pakistan weekly update kstocksmartresearch.akdtrade.com/documents/stock_smart_weekly... · pakistan...
TRANSCRIPT
AKD Research [email protected]
+92-21-111-253-111
Weekly Review
Failing to consolidate gains made during the last week, the KSE-100 index gave way to wider macro jitters, amidst an uncertain foreign exchange reserve picture, closing the week at 40,869pts down 1.9%WoW. With the first round of negotiations between the IMF and Paki-stani authorities being inconclusive over fundamental differences on measures to address fiscal imbalances, and GoP expectations of funding from 'friendly countries' failing to mate-rialize, sentiment leaned to favor the bears. During the four session trading week, KSE-100/KSE-All index average volumes stood at 76.58/156.8mn shares per day, moving -35/-26%WoW with KSE-100 volumes averaging 48.8% of total ready market volumes, indicating a shift away from index heavy weights to retail favorites. Key news flows during the week were: 1) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) viewed policy uncertainty and economic imbalances as risks to growth saying that its growth forecasts would slide to 4% in the cur-rent fiscal year from a decade-high of 5.8% in FY18, 2) Pakistan could face a tough time in the coming years as the delegation of Asia Pacific Group (APG)—a subsidiary of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) during its recent visit rated Pakistan partially/non-compliant in 33 out of 40 recommendations, and 3) Prime Minister Imran Khan on Monday led a sharp reac-tion by political leaders to US President Donald Trump's tirade against Pakistan by hinting at review of foreign policy options. CHCC (+9.1%WoW), LUCK (+5.1%WoW) and PIOC (+1.4%WoW) topped the leaderboard during the week, whereas POL (-8.2%WoW), HBL (-5.7%WoW) and DGKC (-5.4%WoW) were laggards. Volume leaders during the week were: 1) LOTCHEM (51.2mn shares), 2) EPCL (36.0mn shares), 3) NRSL (32.4mn shares) and 4) PAEL (32.1mn shares). FIPI outflows reached US$11.6mn, taking MTD outflows to US$48.8mn, marking a continuation a multi-year high outflows from the domestic equity market.
StockSmart
AKD Equity Research / Pakistan
Pakistan Weekly Update
Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Important disclosures
Copyright©2018 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.
www.akdsecurities.net
AKD Securities
TREC Holder & Registered Broker
Pakistan Stock Exchange
REP-019
Find AKD research on Bloomberg
(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com and Reuters Knowledge
As IMF negotiations get delayed, investor expectations of FX reserve funding from China, Saudi Arabia would deliver some welcomed relief. Additionally, expectations of monetary tightening should start factoring into sentiments surrounding commercial banks as the bi-monthly MPS date approaches (expected by 1st Dec). Lastly, the end to the trading year could give rise to calendar-end window dressing, where institutional inflows accelerate in a bid to close books on a promising note.
23 November 2018
Outlook
Index & Volume Chart
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Universe Gainers & Losers
41,353 41,419
40,874
40,869
40,500
40,600
40,700
40,800
40,900
41,000
41,100
41,200
41,300
41,400
41,500
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
19-Nov 20-Nov 22-Nov 23-Nov
(Index)(Shrs'000)
Ready Volume (LHS) KSE100 Index (RHS)
Top-5 Volume Leaders
Symbol Volume (mn)
LOTCHEM : 51.18
EPCL : 36.01
NRSL : 32.40
PAEL : 32.05
STPL : 29.74
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Indices KSE-100 KSE-30
This week 40,869 19,443
Last week 41,661 19,959
Indices KMI-30 Allshare
This week 69,777 29,501
Last week 71,304 30,020
Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn
This week 8,096 60.42
Last week 8,235 61.46
Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)
This week 156.89
Last week 213.36
Change -26.47%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
CH
CC
LUC
K
PIO
C
AST
L
MC
B
OG
DC
KEL
DG
KC
HB
L
PO
L
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
0
55
110
165
220
275
330
385
440
495
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Apr-
18
Ma
y-18
Jun-1
8
Jul-1
8
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct
-18
Nov-1
8
(Index)(share mn)
Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index
AKD Securities Limited
23 November 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
2
Nov 22, 2018
Pakistan Oil & Gas: Wider Oil price swings are here to stay, (AKD Daily, Nov 23, 2018)
Crude price forecasts have been described as a swinging pendulum, shifting from bullish to bearish, which off-late has accelerated to a point where volatility is the new norm as fore-casts shift at a rapid pace, often on shifty data points and comments made by key decision makers.
