p3 january 2005 class 8: ism key trends and laws from past to future
TRANSCRIPT
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Key Trends and Laws
From Past to Future
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Same Old Story:The IT Adoption Challenge
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
IT is Very Difficult
30% of IT projects are cancelled before completion 75% deficient in meeting user requirements 98% among large (>$10m) ones fail to
meet meet requirements, time, and budget
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Old Story, New Focus:IT and Organizational Impact
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Beyond the Efficiency Battle
• Auto-mation• Efficiency
versus
• Info-mation• Innovation•Flexibility•Culture change
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Changes inTechnology Skills
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
IT Sophistication
• From 70% analogs, to 70% digitals
• Knowledgeable about desktop PCs, shopping on Internet, word processing, e-mail, mobiles, PDAs,…
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
…but rapid technical skills obsolescence
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Technology Costs: Two Continuous Trends
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
The Cost of Computers
Year Cost
1964 $10.000.000
2000 $10
2005 $1
2020 $0,01
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Real Telephone Cost: New York - San Francisco
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Actual PricesTrend: 1915-1999Trend: 1984-1999Trend: 1994:1999
Cost of one minute call in 2004 $
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
…But Total IT Costs Rising
• The McKean IT Paradox: Technology is 20% of total costs and effort:
The box costs 20%, the wrap up (implementation, support, maintenance, etc) costs 80%
• From IT to Services
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Always There:Aged Old IT
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Legacy Systems
• More than 50% of corporate data are in old (i.e. 30 years old) systems (the “legacy systems”)
• IT consists of 1000s of legacy systems forming a spaghetti chart
• Integration is always a major technical capability challenge
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Coming Up:The World of a Single, Global
Computer Language
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Standards and Global Interconnectivity
Towards a common language: making machines talk to each other
• The extended enterprise: “Cisco is a node in an interconnected global network” – 2002: $18 billion in b2b Internet sales, 65% Internet
facilitated shipments, 82% of customer service on Internet
• IT becomes an outward-facing department• Applications (web services) available over the
internet
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
The new IT: From T to I
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Information Over-Overload• An average novel is about 10-6 (0.0000001) TB
• The U.S. Library of Congress is around 10 TB
• The worldwide production of information in 2002
was 5 million TB
• 30 billion emails sent daily in 2002, equals to
440.000 TB information production annually
• 530.000 TB of internet information in 2002
• A bank that took 10 years in the 80’s to accumulate
10 TB of data, now does this in less than 9 months
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Continuous Improvements:Technology Evolution
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Moore’s Law
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Gilder’s Bandwidth Law
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Download of “The Matrix” DVD
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Metcalf’s Law
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
The Singularity Point
Moore’sLaw
Metcalf’sLaw
Gilder’sLaw
Computing Power
Network Nodes
Connection Speed
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Coming Up Soon: The “Disappearing” Computer,
Ubiquitous Computing
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Transforming Products with IT
2000
network
1960s
hardware
1980s
software
hardware hardware
software
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
High
Beyond Standalone Products
Profitablegrowth potential
Low Product platform
Software + Network
Services
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
Transforming Products: The Car Example
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
“A Car is a Java Machine on Wheels”
ConvenienceFun/Image
Multi-mediacontent
Multi-mediacontent
Autoinsurance
Autoinsurance
Safety
Airbagdeployment
Airbagdeployment
Doorunlock
Doorunlock
Theftdetection
Theftdetection
Emergencyservices
Emergencyservices
RemoteDiagnostics
RemoteDiagnostics
E-MailV-Mail
E-MailV-Mail
Trafficreports
Trafficreports
Customcontent
Customcontent
Cellularcalling
Cellularcalling
Conciergeservices
Conciergeservices
UserProductivity
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
And Never Forget: The Three Fundamental Laws of
Technology
Class 8: ISM P3 January 2005
The Three Fundamental IT Laws
1. Technology evolves, technology’s use evolves, people adapt
2. It is easy to change technology, it is difficult to change people, it is crucial to find the balance between the two (i.e. PETs versus KNETs, Organizations versus Society)
3. The impact (value/cost) of IT is 1. Measurable (hard) and non-measurable (soft)2. First order and second order (transformative
and unexpected)