Task Force. The funding for these projects has been allocated in the five year plan which runs through 2017.Name of Government electricity Board(states)Number of consumerCESC (Karnataka) 21,800 consumers Andhra Pradesh (Telangana) CPDCL 11,900 consumersAssam PDCL 15,000 consumersGujarat VCL 39,400 consumersMaharashtra SEDCL 25,600 consumersHaryana BVN 30,500 consumersTripura SECL 46,000 consumersHimachal Pradesh SEB 650 industrial consumersPuducherry electricity department 87,000 consumersJVVNL (Rajasthan) 2,600 consumersChattisgarh SPDCL 500 industrial consumersPunjab SPCL 9,000 consumers Kerala SEB25,000 industrial consumersWest Bengal SEDCL 4,400 consumers

Source: www.indiasmartgrid.org, ISGF Smart Grid Bulletin - Vol 2 Issue 2 (Feb 2015)

INDIAN MARKET ANALYSIS & GLOBAL COMPARISIONThe Global Smart Grid market size in 2013 was $151 billion as suggested by ZPryme Research Consulting This is estimated to reach $200 billion by 2015 at a CAGR of 17.395. It is known that the Indian Electric Grid infrastructure is very similar to the US Electric Grid. We expect money spent on modernizing the grid and making it intelligent (by investing in Communications/IT, Distribution & Storage and Grid Optimizing) would follow similar patterns as the US. Around 5.9 million people in the UK have a prepayment energy meterAs per industry reports, India is expected to install 130 million smart meters by 2021.We have assumed that the India, smart grid market size can be expressed as a %age of the US market size from 2010-2015, but with a time lag due to India's late entry in this arena.National Smart Grid Mission (NSGM) by Indian Smart Grid Forum aims for Quality Power on Demand for All by 2027. Hence the Roadmap set by the NSGM says the target to be achieved in 3 phases. These 3 phases are divided on the basis of Five Year Plan(FY)12th Plan (2012 2017) : Standards Development for Smart Grids including EVs Installation of pilot smart grid in selected locations 13th Plan (2017 2022) : Nationwide Smart meter roll out Exports of SG products, solution and services to overseas14th Plan (2022 2027) : Nationwide Smart meter roll out Exports of SG products, solution and services to overseasSource: www.indiasmartgrid.org, ISGF -Smart Grid Roadmaps of various countries and India -20 July 2012 -final draft

APPLIED TOOLS FOR DEMAND FORECASTINGGlobal MarketUS MarketUS v/s India Smart Grid MarketIndia smart grid market2009-2017Demand from 20152017-2022Demand till 2018Demand for Smart meter from 2015-18Year Global (USD billion) US (USD billion) India market * India (USD billion) 200969.321.40%0201089.725.71%0.32011110.1305%1.52012130.534.310%3.4201315138.617%6.62014171.442.826%11.120152005037%18.52016216.9153.0838%20.42017238.2157.6945%25.72018259.5162.2951%31.6

+=This Table shows the Smart Grid, Global Market size as well as of The United States (in USD billion). This data is used to forecast the market size of India, as Indian market size can be expressed as percentage of US market size from 2009- 2015.We have applied Regression Analysis Method to estimate Indian market share till 2018.This Market share estimation is used to forecast demand of Smart Meter in second phase of Smart Grid Project i.e. 13th FY plan(2017-2022).

CONCLUSIONSSmart energy meters can be very successful in India, and hence its manufacturers are going to have a huge potential market in the coming years. The entire demand of Smart Energy Meters and Prepaid Energy Meter has arisen due to governments initiative towards Smart Grids Implementation.Total demand of smart energy meter because of GoIs Smart Grid project is estimated to be for 319350 consumers including both industrial area and household.Demand afterwards follows the trend of US Market which is found to be 31.6 USD Billion in 2018.Thank You

Sources: Percentages indicated are reasonable estimates based on needs, size of economy and lag in implementation of the Smart Grid in India; Indias market size was calculated using the assumed %ages and their corresponding US market sizes.; Source : ZPryme Research consulting ; http://www.zpryme.com