Moreover, heightening tensions from global trade tussles, particularly between the US and China, cloud global growth outlooks with noticeable declines in global consumer confidence and moderating PMI data dampen bullish sentiments in Crude.
Citing recent weakness in crude benchmarks as a sign of possible weakness to continue, we highlight the potential for improved macros (US$5/bbl reduction in Crude saves US$1.1bn in the trade bill), while domestic refiners could benefit from shifting dynamics in international cracks for mid distillates.
Advocating a 'buy-on-dips' stance for domestic E&Ps, where any indication of major cuts in the upcoming OPEC meeting (6th Dec) could signal another rally we reiterate our BUY call on OGDC (TP of PkR180/sh) providing total return potential of 32% (inclusive of 7.7% FY19 D/Y).
Pakistan Strategy Market at a crossroad, (AKD Daily, Nov 22, 2018)
Inconclusive IMF talks have extended market uncertainty, however, a lack of definitive bear-ish movement indicates money managers factoring in eventual money flow from different avenues (Saudi, Chinese and IMF).
Timing of fund flows, however, is crucial and holds the key to market direction where nega-tive narrative on fund flow is being countered by positive narrative on eventuality of the same as well as economic benefit of current low oil price (US$5/bbl correction in oil reduces trade bill by US$1.1bn ceteris paribus).
Historical average returns post an IMF program have been slight positive in the 60 and 90 days prior to entry. Current economic situation somewhat resonates with 2001 with IMF program a constant and aid flow from US replaced by China and Saudia, though the back-ground of aid is different.
Highlight defensive plays given uncertainty where picks include Banks (MCB, ABL), select Power (HUBC), Fertilizers (EFERT) and Autos (INDU).
Pakistan Auto: Increased competition = increased CAPEX, (AKD Daily, Nov 19, 2018)
An analysis of updated financial accounts for auto OEMs reveals a clear upswing in industry CAPEX with the last twelve month total outlay reaching PkR7.6bn with PSMC/INDU/HCAR contributing 46/38/16%.
Looking at CAPEX outlays for the three major OEMS, we find that INDU and HCAR maintain higher investment levels per model sold (reflected in frequent model launches, better fea-tures), while PSMC has recently caught up, with CY18 CAPEX/unit hitting levels seen in HCAR (PkR28.4k/unit).
On the other hand, CAPEX is reflected in poor free cash flows, where a historic analysis of cash flows show that variations in net working capital (movement of current assets and liabilities) are a greater threat, where pressures from the same forced PSMC to acquire ST borrowing to fill the gap.
We believe the wheels are in motion for introduction of a new variant (most likely the Alto) to replace the Mehran, with investment in Techno Glass (subsidiary to manufacture wind-shields) offering additional catalysts. Our Dec'19 TP of PkR313/sh (risk free rate/risk premi-um of 13/6%) offers a total return of 28% to last close, while the stock trades at a relatively inexpensive CY19 P/E of 5.1x
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Nov 23, 2018
Nov 19, 2018
Nov 20, 2018
40,640
40,678
40,716
40,754
40,792
40,830
40,868
40,906
40,944
9:1
5
9:3
9
10:0
2
10:2
6
10:4
9
11:1
3
11:3
6
12:0
0
12:2
3
12:4
7
13:1
0
13:3
3
13:5
7
14:2
0
14:4
4
15:0
7
15:3
1
15:5
4
16:1
8
40,700
40,780
40,860
40,940
41,020
41,100
41,180
41,260
41,340
41,420
41,500
9:3
0
9:5
3
10:1
7
10:4
0
11:0
4
11:2
7
11:5
1
12:1
4
12:3
8
13:0
1
13:2
5
13:4
8
14:1
2
14:3
5
14:5
9
15:2
3
41,200
41,240
41,280
41,320
41,360
41,400
41,440
41,480
41,520
9:3
0
9:5
4
10:1
9
10:4
4
11:0
8
11:3
3
11:5
8
12:2
3
12:4
7
13:1
2
13:3
7
14:0
1
14:2
6
14:5
1
15:1
5
41,150
41,220
41,290
41,360
41,430
41,500
41,570
41,640
41,710
9:3
0
9:5
4
10:1
9
10:4
4
11:0
8
11:3
3
11:5
8
12:2
2
12:4
7
13:1
2
13:3
6
14:0
1
14:2
6
14:5
0
15:1
5
AKD Securities Limited
23 November 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
4
Commodities
International Major Currencies
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Major World Indices’ Performance
Source: Bloomberg
TRJ-CRB Index
Source: Bloomberg
PkR/US$ Trend
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Valuations (2019)
Source: AKD Research & Bloomberg
103.0
106.0
109.0
112.0
115.0
118.0
121.0
124.0
127.0
130.0
133.0
136.0
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Feb
-18
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
Apr-
18
May-
18
Jun-1
8
Jul-18
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct-18
Nov-
18
SPOT Units 23-Nov-18 16-Nov-18 WoW CYTD
TRJ-CRB Points 185.0005 187.2971 -1.23% -4.17%
Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 52.23 56.46 -7.49% -12.72%
ICE Brent US$/bbl. 60.18 66.32 -9.26% -9.35%
N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 4.7 4.3 9.30% 58.54%
Cotton USd/Pound 86.75 86.3 0.52% -3.18%
Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1223.22 1221.5 0.14% -5.54%
Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 14.2769 14.41 -0.92% -15.33%
Copper US$/MT 6286.25 6223.5 1.01% -13.34%
Platinum US$/Oz 842.98 845.52 -0.30% -9.16%
Coal US$/MT 93.55 93.75 -0.21% -1.89%
SPOT 23-Nov-18 16-Nov-18 Chg +/- WoW CYTD
Dollar Index 96.805 96.465 0.340 0.35% 4.54%
USD/PkR 134.000 134.000 0.000 0.00% 21.32%
USD/JPY 112.820 112.830 -0.010 -0.01% -0.04%
EUR/USD 1.136 1.142 -0.006 -0.52% -4.92%
GBP/USD 1.283 1.283 -0.001 -0.05% -4.57%
AUD/USD 0.723 0.733 -0.010 -1.39% -7.24%
NZD/USD 0.678 0.688 -0.010 -1.41% -4.28%
CHF/USD 0.997 1.000 -0.003 -0.34% 1.83%
CAD/USD 1.323 1.315 0.008 0.59% 5.21%
USD/KRW 1,131 1,129 1.900 0.17% 5.59%
CNY/USD 6.947 6.938 0.009 0.13% 6.33%
Country Bloomberg Code 23-Nov-18 16-Nov-18 WoW CYTD
Pakistan KSE100 Index 40,869 41,661 -1.90% 1.2%
Srilanka CSEALL Index 5,930 5,955 -0.43% -6.8%
Thailand SET Index 1,622 1,635 -0.79% -7.0%
Indonesia JCI Index 6,006 6,012 -0.10% -4.9%
Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,696 1,706 -0.62% -4.7%
Philippines PCOMP Index 7,340 7,083 3.63% -14.0%
Vietnam VNINDEX Index 918 898 2.20% -6.0%
Hong Kong HSI Index 25,928 26,184 -0.98% -13.2%
Singapore FSSTI Index 3,052 3,084 -1.01% -10.2%
Brazil IBX Index 36,074 36,529 -1.25% 14.1%
Russia RTSSTD Index 15,605 15,826 -1.39% 14.5%
India SENSEX Index 34,981 35,457 -1.34% 3.3%
S&P SPX Index 2,650 2,736 -3.16% -1.4%
DJIA INDU Index 24,465 25,413 -3.73% -1.5%
UK UKX Index 6,954 7,014 -0.86% -8.8%
Germany DAX Index 11,149 11,341 -1.69% -14.1%
Qatar DSM Index 10,328 10,214 1.12% 21.1%
Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 4,985 5,055 -1.40% 13.3%
Dubai DFMGI Index 2,755 2,779 -0.86% -18.3%
Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 6,633 6,633 0.00% 3.5%
Oman MSM30 Index 4,453 4,451 0.06% -11.8%
Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 7,607 7,662 -0.72% 5.2%
MSCI EM MXEF Index 976 986 -1.05% -15.4%
MSCI FM MXFM Index 528 528 -0.03% -17.1%
EPS Growth PE(x)
Pakistan 20.12% 6.56
Indonesia 8.94% 13.80
Malaysia 13.83% 13.97
Philippines 6.26% 15.57
Vitenam 12.60% 15.31
India 24.68% 16.10
China 12.42% 9.29
% ROE Divd Yld
Pakistan 15.4% 6.90
Indonesia 15.11 2.46
Malaysia 10.23 3.54
Philippines 11.55 1.85
Vitenam 18.57 1.68
India 15.09 1.78
China 11.43 3.40
180
183
186
189
192
195
198
201
204
207
Nov-
17
Dec-
17
Jan-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
May-
18
Jun-1
8
Jul-18
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct-18
Nov-
18
5
AKD Securities Limited
23 November 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Chart Bank
FIPI Flows for the week
Advance to Decline Ratio
AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index
LIPI Flows for the week
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential
KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
No
v-1
8
KSE100 MSCI EM
MSCI FM
(4,435)
(3,742)
(2,084)
(1,341)
(5,000)
(4,500)
(4,000)
(3,500)
(3,000)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
-
19-Nov-18 20-Nov-18 22-Nov-18 23-Nov-18
(US$'000)
-1.70
-1.30
-0.90
-0.50
-0.10
0.30
0.70
1.10
No
v-17
Dec
-17
Jan-
18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
(%)
Ind., (0.22)
Co., (3.00)
Bank/DFI, 4.06
NBFC, (0.98)
M.Funds, 2.39
Ins, 7.98
Others, 2.02
Prop. Trading , (0.63)
(4.00)
(2.00)
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
Nov-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb
-18
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Nov-1
8
-23%
-18%
-13%
-8%
-3%
2%
7%
12%
17%
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
KSE-All Share Index AKD Universe
6
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Market PER Chart 2018
Source: AKD Research
23 November 2018
Jul-0
7
Jun-
08
May
-09
May
-10
Apr-1
1
Mar
-12
Mar
-13
Feb-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
Dec-
16
Nov-
17
Nov-
18
14.0
10.5
7.0
3.5
(x)
AKD Universe Valuations
Source: AKD Research
23-Nov-18 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
EPS (PkR) 7.87 7.41 8.30 9.58 11.62
EPS chg (%) 3.82 (5.90) 12.11 15.33 21.33
EPS chg (%) ex-E&P 19.21 (15.73) 8.71 7.92 34.48
Book Value per Share (PkR) 42.77 46.24 51.06 55.92 62.11
Payout (%) 47.09 47.46 48.16 62.28 52.47
Valuations
Price to Earnings (x) 7.98 8.48 7.56 6.56 5.40
PER (ex-E&P) (x) 6.91 8.19 7.54 6.98 5.19
Price to Book (x) 1.47 1.36 1.23 1.12 1.01
Price to CF (x) 10.27 9.79 7.90 8.24 6.85
Earnings Yield (%) 12.54 11.80 13.22 15.25 18.51
Dividend Yield (%) 5.90 5.60 6.37 9.50 9.71
EV / EBITDA (x) 5.42 5.55 5.22 4.68 4.20
Profitability
Return on Equity (%) 18.40 16.02 16.26 17.12 18.70
Return on Assets (%) 3.75 3.07 3.32 3.52 3.94
Chg in Sales (%) (14.06) 18.71 16.01 8.96 3.79
Gross Margin (%) 32.87 35.23 34.49 35.58 37.08
Operating Margin (%) 21.45 24.85 24.92 26.13 27.23
Net Margin (%) 16.33 12.94 12.51 13.24 15.48
7
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Active Coverage Cluster’s Valuations
23 November 2018
Source: AKD Research UR Under Review
Stock Symbol Price TP Stance EPS(PkR) PE(x) PB(x) DY(%)
(PkR) (PkR) 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F
Automobile and Parts
Indus Motors INDU 1,348.82 1,866.00 Buy 165.41 200.66 195.42 8.15 6.72 6.90 3.40 2.89 2.49 8.53 10.38 9.04
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 243.95 346.64 Buy 46.49 38.11 32.58 5.25 6.40 7.49 0.68 0.63 0.60 7.62 7.62 4.10
Cements
DG Khan Cement DGKC 104.68 122.00 Buy 18.20 20.17 12.31 5.75 5.19 8.51 0.61 0.59 0.57 7.16 4.06 4.30
Lucky Cement LUCK 532.44 636.00 Buy 42.34 37.72 32.95 12.57 14.12 16.16 2.16 1.99 1.82 2.25 2.44 2.82
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 51.96 65.00 Buy 8.05 7.92 5.90 6.46 6.56 8.81 1.30 1.00 0.91 6.42 4.81 3.85
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 25.15 26.00 Neutral 1.89 2.49 2.36 13.28 10.12 10.68 1.76 1.69 1.65 3.58 7.95 7.95
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 54.58 60.00 Buy 12.84 7.24 6.92 4.25 7.54 7.89 1.01 0.91 0.72 10.08 7.46 6.41
Cherat Cement Co Limited CHCC 91.22 96.00 Sell 11.08 12.08 9.46 8.24 7.55 9.65 1.54 1.44 1.33 2.94 3.26 3.84
Gharibwal Cement Ltd GWLC 18.86 36.00 Buy 5.71 3.77 2.70 3.31 5.00 6.99 0.66 0.60 0.61 15.91 7.95 9.28
Cable & Electrical Goods
Pak Elektron Ltd PAEL 32.49 31.44 Sell 6.65 4.32 5.16 4.89 7.51 6.30 0.60 0.57 0.54 8.31 5.54 6.16
Engineering
Amreli Steels Ltd. ASTL 64.97 117.00 Buy 3.62 4.82 11.17 17.97 13.48 5.81 1.73 1.53 1.26 3.08 3.39 7.70
Fertilizers
Engro Corporation ENGRO 330.00 348.84 Neutral 20.47 21.56 27.91 16.12 15.31 11.82 2.09 2.06 1.98 6.36 6.06 6.67
Engro Fertilizers Limited EFERT 76.09 87.75 Buy 8.35 9.40 10.25 9.11 8.09 7.42 2.39 2.32 2.25 11.17 11.12 12.13
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 39.99 48.10 Buy 2.03 2.60 2.79 19.66 15.37 14.33 2.78 2.57 2.39 2.13 5.20 5.58
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 99.55 104.57 Neutral 8.42 8.75 10.22 11.82 11.38 9.74 4.31 3.84 3.65 7.03 7.87 8.94
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 34.00 45.11 Buy 5.06 5.44 6.00 6.72 6.25 5.67 1.31 1.21 1.12 6.62 11.19 12.35
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 83.01 84.20 Sell 0.75 1.19 1.22 110.96 69.52 67.87 3.44 3.25 3.05 - - -
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 143.79 180.00 Buy 14.83 18.00 23.36 9.69 7.99 6.15 1.21 1.10 0.98 4.17 6.95 5.74
Pak Oilfields POL 480.48 562.18 Buy 33.73 39.25 66.04 14.25 12.24 7.28 4.33 4.16 3.54 6.94 7.37 11.66
Pakistan Petroleum PPL 163.67 240.00 Buy 21.72 26.14 33.48 7.54 6.26 4.89 1.72 1.54 1.39 4.78 2.92 9.13
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 215.01 317.69 Buy 13.61 17.46 22.39 15.80 12.31 9.60 4.21 3.63 3.14 4.07 5.23 7.33
Attock Petroleum APL 498.31 601.08 Buy 53.24 56.83 52.53 9.36 8.77 9.49 3.04 2.76 2.54 8.53 8.03 7.42
Pakistan State Oil PSO 278.13 356.00 Buy 55.90 47.42 53.92 4.98 5.86 5.16 0.88 0.82 0.75 7.49 5.39 73.35
Power
Hub Power Co. HUBC 95.32 142.70 Buy 9.23 9.56 12.37 8.52 7.68 7.71 3.60 3.53 3.65 7.86 7.76 11.27
K-Electric Co. KEL UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 52.60 41.93 Sell 10.73 12.06 10.90 4.90 4.36 4.83 1.42 1.32 1.27 17.20 17.39 17.58
Personal Goods
Nishat Mills NML 145.91 169.10 Buy 12.12 14.47 17.09 12.04 10.08 8.54 0.58 0.56 0.54 3.43 4.45 5.31
Nishat Chunian Ltd. NCL 61.19 57.15 Sell 6.75 5.48 7.60 9.07 11.18 8.05 1.22 1.16 1.05 4.49 3.68 4.90
Banks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 103.14 121.50 Buy 11.29 12.77 14.93 9.14 8.07 6.91 1.11 1.05 0.98 6.79 7.76 8.73
Bank AlFalah BAFL 49.80 55.16 Neutral 5.30 6.39 6.84 9.40 7.79 7.28 1.21 1.10 0.97 3.01 3.01 3.01
Habib Bank Limited HBL 136.65 169.20 Buy 5.54 19.74 23.41 24.65 6.92 5.84 1.06 0.96 0.86 5.85 5.12 10.25
MCB Bank Limited MCB 200.02 234.16 Buy 18.53 18.82 23.30 10.79 10.63 8.58 1.51 1.43 1.37 8.00 8.00 8.50
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 49.71 57.74 Buy 10.97 9.86 10.61 4.53 5.04 4.68 0.59 0.48 0.45 - 11.06 17.10
United Bank Ltd UBL 139.13 210.60 Buy 21.39 16.58 23.62 6.50 8.39 5.89 0.98 0.94 0.90 9.34 10.06 10.06
8
AKD Securities Limited
23 November 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Coverage Cluster’s Performance
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Stoc ks Symbol Pric e 1 Ye a r 1 Ye a r
2 3 - Nov- 18 1M 3 M 6 M 12 M CYTD High Low
KSE- 10 0 Inde x 4 0 ,8 6 9 .2 8 8 .4 - 3 .7 - 4 .4 1.5 1.0 4 6 ,6 3 7 .6 3 6 ,6 6 3 .4
Automobile a nd Pa rts
Indus Motors INDU 1348.82 6.1 - 10.0 - 16.3 - 22.4 - 19.7 1941.95 1030.62
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 243.95 8.1 - 18.9 - 46.5 - 52.1 - 51.0 539.41 205.45
Ce me nts
DG Khan Cement DGKC 104.68 25.1 - 13.2 - 19.5 - 22.8 - 21.7 171.58 81.45
Lucky Cement LUCK 532.44 30.7 - 7.8 - 5.4 3.7 2.9 723.19 395.87
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 51.96 39.3 - 11.1 - 22.8 - 26.8 - 24.1 87.40 35.66
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 25.15 19.2 - 3.0 - 1.8 - 9.4 0.6 31.87 19.24
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 54.58 30.2 7.7 0.3 - 12.3 - 13.5 79.30 37.63
Cherat Cement Limited CHCC 91.22 59.7 - 1.5 - 23.3 - 7.9 - 17.8 140.72 56.22
Gharibwal Cement Limited GWLC 18.86 10.2 - 12.9 - 18.2 - 19.7 - 21.8 31.22 16.48
Engine e ring
Amreli Steel Ltd ASTL 64.97 18.1 - 15.9 - 16.8 - 31.6 - 29.9 99.52 54.40
Fe rtilize rs
Dawood Hercules DAWH 130.85 32.6 9.5 6.2 10.2 17.0 137.58 95.31
Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 76.09 1.1 - 4.8 2.5 41.2 12.4 82.94 60.98
Engro Chemical ENGRO 330.00 10.5 - 3.1 9.8 28.7 20.1 350.22 253.43
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 34.00 - 5.0 0.0 19.3 10.7 10.1 37.93 26.83
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 39.99 17.1 - 0.1 3.1 12.4 12.5 44.81 31.03
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 99.55 12.6 - 2.8 0.8 20.1 25.8 103.68 73.73
Food Produc e rs
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 83.01 0.4 - 11.1 - 13.9 1.3 3.4 105.73 70.19
Ca ble & Ele c tric a l Goods
Pak Elektron Limited PAEL 32.49 20.5 - 7.0 - 12.6 - 41.3 - 31.6 61.85 21.96
Oil & Ga s
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 143.79 - 2.0 - 6.2 - 11.1 - 8.6 - 11.7 177.31 143.79
Pak Oilfields POL 480.48 - 10.3 - 24.0 - 28.4 - 22.5 - 19.1 707.34 480.48
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. PPL 163.67 - 4.1 - 22.5 - 23.6 - 16.6 - 20.5 222.96 163.67
Pakistan State Oil PSO 272.33 16.7 - 20.6 - 13.7 - 11.7 - 7.1 352.13 213.74
Attock Petroleum Ltd. APL 498.31 16.8 - 18.7 - 16.5 - 14.6 - 4.7 639.36 413.75
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 215.01 - 18.9 - 27.3 - 29.5 - 22.3 - 13.0 322.42 211.63
Powe r
Hub Power Co. HUBC 95.32 13.8 - 1.2 - 4.0 - 4.3 4.7 104.87 80.36
K- Electric Limited KEL 5.60 5.9 3.7 - 8.5 - 1.2 - 11.3 7.11 4.77
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 52.60 3.8 - 8.9 - 8.2 - 14.5 - 2.4 65.41 46.79
Pe rsona l Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 61.19 20.0 19.6 24.0 29.6 33.7 62.97 43.70
Nishat Mills NML 145.91 12.8 5.4 8.5 1.7 - 2.4 171.56 124.04
Ba nks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 103.14 10.9 - 3.2 5.8 28.8 21.4 109.95 76.72
Bank AlFalah BAFL 49.80 6.0 - 11.5 0.8 22.4 17.2 58.94 38.15
Habib Bank Limited HBL 136.65 9.2 - 11.3 - 21.9 - 17.4 - 18.2 218.99 125.10
MCB Bank Limited MCB 200.02 12.7 - 0.7 - 1.2 - 2.6 - 5.8 236.56 177.16
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 49.71 3.1 - 2.4 - 0.9 13.1 2.4 53.78 43.01
United Bank Ltd UBL 139.13 2.3 - 14.2 - 18.9 - 18.2 - 26.0 215.16 131.28
Absolute Pe rforma nc e (%)
9
AKD Securities Limited
23 November 2018
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Economic Snapshot
Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research
End Month Data Units Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18
Monetary Rates
T-Bills - 3M % 5.99 5.99 6.21 6.26 6.26 6.24 6.26 6.76 7.28 7.73
T-Bills - 6M % 6.01 6.01 5.98 6.23 6.23 6.35 6.35 6.85 7.38 7.84
T-Bills - 12M % 5.91 5.92 6.00 6.28 6.28 6.25 6.38 6.9 7.53 8.05
PIB 10Y % 8.29 8.34 8.42 8.57 8.74 8.56 8.63 8.98 9.6 9.93
KIBOR 6M % 6.18 6.21 6.23 6.44 6.51 6.25 6.34 6.73 7.31 7.79
Discount rate % 6.25 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00
Policy rate % 5.75 5.75 6.0 6.0 6.25 6.00 6.50 6.50 7.50 7.50
Inflation
Headline inflation % 4.0 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 5.2 5.8 5.8
Core inflation % 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.8 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.6 7.7
Food inflation % 2.4 3.8 3.7 2.2 0.1 (0.20) 1.0 3.0 3.5 3.3
External Indicators
Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 1,974 1,977 1,971 1,902 2,231 2,133 2,144 1887 1,646 2,017
Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 4,898 4,910 5,607 4,797 5,280 5,066 5,814 5694 4,838 4,992
Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (2,924) (2,933) (3,636) (2,895) (3,049) (2,933) (3,670) (3,807) (3,192) (2,975)
Export (SBP) 2,546 2,464 2,111 2,059 2,305 2,246 2,266 2,012 2,009 n.a
Import (SBP) 5,346 5,140 4874 4,334 4,943 4,949 5,166 5,133 5,566 n.a
Trade Deficit (SBP) (2,800) (2,676) (2,763) (2,275) (2,638) (2,703) (2,900) (3,121) (3,557) n.a
Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,577 1,724 1,639 1,672 1,773 1,651 1,771 1,594 1,929 2,037
Current Account US$ (mn) (1,441) (1,256) (1,617) (1,241) (1,237) (1,947) (2,011) (1,976) (2,200) n.a
Banking Sector
Deposits PkR (bn) 11,969 12,362 12,002 11,933 12,571 12,277 12,258 13,063 12,551 n.a
Advances PkR (bn) 6,280 6,530 6,556 6,629 6,812 6,839 7,046 7,362 7,336 n.a
Investments PkR (bn) 8,475 8,542 7,637 8,127 6,853 7,784 6,733 8,179 7,785 n.a
W. A. lending rate % 7.81 7.74 7.72 7.99 7.60 7.75 7.74 7.85 8.08 n.a
W. A. deposit rate % 2.91 2.89 2.89 2.92 2.95 2.91 2.92 3.00 3.15 n.a
Spread rate % 4.90 4.85 4.83 5.07 4.65 4.84 4.83 4.85 4.93 n.a
Public Finance
Tax collection PkR (mn) 271,046 416,068 273,497 262,464 370,224 294,666 352,501 567,132 n.a n.a
Direct taxes PkR (mn) 98,873 188,476 95,706 89,631 152,524 95,011 125,791 314,441 n.a n.a
Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 172,173 227,592 177,791 172,833 217,700 199,655 226,710 252,691 n.a n.a
Currency
Fx Reserves US$ (mn) 18,774 20,154 18,957 18,317 17,796 17,540 15,977 16,407 16,891 16,370
USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 105.44 109.13 110.53 110.55 111.73 115.60 115.61 119.57 124.83 124.08
10
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS
This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information, opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.
This report is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. It is for information purposes only and is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular invest-ment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD Securities Limited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained therein.
Subject to any applicable laws and regulations, AKD Securities Limited, its affiliates or group companies or individuals connected with AKD Securities Limited may have used the information contained herein before publication and may have positions in, may from time to time pur-chase or sell or have a material interest in any of the securities mentioned or related securities or may currently or in future have or have had a relationship with, or may provide or have provided investment banking, capital markets and/or other services to, the entities referred to herein, their advisors and/or any other connected parties.
AKD Securities Limited (the company) or persons connected with it may from time to time have an investment banking or other relationship, including but not limited to, the participation or investment in commercial banking transaction (including loans) with some or all of the issuers mentioned therein, either for their own account or the account of their customers. Persons connected with the company may provide corporate finance and other services to the issuer of the securities mentioned herein, including the issuance of options on securities mentioned herein or any related investment and may make a purchase and/or sale of the securities or any related investment from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent.
This document is being distributed in the United State solely to "major institutional investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each U.S. person that receives this document by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it: is a "major institutional investor", as so defined; and understands the whole document. Any such person wishing to follow-up any of the information should do so by contacting a registered representative of AKD Securities Limited.
The securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some states in the U.S. or in some countries.
Any recipient, other than a U.S. recipient that wishes further information should contact the company.
This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose.
Analyst Certification We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.
AKD Research Team
Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage
Usman Zahid +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Executive Director Research
Hamza Kamal +92 111 253 111 (603) [email protected] Banking
Ali Asghar Poonawala +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] OMCs & Automobiles
Waqas Imdad Ali +92 111 253 111 (634) [email protected] Cements & Fertilizer
Umer Farooq +92 111 253 111 (602) [email protected] Textiles & Steel
Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis
Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production
Tariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) [email protected] Library Operations
23 November 2018